Sheep Picks (4)

 

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Rayan Ait-Nouri is a classy player, for sure.  I had him in my team for much of last season. He can be very dangerous going forward, is really more of an attacking wing-back than a defensive full-back. But therein lies the problem: with their current defensive form, he may be a luxury Wolves can't afford.

In a classic piece of 'sheep' reactivity, tens of thousands of managers are piling in for him - after he bagged a goal and an assist against Brentford before the break. This, despite the fact that Wolves have conceded 20 goals in their 7 games so far, haven't come close to managing a clean sheet, and have Manchester City and then Brighton up next!

On an optimistic view, I can see Ait-Nouri notching up 6-8 goals over the whole season, and perhaps a similar number of assists. But he's going to need more than that to make up for the huge number of negative points he's accruing with all the goals conceded. Despite scoring in his last two outings (do The Sheep really think that now means he's going to score in every game??), he's still only averaging 3 points per game - which is really not anywhere near enough, even for a defender.... even for a bench player.

At the moment, Wolves are looking hot favourites to be playing in the Championship next year. Yes, they had an unfortunate fixture schedule, with a lot of really difficult opponents at the start of the season. And people now point to the much more promising run of games they face from Gameweek 10 onwards. But unless Gary O'Neill can sort out their appalling defensive record, Wolves don't have any 'good' fixtures. They are down at the bottom of the table for a reason, and they look like they could get beaten - badly - by just about anyone. While this remains the case, any Wolves acquisitions - even attacking players, but especially defenders! - are very risky FPL assets. And an additional concern for those jumping on the Air-Nouri bandwagon should be that the easiest short-term fix for these defensive woes might be to start playing him in a more disciplined and withdrawn role,... or to replace him with a less expansive, more defensively solid player.