Dilemmas of the Week - GW20

 

At least we're now into the second half of the season, and so past the first threshold for 'totting-up' suspensions: anyone who's still on 4 yellows or less should be safe for a good long time now (although if they reach 10 before GW33, they'll receive a 2-game ban; not sure why there's a cut-off in GW32 - players can just kick lumps out of each other with impunity in the last six weeks of the season??). But the fixture mayhem (4 more matches crammed into the next two weeks; although 1 of them is FA Cup, not EPL) and the toll of the dire weather continue unabated, and so we're still likely to be troubled by a high incidence of injuries and rest rotations over the coming month or so.

In addition, we're now into the winter 'transfer window', so we might imminently see some new players coming into the league (I imagine City and Arsenal, and probably also Manchester United are looking for a couple of key signings). But the loss of existing players, and the potential disruption ensuing from uncertainty and bad feeling around potential moves, could have even more impact than exciting new arrivals. I imagine Cunha is on a lot of people's shopping-lists, some of them outside the Premier League. And while Real are said to be trying to get Alexander-Arnold to pre-sign for a free move in June, I'm pretty certain they'd like to get him immediately to cover for Dani Carvajal's season-long absence; and Liverpool would surely have to take even a token 10 or 15 million for him now, rather than nothing in 5 months' time. We've seen a number of times in recent years that when negotiations around a possible move get tense, managers often prefer to remove the player in question from their squads; that is a big hazard to watch out for over the coming month. There may also be some psychological knock-on effects elsewhere; if Gyokeres really is finally headed to Arsenal, for example, there could be a danger that the likes of Jesus, Trossard, or Havertz could be distracted, disaffected by concerns about what that might mean for their prospects of a regular start.

Oh, also, the League Cup Semi-Finals are coming up this midweek, so there might be a few additional rotations to fear from Liverpool. Arsenal, Newcastle, and Spurs.

So, we have a particularly tricky month ahead, which - quite apart from any other considerations (like all the much more useful, necessary, things you might have to use it for later in the season) - makes this week, or any time this month, a very bad time to play the 2nd Wildcard.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 20?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

The only really big news of the last gameweek was Jarrod Bowen having to go off near the end of the game against Liverpool - with what is apparently a fractured metatarsal, likely to keep him out for at least 3 or 4 weeks. (He's owned by less than 6%, but had seemed poised for a big jump in popularity after a few strong performances recently - as many FPL managers are still desperately casting around for the best 'Saka replacement'.)

Destiny Udogie had to go off in the game against Wolves with a hamstring problem, and looks likely to be out for a little while. With Ben Davies still not fit, Djed Spence, back from suspension. will presumably deputise again at left-back - but Spurs are getting very short of defenders for any position.

Joe Gomez also hobbled off in that game with what looked like quite a serious hamstring injury; Slot has said he expects he could be out for weeks. With no still no timeline announced for the possible return of Ibrahima Konate, Jarrell Quansah finally seems likely to get a little run in the side.

Lukasz Fabianski's concussion the other week must have been quite severe, since he seems to be getting a very slow 'Graduated Return to Play' under the protocols, and is said to be unlikely to start again before mid-month.

Wolves's André had to go off with a heavy knock in the game against Spurs, but might be OK again for this week.

Pervis Estupinan unexpectedly missed the last game with an illness, Murillo with some muscle discomfort felt in the warm-up, and Callum Hudson-Odoi, Fabio Carvalho, Arne Muric, and Southampton's Flynn Downes with training-ground knocks, while Pau Torres and Seamus Coleman had to go off in the games with muscle problems - but all could possibly be available again this week. Evan Ferguson, though, has apparently reinjured his troublesome ankle again in training and could be set to miss a few weeks at least. 

Matheus Cunha also looked likely to miss out this week after retiring at half-time with a muscle problem in the game against Spurs last Sunday - but the FA has very kindly started his ban this week!

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Jurrien Timber, Morgan Rogers, Fabian Schar, Rodrigo Betancur and Southampton's Mateus Fernandes (who??) all reached 5 yellow cards in the last game before the mid-season amnesty threshold, so miss out this week.

Jhon Duran is serving the second of his unfortunate - unjust - 3-game ban.

And Wolves's Matheus Cunha will start his 2-game ban (the second of which will be served in next week's FA Cup round) for assaulting a civilian on the pitch after the Ipswich game (a laughably lenient sentence for a really very serious offence - WTF??).

Trevoh Chalobah, only on loan at Palace, is ineligible to face parent club Chelsea.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Only 1% of FPL managers have Arne Muric anyway (and probably not as a starter), so his omission last week will probably not have much impact. Although his stand-in, Christian Walton, did outstandingly well, Kieran McKenna has suggested that it was only a token run-out, taking advantage of minor training injury to Muric.

It is very, very risky to have any Manchester City players at the moment; grinding out an unspectacular win against a relegation-bound side (who didn't even play anywhere near their not-that-good best) is not cause for celebration or optimism. But Josko Gvardiol, still owned by over 21%, presents a particular hazard, I think; I've been saying for a while that he's been looking jaded and tired; but the last few games he's started producing some really poor defensive performances too. I'm sure Pep would want to drop him, or at least give him a short break, if he had any other fit defenders at the moment.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Ethan Nwaneri - well, I think so; but I'm afraid Mikel Arteta probably doesn't. He looks like he's going to persist with playing Martinelli now mostly on the right, and Jesus or Trossard on the left; giving the youngster only occasional cameos off the bench. (This is why no-one wants to sign for you, Mikel...)

Haaland-idolaters are rushing to get him back after the win against Leicester. I am more cautious. I've always maintained that there's been no real evidence (recent penalty miss aside!) of any major problem with his own form, only with his team's; and there's been no strong turnaround there - nor any immediate likelihood of one, I fear. DeBruyne's return is a huge plus, of course; but he still doesn't look 100% fit, and probably isn't going to be able to play all of every game. I wouldn't be touching any Manchester City players until after the end of the transfer window - and probably not then, if they haven't been able to land a good new central defensive midfielder.

Eze and Ramsdale again impressed last week. And Wood and Joao Pedro may be coming back into points-scoring form. But on the whole, GW19 didn't generate a lot of excitement.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott:

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A little bit of Zen (23)

 

“Awareness is the greatest agent for change.”

Eckhart Tolle

Report Card (2)

 

A couple of months ago, I was giving myself a rueful C- for my performance in the first quarter of the season,... though indulging in some light optimism about a slow-but-steady improvement after a string of early misfortunes in the opening weeks of the season. How have things gone since then?

Well, I continued dogged - but not too spectacular - upward progress: 110 points above global average (3 'bad' Gameweeks, very slightly below the average) over the next 9 gameweeks, scrabbling up almost back into the top million (it can take a very long time to drag your way clear of bad beginnings: by GW5 or 6, when most of the eventual global leaders were probably at least in the top 500,000, if not the top 100,000, I was still barely inside the top 5 million!). I take particular comfort from the fact that my squad value leapt by nearly 4 million quid in those two months - a sign that a lot of my picks are proving quite shrewd.

