Nobody gets a double-digit haul FOUR times in a row!!

Well, OK, Phil Foden just did! But it almost never happens.

Even really exceptional players won't often manage a double-digit return more than 4 or 5 times a season. To get even 2 such big hauls back-to-back is fairly uncommon; a string of 3 is very rare; 4 or 5 in a row is possible, it will happen occasionally, but... it's a real 'Black Swan Event', incredibly unlikely. [Actually, I'm not sure it has ever happened before. FPL put up a post on their Facebook page on Monday suggesting that Foden's 4-in-a-row was a "first time in history" feat; but they neglected to specify if this was a first just for him, or for anyone.]

Basically,... the longer a sequence of big hauls extends, the less likely it is to continue. You could, with relative safety, bet a large amount of money that Foden will get a more modest return in Gameweek 17 (even though he's at home, against West Ham!); and if, by some freak of nature, he does manage another 10+ points haul in that game, you can bet your house that he won't do it again in Gameweek 18.

That's not at all to say that Phil Foden (or Harry Wilson, who's also just racked up 4 good hauls back-to-back - although the 2nd and 3rd were only 8-pointers; or Bruno Fernandes, who's posted 3 double-digit returns in his last 4 games) would be a bad pick at the moment; far from it. 

But you should be realistic in your expectations. When you buy in a player because he's just had 1 or 2 (or 3, or 4....) really good hauls in a short space of time, you shouldn't be counting on him doing it again immediately, this week. That is statistically very unlikely. You should accept that he's probably 'due' a blank or two now; and you shouldn't quickly get impatient with your new purchase if that happens. You should be buying players for a run of games - at least the next 3 or 4 fixtures, hopefully more like twice that many - not just the next game. And you should be happy if he averages a decent points-return over that run.

Being unreasonably greedy in your points-expectations of a player is a recipe for disappointment, frustration,.... and further rash, impulsive transfers to try to 'put things right' (when there's probably nothing actually wrong - apart from the fact you were hoping for something absurd).

If a player can bring you, say, 3 returns of 6-8 points over the next 5 games, that's a very good result. You should be more than satisfied with that - not fretting that his little sequence of 12 or 15-pointers suddenly dried up as soon as you bought him.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 16

I always think of December as 'Random Month': mounting exhaustion, mostly dreadful weather, and a slew of unpredictable 'rest rotations' lead to some yo-yo-ing form and a lot of unexpected results. At least on this Saturday, the sun shone... (although the second two games kicked off after dark!)... and the results all went as you'd expect. But the relegation favourites, Wolves, Burnley, Leeds, and West Ham, all put up significantly more of a fight this time, while Liverpool and Chelsea suddenly got much better again, and Forest handed out a spanking to Spurs; and the final game on Monday night ended up being a ridiculous biff-bang! And there were again a lot of rotations in the lineups... and a lot of players dropping out of games with muscle strains.

Cole Palmer's back on the scoresheet - with a slick finish from a delightfully weighted through-ball from Gusto - but he says he's still struggling with the groin injury, and, for the second week running, was withdrawn from the action a few minutes shy of the hour; so, despite a handy 6-point haul, I think my warning yesterday that we should wait a while before thinking of bringing him back was warranted. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall became the latest victim of the seasonal injury crisis, having to come off with a thigh strain after just 15 minutes. Chelsea won this one fairly comfortably, although Grealish wasted a couple of good chances in the second-half, and Ndiaye hit a post. Garnacho also squandered a couple of the game's best opportunities, one in either half, and a scorching free-kick from Reece James was well tipped over by Pickford.

Arne Slot seems to have managed to smooth things over with Mo Salah, who looked relaxed and cheerful at Anfield - despite again starting on the bench. And it was somewhat fortuitous that he got the chance to come on after just 25 minutes when fill-in right-back Joe Gomez broke down with a muscular problem (although conspiracy theorists may suspect that this was partly pre-planned, perhaps even to the extent of Gomez faking his injury...?); there being no remaining fit defensive options on his bench, Slot had to shift Szoboszlai to right-back, opening up Salah's favourite spot on the right flank. (It had looked as if they might lose Szoboszlai too, when he turned his ankle badly and seemed to be in a lot of pain; he managed to run it off in this game, but I suspect he'll be limping now, and might be a doubt for next weekend.) Salah had a fairly lively game, and was conspicuously doing his best to be a 'team player' - tracking back a little bit, and looking for teammates to pass the ball to rather than hogging it himself. He even clocked an assist for the perfect inswinging corner which Ekitike - strangely unopposed - headed powerfully home at the far post. Alas, he didn't quite complete the perfect fairytale, as substitute Chiesa unselfishly squared the ball to him after a late breakaway by the pair, but Mo shanked it over the bar! Liverpool were a bit lucky to be able to grab such an early lead, with a dreadful pass out of the corner by Baleba gifting them possession on the edge of box and enabling Ekitike to volley into the roof of the net after just 45 seconds. Liverpool utterly dominated the first half after that, but couldn't carve out any more clearcut chances; and after the break, Brighton came back into the game, with Diego Gomez just failing to convert two of the game's best chances, as well as setting up Gruda for a cross-shot that fizzed just wide of the post. Gomez, though, was probably rather fortunate to stay on the pitch after a chest-high lunge on Wirtz; there wasn't much force in the contact, but it was a wild, wild kick and very high: those get a red 9 times out of 10.

Burnley actually played some decent football going forward, and their attacking numbers, including their final xG, were - somewhat surprisingly - slightly better than Fulham's. Unfortunately, their defending has become absolutely dire, worse even than Leeds's or Wolves's. I have serious doubts as to whether Scott Parker has any idea how to sort this out (he always comes across as pretty clueless in his post-match interviews), and I suspect he'll be the next manager to be sacked; something needs to change soon at Burnley, if they are to have any hope of escaping the drop. Although Fulham will be ruing the couple of dreadful defensive lapses that almost let Burnley back into the game, they produced an excellent attacking performance: Emile Smith Rowe was again superb (apart from one awful back-pass that nearly gave away a goal!) in the central playmaker-and-goal-poacher role, but was again slightly upstaged by Harry Wilson, who bagged a late third goal to add to his assists for the first two.

More selection chaos at Arsenal to challenge the nerves of long-suffering FPL managers! Timber and Saliba, who had both appeared to be still major doubts on Friday, were able to start the game alongside each other in central defence on Saturday evening, while Hincapie was having to fill in at left-back; but Ben White pulled up with a thigh-strain after half an hour, and had to be replaced at right-back by Myles Lewis-Skelly (although, exasperatingly, he was deemed to have only stepped on to the pitch a few seconds after the 30-minute mark, and so gets no clean sheet points - despite playing well over 60 minutes without conceding; the FPL rules can be cruel sometimes!). Odegaard was unexpectedly rested, giving Eze another start. And there was further seasonal woe when Arteta withdrew Eze, Martinelli, and Zubimendi a little shy of the hour, robbing anyone who owned them of a precious 2 additional points. Arsenal survived a big early scare when a solo break by Hwang left the entire Arsenal defence sprinting the length of the field in a vain attempt to catch him (an effort which resulted in White pulling his muscle), but unfortunately his shot from the edge of the box didn't have enough power to trouble David Raya. Apart from that, it was all one-way traffic, but the league leaders just didn't have much of a cutting edge and produced few clear chances - until Wolves began to tire in the last 20 minutes or so. It took a strange slice of luck to get the breakthrough goal, with a Saka corner just eluding Johnstone, striking the inside of the far post, and then cannoning into the goal off the back of the unfortunate keeper's shoulder. But Arteta's men then suffered another huge scare when they conceded an equaliser in the final seconds of regular time. Fate again smiled on them when Yerson Mosquera headed a Saka cross past his own keeper a few minutes later. Wolves are starting to look a lot better defensively (too late to do them any real good; but their goal for the season must now surely be to avoid setting a new lowest-points record), while Arsenal are still not really looking like champions (has their 'winter wobble' begun....?).

