Luck-o-Meter (29)

Although it's been known all season that GW29 would be a Blank Gameweek for (probably) four sides, and for the past month or so it's been known what those blanking sides would be,.... still a Blank Gameweek is itself a huge hassle to navigate, and - arguably - a major element of 'luck' impacting this week's outcomes in all sorts of ways. However, with relatively few top picks affected, it really should have been possible to dodge around this one using just regular transfers (and risking an empty bench, full of rested blanking players, for one week); but in combination with injuries, drops in form, and a number of promising fixtures that looked possibly ripe for exploitation this week, many people were tempted to use their Free Hit (or theie Second WildCard( this weekend. If they chose well, that almost certainly would have given them a substantial lift over everyone who was getting by without a chip. But the fact is that the Free Hit, in particular (but possibly also the WildCard as well), is likely to be much more valuable in the bigger blank week of GW34 (or, if not there, in the one or two adjacent Double Gameweeks we're expecting to result from that); you can't yet say you've done 'well' from using one of the rebuild chips, because they're not a one-week deal; they have to be evaluated also in terms of 'opportunity cost', of the points potentially lost in other weeks when they might have worked better. But with so many people getting a points lift from this ploy (and a good number having the 'Assistant Manager' in play too, though, really, god knows why) weekly points tallies and rankings mean even less than usual.

Everton and West Ham both seemed somewhat below their best, and produced a fairly dour encounter. Everton stepped things up at the end, and looked like they really wanted to snatch the late win - nearly did so, with Carlos Alcaraz screwing an effort just wide in injury time. The penalty denied to Beto in the first half was fair enough.

Ipswich again showed some threat going forward, but were often woeful at the back. The big surprises here were really that Forest didn't score more, that they didn't keep a clean sheet (two superb goals from Ipswich, late in the game, out of nothing....), and who the goals fell to. There really was no reason for any FPL manager to prefer Anthony Elanga (who hasn's scored, or come close to doing so, in nearly three months, and has never scored a brace in the Premier League before) over creative lynchpin Morgan Gibbs-White or recently dangerous again Callum Hudson-Odoi; or to prefer Milenkovic (his chance was set up by a miscued defensive header from Delap going right to him) over any of the other defenders; or for supposing that this season's 'Mr Reliable', Chris Wood, would somehow not get on the scoresheet in such an easy win. So, even though the general result was much as predicted, there was still a lot of FPL 'luck' in play here! But at least there doesn't appear to have been anything for the referee to mess up in this one.

Despite the advantage of an early penalty (and an early opposition goal being ruled out for Mitoma; one of those decisions that was probably 'correct' on a strict application of the rules, but nevertheless feels harsh - I don't think Ortega had the ball fully under control in his hands, and he kind of 'dropped' the ball on to the forward's head rather than being dispossessed by a 'challenge'...), and then taking the lead again wih a wonder-strike from Marmoush, City were never really able to get on top in this game. As I'd expected, Brighton often looked able to cut them open at will on the counter, and had way the best of the chances - really should have been able to win the game by 2 or 3 goals. The opening penalty may have been a little harsh; Webster must presumably have caught Marmoush with his trailing leg, because the leading foot wasn't anywhere near him; but that was not clearly visible on the angle shown on the BBC. Baleba was possibly a bit lucky to escape a red card for a heavy contact on Gvardiol (VAR presumably thought that he had 'accidentally' trodden on the City man's ankle rather than catching him with a reckless follow-through; but the reasoning was never publicly explained). And Pep was very unhappy about Doku getting a card for 'diving'; I have mixed feelings on that one - a 'diving' charge was harsh, since he legitimately needed to jump over Van Hecke's high-speed sliding challenge; but you can jump over a player's legs without nearly doing a somersault...  In FPL terms, it's more of a shock that the mild-mannered Kaoru Mitoma somehow picked up a yellow card, leaving him with only 1 point... in a game in which he might easily have been 'Man of the Match'!!

Siuthampton v Wolves was another game like the Ipswich one where a dominant visiting side failed to fully capitalise on their superiority, and somehow conceded a goal out of nothing, to make the match seem closer than it had been - and to frustrate the legions of FPL managers who had been hoping for a clean sheet somewhere from one of these teams against the relegation-bound sides.

Bournemouth v Brentford was another topsy-turvy one, where the home side appeared to have done more than enough to win the game comfortably, but couldn't capitalise on all the great chances they had.... and then they fell asleep in defending a corner and a long throw to toss the game away.

In a dreadfully drab game at Arsenal, the home side dominated without creating many decent chances. Roibert Sanchez just about justified his - to many people, questionable - selection with a couple of very smart reaction stops, clawing shots back from his line.... but continued to look a liability every time he had the ball at his feet. Marc Cucurella was very unlucky not to continue his short scoring streak, when his crisp half-volley somehow squirmed through Raya's hands, and spun agonisingly. across the face of the goal, going only inches wide of the far post. And Chelsea still can't get a penalty! Here, Saliba clearly stomped on Nkunku's heel with a follow-through and brought him down; any argument that he might have got something of the ball (he didn't, as far as I could see) should have been irrelevant, since he'd clearly kicked his opponent. But the biggest surprise - and hence 'luck'-factor - here was the surprise last-minute omission with a previously unannounced training injury of the (still massively owned) Cole Palmer.

