What's DIFFERENT this year...?

 

Well, it often feels like.... EVERYTHING.

This year is certainly very different to previous years in FPL in several important ways:

1)  The tweaks to the BPS scoring.  Quite a subtle thing, and something most FPL managers are likely to miss, or simply ignore. But it is likely to have quite a significant impact: something like 15-20% of your points come from bonuses - i.e., equivalent to ALL of the points-spread you'll typically see across a good quality mini-league! While it's difficult to project exactly how much effect the various little modifications to the scoring scale that decide bonus point allocation will have, it seems likely that the most important change will be the significantly bigger penalty now applied to defenders or keepers conceding a goal. The BPS is already somewhat stacked against defences, and this further disadvantage imposed on them is likely to mean that it's going to be very difficult for a keeper or a defender now to score any bonus points in a match in which they haven't kept a clean sheet. That will reduce returns from defenders quite a bit. (At least keepers can still pick up points, and BPS credit, for 'saves' - and that's usually what earns them bonus points. They'll probably earn slightly fewer bonus points this year too, because of the new change; but they won't be as hard hit as defenders.)

2)  Lower returns for defenders in general.  There are two factors here: the demise of the attacking full-back (mainly Pep's fault??), and generally lower prospects of clean sheets this year. Arsenal's defensive performance last year was a real freak: what was it, 18 clean sheets? They are very unlikely to get anywhere near that this time. Nor, by the look of the opening two months, is anyone else. Arne Slot has quickly made Liverpool a bit less gung-ho in attack and a bit less leaky in the middle of the park, so they're looking favourites to take the clean-sheet crown this year - but I doubt they'll get far into double-figures (they've been flattered so far by a bit of good luck with the refereeing decisions, and a very soft opening run of fixtures); and I'm not sure anyone else, apart from Arsenal, will get anywhere close to them. City have looked leaky; and could be in big trouble now that they've lost Rodri for the season. I think Forest, Bournemouth, and Palace show some promise, though they've not had the best of luck so far. Really, you can't fancy many teams to reach 10 clean sheets for the season this year.

And in the past we've almost always had a few points-monsters in defence: usually a progressive full-back who'd bombard the box with crosses, occasionally threaten a goal of their own, and perhaps provide additional points potential through taking corners, free-kicks, or even long-throws. Where are the Ashley Cole, Rory Delap, Leighton Baines, Aaron Cresswell de nos jours? Well, Cresswell, of course, is still around; though he's been phased out of the first team over the last two or three years. Trent provided a lot of assists in the past, but his numbers fell off a cliff last season, and aren't looking likely to rebound that strongly this year (yes, he was very unlucky to have that goal disallowed early in the season; but Slot's playing him much deeper, and he's not looking likely to play balls into the box any more - being on corners should be a plus, but Liverpool aren't nearly so focused on them as a main source of goals as Arsenal are; I fear his only likely assists will come this year from long balls over the top to Salah - useful to have, but perhaps not reaching more than 5 or 6 over the season). And there was that one magnificent season from Joao Cancelo a few years back, before he fell out with Pep. And Ben White did pretty well last year, linking with Saka down the Arsenal right. But the old-style attacking full-back who regularly pushed forward to make overlapping runs beyond the wide attacker, and was playing balls into the box all the time - we don't really have that any more. Porro is an occasional goal-threat, but is now tending to invert into deep midfield rather than pushing down the flank, so won't offer that many assists; Gvardiol is a hell of a finisher, but not a crosser, and doesn't seem likely to keep many clean sheets with City this year; White looks a bit out-of-sorts, is said to be carrying an injury. I would have said Henry and Hickey at Brentford looked our best prospects for this sort of defender; but they're still injured; and - if they ever come back - they might find that Thomas Frank has permanently changed the team's style of play to omit the use of advanced wing-backs any more. I like Robinson (and Tete), Aina (and Moreno), Kerkez, Dalot, and Munoz and Mitchell; but I'm not sure any of these will produce the really regular attacking returns we used to enjoy from top full-backs in the good old days.

3)  Fewer penalties.  A modification of the interpretation guidelines for the Handball Law seems likely to greatly reduce the number of penalties awarded for the ball hitting a defender's arm; and that's surely a good thing. Alas, the revisions have been drafted in an inept way which renders them ridiculously over-complex - and hence their application is going to be even more subjective and riddled with controversy than it has been in the past. But at least the overall number of penalty awards will be down. A modification in the VAR protocols also seems likely to have a HUGE impact: there now seems to be such a hesitancy to embarrass the on-pitch referee by suggesting he's been in error that VAR is constantly hiding behind the 'clear and obvious error' threshold for intervention, and is sitting on its hands - even when the referee has committed an obvious goof. We've seen good penalty shouts unaccountably waved away in every single gameweek so far. (And it's hitting some teams far more than others. City seem to be magically immune to conceding penalties this year; while poor Chelsea are just not being  awarded any.) And of course, players who derived an especially large number of their overall points return from converting penalties - like Cole Palmer and Bruno Fernandes - could take a pretty serious hit from this.

4)  Being able to save Free Transfers.  This is the most massive (and surprisingly positive) change in the rules of the FPL game that has ever been made. In the past, with it only being possible to save a measly 2 Free Transfers at a time, you were constantly under pressure to 'use it or lose it' - to make a transfer even when there was no particularly urgent need, just because you would miss out on receiving an extra transfer from the following gameweek if you didn't. That was an irritation - and could lead to some rash, unnecessary, self-damaging squad changes. Ah, but now - with the option introduced this year to store up to 5 FTs at one time, the tactical landscape of the game is dramatically changed: we have far more flexibility to negotiate fixture speed-bumps like blank and double gameweeks, or one-week batches of awkward fixtures. Of course, it remains to be seen how easy it will be to store up transfers; in the last two seasons, injuries seemed to come so thick-and-fast that I was only able to consider rolling a transfer half a dozen times during the year. While we can hope that this year won't see quite such an avalanche of injuries... I think it's likely to be near-impossible to store up the full quota of 5 transfers, and it will probably be misguided - self-damaging - to try (just for the bragging rights!!). But it might be possible to stock up 3 or 4 occasionally; and there will be a strong incentive to try to do so. Being able to use 4 transfers at once is effectively an extra mini-Wildcard, and could make it possible to completely revise traditional chip strategy (which is focused on using Wildcard and/or Free Hit to get around the late-season blank and double gameweeks). Moreover, for any challenging gameweek where you may need to make multiple changes - or, for instance, when offloading Asian and African players just ahead of their regional nations cup competitions, which take place in December/January every other year - in the past you'd have to do that over a number of weeks; now you can save up the necessary transfers and use them all at once, only at the moment they actually become necessary (when you'll know which of the replacement players you're contemplating are fit and in good form; if you make a choice a week or three earlier than you really need to, you can often be caught out - find yourself with a wasted pick that needs to be replaced with another transfer); that too can be a massive help to us this season.

5)  No more 'early' Double Gameweek. For the last several years, we often had one of our top sides getting an extra double-fixture, rather earlier than any of the others, in February or March... as a result of the club having had to miss a gameweek in mid-December to participate in the Club World Cup. This could be - depending on the fixtures, of course - a very tempting option for the Triple Captain chip, with top players like Haaland or Salah enjoying a unique DGW.... in mid-season, before they get knackered. But with the expansion of the Club World Cup format this year, and the tournament being moved to the summer, that nice little Spring Treat is now denied us. [Oh, I hadn't realised the winter tournament is continuing after all, in a very slightly revised format; it's now rebranded as The Intercontinental Cup. So, we might still sometimes see that additional small Double Gameweek in the Spring. But not this year... because Real Madrid won the Champions League again.]

6)  No more 'big' Blank/Double Gameweeks. As I just mentioned above, chip strategy traditionally revolved around negotiating the blank and double gameweeks that pepper the last two months of the season. But the biggest of these, by far, was the Blank Gameweek caused by the FA Cup Quarter-Final weekend (usually around GW29 or 30), and the huge Double Gameweek that followed it, usually with most or all of the rescheduled fixtures being made up at the same time. Now, it was perilous to hang on that long, waiting so late in the season for a Double Gameweek to drop a bonus chip; but it was undoubtedly a very tempting option for the Bench Boost - because with so many teams playing twice in the same week, it was usually quite easy to find 15 players with two good fixtures (or at least one good fixture! [It's really not worth loading up on players who have two tough fixtures - particularly defenders - but many people do!])  This year.... (drum roll)..... it has been decided to suspend the League programme on Quarter-Final weekend - so there will be no Blank Gameweek then, and no following BIG Double. This will give us a lot more flexibility in how to use our Free Hit and 2nd Wildcard. (Indeed, with the new facility to bank up to 5 Free Transfers at a time, these chips may sometimes be somewhat superfluous! Certainly, they're not going to be so life-savingly essential as they have been in the past.)  The focus of chip strategy will shift to the blank FA Semis weekend (this year, Gameweek 34) and the double (or doubles; the rearranged fixtures might be split over different gameweeks, further diluting their value for FPL) ensuing from that; but that is much less of a big deal. Such small double-fixture weeks are not that compelling as a Bench Boost opportunity; and even the Blank Gameweek might be possible to address adequately with saved transfers. Oh, brave new world!