The 0=3 scoreline at Selhurst Park didn't fairly reflect the balance of the game at all: Oliver Glasner said afterwards, not unreasonably, that he thought his side's performance had perhaps been even better than in their victory over City in the Cup Final in May; they recorded 16 attempts on goal and had a far higher xG than their visitors - but City converted nearly all of their chances, while the home side couldn't, with Mateta and Ismaila Sarr being notably wasteful a couple of times, while Pino and the excellent Wharton both rattled the woodwork. There is also a strong case that Palace should have been able to pull it back to 1-1 with a penalty, and perhaps even seen Donnarumma sent off. The big keeper had flattened Mateta in the box, and, although he clearly got a hand on the ball, he was also very obviously using his legs to take the player down, to make sure; touching the ball isn't an absolute defence when you wipe an opponent out that cynically. Doku was an unexpected omission in this game, having suffered a leg injury in training late in the week. And Phil Foden, despite having a mostly fairly quiet game (and being gently criticised by Pep afterwards for a below-par performance), came up with yet another goal from distance to extend his absurd scoring streak even further.

Matz Sels, yet another player who's been suffering from a muscle strain this week, gave way to his new Brazilian understudy, John Victor, against Spurs. Forest's trio of goals were all somewhat freakish: an easy smash-and-grab after Vicario played a hospital pass to Archie Gray on the edge of his area, a 30-yard curler from Hudson-Odoi that was probably a misshit cross, and a 23-yard belter out of nowhere from Ibrahim Sangaré. However, the margin was thoroughly deserved; Spurs were never in the game at all, and might easily have lost by twice as many. One fears that Frank's job will now be very much on the line, and that perhaps even a Christmas sacking may be on the cards. Sangaré was a most improbable candidate for the performance of the week; only around 7,500 FPL managers own him - and I'd guess most of them left him on the bench!

Newcastle yet again looked short of energy and inventiveness after a European game in the week, and were comfortably contained by a combative Sunderland. The game would surely have been doomed to remain goalless but for Woltemade's unfortunate 'Own-Goal of the Season'! However, Brian Brobbey should surely have been sent off for crunching Miley's ankle, when he'd already picked up a booking for dissent - that might have completely changed the course of the game.

Villa, having to start Bizot and Lindelof instead of Martinez and Pau Torres because of injuries, were a little shakier defensively than they have been of late, and West Ham got off to a dream start when Matheus Fernandes nicked the ball off Konsa on the edge of the box and fired past the back-up keeper from a tight angle. The visitors, though, equalised almost immediately when Mavropanos headed a John McGinn cross into his own net. It continued to be a very even, end-to-end sort of game; and West Ham were really desperately unlucky not to have claimed the winner with a neat cross-shot from Bowen which was ruled out for offside: again, no SAOT graphic was offered to justify the call, and to the naked eye it looked as if he could only have been 'off' by the thickness of the shirt over his shoulder - an unjust decision, even if technically a 'correct' one. It's also a bit of a turn-up that Morgan Rogers, who is more of a support player than a goalscorer, and had only notched 3 goals previously this season, here bagged 2, the decisive second being a 25-yard banger.

Brentford absolutely dominated their visitors, Leeds, especially in the first-half, but just weren't able to make it count. They can feel slightly aggrieved that a penalty awarded by the referee for a rather minor bit of holding on Dango Ouattara was subsequently overruled by VAR, apparently for the forward's having been 'offside' by the thickness of his eyebrow. Jordan Henderson was a little fortunate to be credited with a goal, since his effort looked as if it was heading just the wrong side of the post until it deflected off a defender. Plucky Leeds came back very strongly in the last 20 minutes, and nabbed a late equaliser with a Calvert-Lewin header. Big Dom has somehow come into a bit of form again over the last month: he suddenly finds himself on his best scoring run in over 5 years!

And then, damn, the gameweek ends with a crazy humdinger of a goal-fest at Old Trafford: Tavernier and Bruno Fernandes both banging in spanking free-kicks, Semenyo and Cunha both dramatically ending their dry spells. However, it looks rather as though some very dodgy defending may have been as much responsible for the ridiculous 4-4 final score as these occasional moments of individual brilliance. There were a couple of moments of mild controversy: United felt play should have been stopped before Evanilson netted Bournemouth's second equaliser, because Dalot was on the floor with an apparent head injury; Dalot was also involved in an angry confrontation with Semenyo, in which the Ghanaian forward briefly put his hand on the side of the full-back's neck - leading to some speculation about whether such an angrily 'raised hand' might warrant a red card (no; they both got yellows for the contretemps, which seems fair).

The FPL 'Team of the Week' isn't looking quite so crazy as it usually has so far this season - although goals from defenders (again!!) are always a bit of a surprise; and surely almost no-one was backing Sangaré or Hudson-Odoi, or even Gusto for big points. And of the 10 most popular forwards, only Haaland and Ekitike produced anything this week: Thiago, Mateta, Joao Pedro, Gyokeres, Richarlison and Watkins all drew a blank, Welbeck barely got on the field, and Woltemade somehow managed a nul-pointer! Many, many FPL managers were stuck with 1 or 2 of those non-performers in their lineup. The splurge of additional Free Transfers granted us for the approach of AFCON this week has led to some frenzied activity in the transfer market, with probably the majority of stil active managers using all or most of them straight away as a 'mini-Wildcard': that means there's probably more variety between squads than we've seen for a while, and certainly a lot of difference from last week's lineups. This has led to it being a particularly polarizing week: it looks as if a substantial majority are below - perhaps fairly well below - the very modest 'global average' of 50 points, but there's a long, long tail on our distribution curve, with many people getting hauls in the 70s and 80s, and quite a lot breaching the ton. Popular new picks Phil Foden and Harry Wilson rewarded their purchasers very handsomely; the very reasonable alternatives of Rayan Cherki and Emile Smith Rowe, not quite so much; and anyone who'd gone without any of these probably had a fairly miserable gameweek! While anyone who brought in Dominic Calvert-Lewin for Nick Woltemade must be in possession of an uncommonly reliable crystal-ball.....

At least there haven't been too many egregious refereeing howlers; just the one instance of rather questionable leniency towards Diego Gomez when he planted his boot in the side of Florian Wirtz's ribs, Brian Brobbey even more mystifyingly escaping a sending-off for a bad second-yellow foul, a possible penalty for Palace, and an impossibly tight offside against West Ham to deny them a winning goal. On top of that, the large number of goals, a few unexpected rotations, early injuries, and early substitutions make this at least a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

The Palmer Conundrum

Now that Cole Palmer seems finally ready to return to regular action, after missing pretty much the whole season so far with a succession of niggling injuries, FPL managers are being confronted with the difficult decision of when - or whether - to transfer him into their squads.

