Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 19

 

The peak month for 'randomness' draws to a close at last - although I'm not sure that January will be much better! It didn't seem a promising omen for the Tuesday batch of games - and perhaps for the gameweek as a whole - that BBC's 'Match of the Day' felt obliged to lead with the utterly dire game between West Ham and Brighton! Apart from the splendid top-of-the-table clash between Arsenal and Villa, this might well prove to be the most lacklustre gameweek of the entire year.

Newcastle were looking rather better than they have recently, possibly getting a boost in confidence from the return of Pope in goal. They could have gained more of a lead early on. However, their second goal - scrambled home in the goalmouth by Wissa for his first league strike for his new club - shouldn't have stood, as Guimaraes had clearly shoved over Laurent in front of the keeper before the ball was spilled towards his centre-forward in the middle of the six-yard box. The unfortunate Laurent put his side back in the game shortly afterwards with a great strike. A plucky Burnley fight-back had the away side's goal under siege for a while in the second-half, but their finishing just wasn't good enough. And Newcastle came back at them again at the end, with a Thiaw header being cleared off the line, and moments later Jacob Murphy, presented with an open goal, somehow scooped his effort over the bar. Newcastle eventually claimed the third goal they'd long threatened in added-on time, when a terrible mix-up on the edge of the box between Dubravka and one of his defenders gifted the ball to Guimaraes to curl the ball around them into an empty net. The big surprise/annoyance for FPL managers was that Nick Woltemade, owned by nearly 20%, was given a rest, and only came on for the last 10 minutes.

Chelsea dropped points yet again from being 2-1 up, and were perhaps fortunate to get anything from a game in which their defending from set-pieces was absolutely dreadful (Garnacho's marking in the box was so non-existent that he was withdrawn at half-time, and this has been such a consistent problem from him, I wonder if he'll now get any more starts; he may have value as an impact sub, but Neto and Gittens are obviously much superior options for almost every aspect of the game except take-ons), and in which Bournemouth had rather the better of the chances. Semenyo - widely feared to be making his farewell appearance for the club before an anticipated January transfer - was somewhat unfortunate not to get any FPL credit for for his long-throws which set up both of the goals (I really think 'pre-assists' are often more worthy of points than the official 'assists', which are often just accidental and/or uncontrolled flick-ons), and to concede a penalty for a very slight and entirely unintentional tap on Estevao's heel (not all 'contact' is culpable, and this was another of those right on the cusp, where many referees, perhaps the majority of them, would not have given it; except that Sam Barrott was here directed to take a second look by VAR, and that always prejudices referees towards reversing their original decision). Bournemouth had a much stronger shout for a penalty waved away when a high, dropping ball struck Gusto in the middle of the outside of his upper-arm; the contact was neither intentional nor consequential, but those are not the criteria these days; the ball struck him well below the shoulder, and his arm was extended a long way away from his body - 9 out of 10 incidents like that seem to be given these days. At least it was nice to see Palmer (from the penalty spot; although Petrovic had anticipated the direction of the shot correctly, and very nearly got to it) and Kluivert scoring again; but otherwise, yet another pretty drab match.

Everton's James Garner will perhaps be the most surprising inclusion in the 'Team of the Week', with the breakthrough early goal at Forest, a sublime assist for Barry's late second, another strong 20-yard effort flashing just wide, and a huge defensive contribution as well. Forest had a few chances, with Igor Jesus nicking the ball off a crowd of Everton defenders in the first-half but putting his effort just past the post, and substitute Bakwa striking a good cross-shot inches wide in the closing minutes. Everton regained some energy later in the game, especially after Grealish, back from several days sidelined with an illness, came on from the bench for the last 20 minutes. It was not a great performance from the home side; but even so, the result flattered Everton somewhat - this really felt more like a 1-1. Michael Keane was another late omission as a result of a 'training knock'.

West Ham v Brighton was a bit of a topsy-turvy game. 2 penalties in quick succession for Brighton, both utterly uncontentious (despite Nuno's inevitable gripes); but Danny Welbeck, having despatched the first quite competently, then bizarrely opted for a Panenka chip on the second and crashed the effort against the crossbar (and he couldn't turn in the rebound either). The visitors then gave up a penalty of their own for a supposed handball, which was much harsher - a shot fired at Dunk from point-blank range when he'd spread himself on the floor to try to block (my view on these is that it should be 'strict liability' if the defender's arm blocks a goal-bound shot; but that's not actually what the rules currently say - sometimes we see these given, sometimes we don't). In the second-half, the home side retreated into their shell and tried to hang on to their slender lead, and were increasingly under siege in their goal: as Areola flapped at a succession of corners, it became inevitable that one of them would be bundled in - and they were really fortunate to hang on to even a point. A limping Todibo had to be replaced by Mavropanos after half-time. And Mitoma finally returned from injury, playing the last half-hour, and bringing one good save out of Areola.

Arsenal eventually came out comfortable winners against distant title rivals Villa, although the visiting team had some of the best chances in the first-half, and came back strongly again late in the second, to earn a deserved consolation from Ollie Watkins (via a particularly freaky 'assist' from substitute Malen - a toe-poke at goal from just outside the left post, which somehow squirmed through Raya's legs and rebounded off the upright across the face of the goal straight to Watkins's feet!). Arsenal's opener, however, a corner bundled across the line by just-returned Gabriel, was a bit dubious; the big defender had raised his elbow dangerously into the opposing keeper's chin as he jumped against him to challenge for the ball; the contact was probably only light, if there was any at all, and Martinez appeared to be guilty of going down easily looking for the foul (rather than standing strong and making sure he claimed the ball), but it did look like an unfair challenge - given the exaggerated protection usually afforded to keepers. This didn't ultimately matter, though, as Zubmimendi got the steamroller well and truly in motion shortly afterwards, and the home side went on to their most convincing win of the season.  There might have been another slightly contentious moment near the end when Raya scrambled a Watkins effort out from behind him on the line, and it looked as if the ball may momentarily been fully in the goal - but the goal-line technology didn't have a clear view of the ball, and the referee and linesman weren't going to find against the league leaders on something like that. Rice was a surprise late omission with a previously undisclosed knee problem, and Emery made his first substitutions right on the hour - but fortunately they all walked off the pitch just slowly enough to earn their FPL owners full appearance points.

There were a number of decent chances in the Manchester United v Wolves game, with Dorgu flashing a 20-yard cross-shot just wide, Sesko heading a corner against the outside of the post, and Hugo Bueno forcing Lammens into a good save with his leg. The opener for the home side, though, was a bit fortuitous - Zirkzee losing the ball on the edge of the box, but getting it back again from a kind rebound, then slightly mishitting his shot, which lacked much power but took a huge deflection off Krejci to leave the keeper stranded. Krejci got some consolation in the second-half when his powerful header won his side only their third point of the season. As I warned yesterday, Amorim can't be trusted to stick with the same selection or the same tactical approach for any two consecutive games, and although Dorgu, obviously brimming with confidence at the moment, again had a great game, his attacking scope was limited when returned to a left wing-back role in the clunky 3-4-3 system.

Thursday's other goal-dry games were at least quite entertaining, but Spurs's visit to Brentford was not. The home side completely dominated their woefully lacklustre opponents, but hadn't put on their scoring boots for this one. We did, however, see the most incomprehensibly awful refereeing decision of the whole season so far, when Andy Madley - and the VAR team - inexplicably saw nothing wrong with Romero's spastic attempted clearance which got nothing of the ball but wiped out Thiago as he was breaking through on goal 25 yards out; this was unquestionably a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' sending-off (and a free-kick in a promising position might have yielded an immediate goal). Spurs fans felt they might have had a penalty when Archie Gray went down on the edge of the box, but there was nothing in that one.

