Dilemmas of the Week - GW20

 

At least we're now into the second half of the season, and so past the first threshold for 'totting-up' suspensions: anyone who's still on 4 yellows or less should be safe for a good long time now (although if they reach 10 before GW33, they'll receive a 2-game ban; not sure why there's a cut-off in GW32 - players can just kick lumps out of each other with impunity in the last six weeks of the season??). But the fixture mayhem (4 more matches crammed into the next two weeks; although 1 of them is FA Cup, not EPL) and the toll of the dire weather continue unabated, and so we're still likely to be troubled by a high incidence of injuries and rest rotations over the coming month or so.

In addition, we're now into the winter 'transfer window', so we might imminently see some new players coming into the league (I imagine City and Arsenal, and probably also Manchester United are looking for a couple of key signings). But the loss of existing players, and the potential disruption ensuing from uncertainty and bad feeling around potential moves, could have even more impact than exciting new arrivals. I imagine Cunha is on a lot of people's shopping-lists, some of them outside the Premier League. And while Real are said to be trying to get Alexander-Arnold to pre-sign for a free move in June, I'm pretty certain they'd like to get him immediately to cover for Dani Carvajal's season-long absence; and Liverpool would surely have to take even a token 10 or 15 million for him now, rather than nothing in 5 months' time. We've seen a number of times in recent years that when negotiations around a possible move get tense, managers often prefer to remove the player in question from their squads; that is a big hazard to watch out for over the coming month. There may also be some psychological knock-on effects elsewhere; if Gyokeres really is finally headed to Arsenal, for example, there could be a danger that the likes of Jesus, Trossard, or Havertz could be distracted, disaffected by concerns about what that might mean for their prospects of a regular start.

Oh, also, the League Cup Semi-Finals are coming up this midweek, so there might be a few additional rotations to fear from Liverpool. Arsenal, Newcastle, and Spurs.

So, we have a particularly tricky month ahead, which - quite apart from any other considerations (like all the much more useful, necessary, things you might have to use it for later in the season) - makes this week, or any time this month, a very bad time to play the 2nd Wildcard.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 20?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

The only really big news of the last gameweek was Jarrod Bowen having to go off near the end of the game against Liverpool - with what is apparently a fractured metatarsal, likely to keep him out for at least 3 or 4 weeks. (He's owned by less than 6%, but had seemed poised for a big jump in popularity after a few strong performances recently - as many FPL managers are still desperately casting around for the best 'Saka replacement'.)

Destiny Udogie had to go off in the game against Wolves with a hamstring problem, and looks likely to be out for a little while. With Ben Davies still not fit, Djed Spence, back from suspension. will presumably deputise again at left-back - but Spurs are getting very short of defenders for any position.

Joe Gomez also hobbled off in that game with what looked like quite a serious hamstring injury; Slot has said he expects he could be out for weeks. With no still no timeline announced for the possible return of Ibrahima Konate, Jarrell Quansah finally seems likely to get a little run in the side.

Lukasz Fabianski's concussion the other week must have been quite severe, since he seems to be getting a very slow 'Graduated Return to Play' under the protocols, and is said to be unlikely to start again before mid-month.

Wolves's André had to go off with a heavy knock in the game against Spurs, but might be OK again for this week.

Pervis Estupinan unexpectedly missed the last game with an illness, Murillo with some muscle discomfort felt in the warm-up, and Callum Hudson-Odoi, Fabio Carvalho, Arne Muric, and Southampton's Flynn Downes with training-ground knocks, while Pau Torres and Seamus Coleman had to go off in the games with muscle problems - but all could possibly be available again this week. Evan Ferguson, though, has apparently reinjured his troublesome ankle again in training and could be set to miss a few weeks at least. 

Matheus Cunha also looked likely to miss out this week after retiring at half-time with a muscle problem in the game against Spurs last Sunday - but the FA has very kindly started his ban this week!

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Jurrien Timber, Morgan Rogers, Fabian Schar, Rodrigo Betancur and Southampton's Mateus Fernandes (who??) all reached 5 yellow cards in the last game before the mid-season amnesty threshold, so miss out this week.

Jhon Duran is serving the second of his unfortunate - unjust - 3-game ban.

And Wolves's Matheus Cunha will start his 2-game ban (the second of which will be served in next week's FA Cup round) for assaulting a civilian on the pitch after the Ipswich game (a laughably lenient sentence for a really very serious offence - WTF??).

Trevoh Chalobah, only on loan at Palace, is ineligible to face parent club Chelsea.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Only 1% of FPL managers have Arne Muric anyway (and probably not as a starter), so his omission last week will probably not have much impact. Although his stand-in, Christian Walton, did outstandingly well, Kieran McKenna has suggested that it was only a token run-out, taking advantage of minor training injury to Muric.

It is very, very risky to have any Manchester City players at the moment; grinding out an unspectacular win against a relegation-bound side (who didn't even play anywhere near their not-that-good best) is not cause for celebration or optimism. But Josko Gvardiol, still owned by over 21%, presents a particular hazard, I think; I've been saying for a while that he's been looking jaded and tired; but the last few games he's started producing some really poor defensive performances too. I'm sure Pep would want to drop him, or at least give him a short break, if he had any other fit defenders at the moment.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Ethan Nwaneri - well, I think so; but I'm afraid Mikel Arteta probably doesn't. He looks like he's going to persist with playing Martinelli now mostly on the right, and Jesus or Trossard on the left; giving the youngster only occasional cameos off the bench. (This is why no-one wants to sign for you, Mikel...)

Haaland-idolaters are rushing to get him back after the win against Leicester. I am more cautious. I've always maintained that there's been no real evidence (recent penalty miss aside!) of any major problem with his own form, only with his team's; and there's been no strong turnaround there - nor any immediate likelihood of one, I fear. DeBruyne's return is a huge plus, of course; but he still doesn't look 100% fit, and probably isn't going to be able to play all of every game. I wouldn't be touching any Manchester City players until after the end of the transfer window - and probably not then, if they haven't been able to land a good new central defensive midfielder.

Eze and Ramsdale again impressed last week. And Wood and Joao Pedro may be coming back into points-scoring form. But on the whole, GW19 didn't generate a lot of excitement.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott:

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip