GW5 - What did we learn?

 

Chelsea are finally settling into some sort of structure and composure under the new Maresca regime. (Mind you, Lopategui's West Ham didn't put up much of a fight in this one!)  Nicolas Jackson is hugely improved this season (though he always was handy in fast breakaways leading to one-on-ones with the keeper), and is looking so full of confidence at the moment that many FPL managers will be considering getting him in instead of Isak (or Havertz or Solanke or Mateta) as their second/third striker pick (though I still maintain you ought to go as cheap as possible for the third slot; and not expect to play him very often). And Palmer continues to be majestic; I was initially cautious as to whether he could possibly get anywhere near the performance levels and FPL points returns of his sensational breakout season last year, but it is already looking very much as if he could not merely equal last season's tally, but exceed it. For me, he's probably more of a must-have than Salah. It was a robustly physical game at times, with Palmer and Bowen in particular getting kicked up in the air a few times; hopefully they won't be suffering any serious consequences from that treatment - but that must be one of the major worries for their owners (Mitoma's too; he's probably the next most kicked player in the league right now).  West Ham, alas, still look pretty clueless. Paqueta is a shadow of last season's playmaker-in-chief, and they seem to be relying solely on swift counter-attacks, led by the pace, energy, and guile of Kudus and Bowen; unfortunately, those two are both more support strikers than outright goalscorers, and prefer to play off the flanks - so, there's often no focal point for these attacks. When Fullkrug's ready to play, maybe things will turn around. But at the moment, I suspect some Hammers fans are starting to suffer regrets about letting David Moyes go prematurely.

Nothing to complain of in the refereeing here.... except that Fofana's tugging on Summerville's wrist was a pretty clear penalty (or at least a potential penalty; maybe the offence started outside the area?)  And again.... VAR was 'on a break'?? Is there any point having it at all, if it's going to be this passive and timorous now??

I worry about Brentford still; despite having taken an early lead from Mbeumo's superb hooked volley (he's another one who's become a bit of an FPL bandwagon now; I was tipping him as a top pick before the start of the season), they couldn't really live with Spurs. They're often very flakey at the back, and often very, very careless in giving the ball away. At least their tough early run of fixtures is over now. But I'm starting to wonder if Thomas Frank, and the squad that hasn't seen many changes in the last few years, are getting a bit stale now. He's still a great coach; but sometimes you reach a point at a club where.... your time is up. Spurs are finally starting to find some fluency. With Maddison, Son, Solanke, and Johnson all suddenly looking very sharp again, they could be a very dangerous team - though I still have concerns about Vicario's comical puniness in asserting himself at set pieces, and Romero's apparent grumpiness and lack interest on many recent occasions.... and the incessant risk posed by that very, very high line Ange is so wedded to. I suspect Spurs will be a super-entertaining but somewhat inconsistent team, one that often concedes as many goals as it scores; and, while they look on paper as if they should be capable of challenging for the top four, will in practice perhaps struggle a bit to scrabble into the top six or seven.

Nketiah had a lively debut for Palace, and would have been on the scoresheet but for a very smart save from Onana, who then athletically blocked the shot from the rebound too. And Eze put a good chance just wide. Both sides looked far too open in the middle, but short of incisiveness up front. Clean sheet points from both teams were an unexpected - and really undeserved - bonus for FPL owners of their players; neither defence really looked all that convincing. But that's probably good news for owners of Henderson or Onana, who are in fine shot-stopping form... and look like they'll be getting plenty of practice.

Newcastle are a team who, like Brentford, appear to have lost energy under their present management. Eddie's rather newer there than Frank is at Brentford, so I hope he can find a way to refresh things. A lot of their difficulties are down to ongoing injury problems, but... Newcastle really have looked pretty poor for most of this season so far, especially in defence. At least the form of Jacob Murphy and Harvey Barnes gives some cause for encouragement. Fulham - with Raul Jimenez suddenly looking possibly back to his best, after years in the doldrums since that dreadful head injury - are growing in confidence and fluency with every game. Emile Smith Rowe is richly rewarding all those who took a punt on him possibly being the best budget midfielder of the year when his transfer from Arsenal was announced; and Adama Traore is playing the best football of his career. I still have doubts about their defence, but I am starting to feel that they might make a step up this year and get properly into the fight for the European places.

What is up with Wolves? Their defence was one of the best in the league last year, certainly among the lower-half clubs; but this year, they're all over the place. Sure, they've lost a lynchpin of that defence in Kilman, and letting long-time keeper Jose Sa go as well has probably been disruptive. But they ought to be better than this. I like Gary O'Neill; I want to believe that he can turn this around - but we need to see some green shoots of recovery soon, or we're going to start hearing gossip about the owners sounding out possible replacements in a month or two, I fear. Villa were better in attack than we've yet seen them; but that might be largely because Wolves were so easy to carve open, rather than because anything much has changed or improved with Emery's men. Alas and alack, Villa have become the focus of waves of mass hysteria in FPL-land: three of their players have proved very popular early season picks - wildly optimistic punts, really: Duran, who is potentially a great striker, but only gets minutes off the bench; Rogers, who is potentially a great support striker or No. 10, but is too unselfish and plays too deep to have much chance of claiming any assists (lots of 'pre-assists' - but you get nothing for those!) or goals to earn FPL points; and Konsa, who is just a good-not-great, non-attacking defender with a club who don't often manage a clean sheet. This week, they all managed to pick up substantial points. Big deal; they're still nowhere near the top of the points charts, even within their own narrow price category. But all the irrational and impulsive and unself-critical minions of FPL-land are all doing their 'I told you so' dance. Makes you sick!

Everton yet again fail to hang on to a lead. Even more than - as last season - being completely unable to score (at least they seem to have got over that jinx..). - I fear that is the mark of a side who are bound for the Championship. Leicester need a bit more incisiveness in attack, but they look reasonably sound in other areas. I think they probably will go back down eventually; but they'll make much more of a fight of it than Sheffield and Burnley did last year. Ndiaye was the big revelation here, giving a real firecracker performance. (This may be bad news for all those who piled in for Dominic Calvert-Lewin on the basis of a couple of good finishes. I can see the two of them sharing Everton's goal haul now, whether they're on the pitch together, or separately....)

Southampton are improving slowly; they actually show quite a lot of promise going forward (and I could get interested in Adam Lallana as a fifth midfield pick, as he is likely to be the architect of the majority of what few goals they might score; his angled pass through the Ipswich defence, and Dibling's first touch and smooth finish, were as good as anything we saw all weekend). But they're still a bit rocky at the back. I would like to think that Ipswich are much the best of this year's promoted sides, and surely ought to stay up, perhaps even finish quite respectably lower mid-table. But with performances like that, I fear they'll be skirting the bottom three all year. They showed a lot of resilience and determination to keep pushing for the late equaliser - but offered very little apart from that. Still a lot of work to do, Mr McKenna.

Bournemouth are another team whose chances I'd quite fancied, but they haven't so far found the defensive cohesion that made them so formidable for much of last season. (In particular, I'd fancied Kepa to be potentially one of the best 4.5 keepers; but it's looking like he might need a while to settle in at his new club...) And against Liverpool, they weren't going to have much chance to attack. Slot decided to give us an unwelcome surprise by again omitting Jota, for no stated reason that I've heard (he was left out in the midweek game against Atalanta too; so, that's a bit worrying....). Nunez did OK in his stead, and scored a screamer. I think Jota's finishing and his interplay with his attacking teammates is far, far better, and he should be first choice No. 9 if he's fit - but maybe Slot doesn't agree? (Happily, I switched out Jota for Diaz a couple of weeks ago; but it's tearing-the=hair-out time for anyone who still owns him.)

Brighton v Forest was an open, end-to-end affair: two teams who have no defensive solidity in midfield, and so are constantly wide open to quick counter-attacks. If they carry on playing like this, I don't see either of them finishing in the top half; and in fact, although Forest are showing signs of improvement now under Nuno, I suspect they'll still be involved in the relegation struggle in the last few months of the season. Welbeck's free-kick was very sweet, but Sels was really at fault for it, being slightly out of position and allowing himself to be completely unsighted by the wall; he somewhat made amends later by thwarting Welbeck's attempt to recreate that Archie Gemmill goal... but I suspect FPL managers who had fancied him as a promising 4.5-million-pound goalkeeper pick may be reconsidering.

Nothing to query in the refereeing on this one. The Forest penalty was a little bit soft, but Baleba's coming-together with Hudson-Odoi was clumsy, and you just about always see those sorts of contacts being punished like that. And the Gibbs-White sending off was absolutely clearcut: it was arguably a straight red offence, and certainly worthy of a second yellow, after he'd already got himself booked for a stupidly over-eager tussle earlier in the game (my main reservation about MGW is that he can be a little hot-headed at times). Yes, he got a little of the ball, but he absolutely flattened Joao Pedro, coming in from a long way behind, with a clumsy scisscor challenge that swept both the opponent's legs away; the contact on his standing leg, folding it between Gibbs-White's legs, was particularly heavy, and could easily have broken it. The only weirdness here was.... well, OK, there were THREE: 1)  The ref unbelievably ruled it a fair challenge, miming he was satisfied that he'd got the ball 'cleanly', despite wiping out the opponent; 2)  VAR yet again declined to say anything, despite the challenge being potentially a 'violent conduct'/'endangering an opponent'/straight red card kind of situation, which is supposed to be a prime part of their remit; and 3) the ref was apparently overruled on this by the 4th Official, Anthony Taylor??!!  Good for him, justice done. But I didn't even know he was allowed to do that; I can't ever recall it happening before!  Surely the 4th Official is only there to liaise between the referee and the coaching staffs, and has no authority to intervene in on-pitch matters??

And finally, THE BIG ONE....

Arsenal continue to impress with their pragmatism rather than their flair, grinding out another painful result without making anyone fall in love with them (apart from a few tactics nerds, and students of advanced bus-parking...). After they'd worked so hard to protect their slender lead in the face of overwhelming City pressure through the second half, they no doubt feel a little hard done by to concede an equaliser so late in stoppage time - but most neutrals surely feel that was well deserved. The big conundrum for FPL managers is the growing confusion about what Arsenal's back-line is likely to be. Timber has been playing too well to drop; but Calafiori is too expensive - and too good! - to leave out; well, Timber can - at a push - play on either flank, so does that mean Ben White is now set to miss out - at least occasionally?  I suspect White was just being rested after the Atalanta game, maybe 'felt something' afterwards; he is surely nailed on the right, if fit. After his spectacular debut, I would think Calafiori might be favourite for some starts on the left.... and Timber will be the one to miss out. But who's to say? These are just my speculations. There is a danger, I fear, that Arteta may become so intoxicated by the realisation that this is the one area of the pitch where he now has some decent cover that he may become as rotation-crazy in defence as his esteemed mentor - which would be very bad news for all FPL enthusiasts! Let us keep our fingers crossed that won't happen.

City's main curveball was suddenly dropping the thus-far excellent Rico Lewis, in favour of Kyle Walker. I assume Pep felt he might need the pace and experience of the veteran full-back to smother the threat of Martinelli. But I would venture that this turned out to be a mistaken selection; Arsenal were in fact prepared to cede so much of the possession to City, even before the sending-off, that Lewis's advanced playmaker role would probably have been more productive for them. And Walker actually had a bit of a dog of a game, falling asleep rather on the first goal (complaints about the ref restarting the game too quickly are overstated; that's a matter of discretion, commonsense courtesy rather than a strict rule; and the fact is, Walker was just being far too slow about getting back into position - although he did manage to catch up with Martinelli before he cut the ball back inside to Calafiori, but just chose not step out to close him down more closely...), and losing Gabriel far too easily at the corner that produced the second. I am very much hoping that Lewis will continue to be preferred as the more regular starter. But again - who knws? We must wait and see on that one a while longer.

Arteta, of course, always whinges about the referee; but I don't think he's got a leg to stand on with regard to the sending-off. Trossard had a silly rush of blood to the head, and could easily have been given a straight red for the violent and unnecessary charge in the defender's back; or separate yellow cards for that foul and then immediately booting the ball away. A second yellow for such an egregious double offence was inescapable. There were rumblings of discontent in some quarters too about the second goal, but again, that complaint didn't seem to have any substance: attacking players are allowed to stand close to the keeper to restrict his movement - it's up to Ederson to be more assertive in barging them out of the way. I thought they had more of a claim for Calafiori's interference with Gvardiol on the goal-line at the same time; you are not allowed to drape your arm over a defender's shoulder to hold him down! But the Croatian didn't seem to try to make anything of it, apart from very briefly looking a bit rueful; if you want a foul given, you have to shout and scream for it.

Equally, as I said above, while Michael Oliver was at fault - in terms of politeness rather than obligatory protocol - for restarting the game a little abruptly, I don't think that was decisive in leading to the first Arsenal goal; it was really more a case of Walker dawdling (stopping to kvetch with Trossard about something??) to get back to his position. The only possible gripe about the refereeing, for me, was Haaland's escaping a card - arguably perhaps a red one! - for throwing the ball at the back of Gabriel's head after the equaliser, and then getting involved in some more unnecessary and ugly argy-bargey just a few seconds later. (72% of Fantasy managers breathed a huge sigh of relief when those two incidents were let go with a single stern word from Oliver....)

Also, I have to say, while Arsenal were doggedly good, City were mystifyingly bad: they showed no imagination at all in trying to break down the deep block. Foden was brought on far too late, and wasn't given enough initiative to lead the attack from a little deeper (in the absence of DeBruyne, they should surely look to him as their unpicker of locks); the central defenders were relied on to set the tempo of play, and look for paths into the attackers, but couldn't do so; and the wingers never once tried to go around their defender on the outside until Grealish won the crucial corner in the dying minutes. Bizarre, unfathomable!! Pep may be one of the greatest coaches of all time, but he still has 'off' days.... and some of them are really, really off.  And failing to effectively defend the same corner-kick routine twice within a few minutes?! WTF???  (OK, maybe that's on the players rather than Pep. But this was not vintage City!)

The other big story of that match was, of course, Rodri's knee injury. There doesn't seem to have been any further news on that since, which leaves us in uncertainty as to how long he might be out. I doubt it was an ACL injury, since he didn't look to be in that much pain, and was able to limp off unaided; I wonder if it might be one of the ligaments or tendons on the outside of the joint that he's damaged - usually a much less serious proposition. Given how dramatically City's defensive record - and win-ratio - tends to decline whenever they've been without Rodri, this could have a momentous impact on their season. Kovacic or Gundogan might get a more regular and important role now, and could enter FPL thinking for the fifth midfield spot. But City's defensive assets just slumped in value!

A little bit of Zen (8)

“We cannot control the wind, but we can direct the sail.”

Kosho Uchiyama

Dilemmas of the Week - GW5

 Every week, we need to take a long hard look at our squad, and ask ourselves if we want to make any changes....

If we do see a pressing case for a change here or there, we then need to weigh that against the possible advantage of saving our transfer - 'rolling' it over to use in a future week. This option achieves greater tactical complexity this season with the new rule that allows us to save up as many as 5 Free Transfers to use at one time. If we ever manage to do that, it would in effect be a 'mini Wildcard', enabling us to conduct a major squad overhaul in one fell swoop (particularly useful as there are a handful of 'premium' players who cost so much more than everyone else that you can't conveniently move them in and out of your squad without making multiple other changes as well).

Then, of course, occasionally multiple changes may seem so inescapable that we have to consider whether it's worth spending points on 1 or 2 extra transfers (a tactic which obviously deserves a whole post of its own one day).

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 5?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Not moved out, surely (although the lack of news on Martin Odegaard's recovery timeline must be a worry for the relatively small numbers who own him; and more generally for the owners of all other Arsenal assets, all of whose returns are likely to be diminished during Odegaard's absence...), but there are a lot of vexing 'yellow flag' uncertainties this week: Isak, Watkins, DeBruyne, Ait-Nouri, Joao Pedro and Calvert-Lewin chief amongst them - though these all seem like quite minor issues that might magically disappear on Saturday morning. Let's hope so, if we were relying on any of these as a starter. [Although the number of people piling in for DC-L on the basis of a couple of lively games - after two or three years of incessant injuries and profound goal-blindness!! - is the epitome of reactive nonsense; I don't see him being anywhere near even a 3rd striker pick.... quite yet.]

The only major new issue is Yoane Wissa, who suffered a fairly serious ankle injury against City last weekend, and is likely to miss at least two months. [But I can't imagine too many people had him, even as a 3rd choice striker??]

Oh, and I'd missed this at first; but it seems Alisson also has a muscle problem, and looks doubtful for this weekend... and maybe next? Again, not something you should be wasting transfers on, if it's a very short-term problem; you need a good back-up keeper for circumstances like this.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Popular 4.0-million-pound bench-filler Taylor Harwood-Bellis was dropped last week; but that might have been a fitness issue, and I gather he's expected to start again this week, or soon, anyway. The greater worry with him is that he's not yet had much opportunity to show his attacking prowess, while Southampton have been so poor defensively that he looks likely to register negative points for goals conceded every single week - and is thus a bit of a hazardous asset even to carry on your bench.

Gakpo's lively performance for Liverpool against AC may have raised some uncomfortable doubts as to whether he might replace Diaz (or Jota?) in the EPL starting line-up, or at least get some rotation with them. But I think they've been good enough so far to keep their starts, and Gakpo is going to have to content himself with a super-sub role until one of them gets injured.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

A lot of people seemed to have been getting cold feet about Isak - just because he's disappointed their inflated expectations of him (although he's still got a very decent 17 points so far, despite some tough fixtures, and one match ruined for his side by an unjust, early sending-off....). That is just reactive stupidity; he is certainly going to be among the top three strikers this season (and is, arguably, in fact the best finisher of the lot), and absolutely worth holding on to through any brief 'drought'. But these impulsive transfer flows - transient sheep stampedes - quickly reverse themselves; everyone was dropping Watkins in GW3/4, and now, after a couple of goals, they're all piling back in for him - nonsense!

