The year's predictions - reviewed

                     1st  Arsenal         3rd    2nd 2nd +1

    2nd Manchester City         4th 1st 1st -1

    3rd Manchester United         14th 13th 3rd =

    4th Aston Villa         16th 9th 6th +2

    5th Liverpool         2nd 6th 5th =

    6th Bournemouth         7th 4th 8th +2

    7th Sunderland         17th 10th 10th +3

    8th Brighton         13th 8th 14th +6

    9th Brentford         12th 12th 7th -2

    10th Chelsea         1st 3rd 4th -6

    11th Fulham         15th 15th 11th =

    12th Newcastle         6th 7th 9th -3

    13th Everton         8th 16th 12th -1

    14th Leeds         20th 19th 15th +1

    15th Crystal Palace         10th 5th 13th -2

    16th Nottingham Forest         9th 14th 17th +1

    17th Tottenham Hotspur         5th 11th 16th -1

    18th West Ham         19th 18th 18th =

    19th Burnley         18th 17th 19th =

                           20th Wolves         11th 19th 20th  =

So, this is a summary of the predictions I made over the course of this season as to where everybody would end up. The first batch were made in mid-September, four weeks into the new season. My second attempt to see the future was made at the one-third point, just as we entered December. And the final version was undertaken at the two-thirds point, straight after Gameweek 26 in early February. [The final figure in red shows how far the actual final position differed from my last forecast in February.]

As you can see, by February, things had settled down somewhat, and it was becoming easier to see, in most cases, where teams were going to end up (despite the extreme closeness of the mid-table battle throughout most of the season - which meant that some teams could still have risen or fallen quite some distance even on the final weekend). The great majority of my predictions then were within 1 or 2 places of the team's actual league finish, and I got Manchester United, Liverpool, and - strangely - Fulham exactly right, as well as the bottom three. But of course, that didn't take much doing... My initial predictions at the start of the season, and even at the beginning of December were wildly off in many cases!

At the beginning of the year, I'd thought Manchester City might struggle with their 'rebuild' even more than Liverpool (and that looked quite prescient for a while, as they did get off to a pretty rocky start). But as they started to get their shit together around the middle of the season, and we started to see the potential of Doku and Cherki more regularly, I remained cautiously optimistic that they had the quality to overhaul Arsenal's significant points-lead on them. (I counselled at the turn of the year that it was likely to remain a very close race until the end of the season, and that it would be rash to assume that either of the two front-runners was a clear favourite [although, just five or six weeks later, I was forced to concede that Arsenal may have got decisively on top...]; ultimately, it was City faltering at the death rather than Arsenal finishing especially strongly [well, that, and the unfortunate VAR farce in the final minute at West Ham in GW36!] which clinched the championship.) I maintained that optimism - though with decreasing confidence! - until the last weeks, and ultimately proved to be wrong.

I had begun the year by anticipating that United, under the disastrous Ruben Amorim, could well finish down in the bottom third again; and I think that might well have been the case, if they'd stuck with that failing manager any longer. But the Carrick transformation in January was immediate and dramatic, and I'm pleased that I was so quick to appreciate that, and to start backing them for a much higher finish.

Liverpool, despite their 'rebuild' difficulties, I had expected to be almost as good as last year, and to probably be somewhere in the title conversation again; but I fairly quickly assessed their true level, as the season quickly unravelled for them. (Perspective is important: they had a terrible season, by their high standards - and still finished 5th!!)

I suppose Chelsea was my most embarrassing misjudgement. After their superb performance in last summer's Club World Cup, I was prepared to back them - admittedly somewhat optimistically - as possible title-winners. That fell apart immediately, with long-term injuries for Colwill and Palmer, and Maresca losing his way with his tactics in the Premier League. But there were signs of a possible resurgence initially under Liam Rosenior (remember when everyone was bringing Joao Pedro into their FPL squads around the turn of the year - and the likes of Enzo Fernandez, Cole Palmer, and Marc Cucurella too?); alas, that all fell apart very quickly as well, and Chelsea ended up having nearly as bad a season as Spurs. Now, Spurs were another team I got all wrong. I had quite liked some of their signings. I thought the strength of their backline was a solid foundation for a strong campaign. I thought Frank might suit them better than Postecoglou. I thought Maddison and Simons and Solanke and Richarlison might have big seasons. But everyone got injured - and Thomas Frank proved to be an utter disaster: they ended up doing even worse than last year, and only escaped relegation by the skin of their teeth. I had recognised how much trouble they were in by mid-season, but even in February, I didn't anticipate that they'd plunge right down into the relegation places.

Villa were the other team I got badly wrong at the start of the year: I thought they'd over-performed the previous season, and that without any major new signings over the summer, they were likely to have a big struggle this year. I wasn't entirely wrong; they did have some major fluctuations in form, and Ollie Watkins failed to find his scoring boots for most of the season; but Emery again proved shrewd at wringing the most out of his limited resources. Having rather harshly suggested at the start that Villa might plunge into the bottom third, I progressively revised my expectations for them upward - but even late on, I didn't anticipate them getting up into 4th place. Sunderland were the other team who most strongly out-performed my original expectations for them: I had thought they would struggle to escape relegation, but I soon saw that they were much the best of this year's promoted sides and would probably survive quite comfortably, even rising into the mid-table - though I never foresaw that they would claw their way as high as 7th by the end.

