Luck-o-Meter 26-27 - Gameweek 4

I'll try to continue with this series of weekly reviews for a while (although they are rather irksomely time-consuming), using the simpler format I developed in the second half of last season: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: No possible argument with Axel Disasi's sending off: he went in with studs raised and caught Jack Clarke just below the knee.

It didn't make a lot of difference to the result, but Reinildo's second yellow card against Arsenal looked unjust.

Foden's early red card at Old Trafford was certainly 'harsh', but fairly inevitable: even though the contact was utterly trivial - a mere twitch of his upstretched legs towards Bruno's midriff - it did look petulant and retaliatory. However, Fernandes was also clearly at fault for having a niggly little kick at Foden's buttock as he lay on the ground immediately prior (and for play-acting so egregiously to try to get his opponent sent off for the offence), and might well have deserved a red card himself - if the rules were being applied absolutely strictly and absolutely consistently. Common sense would suggest that a yellow card for each player would have been a fairer response; but referees seem to have very little leeway to exercise 'common sense' any more. Ultimately, though, this sending-off was only consequential for the small percentage of FPL managers who rashly own Foden; United were miles off it, and were pretty comprehensively outplayed by City throughout the match - after the sending-off even more so than before it.

There was not too much doubt about Taiwo Awoniyi's offence, though: he did fairly clearly throw his shoulder or the back of his upper-arm into De Cuyper's face as the Brighton man rushed towards him - apparently retaliation for a small clash between the two a few moments earlier.

Red cards not awarded:  Jason McAtee was perhaps fortunate to get only a yellow for his wild challenge on Maatsen - not 'violent', perhaps, but rash and cynical, and it did injure the player. The Villa left-back was unable to continue, which left Villa with 10 men in the closing minutes, as Emery had used all his substitutes early.

Penalties awarded: The penalty award against Konsa looked harsh; behind-the-goal views showed that Ballard was grabbing his shirt rather than vice versa, and had probably dragged him off balance. You can see why the grappling may have looked different to the referee; but that was surely an instance where VAR should have intervened to question the initial decision. Arsenal's late penalty, though, looked even more dubious: there was a little bit of holding by Reinildo, but that was outside the area; his challenge on the edge of the box appeared to play the ball (so, his second yellow was also unjust; but VAR again remained silent).

Penalties not awarded:  

Tight/dubious offsides: Liam Delap appeared to have blasted home a second goal from Gibbs-White's cross - but someone (Gibbs-White, presumably) was flagged offside. That was an utterly baffling call; and the SAOT picture was not shared to explain it.

Timber headed home powerfully from Odegaard's curling free-kick. On TV, he didn't look offside (and we were never shown the SAOT graphic): the supposed margin can't have been more than an inch or two!

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed: While Haaland's goal did feel 'just' on the balance of play (United were never really in the game, before or after their visitors were reduced to 10 men), it was a very, very odd decision. Apparently, Pro Ref ('Professional Game Referees', the newly rebranded version of the former PGMOL) has admitted a procedural lapse, in that the VAR team was mistaken not to recommend that referee Michael Oliver conduct a review of the 'subjective' offside issue as to whether Enzo Fernandez's attempted diving header was 'interfering with play'. This was a grave oversight; but it wouldn't necessarily mean that the decision itself was wrong (although it would be hard to argue that a player diving across the last defender and right in front of the goalkeeper is not distracting them from other threats beyond the far post...). However, I felt the bigger issue here was that Haaland himself had looked offside anyway - and not by a small margin, by a foot or two! And yet when the decisive SAOT graphic was finally revealed, it was another of these situations we've seen quite a lot of already this season where the pieture appeared significantly out-of-sync with what we'd seen with the naked eye, as if the freeze-frame had been taken at least a few tenths of a second later than the actual delivery of the ball by Gvardiol out on the left of the box: all the United defenders were about half a yard nearer to the goal-line than they had looked in real life. And even then, there was no visible margin: the tip of Patrick Dorgu's outstretched toe appeared to be exactly level with Haaland's leading shoulder, not ahead of it - not even by one millimetre!!  This decision felt very clearly WRONG: and it might be hugely consequential not just for this one game, but for the eventual title race.  It suggests to me that the SAOT system is fundamentally unreliable, and needs to be suspended until they've worked out how to improve its implementation. (I suspect the problems lie more with how officials are using and interpreting the technology's outputs than with the technology itself; and with the inappropriate finickiness of the Offside Law itself - it simply is not practicable, or desirable, to attempt to adjudicate offside situations down to a matter of inches, a margin decided toeneails, eyebrows, and shirt ruffles...)  It seems to have been argued subsequently that Haaland was in fact 'played onside' by a tiny deflection on the cross off Dorgu's boot. But that is even more baffling: a) it was not clear from TV pictures that there was any such deflection; and b) I thought the rule was now that deflections did not count, that only a controlled attempt to play the ball by a defender was considered a 'deliberate touch' for these purposes (that would seem fair and commonsensical, anyway; and it does seem to have been how these incidents have been interpreted for the last several years); and c) this was not explained as the rationale for the decision (the SAOT graphic appeared to be attempting to justify it on the basis that Haaland had in fact been in an 'onside' position 'behind' Dorgu, regardless of any touch on the ball by Dorgu).