However, I was still suffering quite a lot of bad luck. I'd decided to take a chance on Iliman Ndiaye, being impressed by his early-season form before he'd actually scored much; and he gave me a nice return in his first match for me, against Ipswich, but then had quite a long fallow run (came back into form for a while, after I'd dropped him; but then got injured again.... one to watch for a budget forward option next year, perhaps). I got on Matz Sels, Jarrod Bowen, Lewis Hall and Jorgen Strand Larsen quite early, and in December, Amad Diallo too; but only Sels proved a strong long-term hold, the others soon picking up injuries. I dropped Mbeumo during his lull in form in November, and then he suddenly started scoring like a monster again - despite some unfavourable-looking fixtures. I took a punt on Giorginho Rutter as a fifth midfielder for a while, but his points dried up, and then he got a season-ending injury. And I retained optimism in Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson perhaps a bit too long after Chelsea's form began to falter badly in early December. (Not sure how long I would have ultimately held on to them, as I stopped playing at the end of January, in protest at the absurdity of the new 'Assistant Manager' chip. Jackson, of course, picked up an injury immediately after that. But Palmer was still giving intimations of threat, and had some appealing fixtures - so, there was certainly a case for retaining him until some time in April....); I was gutted that I hadn't given Palmer the captain's armband for his last really big haul, in Gameweek 15. Even worse, I'd gone in for Enzo Fernandez during his brief hot streak - which abruptly ended when Romeo Lavia got injured, requiring Enzo to revert to being one of the deep pivots, rather than pushing up alongside Palmer.

In general, I would say, my selection decisions all looked pretty sound, often prescient; but few of them gave me any long-term returns - I had a lot of bad luck with injuries or crashes in form almost immediately I brought someone in. The most egregious of these was Bukayo Saka, who I only managed to find room for in GW12, and in GW17 picked up a hamstring problem that would sideline him for nearly half the season.

January went rather nicely for me, with 100 points above the 'global average' in just 5 gameweeks (although that was with the benefit of Triple Captain and Bench Boost chips working out quite well in Gameweeks 23 and 24). But then I quit the game in a huff, just as things were starting to go well...

So, the second quarter of the season was probably a solid B for me, maybe even a B+ (and getting near to an A in January...). Alas, the stupid innovation of the 'Assistant Manager' Chip spoiled the season, and drove me to abandon the game for the year. But honestly, it was going to be a godawful year for me anyway. I still hadn't quite got back into the top 1 million at the end of January, and probably would have struggled to reach the top 500,000 by season's end - which might have made it my second worst year ever.

When to use the 2nd Wildcard?

 

Good grief - the FPL forums at the moment seem to be full of people proposing to play their 2nd Wildcard this week! Which, of course, prompts me to ask, "WHY?"

'Truisms' often irritate, because they are used over-frequently and often unthinkingly... But there are two truisms about the Wildcards that are in fact usefully TRUE.

1)  A Wildcard tends to become more valuable the longer you can hang on to it. (That's not to say the best time to use it is in the last possible week; but it certainly is worth resisting the impulse to use it early during its period of availability.)

2)  How early you use your Wildcards is usually a precise indicator how how badly you're doing in the game. (Again, that's not saying that it's always a bad decision in itself to use a Wildcard early; certainly, for the 1st one - as I've discussed before - there can be good reasons for using it early; but that does indicate that you've had a dreadful start to the season, and are needing to take drastic action to recover the situation. If you're using a Wildcard early because you absolutely have to, that's bad; if you don't absolutely have to, but you're using it early anyway, that's very, very bad.)

Using the 2nd Wildcard the instant it becomes available smacks of impatience, impulsivity, and just making changes out of boredom rather than any pressing need. Even if you don't accept the arguments in favour of keeping it for the last stages of the season (which I'll get to in a moment), there are rarely any good reasons for using it NOW. In fact, if the first half of the season has gone well for you, you might have been able to hold on to your 1st Wildcard until quite recently. I know some people who've only finally used it in GW18 or GW19. (I have much admiration and envy for them!!)

And even if you haven't Wildcarded just recently, you have had half a season to get your squad in shape. If you feel the need to make a bunch of changes now - and you really do need to - then you must have been making some terrible choices up until now.

At the beginning of the season, we're all just making blind guesses about which players and teams are going to be in the best form, and even perhaps about what team selections and tactics are going to be. It's almost inevitable that many of those guesses will turn out to be wrong, perhaps some of them disastrously wrong, and - if we avoided resorting to the remedial surgery of an early Wildcard - it may take some time to sort our squads out. But by GW19, that really should have happened. Unless we've had a lot of bad luck with injuries, we should really have had a fairly stable lineup for a month or so now (and have been giving our attention to hoarding up some spare Free Transfers!).

Occasionally, there may be a couple of factors that may prompt us to consider a very early 2nd Wildcard. These are: a rash of injuries to key players at the end of December; and/or a major 'turn' of fixtures (upcoming matches looking suddenly much harder) for a number of the big teams. Neither of those is the case this year. Saka and Bowen are the only big names to be ruled out in the last month. And only West Ham and Wolves (and, to a rather lesser extent, Bournemouth and Brentford) are facing an imminent bad fixture run; and they're not exactly major clubs.

So, what are the advantages of hanging on to the Wildcard for a later date?

i)  We're in a transfer window. Some exciting new players may enter the league; others may suddenly leave. (It's unlikely to be a particularly busy window, I think; although, you never know! Manchester City and Arsenal, and perhaps also Manchester United will probably be looking for one or two big purchases. And I really can't see the logic of getting Trent Alexander-Arnold in on a Wildcard now, when he might be leaving for Spain in a week or two...)  There really is not much point in using the Wildcard before or during this phase of transfer activity, when there are going to be a number of new options to consider in a month's time, and the possibility you might then want to make multiple changes at once. Transfer speculation also adds greatly to the uncertainty of match results in this period: players involved in negotiations may be removed from squads. Team dynamics and individuals' morale may be adversely affected by the introduction of new stars, or the loss of old ones - or merely the mooted possibility of such changes. Blowing the Wildcard now is like spending your life savings on a 'Mystery Box': you have no idea what you're getting - you just don't know how the EPL is going to play out this month, or what it's going to look like going into February.

ii)  We're still in the depths of 'the bleak midwinter'. Cold weather and insane fixture congestion at this time of year mean that there continues to be a greatly increased risk of injury over the coming month or more. And you don't really want to blow your Wildcard on bringing in a bunch of players who might become unavailable almost immediately. Of course, there is some risk of such ill fortune whenever you play it; but the risk is much higher from December through February.

iii)  The 2nd Wildcard can be very valuable in negotiating the selection challenges of the Blank Gameweeks (gameweeks with less than the full number of fixtures; some clubs not playing in that week) and Double Gameweeks (where clubs that missed out in a previous Blank Gameweek make up their postponed fixture by playing two games within one gameweek, offering you a chance of higher points from their players). Now, these are likely to be much less of a problem than they have been in the past, because we've lost two of the four regularly occurring occasions for them (the Club World Cup has been moved from December to June/July, and the FA Cup quarter-finals are now to be played on a weekend emptied of EPL fixtures); thus, we are left with only the League Cup Final (GW29; affected teams probably getting a DGW in GW33) and the FA Semis (GW34; follow-up DGW probably in GW36 or 37). Also, the new rule allowing us to hoard up to 5 Free Transfers - effectively a 'mini-Wildcard' (if we could ever manage to save that many transfers....) - could make it a lot easier to get through these bothersome chicanes this year.

However, even the relatively small interruption of the League Cup Final can be pretty devastating - if you happen to have 2 or 3 players from each of the 4 affected teams (not just the finalists themselves, but whoever they were drawn against in the League that weekend); so devastating that even if you have got 3, 4, or 5 Free Transfers in the bank, you might still not be able to get to a full eleven without taking a lot of 'hits' as well. And even if you can address this problem with Free Transfers and/or paid 'hits', you might want to use a 'makeover chip' to rebuild your squad to its regular shape immediately in the following gameweek. Alternatively, there may be circumstances where it seems better to use the Wildcard to create an 'ideal' squad for this eccentric gameweek, but structure it in such a way that you can quickly restore it to is more normal shape with transfers over the next two or three gameweeks.

