Sheep Picks (2)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

This week's nomination, of course, is Chelsea's Noni Madueke.

Yes, he's getting a start on the right side of the attack - which wasn't necessarily expected. And he's played very well in these opening two games. And he just scored a stunning hattrick! That, naturally, is the reason why The Sheep are getting so over-excited about him. Sorry to be the one to tell you this, but he's NOT going to get a hattrick every week. Heck, he's not even going to score every week. He might not even score every month...

It should be noted that this hattrick was against Wolves, who currently have one of the ricketiest defences in the League. And that they were all set up for him particularly sweetly by Cole Palmer (who was obviously the real 'Man of the Match', whatever FPL's bizarre 'Bonus Points System' pretends!). Not even Palmer plays that well every game; and most of the time, he'll be looking to set up Jackson rather than one of the wingers. So, this was almost certainly a one-off; there's no reason to suppose that Madueke is particularly likely to bag another double-digit haul all season. And that's if he even keeps his start - which, with Neto and Sancho competing for the place, is very much in doubt. (Whether Maresca will invariably start with two wide attackers is also open to question. For some games, he could well want a narrower front line. And if he feels like introducing Nkunku in a more central No. 10 slot, Palmer would be forced out wider on the right, replacing Madueke.)

Moreover, Madueke is priced at 6.5 million. While that's not expensive, it's also not cheap. There are this year a bunch of starters at 5.5 million who look even more promising.

Madueke is a very good player, and has the potential to be one of the season's surprise breakthrough stars. But that one hattrick was not enough to convince any sensible observer that this breakthrough is already starting to happen. There are still too many doubts about Madueke's hold on the starting place, or his likely regular productiveness even if he does become an automatic first choice, to justify an ownership of 100,000 - let alone over 1 million (most of those having piled in for him in the last week!).