Luck-o-Meter - 25-26 Gameweek 3

 

Although most of the decisions ultimately seem to have been correctly determined (I have my doubts about the Manchester United penalty!), the major vexation of this weekend has been the unnecessarily, painfully long delays we seem tto be suffering with every VAR intervention. This really has to change soon; we can't be having every half of every game extended by 5 or 10 minutes just because the officials are so clumsy and ponderous in reviewing replays.

After last week's impressive demolition of West Ham, Chelsea suddenly looked very lacklustre and short of ideas again against their West London rivals, Fulham. It didn't help that Delap had to go off with a hamstring strain after just a few minutes; but there really seem to be all sorts of problems with the team still - the cohesion and confidence they discovered during the summer's Club World Cup is proving evanescent. They were, in fact, rather fortunate to avoid falling behind to an early breakaway for 18-year-old Josh King (Sanchez, somehow going the wrong way, easily beaten at his near post.... still major question-marks over this keeper!!); the effort was rightly ruled out for a foul by Muniz on Chalobah at the start of the move (but, as seemed to be happening all weekend, VAR took an inordinately long time even to recommend a review, and the review - which need only have taken seconds, and surely could have been determined by the VAR team themselves - took minutes more...; a lot of the punditry seem to be taking the bizarre view that a foul isn't a foul if it's accidental, but that is not in the rules; and frankly, the contact was very nearly severe enough to be considered as potentially 'serious foul play'). We then had to go through the same agony again early in the second-half when a completely clearcut handball for a penalty somehow took several minutes to be decided (and the poor ref was left spouting irrelevant nonsense about the defender "making his body unnaturally bigger" - he moved his arm towards the ball, it looked deliberate, case closed). This system is just an utter, UTTER MESS at the moment. I'd really prefer it to be scrapped altogether, until all the problems with it can be resolved. In Palmer's absence, Enzo Fernandez was on penalties rather than Joao Pedro: a pleasant surprise for some FPL managers and an unpleasant one for others - but unlikely to be of any further relevance, either way.

My predicttion before the Old Trafford game had been a low-scoring draw, possibly 0-0, probably 1-1 - maybe, if we were lucky, if one of the teams got an early breakthrough, a slightly more entertaining 2-2. I was looking spot-on during a mostly fairly arid first half. And things were not immediately more promising straight after the break; but then, 5 or 10 minutes into the second half, the match suddenly devolved into an end-to-end ding-dong which could easily have ended up at 5-5. Burnley were desperately unlucky not to get something out of the game; in fact, it feels rather unjust that they didn't win it. We endured yet another baffling VAR delay for the eventually retracted penalty decision against Kyle Walker on Mason Mount; it took the backroom team minutes, apparently just watching the same short clip over and over again, before even recommending the ref take a second look, and then Sam Barrott did the same, mulling the matter over for an inordinately long time before rendering a decision - when it appeared quite clear to me that Mount had initiated the contact, throwing his leg across in front of Walker, and then falling over (and the TV commentator said that VAR was stressing something about Mount having tugged at Walker's shirt - which was absolutely irrelevant to the issue in question; whatever else was going on in their little tussle, the final contact from Walker was not significant, not culpable, initiated by the attacking player). I would prefer to put up with the occasional wrong decision than regularly suffer such a pointless 5-minute hold-up in play.

United's opener was a huge stroke of good fortune, with a rebound off the crossbar cannoning into the goal off the shoulder of a Burnley defender. To add insult to injury, Lyle Foster's second equaliser was ruled out for a paper-thin offside - and yet again there was a yawning delay in the decision being given (if it takes a couple of minutes to produce the CG rendering of the incident, the 'semi-automated' system is not yet fit for use); and even worse, the graphic eventually produced did not clearly show that he was offside - for some bizarre reason, the decisive 'line' had been drawn on the defender's arm (and near the point of his elbow, not on the 't-shirt line' in the middle of the upper arm, a crucial extra inch or two nearer to the goal-line), when it really looked as if the relative position of the two players' toes ought to be definitive; and there was no further form of highlighting to demonstrate the attacker's point-furthest-forward, and the parallax on the view provided was so extreme that one really couldn't tell which player was nearer the goal-line. I've often said that we really don't want to see goals ruled out for such insubstantial margins anyway; but if it is going to happen, we need much more clearcut evidence from the assisting technology. Fortunately, Burnley did almost immediately get their deserved equaliser in a goal-mouth scramble. And then the match really might have swung either way during a frenetic last half-hour, but Burnley were defending steadfastly, and looked well worth a draw at least. It was a cruel, cruel blow that United were awarded a penalty deep into added-on time (after another HUGE delay for the VAR inervention, which resulted in the stoppages ultimately running to 12 minutes, rather than the originally scheduled 5...); and this time, Bruno didn't miss! My gripe with this one was that Barrott, plainly floundering under the pressure of having to publicly explain his reasoning, completely flubbed it: the crucial issue in this instance was where the decisive shirt-pulling had occurred (and, since it had clearly started well outside the area, and Anthony had released his grip as his hand crossed the edge of the area, for me the 'decisive moment' of the foul was clearly outside the area), but the poor ref didn't comment on this at all; it appeared that the VAR team's instruction to review had prejudiced him into assuming that there clearly was a foul (there was) and it clearly was inside the area (it wasn't). Very entertaining game; but a complete shit-show from start-to-finish on every aspect of the officiating - and thus getting us up to a very high 'Luck-o-Meter' score for the week all on its own. And then on top of everything else, Matheus Cunha (more than 8% ownership in FPL) became the latest victim of a muscle strain, having to retire quite early in the first half. (Mason Mount's withdrawal at half-time was presumably also down to a fitness issue, but there doesn't seem to have been any news on this yet.)

Sunderland are looking like the best organised and best balanced of this year's promoted sides, and are perhaps also the ones who are getting the biggest lift from their home fans. Their surprise winner late in added-on time will be a huge psychological boost in the early part of their campaign for survival. Brentford have only themselves to blame, having been unable to convert their massive dominance of possession into many clearcut chances. If Dango Ouattara's early breakaway goal had not been ruled out for a very marginal offside (another one that appeared to have been decided - not very convincingly - on where the 'lines' were drawn on the attacker's and defender's arms, rather than their feet or torsos...), things might have been different. I also wonder if they were at a disadvantage having to face a side playing in their usual strip,... and having to suffer a change strip in a sort of muddy monkey-shit-brown that blended into pitch and crowd, making them almost invisible to each other. The game was also marred by Anthony Taylor giving two penalties for very, very minor bits of wrestling-at-set-pieces (at least he balanced it up by awarding one to each side; and one wonders if there was a sort of 'cascade effect' at play here: he'd ignored a much more substantial incident of a similar type earlier in the first half, which may have prejudiced him towards being a little more amenable in considering Brentford's second appeal; but then perhaps realising what a soft, dubious call that had been, he didn't feel able to turn down a very similar shout from the home side.... and on all three, VAR seemingly just sat on its hands, didn't want to say anything; to my mind, the contact in all three instances was fairly minimal, indecisve, and the final falling-to-the-ground was either a tripping-over-their-own-feet or a deliberate dive). And this week's surprise penalty taker, Kevin Schade, completely flubbed his effort for Brentford, giving Sunderland keeper Roefs a huge boost to his FPL points (though I don't suppose very many people even own him, and even fewer will have started him).

