The trouble with Pep

 

Pep Guardiola is, of course, one of the most innovative and influential coaches the game has ever seen; and - until a few months ago! - pretty much the most successful. But all of that has suddenly changed with City's remarkable meltdown since the end of October.

I am not particularly surprised by this turn of events; well, surprised, perhaps, by its suddenness and its catastrophic severity, but.... the only big surprise for me is not that it's happened, but that it took so long to come around. I think the seeds of Pep's self-destruction have been apparent for a while, and are inherent in the management 'style' that has brought him so much success thus far.

Here, I think, are some of the main reasons for the spectacular collapse we've seen unfold at City:

1)  The adamantine ego. Pep's strength of personality, his massive self-confidence and force of will, are obviously among the key factors in his exceptional success as a modern football manager. But they also evidently make him a rather prickly character, not always easy to get along with. And he has sometimes appeared to be rather petty in his dealings with his players - the very public spat with Yaya Touré being the most conspicuous instance, but surely not the only one. His rather brutal dismissal of Joe Hart (even before he had anyone decent to replace him - Willy Caballero, remember him?!), the protracted sulky controntation with Touré, and the frequent sidelining even of such giants in the team as David Silva, Sergio Aguero, and Vincent Kompany (although there were injury issues etc. behind a lot of that, it did often seem that he was reluctant to make use of them even when they were available) made it appear that he was prima-donna-ishly attempting to set his own stamp on the club by ostentiatiously shunting aside all the core contributors to its previous success. And some of the players who've left City during his reign - notably Leroy Sane and Raheem Sterling - have expressed a dissatisfaction with their treatment by him.

2)  The finicky perfectionism. "Don't let 'perfect' become the enemy of 'good'," a wise old saying goes. And I think this might be Pep's tragic flaw - or one of them. It's another thing that not only may occasionally harm results, but potentially harms his relationships with players... and fans. When you see Liverpool players being interviewed about their time under Klopp, you don't just see professional respect and gratitude towards the man, but something like adulation. When Pep's City players talk about him, there's usually a lot of positive emotion there too - certainly the respect - but it doesn't generally sound quite so warm; and it's often undercut with hints of exasperation at his obsessiveness, his perhaps excessive attention to 'small details'.

3)  The 'over-thinking'. While I wouldn't question the astuteness of Pep's understanding of the game in general, there have clearly been occasions where a compulsion to tinker with his tactical set-up has proven to be unnecessary and detrimental. At least two or three times, an undue 'respect' for the opposition in the latter stages of the Champions League has prompted a drastic change in approach which backfired and led to a premature exit from the competition.

4)  The constant 'evolution'. Now again, this isn't an outright bad thing: it's a good thing.... that can be overdone. The ability and willingness to develop the team's tractical system, to respond to new challenges from rivals and stay continually fresh (and surprising to opponents) is admirable... up to a point. But Pep seems to have been introducing a radical change of approach almost every season, and sometimes even a series of significant tweaks within the course of one season; and this is perhaps a bit too much, a bit too often. It makes it sometimes hard for the team to get settled in a particular system. And, even more importantly, it can make it difficult to recruit appropriate players - if there's an uncertainty about how the team will be playing next year, what kind of profiles they'll be needing. It probably also makes many players reluctant to accept a move to City - my climactic point here, soon - because they realise that, however good they are, they might soon become redundant under Pep's latest scheme. One year he likes attacking full-backs; then he suddenly decides that they're obsolete, and he'd rather play 3 or 4 (or 5?) centre-backs instead; then he thinks full-backs might be OK after all, but he wants them to invert into deep midfield rather than pushing up the flanks; then he decides that maybe he'd like at least one of them to join the attacking line, but more centrally rather than out wide....  It is head-spinning. (These switches of approach have been particularly pronounced in defence; and this is maybe part of the reason why there has been such a revolving door of top international defenders passing across City's books in recent years: Pedro Porro, Angelino, Eric Garcia, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Aymeric Laporte, Joao Cancelo - all unceremoniously shown the door!)

5)  An ultra-conservatism in selection.  While 'Pep Roulette' has become a notorious concept in the world of FPL (the idea that almost any City player is a risky pick because Guardiola's squad rotations can be so frequent and so unpredictable), this distracts us from the deeper truth that in many ways Pep is extremely reluctant to make certain alterations to his team. Most of his changes come in the defensive positions, or among his wide attackers, where he's usually had multiple options; but in other areas, he's often appeared to be afraid of giving key players a rest. OK, we can see that players like Ruben Dias, Rodri, and Kevin DeBruyne are 'irreplaceable' - but you have to try to do without them occasionally, both for the sake of their stamina, and for the harmony of the squad... giving the 'fringe' players enough minutes to keep them happy. Between these two extremes - rotating like crazy in positions where he's got multiple options, and being unwilling to rotate at all in positions where he's got a vital player - many of his squad have sooner or later become disenchanted and sought a move. I mentioned at the end of the point above some of the defenders who've got fed up of him (or he of them...); but there are perhaps even more examples among the attacking players who eventually tired of the limited or erratic minutes he was giving them - Leroy Sane, Riyad Mahrez, Ferran Torres, Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus, Julian Alvarez. This problem is perhaps particularly noticeable in regard to promoting youth team talents to regular starting responsibility. Poor Phil Foden is still being regularly dropped or constantly shunted around different roles (despite having just been 'Player of the Season' last year, when he was mostly able to take the responsibility of the central playmaker, due to DeBruyne's extended absence), and perpetually having to play second-fiddle to DeBruyne whenever he's fit - after 4 or 5 seasons as a more-than-capable understudy, he still hasn't been given the confidence-boost of a regular lead role in the team. And I kind of feel he's been a fool to stay there so long: his career - particularly in the international arena - could probably have blossomed more at another club. The example of fellow Academy graduates like Jadon Sancho, Morgan Rogers, and - most trenchantly - Cole Palmer, who left City for better things, must surely now rankle with him. (And one wonders how long youngsters like Oscar Bobb and Jason McAtee, and even current Pep darling Rico Lewis, will stick around, given this history of being glacially slow to fully integrate younger talents.)

6)  The chronic risk-aversion. While Pep's City have sometimes been quite exciting to watch, it's usually been because of the outsanding individual creativity they have at their disposal, rather than the overall style of play. His relentless stat-crunching, the arid quest for optimum efficiency, the preference for hanging on to the ball (even if you're not going to do much with it!) rather than doing anything that might slightly increase your chance of conceding a turnover.... these things often make for a rather dull and robotic experience for the spectator. And possibly for some of the players too; I suspect that could also be the reason so many attacking players have become disillusioned at City and left in the last few years. (Jack Grealish was the club's most expensive acquisition to date, at a reported fee of £100 million; but he couldn't get a regular start for Pep until he'd learned to be a 'defensive' winger rather than an attacking one! I love Jack, but he is a bear-of-very-little-brain; the move to City was not good for his career, and he should not have taken it.)

7)  That one big gap in his experience. Although Pep's revolutionised the modern game and won all the silverware there is to win.... he hasn't previously had a long tenure at a single club; in fact, he's now been at City for longer than he held his three previous coaching jobs combined. Thus, he's not had to deal much before even with 'succession planning' to replace a few key players, much less with remaking an entire squad over the course of half a decade or a decade. And this is the challenge he's now facing at City. The age balance of the squad is all wrong: DeBruyne is 33 and increasingly injury-prone, Walker and Gundogan are now 34, and appear no longer to have the legs for top-level competition, Bernardo Silva and John Stones are 30, Ake and Akanji will soon be turning 30; there are a lot of great young talents in the squad, but only a few - like Dias and Grealish - are in their 'prime' of mid- to late-20s. Now, player recruitment might be partly - or entirely?? - outside of Pep's control; these days, the Director of Football at a club often takes the lead on transfer trading (it is perhaps not coincidental that City's DoF, Txiki Begiristain, will be stepping down at the end of this season, after more than 12 years in the position). But many of City's acquisitions in recent years have been excessively expensive and ludicrously unfit-for-purpose (Jack Grealish?? Kalvin Phillips??). And the club has signally failed to procure any credible emergency back-up for Rodri or Haaland (they desperately need a 'Plan B' for the next time the big Viking gets injured, beyond trying to play Foden or Silva as a 'false 9'....).

But wait, does all of this tie together into some over-arching flaw in Pep's Manchester City? Yes, I think it does. 

The tactical aridity and the apparent distrust of attacking flair (too 'risky'!); the often thorny relationships with some players; the frequent reluctance to give regular starts to younger players (or players new to the club); the numerous seismic shifts in the tactical formation; the over-frequent rotation in some positions and complete lack of it in others; the large number of dissatisfied players leaving the club - these factors all contribute to Manchester City not being such an attractive destination as you'd expect it to be.... with its unique record of success in the English game and internationally, its revered and peerlessly innovative coach, and its near-bottomless coffers. Some players just don't want to go there, because they see how difficult it can be to get in the team, to stay in the team.... or to play the kind of football they enjoy playing, to 'play their own game' in this team. (You think Lamine Yamal or Nico Williams or Jamal Musiala would ever consider a move to City?? No way!!! Not if they have any sense, anyway.)

