Luck-o-Meter (29)

Although it's been known all season that GW29 would be a Blank Gameweek for (probably) four sides, and for the past month or so it's been known what those blanking sides would be,.... still a Blank Gameweek is itself a huge hassle to navigate, and - arguably - a major element of 'luck' impacting this week's outcomes in all sorts of ways. However, with relatively few top picks affected, it really should have been possible to dodge around this one using just regular transfers (and risking an empty bench, full of rested blanking players, for one week); but in combination with injuries, drops in form, and a number of promising fixtures that looked possibly ripe for exploitation this week, many people were tempted to use their Free Hit (or theie Second WildCard( this weekend. If they chose well, that almost certainly would have given them a substantial lift over everyone who was getting by without a chip. But the fact is that the Free Hit, in particular (but possibly also the WildCard as well), is likely to be much more valuable in the bigger blank week of GW34 (or, if not there, in the one or two adjacent Double Gameweeks we're expecting to result from that); you can't yet say you've done 'well' from using one of the rebuild chips, because they're not a one-week deal; they have to be evaluated also in terms of 'opportunity cost', of the points potentially lost in other weeks when they might have worked better. But with so many people getting a points lift from this ploy (and a good number having the 'Assistant Manager' in play too, though, really, god knows why) weekly points tallies and rankings mean even less than usual.

Everton and West Ham both seemed somewhat below their best, and produced a fairly dour encounter. Everton stepped things up at the end, and looked like they really wanted to snatch the late win - nearly did so, with Carlos Alcaraz screwing an effort just wide in injury time. The penalty denied to Beto in the first half was fair enough.

Ipswich again showed some threat going forward, but were often woeful at the back. The big surprises here were really that Forest didn't score more, that they didn't keep a clean sheet (two superb goals from Ipswich, late in the game, out of nothing....), and who the goals fell to. There really was no reason for any FPL manager to prefer Anthony Elanga (who hasn's scored, or come close to doing so, in nearly three months, and has never scored a brace in the Premier League before) over creative lynchpin Morgan Gibbs-White or recently dangerous again Callum Hudson-Odoi; or to prefer Milenkovic (his chance was set up by a miscued defensive header from Delap going right to him) over any of the other defenders; or for supposing that this season's 'Mr Reliable', Chris Wood, would somehow not get on the scoresheet in such an easy win. So, even though the general result was much as predicted, there was still a lot of FPL 'luck' in play here! But at least there doesn't appear to have been anything for the referee to mess up in this one.

Despite the advantage of an early penalty (and an early opposition goal being ruled out for Mitoma; one of those decisions that was probably 'correct' on a strict application of the rules, but nevertheless feels harsh - I don't think Ortega had the ball fully under control in his hands, and he kind of 'dropped' the ball on to the forward's head rather than being dispossessed by a 'challenge'...), and then taking the lead again wih a wonder-strike from Marmoush, City were never really able to get on top in this game. As I'd expected, Brighton often looked able to cut them open at will on the counter, and had way the best of the chances - really should have been able to win the game by 2 or 3 goals. The opening penalty may have been a little harsh; Webster must presumably have caught Marmoush with his trailing leg, because the leading foot wasn't anywhere near him; but that was not clearly visible on the angle shown on the BBC. Baleba was possibly a bit lucky to escape a red card for a heavy contact on Gvardiol (VAR presumably thought that he had 'accidentally' trodden on the City man's ankle rather than catching him with a reckless follow-through; but the reasoning was never publicly explained). And Pep was very unhappy about Doku getting a card for 'diving'; I have mixed feelings on that one - a 'diving' charge was harsh, since he legitimately needed to jump over Van Hecke's high-speed sliding challenge; but you can jump over a player's legs without nearly doing a somersault...  In FPL terms, it's more of a shock that the mild-mannered Kaoru Mitoma somehow picked up a yellow card, leaving him with only 1 point... in a game in which he might easily have been 'Man of the Match'!!

Siuthampton v Wolves was another game like the Ipswich one where a dominant visiting side failed to fully capitalise on their superiority, and somehow conceded a goal out of nothing, to make the match seem closer than it had been - and to frustrate the legions of FPL managers who had been hoping for a clean sheet somewhere from one of these teams against the relegation-bound sides.

Bournemouth v Brentford was another topsy-turvy one, where the home side appeared to have done more than enough to win the game comfortably, but couldn't capitalise on all the great chances they had.... and then they fell asleep in defending a corner and a long throw to toss the game away.

In a dreadfully drab game at Arsenal, the home side dominated without creating many decent chances. Roibert Sanchez just about justified his - to many people, questionable - selection with a couple of very smart reaction stops, clawing shots back from his line.... but continued to look a liability every time he had the ball at his feet. Marc Cucurella was very unlucky not to continue his short scoring streak, when his crisp half-volley somehow squirmed through Raya's hands, and spun agonisingly. across the face of the goal, going only inches wide of the far post. And Chelsea still can't get a penalty! Here, Saliba clearly stomped on Nkunku's heel with a follow-through and brought him down; any argument that he might have got something of the ball (he didn't, as far as I could see) should have been irrelevant, since he'd clearly kicked his opponent. But the biggest surprise - and hence 'luck'-factor - here was the surprise last-minute omission with a previously unannounced training injury of the (still massively owned) Cole Palmer.

Fulham v Spurs was another dour, unexciting encounter. Spurs were predictably hamstrung by Postecoglou's unfathomable decision to rest most of his best players (OK, they had just come through a tough European tie on Thursday; but they've got two-and-a-half weeks to get over that - some of them are not even involved in the internationals, and they're out of the FA Cup...): the BBC struggled to find any 'highlights' until Son and Johanson were introduced early in the second half (Maddison didn't get on until a bit later; and Porro and Van de Ven not at all). They did enough to control the game, without creating very many chances; although they got increasingly jaded and sloppy in the last quarter of the game - inviting Fulham to come after them. Tel had earlier had some good moments, and Solanke lashed over an open goal when Leno's parry fell kindly at his feet at the near-post - and then he had a good effort saved in the closing minutes. Two goals out of nothing late in the game nicked it for Fulham (Vicario will probably feel he should have been able to save the first, from Muniz). And Spurs probably feel a bit aggrieved that Bassey's blatant trip on Bergvall in the penalty area was somehow adjudged 'an accidental collision' by VAR.

Leicester weren't utterly terrible against Manchester United: they created as many decent chances as the visitors - they just couldn't convert any of them; whereas, for once, United did. (And, to be fair, they might have had 4, but for a very tight offside against Garnacho.)  Bruno Fernandes left it until the dying seconds of regular time to come up with his scoring contributionn; while his two 'assists' were unspectacular balls, supplying teammates who went on to carve brilliant solo goals - so, those who crowed about what a shrewd FPL pick he'd been (just for this gameweek) were riding their luck more than somewhat. A trio of superb individual goals and a lot of huffing-and-puffing was all this game offered us.

