Luck-o-Meter (28)

Forest v City was a predictably cagey affair. The visiting side looked much better in defence than they have recently, but toothless and unimaginative going forward - though Forest's organised and determined defence can claim a lot of the credit for that. A goalless draw was looking the likeliest result throughout; though, for me, Callum Hudson-Odoi's brilliant solo goal (with a possible 'Assist of the Season' from Morgan Gibbs-White!) claimed a narrow win that was just about deserved on the balance of play. And as Forest visibly tired over the last 25 minutes or so, they had to dig deep to survive a final wave of pressure. And maybe things would have gone differently if Nico Rodriguez's stunning early drive had sneaked in, rather than clipping the outside of the post; or if Mateo Kovacic's snap volley effort in the dying minutes hadn't corkscrewed just beyond the top right corner of the woodwork... (And it is an absolute travesty that the outstanding Ola Aina got no love at all from the BPS ratings in this one!!)

Brighton looked terribly sluggish and disjointed in the first half, and conceded the lead to a brilliant breakaway from Iwobi and Raul. But apart from that, visitors Fulham barely asserted themselves in the match, and looked very flakey in defence. The second half was one-way traffic for Brighton, and although they left it very, very late to claim the winner from the penalty spot, it seemed entirely deserved - after they'd had two earlier efforts ruled out because their young wingers, Minteh and Adringra, can't always time their runs down the flanks properly... and an incident in which Estupinan appeared to have been bundled over in the box was dismissed by VAR in oddly cursory fashion (again, that might have been the right decision; but there's no consistency about how VAR is operating, how much time it's giving to decisions, and - most crucially - how it's communicating those decisions to the on-pitch referee or to the public; and that is undermining everyone's confidence in the reliability of officiating in the EPL).

Liverpool, not unexpectedly, after their heroic exertions against PSG a few days ago, looked a bit jaded and conservative in the first half - and not having their manager in the dugout to bark instructions at them probably didn't help either. But, yet again, Arne Slot impressed with his in-game management, making three half-time changes to inject fresh legs and more aggression, and re-energizing the whole team with a stern pep talk at the interval. While it's always nice to see an underdog get a break and (briefly) threaten an upset, Southampton's opening goal was rather fortunate: to me, Alisson appeared to have been impeded by the Southampton player falling to the ground next to him - his legs got entangled around the Liverpool keeper's right calf, effectively 'tripping' him and holding him back for a fraction of a second as he struggled to recover the loose ball. In general, I feel that keepers are 'over-protected' in this sort of situation; and it would have been very hard on Southampton to rule the goal out for this; however, there was certainly a question to be answered there, and it was yet again a failing on the part of VAR that this was seemingly not even looked at. There was no question about either of the Liverpool penalties, though. But Mo Salah fans will be miffed that their man didn't claim a hattrick, as Luis Diaz squared the ball to him in the middle of the six-yard box, but it came to him awkwardly high, and he sliced the volleyed attempt well wide of the gaping net.

Ismaila Sarr's late winner seemed just about deserved, although, without their talismanic forward Mateta for the week, Palace looked mostly quite lethargic and disconnected, barely creating a chance - apart from two, remarkably similar, fluke attempts from Eze, where hopeful shots from the edge of the box were half-blocked and looped high in the air towards the far corner: the first drifting just wide, the second finger-tipped to safety by Alex Palmer. Apart from that, their biggest chance came when Palmer - mostly excellent again - smashed a clearance straight into the lurking Nketiah a few yards away, but the ball ricocheted safely wide instead of into the gaping goal. Ipswich actually had rather more of the ball, and generated nearly all the game's best moves: Henderson had to make sharp saves from Philogene, Enciso, and Delap. If they can keep on playing like this, they might yet have a slim chance of scrabbling above Wolves to save themselves from the drop; but that does look to be the only issue still in doubt in the relegation struggle this year. (On the other hand, Jacob Greaves did seem extraordinarily lucky to escape a straight red card for his tug on Sarr just before half-time: the contact was pretty minimal, but once it's been adjudged a foul.... how is it not a 'denial of a goal-scoring opportunity' when the opponent is 20 yards from goal with no other defender anywhere near him??)

Usually, Villa look dead on their feet after playing in Europe; but this time it was the home side, Brentford, who looked out-of-gas, despite not having the excuse of having played midweek. Bryan Mbeumo, majestic for so much of this season, was literally invisible on the BBC highlights, not getting namechecked, or even entering shot even once; their other attacking lynchpins Wissa and Damsgaard only just got themselves noticed, and Christian Norgaard was shuffling around like a zombie, surely carrying some sort of injury. Villa were able to completely dominate the first half, without playing well. Brentford roused themselves to make a bit more of an effort after the break, and were desperately unlucky not to get something out of the match: with Lewis-Potter smashing an effort against the foot of the post, and Schade twice having stone-cold penalty shouts ignored by the ref and the VAR (the first one, you could at least see an argument that two Villa players had collided with each other, and then one of them had fallen into the Brentford man 'by accident' as a result of this - but that shouldn't actually make any difference, when you knock a player off his feet; and the second push was absolutely clearcut). The ref just seemed to have it in for Schade, as he also refused to see an obvious foul against him which gave Villa their best chance of the match with a late breakaway for Watkins, although he then completely muffed his attempt to chip the keeper. Watkins's - and Villa's - luck was a bit of a mixed bag in this one: his opening - ultimately only - goal in the match was a bit of a fluke, skidding off Collins's shin and straight through Flekken's legs, where it should have been quite easily saved on any other trajectory; but then less than a minute later, his flying breakaway to set up Morgan Rogers with a second (a much better move, and a 'goal' that would have been more worthy of deciding the points) was ruled offside by a toe or a kneecap - 'correct', but not the kind of decision we like to see given. And then perhaps Nathan Collins was lucky to escape a straight red card for his wild two-footed challenge in the dying moments of the game; he did get something of the ball and not too much of the man, but, even so, 'scissoring' a player's standing leg, from behind, is not good - and if the ref had pulled out the red card, no-one could have had much complaint about it.

Wolves and Everton were two more teams far below their best yesterday. Everton had most of the ball in the first half, but didn't manufacture many chances. In the second, both sides roused themselves to produce more of a tit-for-tat ding-dong struggle, but still without many high-quality opportunities. Harrison's opener needed a double deflection off the blocking defenders to get beyond Sa, and Pickford will probably feel disappointed that he wasn't able to fall on Munetsi's fairly gentle side-foot finish (although it was a lovely assist from Bellegarde that played him in behind). The recently infallible Beto failing to  convert two good chances in the game, one in each half, is perhaps the biggest surprise - and FPL disappointment! - in a fairly drab encounter.