With Mo Salah having proved to be worthless this season, and - so far - Isak and Watkins having failed to stake any claim on our attention either, there really hasn't been much pressure on budget in the 2025/26 FPL season; but there is always some budget-pinch. (Player spending always expands to consume whatever funds you have available...)  With Haaland still being, for now, that great rarity, a true FPL 'essential', and fiendishly expensive (especially if you didn't have him from the start of the season, but only acquired him after his price had begun to shoot up further!), and other moderately expensive players like Thiago and Woltemade and the top Arsenal or Palace defenders also having become 'must-haves' for most FPL managers, there isn't that much spare cash knocking around for anyone.

Hence, this really becomes a Saka/Palmer Conundrum: Bukayo Saka is the only similarly priced player, and one of the only midfielders at any price-point who's currently playing well and producing points; so, if you fancy acquiring Palmer, the only convenient pathway to him is to swap out Saka. There doesn't seem to be any reasonable way to afford both of them. And if you don't have Saka (rather surprisingly, only 21.5% of FPL managers do at the moment), it's still going to be awkward to juggle your budget around to accommodate such an expensive new acquisition as Palmer - probably requiring the use of multiple transfers (unless you had a lot of unspent money somehow swilling around in the kitty...).

Now, I am a huge fan of Palmer. And I do believe that he is a slightly 'better' player than Saka, both in real-world terms and for FPL purposes (though it's a foolhardy and unnecessary comparison - they are different types of player, with different strengths and weaknesses): Palmer has more variety in his game (though that's very largely down to how their managers make use of the two players), is more the principal playmaker (where Saka is merely a primus inter pares amongst many strong attacking options, and largely plays second-fiddle to Odegaard as the main creative force in the team), and - when really on song - is an even more prolific provider of both goals and assists.

But there's the crux of the matter. Palmer went through a long spell last year - most of the second-half of the season - where his FPL productivity fell off a cliff. It wasn't really his fault; the rest of the team had stopped performing around him. But that continues to be a problem with Chelsea: they can be astoundingly brilliant in individual games or short runs of games, but Enzo Maresca still doesn't seem to have been able to build any lasting consistency or resilience into their play. And that has continued to be the case this season, with embarrassing losses to the likes of Brighton, Manchester United, Sunderland and Leeds interspersed among some much more impressive performances. 

So, even 'peak' Palmer might fail to produce very much if the rest of his team is misfiring. And after such an extended lay-off, it will surely take him a little while to get back to his best. He was pulled after less than an hour against Bournemouth last week, and was immediately given a precautionary rest again, rather than being brought along as a bench option for the Champions League game against Atalanta on Tuesday. He's not physically anywhere near 100% yet; and recovering full mental sharpness might take a bit longer still. 

Furthermore, Chelsea's upcoming fixtures aren't the best from now through till the beginning of January: Newcastle and City away, and defensively solid Everton, Villa and Bournemouth at home.

For me, this is clearly a wait-and-see decision. In present circumstances, it would be far too much of a risk to go in for Palmer straight away, before he's shown that he's recovered his best form; and also far too disruptive of your existing squad, if you had to sacrifice Saka (or one or more of your other more expensive players) for him, and/or make multiple other changes to rebalance your budget. [Well, damn, he did immediately come up with a very nice goal against Everton in Gameweek 16. But he said afterwards that he's still recovering from the groin problem, and he was again withdrawn a few minutes shy of the hour-mark. So, I stand by my assessment here that he's probably still some weeks away from being anywhere near his best again.]

Saka might prove to be expendable - though largely because there are so many rival claimants to a squad place from the limited club quota at Arsenal. Their defence is so superior to every other team's that we'll probably all want Gabriel again as soon as he's back, while also hanging on to another of their defenders (most probably Timber or Calafiori). Rice is looking like he could be a more consistent midfield points-producer than Saka this year. And there will probably be other attacking options - Trossard, particularly, but also perhaps Havertz or Merino or Martinelli on occasion - who merit consideration for short spells when they hit a scoring streak.

Saka, although he's been playing very well, hasn't yet produced the big points that we've often seen from him in the past (especially in the opening third of last season). And maybe he won't - as Arteta usually imposes a very limited and disciplined role on him, out wide on the right; and, as opponents get more used to these patterns of attack, they defend against them better, often double-teaming the tricky Saka when he gets near the box. 

I have a feeling that Saka is on the brink of exploding again in FPL: and today's game against Wolves would be a prime opportunity for him to do so! But I suspect that, this season, he will probably only contribute big FPL points in short 'hot streaks' - and we might find ourselves looking to move him in and out of FPL squads to take advantage of these, rather than relying on him as a long-term hold. Indeed, even when on such a hot streak - even when he's producing better than Palmer - we might still find ourselves able to do without him, because there are three or more Arsenal players who are even more worth having in those games.

I also think that Palmer will recapture his best form again at some point this season, possibly quite soon. And when he does, he'll probably be more worth having than Saka - or anybody else. But..... NOT YET. Wait and see.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW16 (25/26)

Not many major new injuries seem to have emerged from this week's European games (but suspensions, especially for accumulated yellow cards, will be a hazard throughout this month), although there are a bothersome number of nebulous 'doubts' - which I feel are even more of a hassle than definite exclusions, because of the complete uncertainty about whether they'll start. Unfortunately, this is not feeling like a good gameweek for a Bench Boost (or even the Free Hit!) because of this. 

And although the European competitions are out of the way for six weeks now, there may still be an increased risk of rotations at Chelsea, Manchester City, Brentford, Newcastle and Fulham, who are all involved in League Cup Quarter-Finals next week, (Arsenal and Crystal Palace don't play their q-f until the Tuesday before Christmas.)

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 16?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Jurrien Timber supposedly picked up a knock last weekend which resulted in him being a late withdrawal from the midweek game against Brugge; very uncertain whether he'll be OK to start against Wolves on Saturday - and if he can't, Arsenal are getting stretched dangerously thin in central defence (is there a chance Rice or Norgaard might have to deputise there??). Declan Rice also missed the Brugge game because of illness, but the man is a tank and will probably bounce back straight away....?  Young Max Dowman has also picked up an ankle injury in training this week, which sounds moderately serious; he hadn't been getting many minutes so far anyway, but it's unfortunate that he now can't be involved at all until perhaps the end of January.

Emi Martinez suffered a recurrence of his niggling back-strain this week, and had to drop out of the squad for Thursday's game against Basel (and his understudy Marco Bizot really did not impress in that one). And Pau Torres suffered a calf-strain in that game, which looks likely to keep him out this weekend - Villa too are getting stretched very thin at the back; with Mings still unavailable, presumably Victor Lindelof will finally get a chance.

Marcos Senesi had to come off against Chelsea last week, feeling some tightness in his quad muscle - unclear how bad that is, Iraola was trying to be upbeat about it; but yet another 'doubtful' starter for this gameweek.

Liam Delap had to come off against Bournemouth last time after landing heavily on his right shoulder: nothing broken or dislocated apparently, but still likely to be out for a few weeks (he hadn't been playing very well anyway, and Marc Guiu really deserves a run of starts in his place; although if Palmer is now starting in the middle, Joao Pedro might shift back into a more conventional No. 9 spot). Wesley Fofana is also a doubt, having had to come off with vision problems after being kicked in the face in Tuesday's defeat at Atalanta; it sounds like it was bruising around the eye that was the problem rather than a concussion, but the 'protocols' might still be in play - and even the eye problem might not be trivial: another big doubt for the weekend. Cole Palmer was omitted from the trip to Italy, but that appears to have been merely precautionary, as he's feeling his way back from a long absence; he lasted nearly an hour against Bournemouth last week, and appeared to be moving easily.

Daniel Munoz had to have surgery on the 'minor' knee problem that unexpectedly kept him out of last week's game: probably just a cartilage issue, as he's apparently expected back in just a month or so. Jean-Philippe Mateta was omitted from Thursday's Conference League match in Ireland due to an ongoing knee niggle, but Glasner doesn't seem to think it will keep him out of the City match.

Ryan Sessegnon missed the Palace game last week because of a hamstring strain suffered in training; not too serious, but going to keep him out this week as well.

Cody Gakpo suffered a muscle injury of some kind against Leeds last week, and is now expected to be out for some weeks. At least this eases much of the uncertainty around Slot's selections: presumably Isak is now safe for a while as the No. 9 (and that might give him the confidence to rediscover his form of last year?), while the much better Ekitike can be guaranteed a regular start on the left, and Wirtz will operate more centrally - where he's likely to be more dangerous. Back-up midfielder Endo Wattara has also suffered an ankle injury in training, which will make him unavailable for a while.

John Stones has suffered yet another leg muscle problem, and is likely to be out for some weeks. He's only been a very occasional starter for City anyway; but this is an unfortunate setback for his England hopes.

Matthijs de Ligt missed last week with a back problem, and seems to be still not right now. Benjamin Sesko was apparently ready to be considered for a return after being out for over a month with a knee problem, but somehow came down with a bout of food poisoning this week. (The things people will do to avoid playing for Ruben Amorim...!!)

Joelinton had to come off in the midweek game against Leverkusen with a groin strain. Will that mean another start for Lewis Miley - or Joe Willock?

Matz Sels has also been suffering with a tight groin and was rested for the Europa League match against Utrecht - but Dyche is hoping he'll be OK again for the weekend.

Destiny Udogie missed last week's game against Brentford, and it's now been confirmed he has a hamstring strain which will keep him out for at least a few weeks.

Two of Wolves's more dangerous players, Jean-Ricner Bellegarde and Marshall Munetsi, both suffered muscle injuries in Monday's game against United, and look likely to miss at least the next six weeks.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Sunderland's Luke O'Nien is beginning a three-match ban for a 'serious foul play' red card last week against City. Moises Caicedo and Lewis Cook are serving the last part of their three-match bans this week. Burnley's Lucas Pires has a one-match ban for his 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' offence against Newcastle. And their occasional midfielder Hannibal has just received a four-match ban for spitting at Leeds supporters in a game back in October.

Riccardo Calafiori, Kyle Walker, Kevin Schade, and Conor Bradley are the latest players to be suspended for picking up a fifth yellow card of the season. Here are the other players now getting close to a 'totting up' suspension.

Mo Salah has reportedly had 'peace talks' with Arne Slot; but given the extent of the rift between them, it seems unlikely that these can achieve much. In fact, Mo's latest mutterings seem to be suggesting that he'll only be turning up at Anfield today to 'say goodbye' to the fans. He hasn't been remotely worth having for FPL this season anyway; but, sadly, it does rather look as if his time at Liverpool is over.

It was widely expected that players competing in the African Cup of Nations tournament would have to depart at some point during the last week; but, after much manoeuvring behind the scenes as clubs have lobbied hard for players to be allowed to stay with them as long as possible, FIFA seems to have decided that their clubs don't have to release them until Monday 15th December, less than a week before the tournament kicks off. (And Manchester United have crowbarred themselves a further dispensation that will allow their trio of Mbeumo, Diallo, and Mazraoui to remain with them for their game against Bournemouth on Monday evening.) So,... none of these players should be missing this weekend. But we'll lose quite a few for Gameweek 17.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

As I predicted some weeks ago, Ebere Eze looks to have been instantly marginalised by Martin Odegaard's return; he's much less significantly involved if having to start out on the left - and last week was so ineffectual against Villa that he was replaced by Trossard at half-time.

Jean-Philippe Mateta, as I also foresaw, has been pretty unimpressive of late; and there are certainly a number of far stronger forward options you might replace him with.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Fulham players are suddenly becoming very appealing assets, because of their upcoming trio of 'gimme' fixtures. I particularly like the prospects for Emile Smith Rowe - and also United's Mason Mount, and Newcastle's Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall.

Phil Foden is on a hot streak, of course; but those tend to burn out very quickly - and he has become rather over-popular. I still fancy Jeremy Doku or Rayan Cherki (although he was chided by Pep last week for his impudent Rabona cross to set up Foden's headed goal!!) as potentially stronger picks from City for the long-term.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Picks of the Week (7)

DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I will occasionally try to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves'. (And some weeks, most weeks, I'll have nothing.....)

Now, these ideas for Gameweek 16 of this season are perhaps even more speculative than usual.... I reiterate that none of the prospects I tend to discuss in this series are categorically unmissable opportunities, they're more intriguing possibilities that are perhaps being unduly overlooked. And there may be more of those than usual this week because so many people are using up all or most of their AFCON Free Transfer bonanza straight away - making this one of the busiest weeks of transfer activity in the whole season (very probably the busiest!); and yet there are a relative handful of 'most popular transfers' dominating that activity so far, and it doesn't include any of these guys. I am not trying to say my trio below are 'better' than any of those many much, much more popular picks; but I do think they are worth some consideration.

So, first up, I give you Mason Mount. Of course, the reservations about him would be the fact that he's playing for Manchester United, who, though greatly improved this season, are still showing rather inconsistent and unconvincing form; that form might well get even worse when they lose their - so far - only consistent goal-threat in Mbeumo, and one of their most potentially game-changing creative talents in Amad Diallo to AFCON next week; and lastly, of course, his terrible injury record since joining the club has undermined a lot of people's faith in his being able to stay fit for any length of time (or his being able to inspire his manager to trust him with regular minutes). But to counter that, I would say that we know from his performances at Chelsea - and for United, whenever he's managed a start - just how good he can be; and he has looked absolutely on fire recently, scoring a goal in each of his two recent starts for United. Moreover, I think the AFCON departures actually work in his favour: the most obvious slot for him to slip into is as a replacement for Mbeumo in the right-sided 'deep attacker' role; and the only other person who can really fill that slot is Diallo. So, if he can stay fit, he's pretty much guaranteed a start, I think; and probably in the role that gives him the most opportunity to register attacking contributions. And the fixtures are quite encouraging: a very nice run of Wolves, Leeds, and Burnley over the holidays, but recently faltering Bournemouth up next could be a good opportunity too, and Villa and Newcastle aren't too daunting either: Villa have been 'over-performing' dramatically, and are due for a stutter, while Newcastle usually struggle a bit away from home.

Next.... I rather fancy Emile Smith Rowe from Fulham as well. As with Mount, the main problem with him is his poor injury record in the last couple of seasons, and his shortage of starts so far this year, which have raised questions not only about his resilience to knocks, but more generally about his stamina and fitness (it may just be an unfortunate quirk of his physiognomy that he almost always looks just slightly overweight for a professional footballer....). But also like Mount, he has looked absolutely on fire in his last couple of outings for the club, and has an opportunity now to get much more regular gametime, with Alex Iwobi about to head off to AFCON. Moreover, it would appear that he's likely to be used in a central creative role, the kind of 'No. 10' space where he really thrives,... and that he's also now looking to break into the box with late runs pretty often, which may give him the opportunity to pick up quite a few goals as well as assists. This might be only a short-term punt, and I do have worries about how badly Fulham's already precarious form may suffer with the sudden loss of not only Iwobi but also Bassey and Chukwueze to the Nigeria squad, but.... their next three fixtures look very inviting: Burnley, Forest, and West Ham. The most popular Fulham transfer in FPL this week has been Harry Wilson, and I can see the appeal: he's been a fairly regular starter this year, and has been in pretty consistently outstanding form - with slightly better than one attacking contribution per two starts, including a few absolute bangers of goals. But he's had 335,000 Fantasy managers buy him this week, compared to less than 13,000 so far for Smith Rowe; and that's an unreasonable imbalance - it implies that people are just jumping on a bandwagon without fully considering the possible alternatives. As I said in this key post on the real meaning of 'differential' back at the start of this season, it is a mistake to suppose that there's any advantage in simply favouring less popular, lower-owned players in FPL; but.... if there's really nothing objectively to choose between two possible picks, then ownership level should be the tiebreaker. And I really believe that Smith Rowe's prospects in the next few gameweeks look just about as good as Wilson's, and possibly just a little bit better - but no-one's on him at the moment!

Finally, with Arsenal currently missing their three first-choice centre-backs to injury (which makes their remaining defenders slightly less secure picks than before; and Calafiori's missing with suspension this week too!), and Palace likely to be without their hugely influential right wing-back Daniel Munoz for at least a month, there's suddenly the scope to try out one or two new options in an FPL defence - and Newcastle full-back Tino Livramento looks like a very appealing possibility. He has looked absolutely sensational since his return from injury a month ago, and has helped to transform the performances of the entire team; he hasn't recorded any FPL returns yet, but that's surely just a matter of time. I am hesitant to back his team in their next game, as the North-East derby can be particularly volatile, and Sunderland this year are looking a really solid team; but they then have Manchester United, Burnley, Leeds, and Wolves in the next 5 weeks - one of the better fixture runs for any team at the moment. I do feel, though, that it's really a bit of a toss-up between him and his left-back teammate, Lewis Hall. Hall, for me, can be even more of an attacking prospect, but.... he doesn't always get so far forward down that flank, because Gordon and Barnes like to stay wide in the final third; and he's more recently back from injury, might not yet be trusted with heavy minutes in the packed holiday schedule.

So - there you have it: my 'Early Christmas Present' - 3 rather less expected 'ones to watch' over the coming weeks!

A little bit of Zen (72)

 

"Fiction reveals truths that reality obscures."

 

Jessamyn West

“Friction reveals truths that lubricant obscures.”

GW

I am never one to back down from an argument...  'Productive dialogue' is always good, I feel; even if it leaves blood on the floor.

Oh, she said 'fiction'? That just makes the joke better.... Still TRUE, though.

[I know, I know: some of these weekly aphorisms are a lot less 'Zen' than others.]

Just because you CAN, it doesn't mean you SHOULD

 

This applies particularly to transfer decisions in FPL: even if you feel there's a really pressing need to use a transfer to make a change right now, there's very likely to be an even more valuable use of it a little later on. Being able to use 2 or more transfers at once can be enormously powerful in expanding the scope of your possible changes and allowing major reallocations of budget.

But this doesn't apply only when using 1 or 2 transfers; it's just as true when making multiple changes at once. You need to be really, really sure that they are all immediately essential - because they're almost certainly not! The possibility of saving some of them for a further multiple change a little later on should not be overlooked.

We are seeing a particularly striking instance of this phenomenon just at the moment, because of the FPL Gnomes' over-generous - pointless - Early Christmas Gift of extra free transfers (supposedly to help tide us over AFCON: a very minor problem for which such additional help is completely unnecessary), so that we all now have a full complement of 5 saved transfers.

Many FPL managers have immediately blown the whole lot in one fell swoop. As I have commented recently on a few of the forums: Some of these extra transfers will almost certainly be more useful at some point in the future. Unlike the first Wildcard (and the extra Free Hit we've been given for the first time this year), this AFCON 'mini-Wildcard' has no time-limit, it can be rolled forward indefinitely... into the next half of the season. 

And keeping at least 1 or 2 of these transfers short-term, to cover a possible winter injury crisis or bad weather postponement, would be more valuable than an immediate splurge of impulse shopping. The thing that saves most people from over-indulging in chasing last week's points through silly 'sheep picks' is that they only have 1 or 2 transfers to use at a time. Doling out 5 at once was an especially inventive piece of cruelty from the FPL Gnomes, a damaging temptation that will just lead a lot of people into making rash and needless changes.

Using up 2 or 3, or maybe even 4 of these windfall transfers straight away would have been fine; but not keeping at least 1 or 2 of them in hand for a rainy day (or a snowy one, or a windy one...), literal or metaphorical, is likely to end in regrets.

And of course, the problem with choosing instant gratification over the delayed alternative is that we know rationally that the delayed gratification will be better for us,... but we can't resist the emotional satisfaction of indulging ourselves right now.

This is a hazard in FPL with playing the Bonus Chips as well: it is very easy to drop them on the first vaguely promising fixture that comes along. But the further into the season you get, the surer you can feel about your players' form and prospects (whether your preferred Triple Captain candidate, or your entire team/squad for the Bench Boost), and about the likely form of all the clubs and the likely outcome of their fixtures. And the nearer you get to the end of the window of availability of use for a chip, the more confident you can be that there are unlikely now to be many - or any - better options in which to play it in the future. Picking an optimum gameweek in which to use a Bonus Chip is very, very difficult; but it's almost never going to be in the opening month or two of the season.

Try to learn the value of waiting....

A bad outcome does not mean it was a BAD DECISION

 

FPL managers have an unfortunate tendency to judge their decisions - and everyone else's - only by the points outcomes that follow from them.

But exact points outcomes are unpredictable, very largely a matter of luck: unknowable before the event.

Therefore, they offer no help to you in refining your decision-making process. And only by doing that, can you hope to improve at the game - and gain more satisfaction in it.

If you were careful, thorough, open-minded and self-aware, and above all well-informed in your deliberations about a selection decision - then it was a good decision, the best decision you could have made in the circumstances.... regardless of the outcome. THAT is all that matters.

Some 'good decisions' in FPL don't pay off; some can turn out wretchedly badly. It doesn't mean they were 'bad decisions'. Whereas many selections that are made hastily, impulsively, based on sentiment or superstition, made in disregard of contrary data or more promising alternative options,.... can produce big points returns: that does not retroactively make them 'good' decisions. They were terrible decisions.... that got undeservedly LUCKY.

It is the quality of the decision-making process, not its ultimate outcome, that is important.

Many will object, "But, oh, how can you say the outcomes are not important? The game is all about how many points you get!"  Yes, indeed. But the thing here is that we have to believe there is ultimately some justice in the game (and there is; not as much as we'd like, but some) and that good decision-making will, over the long run, be more rewarded than bad, impulsive, ill-informed decision-making.