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Keith Andrews surprisingly left out Michael Kayode in favour of Aaron Hickey (one wonders if there was some fitness issue behind that; although Kayode did come on for the last 20 minutes).

Jaydee Canvot has apparently had a falling-out with his manager, not even being included on the bench against Ipswich; new loanee Honest Ahanor was surprisingly given an immediate start. Walter Benitez started in goal because of a late injury for Dean Henderson.

Forest lost Nikola Milenkovic and Jair Cunha to late injuries in training, so had to use full-back Ola Aina on the right side of the back-three (a lucky reprieve for a player who'd looked certain to lose his place to new signing Daniel Munoz).

Iraola, worried about fatigue after the midweek Champions League game against Atleti, subbed off Munoz and Gravenberch just shy of the hour. (At least it was a relief to see Gakpo - who had been rumoured to be facing a possible long spell on the sidelines with a thigh-muscle injury - able to play a full half-hour and more.)

White and Lewis-Skelly were replaced at half-time by Timber and Guimaraes, after a sterile first-half in which Arsenal failed to make any impression against Sunderland.

Luke Shaw, troubled with a muscle problem all week, was unable to play on Sunday, and was replaced at left-back by Patrick Dorgu. Nico O'Reilly was sufficiently recovered from his back trouble to make an appearance from the bench, but as I'd mused the other day, does now seem to have been edged out of any chance of a regular start by Enzo Fernandez and Josko Gvardiol. Because of the challenge of having to play most of the game with 10 men, Maresca took a tactical decision to replace Cherki with Ndiaye at half-time (a cruel blow for the nearly 30% of managers who now own Cherki; I suffered a similar vexation a few years ago with Luis Diaz being withdrawn because of a sending-off for Van Dijk).

Near misses:  Late on at Bournemouth, substitute Ben Gannon-Doak's swift break down the left ended with him shooting powerfully from the edge of the box - but the effort deflected off a defender's shin and looped on to the post.

Shortly after his opening goal, Liam Delap met Munoz's cross at the near-post but powered his header into the side-netting.

Marcus Rashford curled a sweet 25-yard free-kick against the face of the near-post midway through the first-half, with Donnarumma struggling to get across. After the break, Kobbie Mainoo cracked an open-play effort from similar range against the same left-hand post - but those were United's only decent efforts in a fairly sterile game. In the second-half, Enzo Fernandez had a cracking curler from the same kind of distance brilliantly finger-tipped on to the post by Lammens.