Cole Palmer 'missed' a penalty??!!  With his record from the spot so far, that's probably worth 2 of my 'luck' points on its own (these in the negative direction, for the 57% or so of FPL managers that owned Cole)! To be fair, it was hardly a 'miss': he hit it cleanly, firm and low - just not as close to the post as he usually does, and the keeper happened to guess right and get down very smartly to it to pull off an excellent save. Although... whenever a keeper gets across that quickly to a pen, you have to wonder if he actually moved too early. And my initial impression here was that Hermansen moved way early; and on the replays, it looked as if he had both feet clearly in the air when Palmer struck the ball. This is yet another instance when VAR should certainly have taken a long hard look at the incident, but we were not informed that they'd given the matter any thought at all. And good grief, poor Palmer had already had a pretty clearcut penalty somehow denied in the opening minutes. Maybe he went down a bit too dramatically, but the defender plainly clipped him from behind, and in fact drove his knee into the back of Palmer's thigh, which is apt to cause a dead-leg. Enzo had another penalty shout in the second-half as well, which again didn't seem to really be considered by the VAR boys: the non-argument here was apparently that he'd tripped himself and was already falling before the contact, but how is that relevant?  The defender flung a leg out and clipped his shin - penalty! It is utterly ridiculous the number of strong - or often downright undeniable - penalties that Chelsea are not being awarded this season.

After a weekend of incredibly drab, listless games, Spurs v Bournemouth was finally a burst of excitement. It is baffling how Spurs somehow salvaged a point from a game in which they were so comprehensively outclassed: Bournemouth hit a post, brought a string of agile saves out of Vicario, and had a superb breakaway goal ruled out - correctly, but rather ponderously - for offside: their 2-0 advantage probably should have been at least twice that before.... Pape Sarr produced a worldie from distance out of nothing, and then Son won a rather soft penalty from Kepa's challenge late in the game. Yes, the goalie did make some contact; but it was very, very slight, and he was trying to pull out of it, while the Korean was obviously looking to hang his legs into the sliding keeper's torso... and the ball was long gone; Son's scoring chance had evaporated, and he was only thinking about the penalty. It was certainly a justifiable decision, but.... if the referee had not given it, I don't see how VAR could have overruled him; it was the kind of call we regularly see going either way.

The Manchester United v Arsenal clash was also actually quite a blast - though perhaps more for the subtle tactical battle than end-to-end thrills. The main points of controversy were Anthony Taylor forcing the Arsenal wall a long way back for the free-kick from which Bruno scored the opener (you expect there to be a few percent plus or minus in these things, but this error was obvious to the naked eye; even with the Arsenal players furtively shuffling a bit over the foam-spray line, there were still a whopping 12% or so further back than they should have been); however, I think most of the blame is still on Raya, who (despite being admittedly unsighted by some clever shenanigans in front of him) was always way too far over in his starting position, and (never mind that he only saw it very late) way too slow in trying to get across (he did make some fantastic saves later in the game, though, really kept Arsenal in the match; again, it is a travesty that the BPS didn't give him more recognition); Bruno hit it pretty sweetly, but it was nowhere near the top corner - really should have been kept out. The other headscratcher moment was United's young debutant defender Ayden Heaven getting away with a handball claim: yes, the ball flew from head to hand quite quickly, but.... not with power; and it was his own header, cushioning the ball downwards in front of him; and he did somehow manage to touch the ball THREE TIMES with his lower arms, with the end result that he brought the ball nicely under control at his feet. These calls are always going to be very subjective, but that was a penalty all day long for me.

The Monday night game at West Ham ended up being a nail-biter; despite visiting Newcastle having pretty much dominated (apart from that bizarre moment when Soucek slashed one over the bar in the opening minute), they weren't able to convert their superiority into goals - mainly thanks to a very sharp display from Areola (who was somehow only credited with 3 saves, and didn't manage even 1 bonus point - WTF??). There was a slight controversy aronnd the Guimaraes goal, with West Ham fans feeling that Kilman had been pushed to the floor by Isak - but the contact was extremely minimal, and Kilman looked to be guilty of making a meal of it to try to con the ref. But yes, again, we've seen decisions like this given.

With two or three penalties and (arguably) a couple of sendings-off not given on Saturday, that was already looking a bit of a rocky week for VAR. So, I provisionally rated this gameweek a 5 out of 10. But goddamn, after a Palmer penalty 'miss' (and two other good penalty shouts for Chelsea turned down; and one for Arsenal...), I think this is up to another 9 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'. Really, you only have to look at how silly the 'Team of the Week' is, with Salah being the only member who's owned by more than about 2% of FPL managers.

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  The dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now. I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season. [I worry that, if people don't do this, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you don't feel like joining me in such an emphatic gesture, please at least think about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip.

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW28

 

Oh dear, with a busy couple of weeks since the last EPL gameweek, we have been fairly deluged with suspensions and injury doubts following the 4th Round of the FA Cup.... and the European competitions getting feisty....

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups, as they have been getting dangerously over-long recently! I'm going to confine myself to just the injuries to players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL. [I currently find the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information - go check that out for more comprehensive coverage.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 28?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Jean-Philippe Mateta is probably the biggest blow, as he was becoming a popular striker pick in FPL - despite next week's 'blank' - because of Palace's impressive recent form, and soft fixtures against Southampton and Leicester up next. Amazingly, he was not considered to have suffered a concussion from Milwall keeper Liam Roberts's outrageous kung-fu kick to the side of his head, but his left ear was so badly torn up by his opponent's studs that he's likely to be out for a least a couple of weeks while that heals.

Kaoru Mitoma limped off in the Cup tie against Newcastle with a knee problem, but scans apparently revealed nothing too seriously wrong, and he's now expected to be able to take part this week.

Kieran Trippier (not that he's featured much this year anyway....) also had to go off in that game with a back injury, And Lewis Hall had already picked up an injury in training ahead of that - now revealed to be a broken bone in his foot which will keep him out for the rest of the season. Alexander Isak also limped out of the Brighton game, but it looks like he's going to be OK.

More woes too for Spurs, as Dominic Solanke, getting his first run-out after injury, had to go off with a 'knock' in the Europa League game against Alkmaar on Thursday, and Rodrigo Betancur, who's apparently been playing with a foot injury for a while, is now expected to be unavailable for two or three weeks. However, central defenders Cristian Romero and Micky Van de Ven could be close to a comeback.

Sammie Szmodics suffered a recurrence of his ankle injury in the FA Cup defeat to Forest, and has had to have surgery; likely to miss the rest of the season. Kalvin Phillips, however, who was suffering with a calf-muscle problem for the past couple of weeks, has now returned to training.

Cody Gakpo is still (again...) suffering with an ankle problem, and was omitted from the squad for Wednesday's game against PSG.

Nathan Ake also suffered a broken bone in his foot in the Cup game against Plymouth and is likely to miss the rest of the season - which leaves City very short of defenders.

And Fulham's Adama Traore is a doubt after twisting his ankle in the Cup tie against Manchester United.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Will Hughes and Sasa Lukic are starting two-match bans for picking up their 10th yellow cards of the season in their last Premier League outing.

And Patrick Dorgu, Anthony Gordon, and Matheus Cunha are suspended for the next three games for 'violent conduct' offences in the FA Cup last weekend. (Cunha's ban seems likely to be extended, as the FA filed an additional 'misconduct' charge against him in relation to the incident on Wednesday. And, having let him off so ridiculously lightly last time, they might be less inclined towards leniency now....)

And Tariq Lamptey is out for one game after receiving two yellow cards in the Cup game against Newcastle.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Dear, oh dear - well, most of the Manchester United team, really (does anyone still have any of their players - even Bruno??); but especially Andre Onana, whose confidence is looking pretty shotl; I rather fear that being forced to play behind a different back three almost every single week has eroded his understanding with his defensive partners and is leading him into increasingly panicky decision-making.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Cup competitions aren't usually much of a guide to League form anyway. And I can't think of anyone who was that eye-catching on the last EPL weekend, or since.

As for the goddamned AssMan.... no strong table-bonus opportunities this week: Leicester, Ipswich, and Southampton currently look to have no chance of even beating each other, let alone anyone higher up the table. A lot of the so-called 'experts' seem to be tipping Graham Potter, though without any obvious reason for doing so; even at home, I don't much fancy West Ham's chances against Newcastle. With the likes of Van de Ven, Romero, and Solanke poised for a possible return, there might be a case for taking a chance now on Ange Postecoglou, with Bournemouth, Fulham, and Chelsea all comfortably above them in the table, but looking very beatable.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

DON'T FORGET The Boycott; the dratted new 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now - and I am urging everyone to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use this silly chip. 

And if you can't bring yourself to do either of those things, please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A little bit of Zen (32)

"Success is no accident. It is hard work, perseverance, learning, studying, sacrifice - and most of all, love of what you are doing or learning to do." 

Edson Arantes do Nascimento (Pelé) 

BETTER THINGS to aim at

I mentioned this morning that I grow extremely weary of the tiresome and misguided obsession among so many FPL managers with RANK. It really tells you nothing useful about how good your decision-making in the game is, only.... how much luckier than you a certain number of people have been. (Not everyone who's above you is only there because of luck, of course. But the sorry truth - a cold, cruel statistical inevitability - is that the higher you are in the overall ranking, the greater the percentage is likely to be of the people above you who have simply been luckier than you. If you don't want to feel abused by luck, you should aim for the lower end of the rankings....!)

So, what can you focus on instead, to give you some sense of your achievement or progress in the game?

Well, I already touched on this point in a couple of very early posts on this blog. 

First, I outlined here what various points thresholds indicate about your relative ability. (Points totals are slightly more reliable as a measure of progress for individuals because, for most of us [though not, by any means, everyone!], 'luck' more or less balances out over the course of a season. Final rank position, however, can still vary enormously, because the number of total players may be more or less from one year to another, the scope for luck to have a distorting impact may be more in one year than another [there was a HUGE, unprecedented number of injuries last year, for instance; and there have been some particularly bad refereeing decisions this season, as well as a somewhat 'unexpected' meltdown for the champions, City...; things like this can make a big difference, but much more so in some years than others]; and there may, for undiscernible reasons, just be far more hugely lucky people in one year than another - so, your overall rank may differ considerably from one year to another, even though your points tally is remarkably similar.)

Second, I suggested that in addition to tracking your progress against points 'milestones' (or just seeking to regularly beat the global average), it is better to focus on small mini-leagues against people you know, or at least on more modest-sized 'public leagues' where you can develop some sense of familiarity with your closest rivals (studying their selections and performance over time, such that you start to build up an awareness of the quirks and preferences in their approach to the game, their strengths and weaknesses). Pitting yourself against familiar opponents gives you a fuller sense of how you are performing - and a deeper satisfaction if you are indeed doing well. But, ideally, it should also help you to become less self-obsessed about the game - able to applaud a rival's success when they do better than you, able to recognise why it has happened. (If they really have made better choices than you, that is. And if they appear to have just been very lucky, learn to laugh it off. That should mean that next year, if you really are the better player, you will prevail.)  [My principal rivalry within the game is against an old college buddy. He's not actually very good at it. And so it can be rather galling when he does much better than me in his weekly points tallies. He has - once - even managed to beat me over a season... more by luck than anything else. But I am genuinely happy for him when he achieves these successes, whether they're fully deserved or not. My chief aim in competing against him is to encourage and goad and cajole him into paying more attention, so that he can gradually improve in the game... and eventually triumph in his small work league (which will be no mean achievement, because it does include a couple of rather impressive managers).]

A corollary to this latter point is that you might also try to focus more on 'head-to-head' battles with particular rivals, rather than overall points. I've never been bothered to enter any head-to-head leagues myself; but I do in practice keep a tally of my week-by-week performance against a few key rivals. And that, I think, is a more accurate measure of your overall ability than your relative points totals might be. (That college buddy of mine who managed to beat me a season or two back on the points totals was still well behind on the weekly head-to-head...)  A few stupendously lucky weeks where someone achieves a massive points advantage over you can effectively decide the whole season. (I noted in another early post that the quest to be a global No. 1 at season's end, or even in the top 10,000 or so, is pretty much over after the first few weeks, if you don't get off to a flying start... A genuine flying start, that is; not just faking it by blowing all your chips in the first few weeks!)

I have also ventured the - somewhat 'controversial' - view that your growth in squad value is actually a very reliable measure of your basic competence in the game. The danger with it is, of course, that you can try to focus solely on growing squad value - and that will probably be to the detriment of your points total or your head-to-head successes. But as an organic by-product of how you play the game from week-to-week, I think a healthy and consistent growth in squad value each year can be a very telling marker of your ability in the game. [Well, I used to think that. My confidence in the idea has been slightly shaken this season and last by the increasing volatility in the transfer market, by the sudden price drops being initiated by the sheep losing confidence and starting to bale on a good player after just two or three blank weeks....]

In a busy spell of early posting around the beginning of this 2024-2025 season, I also suggested some tips for gauging how good your initial squad selection is; and you can apply these same principles on an ongoing basis throughout the season to check if you've been keeping your squad in the best possible shape.

And finally, I produced a list of recommendations for how to get better at the game. I would suggest that if you examine your thought process around selection decisions etc. each week in reference to each of these categories.... you will develop a sense of whether you're getting better at the game, and why... regardless of what's going on with your points total or your ranking!

Yes, sorry, this post has ended up being just a 'greatest hits' compilation of links to earlier posts. I may at some point try to distil these observations - and perhaps a few novel ones too - into a simpler and more useful list. 

But I do earnestly believe that all of these things I've touched on above are more important than points or rank. Yes, really. 

This is the beginning of 'enlightenment': play the game not to reach arbitrary external goals, but for the innate sense of satisfaction to be derived from it, from the expense of thought and effort, from the grappling with the challenge, from the constant striving to be better.

The main PROBLEM with FPL

People want to measure their success in the game of Fantasy Premier League. But there is no reliable gauge of your success. 

Your points total is primarily a measure of how lucky you've been.

Your rank is primarily a measure of how lucky everyone else has been, in relation to you.

The aim of the game should be to exercise and develop your skill in making the best squad selections (and 'chip strategy' decisions, etc.). But your points returns are not an accurate reflection of your skill and good judgement: they depend very largely on pure luck. (And, as I pointed out the other day, with the help of Youtube science educator Derek Muller, the effect of even small amounts of luck on final outcomes can be HUGE...) Very bad FPL managers can sometimes do extraordinarily well. Very good FPL managers can often fare very badly.... It is a cruel and unjust game.