The Free Hit is, naturally, the best chip to use for sorting out a one-off problem like this. But you only have one of those, and this challenge is going to present itself at least twice in the second half of our season. (Just be grateful that it's no longer four or more times in a season! The FA Quarter-Finals used to be a colossal clusterfuck....)  It might yet arise more than twice; we've already seen one fixture postponed because of high winds, and more recently several others came close to being called off because of severe fog. As I pointed out in this post on the main hazard of The New Chip, there are all kinds of things that might lead to multiple postponements on one weekend. If that should happen, it's nice - very, very, very comforting! - to have the option of using either the Wildcard or the Free Hit to deal with the gaping holes it could leave in your squad.  

The common expectation of 'chip strategy' this year is that it will probably be best to hold on to your Free Hit to get around the FA Semis in Gameweek 34. But it would be very valuable to hang on to your Wildcard at least until Gameweek 29 as a back-up option for coping with this kind of last-minute emergency.

And it is also possible - though a much rarer eventuality - that teams with a Double Gameweek also have favourable fixtures following, and thus (especially if you're also developing a high level of dissatisfaction with some members of your current squad...) it may be appropriate to drop the Wildcard in that Double Gameweek to load up on more players from these teams that are playing twice, and that you're happy to keep on afterwards.

iv)  The other prime candidate for an especially valuable use of the Wildcard late in the season has traditionally been to 'set up' optimally to exploit your Bench Boost chip in a Double Gameweek. If you play your Wildcard the week before the DGW, you can be reasonably confident of having every member of your squad being a starter, and as many of them as possible having double-fixtures (and good fixtures). It is difficult to do this just with transfers, because you don't know until a few weeks ahead who the teams involved will be. (And even if you could do it that way, it tends to be non-ideal, because you're probably moving some players out of your team much earlier than you'd like to, just to optimise for the coming double-fixture week. Again, this might be more possible this year to do in one go, through having saved up 5 Free Transfers; but it would be very tricky to pull that off.) There were only two scheduled Double Gameweeks this year (we now have a third one, thanks to the Everton v Liverpool postponement a few weeks back), rather than four, which was the common minimum until now (we'd also grown rather used to having even more additional ones occur in recent years due to things like Covid outbreaks and the death of the Queen); and only one 'big' one, the rearranged fixtures from the FA Semi-Final weekend being crammed in right before the end of the season. While I always counsel that it is very risky - for all sorts of reasons - to wait until then to play a chip,.... most experienced FPL managers will probably be planning to play their Bench Boost in that last Double Gameweek.... and their 2nd Wildcard in the week before (judging that the potentially substantial benefits of this strategy outweigh the risks).

v)  While there are very strong arguments for saving the Wildcard as a contingency for addressing possible Blank Gameweeks, or for setting up for a Bench Boost attempt in a 'big' Double Gameweek,... as I've said in regard to the 1st Wildcard, there can be no hard-and-fast rules: we always need to stay flexible in deciding how we can best use our chips. It can occasionally happen that we're clobbered with multiple injuries, suspensions, and sudden and catastrophic dips in form for key teams or players in quick succession - perhaps even in the space of just one week. And if we've also been taking a chance on carrying one or two people on the bench who we thought might be short-term injuries but turn out to be rather longer-term, and perhaps we haven't been paying enough attention to a looming turn in fixtures for two or three of the sides that we've taken the most players from... then we are indeed most royally screwed. If you suddenly find yourself with 6, 7, 8 gaps in your line-up you urgently need to fill - and you don't have many saved Free Transfers to help you out - that's when you need to consider playing your Wildcard.

vi)  So, I've outlined two reasons why it's just A BAD IDEA to play the Wildcard at the start of January, and given three more why there are likely going to be occasions later in the season when it will be far more valuable. But I'd also suggest simply considering THE ODDS: there are 19 occasions during the rest of the season when you could play this chip. You need to be really, really sure that the week you choose to play it is almost certainly going to be the best possible one. It's really hard to be that confident when there are 18 other opportunities to play it still ahead of you. It becomes a little easier, a little less stressful and uncertain with each passing week; once you get to GW28 or GW29, and there are almost as many gameweeks in which to use the chip behind you as there are still to come, it becomes more possible to make a confident determination - rather than just a wild guess. I think it is very likely that almost all of the remaining weeks of the season will offer a better opportunity to get the best out of the 2nd Wildcard than Gameweek 20 - for absolutely everyone. I am also quite certain that probably about half of them will be much better; and at least 3 or 4 of them will be much, much, much better.

vii)  And finally.... if you have - by some great good fortune - managed to sail through the second half of the season without encountering any huge injury crises or unexpected mass postponements, and if you've been able to safely navigate the expected Blank and Double Gameweeks, and even get the best out of your Bench Boost, just by using regular transfers (and perhaps the occasional 'hit').... well, good for you, you are truly blessed. Such things are very possible, from time to time; but you won't know until the end of the season.

And let me assure you, on the rare, blessed occasions when this may happen, there is no greater pleasure in Fantasy Premier League than being able to drop an unexpected Wildcard as a late-season 'smart-bomb' to get you through a tricky final (or perhaps even the semi-, or quarter- ) against a bitter rival in the 'Cup' competition of one of your mini-leagues. Honestly, that possibility alone always makes it worth thinking twice - and thrice, and four times! - about using the 2nd Wildcard for anything else earlier on!

So, in summary, if you are thinking of playing your 2nd Wildcard in Gameweek 20 - What is wrong with you, are you completely BATSHIT INSANE??  PLEASE, DON'T DO IT!!!

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott:

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A New Year bit of Zen

"One should not go into the woods looking for something, but to find out what is there..."

John Cage

Happy 'Year of the Snake'!!

 

OK, this is a little premature, since the New Year for folks in the Sinosphere doesn't actually kick off until the 29th of January this year; and in South-East Asia, where I live, the Buddhist New Year festivals are even later, in mid-April.

For Westerners, the Snake might not seem the most auspicious of birth-year animals - since we have come to associate the creature almost entirely with negative attributes: the leading-astray of Adam and Eve in Eden; the danger of painful, possibly fatal bites; furtiveness, skullduggery, and dishonest dealing. The most 'positive' characteristic we recognise in them is their impressively elegant mode of locomotion, and a suggestion of low cunning = impressive, if sinister - conjured by their penchant for ambushing prey from hiding. In Asian cultures, though, they have become identified with a more admirable spectrum of qualities - notably wisdom, insight, intuition.

Thus, I felt that a snake toiling to ascend a mountain slope might be an apposite image for the striving FPL manager, as we are about to enter the (Western/'International') New Year... and the second half of the Premier League season.

This is traditionally a time of year dedicated to reflection and self-improvement. So, I will probably soon be attempting a few 'reviews' of my ups-and-downs in FPL this year, and of the appositeness or otherwise of the various predictions and recommendations I might have made on this blog over the past few months.

I may also try to come up with some new insights for improvement going forward; and - although I am wary of the word - perhaps even a few 'resolutions' too.

Have a happy and prosperous 2025!!!