The Three B's, Bournemouth, Brentford, and Brighton, all had somewhat up-and-down seasons which made it particularly difficult for anyone to guess where they might end up - although my predictions homed in on them pretty well. Bournemouth ended up slightly over-performing my expectations, and Brentford slightly under-performing them. But Brighton had such a yo-yo year, they kept catching me out: they had looked so bad in mid-season, I was imagining a bottom-third finish - but they managed to rally again. The same went for Fulham and Newcastle and Everton: a lack of consistency made it impossible to pin down a confident final prediction for them, but I ended up not too far off. Fulham ended up doing rather better than I'd initially expected - mainly thanks to that superb run of form Harry Wilson went on from around the middle of the season. Everton failed to capitalise on their strong start, but ended up doing not too badly - largely thanks to another superb season from Jordan Pickford (who seems to be hogging all of this year's 'Most Spectacular Saves' roundups, again). And I kept thinking that Eddie Howe was going to pull off the mid-season rally that he'd managed with Newcastle the previous year, and that Anthony Gordon was finally going to rediscover his form of the previous year - but somehow, it just never quite happened: another one of my big misses in these predictions!

Leeds I had initially expected to be possibly the weakest of the promoted sides, and they didn't do much to dispel that assessment in the early part of the season; and indeed, their great revival didn't start until December, just after I'd made the second of these sets of predictions; however, by February, I could appreciate the difference in them and was feeling confident they'd now stay up fairly comfortably.

Palace and Forest and Wolves were three teams I'd expected much better from; not surprisingly, after the way they'd finished the previous season. Wolves seemed to have such a good rapport with Vitor Pereira that I thought they'd be strong again this year, despite having lost some big players (they're a selling club: they lose their best players every year, and they've always seemed to be able to bounce back); I couldn't understand quite how they'd unravelled so badly - but as soon as that unravelling became apparent, I accepted the inevitable, that the start of the season had been so bad, they were effectively relegated before Christmas. Forest were undone by a shortage of new signings last summer to help them with their European campaign, some unfortunate injury problems (notably the loss of their talismanic striker, Chris Wood), and of course their owner's perverse decision to sack the manager who'd done so well with them the year before.... and to replace him with the disastrous Postecoglou... and then to have to replace him as well. At least they rallied well again at the end of the season. Palace I'd fancied to be able to withstand the loss of Eze, and to be able to finish comfortably mid-table again; and indeed they started so brightly that. a few months in, I was starting to think they could even nip into the last Champions League spot; but, alas, things progressively fell apart for them after that, with a raft of injuries and the mid-season departure of Guehi to City. Again, I had the measure of them by the start of February.

Burnley I had pegged as plucky-but-doomed, right from the get-go. West Ham too: I felt they'd only luckily, undeservedly escaped relegation in the last few years, and hadn't done anything to strengthen their squad this time; surely, at least one of the promoted sides would this time be good enough to put them in jeopardy - and so it proved.

So, not perfect crystal ball work, by any means - but not too bad. I am reasonably happy with these pronouncements. Let's see if I can do even better next season!

[And sorry, I have no idea what's gone wrong with the formatting up above. It displays as all neatly aligned in Blogger's supposedly WYSIWYG 'compose' screen, but keeps on getting scrambled when posted. Aaarrgh....]

A little bit of Zen (96)

"It's taken me all my life to learn what not to play."

Dizzy Gillespie

"You can never know what are the 'best' decisions to make. You just have to try to avoid making too many of the most obvious mistakes."

GW

 

This year's champion

First-time FPL manager Erik Ibsen, a Dane who supports Everton, was crowned this year's global champion, with a final total of 2,582 points (nearly 230 points lower than last year's winner - despite everyone probably getting at least 150 free extra points this year from the new 'defensive contributions' rule!). Well done to him!

Many long-time players of the game are irked that a debutant should grab the title at the first attempt. But he's obviously a very smart young guy (a medical student), and a genuine football fan who follows the Premier League closely (unlike the vast majority of the global hordes dabbling in the game, who don't generally even seem to know what fixtures are up next, and seem to treat the game as a very abstract form of gambling...). And he does say that he put in a lot of time planning his transfer moves, even plotting out possible player exchanges around turns in fixture-difficulty using an Excel spreadsheet.

Glancing through his Gameweek history, I get the impression that he's probably one of the worthier winners we've seen in quite some years. Of course, he enjoyed a massive amount of good fortune too; but he was generally making quite shrewd and well-informed decisions all the way through.

And he's turned out to be a pretty good illustration of most of the points I made a couple of weeks back on what really makes the difference in our FPL performance.

Now, he very much did not get off to a good start - at least, not in Gameweek 1: he was outside the top 75% after returning an abysmal 35 points in the opening week. But... he bravely played his Wildcard straight away to start sorting things out; and, amazingly enough, he pulled off a seemingly impossible fightback and was up into the top million by the end of Gameweek 4 - nearly in the top 500,000 the following week, inside the top 250,000 the week after that. So, he did conform to my general view of what constitutes a 'good start' - a platform for a possible record-breaking season - despite having a particularly miserable first gameweek. And he also vindicated my frequent advice that an early use of the Wildcard is sometimes useful and indeed necessary, if you have a very bad start to the season. (Although I would suggest that he was perhaps a bit over-hasty, dropping it in GW2, since we really don't know how things are going to pan out after just one gameweek, and this year GW1 was especially awful for very nearly everyone... There was nothing terribly wrong with his GW1 squad, and his post-Wildcard squad wasn't conspicuously better. So... maybe this wasn't in fact one of his 'better plays' in principle - although the results seem to have turned out for him.)

Indeed, it was almost continuous upward progress for Erik, after that shaky start: he only suffered 5 very modest 'red arrow' position drops during the rest of the season! He'd cracked the top 10,000 by GW10, and the top 1,000 by GW15; he entered the top 100 after GW21, and never dropped out of it again - hitting the lead in GW29, and holding it right through to the end of the season (beating last year's champion's record streak of holding the lead for the final 8 gameweeks).

He most definitely did get very lucky with his captaincy choices, amassing a stunning total of 611 points from his captains (although he did have a very bad run of returns from Haaland around the turn of the year!). This was not quite the year's highest number for this, but well up there among the top handful. It's probably nearly double the 'average' return from armband picks, and perhaps 30%-40% more than a 'good score' would usually be. (So, if Erik only beat you by 150 or 200 points, it was probably almost entirely down to that!)