We need to find other ways of gauging our progress in the game of FPL, other ways of taking satisfaction in it.

Perhaps a useful place to start is..... focusing less on how good you think you are, and concentrating instead on pursuing constant improvement.

Another take on 'LUCK'

 

I've been following Derek Muller's excellent science channel, Veritasium, on Youtube for several years, but I only just stumbled upon this video of his from 4 or 5 years ago on the role of 'LUCK' - in sports, and life. 

Just over 3 minutes in, he has a fascinating example of a mathematical simulation he ran of the competitive selection process for NASA astronaut training - which apparently demonstrates that, with even a very small element of 'luck' at play in the process, at least 80% of those finally selected (overcoming daunting odds of around 1,700-1!!) will have displaced more able candidates by virtue of that little bit of crucial luck.

He doesn't go into a lot of detail about his simulation. I suspect that it involved multiple 'elimination rounds', rather as with a knockout cup competition - which would tend to cumulatively exaggerate the impact of the participants' luck. Nevertheless, it is a striking example of how great an effect luck can have in competitive outcomes.

And he was only allowing a weighting of up to 5% for the 'luck' factor in his selection tests. I think in Fantasy Premier League.... it's probably at least 50%!

I hate it when people naively brag about their rank in the game. Your rank proves nothing about how smart or capable you are. You can't get into the top 100,000 or so without having a substantial amount of good luck. And statistics would suggest that the great majority of that top 100,000 are there mostly through luck (that 80/20 split comes up everywhere.....), at the expense of far more capable managers.

A little bit of Zen (31)

“We should not strive to be better than others, but to be our best selves.”

Kosho Uchiyama

Luck-o-Meter (27)

Well the new gameweek got off to a great start, with no contentious refereeing decisions in Wednesday's games.

The Brighton v Bournemouth game was an open and entertaining one, and very, very close. Kluivert's screamer from just outside the box was the 'goal of the week', and Bart Verbruggen kept his team on terms with a string of excellent saves. It really felt a little unjust that substitute Danny Welbeck's slightly scuffed 75th-minute effort just sneaked in off the foot of the post.

Chelsea got a predictably comfortable win against dismal Southampton, though, for FPL purposes, the most significant element of the game was Cole Palmer again failing to register a contribution. He was - yet again - desperately unlucky: being denied by a good block from Ramsdale early on, and then in the second half curling one just beyond the far post (when he was a bit unbalanced by a cheeky tug on the back of his shirt from Joe Aribo), and moments later seeing Neto selfishly go for a difficult near-post drive rather than passing to him when he was waiting unmarked in the middle of the six-yard-box; he also brought another good save out of the keeper from a free-kick, and had two or three other decent efforts on goal. In another universe, he got a brace or a hattrick in this game! Colwill and Cucurella getting on the scoresheet was also a turn-up for the books...

Villa were unfortunate that Morgan Rogers's apparent equaliser just before half-time was chalked off for a very tight offside against Watkins (by a kneecap!), and if that one had counted, perhaps the game might have developed differently. But to be frank, home side Palace were by far the better team here, and well worth their ultimately comfortable win. The return of Adam Wharton after a long spell of injury is very promising for them.

Fulham were fortunate to get two superb individual goals from Sessegnon and Muniz early in each half, but home side Wolves looked much the better side for most of the game. The only refereeing booboo of the night was failing to award a foul against Diop for wrestling Cunha to the ground at the start of a move which led to Traore having a good effort saved by Sa.

Everton's comeback against Brentford was well-deserved (another goal from a defender??), as they looked much the better side for most of the game, and are left rueing Beto's inability to get the better of Flekken in three one-one-one breaks (for the first of which, he should probably just have stayed on the floor when tripped by Pinnock 25 yards out - which would have earned his side a dangerous free-kick and got the Brentford man send off for a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity').

Manchester United at least showed some resilience to eventually prevail over a resolute Ipswich, especially after gifiting their visitors an early lead through an appalling mix-up between Onana and Dorgu, and then having Dorgu - rightly - sent off just before half-time for an horrendous follow-through on Hutchinson; but they did again look very, very poor.

Arsenal are still looking worryingly toothless - dominating the game at Forest, but scarcely managing to produce a decent attempt at goal. Their best effort came early on, when Calafiori's lightning turn bought him space to shoot from the left side of the box, but he cracked his effort against the inside of the post. In the second-half, fill-in 'No. 9' Merino managed one firm header, but it was comfortably parried over the bar by Sels. Chris Wood had his inevitable one chance on goal, but on this occasion was unable to get it past Raya. Overall, a very sterile encounter. Forest fans may resent the fact they didn't get an early penalty when Hudson-Odoi appeared to have been brought down by Calafiori; but it looked to me as if the Italian had begun the foul but immediately backed out of it; he did put his hand on his opponent's shoulder for a fraction of a seciond, and he may have brushed against his trailing leg - but (for once!) I think I agree with the VAR official that this was "minimal contact". But this might be the one really contentious call of the week: we've certainly seen them given.

Liverpool appear to be beginning a serene cruise to the title over the last 10 weeks of the season; Newcastle really couldn't put up much resistance at all (apart from Callum Wilson wasting a great chance from a good break in behind). The FPL hordes are frustrated that Salah didn't produce much (only one assist?!), but he was a bit unlucky not to win a penalty or a dangerous free-kick on the edge of the box in the opening minutes (the trip on him looked well outside the box, but it was definitely a deliberate fall - and foul - by Hall, rather than a 'push' by Salah, as the referee mystifyingly called it; you suspect he was just trying to assert early on that he wasn't going to succumb to the typical home-side bias at Anfield!), and that Luis Diaz couldn't quite get the decisive connection on his sublime outside-of-the-boot pass to the far post in the second half. Isak's last-minute omission with a groin strain was also a heavy blow, since he's in nearly 60% of FPL teams, and was probably captain for the week in a good few of them. Also, Nick Pope's form really hasn't looked that sharp in recent games (even coming through defenders' legs, Szoboszlai's opener was too tamely hit to have posed any serious problems, but he was very slow getting down to it), and one wonders if Dubravka might be reinstated for the next gameweek.

Was this the best Manchester City performance in four or five months, or were Spurs just bad? Well, possibly both. City, energised by the return of Haaland (though I would still bet he has a cartilage problem in that knee, and they're just desperately hoping he can make it to the end of the season before needing keyhole surgery) should have put the game well beyond reach in the first half: Savinho missed an open goal, and Vicario made a few sharp saves to keep the home side in it. Ange must have deployed 'the hairdryer' at half-time, because it was a completely different Spurs in the second half, and they did start causing City some anxieties. But still, City's lead was rarely threatened, and it looked like Haaland's late second really shouldn't have been disallowed (VAR strangely claiming they couldn't make a clear determination on the issue, though they seemed to have some pretty clear pictures of it; there have been many occasions recently when they really should have admitted this and didn't, but here... well, the referee thought Haaland 'handled' the ball, but it appeared to strike him high on the left upper arm, in the 'permitted zone'; while the ball clearly did hit the arms of both of the defenders in close attendance - but VAR appeared to offer no adjudication on that; for me, the reaction of the players tells the tale on this one: Haaland was happily celebrating the goal with his teammates, clearly oblivious of any possibility of any offence being called against it).