Spurs, like Chelsea, really seem to struggle for any consistency. After last week's impressive dismantling of Manchester City, they completely failed to show up against Bournemouth (until a late rally in the last 25 minutes or so). They really didn't look like the home side, as Bournemouth completely dominated, and made chance after chance; the visitors deserved to win by a lot more than just the one goal, but Vicario pulled off a few sharp saves. There was one minor controversy when Kudus kicked Senesi in the penalty area, but they were both stretching their feet towards a high ball, and the contact didn't look very substantial.

Wolves, even without the injured Strand Larsen, looked much improved over their feeble performances in the opening two weeks, and made a good fight of it - but they were unfortunate to come up against an Everton side in such ebullient form. In FPL-land, it's now becoming difficult to decide who you want from the Everton midfield: Ndiaye, Grealish, or Dewsbury-Hall (maybe more than one of them...)? Mercifully, this was the only Saturday game completely free of any controversy or cock-up in the refereeing.

Well, at least until the late kick-off between Leeds and Newcastle, which was such an astonishingly dull and dour encounter that it really failed to produce any memorable incidents at all. Eddie Howe, bizarrely, opted to switch to five-at-the-back (perhaps because he didn't have enough forward players available? Elanga and Barnes were both strangely omitted.....).

Pep made five changes to last week's City line-up, but it didn't make them any better. Although there wasn't much in it in a stodgy first-half, Brighton brought much more energy to the second-half, and increasingly got on top of the fixture - their win ultimately well deserved: Minteh and Mitoma had decent efforts, and Trafford did well to claw away a hooked close-range effort from Van Hecke in the second-half. They were, in fact, unlucky not to have gone in front in the first-half, when a lone breakaway by Diego Gomez was chalked off for a very soft foul on Khusanov (he put his hands briefly on the defender's shoulder, which he should not have done; but it was brief, had no force in it, was no sort of 'pull'; Khusanov, in front at that point, but realising he was going to be done for pace, just threw himself on the floor when he felt the contact - I don't like to see those given). Astoundingly, Erling Haaland received the 3 bonus points in this game. With City not even finishing as the winning side, two other - 'decisive' - goals in the game, three assists, and Rodri and Minteh(!!) earning 'defensive points', it was scarcely credible that the lanky Viking deserved even 1 bonus point, let alone the maximum. As I say so often, BPS is broken. But even with that deeply flawed system of calculation, it is impossible to see how Haaland ended up anywhere near the top of the ranking in this game. I really worry that FPL is just manipulating the bonus points awards to pander to the largest user constituencies - nearly a third of teams include Haaland at the moment. Many of them had made him captain; so, a huge number of managers this week got a completely unearned, undeserved boost of 2-6 points! Ain't no justice.

The biggest 'upset' of the weekend occurred at Nottingham Forest's City Ground. The home side were comfortably in control in the first-half, but were well off their best, struggling to create many chances. West Ham started coming at them more in the second-half, and looked a lot more dangerous after the introduction of the lively Callum Wilson. But West Ham's three very late goals, while they weren't against the run of play in that phase of the game, weren't at all expected or deserved on the overall balance of play; a fairly gentle shot from the edge of the area by Bowen, that the usually immaculate Sels seemed to misjudge, was slow getting across to; a very soft penalty award (yes, Sangare flicked his leg out, but there was barely any contact, Summerville just dived), and then a last-gasp breakaway by Diouf down the left-flank. The many, many FPL managers who had banked on a 'safe' clean sheet from Forest keeper or defenders (or perhaps a goal from Wood or Ndoye) were sorely disappointed; those who had recently given up hope on West Ham and sold Bowen or Paqueta were vexed. But the biggest frustration of the game was that the all-action Elliot Anderson (deservedly getting an England call-up this week) allegedly came up one 'contribution' short of earning the new 'defensive points' for the third successive gameweek. I don't think so. We really need some explication from FPL as to how these 'defensive contributions' are being defined and counted.

Liverpool v Arsenal was, predictably enough, a cagey tactical encounter, with both defences in the ascendance. Arsenal were relying desperately on their set-piece routines, but the Liverpool back-line was not bothered by these shenanigans. Liverpool got on top in the second half; they still weren't able to create many chances, but getting in front through Szoboszlai's stunning free-kick seemed well-deserved on the balance of play. (Raya looked perhaps very slightly slow to get across to it, taking an extra step to adjust his position before jumping; and he'd been lucky earlier not to concede a penalty in bundling over Gakpo, who turned out to have been offside when reacting to Wirtz's parried shot.) Eze and Odegaard didn't appear until the last 20 minutes, and failed to have any impact. The game was too uneventful to generate any refereeing controversies. The main point of interest for FPL was another slew of muscle injuries: Saliba withdrawing after just a few minutes, Konate late in the second half, and, apparently, Timber also in trouble at the end of the game.

While Manchester United's and West Ham's penalties were merely dubious, Villa goalkeeper Bizot's 'foul' on Kamada to give Palace their opener from the spot was plainly illusory; the keeper shouldn't have risked making a trip with his arms like that, but the Palace man plainly skipped over him without any contact being made - why did VAR not intervene on this??  Just crazy!  Injustices like this always rankle; but at least this one couldn't be said to have had any real impact on the ultimate course of the game, since Villa just didn't show up at all (only managing a couple of isolated efforts on goal in the entire match, and, really, barely getting a meaningful kick of the ball), allowing their visitors to cruise to a comfortable, unopposed win. Yet another muscle injury too, with Adam Wharton limping off in this one (not widely owned in FPL, but a further warning to us about how elevated is the incidence of such problems early in the season).

The tallying of 'defensive contributions' for potential extra points this year will continue to add to the sense of confusion and injustice we almost invariably feel about the bonus point allocations. And I'm still concerned about the often awkwardly long delays in deciding offside calls, and an ongoing general lack of transparency about how VAR is operating. There were unexpectedly poor performances this week from Spurs, Newcastle, Forest, Brentford, Arsenal, and Chelsea - though Chelsea got away with it (I wouldn't count the poor performances from City and United and Villa as 'unexpected'!). And the 'Team of the Week' is particularly left-field this time, with only 3 or 4 players that anybody would have owned. With a slew of injuries, massive VAR delays and endless periods of added-on time and a few very late goals, some ridiculously tight offside calls, yet another badly missed penalty, at least a couple of slightly dodgy penalty awards and numerous other controversial (though mostly correct) refereeing decisions, and the utterly mystifying award of maximum bonus points to Haaland, I think it has to be at least an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter' this week.

Dilemmas of the Week - Gameweek 3 (25/26)

 

Well, it didn't take long for us to start getting a mini-flood of irksome injuries, to add to all the other early season uncertainties of flakey form, less-than-100% fitness, and erratic team selection.

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 3 of the new season?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

The biggest blow in FPL last week was highest-owned player Cole Palmer dropping out minutes before the kick-off after feeling soreness in his groin during the warm-up (a problem that he'd apparently been troubled by all week, and may have inhibited his performance in the opening gameweek). Apparently, it's 'not too serious', but we haven't heard any further details during the week. It seems unlikely he'll be risked this weekend, although he might still appear on the bench; and there appears to be no danger that he won't be back for Gameweek 4 after the international break - so, we ought to be able to carry him on our benches for one week.

Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka also had to come off in last week's match, just either side of half-time, with a shoulder injury and a hamstring strain respectively. Again, neither said to be too serious: Odegaard might be available this weekend, but Saka will probably have to rest up until mid- or late-September. (Though not that many people had either of them yet anyway, as Arsenal have a rather tough early fixture-run this year.)  There hasn't been any news on Ben White's injury status either; but again, his problem was not announced to be anything significant, so there must be some chance that he will reappear again for the Liverpool game; FPL managers who've rushed in for Jurrien Timber on the back of his best-of-the-week haul out of nowhere last weekend, may be dismayed to find that he's currently only 2nd choice, behind White, at right-back, and 2nd choice, behind Calafiori, at left-back....

Georginho Rutter is still a doubt for Brighton too (though I don't suppose many will fancy starting any of their players against City; although that, I think, might be a mistake - they are the sort of side that can cause a few upsets, and City's defence is still looking rocky).

Fulham's Harry Wilson is likely to be out, after picking up a painful knock on the foot in the League Cup in midweek. (This might mean a first start for Emile Smith Rowe, although he still looks a long way off full fitness; maybe Adama Traore will get the nod instead? We probably don't fancy any of their players this week for a West London derby, though....)

Alexis Macallister has been back in training this week, after missing last week's game against Newcastle with a knock - should be OK to start.

Rayan Ait-Nouri limped off in the first half against Spurs last week with an apparent hamstring problem, but has apparently been deemed fit enough to be called up for the Moroccan national squad - so, might be able to make an appearance at Brighton this weekend?

Newcastle were in the wars in their epic Monday night game: in addition to Gordon's sending off, they suffered injuries to Fabian Schar (knock to the head), Sandro Tonali (shoulder), and Joelinton (thigh strain - again). Schar, surprisingly, seems to have passed 'concussion protocols' and is looking likely to start; Tonali is a 50/50 (nothing serious, but still in quite a lot of discomfort); Joelinton will probably be missing for at least a month (which will probably create an opening for new signing Jacob Ramsey to get a start).

Sunderland's Dan Ballard, whose ownership had surged up to 7% after his improbably huge haul in Gameweek 1, picked up a groin strain in the League Cup this week, and looks set to be out for a little while.

Jorgen Strand Larsen is now apparently a doubtful starter for Wolves, because of a sore Achilles - but one wonders if that is just cover for an ongoing transfer discussion....

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Bournemouth right-back Julian Araujo is suspended for one game after picking up 2 yellow cards in the League Cup tie on Wednesday.

And Anthony Gordon is beginning a three-game ban for what was deemed a 'serious foul play' challenge on Virgil Van Dijk in Monday night's game.

Alexander Isak and Yoane Wissa are still excluded from consideration at their current clubs, because of anticipated imminent transfer moves.

Ebere Eze would probably not have been fancied to start immediately for Arsenal on Sunday, having only had a week to train with his new teammates. The injuries to Odegaard and Saka perhaps make it more probable that he will be rushed into service straight away, but.... Arteta is such a detail-oriented coach that I doubt he will feel satisfied that Eze has sufficiently internalised his ideas by this weekend (and perhaps not even after the international break...!); and for such a huge fixture, an early potential 'title decider' at Anfield, I very much doubt if he'll get more than minutes off the bench.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

The whole Crystal Palace team, having come through another tough preliminary tie in the Europa Conference League on Thursday night, are likely to be a bit leggy for their visit to Villa on Sunday evening - and no doubt reeling from the loss of their most creative player (plus, they still have rumours of an imminent move away for their captain and defensive lynchpin, Marc Guehi, hanging over them). So, although, on recent form, they look like they should comfortably have the beating of floundering Villa, I wouldn't be betting on any of their players this weekend.

Although Burnley look like they should be a fairly easy opponent for Manchester United at Old Trafford today, the humiliation of their League Cup defeat (where they just didn't put up much of a fight for most of the game, allowing themselves to be comprehensively outplayed by a much better organised and more committed fourth-tier opponent), and the intensified speculation over Amorim's possible imminent removal (I think he has to go, as soon as possible; but it might be difficult to find a replacement), mean that it's suddenly a bit of a risky punt even to stick with United players you may already have (Cunha or Mbeumo, and - less justifiably - Bruno Fernandes, have been very popular picks so far), let alone bring in any new ones for this fixture. Burnley, in fact, are probably now favourites to at least claim a draw... and might be able to sneak a win.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, it's encouraging - in the short-term, at least - that Joao Pedro seems to thrive in the No. 10 role even more than as an outright forward. And Jack Grealish made a very encouraging start for Everton. Iliman Ndiaye, Dan Ndoye, and Marcus Tavernier looked very good for a second successive game, and should also be competing for attention as fifth-seat midfielders.

Arsenal fans are getting terribly excited about big returns from Timber and Calafiori (calm down - it was only against Leeds!); but neither of them can yet be regarded as nailed starters, and the Gunners face probably their toughest fixture-run of the whole season over the next four games. Similarly, I wouldn't yet be too optimistic about the prospects for Gyokeres (nice that he's got off the mark; but it was only against Leeds!), or Eze (how often will he start, or how prominent a creative force will he be even if he does start regularly - when Saka and Odegaard are also playing?).

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Counting down

 

The Summer Transfer Window drags on just that little bit longer this year. It's closing at 7pm on Monday 1st September, UK time - rather than the more traditional midnight on the 31st August (apparently because the 31st is a Sunday?). So, we have just about 75 more hours of suffering to endure.....

It seems to have been a particularly busy - and particularly acrimonious - spell of transfer activity this year, with 99 deals already concluded (according to Fantasy Football Scout's roundup), and Stuttgart striker Nick Woltemade today apparently set to become the 100th, when his move to Newcastle is confirmed. (Who?? Yeah, not the biggest blip on the 'Top European Forwards' Radar....)

Now, if that Woltemade signing goes through, the door could be open for Isak to finally complete his contentious move to Liverpool. (I really hope that doesn't go ahead. They're only buying him because he's available, and they can afford him, and he seems like too good an opportunity to pass up; but they don't need him - at the moment, I think they'd be better off without him...)  And if that happens, the thus-far brilliant Ekitike might get dropped to make room for him; and indeed, Gakpo might find himself suddenly minutes-sharing too. So, this one superficially unexciting piece of transfer activity could have massive repercussions for FPL.

Likewise, two more of last year's highest-scoring forwards in FPL, Watkins and Wissa, are still looking for a move, which might come to pass over the final few days of the window. And if that should happen, and they move to another Premier League club rather than leaving the country, that might greatly enhance their perceived value in FPL. But it might also gravely undermine the value of all of their former teammates at the clubs they've left without a top striker,.... unless they can obtain a top replacement at the last minute. Jorgen Strand Larsen might also become a much more attractive FPL property if he gets a move to a better club (and Wolves might be even deeper in the toilet...). And Xavi Simons's move to Spurs might actually become one of the most influential acquisitions of the window.  So much could still surprise and confound us over the next few days.

Perhaps we'll have a quiet weekend, and Woltemade will be the last deal concluded. But, typically, there's a huge last-minute rush in the final few hours of a window. With the best part of a whole extra day available this year, the possibilities for further business are enormous.

I wouldn't be going anywhere near a Wildcard until all the dust has settled from this frenzy of club-swapping and squad-strengthening. Indeed, I wouldn't want to be going anywhere near one until at least the end of September, by which time we'll have had a few weeks to observe new club line-ups in action, and form starting to develop...  At present, we really don't have much idea at all what the new season is going to look like. And any changes we make to our FPL teams now are likely to be rendered irrelevant within the next month or so.