Recently improving Spurs should surely have been fancied for a win against Fulham, who really haven't often looked very convincing for the last few months,.... if they hadn't fielded a 'B Team'. Brentford's win over Bournemouth, away, was also a bit of a turn-up for the books! Brighton were desperately unlucky not to claim a deserved win at Manchester City. And United, on recent form, really can't have been expected to come through quite so comfortably, even against dismal Leicester. While the biggest disappointment of reasonable FPL expectations for the week was Forest's and Wolves's failure to keep clean sheets against the other two relegation-bound sides (a clean sheet is always a precarious thing to pin your hopes on, but.... these two should have been about as 'guaranteed' as you're ever going to get!). So, quite a few 'upsets' in the results this week, compounded by Uncle Ange's bizarre omission from the starting lineup of most of his best players (a decision which probably cost them the match; though we shouldn't really be surprised by this sort of vexing eccentricity from the big Aussie any more: his quirky selection policy has destroyed James Maddison's value in FPL this season...) and the surprise absence with injury of still-popular Cole Palmer. 

There were some very surprising goalscorers too. While Strand Larsen, Marmoush, and Bruno Fernandes were reasonable enough picks for the week, it was a huge surprise that Fulham managed to win, keep a clean sheet, and have Bernd Leno chip in an assist - to make him by far the week's top-scoring goalkeeper; and almost nobody will have owned any of the other 7 outfield players in this week's 'Team of the Week'. It was also notable, I thought, that this week's top scorer was so far short of the 'Team of the Week' potential maximum: even with a very handy (and VERY lucky!) Bench Boost lift of 40 points, and a near-optimum captaincy pick of Fernandes, he was still 22 points adrift of the theoretical maximum. [Kudos to him, though, for an excellent team name: Tea and Busquets.] It occurs to me (not for the first time...) that there may be some correlation between the gap between the theoretical and actual maximum in a given week, and the overall amount of 'Luck'. I may look into that further. (Though it is an investigation likely to be stymied by the fact that FPL doesn't publish weekly rankings, and so it is difficult to find top performers other than the advertised No. 1 Highest Score - which, as this week, has usually been obtained with the benefit of a bonus chip, rather than just a regular selection.)

I also noticed, in reviewing my (small) country league and a few of my larger mini-leagues, that there was a heavy skew towards the low-end of the points scale this week: many managers got substantially below the global average - while there was a very, very elongated 'tail' of high scorers at the other end of the graph: a few people did astonishingly well (were outrageously lucky!), while the majority had a spectacularly terrible week (in most cases, through no particular fault of their own). It was one of the weirdest and cruellest gameweeks I can remember for a long while - and it made me quite glad and relieved that I am no longer playing this year!

The refereeing, however, didn't turn out to be too awful this week. There were a couple of very tight offside decisions, a mildly contentious disallowed goal, and a couple of penalties wrongly turned down (one of them, yet again, for Chelsea: that is getting beyond a joke!); but, compared to the welter of outrageously bad decisions we've suffered in most weeks, that's really nothing. (Of course, there were 20% fewer games his week; that helps somewhat!)

Ultimately then, I rate this gameweek 7 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter', on unexpected selections, results, and goalscorers, rather than dire refereeing.

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  The dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now. I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season. [I worry that, if people don't do this, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you don't feel like joining me in such an emphatic gesture, please at least think about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip.

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Sheep Picks (9)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Now, I know I'm going to risk getting egg on my face with this one, but..... I'm sorry, I can't resist.

Yep, for Gameweek 29, I'm going to say..... Erling Haaland.

Quite a lot of people seem to be bringing the big Viking back into their squads for this week: he's one of the 4 or 5 most transferred-in players for the week, with just over 200,000 new owners coming in for him already (with a day left before the deadline). Now, that is probably mostly those benighted souls who are unwisely using their Free Hit this week; and not even all of them - only perhaps something between a half and two-thirds of them. Still, that's a pretty substantial phenomenon, which could have a big impact on relative outcomes this week.

I acknowledge it is dangerous for me to pooh-pooh their optimism. And I must state that I am by no means a detractor of Haaland: I admire his talent, and I believe he could be one of the most potent points-producers we've seen in FPL for a decade to come. He is the sort of player who comes up with some mighty BIG GAMES, often out of nowhere; he could produce a huge haul at any time, against anyone. So, yes - he might have a big game this weekend, and make all those 200,000 people who've just rushed in for him (and the getting on for 4 million who have - unaccountably! - been hanging on to him anyway; though many of those are probably extinct accounts, people who became disillusioned and abandoned the game during the first half of the season) feel very smug about themselves.

However, are there really any persuasive reasons to suppose that this weekend is likely to be one of those big games for our Erling? I can't see any. City's form continues to look extremely flakey; last week, against Forest, they managed to shore themselves up somewhat in defence (though they still weren't great), but at the cost of failing to produce any attacking threat at all. City are not looking like a side in contention for the Champions League places; they're looking like a side that are desperately scrapping for a chance of any European football at all next season. And now they're facing Brighton, who, although they've often been a bit defensively flakey this season, do appear to have been on a strongly improving trend again in the last few weeks. They have a brilliant - if somewhat eccentric and over-bold - young coach, and they're almost always very dangerous in attack, especially in swift counter-attacks down the flanks: i.e., exactly the kind of threat City have looked most vulnerable to this year. This is a game that is tough to call, could easily go either way; but it does not look likely to be a straightforward and emphatic win for City. If anything, on recent form, I'd make Brighton narrow favourites for a win.

So, why are so many FPL players suddenly so enthusiastic about Haaland's (non-)prospects this week? Well, in this post on the mechanics of the 'sheep' phenomenon, I warned against the malign impact of online influencers. And one of the worst of these is FPL's own anonymous tipster, 'The Scout', whose output is mostly so lame, superficial, and obvious - and occasionally so bizarrely eccentric and divorced from reality - that I increasingly suspect this content is largely or wholly AI-generated. This week, The Scout has somehow seen fit to not only recommend including Haaland in the starting eleven, but to make him captain. WTF???

Many people are feeling a little bereft and directionless, with so many top picks missing this week, including of course the man who's become most managers' almost invariable default captain this season, mighty Mo Salah. In circumstances like this, they may be even more easily suggestible than usual; and so, when The Scout comes up with his bizarre suggestion of a Haaland captaincy, The Sheep run bleating eagerly and gratefully towards it.... even if there is a sheer cliff of DISAPPOINTMENT adjacent that they might be about to run over the edge of......