And the core failing I see in all of this is.... an exclusive focus on one-game-at-a-time, rather than the medium- or long-term good of the squad and the club. It seems to me that Pep is so afraid of failure in any single game that he can't bring himself to contemplate playing a 'non-ideal' eleven.... or a 'non-ideal' (in his view) formation and gameplan. Even if DeBruyne, in his dotage, is still better than Foden, you need to rest him more often - to get the best out of Foden, and encourage other young players coming up through your youth ranks. And you might have more chance of capturing a good alternate for Rodri if you showed a willingness to occasionally play a double-pivot - allowing both to play alongside each other - even if that's not your conception of an ideal system for this next game. Damn, yes, sometimes you have to be willing to put out a slightly 'weaker' side or utilise a slightly 'weaker' system for the long-term good of the squad. Pep has never done this; and so the City recruitment team have found it difficult/impossible to attract the new players they need for cover and rebuilding. And 'suddenly'.... everything's falling apart. Suddenly?? No, it's been a long time coming.

Oh, and there is one other Premier League manager who seems to me to demonstrate almost all of these same qualities! Unsurprisingly.... it is Pep's 'Mini-Me', Snr Arteta. Last summer's transfer window, when four fantastic young back-up players all quit in a huff, and the club was unable to land any of the big names it was after (well, not the crucial ones, anyway: I think Calafiori will prove to have been a good acquisition, but he didn't seem all that essential), was a disaster for Arsenal, leaving them with a significantly weaker squad than they had last season. And why did that happen, Mikel?

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott:

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW25

Damn, it seems like ages since we last had any EPL football! In the last two weeks, the winter transfer window has finally closed (with the usual flurry of late business on the final day), the delayed Merseyside derby has been caught up, the finalists for the League Cup Final have been determined, the new play-off stage for the European competitions has got under way, .... and the 4th Round of the FA Cup has inevitably produced a few more injury worries for us to ponder. Oh, and the damned new 'Assistant Manager' chip has been available for the first time in this Gameweek just past (and a lot of people were using it already...).

The biggest news for FPL is that Liverpool prevailed on the FA to move their GW29 fixture against Villa (the weekend they'll play the League Cup Final against Newcastle) forward rather than backwards - 'anteponing' it! (I really can't ever recall that happening before!!), so it's now scheduled for Wednesday 19th February..... making this a Double Gameweek for Liverpool and Villa (and the Scousers' second in successive weeks).

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 25?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Gabriel Martinelli came off in the FA Cup defeat to Newcastle last week with a hamstring problem; 'not too serious', but likely to keep him out for 3 or 4 weeks. Meanwhile, Kai Havertz has apparently picked up a similar - but reportedly much more severe - problem while Arsenal were taking a break for some warm-weather training.... which looks as though it could keep him out for most of the rest of the season. (Grim news for Arsenal, coming hot on the heels of their embarrassing failure to land any new players in the transfer window. At least this presumably means that Ethan Nwaneri and Leandro Trossard will be getting reliable minutes for a while; that could be interesting for FPL.)

Ezri Konsa also hobbled off with a leg muscle problem in the Cup win over Spurs; again, Emery thinks 'not too serious', but he is a major doubt for the current gameweek. (This presumably means that new loan signing Axel Disasi might come straight in, as Pau Torres is expected to be out for a few more weeks, and Tyrone Mings has only just resumed training after suffering a jarred knee a couple of weeks ago.) Ollie Watkins, withdrawn at half-time against Wolves with a groin muscle problem two weeks ago, has apparently resumed light training in the last couple of days, but is looking doubtful to be fully involved in the next two matches.

Lewis Dunk had to come off in the surprise Cup win against Chelsea last week with 'sore ribs', and seems unlikely to be available for Brighton this weekend.

Brentford keeper Mark Flekken missed the League game against Spurs two weeks ago because of strained side muscles, and continues to be a doubt this week, with his deputy Hakon Valdimarsson looking likely to step in again.

Both Nico Jackson and his understudy Marc Guiu picked up hamstring problems in the game against West Ham two weeks ago; Jackson is now thought likely to be out until the end of March, Guiu possibly even longer. (Could perhaps be an opportunity for 'forgotten man' Christopher Nkunku to become a surprise late-season FPL asset...?)

Ismaila Sarr missed Palace's Cup game on Monday night with an illness, Eddie Nketiah with a twisted ankle, and Eberechi Eze was simply treated to a precautionary rest (as his long-standing foot injury is still bothering him) - but Glasner thinks all three should be OK for the visit of Everton.

Everton's star man recently, Illiman Ndiaye, went off in Wednesday's rambunctious Merseyside derby after 20-odd minutes, having suffered a knock to his knee; no word yet on how serious it might be. Full-back Nathan Patterson is also missing again, with a hamstring problem picked up in training before last week's FA Cup games.

Reiss Nelson was apparently on the verge of being eligible for a comeback for Fulham, but has just injured his other hamstring in training and is now expected to be unavailable for more several weeks.

Ipswich's Sammie Szmodics, only just back from an ankle injury, had to come off in their FA Cup tie with a similar problem - possibly a recurrence of the same thing - and is now likely to be out again for some weeks.

Jamie Vardy and Jannik Vestergaard both missed Leicester's Cup game against Manchester United with training-ground knocks, but are expected to be available again this week.

Joe Gomez went off with a hamstring problem in Liverpool's shock Cup defeat to Plymouth Argyle: not 'that serious', but likely to make him a doubt for a few weeks at least (though you wouldn't expect him to be making any starts in the League while Konate and Van Dijk are fit). Cody Gakpo might also be a doubt, complaining of a knock when he came off against Everton.

Jack Grealish and Manuel Akanji both had to come off in the Champions League defeat to Real Madrid with a muscle injuries - yet more woe for Pep!

There seems to have been no official announcement yet on the knee injury suffered by Lisandro Martinez in the defeat against Palace two weeks ago, but it looked very much like an ACL tear - which would obviously keep him out until next season. (With Luke Shaw having apparently picked up yet another muscle injury in training, this at least surely means that Mazraoui will now be assured of a regular start on the left side of the back three - his best position - with Maguire and De Ligt as his preferred partners. A bit of stablility and continuity in the defence selections can only be a good thing for United.)

Sven Botman is again a doubt, after complaining of pain in his knee after the League Cup semi-final win over Arsenal. With Dan Burn picking up a muscle problem in the FA Cup tie against Brimingham, Newcastle are possibly looking spread thin at the back again. Joelinton will also be missing for a few weeks, after having to come off with a knee problem in the League game against Fulham at the start of the momth. At least Anthony Gordon has been spotted back in training this week, after missing the Birmingham game with a 'knock'.

Southampton defender Taylor Harwood-Bellis missed the FA Cup game after coming off at half-time in the League win at Ipswich two weeks ago with an ankle injury - should be in contention again this week, though.

The Spurs injury list gets even longer, with defender Radu Dragusin now out for the season after suffering an ACL injury in their Europa League game against Elfsborg; while Richarlison seems to have picked up a significant calf-muscle injury in the League Cup defeat to Liverpool.

Lucas Paqueta missed the Chelsea game two weeks ago with a groin problem, and is still a doubt.

Hwang Hee-Chan had to go off with a hamstring problem in Wolves's FA Cup win over Blackburn, but Pereira didn't think it was too serious.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Abdoulaye Doucoure and Curtis Jones are banned for this weekend after the little post-game fracas at Goodison Park on Wednesday, for which they both picked up second yellow cards after the final whistle.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

It looks rather as if the occasionally calamitous Robert Sanchez has finally lost his place in the Chelsea goal to Filip Jorgensen - although Maresca has been making noises about the Spaniard being 'given a rest' rather than dropped.... so, maybe he'll yet make a comeback. With Chelsea's recent form, not a very attractive pick anyway!

The recently even more disastrous Ari Muric at Ipswich will surely immediately lose his place beween the sticks to promising new signing Alex Palmer.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

The uncannily rejuvenated Everton stole all the attention this past gameweek, with a convincing win over Leicester and a fighting draw against Liverpool on Wednesday night. While James Tarkowski hogged the headlines with his improbable last-gasp equaliser in the derby, I thought his young partner Jarrad Branthwaite produced the better all-round defensive performance in that game; but the real standout was centre-forward Beto, who really seems to have found the 'magic boots' and is now playing with a swaggering confidence. Given that Everton now have a run of pretty soft fixtures until they have to face Liverpool again at the beginning of April, and that he only costs 4.9 million at the moment, I think he's definitely worth considering for a cheap third-seat filler.

I'm also intrigued to see if Ipswich can rouse themselves to fight off the threat of relegation. For me, they are the only club that has done really good transfer business in the window - bringing in three players, creative midfielder Julio Enciso, nippy winger Jaden Philogene, and an excellent goalie in Alex Palmer: players who might - almost certainlly will - start immediately, and perhaps have an immediate impact. The only other new transfer who excites my hopeful curiosity is Brighton's outstanding young forward Evan Ferguson - loaned to West Ham, where he really ought to have an excellent chance of regular starts.