A little bit of Zen (57)

"Congratulate yourself when you have done something strange or extravagant, and broken the monotony of a decorous world."

Ralph Waldo Emerson

I've always liked to challenge stuffy conventions and unexamined 'truths', to do things that are bold and unsettling and out of the ordinary. Emerson, it seems, was a man after my own heart. (There aren't too many.....)

That SAME OLD QUESTION again....

"Are Haaland and Salah worth it this year?"

Short answer: NO.  (But....)

'Super-premium' players are almost never 'worth it': the opportunity cost of going without so many other better players in almost every position in your squad will massively outweigh any points-advantage they might offer (4 times out of 5, anyway). 

There are certain guideline criteria I suggest in that earlier post on this issue which might justify their inclusion. But I don't think these criteria (the crucial last two of them, at any rate) are clearly going to be met with either of the BIG TWO this season.

Will they rack up an absolutely massive season total??  Probably not - not anywhere near the level of their previous best years, anyway. Liverpool and City are both in a 'rebuilding' phase, which makes their overall team performance much more suspect (City, in fact, were really poor for most of last season - and haven't yet shown any sign of turning that around). Their star men are having to adapt to a lot of new personnel around them, with probably a very radically different playing style arising from that as well; and, more particularly, they will probably face more competition in sharing the club's pool of potential goals than in many previous years, with new players like Ekitike and Wirtz and Frimpong (and maybe Isak...?) very likely to cut into Salah's total, and Marmoush and Cherki probably claiming at least a few chances that might previously have fallen to Haaland. I think both of these superstars will still have very decent seasons - probably breaking 200 points, and maybe even getting up towards 250. But is that enough to justify a price tag of 14.0 or 14.5 million? Probably not!  [And that, I think, is at the optimistic rather than the pessimistic end of the range for projections of their performance this season. Salah, of course, is likely to lose a month or so mid-season due to his participation in the African Cup of Nations, and we should adjust our expectations of his season-total accordingly (although we should always be concerned rather with current form, rather than year-long achievement). And both Liverpool and City are giving signs that they're likely to struggle a little this season, at least against better opposition - and returns from all of their players will probably be slightly restricted by this. There is a good chance that Haaland and Salah - even without a major upset like a significant injury or a prolonged dip in output - will only return something like 170-190 points this season.]

Will they be the top-returner in their position category, by a big margin??  Again, probably not. They might again be the top points-returners, but, as I pointed out a few days ago, that, on its own, doesn't matter; it's the runs of returns over short stretches of the season, and the overall returns from the full starting eleven rather than the best individuals that decide your outcomes in FPL. Palmer, Saka, and Gakpo could run Salah pretty close, maybe even do a little better; and Cunha, Mbeumo, Ndiaye, Kudus, Wirtz, Ndoye, Hudson-Odoi, Elanga, Grealish, Ismaila Sarr, Enzo Fernandez and a few others also look like they could have very big seasons. Haaland has been given stiff competition by Isak and Watkins in the last couple of seasons, and they might prove even better prospects this year (especially if they move to stronger teams?); Joao Pedro and Richarlison have started the season very strongly, with suddenly rejuvenated teams who now look likely to be able to challenge at the top of the table; Wissa and Wood will be hoping to build on their outstanding form of last season; and the new arrivals in the league, Ekitike and Sesko and Gyokeres, look to have a lot of potential too. I'm not saying any of these will beat Haaland; but I don't think he'll open up much of a gap over the best of them.

Despite - probably - failing these key 'rule-of-thumb' tests, Haaland and Salah might still be justifiable picks as long as they're getting somewhere close (they might; though I'm not super-confident in them this time...),... IF the overall budget dynamics this year make them still affordable.

The key factors that determine this 'affordability' are how many other premium players there are (that you might covet as well as, or instead of the BIG TWO), and how much really good value there is to be found at the lower-end of the price spectrum.

On the first point, the situation looks rather promising: there are almost no other premium-priced players this season - the smallest number there has been for many years, I think. With the departures of Son and Luis Diaz in pre-season, we're left with only Palmer and Saka priced above 10 million in midfield, only Bruno Fernandes at 9.0 (who really should not be in contention at all this year, at any price), only Marmoush and Wirtz at 8.5, and only Cunha, Mbeumo, Foden, and Odegaard at 8.0. Among the forwards, only Isak is priced above 10 million (and not by much: I'd expected he'd start this season at least at 11.0 or 11.5!!), and only Watkins and Gyokeres are at 9.0.

But the cheap squad-filler end of the equation isn't nearly so favourable: among the forwards, only Strand Larsen and Thiago look like reasonably viable picks at the bottom end of the price spectrum (if Strand Larsen's rumoured move to Newcastle comes off this week, he could suddenly become one of the most popular picks in FPL!), and only perhaps Beto, Muniz, and Osula possible ultra-cheap bench-fillers (though they'd be low-value, very risky picks, as they don't currently look like being regular starters). Amongst the cheaper midfielders, only Reijnders, Ndoye, and Tavernier have so far stood out - and those might have been flash-in-the-pan performances. So far, we haven't seen many really compelling possibilities even at 6.5 (Rice and Enzo, Ndiaye and Grealish?), let alone much cheaper. Finding a player like Palmer two years ago, someone who might become the top points-producer of the season from a starting price of only 5 or 6 million, is a real 'Black Swan' event.....

Moreover, quite a few of the better budget midfielders, and most of the strongest defenders seem to have been priced 0.5 million higher this year, presumably to reflect their greater overall points-potential because of the newly-introduced 'defensive points'. This has a surprisingly big impact on the overall budget dynamics, and really puts a squeeze on our ability to afford the most expensive players (effectively, it means an extra 1.5-2.5 million of our budget is being spent 'invisibly').

If Haaland or Salah hit a run of form where they seem to be averaging 7 or 8 points a game for a while, they will be worth considering. But actually, for players of their price, even that isn't particularly outstanding - maybe still not quite enough to justify their selection, most of the time. Last year, Salah managed to average 9 points-per-game over the entire season; and both of them have often enjoyed spells of averaging 10 points or more per game. This year, I just don't think they'll do that again. While lots of other players will also probably hit that desirable threshold of bringing in 7 or 8 ppg, at least for a short spell.

But, of course, the dynamics of squad selection are always very fluid, dependent on multiple interacting factors. Salah and Haaland, despite not playing conspicuously well, have both produced pretty good points across the opening two games. While most of their more expensive rivals are currently out of contention: Isak is unavailable for selection while transfer discussions drag on, Watkins may be distracted by thoughts of a move and has looked out-of-sorts, Palmer and Saka and Odegaard just got injured, Eze just moved clubs and might not get an immediate start, Cunha and Mbeumo and Wirtz haven't found their form at their new clubs yet....

As it happens, you probably can afford Salah or Haaland at the moment. But I don't think you should splash the cash for both of them!  And neither of them should be regarded as a long-term hold this season.

For many FPL managers, alas, this question is treated as above rational discussion. These two players have developed a cult-like following of fanatics - who insist that they must always be a must-have pick, regardless of any considerations of form or overall budget. This, of course, is a very damaging delusion.

LOCKED OUT??!!

 

The FPL website has bugged the crap out of me for years, and I've complained a number of times about how glitchy it can sometimes get - how, for example, it's dangerous to leave team selection until too close before the weekly deadline because the site is quite prone to crashing altogether when traffic volumes peak.