Luck-o-Meter (19)

Stefan Ortega had a close-call when he was excused for body-checking Vardy in the penalty area early on, as the home side's hero was adjudged to have been marginally offside when he began his lightning break in behind the City defence. It was one of those calls that looked very unconvincing, and was really too close to render a decision on. How much was there supposed to be in it - the length of Vardy's toes?? It was one of those where advancing or reversing the video playback by one frame would have made an enormous difference to the players' relative positions. Even if the call was technically 'correct' under the current application of the rules, Ortega was extraordinarily lucky not to get himself sent off there, and to gift Leicester an early lead. City will no doubt be hugely relieved to get back in winning ways (though DeBruyne - and later McAtee - provided the only real high spots), and to have their big Viking finding the target again (after recording only 1 league goal in his previous 7 outings); but this was again not really a very convincing or controlled performance; Leicester were completely on top for much of the second half, and were really quite unfortunate not to have got at least a draw out of the game - after Buonanotte looped a header against a post, Justin's improvised effort was scambled off the goal-line by Akanji, and Vardy was played in for a great chance by Mavididi but couldn't keep his stretching volley under the bar. Buonanotte also had a decent penalty shout waved away. when Ake made a rash sliding block against him; it was a poor challenge, but it was not clear that there was any contact actually made. However, on one of the TV angles, I thought it looked like the defender did just clip him; it was one of those calls that really needed to be studied closely from as many angles as possible, to determine if there had been contact or not; but it seemed that VAR dismissed the appeal in a matter of seconds, succumbing - yet again - to the ridiculously heavy bias in favour of upholding the referee's original decision. I would also note that Josko Gvardiol - still the game's 6th most popular defender, with 21.5% ownership - had another stinker of a game (he was the lowest-rated City player on the BBC Sports website... apart from Kyle Walker); he's really looked very poor - defensively, at least - for quite a few games now, and must surely be due for a bit of a rest.... as soon as City have any other defenders available.

Crystal Palace's win over Southampton produced the goal of the day (Eze's fierce half-volley from the edge of the box) and one of the saves of the season (Ramsdale's fabulous reaction stop low to his left to deny Ismaila Sarr's breakaway), but was otherwise a fairly drab affair. Juric naturally complained afterwards about Ramsdale having been shoved by Mateta in the goalmouth scramble that produced Palace's equaliser, but there didn't look to be much in the claim; the goalkeeper here just needed to be a bit stronger (rather than looking for the foul by staggering theatrically backwards into his goal), or assign one of his defenders to manhandle the big forward out of the way.

Oh dearie me! Someone gave Chris Wood a new pair of scoring boots for Christmas! Or perhaps it's just the operation of my infallible power of jinx again - I'd just given up on him and moved him out of the squad... While not the most spectacular finish, I think that delicate side-foot volley to gently chip the ball over Pickford's head was quite exquisite, and should be a 'Goal of the Month' contender. And just as I start to get excited about Everton's improving defensive form, they revert to being wobbly at home... (At least I hadn't piled in for any of their players yet. I'll actually be quite pleased if they falter again, as I think the relegation battle will be more entertaining if it involves more than just Wolves, Leicester, and Ipswich.)  And Murillo was a last-minute dropout, after feeling a problem in the warm-up; a major stroke of ill luck for anyone who happened to have him (Aina and Milenkovic have been the more popular choices this year. although Murillo's in about 3.5% of squads); this is the first time I can remember this happening this season, but there are probably a few prior instances that have slipped my mind (this is the first time it's happened to a player I'm interested in). Forest, however, were not notably weakened by his absence.

Spurs v Wolves was a clash of two teams who look quite dangerous in attack, but hopelessly vulnerable in defence; with better finishing, they could have had 3 or 4 apiece. Spurs, though, should really have been able to put the game to bed after recovering from the early setback to get in front; Strand Larsen's late equaliser really came out of nowhere (though Forster probably should have been able to keep it out). The one egregious refereeing mess-up was the unfathomable decision to award Spurs a penalty for Johnson's clash with Andre; even Johnson looked a little surprised and shamefaced when the referee pointed to the spot. It can sometimes be hard to make the call on this kind of contact, and you can see referees giving the benefit of the doubt to the attacking player when it's anywhere near a 50/50; but for me, this was more like an 80/20 - Johnson deliberately put his leg across in front of the defender as he ran up alongside him, tripping him: the contact was totally initiated by the Spurs player, it was a foul the other way. Perhaps Son also felt embarassed about the injustice of the decision, since he contrived to mess up the spot-kick conversion. Since the penalty wasn't scored, it probably didn't have much influence on the overall outcome of the game; but it did, of course, have a huge impact on FPL points, with Sa getting points for a penalty save and Son getting negative points for a miss.

Fulham v Bournemouth was a cracking game of football, free-flowing and evenly matched - much the best of the gameweek so far, I think. And it produced some superb goals, with Evanilson's (his first for 7 weeks, apparently; it hadn't seemed that long to me - but he's never struck me as a particularly tempting third-forward pick anyway) the pick of the crop, although you won't see many better headers than Raul's and Wilson's. However, fond though I am of Bournemouth, I have to say I think their second equaliser should have been chalked off, for Semenyo wiping out Diop with his follow-through in supplying the assist to Ouattara; VAR's pronouncement that the contact was accidental, unavoidable, non-culpable... was utter nonsense. I did think they got things right earlier in the game, though, when Fulham players were baying for a red card for Ryan Christie's messy challenge on Robinson; that was one where the two players were rushing into each, both partly responsible for the coming-together; Christie was showing his studs very high, but he actually tried to pull out of the impact, and the contact was thus very light.

Liverpool's predictable demolition of West Ham wasn't quite as one-sided as the final scoreline made it appear. Although they had barely a third as many goal attempts (and, strangely, none were recorded as being 'on target'), they did quite often look threatening on the break, and the game might have taken on a different complexion if Paqueta hadn't completely fluffed a good chance laid on by Bowen in the opening minutes. The Brazilian had a good effort deflected on to the outside of the post by Van Dijk's heel near the end as well; while Mo Kudus crashed a neat curler from distance and a firm close-range header against the woodwork. Mo Salah was presumably penalised by the BPS for being so profligate with his chances; but he wasn't the only one - he might have notched 2 or 3 more assists as well, if some of his teammates had been a little sharper in their finishing. It is terrifying to think that (as with Palmer's monster haul against Brighton this season) Salah's 16-point tally here might have been much, much more: there is a universe in which he bagged 6 or 7 goals last night, and almost as many assists! While the BPS has traditionally hated Mo (for taking a lot of shots at goal, and not always getting them on target), it has long had an obscene man-crush on Trent: here, with so many other oustanding contributions from Liverpool players, it is really difficult to see how he earned even 1 extra point, let alone 3! Indeed, it feels somewhat unjust that he was even credited with the goal, since although his initial shot might have been on target (even that might be open to question: it looked a bit high to me, and would have had to dip sharply to get under the crossbar), it really posed no threat, and Kilman's headed deflection on it was massive, decisve. Some better definitions of key 'game actions' like this, and more consistent and transparent application of these definitions, would be very welcome for making the game seem more fair. Areola, restored to the West Ham goal by Fabianski's concussion, also deserves a lot of credit for keeping the score down to single figures; he notched 8 saves, a few of them very impressive ones - although he might possibly be held slightly at fault for getting a hand to Salah's first goal but failing to keep it out.