Fulham will feel frustrated they couldn't nick all three points away at Palace. As the home side's legs gave out in the last 20 minutes or so, the visitors' pressure became relentless. Raul had already put a good header against a post before Tom Cairney finally found the deserved equaliser with a sweet left-foot shot from just outside the box. Henderson pulled off a superb reaction save in the closing minutes, when the ball fell to Castagne unmarked in the middle of the box and he unleashed a fierce drive. Andersen had a similar opportunity in the dying seconds of added-on time, but scooped his effort over the top. Marco Silva feels Palace should have been reduced to 10 men in the first-half when Devenny caught Cuenca in the face with an elbow, but it looked a slight and accidental contact that the Fulham man was making a meal of. Somehow, though, 5 Fulham players wound up in the book in this game.

Vastly improved Leeds continued their robust defensive form to deny Liverpool at Anfield - although the home side should have had at least one penalty, when Bijol had both arms around Ekitike for several seconds in the first-half (and concluded by making a vain lunge through his legs, that also made contact with the forward and might have knocked him down), but he kept going rather than falling to the floor; and in the second-half Ampadu commited a very blatant handball right on the edge of the box - and VAR did not seem to check where exactly the contact was. In general, though, Leeds were good value for their point; and indeed they very nearly nicked the win when Calvert-Lewin steered the ball past Alisson in the closing minutes, but was flagged just offside. The FPL frustrations here were more 'rest rotations' - for Calvert-Lewin, Macallister and Kerkez.

Sunderland maintained their impressive defensive solidity to frustrate City and maintain their remarkable unbeaten home record. Their only major scare came when City won a corner in the opening minutes, and Haaland's near-post flick-on was lashed home by Bernardo Silva - but he had been narrowly offside. Pep caused more FPL woe by 'resting' Gvardiol and Reijnders at the start, and making a lot of early substitutions (the removal of Gonzalez and Savinho might have been down to knocks; Nico O'Reilly's replacement wasn't). At least Doku and Rodri were able to make a return from the bench.

It's yet another particularly weird FPL 'Team of the Week', with Krejci, Veltman, Brooks, Garner, Paqueta, and Guimaraes keeping out almost all of the more favoured picks. There were a lot of rest rotations and previously unannounced injuries - and a few early substitutions - causing grief to FPL managers. And it was another wretchedly low-scoring week, both in goals and FPL points - with a dismal global average of just 40 points.

Overall, there weren't very many poor refereeing decisions in this batch of games, but a dubiously allowed goal for Arsenal, a few missed penalty awards (and one very harshly awarded against Brighton), and Andy Madley's bizarre failure to send off Romero easily get this week's score up to an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Another holiday treat from ACFC

 

The always marvellous Adam Clery Football Channel has dropped another 'holiday special' video, this time on the remarkable Leicester City Premier League title win ten years ago. Is it really that long ago now? Seems like only yesterday....

This was a triumph so improbable that lifelong fan of the club, Gary Lineker, promised half-way through the season that he'd present the year's final 'Match of the Day' programme on the BBC in his underwear if his team achieved it.

A lot of people didn't think he'd go through with it - but he's a game lad. We're missing him this year, now that he's finally retired from the show.

Dilemmas of the Week - GWs19 & 20 (25/26)

 

I always warn that December is invariably the most unpredictable month of the season (well, except insofar as it's predictably disappointing for FPL managers every year!),... and it ain't over yet. The 'midwinter blues' - a huge accumulation of injuries (not to mention just fatigue and ennui), frantic squad rotation, and wild swings of team form as a result - generally continue well into January; and often on into February too. But they are now hitting their climax, with the absurd concentration of fixtures on and around the two 'holiday' weekends at the turn of the year. The only slightly 'good' news is that the threshold for a first suspension for accumulated yellow cards is raised from 5 to 10 after this gameweek; but receiving a 5th is still a problem for some players to worry about in the coming match.

At least there weren't too many new injuries in last weekend's games (although there had been a fair few problems that cropped up 'in training' just ahead of them!), so the rundown for this gameweek should be relatively straightforward. However, since there's only a one-day gap between GWs 19 and 20, we probably won't get much - if any - authoritative further injury updates before the weekend; anything that does emerge, I'll try to add here, making it a combined Gameweek 19/20 post. 

And of course, if anyone does still have any chips left to play, they'd better think about which one of them to use in this gameweek, because they were all time-limited to the first half of the season only; any remaining ones are voided after the Gameweek 19 deadline passes. (We do of course get a complete second set of chips for the second half of the season; but no unused ones from the first half can carry over.)

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 19 (& 20) [&21]?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Arsenal were particularly hard-hit at the weekend, with Jurrien Timber suffering a joint injury from 'an awkward landing' in training just before the game and Riccardo Calafiori feeling a leg-muscle stiffness during the warm-ups. No word on the severity of either issue; but Arteta would surely be unlikely to take risks by rushing them back into action so soon. Gabriel appeared on the bench again at last on Saturday, and made a cameo for the last 20 minutes - but is surely still a few weeks away from being able to start. At least Saliba and Hincapie are available again (although only just back from injury themselves), and Lewis-Skelly is a more-than-capable deputy at left-back; but it's hardly the best use of Declan Rice to have him filling in as an emergency right-back. And Arsenal don't seem to have any other defensive cover at the moment, without raiding the youth team - or recalling Jakub Kiwior from loan in Portugal?

Unai Emery mentioned 9 or 10 days ago that Harvey Elliott had been suffering from illness, but he didn't elaborate as to whether this was just a short-term virus, or some more serious, long-term problem that might have been keeping him out of the playing squad - almost since his arrival at the club.

Alex Scott took a whack in the face in the defeat to Brentford, and may have suffered a significant injury to his jaw. He is not much owned in FPL, but is a very important player for Bournemouth.

Sepp van den Berg missed the Bournemouth game with a training knock.

Burnley's Joe Worrall had to miss the Everton game last weekend with a minor muscle problem; but a bigger worry for Scott Parker is that his midfield stalwart Josh Cullen had to go off with a knee injury that looks as though it might be quite serious.

Marc Cucurella had to come off against Villa with a tight hamstring, and his likeliest current replacement, Jorrell Hato, pulled a muscle doing half-time warm-ups, so Chelsea might also find themselves a bit light at the back - if Cucu hasn't shaken the problem off.

Jack Grealish missed the Burnley game on Saturday with an illness, but Moyes is hopeful he'll be back tonight.

Leeds's lynchpin defender Joe Rodon is surely going to be out for a while after suffering two heavy hits in quick succession against Sunderland early in the first-half on Sunday, both of which rolled and twisted his right foot quite severely; he must have at least a very heavily sprained and swollen ankle, and it would be surprising if there isn't some more serious ligament damage; if he needs surgery, he's likely to be out for the rest of the season, but, if he's lucky, it might just need a month or so of rest and recuperation.

Poor Mason Mount is a doubtful starter again, having had to come off at half-time against Newcastle last Friday night after feeling a leg-muscle problem.

Anthony Elanga was a surprise omission against United on Friday; but Eddie Howe said that was due to a training knock, and nothing too serious.

Although Chris Wood has been sidelined for months with a niggly knee problem, it's only just been revealed that he's had to have surgery on it and is likely to remain unavailable until well into the New Year.

Dan Ballard had to miss Sunday's visit from Leeds after suffering an ankle injury in training (he's been quite a poplar 'cheap fifth' defender in FPL).