This year, I gather (from perusing various online forums about the game), the smartphone app version of the game has proven particularly unstable and frustrating in the opening weeks, forcing many people to have to turn to the web version instead in order to get their weekly housekeeping taken care of. I only ever have the web version at my disposal, as I am an avowed smartphone refusenik.

And I've been especially vexed by the fact that there no longer seems to be any option to 'stay logged in' for any extended period; and, indeed, I was often being logged out every hour or so. Also, when I did log in, my password was otten somehow 'forgotten' by the system, and I was having to go through the tiresome rigmarole of reopening my account with a 'recovery code' sent to my email.... sometimes multiple times in a day.

Annoying as this was, I was getting kind of used to it. 

But then, our FPL Overlords escalated to the next level of vexatiousness, and stopped sending me the recovery code.

Now, I thought at first that the recovery code emails had just gone astray somehow, or been delayed for a little while. I checked in my spam folder a few times; I chccked my Inbox every hour to see if the codes had yet shown up; I requested a code to be re-sent several times. But this was Friday evening, just before the Gameweek 2 deadline, so things were getting rather critical. And in my timezone, the deadline is in the wee small hours of the morning; I really didn't fancy staying up all night for what was seeming increasingly likely to be a vain pursuit of regaining access to the account in time to update my team. So - I gave up on it. No team tweaks for me this week!!

However, I hadn't quite yet given up hope that this noisome glitch would eventually resolve itself, and my account be restored to me.

But over the weekend, the bastards revealed that they still had one further level of escalation: yep, they suddenly stopped recognising that there was a Premier League/FPL account 'associated with' my email address, and wouldn't any longer even give me the option to request 'recovery codes' that they wouldn't actually send.

Well, except that they didn't quite expunge my former account from their consciousness... If that email address was now 'unknown' to them, I should have been able to use it to open a new account, shouldn't I? But, oh NO - they weren't having that, either.

Now, if I deluged them with trenchantly worded emails about this business, perhaps they would relent and magic my old account back into existence. Maybe it would reappear naturally, if I just waited long enough - patiently trying to log back in every day, for a week or several.....  And, sure, I have several other email addresses I could have tried to use to create a new account (albeit that I would have missed the first two gameweeks, so any whole-season goals or objectives I might set for myself would already be out of the window).

But you know what? I just couldn't be bothered. I took this as a sign from Fate that I wasn't meant to take part this year.

Heck, maybe I'm used to it - since I stopped taking part a little over half-way through last year as well (in protest at the noxious inanity of the dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip).

And I have often joked - with friends, and in various online forums I frequent - that I really enjoy thinking about the game more than playing it, and actually having a team of my own in competition isn't that compelling an element of my interest in FPL.

Maybe I'll return to it next year. Maybe I won't. (It might depend on how many more unnecessary changes the game's overlords try to foist on us next year!)

But what I chiefly love about the game is the added incentive it gives me to follow the Premier League more attentively - and the different perspective it gives me in my watching of the football every week. That, I believe, can continue.

And I have also come to enjoy reflecting on my experiences, insights, and opinions relating to the game of Fantasy Premier League, and to find satisfaction in sharing some of them with other enthusiasts - on platforms like this blog. That will certainly continue.

Cruel Fate has kicked me out of the game. But, in the words of Bernie Taupin, "I'm still standing...."

Players' season totals really DON'T MATTER

I already touched on this point quite extensively a couple of weeks back in this post on the price steps that are applicable for categorising FPL player options in different positions. However, it's such an important topic, I felt I should say a little more on it.

The problem here is that many FPL managers fall in thrall to the silly, dangerous delusion that ALL YOU HAVE TO DO in the game is identify the players who are going to get the highest totals for the season. (With the usual corollary that the players likeliest to do this are those who got the highest totals last season - which is a reasonable but not infallible guide to form.)

It seems paradoxical, unfathomable to many - but this is just NOT TRUE (not generally so, anyway; there will always be some exceptions, which I'll outline below).

The thing is, you really need to be pulling in around 200 points or so from every starting slot in your squad over the season, if you are to have a chance of finishing near the top of the rankings. In fact, since you're bound to come up short of that - perhaps well short - for many of the slots (defenders and goalkeepers just don't produce points at anything like the levels of the best midifelders and forwards), you really need to be aiming for more like 250+ points from at least a few of your highest-returning slots.

[It's very difficult, in practice, to get anything like 'optimal' returns from your captaincy picks throughout a season. But, even if we grant that you can match or slightly better the return from your top squad slot with your armband choices (Note: this might not be - probably won't be - a single player, held in the team all season.), and even if you could get a fairly good lift from all of your 'chips' (although we have double the usual number of chips this season, it's pretty unlikely they'll be collectively worth a lift of anything like an extra 100 points over the season), and even if you can get, say, 4 squad slots returning something close to 250 (whereas 2 or 3 hitting that level would be remarkable...), and even if you could hit that ideal of a 200-point average across the whole of the rest of your starting eleven (which would entail you having a very strong bench as well, since you're going to have to be drawing on those guys fairly often to fill out the main line-up),..... you'd still probably come up 50-100 points short of last year's global champion. That's how big of an ASK it is!!  But that's what we all have to aim for.....]

And 250 points is an enormous season-total for an individual player. Usually, there are only 1 or 2 players who manage that in a season; but quite often, there are none. There are only ever a handful who manage to get over 200 points each year - and usually only a little over that threshold; and again, it's possible that sometimes no-one will even crack that seemingly more modest milestone.

So, you can't usually rely on any player - even your Mo Salah, Thierry Henry, Wayne Rooney, Erling Haaland types - to deliver you the kind of points you need from your best positions in the eleven. Even the very best players don't always reach that level; occasionally, they might come up a long way short.

Even when the top players have a really outstanding season, they are very, very rarely the highest-returning player across every shorter run of games within the season. There was almost always a player who, across 4 or 5 or 6 games, was delivering more points than them once or twice over the season. That was even true of Salah in his record-breaking season last year; his returns tailed off in the latter part of the year, and there were spells when it would have been profitable to drop him for someone else. [Of course, it can seem like an unacceptable risk to swap out one of these top-performing players. As I discussed in this post, their ability to deliver some exceptionally high gameweek hauls, and their overall consistency - with few if any long runs of 'blanks' - often makes them worth holding on to for an extended period of time, and occasionally, perhaps, even the whole season. Furthermore, the fact that they're usually very high-priced players makes it much more difficult to swap them in and out of a squad at will; so, once you have them, you may feel somewhat stuck - obliged to persist with them, come what may. But that will often be a mistake: even the best players almost always hit runs of less impressive form,... while a cheaper rival is suddenly banging in goals every week. You must not let yourself become bewitched by the glamorous reputation of a top performer; if they're not the top performer right now, you need to be ready to let them go.]

You can't expect to be able to hang on to any player for the whole season. You need to be trying to wring more points out of every slot in your line-up than any single player can produce. In order to achieve that, you have to seek to constantly rotate in the best current players over a short run of games.

As I explained in the post I mentioned at the top here, previous season totals are a useful guide to likely performance in the current season. But what you're really interested in is not the actual season total, but the projection of a theoretical season total from recent form - when the player you're looking at has been getting a regular run of starts and has been playing well. You will often find that that number is well over 250 points (if he's been averaging around 7 points per game in his last 3 or 4 starts) Their actual season-total won't be anywhere near that, 99 times out of a hundred; they'll get injured, get dropped, or just suffer a bit of a drought at some point - their run of high returns will come to an end sooner or later. But you need to try to have them in your side when their pro rata returns are up in that golden zone. 