The Villa v Brighton game saw 3 particularly sweet finishes, from Adingra, Lamptey, and Rogers. But it was another game marred by a bizarre refereeing decision: Watkins was able to convert a penalty, after Joao Pedro was apparently deemed culpable for being in the way of Rogers's wild lunge at the ball; the Brighton man was obviously the one being kicked, and a foul should have been given his way. On the TV highlights, it looked as though the decision had been made solely by VAR; but in fact it seems to have been yet another case where the referee whistled hastily for a non-existent foul, and the VAR team didn't want to embarrass a colleague by declaring that he'd made a 'clear and obvious error' - even though he had. [OK: The views I initially saw looked very much as if Rogers had swiped at a ball he was never likely to reach, and had made thigh-on-thigh or shin-on-shin contact with Pedro. But fuller highlights I found later included the VAR footage, which showed that Rogers did in fact get something of the ball - not much - and that it was Pedro's foot that made contact with him, tapping his heel a tiny fraction of a second after the ball had gone. But it was a very minimal contact, accidental and inconsequential; they were both going to kick the same ball and their feet touched - it happens; it's not always a penalty. And it didn't look to me like this one was. Also, though the official highlights entirely omitted this, the referee was directed to the pitchside monitor to reconsider his original decision of 'no foul'. It is kind of important for viewers to know exactly how wrong decisions like this have been made.] 

Pedro at least had another very lively game, and would surely have got more than just the 1 bonus point if he hadn't been harshly penalised for conceding that penalty. However, he did get lucky in being credited with both assists; the first one surely should have gone to Lewis Dunk for his finely weighted long ball over the top; Pedro seemed to have simply misread the bounce of the ball and run past it - a nice dummy to mislead the defenders, but there was minimal if any contact with the ball, and certainly not decisive in its falling so neatly to Adingra racing up behind him. (The attribution of 'assists' is one of the weirdest things going on in FPL this season! I don't know if they rely solely on the FA or Opta to make these determinations, or if they retain a discretion to revise them themselves...?) On top of Brighton's other problems at the moment, Verbruggen seems to have become yet another keeper who can't deal with being crowded when facing corner-kicks.... [Ooops - I recommended him as 'one to watch' just a month ago; that really hasn't worked out at all!]

The Sheep will no doubt again be complaining that Cole Palmer has become rubbish, after he 'blanked' last night as Chelsea slipped to a surprise defeat at Ipswich. In fact, he was on fire, as usual; it was just the rest of the team that was a bit flat. He brought one superb save out of stand-in keeper Christian Walton with a fierce shot from the edge of the box, smacked a free-kick against the post with the goalkeeper stranded (and a defender then intercepted the rebound before it could reach a Chelsea man for a tap-in.... and played it straight back to the keeper, who fell on it gratefully and picked it up - yet this was not penalised as 'handling a back-pass'? WTF?? I've complained once or twice before in this series that this rule just about never gets applied any more, though we see examples almost every week where it should be....), and saw Joao Felix head home his majestic cross - only to be ruled narrowly offside (this decision was clearly 'correct' under the modern rules, nearly a foot in it, rather than just fractions of an inch; but I still hanker for the good old days where an attacker was still considered onside if there was any 'body overlap' with the last defender). Chelsea could have won this game fairly comfortably, and Palmer, on any other day, might have claimed a couple of goals and a couple of assists - he was desperately unlucky here. Worst of all, Chelsea - who haven't been able to get a penalty of their own all season (maybe 1 or 2, compared to about 6 at the same point last year?) - were on the wrong end of one of the worst decisions of the year, when referee John Brooks ruled that keeper Jorgensen had brought down Liam Delap in the box; there was pretty clearly no contact at all, and Delap had just dived; this was pretty easy to recognise with the naked eye, and even more clearcut on TV replays - yet VAR somehow declined to overrule the referee, or even to suggest the sometimes helpful 'second look'. Without that appalling officiating cock-up so early on, Chelsea would surely have gone on to win the game as expected. [I'm pleased for Ipswich, as I've been saying all season that they look to me really the best of this year's promoted clubs, and might deserve to stay up. But I'm gutted for my three Chelsea players who all failed to return....]

From the brief highlights I was able to find, it looked as if misfiring Manchester United were never in the game against Newcastle; they didn't have an attempt on goal until Casemiro blazed wide in the closing minutes. Newcastle really should have made more of their easy dominance, having gone two up inside 20 minutes, but later chances were all squandered. Trippier mocked Onana's recent floundering at set-pieces by trying to score directly from a corner - and nearly succeeded. Apparently, some United fans have been carping that Joelinton's headed goal potentially came off his arm - but it really didn't look anywhere close to me; top of his shoulder, maybe. And none of the United players appeared to appeal for it at the time, so I think that's just a delusional gripe.

Well, there's still Brentford v Arsenal on New Year's Day to round out this extended Gameweek, but... let's hope there's no more controversy and crap officiating in that one. 

What do you know? It seems there weren't any bad refereeing calls in the New Year's Day game??!! Arsenal got off to an unconvincing start, not creating many decent chances despite dominating possession, and repeatedly looking vulnerable on the counter-attack. And David Raya was having a particularly off-day, being arguably at fault for the first goal (partly unsighted, perhaps, but had left a very big gap at his near post), and looking very flakey with his distribution. The game might have got away from the Gunners if a second Mbeumo breakaway had stretched the lead to 2-0; but this time Raya managed to dramatically scoop the ball away from his line at the last second, after his weak first parry had left the effort still goalbound. Arsenal came out stronger in the second half, and Brentford's dodgy defence - and Flekken's inability to cope with a crowded six-yard box - ultimately allowed them to come through fairly comfortably. Teen prodigy Ethan Nwaneri was clearly their 'Man of the Match', but didn't make any impression on the BPS ranking at all (some of the most emphatic proof yet that the BPS really needs to be changed); and I fear Arteta will not trust him as a regular Saka replacement - although he might prove to be one of the great FPL bargains of the next few months, if he did.

The 'Team of the Week' doesn't look that crazy for once; although Chalobah, Ait-Nouri, Rogers and Savinho are mildly surprising entries on to that list; and Ipswich reserve keeper Walton is a very surprising one!  But with three penalties given that should not have been given, and one - against City! - not given, that probably should have been (on top of Ortega's lucky escape in the opening minutes!!), Ouattara's equaliser beng wrongly allowed, and Salah's strange profligacy with his multiple scoring chances,.... I'm provisionally going to have to call this a 7 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter. [On Sunday's games, I thought it was no more than a 4 or a 5; but that dreadful decision on the Ipswich penalty is worth at least 3 more points on its own!]

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

BOYCOTT the New Chip!

 

I have written before about why I think FPL's silly innovation of the 'Assistant Manager' Chip is a terrible idea in principle (and also about why it's badly thought out, and severely impractical, difficult/dangerous to use...).

And I mentioned in those posts that I was so appalled by it that I am inclined to quit the game in protest - when the new chip becomes available, after Gameweek 23.  (You could just refuse to use the chip; but I don't think that will be a sufficiently clear and emphatic denunciation of its introduction into the game. Others - probably the great majority - will use it. And since it is likely to be worth far more points than both of the other bonus chips combined, it will effectively determine overall rank outcomes for the season on its own. If you soldier on in the game without using the chip, you'll have to suffer a really terrible end to your season....  I'd rather just not bother.)

You might perhaps find this new chip merely a tolerable irritation for this one season only; maybe even you're intrigued by the challenge it poses.

But if you like 'challenges' you can do Bridge problems or Sudoku. The game of Fantasy Premier League already presents a well-defined challenge - and this innovation falls utterly outside of that existing definition. It is a completely new game, grafted on to the old one - and spoiling it.

And the danger is that if we tolerate it now, it will become a permanent feature of the game, and RUIN IT for all time. (With the further - horrific - possibility that, additionally or instead, other bizarre new rule changes will now be introduced every year.... to keep up a continual 'novelty factor'!!)  I DON'T WANT THAT; and I don't think anyone with any sense, anyone who truly loves the game of FPL, does either.