He also got astonishingly lucky with injuries - as evidenced by the fact that he was regularly able to roll his transfers for two or three weeks at a time, to make strategic multiple switches,.... and didn't have to take a 'hit' (spend points for an additional transfer) even once. Again, for most managers, using 'hits' occasionally to fill an injury gap (not just in the squad, but in the starting eleven) is unavoidable, and it is typical to have to resort to them at least 10-15 times per season. Not to have needed any is absolutely extraordinary!

I didn't notice any particular good fortune with buying players just ahead of short-lived hot streaks - although it was perhaps a little fortuitous to be on Caicedo at the start of the season, when he picked up a few (very untypical) goals; and to pick Anthony Gordon, for one week in GW31 (before 'dead-ending' into his Wildcard the following week), when he produced a 10-pointer (the last of his only 4 decent hauls of the season!); and to be on Alex Scott against Arsenal in GW32, when he returned 12 points.  And he did get on Guimaraes, Wirtz, and Wilson very promptly when they hit form, but he deserves some credit there.

And yes, his chips almost all worked out pretty well (probably a bit above average, but not outstanding): he got a 16-point haul for his first Triple Captain (Haaland against Burnley in GW6: a popular choice, but not by any means the unarguably optimal-looking one, as Burnley were playing fairly well at that point, and Leeds and West Ham were looking rather more tempting opponents to stick multiple goals past), and an 11-point return for his second (Haaland in GW36 against Brentford, again not the most obvious 'soft target' for him at the back end of the season...). He got an 18-point lift from his first Bench Boost in GW10; his second, however, in GW33 was a bit of a disaster, yielding only a 10-point lift (Joao Pedro missed the game, and Gabriel returned a rare nul-pointer), although he still had a very good week overall. His first Free Hit in GW13 was also fairly successful, yielding him 30 points above the global average - in a generally very low-scoring week; the second, in the big Blank Gameweek of GW34 was a much more limited success (poor points from his Liverpool players, and Bowen left on the bench!), but still a handy 16 points above the miserable global average that week.

It was a far from flawless performance: you see one or two 'stinkers' in his squad at most stages of the season; and he really left a lot of big hauls on his bench. And he bought Phil Foden just before Christmas - straight after his two-week hot streak had finished!! Yes, even the global champ suffers some bad decisions and rough breaks. Overall, though, he produced an uncannily steady performance throughout the season. It will be interesting to see where he finishes next year....

Makes you want to GIVE UP, doesn't it?

 

For the past four or five years, I've been running an experimental side-team, with a severe self-imposed budget cap. I started off at just 75 million, but a couple of years ago, upped it to 80 million. (At least, at the start of the season. I allow myself to take advantage of any growth in squad value, but always keep at least 20 million of my budget unspent.) In Cole Palmer's debut season for Chelsea - when it was actually possible to afford the best player in the game, even with this severe restriction - this team actually did modestly well overall, top 2 million or so. And every season, there are at least a few gameweeks where it does spectacularly well - putting my regular selection to shame.

And so too this year: my best score of the entire season, by far, came in Gameweek 33, with a 141-point total haul for this team - including a very handy 39 points coming from my subs with the Bench Boost (a total lift of 23 points, because, on this showing, Gross and Flemming really should have been playing; I only count my 4 lowest-scoring players in assessing the impact of the BB chip).

I find this exercise is a useful reminder that it is - to some extent - possible to get by pretty well without the big-name, top-priced players. (Only to an extent: while a super-low-budget team like this can have some extraordinarily good weeks, and occasionally even an extraordinarily good month, it's unlikely to climb out of the bottom third overall. Giving up that much budget is just too constraining!)  And also as a reminder that there is almost always some excellent value to be found among the cheaper options. Players like Lewis-Potter, Aaronson, Gross, and Flemming were well worth having in any team this year, for spells when they were in a good run of form. (You just wouldn't want all of them, all season,.... and no Fernandes or Haaland...)

It is a funny old game, indeed.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 38

 

These weekly 'summaries' have been getting a bit too involved - and excessively time-consuming for me! - so I've been aiming to keep them briefer recently. I made just about zero progress on that resolution for the first few weeks, but.... now I've hit upon a new 'format', which might help: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: 

Red cards not awarded:  

Penalties awarded: 

Penalties not awarded:  Everton shuld have had a penalty in the dying moments of the first-half, when Bentancur gratuitously barged Tarkowski in the back; VAR 'had a look' and somehow thought nothing of it?! Another astonishingly bad decision - and one that may have sealed West Ham's relegation.

Tight/dubious offsides: Jean-Philippe Mateta looked just offside for his late consolation goal - but apparently wasn't. Ollie Watkins was - belatedly - flagged offside for his second, but was eventually judged to have been played on by Ruben Dias's foot. And Phil Foden's effort was also ruled out - though the SAOT graphic appeared to show him onside (and if he was off, it can only have been by the thickness of the shorts on his bum!! it is ridiculous that the technology is seeking to make judgements on such ridiculously slim, invisible margins).

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed: 

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Too many to enumerate! Arsenal - rather to my surprise - changed virtually their entire starting line-up! And Oliver Glasner fielded a back-three that included no centre-backs.... Nuno brought in Walker-Peters to replace Wan-Bissaka at right-back for West Ham. Pep also rotated almost everyone, with only Semenyo and Bernardo Silva surviving from his 'usual' eleven, and Haaland not involved at all. Brighton dropped Baleba and Minteh for Wieffer and Milner, while United brought in Mazraoui, Mount, and Dorgu for Dalot, Casemiro, and Cunha.

Alex Scott was about the only player to be left out this week owing to a late injury problem.

Near misses:  Gabriel Jesus hit an early effort against the post after just 4 minutes; he made amends with a slick finish to put the Gunners ahead 40 minutes later. 