So, you should concentrate on the process. If you become more self-aware about how you make your decisions, you start making better decisions. And better decisions, over time, mostly will produce better results.

If you just make wild bets, chase hunches, follow 'sheep' trends, back your favourite player even when their form has tanked, or succumb to believing in daft superstitions like "Haaland always scores on a Tuesday!" or whatever,.... you might do well occasionally; but you'll never get any better.

In fact, letting yourself get over-excited about poor decisions that brought improbably good results can lead you into further bad habits. That is something you need to be very wary of. All superstitions grow out of doing something dumb that worked once. And all superstitions are ultimately BAD.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 15

I always think of December as 'Random Month' - mounting exhaustion, dreadful weather, and a slew of unpredictable 'rest rotations' lead to some yo-yo-ing form and a lot of unexpected results. And we seem to be getting that again this weekend, with our second set of December fixtures inside a few days. It's already looking set to be another stupendously low-scoring gameweek overall (like almost every one thiis season!!), with only Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, of all people, managing to get more than 15 points in the main batch of games on Saturday, and only 10 others scrabbling into double-digits (half of them defenders or defensive midfielders?!); nearly all the 'big names' are drawing blanks again. Oh, woe!

Arsenal's visit to Villa was a lot livelier than most lunchtime kick-offs, with some nice open football, and a few decent chances at either end: Ollie Watkins demanding a very good low save from Raya early on, and Eze appearing to have claimed the lead with a tap-in from a Saka square-ball into the six-yard-box, until VAR confirmed that the winger had made his run a fraction too early and been caught offside. It was the home side who eventually got in front, with a quick switch of play from left to right finding Mattty Cash in space on the far side of the box (Eze had momentarily fallen asleep and omitted to track him), and he was able to rifle the ball through Raya's legs from the corner of the six-yard-box. Arsenal should have been more alert to this danger, as a near-identical move had nearly produced a goal earlier, when only a brave last-ditch block from Declan Rice had thwarted a fierce half-volley from Cash just inside the penalty area. Arsenal started the second-half with all guns blazing and might have picked up 2 or 3 goals in the first 10 minutes or so; but after Trossard pounced on the leftovers of Martinez's save from a Saka cross-shot, they strangely slackened off again, allowing the home side to start coming back at them. For a while, the game was end-to-end, but Villa's pressure during the final 15 minutes became relentless, and their eventual last-gasp winner from Buendia, with literally the last kick of the game, after a protracted goalmouth melee, was well deserved, Villa are slowly growing on me: what they may lack in quality, they are more than making up for in organization and workrate, and this was their best performance of the season so far; something special was needed to end Arsenals three-month unbeaten streak, and they managed to produce it. Eze owners, though, will be reconsidering his value, in light of his being replaced by Trossard at half-time.

For me, Bournemouth did just about enough to have deserved the win against Chelsea, and it was disappointing to see Semenyo's early goal revoked after a ponderous VAR deliberation, because assister Evanilson had supposedly been offside when the ball was played to him. I have 3 big gripes about this: a) the margin was incredibly tight, allegedly just a shoulder and a knee-cap - and we really don't want to see goals disallowed for such impossibly small distances; b) you can't measure gaps like that with any convincing accuracy (it was so tight that the exact instant of the ball's leaving Alex Scott's foot would be decisive, perhaps to within hundredths of a second; but on the TV coverage, this was completely impossible to judge because Chelseaa players were blocking a view of Scott's foot); c) the SAOT graphic wasn't finally shared on TV until several minutes later (is that really how long they take to render? if they're not actually being used in the determination of the decision, what is the point of them??). Delap had to go off early after injuring - possibly dislocating? - his right shoulder after falling to the ground with Senesi on top of him in an inevitable bout of penalty area wrestling. (I have no sympathy. Delap is a thug who invites aggro - and an unnecessary number of cards for himself - with his constant niggling fouls. I think this week he picked on the wrong guy, and Senesi found a way to get him back, withou being punished for it.)  Bournemouth had the best double-chance of the match when Semenyo's crisp cross-shot was barely deflected wide by Sanchez's fingertips and then Evanilson, rushing in at the far post, somehow sliced wide from less than a yard out. Cole Palmer, finally back from injury, immediately looked lively and confident, but even his rangefinder wasn't completely dialled in as he overhit a few key through-balls; and the rest of his side were mostly misfiring as woefully as they had against Leeds a few days before.

Sean Dyche will be concerned at how anaemic his Forest looked on their visit to Everton: they hardly mustered a decent chance in the entire game, and were lucky not to go down by a small landslide. Gralish saw a fierce 20-yard effort strike the outside of the post, and Ndiaye brought a superb save from Sels in the second-half. Dyche felt that Everton's break for the first goal should have been stopped because the first pass might have touched the referee's foot as it was threaded through his legs as he gamely tried to jump over it; any such contact wasn't obvious and incontrovertible on the TV playback, and certtainly not in any way decisive. And we really don't want to see promising attacks thwarted by such trivial technicalities, much less goals that have actually been scored then being chalked off again by VAR. If the referee felt the ball didn't touch him, that ought to be decisive in a case like this. Tarkowski and Keane continue to be the league's most reliable providers of the new 'defensive points'.

City produced possibly their best performance of the season, and Sunderland one of their worst - but they were still a bit unfortunate to end up with such a drubbing at The Etihad: they really played well enough for the most part to deserve slightly better, and the final scoreline was a little flattering to the home side, who had to rely on a 25-yard belter from Ruben Dias, of all people, to give them a breakthrough after half an hour. A second goal just a few minutes later, a powerful Gvardiol header from  a corner, may have broken the visitors' spirits somewhat, but they came out for the second-half showing a lot of resolve, and were able to prevent ny further damage, apart from Foden's 65th-minute header from Cherki's impish Rabona cross (Foden did his best to loop the effort over the top, and was rather fortunate to see it just scud home off the bottom of the crossbar). Sunderland had, in fact, been unlucky not to pull one back shortly before that, when a rare mistake from Dias gifted the ball to Isidor to break through one-on-one with the keeper, but Donnarumma produced a fine block. Pep surprised people here by not rotating - apart from dropping Reijnders in favour of Cherki. And Haaland had another one of his occasional afternoons of anonymity - apart from one good hooked effort from 5 yards out that Geertruda was able to head off the line. That Haaland chance was again set up by Cherki, who also supplied substitute Reijnders with a sitter late on that he scuffed into the side-netting, and the Frenchman also had a firm cross-shot of his own well saved by Roefs - so, he was 'Man of the Match' by a wide margin, and unfortunate not to amass a huge FPL points total for the game.

Scott Parker's decision to start Armando Broja over the in-form Zian Flemming was a bit of a headscratcher - though at least the Dutchman was on for the last few minutes, and able to confidently despatch a penalty to put the visitors back in the game and give Newcastle a nervous time at the end. Burnley, I felt, were a little unfortunate to be reduced to 10 men before half-time: Lcuas Pires's challenge on Elanga was technically a foul, but the contact was fairly minimal, and looked to me as if it lacked any intent; such infractions, even if they interrupt a break on goal, don't seem to me to merit a sending-off - but the current interpretation of the rules on this seems to be veering towards 'strict liability'. Anthongy Gordon suddenly seems to be back in form, having two scorching efforts glance off the woodwork, and emphatically tucking away the penalty (disappointing for Woltemade owners, though, that he's lost that duty). And Guimaraes got the opener by swinging his corner directly into the far top corner, a real once-in-a-season (at most!) kind of freak event! At least here VAR was doing its job properly, twice intervening to correctly award penalties that the referee had initially missed.

