Return of THE CULT??

 

Early in the season, I bemoaned how the FPL 'Sheep' had been ridiculously over-enthusiastic about Aston Villa and their players, with picks like Konsa, Martinez, and Duran, in particular, being owned in numbers that were completely counter-rational. (Morgan Rogers you could at least make some sort of case for; but - strong admirer though I am of his talent - I've always felt that his attacking contributions in the Premier League have been too intermittent to justify his FPL selection...)  I described this phenomenon humorously as a 'Cult'!! 

And sure enough, Villa this season have been a pale shadow of the over-performers we marvelled at last year. 

Well, they weren't able to bring in any new talent over the summer, to strengthen their squad depth ahead of their first Champions League campaign (it didn't even exist the last time they qualifed for the senior Eutopean competition in their early '80s glory days; it was still the European Cup) - apart from Ian Maatsen (who's barely earned a game for them) and Rogers (who can't really carry the side on his own, although he tries); while they lost one of their most influential players, midfield stalwart and penalty-taker Douglas Luiz, to Juventus. And in this latest window, they've let go two of their most talented players, Emi Buendia (who'd barely been given a start since returning from a long injury) and Jhon Duran. Also, almost all of their defenders seem to be perpetually injured. And even World Cup-winning goalkeeper Emi Martinez has recently started occasionally looking a bit wonky....  

Teams almost invariably flounder a bit with their first season in European commpetition, failing to adapt to the disruption of usual preparation routines caused by regular midweek football, and lacking the squad depth to rotate enough to cope with the additional toll of injuries and fatigue. That phenomenon has hit particularly hard with Villa this year. They appear to have been saving their best efforts for their Champions League games; but their form in the League has been very up-and-down - and, over the past couple of months, just downright poor.... and recently getting worse. The only reason they're still in the top half of the table, just, is that so many teams who should by rights be above them - Brighton, Brentford, Spurs, Manchester United: perhaps even Everton and Wolves - have also been having a dreadful time for much of the season.

And now - they're without almost all of their preferred starters in defence (Konsa, Pau Torres, Mings, Cash) going into Gameweek 25. And their star striker Ollie Watkins has only just tentatively re-entered training after nearly two weeks out with a worrying hamstring strain.

So,.... no-one with any sense would touch any Aston Villa 'asset' with a bargepole at the moment....

And yet....  Villa players have been some of the most transferred-in over the past two weeks, and their coach Unai Emery is perhaps the leading pick to bet the 'Assistant Manager' chip on this week!

It's purely the mystical allure of the Double Gameweek, of course. The naive assume that having two games must automatically ensure a higher points return. But it does nothing of the kind; the returns are fixture-dependent - and if the fixtures in a double aren't good, plenty of Single Gameweek alternatives will out-perform the doublers.

Villa's GW25 is effectively a 'Single Gameweek', because you can't realistically expect them to get anything against Liverpool - even playing at home, even against a very sub-par Liverpool (and there's no reason to suppose there's anything too wrong with Liverpool's form, just because they unluckily dropped points to a freak late goal in an even more-emtionally-charged-than-usual Merseyside derby last night). And Ipswich - greatly strengthened in the transfer window, and fighting for their Premier League survival - probably won't be a pushover either... not for a team struggling as badly as Villa have been lately.

I think Emery is unlikely to reach 10 points for the 'Assistant Manager' chip this week; and might not reach 5!

Meanwhile, Marco Silva, Vitor Pereira, and - yes - Ipswich's Kieran McKenna have an opportunity to earn the hugely lucrative table-bonus for getting something out of a game against a higher-ranked opponent. The most promising option on that front, though, must surely be Brighton's Fabian Hurzeler - who hosts a recently very flakey-looking Chelsea (who've just lost their star centre-forward to a hamstring injury) on Friday evening: he actually looks to have decent prospects of a table-bonus win, rather than just a very hopeful and speculative chance of a draw....

I don't even want to play this damned new chip, though; I think it ruins the game. I am taking the high road on this by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season. Please consider joining my Boycott.  Or, if exiting the game altogether is too much for you, at least think about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip - and criticise and complain about it online as much as possible.

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip