Sheep Picks (3)

 

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has seen his ownership more than double, rocketing above 400,000, since his goal against Bournemouth. Now, he did look quite sharp all around in that game. And Everton, inspired by Dwight McNeil in a more central creative role, are looking much more dangerous going forward this year. But... DC-L has had an appalling injury record over the last three years. And he's completely lost his way as a goalscorer, massively under-performing his xG figures. He really seemed to benefit from the mentorship of Duncan Ferguson, and since the big Scot left the club in 2022, his form and confidence have tanked. While it is occasionally possible to form a reliable long-term judgement about someone from one game (with Cole Palmer last season, it took me just a few minutes!), that's not the general rule; you really need to see evidence of a consistent shift in form emerging over two or three games; and I doubt if we'll get that from Dominic.

Even if we do, it would be crazy to take a risk on a player with such a reputation for being injury-prone, under-performing for long periods, and suffering crashes in confidence and 'mental health' problems. Particularly when there are so many other promising forward options this year costing 6.0 million or less. Piling in for Calvert-Lewin on the basis of one goal - or even two or three or four - is absolutely NUTS.