7)  A plethora of decent forwwards.  Also, damn - for the first time in quite a few seasons we have a good number of forward options to choose between. For a few years now, we've had so many forwards injured for most of the season, or chronically out of form, or just nowhere near the level of the obvious top one or two picks, that.... well, you didn't usually start more than two of them... and quite often only one! And there was very little FPL differentiation going on in the forward area. But this year, we have Chris Wood and Danny Welbeck having the best season of their careers, and appearing newly immune to injury worries! Raul Jimenez, too, finally seems to be recapturing the early promise he showed with Wolves, before that horrific head injury. Haaland started incredibly hot, but has faded a little; while Isak and Watkins look to be potential challengers for the top forward honours this year. A lot of people are optimistic for Solanke's prospects now at Spurs too; and indeed Havertz's at Arsenal (he's started really well; but I'm still not convinced he's always going to play at No. 9, or be their primary goal outlet). And there are tempting options for third seat in the ultra-budget category too - such as Liam Delap at Ipswich. Not only do we suddenly have a lot of decent attacking options to choose from, but - with a lot of the usual high-scoring midfielders misfiring so far, or suffering injuries - it's actually becoming legitimate to prefer the 3-4-3 formation, sometimes, at least... and that's something I've very rarely used in the past.

And then.... there's the new 'Mystery Chip' FPL is springing on us this year. For me, this is just a further irritation, an unwelcome additional uncertainty in a season which has already got too much going on! If they'd tell us what the damn chip is a bit earlier in the season, launch it a bit earlier in the season, it wouldn't be so bad. But making us wait until January to even find out what it is; and leaving us to figure out how to accommodate it in the closing months of the season, which is when most people play all of their other chips as well,.... that's just going to get very complicated, the schedule is going to be too crowded with chip options to evaluate.

And it wouldn't be so bad if it were just a simple bonus chip - perhaps just a second Bench Boost or Triple Captain, as has been mooted by some; or a Double Bench Boost, perhaps, where you get twice the points earned by your subs for a week; but I rather fear it is going to be something much more arcane and convoluted - something that may really throw a spanner in the works. [And, oh boy, was I proved right in my misgivings about that damned new chip - and then some!!]

There are quite enough 'new challenges' in this season already. We don't want or need a stupid new Novelty Chip thrown into the mix as well!

A little bit of Zen (11)

 

“The true nature of things can only be seen when the mind is still.”

Shohaku Okumura

Luck-o-Meter (7)

Gosh - did we actually just have a week without any egregious refereeing screw-ups?? Well, very nearly...  And only a couple of VAR interventions (both, a little strangely, directing the ref to take a second look at an incident), which, for once, were both obviously correct. Things are looking up!

Brentford's penalty was perhaps a little dubious: I thought Collins threw himself to the ground a bit hopefully after minimal tangling with Lemina. And it was again a bit of a strange decision-making process, where VAR recommending the ref take a second look was tantamount to awarding the penalty themselves.... and yet we've seen several far stronger penalty shouts this season that didn't seem to get reviewed at all, and it is mystifying why some (only a few so far) get returned to the referee for a second look, but most don't. Wolves might feel a bit hard done-by that Cunha's apparently much stronger appeal near the end of the game was also apparently ignored (it may have been just outside the area, but I didn't see any announcement to that effect; the key thing with VAR is that we need full disclosure about what it's doing and why - but it all still seems a bit vague and chaotic most of the time).

Robertson and Diaz getting 'rested' for no stated reason, and then Macallister getting withdrawn at half-time, and then Alisson picking up a (possibly quite serious) injury half-way through the second-half caused a lot of misery for FPL managers with Liverpool assets (not just the ones direcly involved: every Liverpool player was negatively affected by those absences). And Palace can feel aggrieved they didn't get a penalty when Van Dijk grabbed Guehi's wrist with both hands while he was trying to go for a cross. PGMOL's justificatory statement that the incident was not 'sustained' or 'did not have a sufficient impact' was particularly bizarre: since when have those ever been criteria for awarding a penalty, are those phrases anywhere in the rules??

The disallowing of Lewis Cook's free-kick goal for Bournemouth was rough for him, but an entirely correct call - Evanilson was a mile offside, and trying to get on the end of the ball across the six-yard box (might actually have got some hair on the ball??), so unquestionably 'interfering with play'. Very hard luck on Cook, though, who had looked so surprised and delighted to register such a rare goal.

I also thought Arsenal's second goal - probably the decisive moment in the match - was a bit iffy, since, exactly as in the Lewis Cook instance, there was a player in the middle of the six-yard box (Gabriel, I think?) who was clearly offside and tried to get on the end of Saka's cross, before it went through to Martinelli beyond the far post - and, although he didn't get that near it, this was a substantial enough action to distract the goalkeeper, in my view. But the big clubs almost never have a decision like this go against them - particularly not from VAR!

I didn't see anything remotely contentious about either of the penalty calls in the Everton v Newcastle game. Tarkovski executing a judo throw on Tonali (and almost tearing the shirt off his back in the process) was about as clear-cut as they come. The only mystery there was that the on-pitch officials didn't spot it immediately. And perhaps that this was another instance where VAR recommended a 'second look' (do they not have the authority to award the penalty themselves in a case this obvious??). Similarly, there's no way - except in Sean Dyche's damaged brain - that Calvert-Lewin losing track of where the ball is and kicking Dan Burn instead can lead to an Everton penalty. However, the large number of squandered chances from Newcastle - including a failed penalty conversion from Gordon - was outside the realm of the normal and expected, and so again a small tipping of the scales of the Luck-o-Meter.

We didn't have quite such goalkeeping heroics as last week - except in the Chelsea v Forest match! Although Pickford's penalty stop, and a couple of great saves from Areola and Pope were also outside the bounds of the normal.

Not quite such a feast of spectacular goal-scoring - or near-missing - as in recent weeks either; we had a couple of scorching solo goals from Buonanotte and Doku, and Bruno Fernandes clattering the crossbar with a free-kick, but.... that was about it.

And again a few goals from defenders: Collins, Pinnock and Ait-Nouri - in the same match?!

And just about none of the most popular players came up with anything much this week. In the 'Team of the Week', most people will only have had Saka - and, maybe, Bowen and Ait-Nouri. So, it was a major upset week for many FPL managers (myself included!), but not, I think, a particularly 'lucky' one. In fact, in terms of the really vexing quirks of Fate like bad officiating or bizarre selection decisions, this is probably the best week we've had yet; but the uncanny failure of all the big names to produce in the same week does get it up to about a 3 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter.

GW7 - What did we learn?

Palace v Liverpool was a classic case of the 'lunchtime blues'; Palace, in particular, were incredibly sluggish in the first half; but both sides were probably only at around, at most, 80% of their usual performance levels. The Scousers can count themselves a bit lucky in this one, since Palace came back into the game a bit in the second half, and demanded a few decent saves of Alisson. Palace, along with Wolves, are the most severely under-performing side in the EPL at the moment; they have a good manager, and so much strength in their squad, you feel they must be able to turn things around. But when?? They're getting into that perilous zone where confidence falters, anxiety builds with every missed chance. And Alisson succumbing to a thigh injury - again - must be a bit of a worry for Liverpool fans; hopefully, he'll be back within a month or so, but still.... this is in danger of becoming a habit.

Arsenal continue their run of winning games where they didn't actually look that dominant for much of the time. It's encouraging that Arteta can find so many ways to vary the formation and the personnel and still be effective; but with the current squad, they really are stretched very thin by injuries - and this must surely start to affect their title chances, if the situation goes on much longer (they need no more injuries, and probably one or two new deals in the winter window to keep on a par with City and Liverpool.... and maybe Chelsea?). The final scoreline flattered them considerably, since Southampton might also easily have had 3 goals (one effort on to the roof of the net, another crashed against the crossbar).  I liked Calafiori (can't understand why he wasn't starting earlier - Timber's impressive form notwithstanding) and Havertz (though I still don't really see him as an FPL forward pick, because of his awkward mid-level pricing, when so many of the cheaper options are producing so well at the moment); not so much Raheem Sterling, whose lack of incisiveness may well condemn him to spending most of the season on the bench from here on. Tyler Dibling is surely now getting into contention (though it's an amazingly crowded field this year!) for a cheap midfielder pick; created a brilliant early chance that should have given his team the lead, and then had a good shot of his own graze the post after a deflection later on - he really looks dangerous almost every time he gets on the ball (and he's 0.5 million cheaper than Morgan Rogers!!). Southampton actually show a lot of promise going forward. It's such a pity they still can't defend to save their lives: still the hot favourites to be 'relegated by Christmas', and to have the first manager change of the season (after Ten Hag...).

Brentford's lightning starts (the first goal in just over a minute, despite not having the kick-off themselves; Norgaard's just over 30 seconds after a re-start!) have become a major weapon in the arsenal. But, alas, they still don't look like they've got too much else, and their defence is still rickety. And Flekken (as I've said since pre-season) is perhaps the ricketiest part of it (letting Ait-Nouri's shot through his legs so tamely was just horrific!); why does anyone still think he's a worthwhile goalkeeper pick, at any price?? Ait-Nouri and Semedo might be the two most promising full-back picks for their attacking returns potential.... but not while they look likely to concede 2 or 3 (or more!!) goals every game. I really can't fathom what's gone wrong with Wolves: they were looking a decent mid-table side for much of last season - this year, everything's fallen apart for them. I really like Gary O'Neill, and I hope he can turn things around for them; but he is starting to look like a man who knows his days are numbered. But, wow - that one was just a silly, silly game, with both teams scoring almost every time they got the ball forward.

Leicester needed a goal out of nothing from Facundo Buonanotte (another possible contender in the cheap midfielder stakes!), and some smart goalkeeping from Hermansen (who, despite his club's lowly status in the table, and likelihood of conceding regularly, is starting to look like one of the most appealing 4.5-million picks in goal), to claw out a win they hardly deserved. Boutnemouth were clearly much the better team, but just need to be a bit more clinical in their finishing.

City rode their luck a bit this weekend! Fulham looked the better side for most of the first half, and spells of the second; and if Adama Traore could finish (he can do everything else, but...), they would have won. Pep's boys needed three scorchers from outside the box to nick a win that didn't really feel deserved. Fulham, I think, are now definitely looking like the 'best of the rest', the mid-table side most likely to stake a claim to a European place if one or two of the bigger clubs slip up. Hard to argue with the effectiveness of Marco Silva's gameplan, despite the ultimate lack of reward for it - but the omission of Smith Rowe, their best creative player, was a bit of a puzzler (I assume there was some kind of fitness doubt over him); and a worry for the 27.5% of FPL managers that own him. The Sheep are no doubt getting over-emotional about the brace for Mateo Kovacic. He is indeed more od a goal threat than Rodri, and presumably now a nailed starter for as long as the Spaniard remains out (most of the season, at least, by the looks of it); and he might get into the conversation for cheaper midfield picks (you want one, possibly two or three at 6 million or less), if he can continue to score once every 4 or 5 games - but that is a very big ask. I would watch and wait a bit longer, myself. (And we probably need to initiate an 'Assist of the Season' competition to honour Raul's audacious back-heel dink into the middle of the six-yard box!!)

West Ham - finally - seem to be finding some rhythm and fluency under Lopategui. And it looks like there's a very good spirit among the players too - a happiness and confidence (that you might well have thought would be hard to generate after their rather shakey start to the season). Bowen (who was always a promising mid-price midfield pick for FPL, but hasn't attracted that much enthusiasm so far because of his team's form) and perhaps also Kudus may now start becoming a bit more popular as FPL picks. I have felt so far that Ipswich look way the best of the promoted sides, and have the potential to not just survive, but actually end up in lower mid-table; but this performance was making me question that optimism a bit. The big problem, of course, is Muric - who seems to have an absolute horror-show of a game once in every three or four (a couple of times a season is just about forgivable; but he's done his quota already). I feel sorry for anyone what punted on him as one of their keepers; they're probably going to see a big drop in value on him over the international break. At the other end, Areola distinguished himself with a Gordon Banks 'Pele save' - still one of the best 4.5 keeper options. And that denied Liam Delap a hattrick; that lad is starting to emerge as a forward we should probably all have in our starting line-up, regardless of his bargain-bucket price.

Everton v Newcastle was another head-scratcher: the Geordies did nearly everything right, but their usually impressive finishing somehow completely deserted them. Gordon missed a penalty, FFS! And heck, his miss from open play late in the game was probably an even more egregious waste. Ultimately, though, they needed one of the best saves of the weekend (the second best of the ones not at Stamford Bridge!) from Nick Pope to rescue them a point. And Everton can take some comfort from the fact they managed to stay in the game and nick a point (they haven't got a shred of a case on either of the penalty decisions). However, The Sheep who've piled in for Calvert-Lewin and McNeil are probably having second thoughts already (the latter, I think, remains a very justifiable pick; the former never was).

Villa were perhaps - inevitably - just a little jaded after their midweek heroics against Bayern. United put up a spirited defence, with Onana pulling off a few acrobatic saves, and Jonny Evans doing a very good job of keeping Watkins quiet. But apart from Bruno's free-kick rattling the crossbar, the Reds weren't much of a threat going forward, and you felt that on any other day Villa could probably have won this 3-0. Ten Hag burbled afterwards about "making progress" - but is not being quite so abject as in your previous four or five games enough to save your job? Sorry, I don't think it should be.

My pre-season hunch was that Forest hadn't done anything much to strengthen their squad, and thus would again be lucky to escape relegation. And they didn't look that convincing at the start of the season, labouring to a series of draws against other bottom-half teams. But Nuno finally seems to be getting them to play with a bit more consistency and cohesion; and Chris Wood is defying all reasonable expectations by remaining fit and in-form across a run of several games (I'm still a bit sceptical about how long this may continue - but good for him!). Alas, they've now lost their creative lynchpin, Morgan Gibbs-White (hopefully not for long, but...), and James Ward-Prowse too with a suspension, which must put a dent in their prospects in GW8. Outstanding displays from both keepers dominated the headlines in this game; though Forest's tactical discipline in restricting - though far from snuffing out - the threat of Palmer and Madueke was also noteworthy. (And I think this is the first game this season where Palmer hasn't hit the woodwork - although he did draw two sharp saves from Sels in quick succession at one point. Really, his numbers this season could be absolutely stupid already, he could easily have twice as many goals and assists as he does.)

Finally,.... well, Brighton v Spurs was possibly the most emphatically schizophrenic 'game of two halves' games I've ever seen! And Fabian Hurzeler, in addition to obviously being very tactically shrewd and innovative, would also appear to be boss-level at player motivation; his boys stepped up about five gears after the break, and Spurs just couldn't live with it. Big questions there for Ange - about why his players couldn't put the game to bed in the first half (they were so dominant at first, they could have been, should have been 4 or 5 up by the break, not just 2-0).... and why they capitulated so tamely in the second. Danny Welbeck, I have to say, is looking like a man reborn; I've been sceptical of considering him for an FPL pick because of his injury record (and because of the competition he faces at the club; he might share minutes with Joao Pedro and Evan Ferguson, even when fit), but in this kind of form he is starting to look like an essential acquisition. (I've always liked Danny; I was blown away by him in his debut season with United all those years ago, and got very excited about what he might do for England, if given a chance in the 2010 World Cup. It's such a crying shame that his career has been so restricted by injuries.)  Solanke is also now looking like he's really gelling with Spurs' style of play and could be very, very productive for them. I'm just a little concerned that he looks like he might often be dropping quite deep, and claiming as many assists as goals - but he'll probably get quite a lot of both.

Ah, but of course, any 'lessons' we take from this weekend's games will largely be rendered obsolete by another bloody two-week lay-off.....

Dilemmas of the Week - GW7

Every week, we need to take a long hard look at our squad, and ask ourselves if we want to make any changes....

If we do see a pressing case for a change here or there, we then need to weigh that against the possible advantage of saving our transfer - 'rolling' it over to use in a future week. This option achieves greater tactical complexity this season with the new rule that allows us to save up as many as 5 Free Transfers to use at one time. If we ever manage to do that, it would in effect be a 'mini Wildcard', enabling us to conduct a major squad overhaul in one fell swoop (particularly useful as there are a handful of 'premium' players who cost so much more than everyone else that you can't conveniently move them in and out of your squad without making multiple other changes as well).