Lucas Bergvall got hit in the side of the head with the ball in the win at Palace, and had to come off after an hour.

Santiago Bueno had to come off with a knock against Liverpool.

[UPDATES for Gameweek 20:  Decan Rice, Lewis Cook, Ryan Christie, Mats Wieffer, Zian Flemming, Eddie Nketiah, Josh King, Michael Keane and Carlos Alcaraz all missed out in Gameweek 19 due to injuries picked up in training shortly beforehand; Amadou Onana, Yankuba Minteh, Maxime Esteve, Kenny Tete, Savinho and Nico Gonzalez, Brian Brobbey, Jean-Clair Todibo and Santiago Bueno all picked up injuries in their matches. None of these problems sounds too serious, but all leave the players flagged as 'doubts' for this weekend.

Moises Caicedo and Ethan Ampadu became the last players to earn a suspension for reaching 5 yellow cards during the first half of the season; and Xavi Simons has to serve the last part of his three-game ban against Sunderland.

Also, of course, there's now much uncertainty about how Chelsea may be affected by the sudden departure of Enzo Maresca this week. They'd been having a mostly rather disappointing season under him so far anyway, so perhaps at least they'll enjoy a little bit of a 'new manager bounce'.... once a replacement starts settling in. For the coming visit to The Etihad, though, you'd assume they'd be in a bit of a mess.]

[UPDATES for Gameweek 21: I've only been able to do an attenuated update for the following midweek gameweek; as far as I can gather, the following players either missed the weekend game with a problem of some sort, or had to come off with an injury in those games: Wesley Fofana, Robert Sanchez, Jefferson Lerma (concussion), Nathaniel Clyne, Jayden Bogle, Hugo Ekitike, Josko Gvardiol (likely to be out for several weeks at least, after surgery on a cracked tibia), Ruben Dias. Jacob Murphy, John Victor, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Wilson Isidor, Mo Kudus, Lucas Paqueta, Joao Gomes, Hwang Hee-Chan.

At least there ae no new suspensions to worry about for this game. And Xavi Simons. Moises Caicedo and Ethan Ampadu are available again after serving their bans.]

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Villa face a major headache for their visit to Arsenal, with three key players, Ezri Konsa, Matty Cash, and Boubacar Kamara all having to serve one-match bans for accumulating 5 yellow cards for the season. [Correction: I was relying on the usually reliable Fantasy Football Scout, but they had earlier been saying Konsa had earned a ban as well, and I didn't have time to do an independent check; turns out they were in error on that, and have subsequently amended that detail.]

Wolves central defensive midfielder André has also reached that suspension threshold. 

These are the players still at risk of an imminent suspension from totting-up (though if they can survive this gameweek, they're then in the clear again for a while).

Xavi Simons is serving the second part of his three-match ban for clogging his countryman Virgil Van Dijk the other week.

Igor Julio is only on loan from Brighton, so can't represent West Ham against his parent club.

Ebere Eze wasn't even on the bench for the Brighton game, which gives some grounds for speculation as to a possible rift with the manager over his sudden lack of minutes since Odegaard's return.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Bournemouth, Palace, hitherto high-flying Sunderland, and - despite their narrow, fortuitous win against Palace on Saturday - Spurs all still look as though they're in a bit of a nosedive in form just at the moment. And West Ham and Burnley are starting to look as if they will soon be joining Wolves as irredeemably doomed to relegation barely into the second half of the season. I don't think I'd be touching any of these teams with a bargepole at the moment, even for bench players (except for Semenyo, possibly; he's catching fire again, and looking like the one bright spot for The Cherries).

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Patrick Dorgu was superb in the dogged win over Newcastle at Old Trafford on Friday night., and it's always especially attractive to find an FPL 'defender' employed as an outright attacker (could we be seeing this year's 'Stuart Dallas Moment'??). But United's form under Amorim always seems too fragile to trust for FPL, even when they do string together a few good results. Can we rely on the flakey Portuguese to use that much more effective 4-2-3-1 lineup ever again? Or to use Dorgu as the wide attacker on the right again (or on the left; anywhere up-front where he can provide an attacking threat will do!), even if he does?? Amorim seems to insist on changing something every game - especially when there's absolutely no need to. [Yes, indeed, United reverted to the 3-4-3, with Dorgu as a much more defensive left wing-back again, for Gameweek 19's floundering draw against Wolves.]

Of course, it's nice to see Ollie Watkins finally find his scoring boots again; but any enthusiasm for a possible immediate turnaround in his season should be tempered by the reflection that he was only used as an impact sub against Chelsea,... and that they're up against Arsenal next,.... and missing a couple of their usual starters due to suspension.

The other outstanding performance of last weekend was from Brentford's Kevin Schade - although he's actually been playing pretty well for most of the season. And all of that attacking trident of Lewis-Potter, Thiago, and Schade look bang on it at the moment.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Packing 'em in

 

From Boxing Day, December the 26th, we entered a run of fixtures where we get 4 full Premier League gameweeks inside a fortnight: we only have 4 days of the 14 up until Thursday 8th January without a match on them. (It's even worse for those of us who live in more easterly latitudes: most of these games are late at night for us, or in the wee small hours of the morning - so, we won't have any opportunity to catch up with them until the following day,.... which can throw the internal sense of chronology out-of-whack even further!)

Gameweek 19 is staggered over Tuesday and Thursday this week (at least we're all getting a 'day off' for New Year's Eve!!); so, we only have one full day clear - today, Monday the 29th - to ponder team revisions before the next FPL deadline.

We again only have one clear day before the Gameweek 20 matches this coming Saturday and Sunday.

And although most of midweek Gameweek 21's fixtures are on next Wednesday evening, for no conceivable reason (well, OK, it's TV scheduling; but is that really a good enough reason, at this time of year, when players and fans alike are not getting nearly enough time off...?), West Ham v Forest is on Tuesday and Arsenal v Liverpool is on Thursday.

So, for 3 Gameweeks running, there is only a one-day gap between the end of one and the beginning of the next. It is very difficult for the beleaguered FPL manager to keep up. Over the coming two weeks, many are, no doubt, going to inadvertently miss a deadline - or hurry into changes without having had any chance to check up on all the relevant team news. It is a beast.

At least we've then got a 'mini-break' coming up,.... with Gameweek 22 not starting until lunchtime on Saturday, 17th January. I think we're all going to need this little bit of a rest from the game.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 18

I always think of December as 'Random Month': mounting exhaustion, mostly dreadful weather, the relentlessly climbing injury and suspension roster, and a slew of unpredictable 'rest rotations' lead to some yo-yo-ing form and a lot of unexpected results. Plus, of course, this week most of the players would undoubtedly far rather be home with their families, and might not be fully focused on their endeavours on the pitch.

Newcastle's woeful away form continued against Manchester United on Friday night - although Eddie Howe presumably employed 'the hairdryer' at half-time as his team re-emerged from the dressing room with more resolve and urgency, and gradually pushed the home side back into a desperate defence of their slender lead, hanging on by fingernails for the last 20 minutes. Amorim is finally showing some tactical flexibility (though perhaps only a grudging - and temporary - adaptation to the multiple player absences he's having to deal with at the moment): after morphing to more of a four-at-the-back without the ball in the last game or two, he now seems to have formalised this into a 4-2-3-1 starting formation - and this time was deployng Dorgu as an outright winger, and on the right, rather than his usual left side; he thrived here on the attacking responsibility, and claimed the winner with a crisp volley from the edge of the box (although I don't know how Dalot is getting credited with an assist on this; his long-throw into the box was not merely 'diverted' but emphatically headed clear by Woltemade at the near-post, really initiating a new 'phase of play'; I wouldn't be surprised to see that attribution overturned). Sesko and Hall both unleashed firm shots against the crossbar in the second half, Gordon put a cross-shot narrowly wide, and Dalot fluffed the best chance of the game when he stole in behind on to a chipped free-kick but hooked his half-volley over the top. There were a couple of hopeful shouts for penalties from the visitors; but those incidents don't seem to have made it into the highlights reels, so presumably there wasn't much in them. Possible further injury woes for United, with Mason Mount not able to reappear after the break, and Casemiro being withdrawn after barely an hour (although that might have been just a fatigue issue, as he rarely has the stamina for a full game any more).

