Dilemmas of the Week - GW5

 Every week, we need to take a long hard look at our squad, and ask ourselves if we want to make any changes....

If we do see a pressing case for a change here or there, we then need to weigh that against the possible advantage of saving our transfer - 'rolling' it over to use in a future week. This option achieves greater tactical complexity this season with the new rule that allows us to save up as many as 5 Free Transfers to use at one time. If we ever manage to do that, it would in effect be a 'mini Wildcard', enabling us to conduct a major squad overhaul in one fell swoop (particularly useful as there are a handful of 'premium' players who cost so much more than everyone else that you can't conveniently move them in and out of your squad without making multiple other changes as well).

Then, of course, occasionally multiple changes may seem so inescapable that we have to consider whether it's worth spending points on 1 or 2 extra transfers (a tactic which obviously deserves a whole post of its own one day).

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 5?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Not moved out, surely (although the lack of news on Martin Odegaard's recovery timeline must be a worry for the relatively small numbers who own him; and more generally for the owners of all other Arsenal assets, all of whose returns are likely to be diminished during Odegaard's absence...), but there are a lot of vexing 'yellow flag' uncertainties this week: Isak, Watkins, DeBruyne, Ait-Nouri, Joao Pedro and Calvert-Lewin chief amongst them - though these all seem like quite minor issues that might magically disappear on Saturday morning. Let's hope so, if we were relying on any of these as a starter. [Although the number of people piling in for DC-L on the basis of a couple of lively games - after two or three years of incessant injuries and profound goal-blindness!! - is the epitome of reactive nonsense; I don't see him being anywhere near even a 3rd striker pick.... quite yet.]

The only major new issue is Yoane Wissa, who suffered a fairly serious ankle injury against City last weekend, and is likely to miss at least two months. [But I can't imagine too many people had him, even as a 3rd choice striker??]

Oh, and I'd missed this at first; but it seems Alisson also has a muscle problem, and looks doubtful for this weekend... and maybe next? Again, not something you should be wasting transfers on, if it's a very short-term problem; you need a good back-up keeper for circumstances like this.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Popular 4.0-million-pound bench-filler Taylor Harwood-Bellis was dropped last week; but that might have been a fitness issue, and I gather he's expected to start again this week, or soon, anyway. The greater worry with him is that he's not yet had much opportunity to show his attacking prowess, while Southampton have been so poor defensively that he looks likely to register negative points for goals conceded every single week - and is thus a bit of a hazardous asset even to carry on your bench.

Gakpo's lively performance for Liverpool against AC may have raised some uncomfortable doubts as to whether he might replace Diaz (or Jota?) in the EPL starting line-up, or at least get some rotation with them. But I think they've been good enough so far to keep their starts, and Gakpo is going to have to content himself with a super-sub role until one of them gets injured.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

A lot of people seemed to have been getting cold feet about Isak - just because he's disappointed their inflated expectations of him (although he's still got a very decent 17 points so far, despite some tough fixtures, and one match ruined for his side by an unjust, early sending-off....). That is just reactive stupidity; he is certainly going to be among the top three strikers this season (and is, arguably, in fact the best finisher of the lot), and absolutely worth holding on to through any brief 'drought'. But these impulsive transfer flows - transient sheep stampedes - quickly reverse themselves; everyone was dropping Watkins in GW3/4, and now, after a couple of goals, they're all piling back in for him - nonsense!

There might be more reasonable fears about Arsenal players; the whole team has to be restructured without Odegaard, and lacks incisiveness. Saka and Havertz, in particular, are likely to be much less productive with their creative fulcrum missing. Many people had doubts about this next little run of fixtures anyway - a 'title-decider' clash with City, an away trip to Newcastle, and then a potentially tricky London derby with Fulham; the prospects of big returns for any of their players in these games are now looking quite slim. But it seems Odegaard isn't going to be absent for much more than a month, and you ought to be able to ride out a problem of that kind without splashing transfers (this is why you need a good bench!); a few weeks of possibly weak returns for Arsenal assets shouldn't be a reason to offload them.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Emile Smith Rowe is indeed emerging as much the most promising of the budget midfield picks (I don't think he's going to be this year's Cole Palmer, but he might be an Anthony Gordon!); and if you didn't have him from the start of the season, you seriously need to consider going in for him now - before his price goes up any more.

And although this would be a highly risky and speculative move at this stage.... fortune often favours the brave: I think Jadon Sancho is the most interesting of the late loans/transfers in this window, and he had a very lively debut at Chelsea last week. I have a strong hunch that, if he can secure a regular start there, he could well prove to be the best 6.5 asset this year. (You heard it here first....)

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!