The Sheep are all dumbly bleating about what a great prospect Unai Emery is for the Assistant Manager Chip this week - just because Villa have two games. It's nonsense, of course. Even at home, and with a full-strength squad, you wouldn't fancy Villa to have much of a chance against Liverpool; but particularly not when they might be missing their star striker, and four of their preferred defenders. This is in effect only a 'single gameweek' for them! (And honestly, I fancy Ipswich to have a better chance of getting an upset result against them, than they do against Liverpool.)

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott; the dratted new 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now - and I am urging everyone to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use this silly chip. 

And if you can't bring yourself to do either of those things, please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A corner turned?

Manchester City fans - and FPL managers who own any of their players - seem to be taking much encouragement from their emphatic 6-0 win this weekend.

But is this one success really a sign that their troubles are over? Are they really that much better?

Well, here are some of the potential positives:

Kyle Walker's gone now; that can only be a good thing. His pace and stamina have looked to be waning rapidly of late, and he's really begun to look as if he's past it at Premier League level. His last few performances, certainly, have been quite dreadful (perhaps he's also been distracted by his turbulent private life, or greedy thoughts of getting ready to take the Saudi money in the twilight of his career?), and he had become a liability to the team.

But Ruben Dias is back - that's HUGE, immediately makes them look so much more solid and well-organised and confident in defence.

Ederson's back too. Though Ortega is a a more than competent replacement (probably, in fact, as good as Ederson in most aspects of the goalkeeping craft; an excellent shot-stopper), Ederson is the man the rest of the team have been used to playing with most of the time, so his return to the side will also probably inject some comfortable - and confidence-building - familiarity to the rear of the lineup, a feeling which has been lacking of late. And his stellar distribution adds another dimension to City's game - allowing them the ready option to abandon the slow build-up from the back occasionally and try more direct medium-length or even long balls up the park... with sufficient accuracy to produce a high chance that they will reach, and be retained by a City player. (It does make you wonder why he was out of the side for so long in the first place, though. There may have been some small injury issues behind some of it, but it did look also as if Pep had some kind of a 'problem' with him for a while - a matter of not liking his 'attitude' about something, perhaps?)

Matheus Nunes is still struggling to adapt to the full-back role, but he's an intelligent and versatile player who should be able to master it eventually. And anything is an improvement on Walker....

Dropping Rico Lewis is also probably going to make the team stronger. I am a big fan - as Pep evidently is - of his enthusiasm and workrate, his game intelligence, the incisive contribution he can make in advanced midfield areas. But he's still very young and inexperienced, and he just doesn't have the physicality to be able to dominate in individual duels; playing him as a makeshift full-back, particularly when out-of-touch Walker was on the other flank, or alongside on the right of the defence, was asking for trouble. He had, unfortunately, become - yet another - obvious defensive weakness that opponents can ruthlessly target.

Gundogan and Kovacic playing together as a double-pivot, and trying to sit a little deeper, does appear to provide the potential for a little more solidity in central midfield.

Kevin DeBruyne is starting to look something like his best again now. It has taken a while for him to get his 'match-fitness' back, and his contributions in his first few games back from injury had been rather intermittent. But in this one, he was a constant threat and supplied three assists.

And damn, yes, Erling Haaland is looking as though he has definitively rediscovered his scoring touch. (Although I've always tended to think that there was never much wrong with his form or confidence. He'd just been starved of service while the rest of the team was floundering so badly over the previous couple of months.)

And perhaps best of all, Phil Foden has not just got his scoring boots back, but seems to have rekindled his joie de vivre as well. This is the first time in a long while we've seen him looking so happy and confident, showing such exuberant joy on the pitch.

And a lot of people are also saying that the arrival of the pacey Egyptian forward Omar Marmoush could have a transformative effect for City in the near future. Adam Monk of FourFourTwo rates his prospects with the club very highly. He does appear to have a skills profile and versatility somewhat similar to the departed Julian Alvarez - perhaps enabling him to sometimes play alongside Haaland as a strike partner, as well as to fulfill a number of different attacking midfield roles through the middle or on either flank (rather than being merely an emergency replacement for Haaland).

Yes, there's a lot to take comfort from there. But I believe there are many, rather stronger counter-points:

Well, that victory was only against Ipswich; and Ipswich were really, really poor in that game - just gave up the ghost after the first couple of goals. Proving that you're not one of the four worst teams in the League isn't really evidence of any seismic shift in performance.

Dias still doesn't look quite 100% - and you worry if Pep might be rushing him back into the fray just a little bit, perhaps putting him at risk of a recurrence of his injury. (So, indeed, it would appear! The poor bloke broke down during the PSG game just a few days later, and had to be withdrawn at half-time. Ooops!)  Also, excellent though he is, he can't hold things together at the back entirely on his own; he needs Stones and Ake to be back in action too.

Matheus Nunes is not a natural full-back, and is struggling to adapt to the position at the moment (it's probably not helping when Pep switches him from one side to the other), and he has been making a lot of mistakes thus far. Also, it just seems to be a bit of a waste of his talents; it is quite baffling that Pep doesn't seem to fancy playing him in his best position in central midfield - especially since that is the area of the pitch where his worst problems are manifesting themselves. [JJ Bull of The Athletic recently suggested that he'd do better to reunite with Ruben Amorim at Manchester United and play in a double-pivot with Manuel Ugarte there.]

While Rico Lewis has occasionally looked a bit of a liability defensively, he's nevertheless been one of City's best players this season, and it is therefore, I think, unfortunate to abandon him completely. There ought to be a way to make use of him in a more advanced role.

Gundogan, unfortunately, now looks hopelessly out-of-his-depth at the top level, just does not have any legs any more. Pep seems to be guilty of a misplaced loyalty here, or an exaggerated gratitude for his past contributions, or is perhaps overrating the value of experience. Playing Gundogan as a defensive midfielder now has much the same effect as Casemiro has whenever Amorim is forced to field him at United: it's just an open invitation to the opponents to come marauding through the central areas at will.

And Mateo Kovacic, bless him, is a fantastic progressive No. 6, great passer of the ball, dangerous when pushing forward himself - but doesn't have a defensive bone in his body; he completely lacks the all-around awareness, the instinct to spot danger that is required for a stopper role. Persisting with him as a Rodri replacement is the main root of City's current problems. And those problems are NOT going to go away unless they can acquire a top-class defensive midfielder in this transfer window. (And I think they might have to settle for a loan deal on that - because who's going to transfer into a club to be a perpetual understudy to someone like Rodri for the next five years?)

DeBruyne still doesn't look 100% fit (not sure if this is so, but I read somewhere that he might have a small hernia - much like the problem that so impeded Son Heung-min last season; not a major disability, but a constant, niggling inhibitor of performance). And he's starting to show his age. It is probably not reasonable to expect him to ever quite regain the pinnacle of performance he was demonstrating a few years ago.

Haaland, of course, could still deliver some big goalscoring returns. But he's not the kind of player who - like Salah or Palmer or Mbeumo.... - creates chances for himself out of nothing; he needs good regular service. And I fear he's still likely to be often lacking that from this City side. Moreover, game states can have a big impact on patterns of play and on a striker's mentality: there's a lot of extra pressure on the main goalscorer when you're chasing the game - and City look like they might still quite often be chasing games.

I am a huge fan of Phil Foden, and I - more than anyone! - really hope that he has turned a corner this season, that he has ironed something out in his relationship with Pep that has restored his confidence, and that he is going to continue now to play with the effervescence he showed last Sunday. But that hope is still fragile. Phil thrived on the security of being an almost invariable starter for most of last season, in DeBruyne's absence, and on being given the responsibility of being the club's primary playmaker. And he thrives on being able to play in central areas as a highly mobile No. 10. If Pep is going to constantly swap his starting position around, and mostly ask him to play out wide on one of the flanks, I fear this new flowering of goalscoring form may soon wither again.

And I think it may be unreasonable to expect Omar Marmoush to be The Messiah to redeem City. He has not been an especially prolific scorer (apart from one very hot streak for Frankfurt earlier this season); in fact, until he moved to Frankfurt just under 18 months ago, he was almost entirely unacquainted with the goal. And, you know, the Bundesliga isn't exactly the same level of competition as the Premier League: even its top clubs would probably struggle against most of our leading teams; the majority of teams in that league would struggle in the Championship.

And, ahem, City now have one of the toughest runs of fixtures coming up that any side - certainly any top side - has to face in the second half of the season (along with two crunch games to try to avoid the ignominy of Champions League elimination at the group stage... and the dear old FA Cup). They might have a real struggle for points from now until some time in March: Chelsea, Arsenal, Newcastle, Liverpool, Spurs (terrible at the moment; but a bogey team for City in recent years), and Nottingham Forest is an horrendous sequencc. Brighton, Manchester United and Crystal Palace - and a fighting-for-their-lives Leicester - might not be a pushover after that either. The way City were playing up until a few weeks ago, it would not have been outrageous to suggest they might lose all of them. And I'm afraid I still think it's very likely they'll lose at least half of them.