Kevin thundered a free-kick against the woodwork from nearly 30 yards out, but a goal resulted for Fulham anyway as Diop was able to head home the rebound.

Mo Salah whipped a cheeky free-kick - which everyone had been expecting Szoboszlai to take - against the left-hand post early on.

Joao Palhinha headed firmly against the near-post - but the ball rebounded kindly straight back to him, and he was able to prod the ball back towards goal. Yet again, Spurs seemed to be guilty of excessive relief and premature celebration - a lead is not a win, as they were painfully reminded last week; this time they got away with it, just.

The absurdly talented Mateus Mané ended a solo run with a fierce curler that smacked against the far post. Later on, Burnley midfielder Florentino also crashed one against the post, although that looked as if it had been intended as a cross.

Big misses/big saves: Dango Ouattara got a free header on the edge of the six-yard box near the end at Anfield, but put it miles over the bar; that cost Brentford their chance of European football.

Matz Sels had to make a sharp save from one of Kroupi's trademark 18-yard curlers. And Amad Diallo almost claimed a fourth goal for United with a fierce drive from the edge of the box that was well parried by Verbruggen.

Lukas Nmecha set up Dominic Calvert-Lewin nicely in the first-half, but the centre-forward swept his effort straight at Hermansen. In the other relegation decider, Castellanos got through one-on-one in the box with the keeper, but lost his footing just as he was trying to get off the shot (if West Ham were to have survived, I thought he would have to be the man to supply a goal for them; and he did eventually give them their breakthrough with a header from a corner). Callum Wilson wasted a chance to put the Hammers 3-0, taking far too long to get his shot off - although Darlow did make a good save from his eventual effort; shortly afterwards, he made amends with a fine shot from 25 yards out. The most decisive action of the day was probably Kinsky's flying fingertip save from Tyrique George's fierce, dipping shot.

Outstanding goals: Tom Cairney clinched the win for Fulham with a screamer from 25 yards.

Outstanding performances: 

Big mistakes: Cole Palmer finally got back on the scoresheet with a crisp low shot from just outside the box, but Robin Roefs will be disappointed that he couldn't get a stronger hand to it; this was a rare 'mistake' from one of the season's outstanding goalkeepers.

Bad luck/good luck: 

FPL weirdness:  Caoimhin Kelleher apparently notched 7 'saves' against Liverpool (I didn't see that many on 'Match of the Day'), which, in a dull game, was enough for 2 bonus points!!

Unexpected results:  Everton and Leeds, with nothing of their own to fight for, were really quite poor; this was not perhaps entirely unexpected, but it was not what most fans had been hoping for: Spurs and West Ham really should have struggled to win those games.

It was a particularly drab final day this year, with even the teams that 'had something to play for' still being mostly rather lacklustre: only Manchester United and Sunderland finished with a really good performance, and only Forest v Bournemouth produced a really good match. Bruno Fernandes, Ollie Watkins and Jarrod Bowen are the only widely-owned players making the FPL 'Team of the Week', and the global average was a wretchedly low 41 points. Apart from the highly consequential missed penalty award for Everton, and a few extremely close offside calls, there wasn't much in the way of contentious refereeing this week. But the huge number of unpredictable player rotations, and the generally low level of performance must, unfortunately, make this another 6 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW 38 (25/26)

 

And so we face the final curtain..... Gameweek 38 is always a bit of a lottery, as there are so many 'dead rubbers'. The title race is decided, and the relegation places very nearly so; Arsenal and Aston Villa might be a bit tired after celebrating their trophy wins this week, while City might be feeling a bit deflated about letting their title challenge fizzle - and about the imminent departure of their superstar manager. Arsenal and Palace have European finals coming up, so might be giving managed minutes to some of their star players. And with the World Cup just around the corner, a nervousness about possible last-minute injuries might take the edge off some players' games. One wonders also how Friday's announcement of the England squad may affect some players: will Palmer, Gibbs-White, Bowen and Calvert-Lewin be depressed at their - unexpected, possibly unfair - omission, or will they have a chip on their shoulder about it and be fired up to show that Tuchel was wrong about them?  It's very, very difficult to anticipate what team line-ups are going to be, or how well anyone's going to play.

However, the exceptionally tight midfield pack we've seen all season means that there's still quite a tussle going on for the European places. Even Everton and Newcastle in 11th and 12th were very nearly still in contention (to have a chance, they would have needed all three of the teams above them to lose their final match, and that can't happen as Sunderland and Chelsea are drawn against each other): all the positions from 4th to 10th could yet change. And of course Premier League survival is riding on the outcome of the Spurs v Everton and West Ham v Leeds games.

But there are fairly few new injuries this week, so this can be a quick last roundup of the year!

I have been trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

I've recently discovered this additional resource, the weekly Predicted Lineups from Fantasy Football Edits. My longtime standby for this sort of news, Fantasy Footall Scout, does usually provide some explanatory commentary on its predictions, even including reminders of the key injury concerns, and sometimes also some discussion of possible alternate selections; so, if you like a bit more detail with your 'probable lineups' for the week, that could still be the preferable roundup to look at. But because FPL Edits is so stripped-down, it's rather more straightforwardly accessible, easier to scan through quickly; and I think it's also perhaps a tad more reliable with its expected formations and lineups, and a little quicker to update.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 38?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Emi Martinez apparently played through Wednesday's Europa League Final with a dislocated finger, so will probably give way to Marco Bizot on Sunday.

Malo Gusto missed last week's game against Spurs with a training knock, and is a doubt again for this week. However, Joao Pedro, who was also absent last week with a tight hamstring, has apparently been back in training at the end of the week and is expected to be available.

Chris Richards suffered ligament damage to his ankle against Brentford last week, so will be out for quite a while; this leaves Palace seriously short at the back.

