Almost done...

 

So, it's nearly over: the first Club World Cup Tournament is down to its last game. It's been a hell of a ride so far. I wonder if there might yet be one or two surprises in store for us on Sunday? 

Funnily enough, I picked Chelsea and PSG to reach the Final (and Chelsea to win!) in my 'bracket prediction' at the start of the competition - though that was more wishful thinking than crystal-ball confidence!

After PSG's demolition of Real Madrid, I imagine the betting market for the game is revolving around how many goals the Paris team are going to win by.... But Chelsea, as I said the other day, have a certain amount of momentum behind them now, having played with a lot of confidence and determination to overcome adversity in their progress to this point. And Joao Pedro, outstanding the other day, is currently looking the best forward to have appeared in the whole competition. (Although he's not really a forward. I don't know what position he was supposed to be playing on Tuesday, but it sure as hell wasn't a No. 9; 'false 9' or 'joint 10', maybe - but he hardly set foot in the box all game.)

The semi-finals, while they had plenty of excellent football, were a bit of a disappointment as contests. I had been wary of making any firm prediction for them, because I felt they could both potentially be very close. But it didn't really turn out that way!

Fluminense, perhaps, finally ran into 'altitude sickness', a faltering of self-belief as they realised how much further they'd progressed than anyone, themselves included, had ever expected. But if that penalty award just before half-time hadn't been overturned on review, that might have given them the lift they needed to go after the game. Or indeed, if Cucurella hadn't pulled off that remarkable goal-line clearance from Arias, they might immediately have been back on terms after Joao Pedro's confidence-sapping opener. The penalty decision ultimately seemed fair; Chalobah did appear to be trying to pull his arm out of the way of the ball rather than moving towards it (although it might have been slightly ambiguous: as he swivelled his torso away from the ball, centrifugal force made his arm sway slightly away from his body towards it...). However, we've seen an awful lot of penalties given for incidents like that in recent years. And we almost never see VAR daring to query the referee's decision on something like that. So, that was a very hard blow for the Brazilians. As were the two wonder-strikes out of nothing from their former player - ultimately the only difference between the two sides: Chelsea had two chances and put them both away emphatically, Fluminense had rather more but couldn't make any of them count. (And I'd be curious to see what the xG calculation was for Joao Pedro's brace: very, very low, I would expect!)

And if the 'Many Universes' theory is true, I would imagine that there are a large number of possible worlds where Real romped away with an improbably comfortable win over PSG, rather than vice versa. Having both of the usually immaculate centre-backs, Asencio and Rudiger, lose possession in front of their goal to give up easy chances.... in the first 10 minutes of the match??!! No-one was predicting that! The game was pretty much dead-and-buried almost before it had begun.

Alas, the Fantasy game is pretty much dead-and-buried too. This is the unfortunate weakness of Fantasy games in knockout tournaments: with progressively fewer teams (and, usually, cagier matches as there's more and more on the line), points returns dwindle in the later rounds; and with only a single game on the last MatchDay, there's very little scope for differentiation, little hope for making up even a small deficit over a rival. Going for one of the subs (like Goncalo Ramos), who might possibly contribute a goal or assist late in the game, could provide a bit of an edge. But in all probability, rankings for the last MatchDay will be determined mainly by how well you did with your captaincy choice.

I keep my interest in the game going by focusing on the round-by-round head-to-head tally against my principal antagonist - my best drinking buddy from college days. He managed to get a monster score in the 'Round of 16', and despite trouncing him in two of the group rounds and the quarters and the semis, I still haven't quite clawed back the gap - and almost certainly won't now be able to. But coming out on top in the Final, by even a solitary point, will confer epic bragging rights.  [Well, what do you know.... I bet heavily on Chelsea, putting Sanchez in goal; while my friend backed PSG and went with Donnarumma. I was chasing a daunting 17-point deficit and wound up with a 45-point advantage in the final game!! Still a rather disappointing tournament for me overall, though. I had hoped to top 500 points, but in fact barely scraped above the 'adequate' threshold of 450 with a fairly strong finish in the last two rounds. I suppose that was still in the top 5%, but I had aspired for much better than that. Fairly poor returns in MD1 and the 'Round of 16' cost me heavily; and I never quite managed the magical ton-up in a round to redeem those set-backs.]

In the Many Universes,  I imagine at least 75% of them see Paris St Germain cruise to the title quite comfortably. But I have an inkling we might live in one of the other ones - one of the ones where Palmer and Joao Pedro, and Cucurella and Gusto, pull off something remarkable. 

Either way, it should be a cracking game!!