Of course, yes, it might work out. But it looks to me like a very big risk - one that really does not deserve to work out.  I wouldn't even rate Haaland among the 3 best forward picks on this weeks' fixtures; in fact, I think I'd probably favour his opposite number on the visiting team, Joao Pedro, over him. But certainly, with the much easier opponents they face, and the much more convincing team and individual form behind them, Wood, Evanilson, Beto, and Strand Larsen look more promising prospects; just returned-from-injury Dominic Solanke, against an up-and-down Fulham, probably does as well. And if you're going to play a third forward (though most people are surely keeping Isak on their bench this week...), Raul, Vardy, Wissa, or perhaps even Rasmus Hojlund might be worth gambling on. But Haaland???  There is just no strong rationale for that pick - in the context of City's form, or the week's other fixtures.

Well, this one probably ended up in the mid-range of expectations: Haaland did play quite well, and did pick up an early goal (albeit only from the penalty spot) - which is rather better than some pessimists might have projected for him from this game; but City again weren't very convincing, didn't manage to dominate the game,... and didn't win - which is exactly what I, and the other 'pessimists', were correctly predicting. Some managers might feel well satisfied with a 7-point haul for their captain, but that is severely unambitious. Haaland's return here has to be viewed in the context of who else did well this weekend, and who else might have been expected to do well; he was, frankly, extremely lucky that the in-form Wood, Beto, and Evanilson - against very vulnerable opposition - somehow didn't manage to get on the scoresheet this weekend; but, among forwards, Hojlund, Muniz, and even Southampton's Onuachu did as well, Wissa did slightly better, and Strand Larsen (and, of course, his own attacking teammate Marmoush) did substantially better - which was not at all unexpected. When 3 forwards, and 14 more players in other positions (especially midfielders: there's rarely a strong argument for giving the captain's armband to a forward rather than a 'midfielder'...) all outscored him this week, you can't make much of a case for even having put him in the starting eleven, let alone making him captain.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW29

Hmm, after a few weeks of the Napoleonic battlefield.... it seems as if the rate of injuries is finally slowing up a bit: not such a terrible week this week! (Although some problems emerging from the midweek European games probably haven't been publicly acknowledged yet...)

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups, as they had been getting dangerously over-long. I'm aiming to confine myself to just the injuries to players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL. [I currently find the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information - go check that out for more comprehensive coverage.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 29?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

It looks like Trent Alexander-Arnold is the only high-owned player (in just over 30% of squads) to be ruled out this time, after having to come off in the defeat to PSG on Tuesday with an ankle injury; Arne Slot now thinks he'll be out until May.

Leny Yoro also picked up a foot injury and had to be withdrawn against Arsenal last weekend, but is only expected to be out for two or three weeks.

And Wolves's Zimbabwean midfielder Marshall Munetsi, a winter-window signing from Reims, was feeling a problem and had to come off at half-time against Everton last week; however, Vitor Pereira seems optimistic he could feature again this week. (This one might seem to be pushing the definitional limits of my 'relevant to FPL' threshold, but the big guy has made quite an impression since his introduction, with a goal and an assist in just three starts. Because nobody had any idea who he was, he was only priced at 5 million. And he'd be facing top punchbags Southampton this week, so.... there is a fair amount of interest in whether he might be available.)

Raheem Sterling, of course, is ineligible to appear for Arsenal against his parent club, Chelsea - though that is probably of zero relevance to FPL managers.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

No new bans this week (um, for maybe the first time this season?): but Will Hughes, Sasa Lukic, Anthony Gordon, Patrick Dorgu, and Matheus Cunha are still serving extended suspensions.

And, of course, the Aston Villa v Liverpool and Newcastle v Crystal Palace games have been moved because of the League Cup Final between Liverpool and Newcastle on Sunday. (Villa v Liverpool was already played - early - in Gameweek 25; and Newcastle v Palace has been rescheduled in Gameweek 32.)  Potentially missing players from FOUR teams is a bit of a speed-bump: but we've known for quite a while that these were going to be the affected teams (and I really don't see why anybody would have had any Villa players anyway...), so it should have been easy enough to move excess players from these sides out over the last few weeks, or saved up the Free Transfers to do so now (while leaving a few of the highest-priced on the bench for the week, to avoid losing money on them to the dreaded 'transfer tax' with a sell-and-buy-back). As I argued in detail a couple of days ago, there is absolutely no reason to be using the Free Hit chip this week (but it seems well over 300,000 people - so far - are doing so anyway!).

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Well, cause for not buying anyway.... Manchester City last week were, I thought, much improved; but they still couldn't mount any sort of attacking threat, and quite deservedly - if only very narrowly - lost the game. I really can't see any grounds for rising confidence in their prospects, especially with their not-particularly-easy fixture run to the end of the season. Because Salah and so many others are missing this weekend, there is a rush of enthusiasm among The Sheep - fuelled, as so often, by the FPL website's own inane (probaby AI??) pundit, The Scout - to get Haaland back (and make him captain - WTF??), if only for this one gameweek. Yes, he's good enough to produce a big week at any time. But it helps a lot when the team behind him is firing on something like all cylinders, and at the moment it's plainly not. And Brighton have been rediscovering their mojo again over the past few weeks; they must surely be favourites - if only by a little - in this fixture. Nobody seems to be making an argument for getting in Foden or DeBruyne, or Savinho or Doku, for this one; without those guys on top of their game, Big Erling isn't likely to do much.

The Sheep are starting to bolt away from Cole Palmer after his penalty 'miss' last week as well - although not in such great numbers as I would have expected, so far: only about 300,000 deserting him this week, which still leaves him with nearly 55% ownership. I think there's still a case for hanging on to him a little longer - if only because there aren't too many obvious alternatives showing themselves just at the moment.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Rashford and Asensio impressed in Europe again, and a lot of people (including Thomas Tuchel?) are perhaps getting a bit overexcited about that. It's worth remembering that was only against Club Brugge, probably the weakest team to make it into the last 16 of the Champions League. And a 10-man Brugge at that, after they'd unluckily had a defender sent off in the opening minutes (I've watched that replay half a dozen times at least, and I still can't see any contact on Watkins). In that context, it was not, I think, a super-impressive performance - by Villa generally, or by these two players. And they've got a Blank Gameweek this week, anyway.

As for the goddamned AssMan.... well, not a lot of 'excitement' this week, as all the fixtures are quite closely matched and hard to call, and none of them seem obviously likely to result in a comfortable win, with a big goal margin - even the relegation teams are drawn against fairly weak teams (or in Ipswich's case, a less prolific - though still very good - team). And there are no 'table-bonus' points available (unless you fancy Ipswich to pull off a huge upset against visiting Forest!); Spurs and Brighton are only 4 places behind their opponents this week, alas - otherwise, they would have been prime contenders. If you're stuck with that chip in play this week, I would say Spurs, Wolves, or Bournemouth are the best bets for scoring a few goals.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

DON'T FORGET The Boycott; the dratted new 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now - and I am urging everyone to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use this silly chip. 

And if you can't bring yourself to do either of those things, please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A little bit of Zen (33)

“There is only one way to happiness, and that is to cease worrying about things that are beyond the power of our will.”

Epictetus

To Free Hit, or not to....?

