Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 7

This had all the hallmarks of another pretty dire weekend for FPL, with Arsenal, City and Spurs having favourable-looking fixtures - the rest all being rather too closely matched to call easily, and quite likely to result in turgid stalemates. And so it largely turned out, with a raft of games that were almost unwatchably dull, and only the top-of-the-table clash at Chelsea really providing much excitement.

At least it appears as though PGMOL may have revised its guidelines on VAR, since we've mostly seen quick and painless restarts after goals this week, whereas last week there were delays of at least a minute or so every single time - even when there appeared to be no possible incident requiring a double-check. Let us hope that this is genuine progress, and not just an unrepresentative blip! But there is still so much more that needs to be fixed about this bloody system...

Friday night's game at Bournemouth gave us a remarkably uncontroversial start to the week. The home side powered through fairly comfortably against Fulham, despite conceding an early goal to a neat finish from Sessegnon. Antoine Semenyo's hot streak refuses to peter out (as, I confess, I have been expecting it to - as it always has in the past, after fewer games than this); this time he picked up an assist as well as a brace of goals. So, the 43% of FPL managers who don't yet own him are royally screwed this week! (However, Kluivert is finally back; and that is likely to cut into his returns substantially - particularly if he takes over the duties on penalties and free-kicks.) The other big 'news' for FPL was that Senesi, as well as disappointingly failing to keep an anticipated clean sheet, failed to earn 'defensive points' for the first time - being the last defender to lose a 100% record on this. (Some people had been fondly hoping that he and a few others were going to pick up the extra points almost every week; but it's always been fairly obvious that even the best performers under this new criterion would probably not manage a return much better than once in every two or three games across the season.)

Richarlison's omission from the starting eleven (presumably just being 'rested' after a tough Champions League game) was a blow to the 16.5% of FPL managers who own him. Even a slighly lacklustre Spurs were good enough to beat Leeds - although the home side had a lot of very good chances (more than 3x the visitors' xG!!), and Vicario had to make a sharp save from a Piroe volley right at the end to hang on to the points (although he had been slightly at fault on Okafor's equaliser). Tel's opener was a belter, but I don't take too much encouragement from Kudus's winner (although he was impressively busy in other dimensions of the game, his finishing still looks off) - a scudding effort that needed a decisive deflection from the unfortunate Struijk to beat Darlow in goal; while he had blazed wide from the game's best chance in the first half, and tamely wasted a free-kick in an excellent position in the second. Simons also had a difficult game (he's just not as effective in the central No. 10 area as he is out on the flank; and it seemed odd that he was preferred to Bergvall, given his recent form, unless there was a fitness issue with the Swedish youngster), and looked to be almost in tears of frustration when he was eventually withdrawn.

Saka didn't actually look that sharp on his full return for Arsenal, but was able to emphatically convert a penalty to underline the result (and had an earlier effort rightly ruled out for being clearly offside). Again, remarkably little refereeing incident in the game: there wasn't much doubt that Timber had been bundled over by Diouf on the 18-yard line, and only the briefest of checks was necessary to confirm that, even if the contact had started just outside, the bulk of it occurred inside the penaly area. West Ham looked rather more coherent in defence, but still couldn't muster a threat going forward. Disappointment this week for backers of Calafiori in the weekly debate over 'who is the best Arsenal defender (for FPL)?'; he cracked a fierce drive against the woodwork, while Timber picked up an assist for 'winning' the penalty and Gabriel was the only Arsenal player to earn 'defensive points' this week (and only just); it's curious that Saliba, the Sheep's darling over the last two seasons, isn't in this conversation at all at the moment! Arteta's joy at going top ahead of faltering Liverpool may be slightly undercut by the fact that both Odegaard and Rice had to come off with injuries.

A flailing Ruben Amorim continues to make multiple changes every week, even when there's no apparent need for them. Lammens was handed his debut in goal, although Bayindir had in fact produced an outstanding display last week; Mount was rushed back from injury to replace Cunha (a more combative option for pressing high up the pitch, presumably?) as one of the 'joint 10s', and Dalot was switched to the left side to accommodate the return of Amad Diallo to the right wing-back role. It might be argued that all of this tinkering 'worked', since United did produce one of their best - or least worst - performances, and ended up fairly comfortable winners against promoted Sunderland. But the visitors were surely at fault for being much too passive in the opening 25 minutes or so; as soon as they started getting on the front foot a bit more, they caused the home side a lot of problems. VAR was actually doing its job properly for once, as they directed a review of a penalty originally awarded against Sesko for appearing to kick Hume in the side of the head; it was actually very clear that there had been no contact (and I would have been very happy for VAR to be able to make a call like that on their own) - but the high boot should surely still have resulted in an indirect free-kick for 'dangerous play'?  Sesko was also at the centre of the week's great BPS mystery, somehow receiving the maximum 3 bonus points despite having done almost nothing in the game, apart from hooking in Dalot's long throw for the (ultimately irrelevant) second goal. I really feel at the moment that wins are not helpful to Manchester United overall: a loss to Sunderland here would surely have seen Amorim given his overdue marching orders; now they might be stuck with him for weeks or months longer; and I just don't see that working out well.