Spurs were much improved for the visit of Brentford, inspired by the performance of Xavi Simons, suddenly brimming with energy and confidence again after several very frustrating weeks. Brentford were out-of-sorts, and were fortunate not to go down more heavily: Djed Spence had a shot well-saved by Kelleher, and Pape Sarr just couldn't get his feet sorted out to crack off the shot when the ball fell to him unmarked in the middle of the box and he had the whole goal to aim at for what seemed like several seconds - before he finally scuffed his effort straight at the keeper. A very promising turnaround for Spurs - and you wonder if this result might just possibly have saved Thomas Frank's job; he would surely have been in a world of trouble if he'd lost this one to his former club.

Arno Slot brought Bradley and Kerkez back in as his full-backs for the visit to Leeds, gave Macallister a rest in favour of Curitis Jones, sttarted Ekitike up-front instead of the misfiring Isak, and left Salah on the bench for the third successive game (unsurprisingly, he seems to be very unhappy about this; a move to Saudi next month is now a racing certainty, I fear...). I fret that all this rotation is born of desperation rather than calculated variation and managing of minutes, and is only likely to produce disgruntlement in the players suddenly dropped. The home side seemed to have rather the better of the exchanges in a fairly uneventful first-half, but Liverpool gained momentum when Ekitike stole a loose ball to slot past Perri early in the second; he notched his brace only a couple of minutes later, and nearly set Gakpo up for a third shortly after that. If Perri hadn't got a crucial hand to that effort, the game would surely have been done-and-dusted. But Liverpool strangely slackened the pace from that moment, and as Leeds gamely came back at them, they got a bit lucky with a very soft penalty decision against Konate (he barely made any contact, and it could be said to have been 'initiated' by Gnonto, who was going down already, just hopping over - and into - the defender's leg as he slid across between him and the ball). Calvert-Lewin, reported as a doubtful starter because of a calf problem, was playing, and on peanlties, and managed not to miss this one - a triple slice of good luck for anyone who happened to be on him this week (amazingly, nearly 100,000 do own him; although I'd suspect most would have left him on the bench). And then the Liverpool defence all decided to play statues while Anton Stach cantered through the middle of the box unopposed and slotted home an equaliser - to set up a thrilling final quarter of an hour in what had, up to then, been a mostly pretty dreary game. Liverpool quickly got back in the lead with a quick break culminating in a slick finish from Szoboszlai, but then they once more relaxed their grip on the game, allowing Leeds to come back at them yet again. And Slot will be especially alarmed and perplexed that his erstwhile impregnable defence completely failed to defend a corner in the dying minutes, allowing substitute Tanaka to volley home another equaliser at the far post. On balance, Leeds looked well worth the point here, while Liverpool were perhaps lucky to come away with that much. Slot is now favourite to be the next EPL manager to be sacked. I still don't see that happening quite yet; but if he can't start to turn things around within another month or so, I think it will (and an apparent revolt by their most iconic player, for which he must surely take much of the blame for poor man-management and failed communication, won't help his cause).

The first-half of the Brighton v West Ham game was a 45 minutes that made you question your life choices: a stupendously dull and inept slice of football. At least both sides came out with greatly increased urgency after the break, but execution was still largely lacking, as again and again passes were overhit, misplaced, miscontrolled. Verbruggen made a superb double-save from Bowen and Summerville early in the second period (he looks to me the most in-form goalkeeper in the league over the last several games), but West Ham started looking immediately more dangerous with the introduction of Callum Wilson for the last 20 minutes, and he soon helped to produce a chance for Bowen to put the Hammers ahead. But Brighton have an impressive record for coming up with goals in the later stages of matches, and a sustained spell of pressure justifiably led to Rutter (although he'd had rather a poor game up to that point) claiming an equaliser just as the game moved into added-on time. Nuno is understandably, and perhaps rightly, upset that the goal was allowed to stand, since there was a hint of possible handball by Rutter on an earlier shooting attempt (looked to be on the upper part of the upper arm, and the ball cannoned on to the arm off the torso; so, it would have been a very harsh decision); there was, however, a much stronger case (which VAR did not seem to have considered) for 'dangerous play'against Kostoloulas, whose overhead kick did make like contact with Mavorpanos's forehead.

Fulham v Palace was a close-fought and fairly entertaining game, producing two of the best goals of the weekend, from Eddie Nketiah and Harry Wilson. The match was somewhat blighted, though, by yet another ridiculous VAR decision on an offside - Smith Rowe's goal, following up on a thurderous Iwobi header which had crashed against a post, was eventually disallowed for a supposed offside by winger Chukwueze at the start of the move, although the SAOT picture appeared to show that the margin was the riffling of the fabric of his shorts; even under the current insane definition of the offence, that decision ought not to have been made. This aberration perhaps balanced the scales of justice, though, as Joachim Andersen had earlier got away with clattering Nathaniel Clyne on the edge of the penalty area; the referee had somehow let it go, and VAR seemingly didn't want to intervene because it might have been outside the area (it wasn't). The home side had looked comfortably on top for most of the second half, but Palace roused themselves to a determined surge in the last 15 minutes, and were eventually rewarded with Guehi's late headed goal from a corner. The firecracker form of Chukwueze down the left flank (probably off to AFCON soon, alas) and another impressive display from Smith Rowe, thriving in the central role as a No. 10, will be some consolation to Fulham fans. The biggest news for FPL was the surprise omission of Daniel Munoz (to give a rare run-out for the long neglected Clyne).

Manchester United finally managed a decent win again on Monday night, although it was only against woeful Wolves - and even there, they made life difficult for themselves by conceding an equaliser on the stroke of half-time, but they came out strongly after the break and ended up comfortable winners. Amorim once again baffled FPL managers with his selection, starting Dalot rather than Dorgu on the left, and Mazraoui, Heaven, and Shaw as his centre-backs, while dropping the recently impressive Joshua Zirkzee up front. And Bruno Fernandes was rather fortunate to earn such good points in the game, his first goal being a weak, somewhat mishit effort that somehow dribbled through Johnstone's legs, and the second a very unjust penalty award (Mosquera did lean towards the shot, but he was trying to pull his arm behind his body, and the ball clearly struck his upper arm, near the shoulder - there was no way that was a penalty; and the referee appeared to have a good view of it the first time, so there was no call for VAR to tell him to take a second look).