There might be more reasonable fears about Arsenal players; the whole team has to be restructured without Odegaard, and lacks incisiveness. Saka and Havertz, in particular, are likely to be much less productive with their creative fulcrum missing. Many people had doubts about this next little run of fixtures anyway - a 'title-decider' clash with City, an away trip to Newcastle, and then a potentially tricky London derby with Fulham; the prospects of big returns for any of their players in these games are now looking quite slim. But it seems Odegaard isn't going to be absent for much more than a month, and you ought to be able to ride out a problem of that kind without splashing transfers (this is why you need a good bench!); a few weeks of possibly weak returns for Arsenal assets shouldn't be a reason to offload them.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Emile Smith Rowe is indeed emerging as much the most promising of the budget midfield picks (I don't think he's going to be this year's Cole Palmer, but he might be an Anthony Gordon!); and if you didn't have him from the start of the season, you seriously need to consider going in for him now - before his price goes up any more.

And although this would be a highly risky and speculative move at this stage.... fortune often favours the brave: I think Jadon Sancho is the most interesting of the late loans/transfers in this window, and he had a very lively debut at Chelsea last week. I have a strong hunch that, if he can secure a regular start there, he could well prove to be the best 6.5 asset this year. (You heard it here first....)

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Luck-o-Meter (4)

 

I feel a superstitious hesitancy to say this, but..... the refereeing/VAR checks are perhaps slowly getting a bit better.

This, at least, is the first week of the season so far where there haven't been any egregiously bad decisions that skewed the results of games. Stephens's red card against Man Utd, and Coady's clumsy trip on Ismaila Sarr to gift Palace a penalty were both pretty uncontentious decisions. There was perhaps some doubt about Southampton's penalty, since Dalot had begun his reckless slide when both the ball and Dibling were still a little outside the penalty area - but it was an extended contact (perhaps two or three separate contacts between the players in fact), and it looked as though even the earliest part of this occurred right above the line at the side of the box, and the final, decisive element of the trip was well inside. For this one, I think it would have seemed very harsh if the penalty had not been given; and it was surely too tight a call for the VAR team to feel they had any reason to question the referee's initial award. Archer made a pig's ear of the spot-kick, so it didn't matter anyway.

And there was also the unfortunate spectacle of Anthony Taylor - usually one of the league's best referees - losing the plot rather in the Bournemouth v Chelsea game, and handing out a record-breaking 14 yellow cards... in a match that wasn't even all that physical, let alone dirty?! Aberrations like that can also have a big impact on FPL points tallies - and not just in the immediate gameweek, because many of those unluckily carded players will reach suspension thresholds earlier, perhaps miss crucial games, and so miss out on further points for us at a later date.

The only possible refereeing/VAR goof of the week, I think, was the failure to award a penalty for Max Kilman's bumbling into the back of Adama Traore. Certainly the contact was very light, and Traore did go down 'easily' (whenever I see the big guy hit the deck like that, I am reminded of the moment a few years back when Patrick Bamford was caught on camera plainly mouthing to the referee: "Oh, come on! He's built like a brick shithouse - how did I bring him down??"). But there was definitely some contact on the back of his left leg. And when an attacking player loses his balance in tbe box because of a contact on his leg from behind - that's always a penalty.  The worry here is that, yet again, the VAR team declined to do anything about the incident. In general, I think the lack of VAR interventions this year has been a great improvement on the welter of unnecessary interruptions and delays we suffered last year; but the pendulum has clearly swung too far the other way - the VAR team now seems so fearful to intervene about anything that they might as well not be there at all. We're still struggling to find an ideal balance on the use of this review facility.

Well, except for correcting the occasional 'offside' mistake, perhaps...There was a surprising amount of doubt and dismay expressed by the punditry about the offside call against Mateta's opening goal being overturned by VAR, but it looked pretty obvious to me: the defender on the near-side (Justin, I think?) was clearly a bit further back than the guys in the middle, and as he stretched out a foot to try to block Mitchell's cross, he was in effect moving the 'line' a yard or so further towards the goal than most people - including the linesman on the far side - realised it should have been. The only problem here was the 'decision photo' apparently released by the VAR team subsequently was taken from a ridiculous angle, far behind the line of play (and with deep shadows across everything!), such that you couldn't clearly see anyone's relative position in regard to the bye-line. There had been an angle, initially shown on TV highlights, which, although not completely in line with play, was close enough to give you a fairly convincing picture of Mateta's having been onside.

The unstoppable Erling Haaland continues to score for fun. I think this was his best performance of the season so far, and he was actually UN-lucky not to claim a history-making third successive hattrick: he pulled a good save out of Flekken, crashed a shot against the near post, and had another effort blocked by Collins... could easily have had 4 or 5. (I expect Arteta to bring on his best 'Frustrating Pep' gameplan and grind out a dour goalless draw next week; but after that, the lanky Viking will probably be back to sticking 2 or 3 in the net almost every week....);

Like last week, goalkeepers, on balance, came out on top, with Muric, Vicario, Johnsone, Pope, and - especially - Raya also producing some outstanding saves. And of course, it's quite a rare event to see even one penalty save, so to have two in the same week was a real freak occurrence, and a major stroke of good luck for owners of Onana or Sanchez. (Rather more so in the case of Sanchez, I would say; since we know that Onana is an outstanding shot-stopper, and was one of the top performers for 'saves' points last season. Sanchez, on the other hand, really hasn't looked very convincing in the Chelsea goal until now; and, with the flakiness of their defence so far, there's really very little reason for anyone to have had him as their starting FPL keeper.)  

Likewise, a goal by a defender is quite a rarity these days; yet this week, Gabriel, Schar, and De Ligt all got on the scoresheet - making them the major FPL differentiators of the gameweek.

The number of goals from distance this weekend was also extraordinary. Jhon Duran produced an early contender for 'Goal of the Month' - and indeed, perhaps for 'Goal of the Season' - with his 25-yard screamer. But we also saw great goals from just outside the penalty area from Harvey Barnes, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Dwight McNeil.... and even Marcus Rashford.

And there might have been even more goals this week, with an astonishing number of good efforts clattering the woodwork or whistling just wide.  Diaz, Gordon, Strand Larsen, Delap, Calvert-Lewin, and perhaps especially Marcus Tavernier - and their owners - can feel particularly hard done-by.

The disruption caused by the international break (luckily not too many injuries; but a certain amount of fatigue for several players - and a loss of momentum inevitable from having a two-week break from club training), compounded by it coming this time directly before the first main round of games in the European competitions, led to a few unexpected team selections, and a lot or early withdrawals. Pep Guardiola and Eddie Howe made double tactical switches at half-time; while Slot and a few others swapped out players just shy of the hour mark, robbing some FPL managers of precious extra points for a 'full appearance'. One of the most bizarre points quirks of the weekend was that Luis Diaz, withdrawn from play at the same time as Diogo Jota, wound up with 3 points to Jota's 1 just because he walked off the pitch slightly more slowly - a difference of 10 seconds or so in stepping over the touchline to complete the substitution resulted in three times as many points. [Mr Slot seems to have a penchant for making his first substitutions around 58 or 59 minutes; this might become a reason to avoid having too many Liverpool players....]

And we had a few unexpected results, with Liverpool in particular turning in a pretty dreadful performance; but Chelsea, Newcastle, Spurs and Brighton were also well below their best.

Looking at the 'Team of the Week', again it's one where few people will have had more than half of these players. Indeed, outside of the forward line (Haaland, Watkins, and Mateta are clearly three of the best four or five strikers available this season), and Gabriel... and maybe Dalot at the back, most of this eleven are extremely low-owned.

So, even though there wasn't much bad refereeing to mess up the points returns this week (thank heavens), there were rather a lot of exceptional events that have quite a distorting effect on FPL outcomes: outstanding goals, outstanding saves, amazing near-misses, early substitutions, missed penalties, etc., etc.  Perhaps only a 4 or 5 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter... rather than at least 8 for each of the opening three gameweeks. At least that's some sort of progress....

GW4 - what did we learn?