If you become fixated on your Haalands and your Salahs, you risk missing out on a lot of players who could actually give you more points than them - at least for a part of the season.

In addition to this problem that even an exceptional player like Haaland or Salah will rarely guarantee you a big enough points total to make them an attractive season-long hold, there is also the - again, often perversely unacknowledged or stubbornly denied - fact that.... the game is about getting the best returns collectively from your starting eleven (backed up, on occasion, by your bench), not just from a handful of top-performing players.

Even if Haaland and Salah do outscore the next best option in their positions by a massive 50 or 80 points over the season,.... you can almost certainly more than make up that margin by being able to afford substantial upgrades in almost every other starting position with the money you save by not having them.

Players like these can be worth having, at least for certain spells of certain seasons; but they are almost never - only in the most exceptional of circumstances - worth having for the entire season.

If you think you MUST have players like these just because they seem likely to be the season's top-returning picks - you are committing a grave error. There will be certainly be other (cheaper!) players who outscore them in short spells during the season. And there will certainly be a massive opportunity cost in going without so many other top players in order to afford them.  (I may have a little more to say about this in a few days....)

Luck-o-Meter - 25-26 Gameweek 2

 

We got off to the worst possible start this week, with Cole Palmer, the most owned player in the game (slightly above Salah and Joao Pedro at 55%), being a last-minute omission, after feeling discomfort in his groin during the warm-up. If anything, Chelsea seemed to benefit from the enforced change - which allowed Joao Pedro a freer role in the No. 10 space, while the combative Delap came into the side to take on the central striker's role of giving the West Ham defence a rough ride. Things nearly went amiss early on, though, with a Paqueta drive from 20-odd yards somehow beating Sanchez (the keeper had a clear view of it all the way, and wasn't far from the ball, but seemed to completely misread the flight of it); and then a little later, Fullkrug appeared to have given the home side the lead for a second time - but his effort was ultimately ruled out for a very tight offside in the build-up (which again seemed to take an inordinately long time for VAR to rule on). But after those two early scares, Chelsea took control and powered through to a comfortable win; they could, in fact, have scored more than the 5 they eventually notched (Enzo Fernandez, in particular, spurned a fantastic chance to nab what would have been his second and Chelsea's fourth early in the second half). Graham Potter brought on Callum Wilson for Fullkrug at half-time; not clear if this was for tactical or fitness reasons, but either way, it's not likely to endear him to the player - or perhaps to the fans, who were rushing for the exits very early on, as their team collapsed for the second week running. The unfortunate Potter is now a hot favourite to become the first managerial sacking of the new season. (William Hill are currently quoting 9/4 on that - which is well worth having!)

Manchester City, still worryingly toothless in the midfield duels, were fairly comprehensively outplayed by Thomas Frank's well-organised Spurs (the home side might have had nearly two-thirds of the possession, but they were unable to do very much with it). No major controversies here, although Spurs were a bit hard done-by to have two bad fouls on Porro and Kudus, on the very edge of the opposition penalty area, ignored by the referee within a minute or so of each other: a free-kick in a dangerous position, and an early yellow card for goalkeeper Trafford, might have had a significant impact in the game. It was also a bit mystifying as to how the ref came to add on a further 5 or 6 minutes at the end of the first half, over and above the 7 minutes that had already been calculated. And a fair chunk of that additional time was occasioned by a painfully protracted VAR delay in adjudicating Spurs's first goal (if the 'semi-automated' decision technology was in use for determining offsides, it was not shared on live television; and it was a terrible initial call by the linesman - Richarlison was comfortably onside, and it should really not have taken more than a few seconds to confirm that fact). Richarlison owners are probably a little aggrieved that he was denied a second assist, when Trafford pushed the ball away from his feet - straight to a grateful Palhinha; if the City keeper had parried a shot to another attacker, the assist would have been awarded - I can't see how or why this should be any different. There was yet another FPL injury blow in this one, with 23%-owned Ait-Nouri limping off in the first half with a sprained ankle. (Hopefully not too serious; but one wonders why anyone would want City defenders at the moment....)

Wolves were looking occasionally dangerous, and were still in the game at Bournemouth - until Toti's unfortunate sending-off. That again was a slightly questionable decision, very, very soft: a defender chasing a forward on a breakaway shouldn't take a chance by placing a hand on him - but I think that's all Toti did: he placed his hand on Evanilson's back for a fraction of a second, but it didn't look like any kind of a push. I'd like to see those claims denied a bit more often - to discourage forwards from collapsing like a deckchair as soon as they feel the slightest contact on them. It seemed a bit odd, too, in this instance that the referee took such a very long time before reaching for the red card (it wasn't clear if perhaps VAR was whispering in his ear about the incident, and recommending the card).

Brentford are starting to get their act together, after a worryingly shambolic opening performance last week. They looked like they could have won much more comfortably against a lacklustre Aston Villa, whose star men, Rogers and Watkins, were so anonymous here that they may have played themselves out of an England call-up from the watching Thomas Tuchel. There was another very questionable disallowed goal in this one, with Mikkel Damsgaard lashing a volley into the roof of the net, only for the referee to declare that Emi Martinez had been 'impeded' by Nathan Collins; sure, Collins was trying to get in the way, but that's a legitimate aim for a defender in the opposition box; Martinez ran into him, rather than vice a versa - and should have been strong enough not to be unbalanced by the collision anyway (he was desperately play-acting, feigning an injury from the incident to try to gain sympathy - or forgiveness for an error that appeared to have cost his side a second goal).

For the first half hour, Sunderland looked well on top in their 'relegation six-pointer' away to Burnley, but failed to convert a couple of excellent chances - and then faded out of the game.The loss of last week's goal hero Dan Ballard to an early injury may have been a psychological blow that took some of the wind out of their sails. Burnley utlimately looked well worth the win (although their lead was precarious until Jaidon Anthony's late breakaway). The only slight refereeing controversy here was the disallowing of an initial goal for Burnley's Lyle Foster for a very soft 'foul' on a defender.

Arsenal cruised to a predictably comfortable win against promoted Leeds, but injuries to White before the game, and Odegaard and Saka during it, may be a major setback (although, on the other hand, this might present an excellent opportunity to immediately integrate Eze in the starting line-up, which might not otherwise have happened). Timber, coming in for White at right-back, managed to bundle in a couple of scrappy goals from Declan Rice corners, making him probably the highest-returning FPL player of the week (anyone who had him in their side was astonishingly lucky, as he really wasn't fancied to get more than token minutes off the bench). Arsenal fans will also be relieved that new striker Gyokeres is off and running (it may have been particularly valuable to settle his nerves after an horrendous early miss, when Leeds were caught out in building from the back, and the ball broke perfectly to the Swede, on his own 8 yards out with only the keeper to beat,... and he rushed his effort, screwing it miles wide). Max Dowman, 15-year-old wonderkid, also made an impressive debut for the last 25 minutes, fizzing a left-foot volley just wide, and later winning a penalty to let Gyokeres claim the home sids's fifth goal.

