Oops - he did it AGAIN!

 

I joked last week that we might already have seen 'peak Haaland' for this season - at least in terms of his points-per-game average.  And then the bugger goes and gets another hattrick!!

Now, it would be absolutely astonishing if he managed to register THREE hattricks in successive weeks. (I don't think that's ever been done in the Premier League? And probably not in top flight football anywhere in the world, ever in history? But dammit, he is a record-smashing machine... Maybe it could happen??)  And, statistically, it does seem rather improbable that he'll even pick up a brace again for another month or so now....

But he is in exceptional form: probably the sharpest and most confident we've ever seen him. And that is utterly terrifying!

And it is prompting many people to revisit The Big Question I considered before the start of the season, whether a with-Haaland or without-Haaland squad was likely to be the best option for FPL this year.

I think that question is more open than we might have expected - an early switch of strategy more tempting - not just because of Haaland's exceptional start to the season, but because of the impressiveness of our options at the lower end of the price scale. No, we don't have any 4.0 starting keepers (like Areola last year) or unexpectedly starting and oustandingly good cheap defenders (like Gusto and Van Hecke); and we don't have a 'Player of the Season' available for only 5.0 (Palmer was a once-in-a-decade-or-two FPL miracle!!). But we do suddenly have Arrizabalaga, Johnstone, Verbruggen, and Ramsdale added to the pool of very decent keeper options at only 4.5 (I'd probably stick with Areola and Henderson as the strongest two at the moment; but Hermansen, Sels, and Muric could also emerge as tempting, more left-field picks); there's even a chance that 4.0 Fabianski might get a few starts, after Areola apparently hurt himself with a bad landing in the City game this weekend. Up front, we've got Wood, Wissa, Welbeck, Joao Pedro, Delap, Vardy, Calvert-Lewin, Duran and Strand-Larsen among the leading scorers so far - all priced between 5.0 and 6.0 million. And - outside of the inevitable Liverpool and Arsenal (and the slightly less inevitable Spurs!) back lines - all the top 15 highest-scoring defenders started the season at only 4.5 million. In particular, Rico Lewis getting a regular start at City (for now) is a huge bonus. And, to fill out the last couple of seats on the bench, there are even some OK defenders starting who cost only 4.0 million: Nedeljković, Faes, Harwood-Bellis.

Above all, there are some very strong-looking cheaper midfield options; and that is the area of the field where most of your points are usually produced. A With-Haaland squad would not be viable, I don't think, unless we could assemble a full roster of 5 strong attacking midfielders with the remains of our budget. But we have the likes of Smith Rowe, Semenyo, Iwobi, Rogers, Murphy, Wharton, Hudson-Odoi, Adingra, Minteh, Diallo, Kluivert, Tavernier, Sinisterra all looking like more-than-decent prospects to take up the last one or two spots in midfield.

It is looking perfectly possible to assemble a Haaland-Salah-Palmer squad that includes at least one other premium player, and doesn't go ridiculously light in any area of the pitch (NO non-playing bench!!). You only get into trouble, I think, if you rashly opt for Raya or Alisson in goal, and/or one or two of the more premium defenders. With Arsenal and Liverpool looking so solid, it is very likely that players from their defences will substantially out-perform almost all others, but.... will they do so by enough of a margin to justify the huge extra outlay?? That remains doubtful: the spread of points across the best keepers is usually fairly small; the spread across defenders - except for a few outliers sometimes - not much greater. Extra money spent almost always yields more points in midfield.

I can see why so many people are getting tempted to go for an early use of the Wildcard this week (I will probably have more to say on that before long): many of those who initially opted to go without Haaland - perhaps the majority - have had a change of heart. (It's probably safe to assume that almost no-one is moving the other way, and dropping him!)  I hope that's not just short-term reactionism, getting spooked by his two hattricks (you've already missed those: let it go....).  If you're going to make this momentous switch (as I think I will myself), it needs to be because you've carefully considered the overall budget constraints and the available player pool. At the start of the season, we didn't know how many of these cheaper options would be starting, or how good their prospects might be; now that is becoming more apparent, we have a better picture of what a strong With-Haaland squad could be.