Although, as I remarked a couple of weeks back, Rashford is showing signs of recovering some of his mojo once more (though not yet anywhere near the electrifying form he discovered in the second half of the 2022-23 season), Manchester United are still not looking very convincing. Their defence is slowly starting to look a bit more solid; Onana's in fine form; and their two attaking full-backs might start to produce occasionally. But the midfield is still a gaping void (can Ugarte 'fix' that? I have my doubts); and Ten Hag obviously doesn't know who his best attacking line-up is (a dilemma that's only going to become more complicated with Hojlund's imminent return from injury).... although it does seem strange that Garnacho can ever be the one omitted. Southampton were much more promising in this game; in fact, they were completely on top for the first twenty minutes or so, and, if Archer had managed to put that penalty away, they probably could have gone on to win the match. But they're still looking abysmal in defence; but for a string of fine saves by Ramsdale, they might eventually have gone down by a landslide, even to this lacklustre United side.

Ipswich are, for me, still looking much the most compact and dangerous of the promoted sides, and were good enough to knock thus-far buoyant - but also massively overrated - Brighton out of their stride. They needed Muric to pull off a string of excellent saves to keep them in the game, but had their own moments too (notably Delap smashing a shot against the post), and looked more and more comfortable as time went on. Hurzeler is doing a fantastic job with the rather thin resources at his disposal this season - but I think the wheels are going to fall off Brighton's bright start very soon.

Palace are slowly settling down again, after the transfer window upheavals. Their inability to keep clean sheets is a big concern to the substantial number of FPL managers who went for Munoz (or Mitchell or Guehi) in their squads; but I think Glasner will be able to get them playing better soon; and Henderson still looks the best 4.5 keeper, for me, although he didn't have his best game here. It's reassuring to see Mateta find his scoring boots again; and Eddie Nketiah also had a very lively start for his new club (and it's exciting to see that Glasner thinks he can play at the same time as Mateta, in a wider role; there must have been some concerns that Eddie might only be a back-up choice as centre-forward, or would, at best, get stuck in a regular rotation with Mateta). Jamie Vardy is looking unreasonaby lively for a 37-year-old, and is likely to become an even more popular third striker pick after this performance.

The Fulham v West Ham match was a rather drab affair, with little to enjoy or get excited about, apart from an excellent pair of assists from Smith Rowe and Bowen. Many FPL managers are no doubt disconsolate that the young Brazilian Muniz was taking too long to rediscover his scoring touch, and appears to have now lost his start to Raul Jimenez (though Jimenez himself has struggled for fitness or consistency over the last few years, so that narrative might change again very quickly). I remain sceptical about the 'sheep' enthusiasm for Adama Traore that was quickly building after his goal in GW3; I really don't see him being good enough to keep his start in this side. And I continue to be concerned about how much West Ham are struggling to find any rhythm under Lopategui; they look to have more than enough great players to mount a decent challenge for the European places - but it's not happening yet.

Liverpool's wobble this weekend didn't come as any surprise to me; I've been saying all season that the sharpness of their front three seems to me to have been masking some basic weaknesses with the structure and personnel in the middle; that starting midfield three just haven't looked all that convincing. And this week, the 'trident' had a bit of an off day too. No reason for alarm bells just yet; but I think Slot's still got quite a bit to do before this side can be consistently dominating enough to challenge City for the title. Forest were somehow transformed here; but the BBC highlights were too brief for me to work out quite why - was it the impact of Ward-Prowse's introduction (seems unlikely; I barely noticed him on the ball), or of Moreno's at left-back (he seemed to make a much more substantial contributiion)? Or was it just Hudson-Odoi and Elanga finally 'clicking' again, rediscovering their synergy from the end of last season, after a rather lacklustre first few games from the pair of them? I still think Forest lack the quality to stay up; but it's starting to look as if Nuno will at least get them to put up a good fight.

Dear, oh dear, there is no stopping Erling Haaland at the moment, is there? This was probably his best performance of the season so far, and he really was a bit unlucky not to claim a history-making third successive hattrick. It really is feeling very difficult to go without him in FPL while he's playing this well; but all strikers are streaky - and this super-hot form of his might evaporate at any moment (probably the moment I bring him in....)  I wouldn't worry too much yet about the tactical early withdrawal of Rico Lewis; switching him back to the left side was probably a mistake by Pep - but Lewis's FPL owners might take comfort from the fact that this might seem to indicate that Pep now prefers him to both Walker and Gvardiol (Walker was surely only getting a token start to keep him match-fit for possible use in the Champions League). The return of Rodri is a great relief to City fans - and a source of despair for just about everyone else. Brentford put up a spirited fight (they often seem to raise their game against the top teams), and were really on top enough in the early phase of the game to have got themselves a dangerous lead. After next week's also potentially tough away game at Spurs, I think it will be time to consider getting in one or two of their players.

The FPL Sheep are, of course, getting wildly over-excited about Dominic Calvert-Lewin's apparent rediscovery of his 'magic boots' (or forehead...). He is indeed suddenly looking very sharp again, almost back to his best of three or four years ago; but.... it should be noted that he also botched a golden chance for a third goal, which would probably have put the result beyond doubt for Everton. There also seems to be an upsurge of interest in Michael Keane, which is even more misguided, since Everton keep bizarrely blowing comfortable leads in the closing stages of the game... and he surely won't keep his start once Branthwaite is fit again, anyway. It is encouraging for Everton fans that the team has started to become a dangerous attacking side again; but if that has been at the cost of them becoming woefully leaky at the back, they'll still be deep in relegation trouble for most of the season. I wouldn't consder going in for any of their players until things settle down for them a bit; and if I did, only McNeil or Branthwaite might be worth a punt, I think.

It is, of course, very reassuring for the 24% of FPL managers who own Ollie Watkins that he's finally got amongst the goals again. But that should never really have been in doubt: he hasn't been playing badly so far, just hasn't had many chances fall to him. He is now looking very, very sharp; and, as the team behind him improves, I expect him to probably finish out on his own as the second highest scorer in the league this season. And if Jhon Duran keeps up these super-sub performances, he's going to become more and more popular as a third striker pick in FPL. Morgan Rogers, though, has probably exhausted the patience of those who took a punt on him as a cheap fifth midfielder at the start of the season; he has demonstrated (yet again) the sad truth that some players can play extremely well without ever producing any FPL points.

Bournemouth did well to contain Chelsea, who, while not quite 'on it' after the international break, nevertheless still made a lot of good chances. Nicolas Jackson didn't play at all badly; and I don't think one goal from Nkunku, however well taken, is going to boost him to being a preferred starter at No. 9 (though that's what a lot of the sheep are thinking). I'm far more excited about the possible contributions of Jadon Sancho. We all know how good he can be when he's happy with his environment; if Maresca trusts him with a regular start - on the left or the right - I think he might emerge as one of the great value picks of this season; though, at this stage, that's still a mighty big 'IF'. (And it was utterly bizarre that Anthony Taylor ended up showing a record-breaking 14 yellow cards in a game that wasn't unduly physical, let alone 'niggly'!!)

Arsenal had to ride their luck once more, not looking terribly convincing again (though, of course, this week they can blame the absence of their two midfield lynchpins, Odegaard and Rice), and needing a header from a corner to nick the 3 points; but grinding out the wins even when you're not playing that well is the mark of a strong title-chasing side. Arteta paid Postecoglou the compliment of adopting an extremely defensive approach, allowing Spurs fully two-thirds of the posession - confident that they wouldn't be able to do anything with it. And we are starting to see why Timber now seems to be the nailed choice at left-back: he's strong, combative, good on the ball, really doing a job for them. (Although I still feel that Calafiori has a more elegant and diverse game, certainly better at carrying the ball forward. And it will be very unfortunate if he ends up spending the whole season on the bench. Ditto Kiwior, who filled in so well in that position last season; and Tomiyasu, who looks outstanding every time he gets a game. I worry that Arteta's reluctance to give major game-time to any of his back-up players is weakening his squad; there was a mass exodus of young talent this summer - and they struggled to find anyone willing to come in as replacements.)  [I can't resist throwing in a brief reminder that, in a controversial pre-season post on here, I pointed out that Gabriel should probably be preferred to Saliba as a defensive pick from Arsenal because he is significantly more likely to pick up the occasional goal from set pieces...]

Spurs really weren't that good either, and failed to build on a lively start; Maddison, their crucial playmaker, new arrival Solanke, and goalscoring talisman Son, all looked well below their best. And I am increasingly worried about Romero's body-language: he is, to my mind, projecting an awful lot of can't-be-arsed in the last couple of games (I wonder if there's been a falling-out with Ange behind the scenes?).

Newcastle looked to be suffering from some tired legs after the international break, and their back-four still hasn't settled down; but they are slowly starting to look more composed; and at least they eventually managed a win here, away from home - which was something they struggled to achieve last year. Howe's half-time substitutions proved inspired (although, with Harvey Barnes in such hot goalscoring form, you have to wonder why he isn't a regular starter yet); and the restoration of Sandro Tonali after his long gambling ban may strengthen up their options in midfield. Wolves probably feel a bit hard done-by in this one, though; it was their best performance of the season, and they really should have been able to hang on to the 3 points. I remain confident that Gary O'Neill can turn things around for them eventually; but unfortunately, they still have 5 or 6 really tough fixtures to get through, before that is likely to be possible.