City went briefly back on top of the table after their lunchtime win at Forest, but they had to work for the points, and very nearly let them slip away. Forest actually looked the better team in the first-half, and might have gone ahead after just 7 minutes when Jesus and Gibbs-White both failed by inches to get on the end of a sublime cross in behind the defence from Hudson-Odoi. Their new keeper, John Victor, was also in outstanding form, making superb saves from Cherki and Foden. Hutchinson's equaliser for the home side, finishing off an excellent team move down the left, thus felt well deserved; and they nearly grabbed the lead shortly afterwards when Donnarumma could only parry Neco Williams's low, curling effort out to the inrushing Savona, but the right-back blazed his effort miles over the bar. Forest may also feel slightly aggrieved that O'Reilly appeared to have wrestled Gibbs-White to the ground in the six-yard box just before Cherki rifled in his winner. To me, though, there really wasn't anything of substance in that shout. Forest have a stronger case that Ruben Dias should have been sent off for a second yellow card just before half-time, when he cynically clipped the heels of Igor Jesus only minutes after being booked for dissent. City, of course, get away with a lot.

Arsenal are beset with injury problems in defence: Timber was a late drop-out after feeling a sore muscle in training, and then Calafiori had a similar problem in the warm-up. They were fortunate that Hincapie, who had appeared still doubtful to start during the work, was able to step back into the centre of defence, but Rice had to deputise at right-back. Eze was not even on the bench, which may be an omnous sign. Brighton had their problems too, with Welbeck still troubled by a bad back and only on the bench, Minteh only coming on as a sub for the second-half, and Mitoma, only just fit again after a long injury absence, going down with a virus. Last-minute omissions like this upset many a Bench Boost play this week! Yet again, Arsenal didn't look particularly convincing, but did just enough to take the points from a fairly uninspired opponent: a crisp drive from outside the box from Odegaard in the first-half and a Rice corner unluckily deflected into his own net off of the top of Rutter's head midway through the second had put them comfortably ahead, but the visitors then gave them an anxious finish when Diego Gomez lashed home the rebound after Ayari's curling effort beat Raya but came back off the inside of the far post. Shortly afterwards the Arsenal keeper pulled off one of the saves of the season, flying across his goal to somehow palm away Minteh's fierce curler. Bart Verbruggen was lucky not to get sent off for cynically clattering Gyokeres when he made a fast break down the left flank: it was too far wide to be a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity', but it did look very like 'excessive force'.

Brentford are looking more and more impressive of late, not only attacking quickly and with fluency, as their trio of forwards all look in sensational form, but also finally discovering more solidity in defence. Boutnemouth, though, put up no resistance at all; a baffled and humiliated Iraola observed ruefully that they didn't show up at all until the second-half. A consolation goal from Semenyo, improvising a neat back-heeled finish past Kelleher from close range, was their only positive moment in the game. Brentford won with swagger, and could easily have had more than just Schade's superb hat-trick, and the unfortunate Petrovic own-goal (one of his defenders cleared Thiago's effort from the goal-line but fired it straight against his helpless keeper); Lewis-Potter somehow managed to put the ball just wide of an empty goal when he rushed in to get a header on the rebound from Janelt's long-range shot against the post.

Burnley v Everton was very much the uninspired bottom-of-the-table clash. Jack Grealish has apparently gone down with a virus (although most FPL managers long ago lost enthusiasm for him, after his bright start to the season quickly fizzled out), allowing a start to Tyler Dibling, who was probably the visitors' liveliest player. Somewhat strangely, Beto was also restored to the start at centre-forward, ahead of the recently quite impressive Thierno Barry - who only made it on as a late substitute this time. Substitute Zian Flemming nearly nicked the game for Burnely in the daying minutes, when he was played in behind and tried to pass the ball into the bottom corner: the effort beat Pickford, but rebounded off the base of the post - although the Dutch forward had probably been a whisker offside. Dubravka was somehow credited with 6 saves in the game (didn't see half that many in the TV highlights!), which, in a very uneventful game, was also enough to secure him maximum bonus points.

Liverpool were able to win fairly comfortably, with good goals from Gravenbirch and Wirtz (finally breaking his duck!), but Wolves are showing signs of improvement, and fought gamely - giving the home side a few worrying moments. Nigerian forward Tolu Arokodare, replacing the recently depressed-looking Strand Larsen, was quite a livewire for them: his powerful header led to Wolves pulling a goal back, when Alisson could only parry the effort straight back at the lurking Santiago Bueno, and another free header from him was later looped on to the roof of the net. And late on, Arias was about to fire in at the far post when denied by a superb last-ditch block from substitute Conor Bradley. Wolves should surely be able to start picking up a few points soon; but it remains doubtful whether they'll be able to do enough to lift themselves out of last place, as they are now so far adrift.

West Ham v Fulham was fairly entertaining, although it nearly ended up goalless. There was some flowing attacking play from both sides, although almost none of it culminated in clearcut chances. A fizzing long-distance effort from Harry Wilson early on was well tipped over by Areola (it was quite a day for outstanding saves), and Leno was able to turn behind a fierce near-post effort from Bowen; but that was about it - until Scarles's unfortunate missed clearance late on gifted Wilson the chance to improvise a volleyed chip into the middle where Raul was waiting unmarked on the edge of the six-yard box to head home a winner.

Villa were strangely subdued in the first-half at Chelsea, barely getting a kick in the opposition half, let alone any sort of sniff of goal - though Emery implied that this might all have been part of his 'cunning plan' for the game. Their fortunes were completely revitalised when he made three substitutions just before the hour (potentially more woe for FPL managers!), one of them being Ollie Watkins, initially left on the bench but emerging as a triumphant match-winner. Chelsea just couldn't capitalise on their early dominance: they had all of the ball, but couldn't create many chances with it - and were really somewhat lucky to have nicked the lead just before half-time when Emi Martinez got too busy wrestling with opposiing players on his goal-line to watch the flight of Reece James's in-swinging corner, and it drifted straight into the net - with a little bit of help from a deflection off Joao Pedro's back (definitely a lucky goal for him; he really knew nothing about it!). Chelsea should really have had a second from the penalty spot, though (but Chelsea just aren't awarded penalties any more) when Maatsen was inexplicably excused for a handling offence in the area (he didn't know anything about it, but his arm was stretched way out from his body for no good reason, and that intervention - albeit 'inadvertent' prevented the ball from going through to Neto who would have had a clear chance to score at the far post). Watkins's equaliser was also a bit fortuitous: he had overrun the ball slightly as he dashed in behind on to Roger's neat pass and, as he stretched to get off a late shot, Sanchez had rushed out to smother it; but the ball came back off the keeper's midriff, cannoned into the striker's knees, and the ricocheting ball was lifted over the keeper's prone body and on to the inside of the post - and into the net. Villa's ability to keep in coming from behind is really quite uncanny, and is now establishing them as credible title challengers. Chelsea's inability to create scoring chances even when comfortably controlling a game is becoming a major worry: if they carry on pissing away points like this, they'll finish mid-table.

Sunderland look as if they are missing their AFCON absentees, Sadiki and Reinildo et al, and also lost their defensive colossus Dan Ballard with an ankle injury just before the match. However, AFCON reject Adingra (a surprise omission by the Ivory Coast, presumably because he's got so few minutes so far since his move to Sunderland) put them in front with a neat curler (although I was surprised not to see it ruled 'offside' by the tip of his shoulder; to the naked eye, it looked as if he was), and Brobbey should have doubled the lead soon after, but his powerful header glanced off the top of the bar. Visitors Leeds, though, had looked much the better team, and had nearly gone in front when Aaronson's effort was briliantly cleared on the line by Hume. Eventually their superiority told, when Calvert-Lewin was able to ghost in between the two centre-backs to tap home Aaronson's great cross; his remarkable scoring streak is now a club record in the Premier League (he barely got another touch all game; but that's what good centre-forwards do...: one chance, one goal). Leeds defender Joe Rodon (who's been in the top 20 or 30 most popular FPL defenders all season, because of his attractive inital price-point) had to limp off in the first-half, after suffering two heavy challenges in quick succession that badly rolled his right ankle both times (Brobbey was lucky not to receive a red card for the first one, which was really a very wild challenge).

Palace and Spurs - like many teams at this point in the year - both looked tired and jaded, and produce a very stale end to the gameweek. Spurs produced a performance that was gutsy, rather than convincing; they produced a late flurry of attacks as Palace were chasing the game, with Richarlison being denied a goal for a (fairly clear) offside, for the second time in the game; and Odobert, released on a quick break behind, firing off a crisp drive on the half-volley from 23 yards out that slammed against the foot of the near post. Apart from that late surge of excitement, though, the visitors were hardly in the game: their scrambled goal from a poorly defended corner just before half-time was very much against the general run of play. Palace utterly dominated for most of the game, but couldn't make their superiority pay: Mateta, Lacroix, and Guehi all enjoyed inviting opportunites in front of goal, but couldn't direct their headers on target.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' astonishingly included 3 Manchester United defenders at first (although Ayden Heaven was later bumped off the list by Micky Van de Ven), and Martin Dubravka in goal, Ollie Watkins as the sole forward, and Schade, Cherki, Gravenberch, Wirtz and Odegaard in midfield: excellent players - but not ones with any significant ownership in FPL! The fairly low number of goals, and again some last-minute injury omissions and other selection surprises also add to the 'luck' quotient somewhat. And, despite there being a number of use-them-or-lose-them chips in play, it turned out to be yet another shockingly low 'global average' score - just 44 points this week! (So many of those these dismal averages this year; this is somehow the lowest-scoring season I can remember.) Among the top 30 most-owned players in FPL, only Semenyo and Saka have produced anything this time (well, and Dubravka; but most people only have him as a back-up option and rarely or never actually start him!).

Chelsea should really have had a penalty for a Maatsen handball, which might have changed the outcome of the game; Verbruggen and Brobbey might have been sent off for bad fouls, and Ruben Dias definitely should have been for a clear second-yellow offence. Astonishingly, though, that counts as 'not too bad' for refereeing errors this season!  Nevertheless, this makes it overall about a 6 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Another little bit of Christmas fun

For anyone growing up in the UK in the '70s or early '80s, veteran comedy double-act Morecambe & Wise's 'Christmas Special' TV show on the BBC became more of a central institution of the family Christmas than the Queen's annual 'Message to the Commonwealth', a highlight of the year anticipated for weeks beforehand.

The secret of the duo's showbiz longevity was the remarkable chemistry they shared, along with Eric Morecambe's peerless deadpan delivery; but the Christmas shows were also often memorable for some fantastic bits of visual inventiveness - like this.....

Merry Christmas, again!

Dilemmas of the Week - GW18 (25/26)

With the only midweek game this week being the last of the League Cup quarter-finals between Arsenal and Crystal Palace this Tuesday, most clubs have gone through nearly a full week of no football (and probably not much training!), so there are not many newly emerging injury worries for this gameweek - apart from the few players who got crocked in last weekend's batch of games. However, December is invariably the most unpredictable month of the season (well, except insofar as it's predictably disappointing for FPL managers every year!), and the 'holiday weekend' is typically the most random gameweek of the entire year. Most teams have had briefer or more irregular training this week, as they try to allow their players a little bit of time with their families. Some players may have indulged ever so slightly in over-eating or eating less healthy foods than usual, and perhaps even having a naughty glass or two of alcohol; and even the ones who have been super-disciplined about that are.... probably not quite 100% focused on their football just at the moment. (For one thing, many players have young children, who probably woke them up ridiculously early yesterday morning!)

So, absolutely anything could happen in this next set of games; and it's almost certainly again not going to be a good week to risk playing any of the bonus chips (although many FPL managers may have to, because they haven't yet found any especially propitious moment to use all the extra chips we were given this year, and have now run out of time to do so). Moreover, it's a particularly unpromising set of fixtures to be risking a chip in, even if it had come at a less difficult time of the year: almost all of this weekend's fixtures are uncannily evenly matched: only Liverpool v Wolves and Forest v City look like having an obvious outcome.

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 18?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Piero Hincapie picked up a knock in the Everton game last weekend, and was unable to take part in the midweek Cup game against Palace; he seems likely to be out for a little while. At least Saliba seems to be fit to make a regular return, so Arsenal's crisis in central defence isn't yet acute - but it does seem likely that Calafiori or Timber will have to be moved into central defence (and the other of the two assigned to the right-back role), creating the prospect for Myles Lewis-Skelly to get a few starts on the left at last.

Jan-Paul van Hecke missed the game against Sunderland last week with illness, but was expected to be back in training at the end of this week. (There has been a lot of transfer talk around him lately, though; so, there is a danger that a move to another club next month, or the possibility of such, may soon rule him out.)

Burnley defender Maxime Esteve missed last week with a training knock; supposedly back with the team now, but still doubtful for this weekend. (He was actually a very popular FPL pick early in the season because of his low starting price, and still features in nearly 11% of squads.)

Palace's Eddie Nketiah and Chris Richards both suffered knocks in the Tuesday night Cup defeat to Arsenal. Nketiah's seems minor, and he might be available for the Spurs game, at least off the bench. But a painful blow on the foot for Richards needed him to be taken off on a stretcher, and although not as serious as first feared, it does seem likely to keep him out for a week or two. That leaves Palace rather short in defence, and it's probable that someone like Jefferson Lerma will have to deputise on the right side of the back-three.

Harry Wilson, a recently very popular FPL pick, had to come off in Monday night's game against Forest with a knock to his knee, but Marco Silva sounds modestly confident that he'll be OK this weekend.

Conor Bradley again had to come off with an injury against Spurs last week; no news on the nature of that problem, but he was not expected to be able to train at all this week. Fortunately, it looks like Frimpong may finally be ready for regular minutes again - although he's not the strongest defensively, and that could be a problem with Liverpool are still struggling to steady the ship after an horrendous couple of months. Alexander Isak looked likely to be out for the season after a heavy collision with Micky Van de Ven, in the act of scoring his goal last week, visibly twisted his leg and surely inflicted massive stress on both his left ankle and knee. Fortunately, the knee ligaments seem to have come through somehow intact, and although he needed surgery on the ankle (including setting a cracked bone just above the joint), Slot is optimistic that he could return to action by the end of the season.

The biggest injury news ot the week is surely that Bruno Fernandes (the 5th most-owned midfielder in the game) had to come off at half-time in Sunday night's game at Villa, after suffering a hamstring strain; it seems not too serious, but may keep him out for at least a couple of weeks. Curiously, it looks as though returning centre-back Lisandro Martinez might replace him in the middle alongside Casemiro rather than the struggling Manuel Ugarte (Mason Mount could also do a job there, but they probably need him up-front at the moment) - although, given Amorim's relentless penchant for varying his selections every week, perhaps they'll just randomly cycle through each of their defenders in turn as a makeshift holding midfielder (I can see Luke Shaw being quite a decent fit for the role)...

Tino Livramento had to come off with a knee injury in the League Cup against Fulham just over a week ago; Eddie Howe is hopeful that it's not too serious after all, but it still needs further assessment. Lewis Miley seems likely to continue to deputise at right-back, since the club doesn't have any other fit defenders now.

Forest winger Dan Ndoye had to miss Monday's game against Fulham with a training injury; not too serious, but going to keep him out this weekend.

Wolves defenders Toti and Hugo Bueno missed the Brentford game last week with training injuries; Bueno's seems not too bad, and he's already rejoined training, but Toti apparently has quite a bad hamstring strain and could be out for several weeks.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Double trouble for poor Spurs as Xavi Simons picked up a three-match 'violent conduct' ban last week for clumsily raking his studs down the back of Virgil Van Dijk's calf, while Cristian Romero earned a one-match ban for two yellow cards in the same game (and was really very lucky it wasn't more, as his petulant jerking of his shin into Konate's chest when they were sitting on the ground beside each other could easily have also been construed as 'violent conduct').

And Sunderland's Luke O'Nien is serving the last part of his three-game ban this week.

At least Dominik Szoboszlai is the only new player to pick up a suspension for amassing 5 yellow cards. But we still have two gameweeks to go before the mid-season amnesty on 'totting up'; these are the players still at risk of an imminent suspension.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Spurs and Forest players are starting to look like poison at the moment...

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

There are some interesting new possibilities opening up in defence, with Keane Lewis-Potter at Brentford (a 'defender' now starting as part of the attacking trident, and looking very confident in front of goal) and Antonee Robinson (back at last from a long injury absence, and likely to get as many minutes as he can stand, now that his positional rival Ryan Sessegnon is out of the picture for a little while), who is immediately reminding us that he's probably the best crosser of a ball among all the league's full-backs, Lewis Hall finally back for Newcastle, and Tyrick Mitchell suddenly enjoying a lot more prominence in games now that his more illustrious partner Munoz is off the scene for a few weeks. Although Bournemouth overall have been in a worrying slump, Antoine Semenyo has continued to look outstanding, and seems to have now recovered his goal magic once more. And Dominic Calvert-Lewin has found a nice vein of goalscoring form lately; but he's never historically managed to keep those going for very long, and although Leeds are enjoying quite a resurgence in their last few outings, they still don't have any truly 'easy' games - and at least 3 or 4 of their next 6 matches are likely to be really hard.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A Christmas treat from ACFC

The excellent Adam Clery Football Channel (the best analysis show on Youtube; only founded at the tail-end of last season, but immediately indispensable) yesterday posted a 'Christmas Special' - a great little breakdown on The Greatest Moment Ever In English Sport, our majestic defeat of West Germany in the 1966 World Cup Final at Wembley. [And he's promised another 'historical' anaysis for the holidays soon, an examination of Leicester's extraordinary title-winning season.]

If you feel like watching the full match (it is a hell of a game), here it is:

I could have sworn I'd once been able to watch a colour version of the full match (shot on film for FIFA, where I assume this must be videotape of the BBC black-and-white TV coverage), but it doesn't seem to be available on Youtube at the moment; there are highlights only in colour. 

The Wembley crowd's singing of the National Anthem after the presentation of the trophy is the only time I have ever heard it sounding happy.

A little bit of Zen (74)

 

"An idea fully formed and put into action is more perfect than an idea that exists only as an idea."

The Buddha

I haven't been able to find a source for this quotation. And it sounds deeply fake to me. I think it is a wise and true concept; but I doubt if it can be reliably attributed to any Buddhist scripture.

Here it is.....!

 

For an Englishman like me, there is only one 'Best Christmas Song of All Time'; and it's certainly not the cringe-inducing Wham! or the saccharine Mariah Carey offerings that get so exasperatingly overplayed at this time of year. No, of course, it's 'Merry Xmas, Everybody!' by Slade - an actual celebration of the occasion, rather than just a routine love song cynically grafted into a seasonal setting, and just the right combination of simplistic structure but great melody and raucous rock energy to propel it into the stratosphere of ageless anthemic songs.  What would Christmas be without it?

Merry Christmas, Everybody!!!

And one final thing....

Dear Santa - I know you're very busy today; and I know I've already asked for a lot,.... but, if you can't give me back the match scores in FPL 'Player Info' or add 'defensive points' to the stats,.... could you at least see to it that the bastard bloody website doesn't keep logging me out 2 or 3 times a day?? 

Thank you!

That would make it such a lovely Christmas for all of us long-suffering FPL managers....

Probably too much to hope for, though.

Dear Santa - Could FPL show us how many 'defensive points' our players have got?

Another Seasonal wish - directed to the Gnomes (or Elves) at FPL Towers....

Over the years, we have, unfortunately grown used to - and begun to accept - the bizarre and exasperating fact that, while FPL's own stats summaries list the number of saves each goalkeeper has been credited with, they omit to include any mention of the number of points they've cumulatively received for those saves.

With the introduction of the opaque, bizarre, and unnecessary 'defensive points' this year, we really shouldn't be surprised to find that there's a similar oversight here: the FPL website records the number of eligible 'defensive contributions' ascribed to each player, but doesn't bother to tally the number of 'defensive points' they've earned over the season.

What gives, FPL???

An extra 'Little bit of Zen'

"The act of picking up and opening a book masks the counter-gesture that occurs at the same time: the involuntary act of not picking up and not opening every other book in the universe."

Pierre Bayard  -  'How To Talk About Books You Haven't Read'

I think this idea returned to my mind just now because I gave this book as a Christmas present to a crush of mine a few years ago (this is probably why I have such a limited love life...).  Bayard is a French literature professor (and philosopher and psychoanalyst?!) who achieved a modest popular success 15 or 20 years ago with this playful, elegantly witty little treatise on how reading maybe isn't all it's cracked up to be (I disagree with this central thesis; but he plainly wasn't entirely serious about his propositions to that effect).

One of most thought-provoking of the observations in his book is the disturbing reminder above that reading is inextricably linked with non-reading - that every positive choice we make inevitably contains within it a much larger number of (often regrettable) rejections and omissions. 

This is the essence of opportunity cost. And that, of course, is central to the game of Fantasy Premier League - as to all else. Every player we pick in our starting team leaves out three players on the bench; every player we choose to transfer in leaves hundreds more unselected. We have to try to simplify these decisions to make them seem less daunting, less intractable, less impossible. But I think most people tend to overdo this, to radically over-simplify their selection process - too readily dismissing alternative options that should at least be given a moment's serious consideration. We should not let the multiplicity of possible choices stun us into hopelessness and inertia, but rather try to see it as an impetus to choose more carefully.

Dear Santa - Can we have the match results back in FPL 'Player Info'?

 

A simple Seasonal wish - directed to the Gnomes (or Elves) at FPL Towers....