Palace v Forest was a tight game, with no standout incidents. The major disappointment for FPL managers in this one was that two of the stoutest defences in the league, facing each other, both narrowly failed to keep a clean sheet. Forest had rather the better of it in the second half, and might have nicked the win late on when new signing Igor Jesus smashed a shot against the post (that would have been assist for centre-back Murillo; I really fancy him to come up with a few attacking contributions over the season). For the second week running, industrious midfield lynchpin Elliot Anderson appeared to be slightly screwed by the 'defensive points' assessment; he was initially credited with 13 eligible 'contributions' in this game, but that was subsequently downgraded to only 11, without explanation, so he again just missed out on the extra points. (We really could do with a proper explanation from FPL of how this new points system is supposed to be working.)

Oh dear, this just wasn't Brighton's day, was it? They looked the better side for long spells, and had plenty of chances to secure an away win at Everton: Mitoma's superb volley in the opening minutes scudding off the top of the crossbar, Welbeck somehow missing an open goal from four yards out, Van Hecke's deflected shot from distance beating Pickford burt crashing against the post, O'Riley fumbling the chance to convert a suicidal back-pass from Tarkowski,...; and then, in the second half, Welbeck fluffing an unjustly awarded penalty to hand Pickford a fairly easy save. It's a bit strange that Welbeck was even taking it, after O'Riley had despatched such a good one last week. But the decision against Dewsbury-Hall was very, very harsh (I'd be OK with a 'strict liability' rule that a penalty automatically results if a contact with the arm deflects a goal-bound shot; but I don't think that is the case at the moment. If a shot is fired at a defender from close range, and he's turning away from it, trying to keep his hands close to his chest.... under the current framing of the rule, that shouldn't be a penalty.) Poor Fabian Hurzeler must have been tearing his hair out. A good first win for Everton at their new stadium, with excellent performances from Grealish and Ndiaye - but they certainly rode their luck a bit.

Fulham again redeemed themselves through their substitutions (though it makes you wonder if some of these players should be starting....). United, apart from a few lively moments from Cunha, really showed nothing - and I suspect the odds on Amorim getting the chop will soon be shortening; their expensive summer signings haven't really done anything to rectify the problems the team had last year, and another bottom-half finish is looking dangerously likely. Another really awful VAR decision here, with the backroom team, after long deliberation, deciding to direct the unfortunate Chris Kavanagh (who's now made two of the worst penalty awards imaginable within the space of six days!) to take a second look at some grappling in the box at a corner. Yes, it did look rather as if the burly Calvin Bassey had executed a neat judo throw on the much more slight Mason Mount - but Mount had been holding him, indeed still had a handful of his shirt even after he'd hit the floor (and another United player next to him was clearly guilty of a blatant holding offence too); and he really just tripped over, as Bassey violently shifted his weight to unbalance him - nowhere near a penalty! Bassey himself was whingeing that United's goal should have been ruled out for a foul on him, but I was less in sympathy there: Yoro placed hands on his back, but there appeared to be absolutely no force in the 'push' at all - the defender just felt contact, and immediately sat down to try to get the foul. The further FPL wrinkle in that opening goal was that it was orginally awarded to Yoro, and the assist thus was given to Mbeumo's corner - though the United defender's weak header was clearly miles off target, and had fotuitously deflected into the goal off Muniz's back. The incident was correctly re-classified as an 'own goal' some time after the end of the game; but it's a bit rough on Mbeumo or Yoro owners (OK, Mbeumo owners - why would anyone own Yoro?) to have FPL points awarded to them and then taken away again. Owners of Bruno Fernandes (who is, bafflingly, the 20th most popular player, with an ownership of over 21%) were dismayed to see him waste the unjustly awarded penalty with one of the worst spot-kicks he has ever taken. (Bizarrely, he allowed himself to be put off by an accidental collision with the referee, who he bumped into as he was backing away from the ball during his pre-kick routine. He probably made things worse for himself by getting into an exasperated exchange with Kavanagh about it, and then taking a long time to re-spot the ball and begin his routine all over again. And then.... all the warning signs were there: completely straight-on initial position, still very straight-on approach position after shuffling a couple of paces to his left, very short run-up, not looking where he meant to place the ball.....  Everyone in the stadium knew he was going to miss a second or two before he struck the ball.)

And oh, dear me, the Monday night game turned out to be the game of the weekend, and of the season so far,... and might well be a leading contender for the overall 'Game of the Season'. Liverpool were once again full of quality, but also full of frailty, and were really astonishingly lucky to win this one: Newcastle were well on top for most of the game, even when reduced to 10 men for slightly more than half of it, and only a couple of very much against-the-run-of-play goals (great strikes from just outside the box from Gravenberch and Ekitike, the first of which, a scudding effort that took a bit of a deflection off a defender and just sneaked inside the post - Pope didn't even appear to see) had given them a lead in the first place. And then, after Newcastle had bravely battled back into the match, they got hit on the counter-attack by teenage substitute Rio Ngumoha, with pretty much the last kick of the game - after some 10 minutes of added-on time (why so much??  does Slot have some 'compromat' on PGMOL???). Even the straight-red sending-off of Anthony Gordon just before half-time wasn't entirely straightforward. He certainly came rushing at Van Dijk from a long way off, and clattered him from behind - but it looked as if he was pulling out of the contact at the last moment, had his studs down, foot on the floor, just smacking the big defender's heel (Van Dijk himself didn't seem that perturbed by it afterwards). The referee apparently saw it that way too at first, just issuing a yellow card - but he was eventually told to go and have another look by VAR, and, of course, that invariably prejudices the referee into thinking that he has only one possible decision. Though the challenge was reckless in its closing speed, there didn't seem to be anything too extreme in the contact itself - although the VAR playback (at least as far as I've been able to see on highlights so far) weirdly didn't seem to show the moment of contact at all. There may be a case that Gordon only got his foot down at the last instant (Van Dijk stepped across him slightly as he closed in, and leaned backwards to try to shield the ball; Gordon, rushing in with his foot initially raised, thinking he could reach the ball, put his foot down very late), and, in doing so, may have raked the back of Van Dijk's leg. Some post-match stills appear to show stud-marks on the Dutchman's calf (but they look very 'Photo-shopped'; and there was no glimpse of that on the original TV coverage). In any case, that might be deemed an unfortunate, 'accidental' contact - and certainly a long way short of the kind of potential 'leg-breaker' we usually expect for a straight red card offence. When a foul divides opinion as sharply as this one did, it's probably a bit of a 50/50; and I'm concerned that the video playback didn't seem to offer a definitive view. For the second week running, Liverpool were riding their luck in this game; but, in the EPL as in FPL, you need to be lucky as well as good to win the title!

It's been a relatively unremarkable week on the officiating, with no really outrageosly awful decisions - although quite a few questionable ones: 2 goals ruled out for non-existent, or very, very soft 'fouls', and a perhaps slightly harsh sending-off on Saturday; a couple of dubious-looking penalty awards (both, remarkably, missed!) on Sunday; a further red card on Monday, and a few suspiciously 'generous' rations of added-on time! The large number of injuries to popular picks is also a major contributor to the 'LUCK' equation, with the late dropping-out of Ben White, the last-second exclusion of Cole Palmer, and the in-game injuries to Rayan Ait-Nouri, Martin Odegaard, and Bukayo Saka all rather eye-watering for some FPL managers. The tallying of 'defensive contributions' for potential extra points this year will probably continue to add to the sense of confusion and injustice we almost invariably feel about the bonus point allocations; though there don't appear to have been any such surprising outcomes from that as we saw in the opening gameweek (though Elliot Anderson may have been slightly shafted...). And I'm still concerned about often awkwardly long delays in deciding offside calls, and an ongoing general lack of transparency about how VAR is operating. And heck, the fact that Jurrien Timber (who wasn't expected to start) produced the most massive haul of the week is worth at least one more 'LUCK' point all on its own! Apart from Joao Pedro and Viktor Gyokeres up front, the 'Team of the Week' is yet again composed entirely of players that just about nobody would have owned. So, it's looking like a fairly average 6 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter' this week (though perhaps very nearly a 7!!).