Big misses/big saves: There was a bit of a comedy-of-errors early on at Villa Park, when Murillo deflected a shot towards goal off the back of his heel, it hit Sels rather than being saved by him, the ball immediately rebounded to Murillo whose hurried attempt to clear smashed against the inside of the post and fortuitously hit Sels again; but at least the subsequent follow-up attempt on goal was well blocked by the Forest keeper. Neco Williams was teed up for a great chance from just inside the box, but lashed his effort miles over the bar. Schlager's diving header was brilliantly saved at the foot of his post by Suzuki - but ultimately to no avail, as Forest found a winner shortly afterwards anyway.

Bournemouth's new centre-back Antonio Silva ghosted in behind to meet Tavernier's delicious delivery from a free-kick, but put his header wide of the post. Kelleher did well to parry Kluivert's powerful low shot, but the rebound fell straight to Rayan - who rushed his effort and skied it over the bar.

Reece James's 30-yard free-kick was probably curling just wide of the top corner, but Tzolakis came flying across his goal impressively to tip it away. Palmer played Rogers in for a golden opportunity to secure a 3-2 win, but he shot straight at the keeper. A rather shakey-looking Emi Martinez spilled a long-range effort from Slater in front of Oli McBurnie, but was able to save his blushes by blocking the close-range follow-up effort with a foot. Hull had an even better chance to nick a late victory when Giles's delicious curling cross was met at the far post by substitute Cho, but he side-footed tamely at the keeper.

Anan Khalaili spurned a late chance to claim a win for 10-man Palace when he blazed a volley over the bar after Scherpen had patted Hughes's teasing cross straight at him.

Victor Munoz had a dangerous looping header from a corner well tipped over by Leno - about the only good chance in a very drab game at Anfield. Towards the end of a drab game, Isak managed to connect with a Szoboszlai corner at the near-post, but glanced his header across the face of the goal and wide.

Bukayo Saka ghosted in behind in the opening minutes (onside by a whisker?) to meet Rice's teasing cross - but somehow failed to make a proper connection with the ball, allowing Roefs an easy claim. Shortly afterwards, Havertz unleashed a crisp volley on the swivel that Roefs had to tip over the bar. And then, of course, Raya pulled off a superb penalty save from Le Fée to keep Arsenal in the game (a huge FPL points lift for that - but it shouldn't have been a penalty!!). Shortly after Arsenal took the lead, Sunderland somehow failed to convert a series of chances in a penalty area scramble - Mukiele ultimately back-heeling towards goal, but the effort being well blocked by Konsa.

Bryan Mbeumo fluffed two good chances late in the game: stealing in between Gvardiol and Dias for a free header, but directing the effort clean across the face of goal; and then ghosting in clear behind in the middle of the box in the closing minutes, but firing straight at Donnarumma.

Although Coventry were utterly woeful defensively, they did create a lot of moments of danger, and 'Man of the Match' Bart Verbruggen ended up with a 'saved xG' of nearly 2, producing 3 particularly outstanding saves: the best an acrobatic full-length stop from Rudoni's volleyed cross-shot early in the game, although his tipping over Onyeka's fierce dipping volley was almost as good, and the late save at his near-post from Thomas-Assante excellent as well.

Outstanding goals: Liam Delap pinged one in from nearly 30 yards out. Villa's equaliser, a powerful header from their new Brazilian winger, Alysson, converting McGinn's cross, was also excellent.

Jorgen Strand Larsen's firm, low cross-shot into the far corner was the best of 5 good goals at Selhurst Park.

Bruno Guimaraes opened his account for Arsenal with a banger into the top corner from nearly 23 yards out.

As Coventry's composure and morale collapsed in the last quarter of the game, Brighton had a little bit of a mini 'Goal of the Month' competition all by themselves: Coventry were repeatedly guilty of not closing their opponents down, allowing them far too much time and space to contemplate shots from distance (and goalkeeper Rushworth may have been a little off for those two late goals as well, perhaps having his confidence eroded by the sudden landslide his team were facing); but it is odd that Brighton managed to conjure two such outstanding finishes in quick succession: Dunk's thumping 30-yard dipper right into the top-left corner is surely a front-runner for September's 'Goal of the Month', but Ayari's low drive from just outside the box a few minutes later was nearly as good.

Outstanding performances: Bart Verbruggen, rather surprisingly, in a game in which his team ran rampant in attack, had to produce one of the best goalkeeping performances of the season to keep Brighton ahead.

Big mistakes: Djorde Petrovic gave up 2 points by passing the ball straight to a lurking Kevin Schade late in the game; Schade finished very coolly, chipping into the open net - but it was a gift of a chance.

Ipswich keeper Kjell Scherpen passed the ball directly to Adam Wharton early on, but Wharton's first-time 'shot' passed it straight back to him!

Antonin Kinsky also produced a similar lapse, giving the ball away to Dewsbury-Hall waiting in the middle just outside the penalty area - but he made amends by managing to block the Everton midfielders effort with his legs.

Bad luck/good luck: Leif Davis nearly bagged a second goal for himself with a looping header in the final minute of regular time; the effort crashed back off the face of the crossbar allowing substitute Zian Flemming a tap-in, so Davis claimed a second assist instead.

Roefs very nearly saved Saka's penalty.

FPL weirdness: Goalkeepers receive far too little credit under the BPS: Verbruggen was universally acclaimed as the 'Man of the Match' for his outstanding performance in the Brighton goal, but failed to get close to even 1 bonus point because his teammates scored so many goals up the other end.

Unexpected results:  Villa are usually tough to beat at home, but they have started the season poorly, and usually struggle with stamina after a European game; and Forest tend to get especially fired up for Midlands derbies - so, I was predicting a Forest win in this one; but many people were not. Most people seem to have been expecting a comfortable home win for Chelsea - but I'd actually predicted a tight game and a possible 2-2 draw. Palace were also probably expected to get a home win against struggling Ipswich; but Ipswich have looked much better than Coventry, while Palace have looked very shakey at the back - a draw might have been the most likely outcome, but I wouldn't really call the Ipswich win a 'surprise'. Although Iraola's Liverpool haven't yet looked all that convincing, they would have been expected to win fairly comfortably at home against a frail Fulham. And I wouldn't have predicted a floundering Spurs would have been able to keep a clean sheet - even at home, against a not particularly incisive Everton.

And surely very few people were expecting Sunderland to make Arsenal struggle so much; their xG was actually nearly as good as their visitors', and if Le Fée had converted their penalty, the result might have been different.

Brighton were fancied to get a win, perhaps quite a big win, against woeful Coventry; but the 5-0 thrashing was ultimately somewhat fortuitous, as the home side unravelled due to Awoniyi's silly sending-off offence early in the second-half, and a fairly soft penalty award fairly soon afterwards. Coventry actually created the better chances, and with only slightly better luck might have been able to stay on terms.

Almost all of Saturday's games contained significant elements of the unexpected, and the FPL 'Team of the Week' yet again includes a fair number of randoms; Raya, Gvardiol, Schade, Gross and Joao Pedro are the only high-owned representatives in it. Despite expected big returns for Arsenal and Chelsea players, the global average was still only a relatively modest 42 points after Saturday, but has eventually climbed to a fairly respectable 63 points. The thrashing of poor Coventry by Brighton - not fully 'expected' or deserved, I would say! - was particularly consequential for FPL, with 17%-owned Pascal Gross being credited with 2 assists as well as being gifted a fairly soft penalty to convert for a 17-point haul, while Maxim De Cuyper nabbed 1 assist and a clean sheet for 11 points; if you had one or both of these, you had a pretty good gameweek! If (like me...) you felt that Brighton's prospects against Coventry were not overwhelmingly strong enough to make up for their daunting run of fixtures from now until early December, then... you got slammed. 

With so many bizarre incidents and near-misses, several absolute bangers of goals, 2 goals ruled out for invisible 'offsides', 2 pretty terrible penalty awards on Saturday, and an arguably missed red card for McAtee, the controversial sending-off for Foden and the massive cock-up on the game-deciding offside call at Old Trafford, I'm afraid this is now a 9 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter', much the most eccentric gameweek of the season so far; and, sadly, 'back to normal' for chaotic refereeing, after an unusually good opening few weeks to the season.