Fulham v Spurs was another dour, unexciting encounter. Spurs were predictably hamstrung by Postecoglou's unfathomable decision to rest most of his best players (OK, they had just come through a tough European tie on Thursday; but they've got two-and-a-half weeks to get over that - some of them are not even involved in the internationals, and they're out of the FA Cup...): the BBC struggled to find any 'highlights' until Son and Johanson were introduced early in the second half (Maddison didn't get on until a bit later; and Porro and Van de Ven not at all). They did enough to control the game, without creating very many chances; although they got increasingly jaded and sloppy in the last quarter of the game - inviting Fulham to come after them. Tel had earlier had some good moments, and Solanke lashed over an open goal when Leno's parry fell kindly at his feet at the near-post - and then he had a good effort saved in the closing minutes. Two goals out of nothing late in the game nicked it for Fulham (Vicario will probably feel he should have been able to save the first, from Muniz). And Spurs probably feel a bit aggrieved that Bassey's blatant trip on Bergvall in the penalty area was somehow adjudged 'an accidental collision' by VAR.

Leicester weren't utterly terrible against Manchester United: they created as many decent chances as the visitors - they just couldn't convert any of them; whereas, for once, United did. (And, to be fair, they might have had 4, but for a very tight offside against Garnacho.)  Bruno Fernandes left it until the dying seconds of regular time to come up with his scoring contributionn; while his two 'assists' were unspectacular balls, supplying teammates who went on to carve brilliant solo goals - so, those who crowed about what a shrewd FPL pick he'd been (just for this gameweek) were riding their luck more than somewhat. A trio of superb individual goals and a lot of huffing-and-puffing was all this game offered us.

Recently improving Spurs should surely have been fancied for a win against Fulham, who really haven't often looked very convincing for the last few months,.... if they hadn't fielded a 'B Team'. Brentford's win over Bournemouth, away, was also a bit of a turn-up for the books! Brighton were desperately unlucky not to claim a deserved win at Manchester City. And United, on recent form, really can't have been expected to come through quite so comfortably, even against dismal Leicester. While the biggest disappointment of reasonable FPL expectations for the week was Forest's and Wolves's failure to keep clean sheets against the other two relegation-bound sides (a clean sheet is always a precarious thing to pin your hopes on, but.... these two should have been about as 'guaranteed' as you're ever going to get!). So, quite a few 'upsets' in the results this week, compounded by Uncle Ange's bizarre omission from the starting lineup of most of his best players (a decision which probably cost them the match; though we shouldn't really be surprised by this sort of vexing eccentricity from the big Aussie any more: his quirky selection policy has destroyed James Maddison's value in FPL this season...) and the surprise absence with injury of still-popular Cole Palmer. 

There were some very surprising goalscorers too. While Strand Larsen, Marmoush, and Bruno Fernandes were reasonable enough picks for the week, it was a huge surprise that Fulham managed to win, keep a clean sheet, and have Bernd Leno chip in an assist - to make him by far the week's top-scoring goalkeeper; and almost nobody will have owned any of the other 7 outfield players in this week's 'Team of the Week'. It was also notable, I thought, that this week's top scorer was so far short of the 'Team of the Week' potential maximum: even with a very handy (and VERY lucky!) Bench Boost lift of 40 points, and a near-optimum captaincy pick of Fernandes, he was still 22 points adrift of the theoretical maximum. [Kudos to him, though, for an excellent team name: Tea and Busquets.] It occurs to me (not for the first time...) that there may be some correlation between the gap between the theoretical and actual maximum in a given week, and the overall amount of 'Luck'. I may look into that further. (Though it is an investigation likely to be stymied by the fact that FPL doesn't publish weekly rankings, and so it is difficult to find top performers other than the advertised No. 1 Highest Score - which, as this week, has usually been obtained with the benefit of a bonus chip, rather than just a regular selection.)

I also noticed, in reviewing my (small) country league and a few of my larger mini-leagues, that there was a heavy skew towards the low-end of the points scale this week: many managers got substantially below the global average - while there was a very, very elongated 'tail' of high scorers at the other end of the graph: a few people did astonishingly well (were outrageously lucky!), while the majority had a spectacularly terrible week (in most cases, through no particular fault of their own). It was one of the weirdest and cruellest gameweeks I can remember for a long while - and it made me quite glad and relieved that I am no longer playing this year!

The refereeing, however, didn't turn out to be too awful this week. There were a couple of very tight offside decisions, a mildly contentious disallowed goal, and a couple of penalties wrongly turned down (one of them, yet again, for Chelsea: that is getting beyond a joke!); but, compared to the welter of outrageously bad decisions we've suffered in most weeks, that's really nothing. (Of course, there were 20% fewer games his week; that helps somewhat!)

Ultimately then, I rate this gameweek 7 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter', on unexpected selections, results, and goalscorers, rather than dire refereeing.

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  The dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now. I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season. [I worry that, if people don't do this, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you don't feel like joining me in such an emphatic gesture, please at least think about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip.

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip