Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 20

  

The 'holiday' mayhem continues into a cold, wet January - now with an added sprinkle of uncertainty and confusion from the opening of the mid-season transfer window.

Forest were looking dogged and determined in their visit to Villa for the lunchtime game, and frustrated their in-form hosts for long periods. Apart from an excellent save by John Victor in the opening minutes when a blocked clearance from Neco Williams fortuitously fizzed sideways across the area straight to Watkins lurking in the middle at the edge of the six-yard box, there were few clearcut chances for either side. However, Watkins broke the deadlock with a ripper from 20 yards out on the stroke of half-time. Villa appeared to have given themselves a comfort margin when McGinn grabbed a second within minutes of the restart; but their energy levels dropped off, and Forest gratefully took the chance to grow back into the game. Bakwa should really have got them back in the game when he ghosted in unmarked just beyond the far post to meet Hutchinson's cross, but hopelessly miscued his header. Shortly afterwards, Gibbs-White broke in behind and finished coolly past Martinez to give the visitors hope again - but a second goal from McGinn soon dashed them again; a terrible error from John Victor, coming 30 yards out of his goal to challenge for a ball, when there were plenty of his own defenders on hand to deal with it, allowing McGinn to calmly curl the ball around him into an empty net. The Brazilian keeper apparently pulled a muscle behind his knee in the course of this, and was immediately replaced by Sels.

Brighton should really have won more comfortably against a particularly clueless-looking Burnley. Fine goals from Rutter and Ayari secured the win, but they could, should have had many more goals; debutant winger Kostoulas nearly opened the scoring just a few minutes in, but had been offside by a shoulder; near the end, De Cuyper thundered a free-kick against the top of the left-hand post. The visitors had only 1 effort on goal during the first 70 or 80 minutes, but roused themselves to a few desperate final flurries, one of which had to be headed out from under the bar by Kadioglu (which was apparently enough to secure him a massive BPS tally and maximum bonus points, despite not registering any attacking contributions and only 4 game actions eligible for 'defensive points'!!), and another of which was eventually claimed by Verbruggen after the ball had pinged around the six-yard box rather worryingly for several seconds. Burnley are now looking very nearly as certain to be relegated as Wolves.

Wolves appear revitalised by the sensational form of their new young attacking midfielder Mateus Mané, only turned 18 a few months ago and just promoted from the youth team for the past three games. He regularly tore a woeful West Ham apart, winning a penalty (although that was very soft), scoring a terrific final goal from the edge of the box, and a little later having another good, low cross-shot well turned away by Areola - after he'd got away from two West Ham defenders on the edge of the area with a Cruyff turn. However, West Ham really should have had a penalty of their own in the opening minutes, when Freddie Potts was clipped on the toe by wild swish from a Wolves defender; the contact was fairly light, but completely clearcut - and I don't see how that was not given. And if the visitors had obtained an early lead so easily, perhaps the match would have taken on a very different character; although, to be honest, West Ham looked so lethargic and demoralised in this game, were so easily dominated by the home side, they were probably lucky not to lose by a landslide; they needed a couple of outstanding saves from Areola to keep thm hanging on by their fingernails. The penalty award against them, though, looked very dubious: Magassa and Mané both lifted their feet to a high, dropping ball in the box - but their boots barely clashed, and it was an entirely 50/50 coming-together, no way a penalty. West Ham had another shout of their own a bit later when Soucek went down while grappling with Krejci at a corner, although there didn't look to be anything in that one; if anything, Soucek was the one holding on, and trying to drag his defender down with him.

The major FPL bombshell of the weekend was that Declan Rice, who'd appeared to be a big doubt before the game, was fine to play from the start after all - and had an absolute blinder, delivering what will probably be his best points return of the season... and one of the best from any player. Away to Bournemouth on the weekend after New Year's might not have looked one of Arsenal's more promising fixtures anyway, and indeed, they did concede first; but it proved to be quite the ding-dong game, with Rice registering a brace of goals (for the first time ever in the Premier League) and a huge 'defensive contributions' tally; but many FPL managers (he's owned by just over 20%, and it really ought to be more) - not unreasonably - might have left him on the bench this week (though some may have enjoyed some further luck if an unexpected non-appearance allowed him to be auto-subbed in for them). To add insult to injury, Saka - a popular captaincy choice this week - was rested (something Arteta just about never does, so long as both feet are still attached to his ankles); although he did at least come on for the last 20 minutes or so, and was still able to register a contribution.

The game got off to a calamitous start for the title-chasers, with Gabriel making a horrible mistake inside 10 minutes - bizarrely passing the ball to Evanilson in the middle 20 yards out (leaving him to pass the ball into an empty net, since Raya had come way out to the left to be available for a short back-pass). He was able to at least partly atone very shortly afterwards when he grabbed an equaliser by lashing in a left-foot half-volley at the far post from a corner (Fate being rather on his side, as it was somewhat fortuitous that the ball broke so perfectly to him after the packed Bournemouth defence had successfully blocked initial efforts from Hincapie and Martinelli). However, the home side were well on top for most of the first-half, creating constant danger; and although the Rice goals in the third quarter of the game deflated them slightly, they again came back very strongly in the closing minutes, encouraged by substitute Kroupi's banger from 20 yards out which put them back in contention. Arsenal managed to convert three pretty difficult chances, but their xG was lower than Bournemouth's and they really looked second-best in this game.