Then, of course, occasionally multiple changes may seem so inescapable that we have to consider whether it's worth spending points on 1 or 2 extra transfers (a tactic which obviously deserves a whole post of its own one day).

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 7?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Well, Isak's toe problem is looking a bit of a concern (and has possibly/probably been hampering his performance for a couple of weeks prior, as he tried to play through it), and he seems certain to miss this week as well as last.... might be out for a little while after the international break too. But this - while the uncertainty of the timeline is a test of courage - is still 'short-term'; and you shouldn't have to switch players in and out because of an issue that lasts just a few gameweeks. Isak is still one of the best strikers in the game; we should only be playing (at most!) two strikers in most weeks, and we should have a decent enough third-string that we can afford to go without one of our preferred starters for a little bit. The problem, alas, is that, combined with a general - though unwarranted - loss of faith in Isak over the past month, this injury flag is prompting a big sell-off and he's likely to drop in price further. If you're confident that he's worth keeping long-term, this shouldn't bother you, as his price will eventually recover - perhaps even to somewhat above what it was originally. But speculators may fret that they're missing an opportunity to build squad value by selling him now and buying him back again when he's cheaper.

Rodri is now confirmed to be out with an ACL injury, and is unlikely to be available again before the end of the season. DeBruyne again missed Champions League action this week, so seems likely to miss at least one more Premier League game (although he's in fewer than 5% of FPL teams at the moment; and those hopeful few are probably going to sit tight on him, expecting a comeback straight after the international break). Haaland was said to have picked up a 'knock' in the Bratislava game, but doesn't look like a doubt for the weekend (and you really don't rotate him out unless he's got a long-term injury).

Ben White apparently has a groin problem (probably what's kept him out of the last two starts, unannounced?), and is likely to be out until after the international break. Timber is also now a doubt, having been pulled off at half-time against PSG (although Arteta suggested that was only 'precautionary', after he'd felt some 'tightness'). This sudden uncertainty about what had seemed a very stable and predictable Arsenal back-line in the opening games of the season is a bit of an upset (thank god for Gabriel!). Again, if you have these players, you ought to be able to carry them on the bench for a while (though only just over 6% now have White, just 2% for Timber); but confidence was perhaps already waning in White, who's failed to produce much going forward as yet; while Timber, although he's been in outstanding form and was the cheapest route into the Arsenal defence, was always a minutes-risk, because of the higher likelihood of rotation you have to expect with a new addition to the first team, and the high chance of re-injury associated with players returning from a long-term absence. Calafiori also had an injury scare last week, but seems to be OK; the question-mark over his two main rivals in the full-back slots means that he must be just about guaranteed a start this week (perhaps Kiwior too), which is good news for his 2% ownership. (Merino is apparently back training with the squad, rather earlier than originally suggested - though he must still be some way off any chance of a start.)

Brighton's van Hecke could miss several weeks with a groin problem (but I don't imagine many people had him); I suppose Adam Webster (down to 4.4 million), may become an attractive cheap defender pick for a while.

Chris Richards is still out with a hamstring problem at Palace (though it seems new signing Trevoh Chalobah might be available to deputise for him at last) - again, not likely to be a concern for many FPL managers.

Jota and Robertson have successfully shaken off minor knocks from last weekend, and look set to start OK this week. Nunez, who apparently missed last week with illness, should also be available - but probably only from the bench. There is a lot of speculation that Luis Diaz could be rested, after playing the full game against Bologna in midweek, to give Gakpo an EPL run-out. But I'm a bit sceptical about that; Lucho's form has been so good, he surely has to start every game, if he's fit - or deserves to, anyway. (The strength of Liverpool's squad - and Arne Slot's unfortunate penchant for subbing players off at around 58 minutes! - is a source of unease for anyone selecting their players.)

Oh, and Son is still a doubt at Spurs (but surely hadn't been playing well enough to justify FPL selection anyway, certainly not at his very high price-tag...).

But NONE of these (apart from Rodri, who had minimal ownership, as he'd already been missing for the start of the season with the muscle strain he picked up in the Euros Final) are sufficiently serious to justify using transfers on; you don't flip top players in and out just because they might miss one or two Gameweeks; this year, more than ever, it's important to try to roll transfers whenever possible, to bank them for a more impactful double or triple change in a later week.

Happily, we don't seem to have had any significant new worries emerge from the latest batch of European games.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Bruno Fernandes is 'back' - having got his ban for last week's red card (rightly) overturned on appeal. Happy news for the 7.5% of Fantasy managers who (unaccountably!) own him. But, really, why would anyone own any United players - even their best one - at the moment? As they're lurching towards an all-time post-Fergie low, and the inevitable, long-overdue sacking of their manager?

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

No new news here, I don't think.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

The big 'gold rush' this week, of course, is for Cole Palmer, after his record-breaking week (first player ever to bag 4 goals in the first half of an EPL game!). But really, he was obviously going to be one of the two or three best players for the season, and everyone should have had him in their initial squad. As I mentioned a week or two back. Sancho is becoming a tempting pick from Chelsea too; though his awkward pricing at 6.5 (well, 6.4 currently) reduces his appeal, when there are so many attractive options around or below 6.0 million this year.

Dwight McNeil, thriving in a more central, No. 10 kind of role, and currently looking like a regular goal threat, also demands attention. If you're only going for one cheap midfielder, I still think Emile Smith Rowe is likely to produce more over the season, if only because Fulham look set for a fairly comfortable mid-table finish while Everton, despite their rediscovery of some attacking form, seem likely to be in the relegation scrap again. However, if you're going for two players in that price category, McNeil is possibly edging out Semenyo as the next best option; and he might even be worth switching in for Smith Rowe in the fifth seat while he's on such a hot streak.

Delap at Ipswich is also causing some excitement after his brace (so nearly a hattrick!) against Villa. I always counsel that you shouldn't get over-excited about one good performance; but Delap has been playing well all season (and I tipped him as possibly one of the best budget forwards this year before the first kick-off). Similarly, Everton's Ndiaye is on fire at the moment, and, for me, a far preferable budget forward pick to his inconsistent and injury-prone teammate Calvert-Lewin (and he's 600k cheaper too!).

There's been a lot of excitement among The Sheep about Evanilson's finally getting off the mark at Bournemouth. That was indeed a very good finish on Monday night. But... that's only one performance: not enough to go plunging in for a squad change. Even if he does start playing like that every week, I worry that Bournemouth have so much attacking talent that they are going to be sharing their goals around too much: Semenyo, Ouattara, Tavernier, Sinisterra, and Kluivert will all be claiming a share of a finite points pie.... and, although they're all very good, that probably makes none of them quite worth having for FPL.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A little bit of Zen (10)

 

"The obstacle is the path."

Zen proverb

The Cult of Aston Villa??

I originally made these remarks last week, in my regular rundown of the main Gameweek selection issues; but they seemed a little out of place there, so I thought I'd rewrite them slightly and give them the space of their own post now.

This train of thought was initially triggered by pondering the Morgan Rogers phenomenon. An astonishing 17% of FPL managers owned him after GW5 (now up to nearly 21%!), most of them from the start of the season; presumably just because he seemed worth taking a punt on at only 5 million quid, after a good showing in pre-season. But it might well have been a fairly unthinking choice for many, simply the cheapest 5th seat option to fill out the midfield roster, if trying to save money to afford Haaland (or Salah or Palmer...).

He was indeed fantastic for Villa in pre-season, scoring a few goals. He then - slightly unexpectedly - become a regular starter, and a key player for them. He has been playing extremely well in the early games, without registering any FPL returns. Then, in GW5 he produced a couple of excellent assists. And he still only cost 5.0 million! 

However, I didn't see an argument for bringing him in (if you didn't already have him), and I still don't. My misgivings are that he's playing as quite a deep No. 10, mostly quite central; unless he gets out wide more, or up around the penalty box more often, he's not likely to register any goals, or many assists (he's claimed a number of 'pre-assists' - but you don't earn any points for those); you can be a very good player without earning any FPL points recognition for it... and, so far, Rogers has mostly been one of those.