Brenden Aaronson came off with a knock against Brighton last week; it didn't seem too serious, but there's been no further word on whether he's recovered.

Jeremie Frimpong and Alexander Isak were missing last week with minor injuries, but might possibly be available again for the final game, at least off the bench.

Sandro Tonali came off last week with a hamstring problem; Eddie Howe had initially thought that would certainly rule him out, but it seems the issue isn't too serious and he might possibly be able to make a return.

Omar Alderete came off with a knock against Everton last week, and looks unlikely to be available for the Chelsea game.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Ryan Christie, Joachim Andersen, and Dan Ballard are still serving out three-match bans.

Max Dowman is unlikely to be involved for Arsenal this weekend, as he's in the middle of his GCSEs.

And it has been decided that last week's home game at Old Trafford would be Casemiro's last appearance for the club.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

There is much agitation in the FPL community about the prospect of Arsenal and Manchester City, in particular, possibly indulging in mass rotations this week. It's also a concern with Crystal Palace, who have their Europa Conference League Final in Leipzig this Wednesday against Rayo Vallecano - although they perhaps don't have that much scope for rotation, due to a limited squad and a lot of injuries at present. My feeling is that Arteta is proud and a perfectionist, and that he will thus want to end the season as strongly as possible (and will probably want to treat the Palace game as a valuable warm-up for next Saturday's clash with PSG). And Pep will also want to go out on a high note; and several of his players may perhaps be additionally inspired to produce goals to give him a happy send-off. But, of course, Pep Roulette is always a hazard, and since City have two elevens of almost equal ability, it is very hard to know who will get the start this week. I have a hunch that Khusanov and O'Reilly could make way for the longer established Dias and Gvardiol, and that perhaps Marmoush might get a start over Doku or Semenyo.

Many FPL managers are also fancying a punt on one or both of the relegation battlers, Spurs and West Ham. But there's a reason why they're in that predicament, and I fancy they'll both wilt under the pressure and lose quite badly - with Spurs staying up by the skin of their teeth, only because West Ham suddenly faltered again in the last few games.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

If I were going to bring in one player from the relegation candidates, it would be West Ham's Taty Castellanos, who should be buzzed after scoring what might be the 'Goal of the Season' last week. However, among the thus-far unregarded forwards, Newcastle's Will Osula has been in even better form of late.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Not quite what we wanted...

 

When Thomas Tuchel selected his first England squad 14 months ago, I observed that the England manager's job is a thankless task, and that invariably every fan will have his own perfect selection in mind and will carp at every variation from that Platonic ideal, however trivial.

However, the just-announced World Cup squad has a few oddities in it that are so egregious, it has got the majority of England fans not just mildly irked, but seriously dismayed, even outraged.

I don't take issue with as many of the choices as some (the compiler of the 'Rejects XI' above cannot seriously have supposed that all of them were going to get a call-up??), but I fear there are a few really big errors in it - which may cost us dearly in the tournament.

So, I'll quickly run through my take on the good, the bad, and the ugly of Thomas Tuchel's picks...

Expected, justified omissions

Not even Nick Pope's mum thinks he's one of the best three goalkeepers in England any more; and his club manager no longer seems sure if he's even better than Aaron Ramsdale - so, there's absolutely no surprise that he didn't make the cut (especially after a season disrupted by injury). The goalkeeping line-up is surely the one part of the squad where there's really no controversy at all.

Trent Alexander-Arnold, rightly or wrongly, was already being sidelined at England under Southgate; and Tuchel immediately made it clear that he has no interest in using him. I think - somewhat controversially - that this is the correct decision. For me, Trent is player whose excellences occupy a very narrow spectrum, and who thus needs to have a team built around him if he is to flourish (he needs hard-working midfielders who will cover for him when he's caught out of position defensively, and very quick forward players who can exploit his long balls over the top). Klopp was able to do that at Liverpool; but I don't think an England manager can.

Harry Maguire, I've said on here before, is 'yesterday's man'. He's given excellent service to England over the years, and he's still a fine player. But he's obviously not our first-choice starter any more; and I fear he's too big an ego to accept merely a back-up role in the squad. Likewise, Luke Shaw, although he has - surprisingly - been an ever-present for Manchester United this season, has clearly declined a bit in fitness from his peak a few years ago, and no longer looks like an obvious prospect for us at left-back... even though that is, currently, the position in which we have perhaps the thinnest cover.

Phil Foden is a bit of an unfortunate omission, but not an unexpected one. He doesn't seem to be securely in Pep's favour, and has played less than 2,000 Premier League minutes this season. I fear that his confidence has been broken by his manager's lack of trust in him (and/or that there may be reasons, unknown to the public, why that lack of trust is justified...). And alas, he's never really managed to make his mark with England, and he had a particularly ineffectual tournament in the Euros two summers ago. In an area of the pitch where we are rather spoiled with an over-abundance of talent to choose from, it really is not surprising that he didn't quite make the cut.

Unfortunate omissions

I was a little bit of a sceptic about Levi Colwill a couple of years or so ago, but he impressed me enormously last season, and I think he could become a mainstay of the England team. For that reason, I would have been tempted to make a place for him in this squad, even though he's unlikely to start, and is probably going to be a little ring-rusty after his long injury absence. I also think we need a specialist left-back as cover for Nico O'Reilly, and that slot really ought to have gone to Lewis Hall; he might not have the adaptability of Spence or Livramento, but he is more consistent, and offers much more of an attacking threat.

Jarrad Branthwaite and Myles Lewis-Skelly (and perhaps also Rico Lewis) will no doubt enjoy an England career at some point, but unfortunately they just haven't had enough first-team minutes this year to be in contention for this squad.

Adam Wharton and Alex Scott are perhaps too young and inexperienced to be relied upon yet as regular starters, but they are outstanding prospects for the future, and I would have liked to see space being made for at least one of them in this squad. I think that space could have been easily created by taking one or two fewer defenders.

