Sheep Picks (21)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are dangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Just a quick one this week, as I see so many rather bizarrely over-optimistic selections finding their way into people's squads for Double Gameweek 33.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the third most transferred-in player this week, with nearly 200,000 FPL managers piling in for him already (and still 24 hours or so to go before the deadline). Admittedly, Leeds have perhaps the most attractive pair of fixtures of any of the doubling teams - though neither game is likely to be straightforward, especially as Leeds's form has faltered somewhat over the last couple of months, falling back a long way from their rousing rally in December and January. Calvert-Lewin has been woefully inconsistent throughout his career; and although he's arguably been having his best season ever, he hasn't looked like a really consistent threat - especially recently. In fact, he hasn't scored a league goal in 10 weeks now; and hasn't really looked likely to; he missed a penalty against Palace last month! Indeed, you wonder if he might not be in danger of being dropped for, at least rotated a bit more with Lukas Nmecha. I think you could bet your house on this guy getting a double-blank this week. Absolutely not a player worth dropping one of your regular starters for.

Dominic's teammate, Noah Okafor, is also a rather dubious pick. This looks like a classic case of chasing last week's points; people are enamoured of him just because he scored a brace against a very sub-par Manchester United on Monday night. Sure, after that performance, he might keep the start this weekend. But he has been fairly rarely used by the club so far this season. And Brenden Aaronson and Ethan Ampadu are surely much stronger options from the Leeds midfield.

The same phenomenon of being blinded by a recent - untypical, and almost certainly one-off! - success is luring many people towards Mats Wieffer. He's a great player. But he's currently playing out of position as a makeshift right-back. He's not a prolific goalscorer, and Pascal Gross or Jack Hinselwood are surely better prospects from the Brighton midfield - if you insist on overloading on doubling players. And although Brighton have been showing some good form in the past couple of months, it's very difficult to know what they might get out of games against Spurs and Chelsea (potentially strong teams.... currently in awful form).

I don't think I'd be going in for any additional Brighton or Leeds players just for this Gameweek. If you already have Van Hecke or Kadioglu or Verbruggen, or Struijk or Bogle or Aaronson.... fine; stick with solid players like that, who should be worthwhile assets through the remainder of the season. But bringing in extra players from clubs like this, with fixtures like this - it's not worth it.