So, I'd like to propose that we start trying to organise a boycott. Denounce The New Chip online at every opportunity. And if you, like me, decide it's appropriate to quit the game in protest - do so straight after the close of Gameweek 23. And make sure EVERYBODY knows why you've done it.

We can beat this thing. But it's going to take a lot of effort....

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW19

Throughout this hectic December, the main uncertainties are likely to surround 'rest rotations' - and the sudden realisation of 'totting up' suspensions -  as much as injuries. But with such a brief gap since our Thursday/Friday games, there's been little - if any - team news released for the new 'gameweek', so there might not be too much to comment on here.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 19?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Lukasz Fabianski appears to have escaped any serious injury in his collision with Southampton defender Nathan Wood on Thursday evening, but will presumably be ruled out this weekend by 'concussion protocols'.

Brentford keeper Mark Flekken is also likely to be out for a while, after having to come off in Friday night's game with a groin muscle injury.  This will have quite an impact on FPL, since Fabianski is the second most popular goalkeeper pick in the game (though probably only a back-up for most people), with 20% ownership, and Flekken is still in 6th place with nearly 11%.

Goal hero Iliman Ndiaye might be a doubt for Everton, after coming off near the end of the draw with City with a calf strain.

West Ham's Max Kilman (shoulder injury) and Carlos Soler (knee injury) both had to be substituted early on Thursday with what looked like quite serious problems, so they're likely to be out for at least a week or two.

Wout Faes and Jack Grealish both developed problems ahead of the midweek games, and are now doubts for this weekend.

Kyle Walker apparently missed the Everton game because of an illness; and City fans are probably praying he doesn't recover too quickly, as he has looked an absolute liability to the team the last few times he's started.  Illness was also the reason for Tino Livramento's absence on Wednesday; but he might be back in contention this weekend.

Radu Dragusin came off against Forest with a sore ankle, and remains a slight doubt for the weekend (although, given that he is Spurs's only surviving central defender, I imagine he'll just have to soldier on with painkilling injections....).

And Raheem Sterling has reportedly picked up yet another injury - a knee problem this time - last weekend; but I doubt if even his mum owns him in FPL this year, so that is non-news.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Dominik Szoboszlai, Justin Kluivert, Jordan Ayew, Manuel Ugarte, Tomas Soucek, Guido Rodriguez, Ryan Yates, Marc Guehi, and Matty Cash will serve 1-match bans for reaching 5 yellow cards.

Bruno Fernandes and Djed Spence also serve 1-match bans for getting yellow-carded twice on Thursday.

Villa's Jhon Duran is starting a 3-game ban for a 'violent conduct' red card in midweek. I thought his club would have had a good chance of getting that overturned, but apparently their appeal was summarily dismissed. I suppose it was one of those decisions that was so obviously awful, the FA was ashamed to admit to such an error.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

The entire Manchester City and Manchester United teams....  But they've all been very dubious picks for a while now.

I would add the entire Wolves team, because, despite much improved performances under their new manager, they have a really horrendous run of fixtures from now until late in February; and they are bound to be hampered by a lengthy ban on their best player, Matheus Cunha. (Fake rumours circulating on the Internet on Friday were suggesting an imminent 5-game ban. I think it could be as much as 8 or 10 games; and he'd be very lucky to get away with anything less than 6.)

And the entire Spurs team - because their form of late has been dreadful; and Ange Postecoglou is starting to have that look of a manager who knows there's a death-sentence hanging over him.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

It's good to see Eberechi Eze back for Palace, and he might become a candidate for replacing Saka; but he's not quite back at his best yet.

Cody Gakpo had an outstanding game for Liverpool against Leicester, but still can't be relied upon as an invariable starter (unfortunately, none of their midfield or attacking players, apart from Salah, can be).

Oh, and the entire Forest and Everton and Bournemouth defences!!

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Luck-o-Meter (18)

Bournemouth v Palace was one of the more entertaining 0-0 draws I've seen this season, with both sides producing some fluent attacking football - but struggling to find a decisive finish against each other's well-organised defences. Eze was back starting, and looked lively (with Palace's much improved form in recent games, he could perhaps become a candidate for a Saka replacement). And 3.7% of FPL managers are probably disgruntled at Iraola resting Evanilson in favour of Unal up front; but we have to expect these sorts of rotations in December.

Manchester City managed a lively start, looking about the best they have in two months or so (the omission of Walker, Gundogan - and, gosh, yes, even DeBruyne - immediately improves things),... but only for about the first 25 minutes; then they progressively faded out of the game. And they were very lucky that Everton were not able to capitalise on a 4-on-2 break in the dying minutes to claim the win. The result might perhaps have been different if a few things had broken City's way during their early spell of dominance: Gvardiol very nearly bagged yet another goal with a strong header against the post, and Bernardo Silva squandered a great chance shortly after giving City the lead (he was very fortunate to be credited with that goal, since it needed a huge, decisive deflection via Branthwaite's attempted block to find its way over Pickford and in at the far post; however, we never like to see defenders penalised with 'own goals', and it would have been particularly harsh on Branthwaite here - who otherwise produced an outstanding performance). And Haaland missed a penalty - hails of derisive laughter!! At the moment, City have relegation form; and I can't see that changing unless they make some important signings next month.

Unpromising historical stats could be invoked on both sides in the Chelsea v Fulham match: Fulham hadn't won a game at Stamford Bridge in over 45 years, and hadn't even managed to score a goal there for the last 13 years; but Chelsea have a pretty horrible record in London derbies played on Boxing Day. It was the latter hoodoo that ultimately prevailed. Despite taking an early lead through a piece of individual magic from Palmer, Chelsea looked a bit flat (with Jackson and Neto particularly off their game, and Enzo Fernandez not able to get involved in the final third very much in the absence of Lavia), and allowed Fulham to start getting on top in the second half. Even so, Fulham needed a few smart saves by Leno, from Curcurella, Fernandez, and, in the dying seconds, Nkunku to take home the points. The late, late winner from out-of-favour substitute Rodrigo Muniz counts as a bit of a surprise; but the refereeing was impeccable in this one.

Jhon Duran's sending-off at Newcastle spoiled the game for Villa, and was probably the worst decision of the Gameweek. His bafflement at the red card looked entirely genuine, and his treading on the defender was clearly accidental. What's more, there was some confusion as to how the decision was even made - with Anthony Taylor hesitating quite a long time before producing a card, and the commentator at the time suggesting that the decision had been recommended by the VAR official. VAR should surely not be directly overruling the on-pitch referee on an issue like this; but equally, if it was Taylor's decision, they should have recommended he take a second look on the pitchside monitor - because a sending-off can have a momentous impact on a game, and you really need to take care to get these decisions right; and this one was wrong. It was, I think, so egregiously wrong that there should be some hope Villa can get the decision rescinded on appeal, and have Duran available for the weekend after all. I'm not sure that it made much difference to the ultimate result, though. Villa looked a distant second-best throughout, and were already behind from Gordon's stunning curler. With Newcastle in such sharp form at the moment, they were lucky to avoid a cricket score: Martinez produced a great save from Tonali's drive, Bruno Guimaraes smacked one against a post, and three Newcastle goals were (rightly) disallowed. Tino Livramento's late dropping out with illness - and Kieran Trippier's consequent restoration to the starting lineup - will have affected a few FPL managers; but not as much as Duran again replacing Watkins as the Villa No. 9. (I'd said just the other day I was very confident that wouldn't happen. And I'm still doubtful it will on a regular basis. I suspect there's some fitness issue with Watkins. And, when fully fit, he's too good to be dropped, however strong the form of his understudy is. The best that Duran can hope for is occasional rotation, or perhaps being played as a support striker alongside Watkins - but not being the sole centre-forward to the exclusion of Watkins.)