Well, that was what I said a week ago. And then, of course, the Rogers fandom get all I-told-you-so triumphalist because he finally a scored a goal this weekend. Sorry, that proves nothing. That goal found him drawn into the central attacking position because Ollie Watkins had, somewhat unusually, pulled out wide on to the left wing; the ball was actually played to him by a defender's mis-kicked clearance; and even then his first instinct was to lay the ball off to Watkins rather than attempting a strike himself; only when that pass drew three defenders towards Watkins, and Watkins returned it smartly to him to allow him a fairly easy finish, did he grab his chance. I haven't seen Rogers's 'touch map' for the game, but I'd guess that might have been the only time he got on the ball in the box. That was not a goal that suggests he's now likely to become a regular scorer. Quite the opposite - it was obviously something of a freak occurrence, and there was much about it that confirmed all my previous misgivings about the way Emery has him playing.

Good - potentially great - though he is, Rogers has been mostly playing far too deep to get many assists or goal opportunities; and even when he does get up around the box, he's tending to be too unselfish - always looking for Watkins (or Bailey, or someone else) as the goal outlet. Perhaps he will gradually start pushing forward more, especially as McGinn, usually Villa's most attack-minded midfielder, is now out for a while with a hamstring problem. I don't at all write off the chances for Rogers becoming a significant FPL asset; I'm just very sceptical as to whether he's become that yet.

But Rogers is just the most conspicuous example of an odd mass hysteria going on around Aston Villa this season (perhaps because they were last year's 'most improved' club??).  Going into Gameweek 6, Emi Martinez had over 13% ownership, yet wasn't even in the top 15 goalkeepers.  Konsa was at nearly 14% ownership, but - even after scoring a rare-as-hen's-teeth goal in GW5 - wasn't even in the top 10 defenders at his price-point! Rogers barely scraped into the top 15 midfielders in the sub-6-million category. Onana (nearly 12% owned) was only 4th in that bracket (and his 2 early goals were obviously a bit of a flash-in-the-pan; a stolid central defensive midfielder, but very unlikely to make a charge for the Golden Boot...). And Jhon Duran was up to 5.5% ownership - despite costing over 6 million, and not being a first-team starter?! 

This exaggerated enthusiasm for Villa players is only likely to intensify after their historic win over Bayern on Wednesday night (I had the joy of being able to watch that in a pub in Birmingham). Duran's stunning winner there is driving many to think that he might soon be getting a start in the Villa attack, and he's now surged above 6.5% ownership. If that happens (still unlikely), he's going to be sharing the goals with Watkins, not displacing him. He does indeed look a very exciting player, and should be good for a fair few goals, even off the bench (I tipped him as a prospect in pre-season, and was hoping one of the rumoured transfers to a club where he'd get a regular start would come off). But at the moment, he's just a super-sub - and that's not worth having in FPL.

All of this is MADNESS: none of these players are remotely worth considering, even as a 'cheap' last choice. Is Unai Emery some sort of weird cult leader...???

Luck-o-Meter (6)

Oh dear, after a blissful - but probably freakish - week of almost no refereeing cock-ups last time, we were back to business-as-usual in Gameweek 6.

Leicester were so overwhelmed by Arsenal that they can't really dispute the result; but they can feel rightfully aggrieved that Arsenal finished with 11 men still on the pitch. Saliba could have, should have picked up a yellow for holding back Vardy (the foul that should have invalidated Arsenal's breakthrough goal), which would have meant that his later 'professional foul' on the veteran forward would have got him sent off. But a not-given 'first yellow' is, of course, always a bit more tenuous in its impact, as a player is likely to be more cautious to avoid further offences if carded early on. Calafiori's blatant trip later in the game, when already on a yellow, was a clearcut case of a mandatory second card that would remove him from the pitch.

Getting that first goal when they did could have had a major impact on the course of the game as well. If Leicester had been able to hang on till half-time, maybe they could have got into the match more...  And once again, we have to wonder what the VAR team are doing this season. They are supposed to examine all possible fouls in the passage of play leading to a goal; and Arsenal's turnover of possession at the start of that scoring move was clearly the result of Saliba tugging Vardy's shoulder and throwing him off balance. WTF?

Arsenal may feel they might have had a penalty, but I didn't see much in Faes's challenge on Calafiori - and even the 'victim' didn't complain much about it, which is usually a sign that the incident was innocuous. Trossard scored Arsenal's second moments later anyway, so that would have made no difference to the result.... though quite a bit to the FPL points!

And how was James Justin credited with both goals, when the first clearly went in off Havertz's shoulder?! Fewer points for the Leicester defender and an own-goal deduction for Havertz would be a major swing in the FPL returns for that match.

In an extraordinarily eventful game, we saw a number of other freak-ish moments: an astonishing 13 saves from Hermansen, including a brilliant double-stop from Gabriel (particularly impressive), and then Calafiori on the follow-up; Trossard hitting the post; and that wonder-volley from Justin! And a very fortuitous final goal for Havertz...

And how did Gabriel not score, with 17 corners in the game??

Just that one fixture might have had vastly different FPL outcomes. And then we had the Chelsea v Brighton humdinger!

A lot of FPL folks seem aggrieved at how 'surprising' Palmer's superb showing in this game was (they shouldn't have been surprised: he's been playing excellently all season, even in the difficult opener against City). And they gripe that a 25-point haul is a 'black swan event'... but, well, for Palmer, it's really not: you can probably count on him putting in a performance like that at least two or three times a season. Managers who are smarting because they didn't have him this week should take comfort from the fact that things could have been very much worse for them. He put his first chance against the right-hand post. had his second effort ruled out for a very tight offside, and in the second half, he somehow stroked his easiest chance of the lot just wide... Jackson and Madueke both spurned good chances he set up for them as well. The Cold One could easily have notched 7 goals, and 2 or 3 assists - for a record-breaking 45 or 50-point haul! 

Estupinan was a little lucky to escape a straight red for denying a goal-scoring opportunity (though it was a long way out, and Webster was quite close by, providing possible cover); again, it made no difference to the result, as Palmer stroked home the 30-yard free-kick; but it was another questionable decision that affected the FPL points tally. Mateta getting flattened from behind by Tarkowski on the edge of the box was much more clearcut - how could that penalty be turned down? (And, yet again, no action from VAR??)  Ipswich captain Sam Morsy should also have been dismissed for a second bookable foul. But of course, Bruno Fernandes' red card was ridiculous - and seems likely to be overturned on appeal (but that won't help FPL managers; although anyone that had Bruno in their team doesn't deserve any favours!!); and once again, VAR did nothing?

Murillo was a little lucky to escape conceding a second penalty against Fulham after bumbling into the back of Tete (which surely would have given Raul an even better haul for the weekend); but the earlier challenge on Perreira looked slight, and there seemed to be no really clear view of it on the TV cameras - so, it seemed somewhat bizarre that VAR thought the referee should take a second look at it (is this the first time this season we've seen such an instruction?). Liverpool's late penalty similarly looked rather soft; but it was too tough a call for VAR to overrule the referee, or direct a pitchside review (it's still maddeningly unclear what the distinguishing criteria are for those two options). And Newcastle surely should have had a second penalty for Walker's clumsy challenge on Joelinton. Penalty decisions have been conspicuously bad all season; and VAR's unfathomable reluctance to provide any assistance on these incidents is making matters worse. I hope PGMOL are taking steps to address this, because it's really ruining the game at the moment.

Apart from Cole Palmer's dazzling display, there were few outstanding individual performances this week, and fewer spectacular goals or near misses than in many weeks so far. Garnacho and Johnson both hit efforts against the woodwork, and Romero's scissor-kick volley was only just wide. But it was great goalkeeping that had the bigger impact this week, with some exceptional saves, particularly from Ederson, Pope, and Vicario, and by Emi Martinez from Kalvin Phillips, and later from Delap (to deny him his hattrick). 

It was an unusually high-scoring week, though, with only Fulham and Spurs managing to keep clean sheets. And there were (again) a strangely high number of goals from defenders: Justin, Gvardiol, Konate, Guehi, Ait-Nouri, Harwood-Bellis (and a stunning assist from rampaging Micky van de Ven!)

However, there were no real upset results this week. Arsenal and Liverpool being given such a tough time by bottom-of-the-table clubs might have been slightly surprising (and unsettling for their fans) - but they still won, just about. And Villa being held to a draw by Ipswich was no doubt an upset to Villa fans, but shouldn't really have been a great surprise, since Villa haven't quite rediscovered last year's form yet, and Ipswich are clearly a much tougher opponent than the other two promoted sides.

No big surprises, either, in the major points returners: in the 'Team of the Week' this time, probably only Brighton's Carlos Baleba is a player that nobody owns; there's a strong case for having all of the others - even if, apart from Palmer and Watkins, they're not super-popular 'template' choices.

A final factor that should be weighed in the 'luck' scales is the weird BPS shenanigans that went on with Saka this week. He was originally awarded a BPS score of 39. This provoked a wave of outrage on the FPL forums as, even though he did indeed have a very lively and influential game, it seemed hard to justify giving him as much credit as Martinelli (who had both scored and assisted, which earn huge BPS merit; whereas Saka had managed neither in this game), and more than Trossard (who also had a goal and an assist) or Justin (who was credited with two goals). It seems the FPL minions were themselves embarrassed by this aberration, and somehow contrived to dock Saka a couple of his BPS points, so that he only got 1 bonus point rather than the 3 he was originally going to be awarded. I haven't seen any explanation offered for this odd subterfuge - which does rather undermine people's faith in the whole BPS system (which is widely unpopular for its often seemingly erratic and unfair distribution of the extra points, and its lack of transparency).

Overall, I think this Gameweek was less riddled with unlikely or unjust incidents than most, but some conspicuously dodgy refereeing calls still probably gets it up to a 6 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter.

GW6 - What did we learn?

City v Newcastle was a real 'game of two halves', the home side much more enterprising and determined after the break - and really looking like they might have been able to steal the win from a City side who, without Rodri or DeBruyne or Foden, looked pretty lacklustre. They really ought to have had a second penalty for Walker's clumsy challenge on Joelinton; and City needed a sharp performance from Ederson in goal to keep them alive. Newcastle are much less incisive without the outstanding Isak to lead the line, although Gordon does a decent job filling in as a No. 9, and at least this switch allows Harvey Barnes and/or Jacob Murphy, also both outstanding, to play from the start. Newcastle still look very shakey at the back; but they have more than enough attacking threat to be well up in the European places again.

Arsenal rode their luck rather, after allowing Leicester back into a game that they should have had comfortably sewn up - their further two goals very late in the game were extremely fortuitous, and harsh on a Leicester side who had fought so bravely, and showed great defensive organisation against Arsenal's many, many set pieces (astonishing that they had 17 corners in the match yet Gabriel didn't score!!). Saliba didn't have a great game, and both he and Calafiori were very fortunate not to pick up two yellows and a sending-off. I didn't see anything in Faes's challenge that would have justified a penalty award, and 'victim' Calafiori didn't really complain, so I don't think Arteta or Arsenal fans have got any valid gripe there; since Trossard snatched their second goal only moments later, it was irrelevant anyway. Arsenal's attacking performance should give a lot of comfort to FPL managers who are sticking with their assets during Odegaard's absence; although they would not have been able to enjoy such extended periods of dominance against a side who posed more of an attacking threat than Leicester. Leicester fans might feel a bit hard done-by that Arsenal's initial breakthrough goal clearly should have been disallowed for a foul on Vardy which enabled the turnover of possession. But they can at least feel good about a very encouraging defensive display, and an exceptional performance from their keeper Hermansen, who registered an incredible 13 saves (giving him a decent FPL return for the week, despite conceding 4 goals).

Teams are obviously going to have to wise up to Brentford's 'quick starts'. But after that early firecracker goal from Mbeumo, Brentford again failed to show much; their defense continues to be a worrying mess. While West Ham are - very slowly - starting to find a bit of rhythm. Both still looking like they'll struggle to be better than lower mid-table, though, and not offering any tempting FPL options - apart from the currently on-fire Mbeumo... and maybe Bowen?

Sanchez again had a bit of a 'mare for Chelsea, being at fault for both Brighton goals (though somewhat redeemed himself with a fine save from Baleba very shortly after the second); if he carries on being this awful on the ball, I can see him being replaced fairly soon (good though he is as a shot-stopper, I am really struggling to grasp why he's got the start anyway). Baleba, though sometimes a bit clumsy in defence, is starting to look as if he has some goalscoring potential too, and might perhaps enter the crowded competition for cheap 5th midfielder. Jackson failed to convert three very good chances in the second half, but again looked very lively overall; fickle FPL managers who just brought him in after last week's excellent performance might immediately be 'disappointed' in him, but no-one with any sense should be. And Cole Palmer - dear me!!!  Some people apparently didn't think he'd been playing that well so far this season. They have perceptual difficulties. First EPL player ever to net 4 goals in the first half??!! The really astonishing thing here is that he might actually have had 7 goals and 2 or 3 assists, for a record-smashing 45 or 50-point gameweek! Sancho also had another very good game. Chelsea are looking on the up; Brighton are having their fundamental weaknesses increasingly exposed.

Everton finally managed to register a win, and really looked good for it - against a Palace side who are still struggling to find much cohesion. However, Palace might well feel aggrieved that they were denied a very clear penalty when Tarkowski flattened Mateta from behind on the edge of the box (what is VAR doing these days???).  The return at last of Jarrad Branthwaite to the defence is no doubt a big lift to Dyche's team. And Dwight McNeil is in absolutely outstanding form, seems to be relishing being switched into a more consistently influential No. 10 sort of role. Ndiaye is also emerging as a major force (though this is probably bad news for all those who piled in for Calvert-Lewin in the last couple of weeks; the lively Senegalese striker now looks set to be at least taking a major share of Everton's goalscoring, if not stealing DCL's thunder altogether). Jack Harrison, though, continues to be strangely anonymous; I have hopes of him emerging as a potential FPL asset too; but at the moment, it's just not happening.

Forest, even at their intimidating home ground, were predictably underwhelming without their talismanic playmaker Gibbs-White. Murillo was a little lucky to escape conceding a second penalty to Fulham after bumbling into the back of Tete; but the earlier challenge on Perreira looked slight, and there seemed to be no really clear view of it on the TV cameras - so, it seemed somewhat bizarre that VAR thought the referee should take a second look at it (is this the first time this season we've seen such an instruction?). Despite this reservation about the refereeing, though, Fulham, despite also playing somewhat below their recent best, were worth the win. Smith Rowe and Adama Traore were a little quiet in this one, but will surely be back among the FPL points soon; Raul Jimenez continues to look like a very tempting pick - perhaps currently the most tempting - for that cheap third striker spot.

Liverpool had another one of their below-par games, and were really a bit lucky to go away with all three points; the late penalty award seemed pretty soft to me. Wolves, at last, are starting to show a bit more organisation, a bit more fight. They really don't deserve to be dead last in the league now; and I remain confident that Gary O'Neill can get them back towards the middle of the table by the turn of the year.

Villa were perhaps a bit fortunate in the end to hang on to a point against a very plucky Ipswich side. Martinez had to pull off a couple of outstanding saves from Phillips and Delap (to deny him a hattrick) to keep them in the game. I am quietly chuffed that Delap, who I'd tipped as one of the best cheap striker options in pre-season, is starting to prove me right. One of my other most controversial pieces of advice, though - that Morgan Rogers isn't yet worthy of inclusion in an FPL team - might appear to be under challenge, as he's now got among the points two weeks in succession. For now, I hold to my view. His debut goal this week found him drawn into the central attacking position because Ollie Watkins had, somewhat unusually, pulled out on to the left wing; the ball was actually played to him by a defender's mis-kicked clearance; and even then his first instinct was to lay the ball off to Watkins rather than attempting a strike himself; only when that pass drew three defenders towards Watkins, and Watkins returned it to him to allow him  a fairly easy finish, did he grab his chance. I haven't seen Rogers's 'touch map' for the game, but I'd guess that might have been the only time he got on the ball in the box. My feeling so far has been that, good - potentially great - though he is, Rogers has been mostly playing far too deep to get many assists or goal opportunities; and even when he does get up around the box, he's tending to be too unselfish - always looking for Watkins (or Bailey, or someone else) as the goal outlet. Perhaps he will gradually start pushing forward more, especially as McGinn, usually Villa's most attack-minded midfielder, is now out for a while with a hamstring problem. I don't at all write off the chances for Rogers becoming a significant FPL asset; I'm just very sceptical as to whether he's become that yet.

Bruno's sending-off was clearly unjust; but United can't really blame the size of their loss solely on that. They were playing dismally and being completely dominated by Spurs even before that. Yet again, the Reds looked disorganised and lacking enthusiasm for the fight - and that has to be on the manager. For whatever reason, Ten Hag just hasn't worked out as a coach there, and should have been replaced long since; a mid-season departure now looks almost certain - it's just a question of when. Very encouraging performance for Spurs fans, that they were able to play so fluently and incisively even without Son. Brennan Johnson is another fringe FPL player who will be starting to get attention for his hot form.

Difficult to tell much from very brief highlights, but it did look as though Southampton - despite taking a bit of a thrashing from Bournemouth - are improving; they looked quite resolute in defence in the latter part of the game, and created a fair bit of attacking threat too. A good win will no doubt give Bournemouth some confidence, but we'll need to see them tested against sterner opposition before we can make a decision on bringing in any of their players. Evanilson got off the mark with a very good finish, but it's too early to get excited about him as a third striker prospect - particularly as competition is so fierce at the budget end of the forward category this year.

What makes a 'sheep pick'?

 

A sudden, irrational stampede to buy a certain player may have a few causes. These are the most common:

1)  Being too reactive, being too influenced by events in the last game.  [You can sometimes draw sound conclusions about trends in form - for an individual or a team - from a single performance, but it's difficult, not generally reliable; and you need to look at more subtle details of the all-around play, the interactions between players, intimations of confidence and eagerness in the body-language, etc.... not just the headline events. In general, you need at least two or three games to be confident that a sustained swing in form is emerging.] 

2)  Allowing yourself to be swayed by 'influencers'.... or by 'what everybody else seems to be doing'.  You should always make sure you have a carefully thought-out reason for any selection. The fact that 'a lot of other people are buying him' or 'someone recommended him' is NOT a good reason; in fact, it's more often a bit of a warning 'red flag'!

3)  Allowing yourself to be swayed by personal sympathies (one of the great FPL vices I warned against in an early post back in August): managers are more likely to become over-optimistic about a player's prospects after one 'good performance' if he's someone they already like, or he plays for the team they support.

4)  Being greedy and desperate. FPL managers often become too easily dissatisfied with the current members of their squad, and cast around hastily for possible replacements. It is these emotional, impulsive transfers that tend to result in 'sheep picks'.

5)  Failing to consider the broader circumstances. Very often a 'sheep pick' will look good for one particular reason - yes, this forward is looking sharp in front of goal; yes, this defender is unexpectedly getting a run of starts in a team who haven't conceded many goals; etc. - but his eager buyers are ignoring other important factors like a poor injury record, or uncertainty about him keeping his start, or the impact of possible shifts in tactical formation, or a tough run of upcoming fixtures. With the ones I've highlighted so far this season, the main thing people seem to be overlooking is that, however promising these players might be, there are simply some even better picks at the same price!

A little bit of Zen (9)

 

“Man suffers only because he takes seriously what the gods made for fun.”

Alan Watts

Dilemmas of the Week - GW6

 Every week, we need to take a long hard look at our squad, and ask ourselves if we want to make any changes....

If we do see a pressing case for a change here or there, we then need to weigh that against the possible advantage of saving our transfer - 'rolling' it over to use in a future week. This option achieves greater tactical complexity this season with the new rule that allows us to save up as many as 5 Free Transfers to use at one time. If we ever manage to do that, it would in effect be a 'mini Wildcard', enabling us to conduct a major squad overhaul in one fell swoop (particularly useful as there are a handful of 'premium' players who cost so much more than everyone else that you can't conveniently move them in and out of your squad without making multiple other changes as well).

Then, of course, occasionally multiple changes may seem so inescapable that we have to consider whether it's worth spending points on 1 or 2 extra transfers (a tactic which obviously deserves a whole post of its own one day).

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 6?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

The Sheep seem to be getting their collective knickers in a knot about Joao Pedro (owned by nearly 25% of managers! but surely only a third-choice for any of them...?) having picked up an ankle knock last weekend. It's said to be minor; he should only be out for a week or so. You don't waste transfers on problems like that.

Rodri, of course, is the only major loss this week. Though the pervasive rumour that he's done his ACL and might well miss the rest of the season is as yet unconfirmed by the club. I thought he didn't look to be in that much pain, and managed to hobble off the pitch unaided. With an ACL rupture, they just about always put a leg-brace on to stabilise the joint immediately, and take you off on a stretcher - so, I think it looks like something less serious than that. But we still don't know. He was probably only in a very small percentage of Fantasy teams anyway; but, given how badly City's form has suffered whenever they have been without him in recent years (win ratio way down, goals conceded way up.... resistance to the quick counter-attack, almost zero!), his absence probably diminishes the appeal of any City defensive assets you may have. I suspect this may tip the balance, in particular, against Gvardiol, who hasn't performed up to the absurdly inflated expectations people had of him when he became one of the most popular defender picks in initial drafts. On the other hand, the stock of Kovacic and Gundogan (and Rico Lewis?) may rise, as they can be expected to fill a more regular and prominent role in the Spaniard's absence.

In better news for City fans, Pep seems hopeful that DeBruyne, who picked up an injury in the Inter game last week, will be OK for this week.

Villa's John McGinn picked up a hamstring problem last weekend, and looks set to be out for a while; but he hadn't yet had much impact this year, and was very low-owned in Fantasy.

At Brentford, Norgaard missed the Spurs game last week with a minor problem, but Thomas Frank hopes he'll be back this week. Again, very low-owned.

Seamus Coleman's muscle injury picked up on international duty earlier this month is apparently much worse than originally thought, and he might now be absent for a while. Very, very low-owned.

The biggest injury news of the week is that Alisson (owned by more than 10%) seems likely to miss out again with his muscle injury, and is now joined by Raya with a similar problem (by far the highest-owned keeper in the game, at well over 30%). This probably diminishes the value of Liverpool and Arsenal defenders slightly; but it's a nice windfall for anyone who took a punt on Kelleher as their back-up keeper choice.... or anyone who omitted to ditch Neto when Bournemouth let him go. There's no reason to discard Alisson or Raya for short-term concerns like this. But goalkeeper injuries have been becoming more common and more serious recently. The temporary sidelining of the two top keepers in the game is a useful reminder that everyone needs a playing back-up keeper.

And, of course, Trossard and Gibbs-White are suspended this week, after getting themselves sent off last weekend. (Their owners should count themselves lucky it was only a one-week ban, as both offences might have been deemed 'violent conduct' or 'endangering an opponent'...)  [CORRECTION: Trossard was able to serve his ban in the mid-week League Cup game, so he is in fact available for this weekend's EPL game.]

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Pep and Mikel love to give FPL managers sleepless nights, and they really outdid themselves with last Sunday's shock decisions to omit Rico Lewis and Ben White. I remain convinced that these guys are an indispensable choice for the roles they fill at the club, and have to be preferred starters every week (probably just being rested, or left out for a one-off tactical reason last time?). But who knows if our unpredictable super-managers will agree?  It is a worry for now. But I'd suggest a wait-and-see approach for at least a week or two before deciding to offload either of them.

Jota, of course, has been mysteriously dropped for two games, so apparently may have some sort of problem - or Slot just wants to share minutes between him and Nunez??  He's always - unfortunately - a dubious pick because of the high injury-risk associated with him; and he was always surely a distant third choice from the Liverpool attacking midfield behind Salah and Diaz. But yeah, if you have him.... might be time to say goodbye.

Did anyone have Mudryk?? I think Sancho is going to keep him in the Chelsea reserves this season.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Well.... we might be developing collective worries about Arsenal, if Raya's going to be out for more than a week. Theyre struggling creatively without Odegaard (expected to miss at least another three weeks), and have been relying more than usual on Raya's accurate distribution to beat the press with a variety of passes into midfield - indeed, often trying to go long to get a quick counter-attack going (although that hasn't been working too well so far, as they don't have anyone apart from Havertz who can win an aerial ball up front). Arsenal also have a little bit of a fixture speedbump coming up, with Liverpool, Newcastle, and Chelsea back-to-back from the end of next month (although three much easier games before that); so, it might perhaps be a time to consider moving away from the likes of Trossard or Havertz... or maybe even Saka.

With a weak-ish clean sheet record and a high threat of shared minutes, I don't think any of City's defenders were ever worth 6 million; with Rodri no longer present to screen them, their goals conceded numbers are likely to get even worse, and they can't be worth 5 million.... or even 4.5 (nor Ederson either, of course). Though Rico Lewis might still be worth 4.5 because he plays more as a midifielder and can pick up good attacking returns.

The Sheep seem to be losing confidence in Isak - but that's just daft. Newcastle aren't playing that well, but they're still a dangerous counter-attacking side, and Isak is a world-class finisher. You might consider dropping him because someone else is in sensational form and/or has more promising fixtures... but not because you have doubts about Isak himself.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, I'm surprised to find myself saying this - after being a frequent detractor and derider for much of last season - but... Nico Jackson!!  For some time last season (starting after the one-off hattrick against Spurs!) he became an unjustifably popular pick in FPL-land, and the forums were often inundated with posters asking if he or any other random striker should be preferred for the coming week. I grew so exasperated by this that I was eventually prompted to come up with the once-and-for-all response: "There is NO 'Jackson or....?' question to which the answer is 'Jackson'."  But.... I'm sorry, Nicolas Jackson, you have redeemed yourself!

To be fair, his pace and strength have always made him a handful, and even last season his finishing was quite slick in certain situations - especially when he was able to race clear on to a long ball and get in one-on-one with the keeper (just like his 2 goals last weekend). It was only in more static situations, where he had more defenders nearby to worry about, wasn't unsettling the keeper with his rapid advance, or just had a moment to pause and consider his options... that he would go all Darwin Nunez and spack it up. But his greater weakness last year was his movement off the ball; we often saw his midfielders - Palmer, Gallagher, Enzo - throwing their arms up in despair at his odd choices or bad timing, often just giving the ball to someone else, or attempting a shot themselves. He seems now to be getting much, much better in this department (though there's still some room for improvement; he still gets flagged offside far too often). And his form is white-hot; he's playing with huge energy and confidence. Haaland, Watkins, and Isak remain the 'holy trinity' of strikers this season, clearly a class above the rest of the field; but I think Jackson currently edges out the best of the rest: Solanke, Havertz, Mateta.

Raul is suddenly looking very sharp at Fulham too, back to his pre-head injury best. But this might be a flash-in-the-pan. I'd counsel a wait-and-see, assess him for another few weeks before considering him for the third striker seat.

And I'm hesitant to jump on the Chris Wood bandwagon, since he has been notoriously inconsistent and injury-prone throughout his career, and Forest still don't look like a club who are going to be far away from relegation. But damn, he's in great form at the moment; and on pens too. I think the main argument against him is that, even at 6 million, he's a little expensive; there are several surprisingly good options even cheaper. But if this goal-streak continues, he's worth considering not just as a third-seat back-up, but as the second pick.

And for a couple of slightly more left-field suggestions, how about Lallana and Dibling at Southampton?  Their combination for the goal on Saturday was truly a thing of beauty. Dibling looks to be a very lively prospect, and an excellent finisher. And Lallana is playing as well as he ever has; I think he's likely to be providing the assists for the majority of whatever goals The Saints manage to score this season. Southampton are bound to be relegated; but they're not nearly as dire as Sheffield and Burnley were last season, and actually show quite a bit of threat going forward (so, they're more like Luton?). Both these guys are well worth considering if you're badly squeezed for budget on your last midfield slot.

Morgan Rogers is a conundrum. He was fantastic for Villa in pre-season, scoring a few goals. He has - slightly unexpectedly - become a regular starter, and a key player for them. He's been playing extremely well. And this weekend, he produced a couple of excellent assists. And he only costs 5.0 million! However, I don't see an argument for bringing him in.... if you don't already have him (around 17% do; but a lot of that was probably down to unthinking initial squad picks, just going for the cheapest available player to fill out the midfield roster). My misgivings are that he's playing as quite a deep No. 10, mostly quite central; unless he gets out wide more, or up around the penalty box more often, he's not likely to register any goals, or many assists (he's claimed a number of 'pre-assists' - but you don't earn any points for those); you can be a very good player without earning any FPL points recognition for it... and, so far, Rogers has been one of those.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Luck-o-Meter (5)

 Can it really be true? Is the refereeing in the EPL getting better?  Oh by gosh, by golly, I think it is. Well, less worse, anyway!

It might be an unrepresentative blip, which will reverse itself in a week or two, but this week there were very few 'big' decisions.... and just about no WRONG ones.

I already discussed most of these in my more detailed rundown of the week's games the other day, but to recap....

The two sendings-off: absolutely uncontroversial, in my view. Trossard committed two egregious fouls, right under the ref's nose, within a few seconds of each other, when already on a yellow. The stupid charge into the defender's back could conceivably have been a straight red on its own. No defence.

Gibbs-White, ditto. Yes, he got his toe on the ball, but it was an absolutely horrendous challenge, a 'scissor tackle' catching Joao Pedro's standing leg between his own two - and coming from way, way back, sliding through him from behind. Could have been a leg-breaker: no defence.

In the top-of-the-table clash at The Etihad, I thought Michael Oliver's over-hasty restart after calling the captains over for a chat was discourteous and non-ideal - but it's not, as far as I know, against the rules in any way; and it couldn't really be said to have 'caused' the subsequent goal - or provided much excuse for the fact that Walker had just 'fallen asleep' for a moment. And yes, Arsenal did nick 8 or 10 yards on where the free-kick should properly have been taken. But that happens all the time; and when it's inside their own half, it's hardly material to the subsequent attack. City might have had a slightly better case on the second goal; not for 'crowding' of the goalkeeper, which is perfectly kosher, but for Calafiori's little bit of wrestling with Gvardiol on the goal-line, which is not. Then again, Haaland should probably have been at least booked, if not sent off, for his reckless acts of violence at the very end of the match: throwing the ball at a player's head - especially hard, from close range, when they're not looking - is 'violent conduct' every day of the week, and I'm surprised the EPL didn't review the incident again after the match. (Do they not do that any more? Do they trust VAR to catch everything on match day?? Hmmm, that's obviously not working....)  His further bit of tussling soon after was really pushing his luck; and he should be very, very grateful that Oliver was so indulgent towards him.

Forest's penalty was rather soft, but probably fair enough. West Ham's claim against Fofana for holding might also have been a little soft, but was a clearer shout, I think, and should have been given. But for many years now we have grown used to these 'close calls' being missed, or given the wrong way, so we can't kvetch about it too much. I just find it a bit frustrating that we're now supposed to have VAR in place to increase accuracy and fairness with this kind of decision - and they appear to have just given up on this part of the job.

And oh, who was that keeper who clearly handled the ball outside the box - I forget. Vicario of Spurs? That was a BIG mistake, and it could, should have led to a big chance from a free-kick on the edge of the area. But Spurs were so on top in that game, it probably wouldn't have made any difference to the match outcome even if Brentford had scored from it. But it would have made a bit of a difference to the FPL points from that game.

But anyway, no really bad refereeing this week - no egregious howlers, anyway. Long may that continue!

After all of last week's spectacular and freakish goal incidents, this was really quite a quiet and humdrum week. No long-range goals (Welbeck's free-kick, and Mbeumo's crisp near-post volley were pretty special; but compared to all of last week's outside-the-box screamers.... a very quiet week!). Garnacho had one thumper against the woodwork, Fernandes a rather less stirring effort on the follow-up also bouncing off the cross-bar; Gundogan cracked a free-kick attempt (that might actually have beaten Raya??) against the outside of the post; and Palmer also glanced a shot just off the outside of a post (one he probably should have put inside it; but he made amends with another fine goal later on).

There were a few cracking saves - a smart stop by Raya from Gvardiol, a very agile double-save from Andre Onana - but again, nowhere near as many as last week.

The only 'unusual event' in FPL points terms was the astonishingly large number of goals scored by defenders. We don't often see as many as 2 or 3 in one week, but we had 3 in the City v Arsenal match alone this Sunday! And of course, Konsa got in on the act too. But it was perhaps even more surprising that Fabian Schar, usually one of the best and most prolific finishers amongst our current crop of EPL defenders, somehow put a sitter just wide of the post against Fulham....  Funny old game, and all that.

There were few selection surprises this week (Walker starting instead of Lewis caused grief to some of us; Nunez starting ahead of Jota perhaps even more so...), and no real upset results (the big teams had recovered their fluency after the unwelcome disruption of a two-week international break). The ease of Fulham's win over Newcastle, and Southampton's nearly claiming a win from a rather lacklustre Ipswich were the only modest surprises of the weekend. Early substitutions continue to be an FPL annoyance, though: it's obviously going to be a regular hazard with Arne Slot.

The big returners of the week were mostly quite a surprise. Well, Nico Jackson, the leading hero of the week, should not have been a complete surprise, as he has looked in sharp form all season; but 2 excellent breakaway goals and an assist for Palmer was probably more than his 10% of owners could have hoped for. We also find such fringe choices as Hinshelwood, Dibling and Calafiori in the 'Team of the Week'.

Overall, though, I'd rate this the least 'LUCKY' and unexpected week we've had this season - or perhaps for much of last season either. But for the large number of goals from unlikely players, I might have said only a 1 out of 10; but - in the hope that we may yet see a truly 'luck-free' week, I'll give it a 2. I hope this will be a trend for a while!