Chelsea's opener was a rocket from Caicedo, from well outside the box (the one-goal-a-season man is suddenly posting striker numbers??!!). Maresca got himself booked on the touchline for protesting the non-award of a penalty to Garnacho for a supposed 'push in the back' from Szoboszlai - but it was such a light and fleeting contact that there was nothing in the appeal at all; and the Chelsea manager should rather have been grateful that the Argentinian was not penalised for his exaggerated dive. He'll now face a touchline ban for the next game, after picking up a second yellow for over-celebrating Estevao's late winner. Apart from a promising spell early in the second half, when Wirtz briefly provided some new energy up-front, having been brought on at half-time while Szoboszlai was moved to right-back in place of Conor Bradley, Chelsea were well on top for most of the game, and actually seemed to gain renewed focus and energy from Gakpo nicking an equaliser against the run of play; their eventual win - with yet another deep in added-on time effort from the young Brazilian substitute - seemed well deserved. Garnacho, with an elegant curler in the first half, and Enzo, with a firm header in the second, had both hit the woodwork; and Mamardashvili made a pair of excellent saves in quick succession from Gittens and Estevao. Chelsea will be worried though, that both of their central defensive starters limped off in the second-half. And any FPL managers who still have Liverpool players should be discouraged not only by the side's flakey form but by Arne Slot's recurring penchant for making early substitutions. It might be a measure of what a comparatively disappointing match this was that apparently only Reece James reached the threshold for earning 'defensive points'. (If no-one was earning 'defensive points', no-one was creating much attacking threat!)

Aston Villa are finally starting to look a bit more lively, with Morgan Rogers in particular becoming more dangerous again. Ollie Watkins, alas, continued to be strangely anonymous, but Donyell Malen, joining him in the middle in an attacking pair, looks like he could be a revelation. Burnley, though, were again well in the game for the most part, and will be ruing their couple of defensive mistakes. Two refereeing question-marks in this one: Rogers felt he should have had a penalty, but I feel VAR was correct in viewing it as a trivial tug on the shirt that set Rogers play-acting. There was much more of a case with the late shout for a sending-off against Zian Flemming for thowing an elbow in the face of Emi Buendia; apparently, that was considered 'accidental' - but it didn't look that way to me.

Postecoglou's Nottingham Forest again failed to produce any sort of attacking threat, and Newcastle at home, even a little below par, dominated so comfortably, they really should have won by more than 2 goals. The only mild controversy was whether Bruno Guimaraes's slight shove on Gibbs-White as they ran into each should have invalidated his stunning first goal 10 seconds later; in one sense, possibly a 50/50 sort of call - and yet one that no-one is ever going to give.

Everton v Palace looked for a long time like it was going to be a game where two mediocre attacks would be cancelled out by two top defences. Although, Palace looked like the home side for most of the match, dominating easily, but failing to establish a decisive lead - thanks to some wasteful finishing from Sarr and Mateta, and a few smart saves from Pickford. Everton came back strongly at the end, but didn't really deserve (yet another!) late, late winner. At least no refereeing cock-ups in this one....

Wolves looked plenty good enough to have gained their first win against a rather lacklustre Brighton: Jhon Arias blazed over from the best chance of the game, after being set up by Hugo Bueno on the left, and Jorgen Strand Larsen cracked a drive against the foot of the near post late on. Bart Verbruggen is surely the unluckiest player of the weekend, initially making an excellent fingertip save to Munetsi's scorching volley, but having the ball rebound off the underside of the crossbar and then immediately bounce into the net off the back of his head as an 'own-goal'. As with Burnley, a late defensive lapse at a corner cost the home side the points.

Brentford did well to hang on in the game and keep it to a narrow loss, after allowing Haaland to bulldoze his way through the middle of their defence for an opener after only 8 minutes. They should really have had an equaliser when Thiago broke in behind on his own, but crucially miscontrolled the ball just as he approached the edge of the box and was rushed into a shooting effort that Donnarumma blocked fairly easily. They nearly nicked another shortly afterwards, when Donnarumma failed to notice Schade closing him down and blasted the ball straight at him - but the rebound luckily deflected wide of the goal (that probably counted as a 'save' for Donnarumma, though he knew absolutely nothing about it!). The major news in the game, though, was that Rodri - who had survived an hour or so in the Champions League in midweek with no apparent ill effects - broke down again here after just 20 minutes.

In a mostly rather drab and unexciting gameweek, there have been scarcely any major refereeing decisions to query. So, on the officiating, we were actually getting pretty close to our first ever ZERO (if only this weren't such a rarity!); but a fair number of injuries, omissions, stunning goals and efforts crashed against the woodwork still up the 'LUCK' factor somewhat. It's telling that while the 'Team of the Week' has a fairly high proportion of widely owned players this week, there are still some curveballs like Lammens, Van Hecke, Guimaraes, Malen, and Sesko in there! So, I think we're looking at a 2 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.