Luck-o-Meter (3)

 

I am really trying to persuade myself that the overall standard of refereeing is getting better, little by little, every week.

And yet... still it seems that almost every week we're going to see at least half a dozen dubious - or just outright daft, bad, outrageous - decisions: disallowed goals, penalties and sendings-off given and not given... which can completely flip the course of matches.

And that is an absolutely staggering number: it probably means that poor refereeing is, in most weeks, having the largest single impact on FPL points outcomes (as well as, you know, possibly distorting the Premier League title race) - far more than quirks of team selection, unexpected swings in team form, or outstanding pieces of individual brilliance. This should not be happening. Sigh.

This week, the bizarre sending-off of Declan Rice was probably the most egregious. (Referees do have some discretion as to how severely they punish a 'kicking the ball away' kind of offence, particularly when it would be a second yellow. And you'd think that kind of leniency was mandatory here, since Rice barely moved the ball at all, and it might well have been accidental, or at least unthinking.)  This appalling error of judgement was further compounded by the fact that Veltman, who'd taken a petulant swish at Rice in the same incident, clearly had no excuse for being left on the field - trying to kick an opponent must always be a straight red (even though the contact here was fairly minimal; you can't have any leniency with a deliberate kick). And yet again, we heard nothing from VAR on this?? What is going on with that?

Just to rub salt into Arsenal's sense of grievance, Joao Pedro had been let off a much more serious 'kicking the ball away' offence earlier in the game. Even omitted yellow cards can have a major impact on game outcomes, especially this early on: Pedro would have been at risk of expulsion himself for most of the game, and his contribution would likely have been more muted as a result (he would probably have been withdrawn much earlier, and wouldn't have been around to score the equaliser). 

Saka probably should have had a penalty early in the game as well, when hauled to the ground by his shirt on the edge of the box (we can see the argument that the offence 'started' outside the box, but it certainly continued long after that, and its decisive element - for me - clearly happened when Saka was at least directly above, if not well inside the line of the side of the box). And they definitely should have had one for the Dunk handball - which should be a 'strict liability' offence when you stop a goal-bound shot: arguments about presumed intentionality have no relevance (other than to whether the defending player deserves a card for the offence), nor do questions about the position of the arm (unless it's so close to the body that you really can't see if it hit the body as well, or in front of the body, such that the body would also have blocked the shot - neither the case here), or whether he had any time to get out of the way; if you stop a goal with your arm, even by accident (and I'm pretty sure that was at least half-deliberate...), it's a penalty. Arsenal should have won that game far more comfortably, and probably kept a clean sheet as well - a HUGE turnaround for FPL and EPL. (I'm usually annoyed by Arteta's whingeing - but he's absolutely got a point this time.)

It is also unfathomable that Palace's Will Hughes didn't receive a second yellow for blatantly holding back Palmer on a surging run through the middle. Again, that decision probably robbed Chelsea of a win.

Leicester, too, absolutely should have had a penalty, when Tielemans flattened Vardy from behind on the edge of the box late on. He got something of the ball, yes; but that is never an absolute defence - he got all of the man.

Wolves might also consider themselves a bit unlucky that they didn't nick the win with a late penalty after Wood had clumsily tangled with Dawson in the Forest penalty area. That one was much more of a 50/50 (and they wouldn't have deserved the win) - but at least it was a decent shout.

Haaland owners must again consider themselves slightly lucky. A hattrick in successive weeks is a very rare feat, even for such a remarkable player as him; and really, Ipswich and West Ham do not appear the most likely victims for such a drubbing. At least his haul this week was entirely deserved, all three brilliant finishes - whereas last week he'd needed a very soft penalty and a horrible goal-keeping error to gift him two of the three.

Another element of the 'luck' equation, though, has to be missed chances; and it should be noted that Haaland actually fluffed his easiest chance in this game; while Mo Salah failed to convert two of his (though not quite such gimmes as Haaland's). DeBruyne, Porro, Isak, and Palmer also battered the woodwork. So many little moments in a game where things might go one way or the other.

And overall, it was a week where outstanding goalkeeping performances prevailed over striking ones - with a remarkable 18 'saves' points being racked up. There were some particularly good stops from Ederson, Alisson, Pope, and a whole string of them from Dean Henderson; but I think the pick of the crop was probably Areola's save from DeBruyne's fierce near-post drive. (Yes, he might have been slightly at fault for inviting DeBruyne's hastily improvised attempt by leaving such a large gap on that side of his goal, but he came flying across to his near post and somehow clawed the ball away from behind him...  It was one of those saves that didn't seem possible.)

However, a keeper being withdrawn at half-time is a very rare occurrence - that was a hard blow for Areola's owners, but an unanticipated windfall for Fabianksi's (especially if the injury proves to be significant, and the Pole now gets promoted for a run of games, rather than just a rather unenviable 45 minutes against Erling Haaland....).

At lleast, the 'usual suspects' all came through pretty well this week: in the 'Team of the Week', probably only Sugawara, Sinisterra, and Calvert-Lewin are very low-owned.

Overall then, I think a LUCK rating for this week would have been fairly high even without any more refereeing cock-ups. But with four contentious penalty decisions and three sending-off incidents, Gameweek 3 was pretty nearly as bad as the phenomenally LUCKY Gameweek 1 - another 9 out of 10, I think.

Let us hope that things settle down after the international break.