 

A lot of people seem to be pondering resorting to their Free Hit chip this week. Is that a good idea?

NO.

1)  You keep your Free Hit (and the second WildCard) in reserve for as long as possible, in case you might need it to deal with an unexpected emergency like a sudden multiple injury/suspension crisis (can happen at any time, but becomes more likely as the season wears on) or a last-minute postponement (of more than one game - because there are other ways of dealing with a loss of only 4, 5, 6 players...).

2)  If you're lucky enough to escape any such unexpected crises, the best use for the Free Hit - which most people plan for - is to deal with the expected crisis of a 'big' Blank Gameweek. (However, this year there is no longer a really big blank, since the FA Cup Quarter-Finals - which could potentially wipe out up to 8 EPL fixtures - no longer clash with the EPL schedule. And the newly introduced facility to store up to 5 Free Transfers also gives you much more flexibility in addressing occasional fixture speed-bumps. Hence, for many people, it might be possible to get around even Gameweek 34 - the FA Semi-Final weekend, when 3 or 4 EPL matches could be missing, and hence the occasion when most FPL managers have provisionally planned to use their FH chip - without needing the Free Hit.)

3)  If you find you don't need the Free Hit for a Blank Gameweek, or any less expected emergency, there can also be a case for using it to 'optimise' a squad for a Double Gameweek. (Indeed, many managers in the past have asserted that this is a preferable approach to using it on a Blank Gameweek; but that is a perverse delusion.)  However, as with the Blank Gameweeks, there are no longer any really 'big' Double Gameweeks in the calendar; and any Double that is 'big' enough to be worth optimising the entire squad with doubling players is more worth playing the Bench Boost on - so, the better strategy is to optimise the week before with the 2nd WildCard (if you can't do it adequately just with regular free and paid transfers). But NOTE that a Double Gameweek is really only valuable for good players/teams with good fixtures; there's no point loading up the squad with weaker players who are likely to lose twice (just because they'll get double 'appearance points'....?!).

4)  If you don't hit any unexpected crises and are able to negotiate the only two Blank Gameweeks left in the regular schedule simply with transfers... it can be quite useful to hang on to the Free Hit (and the 2nd Wildcard) to 'optimise' a team for one of the last few weeks of the season (particularly if that might help you progress in one or more of your Cup competitions).

Thus, the Free Hit is almost certainly likely to be more needful and useful in the much larger Blank Gameweek of GW34.... or the Double Gameweek(s) that spin off of that, GWs 36 and/or 33. Even those might very well be able to be navigated without needing to use a chip; in which case, it's still useful to hang on to the Free Hit for a possible emergency that may come up in the last 9 gameweeks of the season... or simply to have some fun with as a late-season 'smart bomb'.  There is NO WAY anybody should be considering using the Free Hit this early in the season, for a Blank Gameweek that involves only 4 teams.

 

Moreover, these aren't even 4 very good teams for FPL. Even Liverpool, with too much rotation in midfield, too many injuries in attack, and an overpriced defence, don't have any obvious picks apart from Mo Salah; few people have had more than two of their players at a time, and most were struggling to think of a third to bring in for their recent successive Double Gameweeks (most went for Cody Gakpo, who'd suddenly hit form; but he got injured again, so could have been relinquished before this blank weekend). Newcastle have had alarmingly yo-yo form all season, and again Isak is looking like their only must-have at the moment; Gordon's returns have been slightly disappointing this season, especially over the last few months (when he's been struggling with a few knocks, and has often looked rather tired; and now he's picked up an extended suspension....); Hall has done surprisingly well at full-back, and became a popular FPL pick... but got a season-ending injury a couple of weeks ahead of the Blank Gameweek. Palace have only recently started to come good, and still don't look strong enough to be trebled up on. And Aston Villa have struggled in the league this season, look a pretty unconvincing mid-table side (doing much better in the Champions League!): there are really none of their players that have been worth having - even for that recent Double Gameweek!

So, there was really no excuse to have ever had more than 6 or 7 players from the affected clubs; and a number of the likeliest picks have already been eliminated by injury or suspension in the last weeks before the Blank. You can carry 2 or 3 players (even 4, if one of them's a keeper) on the bench for a week (well, assuming you haven't got a terrible bench: this is why you need to keep a good bench, to give you the easy option to switch out players who are going to miss a week or two - or just face one tough fixture - without needing to burn through transfers, and possibly lose a lot of squad value on 'transfer tax' with short-term sell-and-buy-backs): and of course you'd like to hang on to players like Salah and Isak, because you'd probably lose A LOT of money on them if you sold them and immediately bought them back. Any remaining essential changes, you should be able to comfortably deal with using saved Free Transfers. 

If poor forward planning leaves you in a situation where you still have more blanking players (and other absentees through injury/suspension) than you can carry on the bench or replace with stored Free Transfers, then you have to bite the bullet and take 'hits' - pay points for extra transfers - to get around the problem. You might compromise, and consider putting out a team of only 9 or 10 players, to keep your transfer points-spend down, (It can be difficult for defenders to earn you more than 4 points.... unless you're really, really confident in their clean-sheet prospects - and that's a very precarious hope to bank on. In all other positions. however, good picks should be capable of earning you at least 4 points, hopefully 5 or 6 or more - so, taking a 'hit' to replace a non-playing first-team member, except perhaps in defence, should always be worth it.)

If, somehow, you find yourself in a really deep hole this week, you might consider instead using the 2nd Wildcard to get out of it. This chip is a bit of a luxury, something that can be held on to for emergencies, but doesn't have any compelling 'tactical' use in the way that the Free Hit does. So, although it would be preferable to be able to save it longer, there's not as much risk with using it early as there is with the Free Hit.

Time to say goodbye?

Cole Palmer has hit a bit of a lull in producitivity, and The Sheep have lost confidence in him. Actually, The Sheep were losing confidence in him after only one or two blanks: after only one return in his last 7 outings, and a 'missed' penalty against Leicester, they're positively up in arms about his supposedly 'awful form'. And there is, unfortunately, likely to be a big sell-off on him this week. In fact, he's already lost nearly 800,000 owners from his peak ownership level of nearly 7.7 million at the turn of the year, and slipped back in price from 11.4 to 11.1 million. However, that's still 600k higher than he was at the start of the year when everyone bought him, so.... you do need to be confident that you won't want him for the rest of the season. If he suddenly rediscovers his scoring boots, and you decide you want him back in a few weeks, you might have tossed away quite a bit of money. (Of course, there is also a possibility that if the stampede away from him gathers more pace, his price will soon drop below its starting level, or at least below what you're selling him for now, so the possible loss of squad value won't be a worry; that is a big gamble to take at this point, though.)

However, I think it might be worth holding on to him just a little bit longer, for these reasons:

1)  He's not 'playing badly'; his team is. But that might soon change.