Harvey Barnes, many people would say, has done enough this season to be considered for a call-up. It is unfortunate that Eddie Howe never seems to view him as an automatic starter, even when he's in hot goalscoring form, but he really has looked a much better prospect this year than his teammate Anthony Gordon; and, given that he's only likely to be called upon as a late substitute when we're chasing a game, his pace and finishing could surely be very valuable to us.

Questionable, but possibly justified inclusions

Tino Livramento undoubtedly has a lot of promise, but he has had too many injury problems this season (and is injured now - so might get replaced in the squad), and just hasn't had the opportunity to establish any settled form. His clubmate Lewis Hall looked a far stronger candidate to me; one suspects Livramento has only got the nod because of his ability to operate on either flank. This was presumably the decisive factor in Djed Spence's favour too. I have been impressed with Spence's development over the past couple of seasons, but I worry about his mental state after the appalling season Spurs have suffered; 'failure' can be contagious, and I would be very wary of bringing in players from relegated clubs (or clubs that have been floundering in that mire; I'm writing this the day before the season finale, so don't know if Spurs managed to escape the drop). I've said before that I like Dan Burn for his adaptability and his attitude; but he hasn't been a regular starter with Newcastle this season, and when he has played, it's been most often as a centre-back; when he has had a start at left-back, he's looked much less composed than he did a couple of seasons back when he was playing the role regularly, and has often been found out for pace. I can see taking Burn as a makeweight, because he'll be an inspiring presence off the pitch, and can provide emergency cover anywhere across the back-four (and possibly even in central midfield); but he does look perhaps the weakest of the defensive picks, and if you feel - as I do - that we're taking too many defenders, he's probably the one that should be cut. Though I really don't think we need both Livramento and Spence - so long as there are no lingering question-marks over Reece James's fitness.

John Stones is presumably included for his experience, and his adaptability (able to fill in at right-back, in an emergency, or even as a holding midfielder). And it's interesting that Tuchel apparently cites 'training data' as reassuring him in this choice: presumably his fitness levels appear to be strong, even though he's almost inevitably going to be short of full sharpness after playing so few competitive minutes this year. Though it seems a rather risky call, I can see the need for including someone with significant tournament experience in what is, mostly, a very young squad. The worry, I think, is that Tuchel likes him so much, he might actually be thinking of starting him. For me, Guehi and Konsa have established themselves as deserved first-choice starters, and we should be concentrating on building their partnership - one which could become the backbone of the team for the decade ahead.

Anthony Gordon has pace, aggression, adaptability; at his best, he's certainly an asset to the squad, and so I can see why Tuchel has stood by him. But he has had a very ropey season at Newcastle, rarely anywhere near his best; his club form does not justify his inclusion at the moment.

Bizarre inclusions

Jordan Henderson is now slow and injury-prone, and has only featured for Brentford half the time this past season. He surely can't be considered for anything more than the occasional token 10-minute run-out in internationals. And if he's been included simply for his dressing-room leadership.... surely we could have brought him along as a 'coach', rather than wasting a squad place??

Ivan Toney has been scoring for fun in the Saudi Pro League - but does that really count for anything? The overall competitive standard in that league is so low that your gran could probably score goals there. He surely can't have been included just for his penalty-taking prowess,... can he? Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Danny Welbeck must be scratching their heads in dismay: they've both had outstanding domestic seasons and notched some good goals against proper defences. There might be reasonable question-marks over their consistency and resistance to injury, but on recent form they should certainly have been in consideration. I think the last forward slot should have gone to the outstanding Jarrod Bowen. The only possible logic I can see for this choice is that Tuchel may be considering using Kane in a deeper position and starting Watkins ahead of him as the central striker; and, if so, you can see why he'd want another forward of closely similar profile to Watkins as a back-up for him. (Though in that case, I would still have gone for Calvert-Lewin.)  We shall see.

The really culpable errors

James Garner has had an outstanding season, and is clearly now our second-best holding midfield option; therefore, he was, I think, an absolutely essential pick as back-up for Elliot Anderson - and if Anderson should get injured, his omission might become one of our biggest regrets.

Morgan Gibbs-White has looked our most versatile and consistent central midfielder for the last few seasons; and I would have taken him to America ahead of Declan Rice (yes, I know what a great season he's had - but I stand by that: Rice is a jack-of-all-trades player, remarkably good at almost all aspects of the game.... but not quite the obvious first-choice for any one role or position) or Morgan Rogers, and certainly ahead of Jordan bloody Henderson.

Jarrod Bowen, I think, deserves a place for his workrate and his attitude, as well as for the fact that he offers a rather different profile to anyone else we have up front. I think that difference of style could prove valuable in games where we're still chasing a late goal. And in games (hopefully the majority!) where we're just sitting on a lead for the last 20 minutes, we can rely on his tenacious pressing to hinder an opponent from coming back at us. If he were being passed over for an obviously superior player, a player with an outstanding goalscoring record this season, then the decision would be less baffling; but to take Ivan Toney instead...?? That is a WTF?!

And of course, the really super-colossal blunder is leaving behind Cole Palmer - who is, quite simply, our best player,... and probably, in fact, the best playmaker in Europe. Tuchel's only proffered explanation seems to have been that "we don't need five No. 10s". No, indeed; but we probably do need to take at least three of them. And Palmer is by far the best of the candidates. Moreover, it is perfectly possible to play two '10s' (or 'false 9s') alongside each other. And most of our players who fit this role, like Palmer himself, are also able to operate a bit wider, coming in off the flanks; or, in the case of Bellingham and Gibbs-White, to play a bit deeper in central midfield. And ironically, two of the nominal No. 10s Tuchel has chosen... aren't really No. 10s at all: Bellingham is a sui generis play-anywhere-and-everywhere player, who's probably at his best breaking from deeper positions as an occasional late box-crasher; and Rogers, for Villa, generally starts out wide, and drifts into the half-space to attack the box, rather than dictating play from central areas. So, that 'too many to choose from' argument just doesn't hold water for me; there must be some other reason why our gaffer doesn't like him. But whatever it is, I think he's wrong; and this is the one selection decision that might cost us our chance of winning the tournament.

And finally.... my TWO unpopular exclusion suggestions!

Morgan Rogers and Declan Rice. Yes, I know, they're outstanding players, and I'm sure they'll do a decent job for us. It is looking rather as if Rogers, in fact, may be so favoured by Tuchel that he might be the preferred starter in the No. 10 role - even at the expense of Bellingham! But for me, he's just not quite good enough: he's had long spells at Villa - not just long passages in a game, but long runs of games - where he's been very ineffectual. He's not as good as Palmer or Eze at threading balls through into the box, he's not as good as Mainoo or Gibbs-White at carrying the ball forward through the midfield, he's not as good as Saka or Rashford at coming in off the wing to shoot at goal. And I wrote at some length about Rice the other day: I admire his qualities, but for me he's better as an attacking midfielder (and he just isn't going to get in contention there, because we have such a wealth of other talent - to the point where we can consider omitting the likes of Palmer and Foden and Bellingham!!); he has his shortcomings as a holding player, and for our central midfield positions, I'd much prefer Anderson and Garner, Mainoo and Wharton, Gibbs-White and even Bellingham.

It's not a terrible squad. And it's not that unexpected (apart from the omission of Palmer, and perhaps of Bowen). Let us cross our fingers and hope for the best!!!

The ultimate REFRAME

I was asked - yet again - on one of the forums the other week what my rank is. And instead of just ignoring the enquiry, or castigating the questioner as an ignorant lout, I came up with this flippant response.... which I find contains a kernel of important truth. This is not silly bragging or empty, delusional consolation; it is a valuable reminder of where our true focus should lie.

"I am FIRST in the only league that matters."

This is always true, for all of us. Because the only competition that truly matters is the struggle with ourselves - to do the best we can, and to constantly seek to improve on what that 'best' can be.

Fretting about your 'Overall Rank', or even your status in mini-leagues, is a VANITY of VANITIES. It is not what the game of FPL should really be about.

A little bit of Zen (95)

"Roads are made for journeys, not destinations."

Kong Qiu ('Confucius')

"Money's just something you throw off the the back of a train..."

Tom Waits - 'Long Way Home'

Money, after all, is just a crystallization of effort, a convenient medium for translating effort into different material benefits. But money, like effort, like all manifestations of the material world, is ephemeral: we use it, and it is gone forever. Nothing lasts; but the true value of a thing arises precisely from the fact that it can only be experienced for a fixed amount of time. The value of an FPL season is not found in the numbers recorded against your name at the end of it, but in the memories of all the doubts and struggles and difficult decisions grappled with over the past nine months.

What is Declan FOR....?

 

More than 18 months ago, I did a lengthy piece here on the blog about why I was unconvinced that Trent Alexander-Arnold could usefully fit into the England set-up. Now, I'm going to risk even greater derision and disparagement by attempting to make a similar case about Declan Rice. (In fact, I recall that I already did so, in outline, in a post from last Spring about my thoughts on the likely development of the England squad under the first few years of Thomas Tuchel's stewardship.)

And as with Trent, it's largely about him not being a style of player who fits any need I can see in the England team. He is undoubtedly a very, very good player; and he's found a very particular niche in the current Arsenal team - where he has come to seem essential to their success. But that does not mean that he would also be essential - or even necessary or useful - to England's success at this summer's World Cup.

I said in that earlier post, actually, that I could see Rice retaining a place in the squad for his value as a utility player and his off-field leadership. But I've shifted my view on that now. And again, it's not for any reason to do with his attributes; I still rate him very highly for those qualities. But I am increasingly convinced that - in an ideal world - he wouldn't any longer be a starter for us. And I fret that he might be too big a personality to accept merely a bit-part role in the squad, to play the dressing-room cheerleader as selflessly as someone like Conor Coady did. Even if he would, there's a greater fear that his presence would nevertheless have a disruptive influence by acting as a focus for any public and media discontent with our performances; I can foresee that if Rice were with the squad - after the season he's just had for Arsenal - there would be constant lobbying from others to reinstate him in the starting line-up.

I mentioned in that earlier post that I worried that, like Harry Kane, Declan Rice had been unfortunately pigeonholed by his physique. For me, he's always looked much more effective as a progressive midfielder, pushing up into the final third and trying to make things happen around the edge of the opposing box. But because he's so physically imposing, he's almost always been lumbered with a more defensive role in central midfeld. And yet the funny thing is that, despite his excellent reading of the game and his sometimes incisive tackling,... he's just not actually all that good at a pure holding role in the middle - at least not on his own. He was fine supporting Soucek at West Ham, or Partey, and now Zubimendi at Arsenal; but when he has to try to control that central space on his own - as he was during Partey's long absences a couple of years ago - he often gets found out.

And I'm afraid that the decisive emergence of Elliot Anderson and James Garner this season should effectively punt him to the sidelines of England selection. They are simply much better at the nitty-gritty of the holding midfield role than Rice is. I think their progressive passing is rather better too. (Arteta, with his obsession with 'control' in games, has not given Rice much leeway to develop the more creative aspects of his game. Much of the time, he wants to draw more on his defensive qualities, even when he's pressing forward. But even more of the time, he just wants him to sit a bit deeper and maintain possession by playing the ball sideways all the time.... It is not developing his vision for the more probing ball forward.)

There are other weaknesses in his game too. He's not great on the turn, not strong when receiving the ball under pressure, facing his own goal, not great at spinning away from a harrying opponent to open up the chance to start carrying the ball upfield. Kobbie Mainoo's way better than him in those aspects of the game. And if we're looking for someone who can put in an effective shift in deeper midfield, but still offer more creative potential through their range of passing, then... I think we have to try to start making use of Adam Wharton,... or Morgan Gibbs-White, or maybe Alex Scott.

For me, Declan Rice is a bit of a jack-of-all-trades type: he's very, very good at almost everything - but he isn't quite the best at any one thing. (Well, perhaps at set-piece delivery. But I don't think someone gets into the England team just for that. And we do have other excellent options there: Palmer, Saka, Foden, Gibbs-White...)

Also, I feel that his greatest strengths are probably in the attacking third - but he hasn't been given full opportunity to develop this dimension to his game in a very conservative Arsenal playing style where he's more often expected to be the gatekeeper than a lock-picker. And again, good as he is, is he really going to get in contention for one of our more advanced midfield roles - in competition with Palmer, Bellingham, Saka, Eze, Rashford, etc.??  Sorry, but I just can't see it.

It is particularly difficult to write this after Rice has had such an outstanding season - a season where he might in fact lift the two biggest trophies in club football. (I wrote this a few days ago, before we'd seen if the Gameweek 37 matches might settle the Premier League title race, or if Arsenal might somehow be letting that trophy slip from their fingers...)  I fully acknowledge that he's a great, great player, and that he's been playing sensational football this year. But he can be this great and still not quite be starting material for England: he's not our best holding midfielder (not even top three, I don't think), he's not our best option for a more creative central midfielder, and he's really not going to be considered among our top half dozen or so attacking midfield options.

So, absent an injury to Anderson or Garner or Mainoo or Wharton,... I wouldn't be taking Declan Rice to America this summer.

I'm pretty sure Tuchel will, and that he will probably start him alongside Anderson in a double-pivot. And I imagine that will work out OK; if... when we under-perform and crash out, it will probably be because Palmer or Bellingham or Kane or Saka, or one of the defenders, or even Jordan Pickford had a poor tournament, rather than some failing on Rice's part we could pin it on. But I still feel it would be a non-optimal selection, that our squad ought to be just that bit better without him.

Don't hate me, Arsenal fans. It's just an opinion.

Had we but world enough and time.....

 

.... we'd all win FPL one day!

I said last week, in my major post on what actually makes the most difference to your FPL season points total, that smart FPL managers should out-perform not-so-smart ones.... most of the time.

But alas, I'm not convinced that is true: at least, not as often as it should be, not over a single season - not in our unitary existence.

The thing is, with such a huge number of manager accounts in the game every year now, you're inevitably going to get a huge number of them that prosper by sheer dumb luck (even among 'zombie accounts' that are rarely or never active!). And because the impact of luck in our game is far greater than that of skill, that unfortunately means that a very large number of those who do so prosper will prosper so extravagantly that they will outperform a lot of the merely skillful managers in the game who haven't had any out-of-the-ordinary luck, and hence that... not all, but a very great many of the folks in the upper reaches of the rankings most years are likely to be not really very good at all, to have reached that eminence mostly or entirely by luck.

It is my belief that the truly smart FPL managers would only be able to convincingly display their superiority over the masses across a very long timeframe.

You do see some evidence of this, with some of the best long-time managers having now produced fairly consistently decent - though rarely or never outstanding - results over 10 or 15 or 20 years. But even for this to happen, for one's 'true average' level of attainment to emerge, for you to prove your ascendance over the majority of other managers in the game (many of whom will have averages buoyed up by one or two extraordinarily lucky seasons...), it will usually take many, many years - maybe, in some cases, too many years, more than one human lifetime.

And for a really smart manager to win the global crown, or even to crack the top 50k or 100k, it might take him or her hundreds or thousands of lifetimes.

I speculate that if some sort of 'multiverse' hypothesis is indeed the case (that there are many parallel realities, perhaps an infinite number, all subtly different - and that hence, across that infinitude, everything that can happen, will happen somewhere), then smart FPL managers are enjoying their just reward somewhere each year. But within a single reality, it might take centuries or millennia before the dice fall that kindly for us.

For most of us, it will never happen - because life is too short.

The End of Civlization

Another Youtube channel I'm rather fond of, again with a heavily philosophical leaning, is Aperture - run by a Toronto-based digital media company called Underknown. 

This recent video explores the importance of the Hierarchy of Cognition developed by American educational psychologist Benjamin Bloom, a taxonomy of 'levels of thinking' intended as a framework for the planning of more effective teaching.

While the opening sections about the 'dumbing down' and the increasing tribalism of modern society under the adverse influence of digital media saturation are pretty depressing stuff, the film does ultimately take a more optimistic track, explaining how we can try to break free of these negative influences and continually advance our thinking towards the upper strata of Bloom's pyramid.

And it is absolutely chock-full of ideas I've been talking about in relation to FPL for the past few years...

"Analysis requires emotional distance. Evaluation requires neutrality. Creation requires clarity."

“Thinking begins where impulsivity ends. When you slow your mind, you create the space necessary for thought to grow.”

It is a fantastic video, brimful of thought-provoking quotes. Go and watch the whole thing. And then try to apply its lessons.

'Chasing' is the ultimate DELUSION

A chap on one of the FPL forums recently was asking what tactics he should follow in the last two or three gameweeks of the season.

My reply was this:  You do what you'd do in any other gameweek. You pick the best team you can, and keep your fingers crossed for a good outcome. 

There is no way to 'protect' rank, or to 'chase' rank: you have no knowledge of what anyone else will choose to do, and no control over anyone's outcomes. 

If you delude yourself into thinking that a 'more cautious' selection or a 'more daring' selection is better, you're just distracting yourself from what you ought to be doing - trying to find the BEST selection.

That's all there is to it. 'Chasing rank' (or nervously 'protecting rank') is dangerous nonsense; it only leads to foot-shooting.