Another win and clean sheet at home for Forest wasn't exactly a surprise; they have grown into one of the best defensive sides in the league this season. Sels had to make three good stops from Brennan Johnson, but apart from that, Spurs didn't really do much with their more-than-70% possession. However, while I do think Forest were well worth their win, Elanga must have been very, very close to offside for his goal - and we didn't see any VAR decision made on that?! It is the inconsistency and lack of transparency about the VAR process that I am finding so exasperating this season, as much as the sheer number of bad decisions emanating from it. Djed Spence can't have much complaint about his late sending-off for a second yellow card offence. But Spurs fans - and those FPL managers rash enough to have taken a chance on him - will probably complain about the benching of James Maddison. Amazingly, his ownership is now up to nearly 12%, with some 400,000 people having transferred him in this week - as an ideal replacement for Saka?? - despite his having been subbed off after 55 minutes last week!

Southampton immediately look much improved under new coach, Ivan Juric, and although they're probably too far adrift to have any hope of Premier League survival, they should be capable of causing opponents a lot more difficulty over the second half of the season. They really dominated a lacklustre West Ham throughout here, bringing 3 sharp saves out of Fabianski in the 35 minutes he was on the pitch before having to go off with a concussion, and a few more from Areola afterwards. They looked good for at least a draw here, and if they'd been able to stop the ever-lively Bowen nicking a goal from a corner, they would have got one. At least VAR here was doing its job, as West Ham's holding midfielder Guido Rodriguez, initially shown a straight red card for a clumsy but not violent challenge, was quickly reprieved (although again the process was rather unclear, at least on the TV coverage; highlights did not show any visit to the pitchside monitor, and the BBC commentator did not explain why the referee had changed his mind about the card). West Ham under Lopategui continue to look very unimpressive, and I would still bet on him being the next manager to lose his job. 

Wolves look remarkably revitalized under new coach Vitor Pereira, picking up their second straight win since Gary O'Neill's dismissal. Cunha had a superb game (though he should not have been playing; I cannot see why the FA are taking so long to hand down a ban for his assault after the Ipswich game), and nicked the opening goal with a cheeky curler direct from the corner-kick (I can't remember the last time I saw that in an EPL game!). United fans are whingeing that Onana was unfairly 'impeded' in that incident, but the Wolves players weren't even boxing him in that tightly, and it was entirely his own fault that he did not assert himself physically in that situation. Bruno's sending-off for a second yellow card early in the second half may have turned the course of the game, although United really hadn't looked very dangerous before that: José Sá had to make one very good save from a curling effort by his countryman Dalot, but that was about it. Wolves perhaps hadn't really earned a two-goal margin of victory, and grabbing their second on a breakway so deep into added-on time must be considered a little lucky; but they were certainly worth the win - and Amorim's team have all sorts of problems.

I suppose we should count ourselves lucky that the Liverpool v Leicester game went ahead: cancellation had been considered, because of the heavy fog. (It would have been nice to use a high-vis ball in those conditions, wouldn't it? Maybe that was supposed to be a high-vis ball... but I was struggling to see it in the first half!). We also felt much relief after Salah finally came good: early on, it was looking as though it might be 'one of those days', with him prodding an effort against the near post in the opening minutes, then having a deflected shot loop on to the roof of the net with the keeper stranded, then smacking a delicious curler against the crossbar (Andy Robertson also saw a superb angled header smash against the face of the far post...). And I am once again mystified by VAR's application of the Offside Laws: it is unfathomable that they could take over 3 minutes to render a decision on Gakpo's disallowed second goal, and provide no explanation for that decision. Apparently, Nunez was adjudged to be offside, but: a) he didn't look it; b) he didn't play the ball; and c) Salah's cross was subsequently cleared by a Leicester defender, which surely initiates a new 'phase of play'? Yet another utterly opaque and daft - and painfully slow - decision; I am getting so sick of having to suffer these every single week. Ward's omission can't really be considered a surprise after his dreadful game last week (although I confess I had suggested in my weekly roundup that his manager would probably stick with him), and it is unlikely to have affected many people anyway; but Vardy's absence with a knock is likely to have inconvenienced a few people - while some may have profited from Jordan Ayew's surprise opening goal. And the 0.8% of people who own Patson Daka (how is it that many??), and the much larger numbers who hate Liverpool, will be aggrieved that he managed to fluff a complete sitter. All in all, though, not too much to twitch the Luck-o-meter needle in this match.

Brighton had one of those frustrating games against Brentford, where they dominated in attack (24 attempts on goal!), but somehow couldn't find an effective finish. Flekken was in particularly good form in the Brentford goal, racking up 6 good saves in just over half an hour, before having to retire with a groin strain. Riley, Enciso, Mitoma, and the returning Solly March all went close from distance; and back-up keeper Valdimarsson was also impressive. Weirdly, though, despite Brentford barely threatening at the other end, it was the Brighton defence, and Bart Verbruggen, who dominated the BPS scores - what's up with that??  Brentford maybe should have nicked it, with the best chance of the game being Wissa's first-half breakaway, where he netted confidently, but then had VAR declare that he'd been offside by a kneecap; another utterly ridiculous decision. Joao Pedro was also extremely lucky to escape a straight red card for flinging an elbow at Yarmoliuk in frustration; he didn't make contact, but he was pretty close, and he appeared to do it in earnest, with some violence. That is supposed to count as 'violent conduct', and it is baffling that the referee did not see it that way; even more disturbing was the subsequent note from VAR on the incident, which seemed to imply that they thought the referee had been wrong - but not 'clearly and obviously' so??!!  VAR is ruining the game at the moment; it needs a complete overhaul. [On seeing that incident again, I think he does look as though Pedro pulled out of delivering the blow with elbow to face. But even so, just shying at an opponent like, just making a threatening gesture that extreme... can be construed as 'violent conduct'. He was  a very, very lucky boy to escape punishment for that.]

Arsenal got the job done against a resolute Ipswich defence, but were probably relieved to take home all the points thanks to Havertz's solitary tap-in. Muric was in good form, making a particularly fine save from Merino late on. Timber, Odegaard, and Gabriel also had decent efforts (Gabriel really should have scored!); and Arsenal should surely have had a penalty when an Ipswich player prevented Havertz from getting a decisive contact on a ball into the six-yard box by hauling back on his shirt. The BPS tallies were again a little surprising, with Timber somehow edging Havertz out of the top bonus-points spot (presumably because of his booking; although it is unusual for the sole goalscorer not to claim the maximum bonus).

Fulham's late win over Chelsea, and Wolves' victory over Manchester United were the only 'upset' results of the gameweek, although the double clean sheets for Bournemouth and Palace, and Brighton and Brentford were also somewhat surprising. And even with City's recent dismal form, Haaland missing a penalty was a bit of a turn-up for the books. 

We did see a few outstanding goals in this batch of games - from Palmer, Gordon, Ndiaye, Elanga, Gakpo and Salah - but rather more outstanding saves.... and an above-average number of efforts clattering the woodwork! And the 'Team of the Week' this time is a really strange one: Verbruggen somehow takes the goalkeeper spot (despite having almost nothing to do in the game?!); Wan-Bissaka, Van Hecke, Joelinton, Elanga, Ndiaye (hasn't come close to having a scoring chance in a couple of months), Cunha (why isn't he banned yet??), and Gakpo (not an invariable starter...) also feature - WHO owns any of them (well, apart from Cunha...)??

The refereeing overall wasn't too terrible - but there were several extremely dubious offside calls, and the red card decisions on Duran and Joao Pedro were just appalling. And the FA continuing to drag its feet on announcing Cunha's ban is quite mind-boggling. So, I think this is once again about a 7 out of 10 on my Luck-o-Meter.

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A little bit of Zen (22)

 

There are only two 'Rules'.

SECOND: Be happy

FIRST: Be

GW

All the best for 2025!!

Dilemmas of the Week - GW18

 

Throughout this hectic December, the main uncertainties are likely to surround 'rest rotations' - and the sudden realisation of 'totting up' suspensions -  as much as injuries. But with such a tight turnaround after last weekend's games, there's been little - if any - team news released for the upcoming 'gameweek', so uncertainties of all kinds abound even more than usual.

And even if we can (mostly) trust the modern professional footballer not to go overboard with the festive eating, they're likely to have had only light training this week - so, the level of tactical preparation for this round of games is likely to be low. And it is inevitable that many players will get rested - though it's just about completely impossible to predict which ones! As I warned at the start of the month, this makes it a particularly rash time to be considering using either of the bonus chips, because you just can't be confident that some of your players - perhaps even your star performers - won't be missing from the lineups; and even if they are all present, you can't be confident in how well they'll perform, when the teams around them might be somewhat unfamiliar, somewhat below par. The immediately post-Christmas games are almost always some of the most eccentric and unpredictable of the whole year: a few teams may do surprisingly well, but some will almost certainly flounder abysmally, and almost all will likely be well below their best. You just can't tell what's going to happen: Liverpool could lose to Leicester tomorrow evening!

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 18?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

The one BIG injury issue, of course, is Bukayo Saka, who limped out of the weekend's game against Palace with what looked like quite a serious hamstring problem. His owners were no doubt hopeful that his usually superhuman powers of recovery might mean only a short absence was likely, but Arteta has muttered darkly that he might be missing for "several weeks" (although we can't usually trust anything he says!). I fear we must anticipate that he'll be out until sometime next month at the earliest. And a big sell-off was almost immediate: 1.75 million managers have already dropped him, and his price has dipped by 100k, must be poised to drop again. So, alas, we need to offload him promptly, to avoid a loss of squad value; at least he should be quite a bit cheaper when we want to buy him back.

Brentford's Kristoffer Ajer is also likely to be out for several weeks after suffering an ankle injury in the game against Forest. And Mads Roerslev, who picked up quite a bad cut on his forehead in that game, could also be a doubt - which would leave the club with very few defenders available.

Mats Wieffer may be a slight starting doubt for Brighton, after coming off early against West Ham with some quad tightness.

Fulham's Sasa Lukic and Sander Berge may both be struggling to shake off 'knocks' they picked up against Southampton. However, Emile Smith Rowe, whose unexpected absence in that game was apparently due to a minor injury in training rather than a tactical or disciplinary omission, might be back in contention for the trip to Stamford Bridge.

Matheus Nunes' omission against Villa was apparently due to an injury picked up in training (although it had seemed very possible that he'd just been dropped, after having a bit of a stinker as a makeshift left-back in the Manchester derby the week before), which is likely to keep him out of contention again this week.

Matthijs De Ligt's absence last weekened was due to 'illness', which makes him doubtful for the Boxing Day trip to Wolves too (good news for Harry Maguire owners - both of them!).

Wolves' Mario Lemina was another whose unexplained absence at the weekend was down to a training ground knock, and he might be available again to face United.

In better news,.... Eberechi Eze is said to be close to a comeback for Palace, though perhaps only coming off the bench in the Bournemouth game.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Ashley Young, Sam Morsy, Nicolas Dominguez, and Lucas Paqueta are this week's occupants of the 'sin bin' for accumulating five bookings (though presumably no-one owns any of these!). 

But Matheus Cunha somehow still hasn't been banned....??

And Maxwel Cornet, on loan at Southampton (who knew??), is ineligible to face parent club West Ham.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Well, poor Danny Ward had an absolutely dreadful game in goal against Wolves on Sunday. Van Nistelrooy will probably stand by him, if Mads Hermansen still isn't fit to return, but - it doesn't look like he'll be keeping the place for long, or contributing any worthwhile points while he does; so anyone who'd rushed to buy him as the cheapest starting keeper should be reconsidering their rashness.

Nearly 190,000 FPL managers have dropped Ollie Watkins after his omission at the weekend; but there's really no reason to suppose that was anything other than a one-off rest rotation. People don't yet seem to have responded quite so negatively to Raul's replacement by Rodrigo Muniz - although he's probably much more of an ongoing selection doubt, having only scored 1 goal (albeit a very good one) in his last 9 league outings.

And Spurs's woefully wobbly form - and the increasingly erratic behaviour of their manager - must surely make any of their players a very dodgy choice at the moment. James Maddison looks to be in tremendous form, yet somehow doesn't enjoy Big Ange's full confidence - he was again pulled off well before the hour against Liverpool, although he had looked much their best player.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, many people are getting rampantly excited about the excellent performances of Morgan Rogers and Jhon Duran. But it should be noted that City were absolutely dreadful in that game - really looking like a relegation candidate rather than a title contender! Rogers's confidence is sky-high, and I think there are encouraging signs that he's starting to play much higher up the pitch (perhaps liberated to do so by Kamara's return making the team stronger in the middle of the park, and giving them much more resilience against possible counter-attacks); but for me, he'll need a few more performances like that one before he can really enter the conversation for the cheap fifth midfielder spot. And Duran, I fear, is just a little too expensive for a third forward pick; and really can't be a first or second pick unless he does become Emery's preferred starter (which, I will confidently say, ain't going to happen [Oops!! Well, I still stand by that as a general prediction; I think there must be some fitness issue with Watkins at the moment, prompting a limitation of his minutes. It really seems incredibly unlikely that Duran will permanently displace him as first-choice centre-forward, however strong his goalscoring form looks.]).

Jacob Murphy has looked Newcastle's best player in his last couple of outings, and is probably the strongest competition to recently popular Enzo Fernandez and Amad Diallo for the 4th/5th midfelder slots.

However, I think the absolutely outstanding midfield performance of the weekend was from Dominik Szoboszlai. He is thriving in a freer, more advanced 'No. 10' role and - if he keeps a regular start - could, I think, be the strongest replacement option for Saka. (So far, only the rather unimpressive total of 55,000 managers have seen fit to acquire him this week....)

Jordan Pickford was extremely lucky not to get sent off against Chelsea on Sunday; but he and the Everton defence really seem to have recovered last season's remarkable clean sheet mojo over the last month or so, and are all becoming tempting picks again; perhaps especially Vitaly Mykolenko.who tends to offer greater potential for an occasional attacking contribution than the others.

We saw an even more oustanding goalkeeping performance from the returning Aaron Ramsdale (despite his broken finger evidently being not yet completely healed). Southampton have always shown potential going forward; and, since they have been hampered by a particularly disastrous manager until now, I think there's a very good chance of a strong 'new manager bounce' for them - and they do have a reasonably nice fixture run over the coming month. Since his price has fallen to 4.4 million, Ramsdale might become a tempting choice as a back-up keeper for occasional rotation.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Merry Christmas!!

 

MERRY CHRISTMAS, EVERYONE!!

And may 2025 bring us all better things.... especially better VAR decisions!!