Romeo Lavia's absence for the past few months has been devastating to Chelsea. He gives them much more security in the middle of the park, and allows Enzo Fernandez to play higher up the pitch, helping to give the high press more cutting edge and otten winning the ball back near the penalty area. Nicolas Jackson has also been a big miss: his finishing was vastly improved in the early part of this season, and he'd formed a great understanding with Palmer - frequently providing assists to him, as well as gratefully accepting several sublime assists himself. Noni Madueke also gives the side a much better range of attacking options - and is the other player who's most often assisted and been assisted by Palmer. All three of those players look like they could be back in action soon.

2)  He's still eager, busy, involved: there's no sign of a loss of energy or confidence.

I always counsel against listening to people who try to cite 'underlying numbers' in support of a position. But in this case, I believe it's justified. Although Palmer has had a few 'quiet' games, and a number of his stats have fallen a good way from what they've been at their best,... they're still not bad. Indeed, his overall involvement - number of touches, number of touches in and around the box, pass completion - is holding up pretty well; he's still central to Chelsea's creative efforts, on the ball more than any other player (and, if the BPS weren't such complete crap, he'd be getting 1 or 2 bonus points every week, even when they don't win; that's how influential he is in this team). He's still getting a fair few scoring chances as well. In fact, he's just been desperately unlucky on many occasions - throughout this season, really, not just during the recent 'slump': he's had efforts go narrowly wide, smack against the woodwork, or bring smart saves out of the keeper in almost every game.

3)  Chelsea's LUCK has got to change eventually, right?

Palmer didn't 'miss' that penalty. OK, he might have telegraphed which side he was putting it, and he didn't tuck it right inside the post, as he usually does; but it was cleanly hit, firm and low, well to the keeper's left - it needed a really good save to keep it out. And it was an illegal save: Hermansen was fully airborne before the ball had left Palmer's boot; the kick should have been retaken, but VAR seemingly didn't even look at that. Moreover, he should have had at least one other penalty, possibly two in that game. And Chelsea have had good penalty shouts mysteriously ignored by the officials several times this season. The overall number of penalties is well down on last year, mainly because of a more generous interpretation of the Handball Law favouring defenders. But Chelsea have been awarded barely a third as many penalties as they were last year; that is a freakish phenomenon - and very, very unjust. Surely, referees can't continue to be this 'biased' against them all season: the luck needs to start balancing out a little at some point.

4)  The fixtures are still looking quite good

Apart from Arsenal this weekend (and they've got problems of their own at the moment; I wouldn't write off Chelsea's chances of an upset win in this one), Chelsea have a pretty soft run through to the end of next month. If the team is soon back to full strength and starts firing again, there could be some big results in prospect.

5)  There's a shortage of really convincing replacements for him

Bruno Fernandes comes up with a great goal once in a while, but Manchester United's form is just awful: he feels like a bit of a risk even for the Leicester game this week, and certainly not a strong prospect for the remainder of the season. City are still looking pretty dreadful too. Arsenal are struggling in the absence of Saka and Martinelli: Trossard and Merino have not lived up to the hopes people had for their attacking potential. Brentford and Bryan Mbeumo appear to be going off the boil again (he was so anonymous in last week's game that I had to doublecheck the match reports to find out if he'd even been playing!), and they have a horrible fixture-run from now on. Son and Bowen haven't really been lighting any fires. Jota's perpetually injured, Diaz is too much of a minutes-risk. and Szoboszlai's a bit too up-and-down in his FPL returns. Though Iwobi, in particular, often looks dangerous, Fulham have been dreadfully inconsistent. And the hour of the Bournemouth attacking midfielders may have passed, now that Evanilson has resumed the primary goalscorer duties there (Kluivert still looks in white-hot form; but the argument in favour of Ouattara or Semenyo, or Brooks or Tavernier, has abruptly faded). Anthony Gordon's been looking jaded, exhausted lately; and now he's picked up a three-game ban. Only Mitoma, Eze, and Hudson-Odoi/Elanga/Gibbs-White have recently staked a claim to inclusion in FPL squads; but none of the 'big name' midfield prospects are looking any better than Palmer at the moment.

I confess I am really torn on this (well, I would be, if I were still playing; I quit in protest at the absurdity of the 'Assstant Manager' chip - that detachment perhaps enables me to view this situation a little more calmly). The drop-off in Palmer's points returns is certainly concerning, especially for such an expensive player. And I think that, if Chelsea don't start to turn things around in the next 2 or 3 games, the case for dropping him will become overwhelmng. But it's not quite that yet. I suspect people who've dropped him now might soon find cause to regret the decision.

Luck-o-Meter (28)

Forest v City was a predictably cagey affair. The visiting side looked much better in defence than they have recently, but toothless and unimaginative going forward - though Forest's organised and determined defence can claim a lot of the credit for that. A goalless draw was looking the likeliest result throughout; though, for me, Callum Hudson-Odoi's brilliant solo goal (with a possible 'Assist of the Season' from Morgan Gibbs-White!) claimed a narrow win that was just about deserved on the balance of play. And as Forest visibly tired over the last 25 minutes or so, they had to dig deep to survive a final wave of pressure. And maybe things would have gone differently if Nico Rodriguez's stunning early drive had sneaked in, rather than clipping the outside of the post; or if Mateo Kovacic's snap volley effort in the dying minutes hadn't corkscrewed just beyond the top right corner of the woodwork... (And it is an absolute travesty that the outstanding Ola Aina got no love at all from the BPS ratings in this one!!)

Brighton looked terribly sluggish and disjointed in the first half, and conceded the lead to a brilliant breakaway from Iwobi and Raul. But apart from that, visitors Fulham barely asserted themselves in the match, and looked very flakey in defence. The second half was one-way traffic for Brighton, and although they left it very, very late to claim the winner from the penalty spot, it seemed entirely deserved - after they'd had two earlier efforts ruled out because their young wingers, Minteh and Adringra, can't always time their runs down the flanks properly... and an incident in which Estupinan appeared to have been bundled over in the box was dismissed by VAR in oddly cursory fashion (again, that might have been the right decision; but there's no consistency about how VAR is operating, how much time it's giving to decisions, and - most crucially - how it's communicating those decisions to the on-pitch referee or to the public; and that is undermining everyone's confidence in the reliability of officiating in the EPL).

Liverpool, not unexpectedly, after their heroic exertions against PSG a few days ago, looked a bit jaded and conservative in the first half - and not having their manager in the dugout to bark instructions at them probably didn't help either. But, yet again, Arne Slot impressed with his in-game management, making three half-time changes to inject fresh legs and more aggression, and re-energizing the whole team with a stern pep talk at the interval. While it's always nice to see an underdog get a break and (briefly) threaten an upset, Southampton's opening goal was rather fortunate: to me, Alisson appeared to have been impeded by the Southampton player falling to the ground next to him - his legs got entangled around the Liverpool keeper's right calf, effectively 'tripping' him and holding him back for a fraction of a second as he struggled to recover the loose ball. In general, I feel that keepers are 'over-protected' in this sort of situation; and it would have been very hard on Southampton to rule the goal out for this; however, there was certainly a question to be answered there, and it was yet again a failing on the part of VAR that this was seemingly not even looked at. There was no question about either of the Liverpool penalties, though. But Mo Salah fans will be miffed that their man didn't claim a hattrick, as Luis Diaz squared the ball to him in the middle of the six-yard box, but it came to him awkwardly high, and he sliced the volleyed attempt well wide of the gaping net.