Leeds v Manchester United was almost unwatchably dull in the first-half, looking very much as if it was going to be one of those games that would end goalless because neither side were good enough to create a decent chance. Fortunately, both sides upped their game somewhat in the second-half, though this still very much had the look of a lower mid-table clash. There was a strange moment early on when Cunha appeared to have lashed home a long-range half-volley after a long clearance from Lammens. It was flagged offside, but I still haven't seen any convincing explanation for this decision; 2 or 3 United players were just offside when Lammens launched his kick upfield, but they all ran back on, and I don't think any of them played the ball on its way through to Cunha - who had been onside throughout: a rough decision, and frankly a rather baffling one. Calvert-Lewin also had one very good effort in the first-half, a glancing header that flashed across the goal and struck the face of the far post. Apart from these untypical moments of excitement, it was a terribly sterile first 45 minutes. Leeds really looked like they deserved 3 points from the game, but Cunha popped up for an equaliser just a few minutes after Aaronson had given them the lead, and that deflated them rather; although Okafor's bicycle-kick attempt nearly gave them the win, demanding a sharp save from Lammens, and Piroe curled an effort on to the roof of the net in the dying minutes. Cunha finally seems to be coming into a little bit of goalscoring form - perhaps enjoying the greater responsibility placed on him in Mbeumo's absence. Ominous signs afterwards when Amorim struck a petulant note in his press conference, apparently declaring that he would leave the club at the end of his current contract, and also hinting at a rift with the hierarchy in asserting that he was supposed to be 'the manager' not just the coach at the club (which is usually code for being pissed off that the Sporting Director isn't giving you the new players you want... and generally leads to an imminent departure, as we've already seen this season with Nuno Espiritu Santo and Enzo Maresca). [Ooh, that's a bingo! Nothing especially prescient in my saying this - but, of course, he did indeed get the boot first thing the next day, mere hours after I wrote this.]

Everton v Brentford was an all-action game - really the day's best, though well down the 'Match of the Day' running order, presumably simply because they're not 'big name' teams. Thiago, who had been strangely goalless in December, despite continuing to put in excellent performances, quelled any doubts about his form by bagging a hattrick (and it might have been 4: he brought one very good stop out of Pickford in the first-half). Everton's usually robust defence was a bit out-of-sorts here, perhaps just overstretched by the pace of their visitors' relentless counter-attacks; the home side had some decent moments of their own, though, forcing a few very good saves out of Kelleher, and grabbing a couple of late consolation goals. Thiago had been clearly offside for his second when the long ball was initially played over the top, but was safely back onside before the final pass was played to him; but again we suffered a long VAR check, and - as with the Wirtz incident at Craven Cottage - the SAOT picture eventually shared did not correspond at all to what we'd seen on the TV; and it was apparently declaring him to have been onside (presumably for the final pass rather the initial long-ball, for which his position should not have been relevant?) only by the thickness of a wrinkle on the defender's forehead - I do wish this nonsense would stop! Moyes risked the ire of FPL enthusiasts - and possibly some Everton fans too - by withdrawing Tyler Dibling and Dwight McNeil at half-time. Lewis-Potter, recently popular in FPL because of his scoring potential when started as a forward, was unexpectedly rested for this one, only coming on for the last 25 minutes or so (which, unfortunately, was when Everton banged in their 2 goals....).

The Fulham v Liverpool game was marred by more weirdness with the offside calls. There was a protracted delay to confirm Harry Wilson's goal, initially flagged offside by the linesman, although to the naked eye he had looked clearly on (not by much, but fairly clearly an inch or two the right side of Van Dijk); but when we finally got the SAOT graphic, he and the last defender appeared to be exactly level, and it was not clear what 'the line' was being drawn on! The 'margin', if indeed there was one at all, can't have been much more than the thickness of a player's shirt; I don't like to see goals ruled out for such minimal distances, but it's also a bit harsh on defending sides when a decision goes against them on such a hair's-breadth difference; I really hope we soon see a revision of the Offside Law to allow for a much larger and more clearcut gap between the attacker and the last defender. The subsequent delay for Wirtz's equaliser was even more confounding: in the TV freeze-frame that kept being shown, the German was clearly offside by the length of his leading foot, from instep to toe (and it actually looked as if that chosen frame might have been one or two premature, that Bradley had not yet finished releasing the ball to him!); but the SAOT picture, when it finally appeared, showed his leg less extended and the foot twisted inward - so that the tip of his toe was now exactly level with the line of the last defender. When there is such a big discrepancy between the TV picture and the SAOT rendering, we really need some explanation of that - to restore some confidence (of which I, frankly, have none at all!) in this new system: it appeared very much as though the SAOT had chosen the moment of ball-release from Bradley (supposedly determined by a sensor inside the ball?) at least a tenth of a second or so too early - and that makes a huge difference on tight calls like this. I have said often that I think the answer to this is not to 'improve' the technology, but simply to abandon the idea of trying to determine such tiny margins and return to the old policy of 'giving the benefit of the doubt' to the attacking side. Alas, in this technological age, I doubt that will ever happen.