A little bit of Zen (7)

 

"Hindsight is not an argument."

GW

One of the most tiresome things you encounter on the FPL forums (and there are a lot...) is people who gloat about the results of ONE GAMEWEEK and purport that they disprove a point you've made in favour of or against a certain player or team. Of course, one result never proves anything: most of the time, we're attempting to make general predictions about the likeliest outcomes over a long run of games, or even over the whole of the remainder of the season... not just for the coming weekend.

But even if we are making a prediction for the short-term, one that might be interpreted as applying solely or mainly to the upcoming gameweek,.... being 'wrong' still indicates nothing about the validity of the point made.

Everybody is going to be 'wrong' in their predictions most of the time; it's impossible to foresee future outcomes - particularly in a sport with so many 'moving parts', and so much sheer randomness, as football. 

What matters is having the courage to attempt a prediction, and the insight to produce a persuasive rationale for it. What susbequently happens is in the hands of Fate - it really has no bearing on whether you made a good point or not.

Attempts to predict outcomes before they happen can be valuable to consider, even when they don't turn out to be correct. Crowing arguments that "I knew that was going to happen...." are worthless.   [a)  You didn't know in advance, you couldn't possibly have done.  b)  Even if that was your - as it happens, lucky - guess, you gave no reason for it.]

Jackasses like this undermine my faith in Humanity sometimes....

The recent internationals - what did we learn?

 

As I just mentioned, international football is such a different creature to the domestic game - players are adapting to new teammates, new coaches, new styles of play; and, most of the time, the games are far less competitive, and played with far lower intensity than the typical EPL game - that it doesn't provide much of a clue as to players' form or confidence. A player who has a blinder for his country might well go back to misfiring for his club... and vice versa.

Also, I've been travelling for the last 10 days, so haven't found the time to watch any of the international games yet.... and I might not. It's not a high priority for me at the moment. Sorry.

I would be interested to hear if anyone has an argument to make that this or that player has made a case for inclusion in our FPL sides (or for being dropped!) on the basis of their international performance this past week. But I get the impression that the majority of FPL enthusiasts share my tepid engagement; there seem to have been almost no comments on the forums I usually follow about player performances for their countries.

Soon enough, we'll have another round of actual Premier League games to fret over the implicaions of....

Dilemmas of the Week - GW4

 

Every week, we need to take a long hard look at our squad, and ask ourselves if we want to make any changes....

If we do see a pressing case for a change here or there, we then need to weigh that against the possible advantage of saving our transfer - 'rolling' it over to use in a future week. This option achieves greater tactical complexity this season with the new rule that allows us to save up as many as 5 Free Transfers to use at one time. If we ever manage to do that, it would in effect be a 'mini Wildcard', enabling us to conduct a major squad overhaul in one fell swoop (particularly useful as there are a handful of 'premium' players who cost so much more than everyone else that you can't conveniently move them in and out of your squad without making multiple other changes as well).

Then, of course, occasionally multiple changes may seem so inescapable that we have to consider whether it's worth spending points on 1 or 2 extra transfers (a tactic which obviously deserves a whole post of its own one day; I'll be getting to that soon, I think). And a lot of people are now considering unleashing their first Wildcard for a major overhaul.... 

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 4?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Amazingly enough, NO: Odegaard and Calafiori seem to be the only casualties from international duty - but not too serious (and Calafiori hasn't been starting at Arsenal anyway). Ooh, later reports on Odegaard sounded a bit worse, though: might be out for a few weeks at least? Given how thin Arsenal's cover is in midfield, that could be really bad news for them.  Ake suffered a serious thigh-muscle injury in the Germany game on Tuesday night; unfortunate for him, but unlikely to have huge impact in FPL, since he's obviously fallen behind Gvardiol in the pecking-order at 'left-back' for Pep, and has almost always been well behind Dias, Akanji, and Stones (and Gvardiol) in the running for starts as a central defender.

The injuries with Palmer and Watkins (and Elliott and Wharton in the under-21s) and a few others sound like they're the kind of phantom problem that clubs conjure up to get their boys out of pointless internationals; if there was any substance to these problems, it was probably only minor, and should have been shaken off with two weeks' rest. (Again, later reports revealed Elliott had a more serious problem - fractured metatarsal? - likely to keep him out for several weeks. Not that he was getting starts anyway, so probably not that relevant to FPL managers.)

Areola, of course, went off at half-time in the City game the other week, having apparently jarred his back on landing in pulling off that miracle save from DeBruyne; but there seems to be no further problem with him now, so he will presumably reclaim his starting spot at once (a blow for 15% of FPL managers who thought their random non-playing back-up keeper choice of Fabianski might suddenly be about to start producing points for them, and maybe even get a bump-up in price as a result).

Milner, Veltman, and Wieffer are minor doubts at Brighton - but presumably nobody would have picked any of them anyway??

I had thought Ait-Nouri was the only current injury doubt (again, seemingly not major) who might be quite high-owned; but it seems only about 2.5% of managers held him.

And Hojlund might be close to a return at United - what might that mean for Zirkzee, or Rashford? (And does anyone really care?? United are so woeful at the moment, surely even their most diehard fans aren't selecting any of their players for FPL?!)

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Calafiori, mysteriously overlooked by Arteta; Martinelli, also suddenly out of favour with the boss somehow - and facing increased competition for a start from Trossard and Sterling.

Rice, of course, is suspended for this week, after his unlucky sending-off. You wouldn't want to replace him for a one-match absence, though. Of greater importance is the likely shake-up in the team to adapt to this: I would guess that Havertz will drop back into midfield, while Trossard or Sterling start in the middle of the attack. Though I suppose it is also possible that Jorginho could replace Rice, allowing Havertz to remain up-front. (But that, alas, is how thin the Arsenal squad is now; they really don't have much cover anywhere...)

Savinho's omission against West Ham was allegedly down to a minor knee problem only, and he's said to be in contention again for this weekend. But I stand by my initial view that he is probably somewhat below Grealish and Doku in the pecking-order, and will be used in rotation with them.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

This is not in itself a strong reason for dropping anyone, but for the most part it happens with players whose inclusion was a dubious choice in the first place: players who are looking like they might drop in price should be offloaded, if you can afford to use a transfer on that - unless you are really convinced that they will bring value to your squad (if you're right, their price will bounce back eventually!).

This tends to happen with players who are 'over-owned' at the start of the season, players around whom exaggerated expectations developed, and who produced a kind of mass hysteria among the 'sheep' of the FPL community - those whose first instinct is to go with what 'everybody else' seems to be doing. When those exaggerated expectations are disappointed, there can be an equally sudden - and irrational - mass movement away from a player again, sometimes resulting in a steep drop in price.

Curiously, Gvardiol, Porro, and Saliba seem to be most at risk of such a price-drop at the moment; they haven't been playing at all badly, but.... their owners wanted more from them, unreasonably more! (I never like to say 'I told you so...', but on this occasion, I did.)

Usually, strikers are much more vulnerable to these sudden shifts in ownership, as FPL managers can be very impatient with any lull in goal-scoring (despite the fact that even the great Erling blanks at least 1 game in 3; and 2 games in 3 is more typical for regular mortals...): Solanke, Watkins, and even Isak (who scored last time out!) are suffering such an unreasonable sell-off at the moment; also Jota, Saka, and Palmer (which just defies belief - WTF???). I'm surprised not to find Son higher up that 'most sold' list!!

And I think I'm not alone in feeling that Manchester United are such a mess at the moment, that you should really consider getting rid of any of their players you own.... until they turn a corner (which, I think, won't be until after Ten Hag is replaced... which is unlikely to be until the New Year).

Are there any new transfers or loans who are immediately tempting?

I can't see anyone getting that excited about Sterling going to Arsenal: we're rarely going to see him before the 70th minute I would imagine. Sancho's move to Chelsea is much more intriguing (he knows Palmer from his youth team days with City, so there's reason to hope that they could swiftly strike up a productive rapport - if he gets regular starts): one to watch, rather than one to pile in for speculatively now, I would say.

Ugarte, while he could help to revitalize United's fortunes as a ball-winning midfielder whose quick recovery tackles could reduce their vulnerability to counter-attacks (he's about as terrible as Casemiro at playing through the press, though, so... I wouldn't get too optimistic about his transformative powers), is not really the type of player anyone wants for FPL: quite good bonus point potential, perhaps, but extremely unlikely to provide any sort of attacking returns.