Ismaila Sarr's late winner seemed just about deserved, although, without their talismanic forward Mateta for the week, Palace looked mostly quite lethargic and disconnected, barely creating a chance - apart from two, remarkably similar, fluke attempts from Eze, where hopeful shots from the edge of the box were half-blocked and looped high in the air towards the far corner: the first drifting just wide, the second finger-tipped to safety by Alex Palmer. Apart from that, their biggest chance came when Palmer - mostly excellent again - smashed a clearance straight into the lurking Nketiah a few yards away, but the ball ricocheted safely wide instead of into the gaping goal. Ipswich actually had rather more of the ball, and generated nearly all the game's best moves: Henderson had to make sharp saves from Philogene, Enciso, and Delap. If they can keep on playing like this, they might yet have a slim chance of scrabbling above Wolves to save themselves from the drop; but that does look to be the only issue still in doubt in the relegation struggle this year. (On the other hand, Jacob Greaves did seem extraordinarily lucky to escape a straight red card for his tug on Sarr just before half-time: the contact was pretty minimal, but once it's been adjudged a foul.... how is it not a 'denial of a goal-scoring opportunity' when the opponent is 20 yards from goal with no other defender anywhere near him??)

Usually, Villa look dead on their feet after playing in Europe; but this time it was the home side, Brentford, who looked out-of-gas, despite not having the excuse of having played midweek. Bryan Mbeumo, majestic for so much of this season, was literally invisible on the BBC highlights, not getting namechecked, or even entering shot even once; their other attacking lynchpins Wissa and Damsgaard only just got themselves noticed, and Christian Norgaard was shuffling around like a zombie, surely carrying some sort of injury. Villa were able to completely dominate the first half, without playing well. Brentford roused themselves to make a bit more of an effort after the break, and were desperately unlucky not to get something out of the match: with Lewis-Potter smashing an effort against the foot of the post, and Schade twice having stone-cold penalty shouts ignored by the ref and the VAR (the first one, you could at least see an argument that two Villa players had collided with each other, and then one of them had fallen into the Brentford man 'by accident' as a result of this - but that shouldn't actually make any difference, when you knock a player off his feet; and the second push was absolutely clearcut). The ref just seemed to have it in for Schade, as he also refused to see an obvious foul against him which gave Villa their best chance of the match with a late breakaway for Watkins, although he then completely muffed his attempt to chip the keeper. Watkins's - and Villa's - luck was a bit of a mixed bag in this one: his opening - ultimately only - goal in the match was a bit of a fluke, skidding off Collins's shin and straight through Flekken's legs, where it should have been quite easily saved on any other trajectory; but then less than a minute later, his flying breakaway to set up Morgan Rogers with a second (a much better move, and a 'goal' that would have been more worthy of deciding the points) was ruled offside by a toe or a kneecap - 'correct', but not the kind of decision we like to see given. And then perhaps Nathan Collins was lucky to escape a straight red card for his wild two-footed challenge in the dying moments of the game; he did get something of the ball and not too much of the man, but, even so, 'scissoring' a player's standing leg, from behind, is not good - and if the ref had pulled out the red card, no-one could have had much complaint about it.

Wolves and Everton were two more teams far below their best yesterday. Everton had most of the ball in the first half, but didn't manufacture many chances. In the second, both sides roused themselves to produce more of a tit-for-tat ding-dong struggle, but still without many high-quality opportunities. Harrison's opener needed a double deflection off the blocking defenders to get beyond Sa, and Pickford will probably feel disappointed that he wasn't able to fall on Munetsi's fairly gentle side-foot finish (although it was a lovely assist from Bellegarde that played him in behind). The recently infallible Beto failing to  convert two good chances in the game, one in each half, is perhaps the biggest surprise - and FPL disappointment! - in a fairly drab encounter.

Cole Palmer 'missed' a penalty??!!  With his record from the spot so far, that's probably worth 2 of my 'luck' points on its own (these in the negative direction, for the 57% or so of FPL managers that owned Cole)! To be fair, it was hardly a 'miss': he hit it cleanly, firm and low - just not as close to the post as he usually does, and the keeper happened to guess right and get down very smartly to it to pull off an excellent save. Although... whenever a keeper gets across that quickly to a pen, you have to wonder if he actually moved too early. And my initial impression here was that Hermansen moved way early; and on the replays, it looked as if he had both feet clearly in the air when Palmer struck the ball. This is yet another instance when VAR should certainly have taken a long hard look at the incident, but we were not informed that they'd given the matter any thought at all. And good grief, poor Palmer had already had a pretty clearcut penalty somehow denied in the opening minutes. Maybe he went down a bit too dramatically, but the defender plainly clipped him from behind, and in fact drove his knee into the back of Palmer's thigh, which is apt to cause a dead-leg. Enzo had another penalty shout in the second-half as well, which again didn't seem to really be considered by the VAR boys: the non-argument here was apparently that he'd tripped himself and was already falling before the contact, but how is that relevant?  The defender flung a leg out and clipped his shin - penalty! It is utterly ridiculous the number of strong - or often downright undeniable - penalties that Chelsea are not being awarded this season.

After a weekend of incredibly drab, listless games, Spurs v Bournemouth was finally a burst of excitement. It is baffling how Spurs somehow salvaged a point from a game in which they were so comprehensively outclassed: Bournemouth hit a post, brought a string of agile saves out of Vicario, and had a superb breakaway goal ruled out - correctly, but rather ponderously - for offside: their 2-0 advantage probably should have been at least twice that before.... Pape Sarr produced a worldie from distance out of nothing, and then Son won a rather soft penalty from Kepa's challenge late in the game. Yes, the goalie did make some contact; but it was very, very slight, and he was trying to pull out of it, while the Korean was obviously looking to hang his legs into the sliding keeper's torso... and the ball was long gone; Son's scoring chance had evaporated, and he was only thinking about the penalty. It was certainly a justifiable decision, but.... if the referee had not given it, I don't see how VAR could have overruled him; it was the kind of call we regularly see going either way.