In the final game on Thursday night, West Ham cruised to a comfortable but ininspiring win against Leicester, who are now looking much the worst of three very unimpressive promoted sides. It's really quite difficult to see any of them reaching 17th-placed Wolves's current total of 22 points by the end of the season, let alone reaching a more realistic safety threshold in the mid-30s. Apparently, there might have been some slight doubt as to whether the corner which led to the second goal was rightly awarded, but the refereeing in this one was otherwise uncontentious.

A pretty unremarkable gameweek, this: a few debatable but probably not wrong decisions - the denial of Haaland's second goal being the only real injustice, I think. The results all went fairly predictably (and predictably low-scoring, with several closely matched games); on recent form, I suppose it was mildly surprising that City managed to brush off Spurs so straightforwardly, and a win for United (and 3 goals??!!), especially after they'd gone behind early on and had a man sent off, was a bigger one. Kluivert's thumper from outside the box was the only really outstanding moment of gameplay; and Palmer's failure to register an attacking contribution despite having an outstanding game was the main instance of extreme bad luck. There were, however, some extremely unexpected goalscorers this week (a lot of defenders!!), while most of the big names drew a blank, or didn't come up with much: it's one of those weeks where almost no-one owns any of the 'Team of the Week'! That adds at least a couple more 'luck' points.....

With Haaland's unexpected return and Isak's unexpected absence really being the only major surprises, I rate this gameweek only a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'. 

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  The dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now. I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season. [I worry that, if people don't do this, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you don't feel like joining me in such an emphatic gesture, please at least think about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip.

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW27

Another very tight turnaround before the midweek gameweek kicking off on Tuesday evening, so there probably won't be much detailed team news available.

And I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups, as they have been getting dangerously over-long recently! I'm going to confine myself to just the injuries to players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL. [I currently find the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information - go check that out for more comprehensive coverage.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 27?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Morgan Rogers (ankle knock) and Tyrone Mings ('feeling something' again in his previously injured knee) are slight doubts for Villa after the weekend.

Brighton's Joel Veltman and Danny Welbeck missed the weekend with unspecified knocks, and remain a doubt.

Christian Norgaard had to come off at the weekend after a blow to the head, and will have to miss the next game under 'concussion protocols'.

Trevoh Chalobah injured his back in the game against Villa, and seems likely to be out for a little while. (Tosin will presumably have to deputise for him. But they're getting spread so thin at the back now, you wonder if they might have to recall Axel Disasi from loan at Villa.)  Noni Madueke picked up a minor hamstring problem in the game against Brighton a week ago, and is expected to be out at least a few more weeks.

Emile Smith Rowe had to come off early on Saturday with an ankle problem, but it doesn't look too serious.

Jens Cajuste hurt his ankle and Kalvin Phillips went down with a calf strain in the Spurs game, which will be hard blows for Ipswich - though probably not for many FPL managers!

It seems City are slowly moving towards acknowledging that Erling Haaland has a knee injury, after omitting him from the squad altogether at the weekend - but still no word on exactly what it is. (It's a cartilage tear. I would bet my house on that.)  And John Stones apparently might need surgery on the thigh muscle problem that forced him off against Real last week, which would end his season.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Myles Lewis-Skely has a one-game ban for a 'denial of a goal-scoring opportunity' red card at the weekend, and Illia Zabarnyi is facing a three-game ban for 'serious foul play'. (Bournemouth are appealing the decision against Zabarnyi, but I doubt if they'll be successful. The FA seem reluctant to criticise their referees, and I think will probably feel that contact with the studs a quarter of the way up the shin - even though low-impact, and completely accidental - is suffiicent to justify the possibility of such a call; particularly as it was apparently seen that way by both the on-pitch referee and the VAR official.)

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Cole Palmer has been... not poor, but decidedly 'quiet' in the last couple of games - and apparently nearly 90,000 managers have quit on him since the weekend. But even a Palmer at only 70% or 80% of his best can turn a game with a moment of magic; and he does have Southampton and Leicester up next, so.... it seems the wrong time to be losing faith in him.

There is more justifiable impatience, I think, with Morgan Rogers (200,000 owners shedding him already this week), who, despite a couple of strong performances in the FA Cup, has made no impression at all in the League since the turn of the year, and in the last couple of games has been scarcely even visible on the pitch. He's probably in need of a rest; and now that Villa have brought in players like Asensio, Rashford, and Malen, he'll probably be getting shared minutes - for a while at least. (And Villa have testing away games at Palace and Brentford next, and then the blank gameweek....)

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

The Sheep will no doubt be rushing in for Marco Asensio after his brace against Chelsea - but, frankly, neither he nor Villa looked all that good in that game. I'd already recommended him as a 'one to watch'... but I'd be still watching for a game or two yet.

With Brighton seemingly getting themselves back together over the past couple of weeks, Joao Pedro and Georginho Rutter are becoming tempting budget picks again. Although Everton's Beto and Abdoulaye Doucoure are starting to look as if they might have even stronger claims for consideration for those cheap final slots in the squad.

As for the dratted AssMan chip....  once again the table-bonus opportunities look irresistible, with Vitor Pereira's Cunha-inspired Wolves looking a strong prospect to pick off recently schizophrenic Fulham, while Oliver Glasner's Palace seem to have strongly upward-trending form, and face an Aston Villa who - despite a lucky win against flakey Chelsea last time - are heading rather in the other direction. And given City's probable low morale after the pair of humiliating defeats to Real and Liverpool, and Spurs' record of being a 'bogey team' for them in recent years, the bold might favour trying a punt on Ange Postecoglou.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

DON'T FORGET The Boycott; the dratted new 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now - and I am urging everyone to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use this silly chip. 

And if you can't bring yourself to do either of those things, please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Go again, sir?

Yes, good grief - they're foisting another midweek Gameweek on us this week, and we're having to reset our squads barely 48 hours after Gameweek 26 wrapped up. The FPL schedule does get quite exhausting at times....

Luck-o-Meter (26)

 

Well, Friday night's weekend-opener went much as expected, with Brentford eventually coming out comfortable winners against doomed Leicester. The visitors might well have had even more goals, with a few near misses, a header against the post, another kept out by a spectacular flying save from the defiant Hermansen, and Kevin Schade blazing the best chance of the game wide. But Leicester weren't utterly hopeless: they do seem to be developing a bit more defensive cohesion and determination (alas, too late), and I thought Faes had a pretty good game here. In fact, Vardy gave Brentford a few scares, particularly with one early breakaway which might have given his side the lead - only to be thwarted by excellent tracking from Pinnock and Collins and a solid block from Flekken. As far as one could see from brief online highlights, there were no refereeing screw-ups in this one. Thank the lord! Of course, that can't last long.....

