Monday, September 16, 2024

GW4 - what did we learn?

Erling Haaland celebrating one of his two goals against Brentford  on Saturday 14h September 2024on

Although, as I remarked a couple of weeks back, Rashford is showing signs of recovering some of his mojo once more (though not yet anywhere near the electrifying form he discovered in the second half of the 2022-23 season), Manchester United are still not looking very convincing. Their defence is slowly starting to look a bit more solid; Onana's in fine form; and their two attaking full-backs might start to produce occasionally. But the midfield is still a gaping void (can Ugarte 'fix' that? I have my doubts); and Ten Hag obviously doesn't know who his best attacking line-up is (a dilemma that's only going to become more complicated with Hojlund's imminent return from injury).... although it does seem strange that Garnacho can ever be the one omitted. Southampton were much more promising in this game; in fact, they were completely on top for the first twenty minutes or so, and, if Archer had managed to put that penalty away, they probably could have gone on to win the match. But they're still looking abysmal in defence; but for a string of fine saves by Ramsdale, they might eventually have gone down by a landslide, even to this lacklustre United side.

Ipswich are, for me, still looking much the most compact and dangerous of the promoted sides, and were good enough to knock thus-far buoyant - but also massively overrated - Brighton out of their stride. They needed Muric to pull off a string of excellent saves to keep them in the game, but had their own moments too (notably Delap smashing a shot against the post), and looked more and more comfortable as time went on. Hurzeler is doing a fantastic job with the rather thin resources at his disposal this season - but I think the wheels are going to fall off Brighton's bright start very soon.

Palace are slowly settling down again, after the transfer window upheavals. Their inability to keep clean sheets is a big concern to the substantial number of FPL managers who went for Munoz (or Mitchell or Guehi) in their squads; but I think Glasner will be able to get them playing better soon; and Henderson still looks the best 4.5 keeper, for me, although he didn't have his best game here. It's reassuring to see Mateta find his scoring boots again; and Eddie Nketiah also had a very lively start for his new club (and it's exciting to see that Glasner thinks he can play at the same time as Mateta, in a wider role; there must have been some concerns that Eddie might only be a back-up choice as centre-forward, or would, at best, get stuck in a regular rotation with Mateta). Jamie Vardy is looking unreasonaby lively for a 37-year-old, and is likely to become an even more popular third striker pick after this performance.

The Fulham v West Ham match was a rather drab affair, with little to enjoy or get excited about, apart from an excellent pair of assists from Smith Rowe and Bowen. Many FPL managers are no doubt disconsolate that the young Brazilian Muniz was taking too long to rediscover his scoring touch, and appears to have now lost his start to Raul Jimenez (though Jimenez himself has struggled for fitness or consistency over the last few years, so that narrative might change again very quickly). I remain sceptical about the 'sheep' enthusiasm for Adama Traore that was quickly building after his goal in GW3; I really don't see him being good enough to keep his start in this side. And I continue to be concerned about how much West Ham are struggling to find any rhythm under Lopategui; they look to have more than enough great players to mount a decent challenge for the European places - but it's not happening yet.

Liverpool's wobble this weekend didn't come as any surprise to me; I've been saying all season that the sharpness of their front three seems to me to have been masking some basic weaknesses with the structure and personnel in the middle; that starting midfield three just haven't looked all that convincing. And this week, the 'trident' had a bit of an off day too. No reason for alarm bells just yet; but I think Slot's still got quite a bit to do before this side can be consistently dominating enough to challenge City for the title. Forest were somehow transformed here; but the BBC highlights were too brief for me to work out quite why - was it the impact of Ward-Prowse's introduction (seems unlikely; I barely noticed him on the ball), or of Moreno's at left-back (he seemed to make a much more substantial contributiion)? Or was it just Hudson-Odoi and Elanga finally 'clicking' again, rediscovering their synergy from the end of last season, after a rather lacklustre first few games from the pair of them? I still think Forest lack the quality to stay up; but it's starting to look as if Nuno will at least get them to put up a good fight.

Dear, oh dear, there is no stopping Erling Haaland at the moment, is there? This was probably his best performance of the season so far, and he really was a bit unlucky not to claim a history-making third successive hattrick. It really is feeling very difficult to go without him in FPL while he's playing this well; but all strikers are streaky - and this super-hot form of his might evaporate at any moment (probably the moment I bring him in....)  I wouldn't worry too much yet about the tactical early withdrawal of Rico Lewis; switching him back to the left side was probably a mistake by Pep - but Lewis's FPL owners might take comfort from the fact that this might seem to indicate that Pep now prefers him to both Walker and Gvardiol (Walker was surely only getting a token start to keep him match-fit for possible use in the Champions League). The return of Rodri is a great relief to City fans - and a source of despair for just about everyone else. Brentford put up a spirited fight (they often seem to raise their game against the top teams), and were really on top enough in the early phase of the game to have got themselves a dangerous lead. After next week's also potentially tough away game at Spurs, I think it will be time to consider getting in one or two of their players.

The FPL Sheep are, of course, getting wildly over-excited about Dominic Calvert-Lewin's apparent rediscovery of his 'magic boots' (or forehead...). He is indeed suddenly looking very sharp again, almost back to his best of three or four years ago; but.... it should be noted that he also botched a golden chance for a third goal, which would probably have put the result beyond doubt for Everton. There also seems to be an upsurge of interest in Michael Keane, which is even more misguided, since Everton keep bizarrely blowing comfortable leads in the closing stages of the game... and he surely won't keep his start once Branthwaite is fit again, anyway. It is encouraging for Everton fans that the team has started to become a dangerous attacking side again; but if that has been at the cost of them becoming woefully leaky at the back, they'll still be deep in relegation trouble for most of the season. I wouldn't consder going in for any of their players until things settle down for them a bit; and if I did, only McNeil or Branthwaite might be worth a punt, I think.

It is, of course, very reassuring for the 24% of FPL managers who own Ollie Watkins that he's finally got amongst the goals again. But that should never really have been in doubt: he hasn't been playing badly so far, just hasn't had many chances fall to him. He is now looking very, very sharp; and, as the team behind him improves, I expect him to probably finish out on his own as the second highest scorer in the league this season. And if Jhon Duran keeps up these super-sub performances, he's going to become more and more popular as a third striker pick in FPL. Morgan Rogers, though, has probably exhausted the patience of those who took a punt on him as a cheap fifth midfielder at the start of the season; he has demonstrated (yet again) the sad truth that some players can play extremely well without ever producing any FPL points.

Bournemouth did well to contain Chelsea, who, while not quite 'on it' after the international break, nevertheless still made a lot of good chances. Nicolas Jackson didn't play at all badly; and I don't think one goal from Nkunku, however well taken, is going to boost him to being a preferred starter at No. 9 (though that's what a lot of the sheep are thinking). I'm far more excited about the possible contributions of Jadon Sancho. We all know how good he can be when he's happy with his environment; if Maresca trusts him with a regular start - on the left or the right - I think he might emerge as one of the great value picks of this season; though, at this stage, that's still a mighty big 'IF'. (And it was utterly bizarre that Anthony Taylor ended up showing a record-breaking 14 yellow cards in a game that wasn't unduly physical, let alone 'niggly'!!)

Arsenal had to ride their luck once more, not looking terribly convincing again (though, of course, this week they can blame the absence of their two midfield lynchpins, Odegaard and Rice), and needing a header from a corner to nick the 3 points; but grinding out the wins even when you're not playing that well is the mark of a strong title-chasing side. Arteta paid Postecoglou the compliment of adopting an extremely defensive approach, allowing Spurs fully two-thirds of the posession - confident that they wouldn't be able to do anything with it. And we are starting to see why Timber now seems to be the nailed choice at left-back: he's strong, combative, good on the ball, really doing a job for them. (Although I still feel that Calafiori has a more elegant and diverse game, certainly better at carrying the ball forward. And it will be very unfortunate if he ends up spending the whole season on the bench. Ditto Kiwior, who filled in so well in that position last season; and Tomiyasu, who looks outstanding every time he gets a game. I worry that Arteta's reluctance to give major game-time to any of his back-up players is weakening his squad; there was a mass exodus of young talent this summer - and they struggled to find anyone willing to come in as replacements.)  [I can't resist throwing in a brief reminder that, in a controversial pre-season post on here, I pointed out that Gabriel should probably be preferred to Saliba as a defensive pick from Arsenal because he is significantly more likely to pick up the occasional goal from set pieces...]

Spurs really weren't that good either, and failed to build on a lively start; Maddison, their crucial playmaker, new arrival Solanke, and goalscoring talisman Son, all looked well below their best. And I am increasingly worried about Romero's body-language: he is, to my mind, projecting an awful lot of can't-be-arsed in the last couple of games (I wonder if there's been a falling-out with Ange behind the scenes?).

Newcastle looked to be suffering from some tired legs after the international break, and their back-four still hasn't settled down; but they are slowly starting to look more composed; and at least they eventually managed a win here, away from home - which was something they struggled to achieve last year. Howe's half-time substitutions proved inspired (although, with Harvey Barnes in such hot goalscoring form, you have to wonder why he isn't a regular starter yet); and the restoration of Sandro Tonali after his long gambling ban may strengthen up their options in midfield. Wolves probably feel a bit hard done-by in this one, though; it was their best performance of the season, and they really should have been able to hang on to the 3 points. I remain confident that Gary O'Neill can turn things around for them eventually; but unfortunately, they still have 5 or 6 really tough fixtures to get through, before that is likely to be possible.

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