Early Wildcard?

 

"Oh, damn, six of my players were disappointing this week. But, hey, what, there's a way I could replace them ALL??" 

That seems  to be the attitude of many FPL managers - reeling in pain after a low-scoring opening week, they suddenly 'remember' their Wildcard, as if it were a pleasant surprise, like an unexpectedly generous gift left under their pillow by the Tooth Fairy. And they embrace it as their SALVATION.

It would be less funny and painful if it were only the most naive newbies that fell for this misguided foolishness, but actually an awful lot of long-time players give in to this sort of 'buyers' remorse' at the start of the season and blow a Wildcard after 1 or 2 gameweeks. 

The thing is, you don't really know if someone is a 'bad pick' after one game (or even two or three, most of the time), so it's crazy to make judgements that quickly. Almost all of the best and most fancied players had a fairly subdued opening game this year. That often happens. It doesn't mean they won't start getting into their usual groove this week, or next... And last week's top performers - Ekitike, Reijnders, Gibbs-White - aren't yet in 'hot form'; they've had one good game. They could very easily have a stinker this week,... or not start at all.

This game craps on you so often and so hard that even if you do find yourself with a number of absolutely horrible players in your initial squad that you really need to dump as soon as possible, there will almost certainly be a few occasions over the next four months where you have more players than that suddenly dropped/injured/suspended..... 

Wildcard is for emergencies; a bad GW1 is NOT an emergency.

More on the Sisyphus metaphor

My (becoming) regular likening of the FPL experience to the mythical labour of Sisyphus at the start of each season... just reminded me of this little oddity. I hope it will amuse. It is a story that came to me in a dream, a quarter of a century or so ago. (Really)

I am in a desert environment, a hot, dusty plain - almost completely featureless but for a large hill just in front of me.

Half-way up the hill, I see a brawny man grunting and sweating as he struggles to turn over a large, round-ish boulder.  He eventually succeeds in flipping it over once, pauses for just a few moments, and then sets to trying to do it again.  The stone is clearly enormously heavy, and it is painfully hard work: he is endeavouring to move it uphill.

I approach, fascinated.  I'm tempted to offer to help him move this rock, but feel embarrassed as to how to do this. And the man is anyway too intent on his labours to notice me.

At last, he manages to get the boulder to the top of the hill, and then, with one last huge heave, he sends it toppling over the crest and rolling - skipping, bouncing, crashing - down the far slope under its own weight, raising a cloud of dust behind it as it goes, scattering smaller stones left and right, smashing the occasional withered tree or cactus that stands in its path.

The man whoops and hollers with delight as he watches the boulder's descent.  Then he trots down the hill after it.

I catch up to him at the foot of the hill, just as he has once again started toiling to roll it back to the top.

"Say, that does look kind of fun," I say, sheepishly.  "Could I have a try?"

And Sisyphus (for it is he) replies, "Get your own f***ing rock!"

In FPL-land, I feel this should remind us to make our own selections, and keep our teams to ourselves. Each of us has his own boulder to push; and we should not seek, or offer, help in that task.

Yes, everything's a potential metaphor for me.

Dilemmas of the Week - Gameweek 2 (25/26)

 

Not too much to take note of, injury-wise, for the second Gameweek of the new season; but ongoing transfer shenanigans are still causing some upheaval - as well as some unwelcome revelations last week about early-season fitness levels and likely minutes-risks due to early substitutions.

I'll try to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 2 of the new season?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Kai Havertz reportedly has a knee problem that may keep him out for an extended period, but no details seem to have been released as yet. That's probably not much of a deal for FPL, as nobody was expecting him to get many starts after the arrival of Gyokeres.

Jeremie Frimpong sustained a minor hamstring strain in the opening match, and is expected to be out until at least mid-September. (A blow to many, as he had been selected by over 23% of FPL managers prior to the start of the season. Since his natural replacement, Conor Bradley, has been struggling with a muscle injury for some weeks, and apparently still hasn't been seen in training, this could be an opportunity for Joe Gomez to get some starts - and offer cut-price representation in the Liverpool defence. Although that might not be so enticing, as, on the evidence of their opener against Bournemouth, they might not be keeping many clean sheets this season!)

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Ezri Konsa is serving a one-match ban, after getting sent off for a 'denial of a goalscoring' opportunity foul against Newcastle last week.

Alexander Isak and Yoane Wissa are still ruled out by ongoing transfer discussions around them. I am somewhat surprised that Ollie Watkins isn't in the same boat; and Nicolas Jackson is also very unlikely to get any minutes at Chelsea, even off the bench, until his future is resolved one way or the other; I'd be very wary of taking either of them, for fear of them suffering a lack of focus on their game - or perhaps suddenly being removed from squad consideration because of a new offer.

Ebere Eze is set to move to Arsenal. That probably wipes out his FPL value anyway, as he's unlikely to enjoy a regular start there, or to be nearly as impactful as he was for Palace even if he does. But he certainly won't be able to turn out for them this week, and probably not until after the early-September international break.

Exciting new striker arrivals, Benjamin Sesko and Viktor Gyokeres, both still look quite a long way off full-match fitness, and might get abbreviated minutes for another week or two at least.

Amad Diallo, although displaced from any likelihood of an outright attacking role by the arrival of Bryan Mbeumo, had been widely expected to become Amorim's preferred starter at right wing-back. However, Diogo Dalot got the nod there last week, and it seems likely that the two of them may rotate that position - making either of them useless for FPL, until one of them becomes the regular starter.

Crystal Palace played a preliminary game in the Europa Conference League on Thursday evening, and they don't have much squad depth - so, they are likely to be suffering a bit of weariness in their Sunday afternoon game at home against Forest.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

The early withdrawal - just prior to the 60-minute mark - of several popular FPL picks last week was a major cause of concern. We must hope that this was just a one-off aberration, prompted by early-season concerns about inadequate fitness levels. But if top managers start showing this behaviour frequently - and players don't remember the art of walking off slowly if the board with their number goes up around the start of minute 59 (honestly, this is one of the things I most cherish Erling Haaland for!) - we might have to seriously rethink taking a chance on any players likely to be so affected. (I got burned on Milos Kerkez last week.)

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Cody Gakpo and Hugo Ekitike, Morgan Gibbs-White, Richarlison, Tijani Reijnders and Rico Lewis produced the only really outstanding performances in a mostly very drab Gameweek 1. However, the latter three of those look fairly unlikely to enjoy invariable starts at their clubs, Ekitike is playing under the shadow of possible imminent replacement by Isak, and Gibbs-White, even at his very best, isn't really quite enough of a goal-threat to merit FPL consideration. Gakpo, on the other hand, was for me an obviously far preferable choice to Wirtz (and even Salah, who's just far too expensive this year) all along, and I can't fathom why people hadn't picked him in the initial squad.

A fairly short roundup this week - but things will doubtless get muddier and muddier in the weeks to come....

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!