The most interesting late transfer action was among the goalkeepers, with Arrizabalaga moving to Bournemouth, Johnstone to Wolves, and Ramsdale to Southampton - and that is the order I would consider them in. Keepers can get very useful points from saves alone, even if they hardly ever manage a clean sheet; but ideally, you want a bit of a balance between the two: a fairly decent defence who will pick up 6-8 clean sheets over the season, but also expose their keeper often enough to allow him to rack up plenty of saves. Wolves are all over the place at the moment, but are a basically decent side with a shrewd manager - so I expect them to recover more defensive solidity soon. Southampton, even with a keeper upgrade, are bound straight back to the Championship - and might well not keep a single clean sheet all season. Bournemouth are good enough to challenge for the top third, and have a modestly robust defence. I'm still fairly happy with my original keeper choices - but if I were going to make a change, I'd go for Kepa (how can you resist the nominative determinism?); although I'd wait a while to see how he beds in at his new club - and they do have a pretty rocky run of fixtures until GW11.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

I haven't found time yet to watch much of the internationals. But they don't really count for that much, as a rule, since playing in different tactical systems alongside different teammates will mean that there's little comparability between club and country performances. A good haul - or one particularly good goal - from a striker can be a valuable boost to confidence, especially if they've been struggling a bit for goals in their domestic football. But other than that, international games are of little relevance.

In the last Gameweek, only Diaz and Mbeumo really stood out as players in very impressive form, who would be worth considering (if you hadn't had them from the start of the season!). But there are lots of other tempting picks from Liverpool (Salah is looking essential; Jota has also been in good form; and they're keeping things so tight defensively that many people are coveting at least one of their defenders... so, it's perhaps a bit tricky to shoehorn Lucho in); and it's not an opportune time to bring Mbeumo in, when Brentford are now facing two daunting away fixtures. Lallana caught my eye too; but he's unlikely to achieve much with Southampton.

The sheep seem to be getting very excited about Minteh, and Joao Pedro, and Mitoma, and Welbeck, and Dunk... that's enough reason to steer clear of any of them. That, and the fixtures Brighton face from GW6 through GW11.

Much sheep love also for Semenyo, Mazraoui, and Amadou Onana - only the first of those would I give any thought to.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Sheep Picks (3)

 

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has seen his ownership more than double, rocketing above 400,000, since his goal against Bournemouth. Now, he did look quite sharp all around in that game. And Everton, inspired by Dwight McNeil in a more central creative role, are looking much more dangerous going forward this year. But... DC-L has had an appalling injury record over the last three years. And he's completely lost his way as a goalscorer, massively under-performing his xG figures. He really seemed to benefit from the mentorship of Duncan Ferguson, and since the big Scot left the club in 2022, his form and confidence have tanked. While it is occasionally possible to form a reliable long-term judgement about someone from one game (with Cole Palmer last season, it took me just a few minutes!), that's not the general rule; you really need to see evidence of a consistent shift in form emerging over two or three games; and I doubt if we'll get that from Dominic.

Even if we do, it would be crazy to take a risk on a player with such a reputation for being injury-prone, under-performing for long periods, and suffering crashes in confidence and 'mental health' problems. Particularly when there are so many other promising forward options this year costing 6.0 million or less. Piling in for Calvert-Lewin on the basis of one goal - or even two or three or four - is absolutely NUTS.

Emptiness

 

An international break so early in the season?? It doesn't seem right, does it?

Just as we were starting to get back into the swing of the FPL season, all the comforting little weekly rituals of checking for last-minute team news and so on... suddenly snatched away from us! It is easy to feel bereft, resentful.

But we should EMBRACE THE VOID.  Having a bit of time off to clear our minds, to attend to other things a while... should be good for our mental health generally, and for our selection perspicacity when we return to the fray in another week. Enjoy the silence....

A little bit of Zen (6)

"Am I eccentric - or am I just wearing a funny hat?"

Tom Waits

Sheep Picks (2)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

This week's nomination, of course, is Chelsea's Noni Madueke.

Yes, he's getting a start on the right side of the attack - which wasn't necessarily expected. And he's played very well in these opening two games. And he just scored a stunning hattrick! That, naturally, is the reason why The Sheep are getting so over-excited about him. Sorry to be the one to tell you this, but he's NOT going to get a hattrick every week. Heck, he's not even going to score every week. He might not even score every month...

It should be noted that this hattrick was against Wolves, who currently have one of the ricketiest defences in the League. And that they were all set up for him particularly sweetly by Cole Palmer (who was obviously the real 'Man of the Match', whatever FPL's bizarre 'Bonus Points System' pretends!). Not even Palmer plays that well every game; and most of the time, he'll be looking to set up Jackson rather than one of the wingers. So, this was almost certainly a one-off; there's no reason to suppose that Madueke is particularly likely to bag another double-digit haul all season. And that's if he even keeps his start - which, with Neto and Sancho competing for the place, is very much in doubt. (Whether Maresca will invariably start with two wide attackers is also open to question. For some games, he could well want a narrower front line. And if he feels like introducing Nkunku in a more central No. 10 slot, Palmer would be forced out wider on the right, replacing Madueke.)

Moreover, Madueke is priced at 6.5 million. While that's not expensive, it's also not cheap. There are this year a bunch of starters at 5.5 million who look even more promising.

Madueke is a very good player, and has the potential to be one of the season's surprise breakthrough stars. But that one hattrick was not enough to convince any sensible observer that this breakthrough is already starting to happen. There are still too many doubts about Madueke's hold on the starting place, or his likely regular productiveness even if he does become an automatic first choice, to justify an ownership of 100,000 - let alone over 1 million (most of those having piled in for him in the last week!).

Oops - he did it AGAIN!

 

I joked last week that we might already have seen 'peak Haaland' for this season - at least in terms of his points-per-game average.  And then the bugger goes and gets another hattrick!!

Now, it would be absolutely astonishing if he managed to register THREE hattricks in successive weeks. (I don't think that's ever been done in the Premier League? And probably not in top flight football anywhere in the world, ever in history? But dammit, he is a record-smashing machine... Maybe it could happen??)  And, statistically, it does seem rather improbable that he'll even pick up a brace again for another month or so now....

But he is in exceptional form: probably the sharpest and most confident we've ever seen him. And that is utterly terrifying!

And it is prompting many people to revisit The Big Question I considered before the start of the season, whether a with-Haaland or without-Haaland squad was likely to be the best option for FPL this year.

I think that question is more open than we might have expected - an early switch of strategy more tempting - not just because of Haaland's exceptional start to the season, but because of the impressiveness of our options at the lower end of the price scale. No, we don't have any 4.0 starting keepers (like Areola last year) or unexpectedly starting and oustandingly good cheap defenders (like Gusto and Van Hecke); and we don't have a 'Player of the Season' available for only 5.0 (Palmer was a once-in-a-decade-or-two FPL miracle!!). But we do suddenly have Arrizabalaga, Johnstone, Verbruggen, and Ramsdale added to the pool of very decent keeper options at only 4.5 (I'd probably stick with Areola and Henderson as the strongest two at the moment; but Hermansen, Sels, and Muric could also emerge as tempting, more left-field picks); there's even a chance that 4.0 Fabianski might get a few starts, after Areola apparently hurt himself with a bad landing in the City game this weekend. Up front, we've got Wood, Wissa, Welbeck, Joao Pedro, Delap, Vardy, Calvert-Lewin, Duran and Strand-Larsen among the leading scorers so far - all priced between 5.0 and 6.0 million. And - outside of the inevitable Liverpool and Arsenal (and the slightly less inevitable Spurs!) back lines - all the top 15 highest-scoring defenders started the season at only 4.5 million. In particular, Rico Lewis getting a regular start at City (for now) is a huge bonus. And, to fill out the last couple of seats on the bench, there are even some OK defenders starting who cost only 4.0 million: Nedeljković, Faes, Harwood-Bellis.

Above all, there are some very strong-looking cheaper midfield options; and that is the area of the field where most of your points are usually produced. A With-Haaland squad would not be viable, I don't think, unless we could assemble a full roster of 5 strong attacking midfielders with the remains of our budget. But we have the likes of Smith Rowe, Semenyo, Iwobi, Rogers, Murphy, Wharton, Hudson-Odoi, Adingra, Minteh, Diallo, Kluivert, Tavernier, Sinisterra all looking like more-than-decent prospects to take up the last one or two spots in midfield.

It is looking perfectly possible to assemble a Haaland-Salah-Palmer squad that includes at least one other premium player, and doesn't go ridiculously light in any area of the pitch (NO non-playing bench!!). You only get into trouble, I think, if you rashly opt for Raya or Alisson in goal, and/or one or two of the more premium defenders. With Arsenal and Liverpool looking so solid, it is very likely that players from their defences will substantially out-perform almost all others, but.... will they do so by enough of a margin to justify the huge extra outlay?? That remains doubtful: the spread of points across the best keepers is usually fairly small; the spread across defenders - except for a few outliers sometimes - not much greater. Extra money spent almost always yields more points in midfield.