Ekitike was another omission, yet another victim of a late hamstring problem. Liverpool had some good chances (Gakpo and Macallister both headed against the bar), but they looked a bit short of energy at times; even the usually dynamic Szoboszlai seemed a bit leggy here. Fulham were overall much the better team, and their pressure through the second-half might have wrapped up a win (especially when Harry Wilson chipped Alisson, but saw the effort bounce back off the top of the crossbar) before they were shocked by Gakpo's late second goal; they were thoroughly deserving of their own late, late goal - substitute Reed's absolute banger - that saved them a point.

Eddie Howe started Wissa over Woltemade and Murphy over Barnes, while Glasner gave an immediate start to Brennan Johnson, barely 48 hours after joining the club on loan from Spurs. Visitors Palace survived an early scare when Gordon finished off a quick break, but Wissa was - rightly - adjudged to have been very slightly offside as he ran through to receive the initial through-ball. It was mostly one-way traffic, though - with Palace's only decent chance unfortunately falling to Will Huges, who prodded wide - and they were visibly tiring as Newcastle ramped up the pressure in the last 25 minutes; they really might have conceded a third, as Henderson made a fantastic save from Barnes with his foot in the closing minutes, and Willock somehow blazed the rebound wide of an open-goal. Things are really starting to look a bit grim for Palace.

Spurs and Sunderland both played like teams with a bad New Year's hangover; this might well have been the poorest performance of the season from both of them. Spurs had much the best of the first-half, but didn't have the quality to create any decent chances, let alone convert any (their best, actually, didn't come until the closing minutes, when Porro put in a sublime cross from the right, but substitute Palhinha couldn't direct his header on target). Sunderland will be kicking themselves that their defending completely broke down on one first-half corner, allowing Ben Davies (getting his first start of the season, mysteriously preferred now to Djed Spence) to lash the ball home from the edge of the six-yard box. In the second-half, Sunderland roused themselves to chase the game, and began to look more like the home side - as Spurs had no response. An equaliser started to look inevitable, and Spurs were lucky, really, not to end up losing 2-1 or 3-1.

Gonzalez and Savinho were ruled out by injury for City, and Doku was strangely left on the bench; and they lost Ruben Dias and Gvardiol to injuries in the second-half here; but at least Rodri was able to return, lasted the full 90 minutes, and looked somewhere near his best again. Chelsea were without Caicedo due to a totting-up suspension (in the last game before the mid-season 'amnesty'), Fofana due to illness, and goalkeeper Sanchez due to a muscle strain suffered in training, but didn't appear too disturbed by the acrimonious departure of their manager in midweek. They defended stalwartly through the first-half, mostly confining City to hopeful shots from outside the box (Foden and Bernardo Silva not getting their efforts particularly close to the target); Haaland had two good first-half efforts, one a deflected shot from the edge of the box that needed a fingertip save from stand-in keeper Jorgensen, and the other a fierce curler from 15 yards that rebounded off the inside of the post. But the pressure had been mounting, and when Reijnders nicked the lead just before half-time, you feared the floodgates might open. But they came back out looking much more positive, and created most of the better chances in the second-half: Neto was set up with a sitter by Enzo, but scooped it over the top. City's best chance came with a fast break that ended with Cherki finding Silva in the middle of the box, but Hato stole it off his toe with a great sliding challenge. It was looking as if City had managed to hang on to the 3 points, but right at the death Enzo managed to prod the ball home at the far post after a fast break down the right. Chelsea caretaker manager Calum McFarlane acted decisively to give his side a chance in the game, taking Estevao off at half-time (and making 2 further substitutions only just past the hour!): the introduction of Santos alongside James as the second pivot allowed Enzo to play further forward alongside Palmer, and that immediately transformed Chelsea's attacking play. No dodgy refereeing at all in this one - remarkable!

It's another particularly weird FPL 'Team of the Week': though it might have been even worse - in mid-gameweek it included 4 Brighton and 4 Wolves players!! In the end, we still had Ayari, Janelt, McGinn, Enzo Fernandez, and newcomer Mateus Mané dominating the list; Declan Rice was the only fairly high-owned player to gain inclusion (and he was probably left on the bench by a majority of his owners, as he was said to have missed training all week with a swollen knee).

A few selection surprises and late injury-reveals, a couple of dubious penalty calls, and some weird shenanigans with very tight offside decisions, and a whole host of improbable goals banged in from well outside the penalty area... as well as a lot of big hauls from slightly unexpected sources, while the majority of the most popular players again produced fairly little - and we saw yet again a miserably low global average of just 42 points! All of this makes it about a 7 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter' this gameweek.