So - NO, sorry; I am not at all convinced we've yet seen any clear sign of a City renaissance.

[And sure enough, the very next night they got absolutely torn apart by Paris St Germain. Despite rather fortuitously opening up a two-goal lead in the first half, they were outplayed for almost the whole game and ended up getting spanked 4-2.... and it might have been much worse.  City's problems are deep-seated and persistent. They might be capable of significant improvement.... but they're not about to get GOOD again any time soon.]

A week further on, they have scraped through into the knockout stage of the Champions League - but only by the skin of their teeth! Again, City can't take much comfort from a fairly dismal performance against Club Brugge: they were regularly cut open by the Belgian side on the counter-attack, conceded the first goal... and very nearly went behind again when Greek forward Christos Tzolis cracked a low 20-yard shot inches wide of the post - with Ederson rooted to the spot. If that one had gone in, I doubt if City could have found a way back into the game. 

And their ultimately fairly comfortable win over Chelsea at the weekend was a bit of a head-scratcher - really more down to Chelsea being surprisingly lacklustre rather than City being at all brilliant. They are still looking... well, not just a pale shadow of the team that dominated every competition in the the last few years, but a completely different team; a much, much worse team, a really rather shambolic team, who look like they could not just get beaten but properly spanked by just about any half-decent side. In his post-match interview on Sunday, Pep was again extremely downbeat; positively careworn and depressed-looking. And he came out with one of the most self-damning remarks I think I've ever heard from a Premier League manager, when he said, "Without the ball, we are one of the worst teams. We need the ball to survive."  No, even Pep doesn't think City are any good again yet. They're hanging on by their fingernails, only occasionally giving themselves a chance in games by trying even harder than usual never to give the ball away. But no team manages never to give the ball away; and, at the moment, every time City give the ball away, they look like they might concede a goal.

Haters gonna hate....

 

I have been shocked and disturbed by the extreme negativity so often being expressed online about this first Club World Cup competition. Most of the people dissing it so heavily are clearly driven by personal grudges and prejudices, and are often nakedly hypocritical too: they abuse the tournament, while also griping how unfair it is that their club isn't in it (if you're a Liverpool fan, you have the beginnings of a case on that; but it's not a reason to dismiss the worth of the tournament); or they suggest it's not worth watching or supporting - while they've clearly been watching it.

Many of them are also so stubbornly invested in this embittered view of the competition that they seek to disparage it further by questioning the quality of the football or the degree to which players and teams have really been motivated for it. I saw one comment from a guy this past week whose main argument seemed to be that Manchester City couldn't possibly have been beaten by Al Hilal if they'd been trying properly! I must assume he didn't watch that game (or many of the ones last season in which City were also chronically incapable of defending against swift counter-attacks): City tried their damnedest, and were just outplayed on the day; and both Pep and his players looked absolutely gutted to have been eliminated. The quality of football in this tournament has, in fact, been of an astonishingly high standard, and no club has been guilty of putting out a sub-par eleven or being unconcerned about a result (except in a few instances, perhaps, at the end of the group stage; but that always happens in competition like this).

So, these critics almost all appear to be driven by a knee-jerk emotional response rather than a rational analysis. And a great many of them also have a hidden - or not-so-hidden! - personal agenda fuelling their invective. Thus, they don't really merit much attention..

However, the detractors of the tournament do have two main lines of attack which I think are worth addressing.

Lack of 'prestige'?

The haters deride the tournament as valueless, they protest that it carries no 'prestige' - or only 'fake' or 'manufactured' prestige.

I would suggest that 'prestige' essentially means how highly the event is valued - by players, fans, and the club's ownership. And the key determinant of that is the standard of the competitors. Most people - players, certainly - are going to value a competition if they have to beat really top opponents to win it. And this competition - aside from the unfortunate but unavoidable omission of a few big names like Liverpool and Barca - does have all the best teams in the world in it.

'Official' status also counts for a lot. FIFA, although it may often be laughably corrupt and incompetent, is nevertheless the game's global governing body, and any event they endorse automatically carries considerable weight - far more than an event organised by one of the regional football associations, or a 'private' friendly competition set up by groups of clubs. And heck, the title of 'World Champion' is inherently prestigious - there's no getting away from that.

Moreover, in our sadly materialistic world, the sheer size of the prize pot is going to be a key determinant of the importance attached to a competition by a club's owners - and, at least to an extent, by the players and the fans too, because we're all dazzled by money, and we appreciate how important it is. And FIFA have produced an impressively huge prize fund for this tournament.

Now, yes, there's a further sentimental component to 'prestige' in sporting competitions, which grows from the associations we've all accumulated  around them - from their history. But no competition has 'history' when it starts; and that isn't a reason to never consider creating a new competition. Even the World Cup was a bit slow out of the blocks, with a lot of the European nations being uninterested in joining it, even when the second event was hosted in Italy in 1934; England and others didn't come on board until after World War II, The European Championship had an even rockier start, with some of the leading European footballing powers - England, Italy, West Germany, Netherlands - actively opposing its creation, and not participating in the first one or two iterations in the 1960s; and it didn't start becoming a major viewing draw until the 1980s. In its first iteration a new tournament is strange, unfamiliar, an unknown quanitity - it's inevitable that natural human scepticism (and resentment of change) is going to win out with a lot of people, and they're going to question the event's prestige, or even its reason for existing.

We had just the same distaste and dismay expressed towards the new Nations League competition in Europe just a few years ago. But now.... people are starting to get into it a little bit, now that they understand the format, and they're starting to build a stock of potent memories about times their team did well or badly in it. And the fact that the Great Egomaniac, Mr Cristiano Ronaldo, is so chuffed to have just won it is probably going to do wonders for how seriously people take the next one.

The same will be true of this Club World Cup - and probably on an even shorter timeline, because it's simply been such a bloody good tournament. People who've watched it with an open mind.... are already looking forward to the next one.  Supposed 'prestige' problem SOLVED.

Unacceptable toll on the players?

This objection I have a bit more time for. I am concerned about the increasing burdens we place on top football players - both physical and emotional - and alarmed about possible adverse consequences a little down the line. But for me, blaming summer tournaments (or international football more generally, or the governing bodies creating novel tournaments more specifically) is a dangerous distraction, it's missing the point. The core of the burden on players comes from the domestic schedule, and that's what needs to be lightened. 

We have been used to there being summer tournaments at least every other year for decades now; we ought to be well used to it. And it's unreasonable to insist that no new tournaments should be tried out ever. Without occasional innovation and experimentation, the sport will stagnate and die. 

People who take that tack in regard to this tournament are wilfully disregarding the very strong and worthwhile reasons for its creation. The original 'Club World Cup' format was tiny, it was buried in midwinter (at a time when most of the world is preoccuppied with preparations for Christmas), and given almost no promotion. For years, it failed to attract very much media attention in Europe; and in the UK, at least, we were barely ever aware that it was happening (even if our club was in it). But in the rest of the world - especially in South America - they went mad for it! The developing football nations were desperately craving an opportunity to test their best teams against the big boys of Europe (even if it rarely worked out very well for them). The demand was undoubtedly there (outside of selfish, insular Europe, anyway) for a proper international competition between the best clubs of all continents - something on a broader scale that could include multiple clubs from each continent, and provide a bigger spectacle that would grab the attention of global TV audiences. Events like this help to develop the game in the less well-off countries - hopefully to the point that, one day, we'll have a more level global playing-field in this sport, and the best African, Asian, and South American teams will be powerful enough to hang on to at least some of their best young players - rather than regularly having all of them poached by European sides. And I think an event like this is also good for 'cultural exchange' in the here-and-now, helping to educate football fans about the level of the game in other countries, and introducing us to some previously unknown talents. (It would be unfortunate, though, if it just became a big shopping showcase! I'm not sure that players like Arias, Mastantuono, and Jesus would have been getting moves to Europe without this competition....)

The root of the problem with player health is not the number of games, but the intensity of them in the modern-day style of play. One game can break a player! And of course, there's a huge variation in individual susceptibility: some players, like Declan Rice, are tanks who seem to be able to play a full 90 minutes again and again and again, with no tail-off in performance or incipient injury risk; others have hamstrings that ping more often than their phones. But sports science has made huge advances in recent years: clubs are now getting very good at monitoring fatigue levels and muscle soreness or stiffness for the earliest signs of danger. It's really the club's responsibility to manage their player's well-being, and ensure that they aren't over-played when they're looking vulnerable. 