"They think it's all over...." for Arsenal. And it probably is, as far as the title goes, with all three points dropped to Graham Potter's West Ham, just as Liverpool had been starting to show signs of a 'wobble'. They were desperately flat and unimaginative in this one, rarely carving out any sort of chance against the visitors' packed defence, but repeatedly looking vulnerable to their quick counter-attacks (Bowen might well have had a couple more). It has been 'fashionable' for years to deride Aaron Wan-Bissaka's qualities as an attacking full-back, but over the past couple of months he has started to look like a significant threat. Arsenal fans probably feel a bit hard done-by about substitute Lewis-Skelly's quick sending-off: a trip on the half-way line isn't usually a 'denial of a goal-scoring chance' - but, with all outfield players in the opposition half, and David Raya 40 yards out of his goal, it is. It didn't really make any difference, as Arsenal actually rallied themselves to make a last-ditch effort in the closing phase of the game - and Gabriel and Ben White both spurned good chances to nick a draw their side hadn't really deserved.

Bournemouth may feel that Zabarnyi's sending-off after 30 minutes took the game away from them, but, to be frank, they hadn't looked at the races prior to that. It was perhaps inevitable that they'd run out of steam at some point after their recent run of superb form and just have an 'off day', and this was certainly that. The Zabarnyi decision was very harsh, though: his foot rolled over the top of the ball, and thus caught Ait-Nouri above the ankle; but there was no force in the contact, and it was obviously a pure accident rather than a reckless or malicious challenge. The referee had initially considered it only a yellow-card offence (barely even that!), but VAR once more saw fit to intervene (as with the penalty controversy at Goodison, this was far from a 'clear and obvious error' in the initial on-pitch decision; and, although we weren't told this time what Stuart Attwell's words from the VAR room were, we must suspect that his comments were highly prejudicial to the outcome; and even if they weren't, the way VAR is operating at the moment, the mere fact of the referee being directed to take a second look is massively prejudicial: we're almost never seeing a ref have the courage to stand by his original call in such an instance.)

Everton are left ruing the fact that they couldn't make more of their easy dominance in the first half, when they could have gone 4 or 5 goals ahead of an utterly ineffectual Manchester United. The visitors, I suppose, deserve some credit for dragging themselves back into the game, although both of the goals came somewhat out of nowhere (and both, arguably, were somewhat Pickford's fault - in that he was caught needlessly moving in the wrong direction, leaving himself off-balance and unable to make any response to shots that should have been fairly comfortably saveable for him). The VAR official Matt Donohue (one of the least experienced EPL referees, having only made his debut at the very end of last season) had a spectacularly awful game: first, taking three-and-a-half minutes to attempt to adjudicate if there were any fouls or offsides in the penalty-area melee preceding Beto's opening goal (ultimately, it seemed to hinge on whether Lindstrom might have got a slight touch to help the ball on to his forward; but it should have been immediately evident that the TV pictures simply weren't sharp enough to give any definitive answer on that; and it was surely irrelevant, as it appeared to me that Beto would have been still onside anyway; we really need to impose a time-limit on VAR deliberations - if they can't produce a verdict in under 60 seconds, they should just give up; we can't have matches being held up for minutes on end like this), and then - according to the information relayed by the Sky commentator - prejudicing Andy Madley into reversing his penalty decision against Harry Maguire in the closing minutes, by apparently instructing him that the only issue to consider was whether Maguire's tug with his left hand was sufficient to "make Young go down as he did." Yes, the veteran full-back certainly did make a meal of the incident, and his rather over-emphatic dive ultimately cost him; but an attacking player making a meal of something is not supposed to be an issue in the referee's decision: if there was unfair contact, it's a penalty - however elaborately the victim jumps to the ground. In fact, there were multiple errors in how this review was handled: the supposed 'clear and obvious error' threshold for a VAR intervention was simply not met; Donohue's instructions, as well as being flagrantly prejudicial (we really need to get some lawyers involved in redrafting the game's Laws and the officiating guidelines), ignored the fact that Young was in fact the possible victim of multiple fouls by two players (a prolonged haul on his shirt by De Ligt, a possible shorter shirt-pluck thereafter by De Ligt and/or Maguire, the Maguire tug on his hip, and possibly some contact on his trailing leg by Maguire too as he started to go down); and then Madley was only shown one view of the incident on the pitchside monitor, a view which obscured the shirt-tugging which had been the more unequivocal offence. Just a complete clusterfuck.

Fulham's flakey form of recent months continues: the brilliance of last week's performance against Forest had utterly evaporated. Marco Silva did not endear himself to the FPL faithful by pulling Smith Rowe and Berge shy of the hour. (OK, nobody owns those players; but it's the principle, Marco.)  And Mateta was denied a fantastic goal (from an outrageous back-heel assist by an exuberant Eze) for another of those offsides that is too tight for any sensible decision to be made on it, other than - as in the good old days - giving the attacking team 'the benefit of the doubt'. (And this was another occasion when the VAR team didn't seem to be able to draw their magic 'lines' on the screen; or were not willing to share them with the public, anyway.)

Spurs might finally be on their way back, with Son, Kulusevski, and the just-returned-from-injury Johnson and Udogie all looking sharp again. Ipswich gave them some early scares, particularly through Delap, briefly thought they'd got an equaliser just before half-time (Woolfenden's effort rightly ruled out for offside), and they were still just about in the game... until Djed Spence's deflected shot put Spurs two-up again with just over 12 minutes left. But alas, Ipswich's defence is still absolutely dreadful; and relegation is now looking fairly inevitable.

A predictably straightfoward win too for Brighton at Southampton: indeed, the margin might have been even greater - if Minteh had not lost control of the ball after leaving goalkeeper and defender on the floor to present himself with an open goal!

Villa got very lucky against Chelsea: it was one-way traffic from the visitors, but they just couldn't convert their chances. (Playing Nkunku on the left to replace the out-of-favour Sancho, and putting Neto up front, seemed like an eccentric tactical choice - but it looks as though it could work out OK.) Villa only started getting into the game in the last 25 minutes or so, energised by a lively Marcus Rashford (pity his fitness doesn't seem to be up to playing more than half a game as yet.....). I feel a bit embarrassed about having tipped two-goal hero Marco Asensio as a possible acquisition a couple of days ago: he really didn't do much in this game, and was incredibly fortunate to get a two-yard tap-in,.... and then have his hopeful but fairly innocuous volley fumbled over the line by a hapless Jorgensen in the final seconds of regular time. To be fair, though, Villa should clearly have had a penalty for Cucurella's extended hauling on Bogarde's arm at a set-piece.

Dear, oh dear, what was going on at St James's Park? Talk about a game of two halves! Despite uncharacteristic howlers from Livramento and Pope combining to gift visitors Forest an early lead, Newcastle remained impressively unfazed, and soon began turning the screw on their opponents; by the end of the first half, a cricket score in their favour was really starting to look possible. But in the second they almost immediately began looking tired, tentative, and anxious, and Forest were soon dominating as emphatically they had done earlier - one of the most bizarre turnarounds I can remember seeing in a very long time. A very entertaining game for the spectator, but one that must have both managers chewing the carpet in frustration. And no refereeing clangers in this one? Hurrah.