The FPL 'Team of the Week', always one of the strongest indicators of how the tides of 'luck' are flowing each week, turns out to be yet another freakshow only Gvardiol and Foden have any significant FPL ownership (and Bruno Fernandes, who gained late - and highly fortuitous - accession to 'Player of the Week'!). Moreover, it's been another gameweek with a painfully low 'global average' of just 49 points; and another gameweek in which the points distribution seems to be heavily skewed towards the low side - the great majority of managers actually getting somewhat below that average, and only a long thin tail, a lucky handful, achieving scores in the 80s, 90s, or low 100s; not that many - in my mini-leagues, anyway - getting much over 50, in fact! However, we do seem to have been, for once, relatively free of refereeing cock-ups in this gameweek, although there has been at least one likely penalty overlooked (for Crystal Palace), one unfairly given (for Manchester United), a couple of very dubious offside calls denying goals, and the probably wrongly allowed late equaliser for Brighton. Outlandish events like a goal direct from a corner, a few more rotation nightmares, 'blanks' from almost all the most popular FPL picks, quite a high tally of 30 goals (5 of them from defenders!!) and just 4 clean sheets, and 'upset' results for Liverpool and Arsenal... still make this at least a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'

.

Dilemmas of the Week - Gameweek 15 (25/26)

Amazingly, we seem to have been spared too many new injury concerns in this packed week of league fixtures (although suspensions, especially for accumulated yellow cards, will be a hazard throughout this month), so this rundown can once more be a relatively concise one.

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 15 of the season?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Christhian Mosquera suffered a leg injury in the game against Brentford in midweek (still not clear exactly what, or how serious, but seems likely to keep him out for a few weeks at least). With Saliba still doubtful, it seems likely that Timber will now play alongside Hincapie in the centre, making room for Ben White to return at right-back (he started there anyway on Wednesday - apparently just to give Timber a rest - and turned in a 'Man of the Match' performance!); but both of those could be very short-term assignments: once Saliba is back, it's quite likely that Timber and White will again be contesting, and perhaps rotating the right-back slot. Declan Rice also had to come off with a knock in that Wednesday night game, but it doesn't sound too serious.

Emi Martinez was a last-minute withdrawal from the Wednesday game against Brighton with a back problem, so it seems likely that Marco Bizot will continue to deputise for him for a little while.

Yasin Ayari also had to miss out on that Villa match with a muscle strain suffered in training. And the young Greek striker Stefanos Tzimas had to come off in that game with a knee injury that might be quite serious.

Burnley defender Axel Tuanzebe missed out on the Wednesday game against Palace because of a training knock, and is expected to be out for a couple of weeks. (This might actually be to Burnley's advantage, if it spares him from an AFCON call-up... Conspiracy theorists might indeed speculate that the injury is purely fictitious.)

Sandro Tonali may be a slight doubt, after apparently suffering a dead-leg in the game against Spurs.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin suffered a calf-strain in the surprise win over Chelsea, and could now be out for a few weeks, while Leeds's first-choice striker, Lukas Nmecha, might be out even longer after apparently pulling a hamstring in that match. Presumably, Joel Piroe will now finally get a chance to start up front for them.

Matthijs de Ligt missed out on Thursday's West Ham game with a training knock, but Amorim hopes he might be OK again to face Wolves on Monday night. If he's not, United are getting stretched a bit thin at the back! Diogo Dalot was also struggling with a leg-muscle problem at the end of the West Ham game, but that appears to be not too serious....

Destiny Udogie hasn't quite got back to his best since his return from injury, and appeared to be limping heavily at the end of Tuesday's draw at Newcastle - so, might give way to Djed Spence again this weekend.

Wolves left-back Hugo Bueno missed the Forest game in midweek because of a back-muscle problem, and Marshall Munetsi suffered a calf-strain in that match (although the cynic in me again suspects the club are playing up that one to try to get him out of going to AFCON with Zimbabwe)

Does anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Bournemouth's Tyler Adams, Everton's Tim Iroegbunam and Wolves's Joao Gomes are the latest players to have to miss a match for collecting a 5th yellow card. These are the other players now getting close to a 'totting up' suspension.

Moises Caicedo and Ryan Christie have the second instalment of their three-match 'violent conduct' bans this weekend, and Idrissa Gueye is serving the last part of his suspension for slapping Michael Keane for a loose pass out of defence.

West Ham defender Igor Julio is on loan from Brighton, so ineligible to turn out against the parent club this week.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

'The Sheep', of course, are getting terribly excited about Phil Foden. But I'm still nervous of Pep Roulette, especially at this very busy time of year (and especially because, in recent years, Pep has often seemed to bench him, for no obvious reason, precisely when he's appeared to be coming into top form - almost as if he just doesn't want him to get too big for his boots?!). I still think City's team form isn't stable enough for it to be worth betting on more than one of their midfielders (and maybe not more than one of their players from any position in addition to the, for now, still 'essential' Haaland), and Jeremy Doku still looks likely to be the most regular and reliable points scorer from them. But with a make-or-break Champions League game away to Real Madrid next Wednesday, this weekend's selection at The Etihad is even more of a lottery than usual; it does seem dangerously likely that several top players - perhaps even Haaland - will get only fairly short minutes, or perhaps remain on the bench throughout.

The imminent Early Christmas Present of extra transfers to help us get over AFCON means that this weekend, Gameweek 15, could in effect be a mini-Free Hit: we are incentivised to use all our existing transfers at once (to gain maximum advantage from the extra ones available after the deadline passes), but we could undo all those changes again immediately the next week if we wanted to (the splurge of additional Free Transfers in GW16 being effectively a mini-Wildcard for that gameweek, or one of the ones soon following).

AFCON itself is not likely to be directly much of an issue (apart from Salah [why does anyone still own him??], Mbeumo is the only high-owned player affected; Semenyo and Kudus are not taking part in this year's tournament), although it may lead to some interesting fluctuations of form and revision of team selections in teams that are losing key players.

Also - REMEMBER, the 1st Round of the FPL Cup is this weekend!!

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

UP for the Cup!

There is an FPL head-to-head knockout 'cup' competition for each of the leagues we're enrolled in, as well as in the overall 'global ranking'; but, over the years, they've done absolutely nothing to promote this dimension of the game!

At least this year, these side competitions have achieved slightly greater prominence through now being separately listed on our main account pages, in the left sidebar, underneath our placings in all our leagues (if you can be bothered to scroll all the way down...); whereas, in the past, you had to find a tab to switch views from 'League' to 'Cup' and it was easily missed, and most people probably never had any inkling it was there, or that these competitions existed.

But the FPL Gnomes still seem to be saying NOTHING about the cup competitions in their regular burps of publicity material....

It turns out that the global Cup is kicking off this week!  Who knew???

Gosh, yes, there are 2^24 registered users this year!! Well, not quite: 4 million or so managers will be getting a bye in the opening round.

In most previous years, I have failed to pay any attention to the global Cup - not realising when it had started! - until long after I'd been eliminated from it.

And I would generally counsel against paying too much attention to it, as obsessing about head-to-head results is detrimental to your long-term goal of getting the best possible points total for the season.

However, Cup competitions in the smaller mini-leagues are a nice little side-event that can provide a lot of fun in the game - and, sometimes, a lot of consolation for disappointing overall performance. (You can luck into a good cup run even if you're doing pretty terribly in points and league rankings!)

So, pay attention to when your mini-league Cups are due to start. (It takes just a little bit of maths to work it out. Check the size of your league, find the nearest higher figure in this 'powers of 2' table [unless it's an exact match, there will need to be a preliminary round - with some players getting a 'bye' - to whittle the number down to nearest power of 2; the number of competitors being halved in each round], and then subtract the number of that power from the number of gameweeks in the season [38] and add 1 to find the number of the starting gameweek.)

And have some FUN with them!!!