The much deeper squads and routine rotation we've grown used to now are a big help with this, as is the increased number of substitutions allowed in each match. Permitting one or two further substitutions might help a little bit more. And the League does seem to be doing its best with scheduling - contriving a short winter 'break', and trying to ensure minimum 'recovery periods' are provided between all fixtures. However, the inevitable mid-winter log-jam still looms ominously over the season. Many countries suspend their domestic leagues altogether for a couple of weeks or so around the turn of the year; we really need to be looking at doing that in England too. Traditionalists, of course, (and especially those who support clubs who would suddenly be at a greatly heightened risk of relegation) are vehemently opposed to reducing the number of clubs in the Premier League. But, with the vastly increased pace of the modern game, I'm afraid it's now unavoidable: we need to get it down to 18 teams as soon as possible - and perhaps ultimately to only 15 or 16. It's not the end of the world, we'll get used to it! After all, it's only 20 years since the League was reduced from 22 teams to 20, and nobody grumbles about that any more; in fact, I think most people had got over it inside a couple of years.

And if we're talking about unnecessary additions to the minutes-burden, surely the League Cup has to go before anything else?! I know fans of clubs like Newcastle and Spurs will briefly get very passionate about it, as it's the only piece of silverware they've managed to claim in the modern era. But that's all it is: a lame 'consolation prize' for teams that aren't quite good enough to win anything worthwhile. It is - and always has been - a complete non-event. And if it were cancelled tomorrow, nobody would miss it in a year's time. [The one small counter-argument I can see in favour of retaining it is that it has become useful as an opportunity for giving squad players and emerging youth talents a few full run-outs.... in a competition that doesn't matter.]

I fear many of the gripes we're hearing from the online community about the possible harm to players from playing another summer tournament are driven by the purely selfish concern that it may impact their team - especially at the start of the season. Pep himself has already jumped on that bandwagon, whining about the possible detriments to City in the domestic league from their participation in America. (He's just getting his excuses in early, as the tournament exposed the fact that his Manchester City might be quite poor again next season, the 'no defence' problem still not fixed!) It's notable, I think, that there were no such complaints before they got knocked out; and you'll probably never hear Chelsea fans bitching about the tournament, because they're so surprised and delighted to have reached the Final!

Fantasy managers tend to be even worse in their narrowness of focus, resenting not just the possibility of a player going missing with an injury, but the likelhood of increased rotations, uncertain starts, and reduced minutes - anything that might eat into their precious points tally. But that's such a problem with Pep's City anyway, you never want to risk taking more than one or two of their players! It's really a very small, potential impact on two EPL teams; it shouldn't be that big of a deal. But people are treating it as the most massive and unconscionable source of grievance. It is not: get over it.

This first Club World Cup has gone far better than anyone can really have expected. It has been a huge success, producing a very high level of competition, a few surprises and upsets, some extremely entertaining football (the main media partner, DAZN, is missing a trick by not having put together a 'Goal of the Tournament' reel yet, because there have been some absolute bangers!!) - and it's produced a fascinating Final for us to enjoy tomorrow.

Quit bitching - it's here to stay.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 6

This weekend got off to an odd start with West Ham annoucing the sacking of Graham Potter just before their next game. I fancy their prospects should be much better - eventually - under Nuno Espirito Sangto. But Monday night's visit to Everton will be very rough baptism for him.

Brentford absolutely dominated a lacklustre Manchester United in the lunchtime kick-off, and should have won much more comfortably - a very sharp display from United keeper Bayindir kept the visitors in the game, enabling Sesko to give them hope by pulling them back to 2-1 down with his debut goal in a scramble in the six-yard box (Brentford will feel that Kelleher was impeded by Mbeumo in initially jumping for the cross, but the goalkeeper was just too weak). United had nearly got back on terms when Mbeumo raced in behind and was apparently tugged off balance by Collins as he was in the act of shooting. (Once more, this was an instance where the VAR playback was not very helpful: one assumes there must have been a pull on the forward's arm, because he surely wouldn't have chosen to fall over looking for a foul in that moment when he was about to score; but you couldn't actually see the contact. We need much better resolution in these pictures, allowing for a tight zoom-in on some incidents. And we need a greater variety of camera-angles to be reviewed; this one only showed a distant view from the far side of the pitch, where Collins's hand was obscured by Mbeumo's arm.) This led to an agonising delay of fully 4 minutes, while VAR apparently pondered the issue of whether the incident was 'a denial of a goalscoring opportunity' that should have brought a red card for Collins, and ultimately decided that they couldn't decide - although it was absolutely clearcut that it was. Perhaps unsettled by the long wait, Bruno Fernandes then struck the kick weakly to the keeper's left, allowing an easy save. (I sympathise with Ruben Amorim's anxiety about moments like this; but it is really not a good look for a manager to be unable to watch his team take a penalty! Indeed, at the moment, Amorim frequently seems to be unable to bear to watch his team, and finds every excuse to look anywhere else instead but at the pitch.) Jensen's emphatic finish from a lightning-quick break put the result beyond doubt shortly afterwards.

Chelsea dominated comfortably in the first-half, without creating any clearcut chances apart from Enzo's close-range opener. The match changed early in the second-half when Chalobah got himself sent for a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' challenge on Diego Gomez just outside the box. The contact was slight and probably accidental, but absolutely clear; and Gomez was through behind, ahead of everyone else, and shapping to shoot from just inside the box; the mystery here is that hapless Simon Hooper needed VAR to point out what the decision should be. But VAR wasn't any better, taking a long look in the second half at Gusto kicking Minteh in the side of the head - and eventually deciding there was nothing wrong with it. I was assuming they were again weighing whether it should be a red-card offence (I would have said not, as it seemed clearly accidental) - but it was an absolutely clearcut penalty, and that somehow wasn't given. So, Brighton's 2 goals in added-on time to claim the win seemed entirely just.

Palace continued their record as Liverpool's bogey team of the moment with an absolute biff-bang game at Selhurst Park. Liverpool were at sixes-and-sevens in the first-half, and might well have been trailing by a cricket score at the break. Slot may gripe that the opening goal, a messy goalmouth scramble hooked in by Sarr, came from a corner that should have been awarded the other way; but it was impossible to see if the ball had ricocheted off Mitchell or Bradley last before going out of play; and it surely made no difference ultimately - the home side were well worth their half-time lead, and with some sharper finishing, and a less determined Alisson to repeatedly thwart their best efforts, they might have registered 5 or 6 or 7 goals in the opening 45 minuttes. Mateta's exquisite curler that beat Alisson but crashed back off the inside of the right-hand post was a particularly lucky escape for the league leaders. Palace, however, rested on their laurels a bit too much in the second-half, and mounting Liverpool pressure in the last quarter of the match made one begin to fear that they miight yet pull off another of their 'great escapte' late goals; and so it proved, with substitute Chiesa snatching a lifeline for the visitors with only a few minutes of regular time remaining. There was yet another long delay for fruitless VAR deliberations over this goal, with the high cross from the right having apparently brushed Salah's hand, high above his head as he tried to jump, as it crossed the six-yard box. It looked very much as though it had just lightly hit his fingers, and that had maybe diverted the course of the ball just enough to cause to Richards to misjudge his his attempt to clear with a stooping header - with the result that he headed weakly straight to an opponent 15 yards out to set up the scoring chance. However, the TV pictures just weren't clear enough to give any definitive view (which was obvious on the first playback, but the VAR team insisted on peering at replays multiple times). I've said before that I think it would take some pressure off VAR, and speed things up a lot, if we just acknowledged that sometimes the video playback is inconclusive, and allow a new category 'no determination possible' to reflect that. The only piece of evidence in favour of the eventual decision not to penalise Salah was that none of the Palace players seemed to appeal for it (and indeed, most of the players seemed particularly baffled as to what the VAR hold-up was for); on the other hand, Salah did look guiltily relieved when the verdict went his way! Anyhow, to the neutral if felt as though justice was served when Palace roared back defiantly against the visitors in add-on time and eventually snatched a winner in the through substitute Eddie Nketiah in the final minute. 

Leeds had a very lively start at home against Bournemouth and were all over them in the early phase of the game - but couldn't make it count, largely thanks to some agile work from Dorde Petrovic in goal: he ended with 6 saves credited to him, and his low reaction stop from Calvert-Lewin was probably the save of the weekend, if not the month. Antoine Semenyo somehow keeps his scoring streak going - much longer than I would have expected (wasn't expecting him to be on penalties, but he is; wasn't expecting him to be taking free-kicks, but he is....); he didn't do much in this game, but managed to drill a free-kick under the wall to put Bournemouth in front, against the run of play. Leeds then showed great character to fight back, first equalising with a Rodon header from a corner (Petrovic, alas, rather at fault on this one: perhaps slightly bamboozled by the effort brushing Semenyo's hair on its way through to him, he parried thin air, when the effort should have been quite easy to stop) and a neat half-volley from the edge of the area by Longstaff. Alas, they couldn't quite 'stick the landing' as Bournemouth raised their effort and found an equaliser from substitute Kroupi eventually - yet another deciding goal coming deep in added-on time (so many of those this season; of course, it helps that we're see so much added-on time!).