City suffered one of the most overwhelming 2-0 defeats I can remember. Amazingly, they enjoyed the bulk of the possession, but could do nothing with it; Doku on the left could turn a hapless Alexander-Arnold inside-out at will, but was never able to capitalise on this huge defensive weakness in the visitors. As I'd expected, Nico Gonzalez is strugging to fill Rodri's boots, and Marmoush without Haaland is fairly ineffectual (he was well offside for his apparent equaliser); it was scarcely evident that DeBruyne or Foden were on the field. Liverpool were unfortunate to have a third from Curits Jones chalked off for a very, very narrow - but probably correct - offside against supplier, Dominik Szoboszlai; and they were cutting City apart so easily through the middle that they really looked as if they might be able to cruise to a 4-0 or 5-0 win. I suppose some credit is due to the makeshift City defence, who actually did a pretty good job of keeping them at bay; and Ederson made one absolutely oustanding save from a fierce curling drive by Luis Diaz. Khusanov, in particular, should grow in confidence as a result of this performance: his superb last-ditch sliding block on Szoboszlai saved his team from conceding a third late in the game. But City, on this form, could struggle to secure any sort of European qualification this season.

Mr Donohue's dreadful VAR performance at Everton might almost have been worth 5 or 6 of my 'luck' points on its own. Saturday's games also saw an unfair sending-off for Zabarnyi, a missed penalty call against Cucurella, and a harshly (I think, wrongly) disallowed goal for Mateta; the two big games on Sunday, though, were pretty much error-free - so, overall this was one of the better weeks we've had for the officiating. And the results mostly went with the form book: although the ridiculous ding-dong between Newcastle and Forest kept everybody guessing until the end, West Ham and Wolves pulled off major upsets against Arsenal and Bournemouth, while Villa's narrow win over Chelsea and United's fightback draw against Everton felt scarcely deserved, very much against the run of play. The 'Team of the Week' wasn't all that eccentric this time either, with 'usual suspects' Salah, Mbeumo, and Isak all producing handily; however, few would have expected Jose Sa to keep a clean sheet and be the top keeper for the week; and Wan-Bissake, Asensio, Johnson, Szoboszlai and Joao Pedro were also somewhat unexpected entries into the list. But no particularly outrageous pieces of individual skill or wild swings of fortune this week, nor even much suspect refereeing - outside of that Everton game - so, I think this week ultimately only merits a 6 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  The dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now. I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season. [I worry that, if people don't do this, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you don't feel like joining me in such an emphatic gesture, please at least think about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip.

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW26

 

Very tight turnaround this week between the second legs of the European play-off games (and the rescheduled Villa v Liverpool game) in midweek; so, there might not be much up-to-date selection news available ahead of a Friday evening deadline.

And I'm going to try to streamline these weekly round-ups, as they have been getting dangerously over-long recently! Last week's was particularly bad: with a two-week gap between regular EPL games crammed with League Cup and FA Cup ties, European games and the postponed Merseyside derby.... there was a fair old avalanche of injury news to report. From now on, I'm going to confine myself to just the injuries to players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL. [I currently find the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information - go check that out for more comprehensive coverage.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 26?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Well, the big news of the week was that United's Amad Diallo, by far their best player in recent months, hurt his ankle in training (a fact which did not emerge until after last week's FPL deadline - oh, woe!): ligament damage, apparently, which will keep him out for the rest of the season. That's pretty huge for FPL, since his ownership had been up near 25%.

Cody Gakpo complained of a knock to his knee after the Everton derby just over a week ago. Originally it was said to be minor, and that he would have a good chance of appearing in at least one, if not both of Liverpool's GW25 fixtures - but he didn't. Alarming. I have to say, though, with the wealth of forwards available at Liverpool, he was always likely to be at some risk of sharing minutes, and thus not a very compelling forward pick beyond these last two double gameweeks. Trent Alexander-Arnold's understudy Conor Bradley had to come off in the Villa game two days ago with a thigh muscle strain, but is now only expected to be missing for a week or so.

Brentford centre-back Sepp Van den Berg had to come off against West Ham last weekend with a knee injury: no further news so far, it seems. He has been quite a popular cheap fifth defender pick in FPL.

Everton forward Illiman Ndiaye has been diagnosed with a medial ligament injury in his knee after the Merseyside derby (not as bad as a cruciate, but...), and seems likely to be out for several weeks.

Ipswich full-back Leif Davis missed last week's game against Villa with a training knock: supposedly 'minor', he should be back this week. However, his teammates Julio Enciso and Sam Morsy both picked up potentially quite serious injuries in that game and are now doubts.

Leicester's James Justin also suffered an apparently quite serious ankle injury against Arsenal.

Kobbie Mainoo and Manuel Ugarte both missed the Spurs game last week with training injuries: no word on how serious those might be.

Rodrigo Betancur, Son Heung-min and new centre-back Kevin Danso had to come off against United with knocks - could be more woe for poor Ange!

And Erling Haaland hobbled off late in the game against Newcastle last Saturday with what looked like quite a serious knee injury. He and the club are so far putting a brave face on things and insisting it's nothing too bad: he was on the bench against Real in midweek, but was not risked on the pitch. He clearly jarred the knee badly when landing after a high jump for an aerial ball and was in immediate distress; a little while later, he broke down, suddenly unable to take any weight on the leg... after bending it at a certain angle in trying to accelerate towards the ball. I would bet a large amount of money that that is a cartilage tear. I've had that injury: and that is exactly how you get them, and exactly what they look like. If it's just a minor one, he might be able to play on with it; but that would be taking a big chance. I would imagine he'll need a keyhole surgery to rectify it before the end of the season - probably sooner rather than later.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Poor Axel Tuanzebe is having to serve a one-match ban after his ridiculously unjust sending-off for two supposedly yellow-card offences against Villa last week. But that's the only suspension this week!

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Um, can't think of any, no - no absolute stinkers this past week.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, many, of course, would say Omar Marmoush - who did come up with a stunning hattrick against Newcastle. But I'm still a little hesitant on him; partly because I don't see last week's comfortable win as any convincing evidence of a City revival (Newcastle just didn't show up for that one), and partly because there's such strong competition for forward slots in FPL at the moment. On form and fixtures, Wolves's Matheus Cunha looks a far more compelling choice.

I'm not getting over-excited about Ollie Watkins or Marcus Rashford just yet either. For me, Marco Asensio has looked Villa's most exciting player in their last few games.

Beto's form with Everton is looking very impressive; but I felt their new Argentinian midfielder Carlos Alcaraz was even more eye-catching in the last match.

Perhaps the biggest excitement of the week, though, is the emergence of Mikel Merino as Arsenal's potential goalscoring saviour; to me, he looks tailor-made for a central striking role - but I worry that Arteta may somehow not see things that way.

As for the dratted AssMan chip.... Thomas Frank looks the safest prospect of win points this week, with victory surely as near-certain as can be against currently dreadful Leicester (and a high chance of a big goal haul, and maybe a clean sheet too); however, I'd probably rather gamble on the possibility of table-bonus points for Oliver Glasner's Palace away to Fulham. (Backing Kieran McKenna's Ipswich against Spurs might also work, but is surely a much rasher gamble!)

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

DON'T FORGET The Boycott; the dratted new 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now - and I am urging everyone to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use this silly chip. 

And if you can't bring yourself to do either of those things, please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A little bit of Zen (30)

“In the midst of chaos, there is always opportunity for growth and transformation.”

Ryokan Taigu

Sheep Picks (8)

 

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

And gosh, it's been nearly three months since I last offered one of these. I doubt if sheepiness has been in abeyance over the holidays; it is purely an oversight on my part.

Here goes, then....

Yep, I know I'm asking for trouble with this one. Before he'd even kicked a ball for City, Omar Marmoush already had a passionate fanbase among Egyptian FPL managers - and African ones, and Muslim ones. And when Pep - slightly surprisingly? - trusted him with an immediate starting place in the team, and he was immediately so lively and dangerous... well, it wasn't unnexpected that his ownership would start soaring: now up to nearly 6.5%. Now, I agree, he does look a tremendously talented player. And if he were classified in the game as a 'midfielder', I might be all over him.  But as a forward, his appeal is much more limited - principally because we already have such strongly established leading picks in that position: Isak, Cunha, and Wood; with the likes of Wissa, Mateta, Joao Pedro, Raul, and now perhaps Beto vying strongly as alternatives for the third seat, if one of the current 'big three' loses form. I can see Marmoush might get into that conversation; but I don't think he's quite there yet, on the back of one hattrick. (It is a definiing characteristic of The Sheep that they always immediately buy any player who scores a hattrick!)  With City's form still looking very flakey, and Haaland now possibly added to the injury list (it looked to me very much as though he'd suffered a cartilage tear; a minor one you can sometimes continue to play with - but it's asking for trouble; and I would imagine he'll need a keyhole surgery as soon as possible, which will rule him out for a few weeks at least), Marmoush at the moment looks a very risky pick to me. (Some might feel that an absence from Haaland might improve his opportunities up front. But I think the big Norwegian's role is vital in occupying central defenders to create spaces for players like Marmoush to move into to find scoring opportunities. Marmoush made zero impression against Real this week without his giant striking partner to batter those holes in the back-line for him.) Moreover, City have quite a tough little run of fixtures still ahead of them in the League: even Spurs might be about to initiate a bit of a resurgence, and have been something of a bogey team for them in recent years; Liverpool and Forest are certainly likely to be very difficult games - and Brighton might not be any pushover. 

So, I'm not writing Marmoush off by any means; but I think his potential value in FPL will be very dependent on whether - and how well - City can rally themselves for the final part of the season, and on how well the other leading strikers' form holds up. For me, he's very much a wait-and-see at the moment.

Picks of the Week (5)

DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I thought I would start occasionally trying to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves'. (And some weeks, I'll have nothing.....)

And darn, I haven't attempted one of these for over a month now! (Although I did slip in a couple of 'pseudo-episodes', on the most promising winter signings, and the likeliest picks for the recent Everton/Liverpool Double Gameweek.)  Oh well, here goes....

First up, we have Arsenal's Spanish midfielder, Mikel Merino. I've always fancied him as a potential 'fix', at least in the short-term, for Arsenal's goalscoring problem, especially if Kai Havertz should get injured (oops!). He's big, strong, likes to get in the opposition box, is an assured finisher - he looks to have all the attributes to do decent service as a centre-forward. And I've been saying this for a while, not just since he demonstrated this potential so emphatically in his match-saving appearance off the bench in last week's game against Leicester. However, I do still have all sorts of misgivings about how this might work out. For one thing, it was only Leicester - currently the worst team in the League (and one of the worst we've ever seen in the League). Also, he's never been a really prolific goalscorer in his career so far; he's had a few seasons where he's come up with 5 or 6 - hardly earth-shattering. But most of all, I fret that his boss, the chronic over-thinker, Snr Arteta, will not be so easily convinced of his possible aptitude for this role as the great mass of the football-watching public are: the other Mikel is a bit of an intellectual snob, I believe - inclined to disdain any commonly-held view, to suspect that an 'obvious' solution cannot possibly be the right one. But Sterling is looking past it; and Trossard, although lively and skillful and an excellent finisher, just doesn't have the physical presence to play a central striker role. Merino looks a ready-made replacement for Havertz; and you must suspect this was the thinking behind acquiring him last summer. The popular - currently more popular, with over 3% ownership, to Merino's still paltry 0.5% - alternative is, of course, young Ethan Nwaneri. But, given that he doesn't turn 18 for another month, and has already broken down with injury once, you must suspect that Arteta will treat him a little cautiously, ration his minutes from time to time. And while he's likely to produce a lot of showy performances, and maybe contribute quite a few assists, I can't see him becoming a primary goalscorer for the team just yet. Ideally, I'd wait a week or three, or a game or three (we have 3 matches in the next 10 days!!), to see if Merino is now going to start regularly, and is going to be deployed as a No. 9 or a 'false 9' - and assess how well he settles into that role. But if you're the gambling type, you might want to roll the dice on him early - to take advantage of a likely rise in his price, if he does score again this weekend.

Next, I proffer for your consideration, Marco Asensio (yep, goalscoring Spanish midfielders are my 'theme of the week'!).  He's experienced (turning 29 tomorrow), has done everything with Real Madrid, and has been a pretty reliable goalscorer throughout his career (particularly in his last two years with the Spanish giants, where he's notched 12 each season). It's a bit early to judge (I haven't been able to watch a full Villa game with him yet), but highlights and match reports suggest that in his three outings for Villa so far, he has already looked much the most promising of their recent signings. That was certainly my impression: every time you saw him on the ball, you felt that he was going to make something happen. There is a lot of positive sentiment towards the club's new British arrival, Marcus Rashford; and he has perhaps made a showier start to his time there, notching an assist in the match against Ipswich last weekend. But my feeling is that Asensio has more class, more consistency, and more versatility - is far more likely to become a regular starter... and, if he does, hopefully, a frequent producer of attacking contributions. But at the moment, he'd be an even more speculative pick than Merino, because I fear all of Villa's winter signings were really brought in as occasional rotation options to ease the burden of Champions League football, rather than likely mainstays of the preferred starting eleven. But we shall see.

And a wild third to throw into the mix: Carlos Alcaraz. Yep, the young Argentinian (only just turned 22) on loan at Everton from Flamengo, is a bit of an unknown quantity, but... he was absolutely oustanding in their win over Palace last week. I don't know if he's necessarily going to be coming up with that many attacking contributions, but I do have a very strong feeling that he's going to play a pivotal role in their ongoing recovery over the final third of the season. So far, his ownership is only down around 100,000 - so, if you like betting on 'penny shares', he could be your man! (I was tempted to go for Beto instead. I've always fancied his potential: he looks a proper centre-forward. And now that he's found his goal touch at last, he's started playing with a swaggering confidence. But there's a lot of competition in the cheap striker space; and I worry that his and Everton's recent form may prove precarious. So, for me, he's still a wait-and-see for now.)

Wot - no Omar Marmoush?  NO!  Like Mikel Arteta, I disdain the obvious.