I can see why so many people are getting tempted to go for an early use of the Wildcard this week (I will probably have more to say on that before long): many of those who initially opted to go without Haaland - perhaps the majority - have had a change of heart. (It's probably safe to assume that almost no-one is moving the other way, and dropping him!)  I hope that's not just short-term reactionism, getting spooked by his two hattricks (you've already missed those: let it go....).  If you're going to make this momentous switch (as I think I will myself), it needs to be because you've carefully considered the overall budget constraints and the available player pool. At the start of the season, we didn't know how many of these cheaper options would be starting, or how good their prospects might be; now that is becoming more apparent, we have a better picture of what a strong With-Haaland squad could be.

Luck-o-Meter (3)

 

I am really trying to persuade myself that the overall standard of refereeing is getting better, little by little, every week.

And yet... still it seems that almost every week we're going to see at least half a dozen dubious - or just outright daft, bad, outrageous - decisions: disallowed goals, penalties and sendings-off given and not given... which can completely flip the course of matches.

And that is an absolutely staggering number: it probably means that poor refereeing is, in most weeks, having the largest single impact on FPL points outcomes (as well as, you know, possibly distorting the Premier League title race) - far more than quirks of team selection, unexpected swings in team form, or outstanding pieces of individual brilliance. This should not be happening. Sigh.

This week, the bizarre sending-off of Declan Rice was probably the most egregious. (Referees do have some discretion as to how severely they punish a 'kicking the ball away' kind of offence, particularly when it would be a second yellow. And you'd think that kind of leniency was mandatory here, since Rice barely moved the ball at all, and it might well have been accidental, or at least unthinking.)  This appalling error of judgement was further compounded by the fact that Veltman, who'd taken a petulant swish at Rice in the same incident, clearly had no excuse for being left on the field - trying to kick an opponent must always be a straight red (even though the contact here was fairly minimal; you can't have any leniency with a deliberate kick). And yet again, we heard nothing from VAR on this?? What is going on with that?

Just to rub salt into Arsenal's sense of grievance, Joao Pedro had been let off a much more serious 'kicking the ball away' offence earlier in the game. Even omitted yellow cards can have a major impact on game outcomes, especially this early on: Pedro would have been at risk of expulsion himself for most of the game, and his contribution would likely have been more muted as a result (he would probably have been withdrawn much earlier, and wouldn't have been around to score the equaliser). 

Saka probably should have had a penalty early in the game as well, when hauled to the ground by his shirt on the edge of the box (we can see the argument that the offence 'started' outside the box, but it certainly continued long after that, and its decisive element - for me - clearly happened when Saka was at least directly above, if not well inside the line of the side of the box). And they definitely should have had one for the Dunk handball - which should be a 'strict liability' offence when you stop a goal-bound shot: arguments about presumed intentionality have no relevance (other than to whether the defending player deserves a card for the offence), nor do questions about the position of the arm (unless it's so close to the body that you really can't see if it hit the body as well, or in front of the body, such that the body would also have blocked the shot - neither the case here), or whether he had any time to get out of the way; if you stop a goal with your arm, even by accident (and I'm pretty sure that was at least half-deliberate...), it's a penalty. Arsenal should have won that game far more comfortably, and probably kept a clean sheet as well - a HUGE turnaround for FPL and EPL. (I'm usually annoyed by Arteta's whingeing - but he's absolutely got a point this time.)

It is also unfathomable that Palace's Will Hughes didn't receive a second yellow for blatantly holding back Palmer on a surging run through the middle. Again, that decision probably robbed Chelsea of a win.

Leicester, too, absolutely should have had a penalty, when Tielemans flattened Vardy from behind on the edge of the box late on. He got something of the ball, yes; but that is never an absolute defence - he got all of the man.

Wolves might also consider themselves a bit unlucky that they didn't nick the win with a late penalty after Wood had clumsily tangled with Dawson in the Forest penalty area. That one was much more of a 50/50 (and they wouldn't have deserved the win) - but at least it was a decent shout.

Haaland owners must again consider themselves slightly lucky. A hattrick in successive weeks is a very rare feat, even for such a remarkable player as him; and really, Ipswich and West Ham do not appear the most likely victims for such a drubbing. At least his haul this week was entirely deserved, all three brilliant finishes - whereas last week he'd needed a very soft penalty and a horrible goal-keeping error to gift him two of the three.

Another element of the 'luck' equation, though, has to be missed chances; and it should be noted that Haaland actually fluffed his easiest chance in this game; while Mo Salah failed to convert two of his (though not quite such gimmes as Haaland's). DeBruyne, Porro, Isak, and Palmer also battered the woodwork. So many little moments in a game where things might go one way or the other.

And overall, it was a week where outstanding goalkeeping performances prevailed over striking ones - with a remarkable 18 'saves' points being racked up. There were some particularly good stops from Ederson, Alisson, Pope, and a whole string of them from Dean Henderson; but I think the pick of the crop was probably Areola's save from DeBruyne's fierce near-post drive. (Yes, he might have been slightly at fault for inviting DeBruyne's hastily improvised attempt by leaving such a large gap on that side of his goal, but he came flying across to his near post and somehow clawed the ball away from behind him...  It was one of those saves that didn't seem possible.)

However, a keeper being withdrawn at half-time is a very rare occurrence - that was a hard blow for Areola's owners, but an unanticipated windfall for Fabianksi's (especially if the injury proves to be significant, and the Pole now gets promoted for a run of games, rather than just a rather unenviable 45 minutes against Erling Haaland....).

At lleast, the 'usual suspects' all came through pretty well this week: in the 'Team of the Week', probably only Sugawara, Sinisterra, and Calvert-Lewin are very low-owned.

Overall then, I think a LUCK rating for this week would have been fairly high even without any more refereeing cock-ups. But with four contentious penalty decisions and three sending-off incidents, Gameweek 3 was pretty nearly as bad as the phenomenally LUCKY Gameweek 1 - another 9 out of 10, I think.

Let us hope that things settle down after the international break.

GW3 - What did we learn?

Arsenal, while looking quietly dangerous, are still nowhere near as formidable as they were at their strongest, in the third quarter of last season. OK, they were very unlucky to be reduced to 10 men (yet another doubly terrible refereeing decision, with Veltman deserving a red card and not getting one, while Rice was unjustly sent off), and would probably have beaten Brighton comfortably but for that; and I don't see how they didn't get a penalty for Dunk's handball (questions of the position of the arm and presumed 'intentionality' should be irrelevant when you block a goal-bound shot!). But it really wasn't a terribly convincing performance from the Gunners. 

And there are worrying signs at The Emirates, I think: Arteta appearing not to rate his expensive new signing Calafiori (unless it's just a fitness issue; but it had looked like he should sail straight into a regular start at left-back, and that hasn't happened for some reason....), and to have lost confidence in Martinelli. It's also not good that most of their summer transfer initiatives have failed, the only new arrivals being Merino (who's immediately picked up a fairly serious injury in training) and Sterling (who hasn't played much first-team football in the last two years, and doesn't seem like a type of player they urgently need); while they've let go four of their best young back-up players - so, the squad, at the moment, is even thinner than it was last year. I wonder if Sterling's main role will be to come off the bench fairly regularly for 10 or 20 minutes, not so much as an 'impact sub', but just to save Saka's legs (reduced minutes for him might lessen his FPL appeal slightly...). Next week, however, I can see he might possibly start as a 'false 9', to allow Havertz to slot back into midfield to replace the suspended Rice.

Getting a draw away at Arsenal continued Brighton's impressive start under Hurzeler, but... I think they've got some serious structural problems in central midfield, having lost Caicedo, Macallister, Gross, and Gilmour in quick succession (and now Milner, to injury); I don't think Baleba can hold things together on his own. The FPL sheep are getting over-excited about Minteh (who hasn't done much yet; and will surely share minutes with Adingra and Gruda), Welbeck (who has started superbly, but is bound to pick up an injury again soon), and Joao Pedro (who's playing well, but doesn't look likely to produce that many goals). The only one of their players I might fancy is just-back-from-injury Verbruggen in goal - but not until after their horrific run of fixtures from GW6 to GW12 is behind them.

Everton were quite mystifying this weekend: they've suddenly remembered how to score goals, but forgotten how to defend! Dominic Calvert-Lewin looked very sharp and confident; if he's really rediscovered his scoring boots after two or three years in the doldrums, that could be transformative for the team's prospects this year. But they need to start defending much better; and the problem there at the moment really seems to be in midfield rather than defence. Their late collapse against Bournemouth this weekend seemed to be largely the result of fatigue, so perhaps there are some fitness issues too, players' stamina not yet back to 100% after the summer break? But everyone else's in the league is, so that would suggest some deficiencies in the club's training regime.

Bournemouth were.... inexplicably bad for most of the game at Goodison, just not 'at the races' at all. And yet you have to admire their fighting spirit in engineering that last-gasp recovery. And they have a lot of talented attacking players - Semenyo, Ouattara, Kluivert, Tavernier, Sinisterra - which suggests they might not find life too difficult without Solanke. And Kepa is one of the most interesting last-minute transfer deals: I fancy him to give quite a boost to Bournemouth's prospects now... and perhaps to become one of the most productive 4.5-million-pound keepers.

Brentford, apart from the form of Bryan Mbeumo, are not giving much grounds for optimism yet about their season; a comfortable win against Southampton is nothing to write home about. And I'd probably hang fire even on considering the acquisition of Mbeumo, given that they must be favourites to take a couple of drubbings in their next two matches, away to City and Spurs. Heck, even their following home games against West Ham and Wolves might not be easy for them. They look, at the moment, as if they'll struggle to get out of the bottom third.

Southampton's only bright spot, really, is the inventivneness of Adam Lallana. It's a pity they don't seem to have anyone around him who can capitalise on this. They are, unfortunately, already looking like this year's Sheffield United, a team so hopelessly out of their depth that you can safely bet your house now on them going back down at the end of the season.

Leicester, while not as abject as any of last season's promoted sides, are not yet showing signs of having enough creativity to trouble an opponent. The goalkeeper, Hermansen, is their only player who impresses me as a possible FPL prospect. However, they were robbed of a penalty near the end when Tielemans flattened Vardy from behind (if doesn't matter if you 'get a piece of the ball' if you've completely swept an opponent's legs away to achieve that...).

Villa, then, were a little lucky to prevail in that game. They're still not firing on all cylinders - although the form of Rogers, Duran, and Digne is encouraging. FPL managers should not get over-excited about Onana's points prospects: he's a midfielder who scores a goal occasionally, rather than a goalscoring midfielder - bagging 2 goals in 3 games doesn't mean that he'll be bag another 2 this month,... or over the remainder of the season..... Equally, they shouldn't get too disheartened about Watkins: he is playing well, but the team just aren't creating many clearcut chances for him at the moment. But there's little doubt he'll start racking up the goals and assists soon. (I'm sure his early withdrawal, on the hour, was precautionary, after he'd suffered a series of heavy knocks in the game, rather than 'tactical', and shouldn't raise any doubts about his minutes prospects - much less his start - in upcoming games.)

Kieran McKenna - unsurprisingly, I suppose - stuck by his keeper, Muric, despite his absolute horror-show against City last week. I hope that show of confidence will pay off, with the keeper settling down to a solid season (apparently he had a very good season for Burnley in the Championship two years ago). The rest of the Ipswich side is looking, as I'd expected, quite impressive - hard-working and well-organised, much the most likely of the promoted sides to have a chance of going up. And Liam Delap is becoming a tempting 3rd forward pick.

Fulham are still not quite clicking. I think they have enough strength and balance in their squad to be fairly comfortably mid-table, but their season's looking like it might be a bit up-and-down. The young Brazilian striker Muniz hasn't found his goal-touch yet - but I remain hopeful that he soon might. Alas, his large number of FPL owners are probably going to grow impatient with another blank from him and initiate a big sell-off. The other big 'sheep' move here is likely to be a big pile-on for Traore, as people are easily convinced that he has now become a reliable goal-machine. (He has never in his career been a 'reliable' anything; and I really can't see him even being a regular starter.) Smith Rowe, and the full-backs Robinson and Tete, continue to look like their best FPL prospects.

Wolves are still all over the place in defence: Kilman is a huge loss for them. But I trust that Gary O'Neill can sort things out there... eventually. Sam Johnstone is looking an intriguing goalkeeper prospect now that he's got a regular starting place again. He's not likely to keep many clean sheets at Wolves as they are at the moment, but a leaky defence provides the opportunity for lots of 'saves' points - and he produced a couple of really outstanding ones on Saturday.

Forest, apart from the hot goalscoring form of Chris Wood, are not giving much reason for optimism. Even against a very ragged Wolves, they weren't able to generate many chances; and they were actually lucky to get a point, when Wood, defending like a forward, brought Dawson crashing down in the box near the end; it might have been an accidental tangling of limbs, but it looked clumsy.... and we've seen them given so often before.

Haaland has certainly started this season in red-hot form: another hattrick, even after missing a sitter early on!  DeBruyne and Lewis and, of course, Bernardo Silva are also looking very sharp. And City really might have scored a lot more, with DeBruyne bringing one of the saves of the season out of Areola with a fierce drive at the near post, and later crashing one against the woodwork; Grealish too had a couple of good chances, one blocked by a defender, and one fizzed just beyond the far top corner of the goal. However, without Rodri, City do lack some defensive solidity; the pace of Kudus and Bowen often exposed them on the counter-attack And people who went in for Savinho suffered immediate regret: surprise, surprise - the favoured running-order for City wingers at the moment is Grealish, Doku, Savinho! They'll probably all get decent minutes when fit, but it will always be a guessing-game as to which of them will start in any given week; and Savinho will probably get on the pitch slightly less often than the other two.

West Ham are still a bit of an enigma: a definitive new style of play under Lopategui has not yet emerged. While the pace and guile of Kudus gives them a lot of attacking threat, their midfield doesn't seem to have any shape, and they were very sloppy in possession. They're looking like they might be one of those entertaining teams who both score and concede loads - but that won't get them a very high league finish. And they really need to start making use of Fullkrug....  

Areola's injury didn't look too bad; so, I suppose we have to keep our fingers crossed until the end of the international break. If he's out for a while, it would be a very useful windfall for the significant handful of managers who'd gone for Fabianski as a cheap, non-playing back-up keeper (a fair enough pick, since he is much the best of the 4.0 options; perhaps the only back-up keeper in the EPL - well, aside from the more expensive Kelleher and Ortega - who's a worthy starter, and perhaps actually stands a chance of being promoted on form, rather than just injury to the No. 1).

Eze owners are no doubt relieved that he's finally got off the mark. But they shouldn't have been worried: he's been playing well all season, and was desperately unlucky not to have scored in each of the first two games. And there are signs that Palace are finding some confidence and steadiness in possession again - though I still worry if they can adapt to the loss of Andersen. At least Henderson is in good form, producing outstanding saves from Palmer, Madueke, and Jackson to secure a point they probably didn't quite deserve.

I really don't know how Sanchez is still starting in goal. I suppose Maresca must see something in him that I don't. I have been hoping that Jorgensen would be promoted to the first team at any moment - which, with Chelsea's improving form, and soft early run of fixtures, would make him a very tempting keeper option. I suppose, if Sanchez really is nailed for now, he becomes a tempting option for the same reasons. Palmer, of course, is Palmer; he is, I think, the most dependable of all the premium-priced players, and will almost certainly be the best of them in points-per-pound return, even if he can't quite outdo Salah and Haaland for total points.

Newcastle's makeshift defence is still looking very vulnerable, but Spurs are not yet firing properly: lots of possession and pressure didn't really lead to many chances on Sunday - while they, predictably, got cut open far too easily by a quick counter-attack. Romero, I thought, looked alarmingly unconcerned, like he just couldn't be bothered to try to sprint back in situations like that. Maybe he was carrying some kind of an injury, or maybe was just getting badly fatigued late in the game - but it did look more like an attitude problem to me. Solanke still missing, Son and Maddison failing to impose themselves on the game, and Vicario still laughably intimidatable at set pieces - lots of alarm bells for Spurs. Dragusin was probably their best player, and he's not a regular starter. Many more positive signs for Newcastle, with Barnes, Joelinton and Murphy looking very sharp, as well as the always dangerous Isak and Gordon; but they do have a rather challenging run of fixtures coming up.

I am slowly warming to Gravenberch in the Liverpool engine room: he's not the combative Keane/Vieira type I prefer to see in that role, but he's doing a job for them. And Luis Diaz is confirming my view that, when fit, he's always been one of Liverpool's most consistent and dangerous players, as deservedly nailed-on for the left-wing start as Salah is for the right. Some FPL managers are getting so delirious about Liverpool's attacking form, though, that they are taking the 'trident' in its entirety Salah, Diaz, and Jota. That's just NUTS, because it doesn't spread risk (you're screwed if Liverpool suffer a piece of bad luck like an early wonder-goal against them, or a soft penalty award, or a sending-off, and you suddenly have three key players with limited points), and your total return is capped (they are sharing Liverpool's total attacking haul each week; and while that might often be a very big haul, it often won't be, and there is certainly a maximum limit to which it can approach even in its very best weeks: if one of these chaps gets a hattrick, one or both of the others will probably return few points that week; you really want to try to identify a sole primary goal-threat in midfield from as many teams as you can, and get the best 5 of those that you can afford; that should give you more points than taking 3 attacking midfielders from the same side - however good that side is). Also, you know, Liverpool currently have the best defensive record in the league, so you might want to at least leave yourself the option of getting one of their defenders...

Manchester United? The most interesting thing about them at the moment is the betting on when Ten Hag's going to be sacked....  I suppose at least Rashford is finally starting to show some signs of returning form; not much, but some. And I had thought Onana could be a tempting prospect in goal this season; but the way they're playing at the moment, I wouldn't touch any of their players with a bargepole.