For that deciding goal there was another inordinate VAR delay to adjudge whether Nketiah had been offside. It was extremely close; but the new 'semi-automated' system is supposed to be able to render decisions almost immediately - "within seconds", according to the Premier League - and this took 2 full minutes!! What gives?? Even Sarr's opening goal, where there seemed to be nothing to 'decide', took over a minute to clear. I really feel we ought to be pushing hard for a time-limit on VAR decisions: if they can't do what they need to do in 30 seconds, they should admit that technical shortcomings in the process render them unable to intervene effectively, and whatever the onfield decision was will stand. Furthermore, there was an unfortunate hold-up of several minutes due to a medical emergency in the crowd. The time added-on at the end of the first-half was advertised as 10 minutes, mostly because of this; but referee Chris Kavanagh somehow played just over 15 extra minutes! Yep, they should have been coming out to start the second-half before the first had actually finished. Again, what gives?

Burnley, despite having Esteve fire into his own net in the opening minutes, and then getting overrun for the opening portion of the first-half, hung in gamely and eventually settled themselves. After Anthony's equaliser, they started to look much more dangerous, and were unlucky not to take the lead early in the second-half, when Lyle Foster's shot from the edge of the box was deflected just wide. Conceding 2 goals in quick succession just after the hour-mark, including a second own-goal from the unfortunate Esteve, was really undeserved on the balance of play to that point - though they were perhaps to blame for going after the game, rather than just sitting in a permanent low-block, as they had done so effectively against Liverpool a few weeks back. However, Kyle Walker was very fortunate to avoid conceding a penalty with a clumsy challenge on Jeremy Doku a little later, twice lunging at the ball and missing, and definitely nudging the attacker's calves in the process; VAR eventually deemed that there was 'nothing decisive' in the replay - which looks like it might be a new surreptitious attempt to speed games up by minmizing the number of pitchside reviews ordered; in the past, whenever there's clearly been a contact, the ref has been asked to take a second look, but now VAR seems to be empowered to make a negative decision and shrug "not that much in it" themselves. People who'd gambled their Triple Captain on Erling Haaland could be grateful that he at least started (which hadn't been entirely certain, given that he'd missed some training sessions during the week with a back problem), and that he wasn't withdrawn early (which Pep almost invariably does, even when there are no fitness concerns), and that he contributed a rare 'assist' (winning the header in the six-yard box that led to Nunes's opener); this already was more than they might reasonably have hoped for, and a prettty good return for the chip. But then as the game moved into added-on time, a tiring Burnley defence made a couple of blunders which gifted the big Viking - who'd really been completely anonymous in the game up to that point - a brace of late, late goals: a very, very, very lucky outcome for the chip. The final scoreline wasn't at all a fair reflection of  Burnley's performance: they had in fact given another one of the top sides a big scare.

Spurs fans wanted a penalty when Palhinha collapsed in the box midway through the first-half, but he'd plainly just run into the defender's raised leg from behind - and the contact was just ouside the box anyway: no controversy there. Kudus's free-header was parried on to the bar by Johnstone in the Wolves goal, and just before half-time Matt Doherty saw his crisp sidefoot half-volley smash against the angle of post and bar. After Santiago Bueno grabbed the lead with a poke-in from a Vicario error (he parried weakly against his own player, rather than catching a fairly tame shot), Wolves's confidence surged and they had the home side on the rack for a little while; then they soaked up pressure well for the final phase of the game - until being caught out by Palhinha's deft curler from the edge of the box, deep into added-on time, sparing the home side's blushes by salvaging a point they scarcely deserved. In truth, neither side looked very incisive up-front here; but Wolves are starting to look a much more robust team, and unlikely to remain in the bottom three too much longer.

Sunderland's goal against Forest provided yet another unsatisfactory VAR experience. Goalscorer Alderete must have been very close to offside (looked off, to the naked eye), but was deemed 'on' after a very long delay - with again no justificatory graphic being shown on TV to support this verdict. Poor defending by Forest; they didn't deserve a break on this - but it did look a very dubious call. Postecoglou claims the award of 'Most FPL-Unfriendly Manager' of the week for pulling Dominguez at half-time, and McAtee and Ndoye just shy of 60 minutes. Forest look completely toothless without their talisman Gibbs-White, who was rested for the first hour here. But even with him, they didn't create that much of a threat - although Roefs again notched 6 saves in he visitors' goal, some of them quite smart. I can't help thinking that Ange might soon join the ranks of managers with shortening odds on losing their jobs by Christmas.

Yet more painfully protracted VAR delays on Sunday, with one of the most excruciating being Arsenal's early penalty appeal against Nick Pope. It was abundantly clear from the angle the ball moved away from Pope and Gyokeres that the keeper had got a decisive touch on the ball - so, no foul. It was also reasonably clear from the three main TV views shown; though much more so from the close-up, unobstructed view from behind the goal - where it was not only crystal clear that Pope had cleanly got a toe on the ball, but had also done all he could to then twist his leg out of the way of the onrushing forward, and Gyokeres had merely done an elaborate spin-dive over where he thought Pope's leg was going to be. Here, VAR scratched its chin in doubt for getting on for two minutes before suggesting a trip to the monitor for referee Jarred Gillett - and he then took a similarly long time to watch all three replay views (two of which were fairly useless, perhaps actively unhelpfu), mutlitple times each. It was in fact a very straightforward, perfectly clearcut decision; and one I would have been qute happy to have VAR resolve on its own, to save us at least some of this needless 4 or 5-minute interruption. Also, if it had been a foul, surely it was also 'a denial of a goalscoring opportunity' and Pope should have been shown a red card for it. But if it wasn't, and in fact there wasn't even any - or at least not any substantial - contact to warrant Gyokeres's spectacular fall, then surely he should have been shown a yellow card for 'simulation'. Neither option appeared to be considered by the officials; it seems their little brains were so maxed out with the pressure of having to decide an early penalty call in favour of the leading title-chasers that they just couldn't keep track of any subsidiary issues. This is yet another problem with VAR; it just makes the referees' jobs even harder. (Arteta, of course, strutted and pouted on the touchline long afterwards, apparently protesting that his side had been somehow robbed of a clear penalty. This constant posturing of his, the vociferous disputing of even the most incontestable decisions against his side, is becoming very, very tiresome.)

There were more gripes and moans when Newcastle went in front from a Woltemade header. The claim this time was for a 'push' on Gabriel, but it looked as if the forward merely placed his hand on the small of the defender's back for a moment - no force, no pressure in it: Gabriel fell to his knees hoping for the foul to be given, when he should have stayed on his feet to do his job of heading the ball away. Arteta will again scream 'Injustice!', but it was an utterly fatuous claim. Newcastle had more reason to feel aggriieved when Gabriel shoved his arm in the German's face straight afterwards; the referee didn't see it, and VAR - evidently under instructions to remain 'low-key' this season - didn't want to say anything to him about it; but that really ought to have been a red card - for the ultimate match-winner, and top FPL points recipient. Newcastle also had a vigorous penalty shout of their own late in the game, when the ball struck Gabriel'sarm - but it had been driven at him hard from very close range by Elanga, so  I have no problem with finding no culpability there (though under the current absurdly complicated guideliness, it might not be perfectly clear that this was the appropriate decision: TV pundits made much of the fact the ball had supposedly deflected off Gabriel's calf - but the TV pictures did not show that). Arsenal had looked more like the home side for most of the game, constantly on the front foot against a rather lacklustre Newcastle. Only a superb performance from Nick Pope was keeping the Geordies in the contest: he was officially credited with 5 saves (though I'd thought it was more like 7 or 8 at least; as with so many of the stats-based points awards, there is often scope for doubt about whether they've been calculated fairly; and it's a pity too that here is no qualitative element in the points system, because of a few of these stops were really world-class - unbelievable, game-changing efforts). Arsenal kept up the pressure admirably, and it was perhaps inevitable that, despite Pope's defiant brilliance, they'd find goals eventually from headers at set-pieces; Gabriel's winner came in the final seconds of added-on time.

At Villa, Josh King was very unlucky not to get a penalty when tripped by Emi Martinez, and very, very unlucky to get booked for diving. He might have been 'looking for it', but there definitely was substantial contact, and Martinez's leg was not merely static but sweeping forwards through the oncoming forward. A very 50-50 call perhaps; but these days, we see them more often given than not. And Fulham were already a goal up at that point, so it probably would have put the game out of Villa's reach. They had anoher good shout for a penalty a little later when King drove the ball against Cash's arm outstretched behind him. (Again, I'd be tempted to excuse Cash on the grounds of the power of the shot; but it did look to me as if he knew the shot was behind him and was deliberately stretching his arm further behind him in hopes of blocking it - and I would favour a 'strict liability' approach anyway in instances like this where the 'handball' blocks a goalbound shot.) Watkins's equaliser was an exquisite volley-lob finish - but he had looked well offside when he broke forward - and yet again, the VAR dissection of this was not publicly shared. But that goal - and perhaps the second-half introduction of the quietly influential Buendia - turned the game around: Fulham looked like they should have had it comfortably won inside the first half-hour, but after the break Villa steadily took control. I wouldn't get too excited about a 'revival' just yet, as they do have a very tough little run of fixtures coming up; but this second-half was certainly way, way better than we've yet seen from them this season.