The Manchester United v Arsenal clash was also actually quite a blast - though perhaps more for the subtle tactical battle than end-to-end thrills. The main points of controversy were Anthony Taylor forcing the Arsenal wall a long way back for the free-kick from which Bruno scored the opener (you expect there to be a few percent plus or minus in these things, but this error was obvious to the naked eye; even with the Arsenal players furtively shuffling a bit over the foam-spray line, there were still a whopping 12% or so further back than they should have been); however, I think most of the blame is still on Raya, who (despite being admittedly unsighted by some clever shenanigans in front of him) was always way too far over in his starting position, and (never mind that he only saw it very late) way too slow in trying to get across (he did make some fantastic saves later in the game, though, really kept Arsenal in the match; again, it is a travesty that the BPS didn't give him more recognition); Bruno hit it pretty sweetly, but it was nowhere near the top corner - really should have been kept out. The other headscratcher moment was United's young debutant defender Ayden Heaven getting away with a handball claim: yes, the ball flew from head to hand quite quickly, but.... not with power; and it was his own header, cushioning the ball downwards in front of him; and he did somehow manage to touch the ball THREE TIMES with his lower arms, with the end result that he brought the ball nicely under control at his feet. These calls are always going to be very subjective, but that was a penalty all day long for me.

The Monday night game at West Ham ended up being a nail-biter; despite visiting Newcastle having pretty much dominated (apart from that bizarre moment when Soucek slashed one over the bar in the opening minute), they weren't able to convert their superiority into goals - mainly thanks to a very sharp display from Areola (who was somehow only credited with 3 saves, and didn't manage even 1 bonus point - WTF??). There was a slight controversy aronnd the Guimaraes goal, with West Ham fans feeling that Kilman had been pushed to the floor by Isak - but the contact was extremely minimal, and Kilman looked to be guilty of making a meal of it to try to con the ref. But yes, again, we've seen decisions like this given.

With two or three penalties and (arguably) a couple of sendings-off not given on Saturday, that was already looking a bit of a rocky week for VAR. So, I provisionally rated this gameweek a 5 out of 10. But goddamn, after a Palmer penalty 'miss' (and two other good penalty shouts for Chelsea turned down; and one for Arsenal...), I think this is up to another 9 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'. Really, you only have to look at how silly the 'Team of the Week' is, with Salah being the only member who's owned by more than about 2% of FPL managers.

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  The dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now. I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season. [I worry that, if people don't do this, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you don't feel like joining me in such an emphatic gesture, please at least think about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip.

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW28

 

Oh dear, with a busy couple of weeks since the last EPL gameweek, we have been fairly deluged with suspensions and injury doubts following the 4th Round of the FA Cup.... and the European competitions getting feisty....

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups, as they have been getting dangerously over-long recently! I'm going to confine myself to just the injuries to players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL. [I currently find the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information - go check that out for more comprehensive coverage.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 28?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Jean-Philippe Mateta is probably the biggest blow, as he was becoming a popular striker pick in FPL - despite next week's 'blank' - because of Palace's impressive recent form, and soft fixtures against Southampton and Leicester up next. Amazingly, he was not considered to have suffered a concussion from Milwall keeper Liam Roberts's outrageous kung-fu kick to the side of his head, but his left ear was so badly torn up by his opponent's studs that he's likely to be out for a least a couple of weeks while that heals.

Kaoru Mitoma limped off in the Cup tie against Newcastle with a knee problem, but scans apparently revealed nothing too seriously wrong, and he's now expected to be able to take part this week.

Kieran Trippier (not that he's featured much this year anyway....) also had to go off in that game with a back injury, And Lewis Hall had already picked up an injury in training ahead of that - now revealed to be a broken bone in his foot which will keep him out for the rest of the season. Alexander Isak also limped out of the Brighton game, but it looks like he's going to be OK.

More woes too for Spurs, as Dominic Solanke, getting his first run-out after injury, had to go off with a 'knock' in the Europa League game against Alkmaar on Thursday, and Rodrigo Betancur, who's apparently been playing with a foot injury for a while, is now expected to be unavailable for two or three weeks. However, central defenders Cristian Romero and Micky Van de Ven could be close to a comeback.

Sammie Szmodics suffered a recurrence of his ankle injury in the FA Cup defeat to Forest, and has had to have surgery; likely to miss the rest of the season. Kalvin Phillips, however, who was suffering with a calf-muscle problem for the past couple of weeks, has now returned to training.

Cody Gakpo is still (again...) suffering with an ankle problem, and was omitted from the squad for Wednesday's game against PSG.

Nathan Ake also suffered a broken bone in his foot in the Cup game against Plymouth and is likely to miss the rest of the season - which leaves City very short of defenders.

And Fulham's Adama Traore is a doubt after twisting his ankle in the Cup tie against Manchester United.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Will Hughes and Sasa Lukic are starting two-match bans for picking up their 10th yellow cards of the season in their last Premier League outing.

And Patrick Dorgu, Anthony Gordon, and Matheus Cunha are suspended for the next three games for 'violent conduct' offences in the FA Cup last weekend. (Cunha's ban seems likely to be extended, as the FA filed an additional 'misconduct' charge against him in relation to the incident on Wednesday. And, having let him off so ridiculously lightly last time, they might be less inclined towards leniency now....)

And Tariq Lamptey is out for one game after receiving two yellow cards in the Cup game against Newcastle.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Dear, oh dear - well, most of the Manchester United team, really (does anyone still have any of their players - even Bruno??); but especially Andre Onana, whose confidence is looking pretty shotl; I rather fear that being forced to play behind a different back three almost every single week has eroded his understanding with his defensive partners and is leading him into increasingly panicky decision-making.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Cup competitions aren't usually much of a guide to League form anyway. And I can't think of anyone who was that eye-catching on the last EPL weekend, or since.

As for the goddamned AssMan.... no strong table-bonus opportunities this week: Leicester, Ipswich, and Southampton currently look to have no chance of even beating each other, let alone anyone higher up the table. A lot of the so-called 'experts' seem to be tipping Graham Potter, though without any obvious reason for doing so; even at home, I don't much fancy West Ham's chances against Newcastle. With the likes of Van de Ven, Romero, and Solanke poised for a possible return, there might be a case for taking a chance now on Ange Postecoglou, with Bournemouth, Fulham, and Chelsea all comfortably above them in the table, but looking very beatable.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

DON'T FORGET The Boycott; the dratted new 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now - and I am urging everyone to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use this silly chip. 

And if you can't bring yourself to do either of those things, please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A little bit of Zen (32)

"Success is no accident. It is hard work, perseverance, learning, studying, sacrifice - and most of all, love of what you are doing or learning to do." 

Edson Arantes do Nascimento (Pelé) 

BETTER THINGS to aim at

I mentioned this morning that I grow extremely weary of the tiresome and misguided obsession among so many FPL managers with RANK. It really tells you nothing useful about how good your decision-making in the game is, only.... how much luckier than you a certain number of people have been. (Not everyone who's above you is only there because of luck, of course. But the sorry truth - a cold, cruel statistical inevitability - is that the higher you are in the overall ranking, the greater the percentage is likely to be of the people above you who have simply been luckier than you. If you don't want to feel abused by luck, you should aim for the lower end of the rankings....!)