As I complained at the end of last season, the 'Player Info' screens on the FPL website are an absolute abomination. Of course, our FPL overlords didn't take my observations about this onboard and implement any of the simple improvements I suggested in that post - not even the very elementary one of, if you insist on it being a pop-up screen rather than a full screen to be opened in a new tab, you could at least make it a BIG pop-up, near full-screen size, to obviate the need for those maddeningly fiddly scroller bars.

In fact, they've contrived to make this horrendous aspect of their UI design even worse this year, by making it into an even smaller pop-up.

Because of this, I've rather got out of the habit of using this feature at all. I get nearly all my stats from elsewhere now - even though it can be a little bit of a pain-in-the-arse to have to dodge around multiple different sites (or to have to resort to Google to try to find a source for something) rather than being able to find everything you need easily within FPL's own website.

So it was that I've only recently noticed that in addition to making the 'Player Info' pop-up screens unusably titchy, they've also dropped the match scores for the gameweeks from the first label-column on the left. We must be grateful, I suppose, that they still deign to include the name of the opponent, and whether the fixture was home or away, and whether it ended in a win, loss, or draw... But no scoreline?? Really??

It has become hard to tell if the management of The Fantasy Premier League enterprise are very stupid, very lazy, or just utterly contemptuous of the game's users. I rather suspect it must be ALL THREE.

Sometimes.... BRAVERY pays off

LBJ's Brass Balls

I had always thought that this Gameweek 17 fixture, at home, against West Ham, would be Erling's Haaland's best prospect for a big haul in the first half of the season - and thus the prime opportunity for betting the Triple Captain chip on him.

But it would have been a very, very risky play to hang on this long, to ignore all the tempting rival options for the chip in earlier fixtures...

West Ham looked the worst team in the league at the start of the season; but they might have improved. And they have: quickly getting rid of the anodyne Graham Potter was a positive step, and there have been some promising signs for them under Nuno Espiritu Santo's stewardship since - although they're still often a bit ropey in defence, especially on set-pieces.

City might not have been able to maintain a strong title challenge this year - especially after they lost Rodri again so early on. But in fact, they have steadily got better and better, after a rather shakey start.

The big Viking might have picked up an injury by now, or suffered a bit of a dip in form; but in fact, he's having his best season yet, maintaining an astonishing level of consistency in output all the way through to the middle of the football year.

So - waiting till now to use the Triple Captain on him.... has paid off very nicely! But damn, you needed cojones to hang on for this long!! 

And it probably wasn't the smart move for this chip. Waiting this long was too big a risk; and if the plan had gone awry at the last minute, because of a late injury to Haaland, you'd have few other remaining options for using the chip, with just two more gameweeks in its validity period after this one.

If you enjoy a big success on the Triple Captain chip - or any of the bonus chips - you should maintain a due sense of humility. 

A one-off punt like this always has a bigger chance of going horribly wrong than it does of succeeding. And if you wait until the very tail-end of their availability window to play one of the bonus chips, the chance of that play going very, very wrong is greatly increased. 

A big return from a chip - however 'likely' it seemed - is always to a large extent LUCKY.

[The picture at the top is of a giant 'Brass Balls' sculpture, supposedly those of US President Lyndon Johnson (who famously complained of his trousers always being too tight in the crotch!), recently commissioned as a joke by John Oliver (standing next to the huge hanging scrotum here), the presenter of award-winning Sunday night political comedy show 'Last Week Tonight'.]

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 17

 

I always think of December as 'Random Month': mounting exhaustion, mostly dreadful weather, and a slew of unpredictable 'rest rotations' lead to some yo-yo-ing form and a lot of unexpected results. The seasonal injury crisis is starting to get really bad. And several clubs are also now reeling from the departure of some of their best players to the African Cup of Nations (Fulham, Sunderland, and Manchester United are likely to suffer the most, I suspect).

It was very much the proverbial 'game of two halves' at St James' Park, with Newcastle getting the wind in their sails when Woltemade put them ahead after just 3 minutes. A ramshackle Chelsea can count themselves lucky not to have been 4 or 5 down by half-time, rather than only 2 behind; Woltemade spurned a couple of good chances to complete his hattrick before the break! The visitors were unlucky not to have the chance to pull one back from a penalty, though, when Gordon clearly handled the ball on the edge of his own box; the argument in his favour was presumably that the ball had bounced up from his thigh on to his lower arm; but it wasn't travelling that fast, and he did seem to make a deliberate movement to control the ball. This did feel like another pretty egregious example of The Unwritten Law since the beginning of last season that Chelsea - and Palmer! - are not to be awarded any penalties, if there's any way at all of avoiding the decision. However, things balanced up again in the second half when, although Chelsea were now dominant, Newcastle had two good chances thwarted by blatant fouls in the box. Chalobah's challenge on Gordon was presumably classified as a 'shoulder-to-shoulder' contact, but it was actually a violent stepping across and into the player, making thigh-to-thigh and knee-to-knee contact with so much force that it smacked Gordon off his feet (and extended his knee-joint inwards in a way that might well have ruptured the ligaments, and must surely at least have strained them pretty badly): a horrible foul, and an unarguable penalty. Later on, Reece James made a heroic last-ditch sliding block on Harvey Barnes; but, while he is to be commended for his exceptional effort to regain the ground to cover, he didn't appear to get any of the ball; and even if he did, I don't think that could excuse the way he wiped out the player. James was also extraordinarily lucky not to get sent off for a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' offence just outside the box in the closing minutes of the game: his tug on Barnes's arm was very slight, but it was unmistakeable, and it did crucially impede his progress. A case could be made that the ball was running away from Barnes and Sanchez was always going to get there first; but if his run hadn't been interrupted, that might have been a bit of a 50/50 call, and the keeper might have blinked and backed off a little, rather than risk a high-speed collision. It is absolutely bizarre that James didn't at least get a yellow card for such a cynical foul. There were a number of other very bad decisions in this game, including a couple of ugly challenges that might - probably should - have been straight-red incidents. Andy Madley - and his VAR team - had a horrible day at the office here, and got the gameweek off to a blazing start on the old Luck-o-Meter! Although Chelsea were much improved in the second-half, and had the home side on the rack for much of it, Newcastle surged back gamely in the last quarter of an hour, mounting wave after wave of attacks; Barnes's flying volley in the dying minutes was only inches wide of the post - and Newcastle would probably have been the more deserving winners overall, if only narrowly.

Bournemouth looked fairly comfortably in control against struggling Burnley, but only another fine goal from Semenyo - his second in five days, which might suggest that he has recovered the goalscoring form he was showing at the start of the season - was sepaating the teams; and Iraola will no doubt be dumbfounded that his boys somehow allowed Armanda Broja to power home a free header from a short corner routine in the final seconds of regular time. A valuable point for Burnley; but, with Leeds suddenly resurgent, they are now looking like the weakest side in the relegation battle.

Brighton, as feared, had to do without Danny Welbeck, who's been suffering with back problems. This left them woeifully short of firepower, although they were well below their best in this one and didn't even create very much; their two best chances fell to Yasin Ayari, who blazed them both over the top. Sunderland were also dogged but uninspired, and created no threat apart from a powerful header from Alderete which brought the save of the day out of Verbruggen. Dan Ballard was very lucky to get only a yellow card for a very late and high challenge on Kostoulas. Otherwise, this was a pretty uneventful game.

City predictably rolled over West Ham, and those who bravely hung on for this fixture to bet their Triple Captain chip on Haaland were well rewarded; the big Viking, in fact, came very close to bagging another hattrick late in the game, as well as playing in Reijnders for the second. Foden looked lively again, but, fairly inevitably, couldn't keep his astonishing FPL scoring streak going. He was unlucky, though, to miss out on an assist for the opening goal because Haaland uncharacteristically failed to convert the chance he'd given him at the first attempt and had to follow up on the rebound from Areola's save.

Brentford worked patiently to break down Wolves, and were eventually rewarded with two very slick finishes from Lewis-Potter, who is looking like he might thrive during Dango Ouattara's AFCON absence, and may be becoming a very appealing option in FPL - especially as he's classified as a 'defender'. Kelleher was unfortunate to give away a penalty late on, but was then gifted a chance to save it by a truly awful spot-kick from Strand Larsen: a very lucky break for any FPL managers who'd relied on the keeper for a Free Hit or Bench Boost play this week.

Spurs put on a spirited display against visiting Liverpool, despite being reduced to 10 men by Xavi Simons's deserved dismissal for a ridiculous challenge through the back of his countryman Van Dijk after just half an hour. After going behind to an Isak goal early in the second-half, they actually produced some good chances of their own, but their hopes in the game were soon dashed by a second goal from Ekitike. Richarlison's consolation goal in the 83rd minute, after Liverpool repeatedly failed to clear the ball in a protracted goalmouth scramble following a corner, gave the home side some slight hope; and they even managed one more good chance from Odobert, well saved by Alisson in the dying minutes, even after going down to just 9 men as Romero got himself sent off for a second booking (a relatively trivial but petulant swipe at Konate that might well have been interpreted as a 'violent conduct' red-card offence). In general, the refereeing was pretty good in this one, with no major controversies. The big news for FPL is that it looks as though Isak has probably done his knee ligaments in the act of scoring his goal; unfortunately, Van de Ven's attempt to block scissored him and pinned his left leg, bending it sideways. Although he managed to hobble off the pitch without calling for the stretcher, it did look as if this might well be a season-ending injury.

Arsenal were somewhat fortunate to hang on to the league lead for Christmas, with another unconvincing display that was just good enough at Everton. Trossard cracked a good effort against a post in the second-half, and near the end Saka nearly curled a corner straight in, which had to be clawed away from under the bar by Pickford; but apart from that, the title frontrunners didn't turn their dominance into many clearcut chances, and were lucky that O'Brien's silly handball had gifted them the lead from the penalty spot. The home side looked much more dangerous in the second-half, and really should have had a penalty when Zubimendi clumsily ran into the back of Barry on the edge of the box - yet another game-changing bad decision on one of the worst days of refereeing this season! Some felt the later incident when Saliba clipped Barry's heel as they both stretched to kick a high ball was an even stronger shout, although I found myself - for once - in sympathy with the VAR appraisal that it was an insignificant contact. But I'm not sure what the precise wording of the rules and guidelines on these situations is any more; if any kind of foot-on-foot contact is supposed to be a strict liability offence, then it should have been a penalty. Superstitious Arsenal fans may now be getting a bit nervous that being top at Christmas is not a good omen for them; they've been here in the last two seasons as well, and twice during the Wenger era, and have not yet gone on to lift the trophy.

Another absolutely atrocious decision in the Leeds v Palace game, when Tyrick Mitchell went sliding into Aaronson at the front corner of the box and wiped him out; it was so 'out of control', it probably should have been a red card; and he got absolutely nothing of the ball, so it was undeniably a penalty - but the Palace defender didn't even get a yellow card for it. And once more VAR sat on their hands and said nothing. It didn't ultimately make any difference to the match outcome as the home side bulldozed their weary-looking visitors aside. It is rather baffling how Palace, hitherto one of the best defensive sides in the league, seemed to have no idea how to combat the home side's numerous set-piece routines here, especially from Ampadu's long throws; even more baffling that, with three central defenders, they left the not very physically imposing Adam Wharton to mark Calvert-Lewin. Many FPL managers may have been relying on Dean Henderson for a Free Hit or Bench Boost play this week, as Palace were one of the favourites to keep a clean sheet in this batch of fixtures; but the England No. 2 really did not have a good game here.

Villa and Manchester United produced one of the most entertaining games of the weekend on Sunday. United are starting to show much more cohesion and incisiveness in the final third, their press becoming much more effective, and Cunha finally starting to threaten the goal again (although still a long way from the form he was showing at Wolves last year). But Amorim's protestation afterwards that they were the better side looks delusional; they still lacked any steel in the middle (Ugarte is a joke at this level, and this role is really not Bruno's forte), and were often shockingly poor in defence. United did indeed have probably the better of the chances, especially as they pushed to get back into the game during the last 20 minutes - and Cunha headed wide from one of the best openings in the game. The difference was ultimately Morgan Rogers, who produced two lovely curling shots to undo the visitors (and they'd only really briefly got back into the game due to Matty Cash's uncharacteristic error, giving away possession on the edge of his own box). The most significant aspect of the game for FPL was Bruno Fernandes becoming the latest victim of the seasonal hamstring tweaks: he withdrewfrom the game at half-time, and now seems likely to be out for at least 2-3 weeks. United are so thin in midfield (Kobbie Mainoo was completely missing from the squad, allegedly suffering with a calf-strain - though you wonder if he's getting ready to leave the club in January) that they had to replace Bruno with centre-back Lisandro Martinez; he didn't too badly, and tried a pop at goal from 25 yards that went fairly close - I can see him continuing in the role, alongside Casemiro, while Bruno's missing. No questionable refereeing here, for once. The one major talking point of the game was why Emi Martinez was allowed to stay on the pitch when he must obviously have suffered at least a mild concussion after getting clouted in the side of the head by Cash's knee mid-way through the first-half. The game's supposed 'concussion protocols' are still not as clear, as strict, as protective as they ought to be.

 

The gameweek's final match-up on Monday evening looked to be quite an entertaining encounter, with plenty of fluid end-to-end football - but not many high-quality chances for either side (although Raul and Igor Jesus may both feel they should have picked up one or two goals). In the end, it was decided by Douglas Luiz clumsily giving away a penalty deep in first-half stoppage time - a slight contact, but an undenable one, as he lunged for the ball while sat on the ground and caught the back of Kevin's heel. However, Forest should arguably have had a penalty themselves in the second-half when Raul cannily nudged Milenkovic in the back and sent him sprawling as he jumped to try to head home a cross to the far post. Fulham's Brazilian winger Kevin looks as though he could prove a handful, if now given a run of regular starts; and it's nice to see Antonee Robinson starting to look back to his old self at left-back at last.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' isn't looking quite so crazy as it usually has so far this season, but few would have been expecting Ethan Ampadu or Keane Lewis-Potter - or Dominic Calvert-Lewin! - to crash the list. The large number of FPL managers playing one of the bonus chips - perhaps most commonly, the Triple Captain on Haaland; but there were other possible options for that chip this weekend, and a lot of people were also taking a chance on their Bench Boost or Free Hit, as they're running out of time to use them - will wildly skew the points distribution this week, and considerably bump up the 'average' score. Unlike many recent weeks, a lot of people - nearly all the 'better' managers that I check up on -  are substantially beating the 'global average' of 66 this time: the general range seems to be about 75-90 pooints, although quite a few people have been able to do 15-20 points better than that if they played a chip successfully. Also. unlike last week, there were hardly any in-game injuries, early substitutions or surprise omissions. And Leeds's big win over Palace has been the only surprising result so far.

However, that was one of the worst Saturdays of refereeing we've seen for a very long time (of course, there were a lot of games), with 5 or 6 egregious penalty awards somehow not given, and a number of players very, very lucky to escape red cards. Andy Madley's horror-show at Newcastle on its own probably would probably make this ganeweek at least a 6 or 7, and I think overall it's looking like an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.