There didn't seem to be any refereeing controversies in the gameweek's final encounter at Everton on Monday evening. The only big surprise of this game was that the home side weren't able to tturn their massive dominance, especially in the first-half (a curious measure of this is that apparently half the West Ham side - including all of their attacking players! - registered more 'defensive contributions' than the hitherto prolific James Tarkowski!!); a lack of cutting-edge denied them the comfortable win that seemed to be there for the taking. The major FPL quirk was that, under the new much more liberal interpretation of 'assists', Diouf was given an extra 3 points for starting the move that led to Bowen's against-the-run-of-play equaliser. While I welcome a move away from purporting to determine who the 'orginally intended recipient' of a pass was as a means of determining whether any intervening deflection by a defender was decisive in redirecting the ball,.... well, here, we were clearly in a subsequent phase of play: Diouf had merely hoiked a hopeful early cross into the middle of the box when there was no-one there, but Michael Keane's rushed attempt at a back-headed clearance had fallen into space at the edge of the area, and Bowen was first to recover it and get off his shot... fully 5 seconds later - there is NO WAY that was an 'assist': it was not a 'deflected cross', it was clearly a separate phase of play. There's also something odd going on with Dewsbury-Hall, who, although not being a conspicuously aggressive player, picked up his 5th yellow card in 6 games and is already suspended....

It's been a pretty dreadful weekend for VAR: red cards for Nathan Collins and (arguably) Gabriel clearly missed. an obvious penaltiy not awarded to Brighton (and also, though arguably, to Manchester City), and one (or two!!) not given to Fulham; yet again some very tight offsides being decided probably correctly, but not very convincingly, and with far too long a delay. And there was an egregious FPL points aberration in awarding an 'assist' to El Hadji Diouf last night. We've also seen an above-average degree of luck in the play itself, with an unusually large number of errors by defenders and keepers, and some very near-misses, including a lot of efforts smacking against the woodwork, and some stupendous saves - including an other-worldly performance from Nick Pope. Quite a few 'unexpected' results too: Wolves were not widely predicted to earn a draw with Spurs, nor Leeds with Bournemouth, nor West Ham at Everton, and Sunderland weren't really fancied to get a win away from home at Forest, nor Brighton at Chelsea, nor recently dreadful Villa against Fulham; and while Palace's chances against Liverpool were much stronger, not many people were betiting on them to win so emphatically. And then there's this slew of of late, late goals!!! The 'Team of the Week' is yet agaiin almost completely devoid of any of the highest-owned players (only Doku and Haaland gaining inclusion after Saturday's games; only the very fortunate-to-be-still-on-the-pitch Gabriel subsequently joining them). We usually hope to have at least 4, 5, 6 'haulers' every week; but this time most people had to make do with only 1 or 2! And if you were without Haaland, you were completely screwed... (His improbably massive return against Burnley - after be'd been nursing an injury during the week - was a major slice of LUCK in itself!!)  This week's therefore looking like a strong  7 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Luck-o-Meter (32)

Well, amazingly, no major new injuries appear to have resulted from this week's batch of BIG European games. But we still had quite a few problems hanging over our heads from last week... And with HUGE European second-legs loomng for five teams, the risk of rest rotations is a big hazard for this week.

This week also sees the long overdue introduction of the Semi-Automated Offside Technology, replacing the laborious, inaccurate, unconvincing manual placing of thick coloured lines on the freezeframe view with detailed computer graphic renderings of the players' relative positions. It's not going to be infallible (though the main problem with 'fairness' lies in  the framing of the Law itself; we shouldn't be seeking to make offside determinations to a fraction of an inch - if part of the torso is 'level', overlapping with a defender's, the position of an attacker's toe or a nose shouldn't matter), and it's going to take some time to convince us that it's even moderately accurate and reliable, but.... it's got to be an improvement, surely. [ESPN has quite a good overview of how the new system is supposed to work and why it's been introduced.]

Well, what an absurd bish-bosh of a game we had to start the weekend off - one of the best games of the entire season: not perhaps the greatest football, but the most entertaining end-to-end contest. There were so many potential 'turning points' one might argue the significance of in this (the xG numbers were ridiculous!): Henderson making a great early save from Marmoush, DeBruyne crashing a shot against the post shortly afterwards, KDB then squeezing a free-kick in off the inside of the post to launch the improbable comeback, McAtee spurning three excellent chances before finally converting one,... and, of course, the amphetamines with which Pep obviously spiked the half-time lemon juice. For me, the slightly harsh early booking of Kamada could have been a more subtly decisive moment, subsequently robbing Palace of some of their bite in midfield. (And the withdrawal of Mateta for Hughes by Glasner at half-time was a bit of a head-scratcher - was it 'tactical'? What was the idea??) But really the game swung on the new offside decision-making system: Eze's apparent second - which would have put Palace 3-0 up, and even a superlative DeBruyne and Marmoush would have struggled to inspire a comeback from that - looked onside, but he was adjudged to have been offside by the length of his boot (possibly the 'correct' decision, but it will be hard to earn fans' confidence in calls like this; and it obviously doesn't feel fair to chalk off a good goal for such a trivial infraction), whereas young Nico O'Reilly looked well offside in providing the pre-assist for the crucial third City goal early in the second half, but was apparently 'on'.... by the width of a ruckle on the shoulder of a defender's shirt - WTF? And although the decisions themselves are being produced fairly quickly, there may still be issues about the speed with which the justifying images can be rendered - or shared with the public: the graphic of the Eze offside didn't show up on TV until nearly a quarter of an hour later!  Sharing the images promptly is going to be a key part of winning public confidence in this new system.

S9, a wonderful spectacle at The Etihad, and a fine swansong performance by one of the all-time Premier League greats, but.... boy, oh boy, City dodged a bullet in this one; in at least half of the possible universes, they must have gone down to Palace's blistering start. (A uniquely FPL concern in this match was Eze taking a painful whack to the leg early in the second half, and looking like he might have to be pulled just shy of the hour. He was visibly slowed down by the challenge, and was withdrawn less than 20 minutes later - so, I worry he might now be a doubt for the Wednesday game against Newcastle.)

Leicester managed to score a goal for the first time in three months! Then they did it again. And they nearly nicked a win in the dying minutes when El-Khannouss cracked one against the far post. The visitors might also feel aggrieved that they didn't get a  first-half penalty when McAteer was barged to the ground by Estupinan in the corner of the box: one of those incidents that might be arguable, but at least deserved a good long ponder from VAR - and didn't seem to get it. There wasn't any doubt about either of the Brighton penalties at least; the mystery there was why VAR needed to intervene when they were both so obvious they really should have been spotted by the on-pitch referee straight away. But damn, Ruud van Nistelrooy very nearly pulled off a table-bonus win - which would have brought much joy to the 427 FPL managers brave or foolish enough to have chosen him for their 'Assistant Manager' this week.

Doucoure's late, late winner for Everton at Forest was just about deserved, in what had been an entertaining stalemate. With a few of their best players absent or compromised - Aina still in the treatment room, Elanga unable to start, Wood only just back from the troublesome hip injury, looking rather ponderous - Forest were inevitably a bit flat, but looked much more dangerous in the second half. I'm pleased I predicted the likelihood of an 'upset' here - Moyes keeps pulling off these results! Both Wood and Beto got tumbled to the ground inside the box; both might have been fairly light or 'accidental' collisions, but they were both the sort of penalty appeals that are often given - and they seemed substantial enough to merit far more than the apparently very cursory VAR attention they were given. And Jarrad Branthwaite was very, very lucky to escape a red card (actually, any card at all??) for blatantly shoulder-charging Jota Silva in the side of the head. It was an obviously deliberate piece of thuggery, and the kind of challenge which could cause a very serious injury (probably did cause a concussion - which is another issue; why wasn't Silva taken off the field for checks?). What was VAR doing here?

Villa were pretty lacklustre against Southampton, as they invariably have been after their big European games this year - only really starting to look much of a threat in the final half hour or so. Even then, they needed a bit of luck - with Watkins's smart volleyed chip for the breakthrough only just scudding in off the underside of the bar, and two very soft penalty awards breaking the home side's morale, even if they weren't converted (both incidents were blocks rather than challenges, where the Villa player clearly initiated contact with a defender's outstretched leg [actually, for the second one, Stephens played the ball!]: I wouldn't have given either of them; and what on earth was going on with Asensio taking the second, and hitting it in exactly the same place as the first, allowing Ramsdale to make exactly the same save??); and Emi Martinez had to make two very sharp saves, one early from Archer, one late from Fernandes, to spare Villa some potential embarrassment. FPL managers who rushed to bring in more Villa players ahead of their upcoming double gameweek are probably mostly a bit disappointed with their returns here... and they might be even more disappionted after next week.