So, what can you focus on instead, to give you some sense of your achievement or progress in the game?

Well, I already touched on this point in a couple of very early posts on this blog. 

First, I outlined here what various points thresholds indicate about your relative ability. (Points totals are slightly more reliable as a measure of progress for individuals because, for most of us [though not, by any means, everyone!], 'luck' more or less balances out over the course of a season. Final rank position, however, can still vary enormously, because the number of total players may be more or less from one year to another, the scope for luck to have a distorting impact may be more in one year than another [there was a HUGE, unprecedented number of injuries last year, for instance; and there have been some particularly bad refereeing decisions this season, as well as a somewhat 'unexpected' meltdown for the champions, City...; things like this can make a big difference, but much more so in some years than others]; and there may, for undiscernible reasons, just be far more hugely lucky people in one year than another - so, your overall rank may differ considerably from one year to another, even though your points tally is remarkably similar.)

Second, I suggested that in addition to tracking your progress against points 'milestones' (or just seeking to regularly beat the global average), it is better to focus on small mini-leagues against people you know, or at least on more modest-sized 'public leagues' where you can develop some sense of familiarity with your closest rivals (studying their selections and performance over time, such that you start to build up an awareness of the quirks and preferences in their approach to the game, their strengths and weaknesses). Pitting yourself against familiar opponents gives you a fuller sense of how you are performing - and a deeper satisfaction if you are indeed doing well. But, ideally, it should also help you to become less self-obsessed about the game - able to applaud a rival's success when they do better than you, able to recognise why it has happened. (If they really have made better choices than you, that is. And if they appear to have just been very lucky, learn to laugh it off. That should mean that next year, if you really are the better player, you will prevail.)  [My principal rivalry within the game is against an old college buddy. He's not actually very good at it. And so it can be rather galling when he does much better than me in his weekly points tallies. He has - once - even managed to beat me over a season... more by luck than anything else. But I am genuinely happy for him when he achieves these successes, whether they're fully deserved or not. My chief aim in competing against him is to encourage and goad and cajole him into paying more attention, so that he can gradually improve in the game... and eventually triumph in his small work league (which will be no mean achievement, because it does include a couple of rather impressive managers).]

A corollary to this latter point is that you might also try to focus more on 'head-to-head' battles with particular rivals, rather than overall points. I've never been bothered to enter any head-to-head leagues myself; but I do in practice keep a tally of my week-by-week performance against a few key rivals. And that, I think, is a more accurate measure of your overall ability than your relative points totals might be. (That college buddy of mine who managed to beat me a season or two back on the points totals was still well behind on the weekly head-to-head...)  A few stupendously lucky weeks where someone achieves a massive points advantage over you can effectively decide the whole season. (I noted in another early post that the quest to be a global No. 1 at season's end, or even in the top 10,000 or so, is pretty much over after the first few weeks, if you don't get off to a flying start... A genuine flying start, that is; not just faking it by blowing all your chips in the first few weeks!)

I have also ventured the - somewhat 'controversial' - view that your growth in squad value is actually a very reliable measure of your basic competence in the game. The danger with it is, of course, that you can try to focus solely on growing squad value - and that will probably be to the detriment of your points total or your head-to-head successes. But as an organic by-product of how you play the game from week-to-week, I think a healthy and consistent growth in squad value each year can be a very telling marker of your ability in the game. [Well, I used to think that. My confidence in the idea has been slightly shaken this season and last by the increasing volatility in the transfer market, by the sudden price drops being initiated by the sheep losing confidence and starting to bale on a good player after just two or three blank weeks....]

In a busy spell of early posting around the beginning of this 2024-2025 season, I also suggested some tips for gauging how good your initial squad selection is; and you can apply these same principles on an ongoing basis throughout the season to check if you've been keeping your squad in the best possible shape.

And finally, I produced a list of recommendations for how to get better at the game. I would suggest that if you examine your thought process around selection decisions etc. each week in reference to each of these categories.... you will develop a sense of whether you're getting better at the game, and why... regardless of what's going on with your points total or your ranking!

Yes, sorry, this post has ended up being just a 'greatest hits' compilation of links to earlier posts. I may at some point try to distil these observations - and perhaps a few novel ones too - into a simpler and more useful list. 

But I do earnestly believe that all of these things I've touched on above are more important than points or rank. Yes, really. 

This is the beginning of 'enlightenment': play the game not to reach arbitrary external goals, but for the innate sense of satisfaction to be derived from it, from the expense of thought and effort, from the grappling with the challenge, from the constant striving to be better.

The main PROBLEM with FPL

People want to measure their success in the game of Fantasy Premier League. But there is no reliable gauge of your success. 

Your points total is primarily a measure of how lucky you've been.

Your rank is primarily a measure of how lucky everyone else has been, in relation to you.

The aim of the game should be to exercise and develop your skill in making the best squad selections (and 'chip strategy' decisions, etc.). But your points returns are not an accurate reflection of your skill and good judgement: they depend very largely on pure luck. (And, as I pointed out the other day, with the help of Youtube science educator Derek Muller, the effect of even small amounts of luck on final outcomes can be HUGE...) Very bad FPL managers can sometimes do extraordinarily well. Very good FPL managers can often fare very badly.... It is a cruel and unjust game.

We need to find other ways of gauging our progress in the game of FPL, other ways of taking satisfaction in it.

Perhaps a useful place to start is..... focusing less on how good you think you are, and concentrating instead on pursuing constant improvement.

Another take on 'LUCK'

 

I've been following Derek Muller's excellent science channel, Veritasium, on Youtube for several years, but I only just stumbled upon this video of his from 4 or 5 years ago on the role of 'LUCK' - in sports, and life. 

Just over 3 minutes in, he has a fascinating example of a mathematical simulation he ran of the competitive selection process for NASA astronaut training - which apparently demonstrates that, with even a very small element of 'luck' at play in the process, at least 80% of those finally selected (overcoming daunting odds of around 1,700-1!!) will have displaced more able candidates by virtue of that little bit of crucial luck.

He doesn't go into a lot of detail about his simulation. I suspect that it involved multiple 'elimination rounds', rather as with a knockout cup competition - which would tend to cumulatively exaggerate the impact of the participants' luck. Nevertheless, it is a striking example of how great an effect luck can have in competitive outcomes.

And he was only allowing a weighting of up to 5% for the 'luck' factor in his selection tests. I think in Fantasy Premier League.... it's probably at least 50%!

I hate it when people naively brag about their rank in the game. Your rank proves nothing about how smart or capable you are. You can't get into the top 100,000 or so without having a substantial amount of good luck. And statistics would suggest that the great majority of that top 100,000 are there mostly through luck (that 80/20 split comes up everywhere.....), at the expense of far more capable managers.

A little bit of Zen (31)

“We should not strive to be better than others, but to be our best selves.”

Kosho Uchiyama