Arsenal dropped points again against Brentford (again, not exactly unexpected). What was unexpected, in a fairly dour encounter, was that Rice would combine with Partey for a high-speed breakaway goal (far more of a Mbeumo-and-Wissa thing)! Or that Saka, on for the last 25 minutes, would fail to convert when presented with the ball on the edge of the box by one of the worst goalkeeping errors of the season (Flekken decides to step out of his box to deal with a long clearance from Raya which is obviously going to come all the way through to him to gather safetly in his hands... and then elects to try to control the ball rather than hoof it to safety - WTF???). The BBC pundits were outraged that Norgaard got away with a rash scissor-tackle on Martinelli - but he trapped the Arsenal man's legs between his own rather than making any heavy contact with them: only a yellow card, for me.

The most bizarre thing about the Chelsea game (well, apart from the hosts being carved open on the counter-attack by Ipswich twice in the first twenty-odd minutes!!) was the linesman flagging an offside against Ipswich's second goal, when no-one had been anywhere near offside (presumably he'd been looking at the wrong Chelsea defender, failing to notice that the one on the far side had been a yard or so deeper?); and then, even more bizarrely, it took VAR an agonisingly long time - 2 or 3 minutes - to correct this very obvious error. It would seem there are still some teething problems with the new SAO system, or with how it's being used. So, that was an assist and a goal for right-back Ben Johnson - how many people own him??  (1.7%!! I'm surprised it's that many.)  Chelsea were oddly toothless, apart from a lively start (the momentum was with them for 15 or 20 minutes, after Jackson smashed a shot against the near-post in the opening minute) and a spell of pressure chasing the win at the end (when Cole Palmer had his obligatory near-miss - fingertipped to safety by Alex Palmer - and Enzo Fernandes saw a fierce drive clawed away one-handed by the excellent Ipswich keeper in the closing minutes); it took two goals-out-of-nothing - a fast break down the wing from Madueke to set up Cucurella in the opening seconds after the restart (which somehow got credited as an own-goal??), and a brilliant solo effort from Sancho - to salvage a draw (and George Hirst had come within inches of putting the visitors 3-1 ahead). There is something still very not right about Chelsea.

West Ham produced a much better performance than they have for weeks, and provided Liverpool with quite a stern test - but the champions-elect still ultimately breezed through fairly comfortably. If things had just broken a bit more kindly for them, they could easily have won by a landslide: Luis Diaz might have had a hattrick, Macallister might have had 4 or 5, and Salah curled an early effort inches wide - which would probably won 'Goal of the Season' had it gone in. And VAR somehow decided to let James Ward-Prowse off for a particularly blatant handball in the penalty area (yes, the ball was coming to him very fast, but his arm was fully extended... and moving towards the ball, with apparent intent...).  As it was, they needed several outstanding saves from Alisson to protect a slender lead, and a late header from Van Dijk to clinch it (to atone for his dreadful own-goal a little earlier; a major piece of 'luck' in itself - he doesn't score very many goals, but here he managed to get one for both sides within the space of 3 minutes??!!). And even then, Fullkrug still gave the home fans palpitations when he looped a header against the crossbar in the dying seconds.

Oh dear, oh dear - Ange Postecoglou has been using his long injury-list as his excuse all season; but a lot of his key men are back now,.... and Spurs are playing worse than ever. Nicking consolatory goals through Tels and Richarlison - to almost get back in the game - really flattered them excessively; in truth, they were absolutely bulldozered at Molyneux, and provided one of the most shambolic defensive performances we've seen from any team all season. Things might have been even worse if the in-form Strand Larsen hadn't contrived to screw an effort a quarter-of-an-inch wide of an open goal.... but we can let him off for that one, as he was lying on his back at the time! If Spurs can't pull off a win against Frankfurt on Thursday to progress to the Europa League semi-finals, I imagine Ange will be leaving the club next weekend. Losing so comprehensively, to a club below you in the table, who were until recently deep in the relegation mire - that, I think, is a humiliation too far for the long-suffering Spurs fans. [Interestingly, I can't seem to find any current odds on Ange getting the sack - which may suggest that it's become such an overwhelmingly popular punt that the bookies aren't accepting the bet any more?! The Sun was apparently quoting him as being only 15/8 a week ago; strange, since he's been odds-on for three or four months now! If I could find odds like that anywhere, I'd definitely risk a fair wedge of money on it! The only thing that's saved Ange this long is the Spurs' fanbase's passionate dislike of their Chairman, Daniel Levy, who most of them want to blame for the team's dismal performances - rather than the flailing manager.]

Was Ruben Amorim being brutal or compassionate in dropping Andre Onana this week? The United keeper had been coming in for a fair bit of stick in recent weeks already, but might well be having a bit of an emotional implosion after the flak he received for his two costly fumbles in the Europa League game this week, His sudden omission is a blow to the nearly 5.5% of FPL managers that still own him (and he's actually not a terrible choice: he's still the 5th highest-returning keeper for the season; joint 4th for clean sheets, joint 7th for number of 'saves' points - and he picked up a massive 11 FPL points in last week's derby game!!). His deputy Altay Bayindir looked pretty sharp in protecting the goal, but often got rattled by Newcastle's relentless high pressing - and ended up giving the ball away to gift Guimaraes a fourth goal; that leaves quite the selection conundrum for next week! Manchester had started quite brightly, though, with Zirkzee contriving an early chance from a delightful quick interchange on the edge of the box with Bruno Fernandes that would have been a 'Goal of the Season' contender - but for a superb save from Nick Pope. Anthony Gordon was well enough to come on for the last 12 minutes; so the 8% who own him will be desperately hoping he can now start against Palace on Wednesday.

There don't seem to have been any wildly dubious refereeing calls in the Monday night game at Bournemouth, although there was some argument about whether Senesi should have received a straight red card for a high challenge on Andersen. The home side appeared completely dominant, despite only winning by Semenyo's solitary  goal in the opening minute (which must have come as a mighty relief to the 7.5% of managers who still - unfathomably - own him, despite his having only produced 2 assists and ZERO goals in the last 10 matches); Evanilson crashed a close-range shot against the underside of the crossbar, and Leno had to make two very sharp saves. Curiously, Kepa at the other end was credited with 7 saves, which - in a relatively 'uneventful' game - was enough to secure him maximum bonus points as well (he's only owned by 2..9%; surprisingly low, given his excellent recent form and fairly easy closing run of fixtures; but I'd bet almost all of his owners left him on the bench this week - ouch!); however, only ONE of those saves made it into the club's highlights reel for the game - and that was a relatively rroutine stop, from a long-range curler from Iwobi. Meanwhile, the outstanding Alex Scott got no love from the BPS at all...

Palace completely forgot to turn up for their second fixture of the week at Newcastle, surely their worst performance of the season. The scoreline wasn't at all flattering to Newcastle, as it was really one-way traffic, and they might have scored twice as many - although Isak kept failing to convert chances, Henderson pull off one superb one-handed save early on, and the home side needed a fair slice of luck to get things rolling: Murphy's opener was clearly a mishit cross rather than a shot, and Barnes's second needed a huge deflection off the unfortunate Guehi to slip past the keeper. The only moment of mild controversy came from the penalty decision - which was a tough call to make since VAR appeared to have only one view of the incident.... in which the contact with Richards was obscured by another Newcastle defender in front of him jumping for the ball. Given that the Palace man was laid out by the impact, I think the penalty award was probably fair enough - although we usually see keepers able to get away with clattering people in order to get to the ball... even if they don't actually get to the ball; and here, Pope did. So, a bit of an odd one: if it wasn't deliberate, it shouldn't have been a penalty; but if it was, he surely should have been sent off for it. As it turned out, the penalty award didn't matter, since Eze claimed the prize for The Worst Penalty Kick of the Season; really, one questions if Pope should even be credited with a 'save' for this, since Eze essentually just passed the ball to him. A cruel blow for Eze's FPL owners; and a huge piece of unearned good fortune for Pope's!!

A particularly topsy-turvy week then: a week of some great individual performances.... and some really poor team ones! A LOT of goals (41!), but most of them from fairly unexpected sources... After the weekend games, the 'Team of the Week' was one of the most eccentric collections we've seen all season, containing no-one that anyone would own - apart from Van Dijk and Air-Nouri, and maybe Joao Pedro; that didn't change much with the final two games,... except that suddenly 5 Newcastle players muscled their way into the lineup! 3 'penalty saves' is a very rare eventuality as well (though really all of them were down to utterly appalling spot-kicks rather than any great heroics from the keepers). VAR missed 3 fairly obvious penalties, yet 2 were awarded wrongly to Villa; while Senesi, Norgaard, and perhaps Pope were lucky to escape sendings-off, and Branthwaite definitely should have been dismissed; and a few unreasonably tight offside calls again...

This one's a 7 out of 10 kind of week on the 'Luck-o-Meter', with a few key decisions that were certainly highly questionable, if not wrong, and some ding-dong games, unexpected results. Not the worst refereeing week we've seen; but very far from the best, either.

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  Most people will have played the dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip by now; but if you haven't.... it's not too late to refuse to do so! I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season when it was introduced in GW23. [I worry that, if people don't protest vociferously about it, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you didn't feel able to join me in such an emphatic gesture, I hope you at least thought about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip (and still might refuse, if you've kept it till the last few gameweeks of the season).

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip