Dilemmas of the Week - GW4

 

Every week, we need to take a long hard look at our squad, and ask ourselves if we want to make any changes....

If we do see a pressing case for a change here or there, we then need to weigh that against the possible advantage of saving our transfer - 'rolling' it over to use in a future week. This option achieves greater tactical complexity this season with the new rule that allows us to save up as many as 5 Free Transfers to use at one time. If we ever manage to do that, it would in effect be a 'mini Wildcard', enabling us to conduct a major squad overhaul in one fell swoop (particularly useful as there are a handful of 'premium' players who cost so much more than everyone else that you can't conveniently move them in and out of your squad without making multiple other changes as well).

Then, of course, occasionally multiple changes may seem so inescapable that we have to consider whether it's worth spending points on 1 or 2 extra transfers (a tactic which obviously deserves a whole post of its own one day; I'll be getting to that soon, I think). And a lot of people are now considering unleashing their first Wildcard for a major overhaul.... 

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 4?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Amazingly enough, NO: Odegaard and Calafiori seem to be the only casualties from international duty - but not too serious (and Calafiori hasn't been starting at Arsenal anyway). Ooh, later reports on Odegaard sounded a bit worse, though: might be out for a few weeks at least? Given how thin Arsenal's cover is in midfield, that could be really bad news for them.  Ake suffered a serious thigh-muscle injury in the Germany game on Tuesday night; unfortunate for him, but unlikely to have huge impact in FPL, since he's obviously fallen behind Gvardiol in the pecking-order at 'left-back' for Pep, and has almost always been well behind Dias, Akanji, and Stones (and Gvardiol) in the running for starts as a central defender.

The injuries with Palmer and Watkins (and Elliott and Wharton in the under-21s) and a few others sound like they're the kind of phantom problem that clubs conjure up to get their boys out of pointless internationals; if there was any substance to these problems, it was probably only minor, and should have been shaken off with two weeks' rest. (Again, later reports revealed Elliott had a more serious problem - fractured metatarsal? - likely to keep him out for several weeks. Not that he was getting starts anyway, so probably not that relevant to FPL managers.)

Areola, of course, went off at half-time in the City game the other week, having apparently jarred his back on landing in pulling off that miracle save from DeBruyne; but there seems to be no further problem with him now, so he will presumably reclaim his starting spot at once (a blow for 15% of FPL managers who thought their random non-playing back-up keeper choice of Fabianski might suddenly be about to start producing points for them, and maybe even get a bump-up in price as a result).

Milner, Veltman, and Wieffer are minor doubts at Brighton - but presumably nobody would have picked any of them anyway??

I had thought Ait-Nouri was the only current injury doubt (again, seemingly not major) who might be quite high-owned; but it seems only about 2.5% of managers held him.

And Hojlund might be close to a return at United - what might that mean for Zirkzee, or Rashford? (And does anyone really care?? United are so woeful at the moment, surely even their most diehard fans aren't selecting any of their players for FPL?!)

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Calafiori, mysteriously overlooked by Arteta; Martinelli, also suddenly out of favour with the boss somehow - and facing increased competition for a start from Trossard and Sterling.

Rice, of course, is suspended for this week, after his unlucky sending-off. You wouldn't want to replace him for a one-match absence, though. Of greater importance is the likely shake-up in the team to adapt to this: I would guess that Havertz will drop back into midfield, while Trossard or Sterling start in the middle of the attack. Though I suppose it is also possible that Jorginho could replace Rice, allowing Havertz to remain up-front. (But that, alas, is how thin the Arsenal squad is now; they really don't have much cover anywhere...)

Savinho's omission against West Ham was allegedly down to a minor knee problem only, and he's said to be in contention again for this weekend. But I stand by my initial view that he is probably somewhat below Grealish and Doku in the pecking-order, and will be used in rotation with them.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

This is not in itself a strong reason for dropping anyone, but for the most part it happens with players whose inclusion was a dubious choice in the first place: players who are looking like they might drop in price should be offloaded, if you can afford to use a transfer on that - unless you are really convinced that they will bring value to your squad (if you're right, their price will bounce back eventually!).

This tends to happen with players who are 'over-owned' at the start of the season, players around whom exaggerated expectations developed, and who produced a kind of mass hysteria among the 'sheep' of the FPL community - those whose first instinct is to go with what 'everybody else' seems to be doing. When those exaggerated expectations are disappointed, there can be an equally sudden - and irrational - mass movement away from a player again, sometimes resulting in a steep drop in price.

Curiously, Gvardiol, Porro, and Saliba seem to be most at risk of such a price-drop at the moment; they haven't been playing at all badly, but.... their owners wanted more from them, unreasonably more! (I never like to say 'I told you so...', but on this occasion, I did.)

Usually, strikers are much more vulnerable to these sudden shifts in ownership, as FPL managers can be very impatient with any lull in goal-scoring (despite the fact that even the great Erling blanks at least 1 game in 3; and 2 games in 3 is more typical for regular mortals...): Solanke, Watkins, and even Isak (who scored last time out!) are suffering such an unreasonable sell-off at the moment; also Jota, Saka, and Palmer (which just defies belief - WTF???). I'm surprised not to find Son higher up that 'most sold' list!!

And I think I'm not alone in feeling that Manchester United are such a mess at the moment, that you should really consider getting rid of any of their players you own.... until they turn a corner (which, I think, won't be until after Ten Hag is replaced... which is unlikely to be until the New Year).

Are there any new transfers or loans who are immediately tempting?

I can't see anyone getting that excited about Sterling going to Arsenal: we're rarely going to see him before the 70th minute I would imagine. Sancho's move to Chelsea is much more intriguing (he knows Palmer from his youth team days with City, so there's reason to hope that they could swiftly strike up a productive rapport - if he gets regular starts): one to watch, rather than one to pile in for speculatively now, I would say.

Ugarte, while he could help to revitalize United's fortunes as a ball-winning midfielder whose quick recovery tackles could reduce their vulnerability to counter-attacks (he's about as terrible as Casemiro at playing through the press, though, so... I wouldn't get too optimistic about his transformative powers), is not really the type of player anyone wants for FPL: quite good bonus point potential, perhaps, but extremely unlikely to provide any sort of attacking returns.

The most interesting late transfer action was among the goalkeepers, with Arrizabalaga moving to Bournemouth, Johnstone to Wolves, and Ramsdale to Southampton - and that is the order I would consider them in. Keepers can get very useful points from saves alone, even if they hardly ever manage a clean sheet; but ideally, you want a bit of a balance between the two: a fairly decent defence who will pick up 6-8 clean sheets over the season, but also expose their keeper often enough to allow him to rack up plenty of saves. Wolves are all over the place at the moment, but are a basically decent side with a shrewd manager - so I expect them to recover more defensive solidity soon. Southampton, even with a keeper upgrade, are bound straight back to the Championship - and might well not keep a single clean sheet all season. Bournemouth are good enough to challenge for the top third, and have a modestly robust defence. I'm still fairly happy with my original keeper choices - but if I were going to make a change, I'd go for Kepa (how can you resist the nominative determinism?); although I'd wait a while to see how he beds in at his new club - and they do have a pretty rocky run of fixtures until GW11.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

I haven't found time yet to watch much of the internationals. But they don't really count for that much, as a rule, since playing in different tactical systems alongside different teammates will mean that there's little comparability between club and country performances. A good haul - or one particularly good goal - from a striker can be a valuable boost to confidence, especially if they've been struggling a bit for goals in their domestic football. But other than that, international games are of little relevance.

In the last Gameweek, only Diaz and Mbeumo really stood out as players in very impressive form, who would be worth considering (if you hadn't had them from the start of the season!). But there are lots of other tempting picks from Liverpool (Salah is looking essential; Jota has also been in good form; and they're keeping things so tight defensively that many people are coveting at least one of their defenders... so, it's perhaps a bit tricky to shoehorn Lucho in); and it's not an opportune time to bring Mbeumo in, when Brentford are now facing two daunting away fixtures. Lallana caught my eye too; but he's unlikely to achieve much with Southampton.

The sheep seem to be getting very excited about Minteh, and Joao Pedro, and Mitoma, and Welbeck, and Dunk... that's enough reason to steer clear of any of them. That, and the fixtures Brighton face from GW6 through GW11.

Much sheep love also for Semenyo, Mazraoui, and Amadou Onana - only the first of those would I give any thought to.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Sheep Picks (3)

 

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has seen his ownership more than double, rocketing above 400,000, since his goal against Bournemouth. Now, he did look quite sharp all around in that game. And Everton, inspired by Dwight McNeil in a more central creative role, are looking much more dangerous going forward this year. But... DC-L has had an appalling injury record over the last three years. And he's completely lost his way as a goalscorer, massively under-performing his xG figures. He really seemed to benefit from the mentorship of Duncan Ferguson, and since the big Scot left the club in 2022, his form and confidence have tanked. While it is occasionally possible to form a reliable long-term judgement about someone from one game (with Cole Palmer last season, it took me just a few minutes!), that's not the general rule; you really need to see evidence of a consistent shift in form emerging over two or three games; and I doubt if we'll get that from Dominic.

Even if we do, it would be crazy to take a risk on a player with such a reputation for being injury-prone, under-performing for long periods, and suffering crashes in confidence and 'mental health' problems. Particularly when there are so many other promising forward options this year costing 6.0 million or less. Piling in for Calvert-Lewin on the basis of one goal - or even two or three or four - is absolutely NUTS.

Emptiness

 

An international break so early in the season?? It doesn't seem right, does it?

Just as we were starting to get back into the swing of the FPL season, all the comforting little weekly rituals of checking for last-minute team news and so on... suddenly snatched away from us! It is easy to feel bereft, resentful.

But we should EMBRACE THE VOID.  Having a bit of time off to clear our minds, to attend to other things a while... should be good for our mental health generally, and for our selection perspicacity when we return to the fray in another week. Enjoy the silence....

A little bit of Zen (6)

"Am I eccentric - or am I just wearing a funny hat?"

Tom Waits

Sheep Picks (2)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

This week's nomination, of course, is Chelsea's Noni Madueke.

Yes, he's getting a start on the right side of the attack - which wasn't necessarily expected. And he's played very well in these opening two games. And he just scored a stunning hattrick! That, naturally, is the reason why The Sheep are getting so over-excited about him. Sorry to be the one to tell you this, but he's NOT going to get a hattrick every week. Heck, he's not even going to score every week. He might not even score every month...

It should be noted that this hattrick was against Wolves, who currently have one of the ricketiest defences in the League. And that they were all set up for him particularly sweetly by Cole Palmer (who was obviously the real 'Man of the Match', whatever FPL's bizarre 'Bonus Points System' pretends!). Not even Palmer plays that well every game; and most of the time, he'll be looking to set up Jackson rather than one of the wingers. So, this was almost certainly a one-off; there's no reason to suppose that Madueke is particularly likely to bag another double-digit haul all season. And that's if he even keeps his start - which, with Neto and Sancho competing for the place, is very much in doubt. (Whether Maresca will invariably start with two wide attackers is also open to question. For some games, he could well want a narrower front line. And if he feels like introducing Nkunku in a more central No. 10 slot, Palmer would be forced out wider on the right, replacing Madueke.)

Moreover, Madueke is priced at 6.5 million. While that's not expensive, it's also not cheap. There are this year a bunch of starters at 5.5 million who look even more promising.

Madueke is a very good player, and has the potential to be one of the season's surprise breakthrough stars. But that one hattrick was not enough to convince any sensible observer that this breakthrough is already starting to happen. There are still too many doubts about Madueke's hold on the starting place, or his likely regular productiveness even if he does become an automatic first choice, to justify an ownership of 100,000 - let alone over 1 million (most of those having piled in for him in the last week!).

Oops - he did it AGAIN!

 

I joked last week that we might already have seen 'peak Haaland' for this season - at least in terms of his points-per-game average.  And then the bugger goes and gets another hattrick!!

Now, it would be absolutely astonishing if he managed to register THREE hattricks in successive weeks. (I don't think that's ever been done in the Premier League? And probably not in top flight football anywhere in the world, ever in history? But dammit, he is a record-smashing machine... Maybe it could happen??)  And, statistically, it does seem rather improbable that he'll even pick up a brace again for another month or so now....

But he is in exceptional form: probably the sharpest and most confident we've ever seen him. And that is utterly terrifying!

And it is prompting many people to revisit The Big Question I considered before the start of the season, whether a with-Haaland or without-Haaland squad was likely to be the best option for FPL this year.

I think that question is more open than we might have expected - an early switch of strategy more tempting - not just because of Haaland's exceptional start to the season, but because of the impressiveness of our options at the lower end of the price scale. No, we don't have any 4.0 starting keepers (like Areola last year) or unexpectedly starting and oustandingly good cheap defenders (like Gusto and Van Hecke); and we don't have a 'Player of the Season' available for only 5.0 (Palmer was a once-in-a-decade-or-two FPL miracle!!). But we do suddenly have Arrizabalaga, Johnstone, Verbruggen, and Ramsdale added to the pool of very decent keeper options at only 4.5 (I'd probably stick with Areola and Henderson as the strongest two at the moment; but Hermansen, Sels, and Muric could also emerge as tempting, more left-field picks); there's even a chance that 4.0 Fabianski might get a few starts, after Areola apparently hurt himself with a bad landing in the City game this weekend. Up front, we've got Wood, Wissa, Welbeck, Joao Pedro, Delap, Vardy, Calvert-Lewin, Duran and Strand-Larsen among the leading scorers so far - all priced between 5.0 and 6.0 million. And - outside of the inevitable Liverpool and Arsenal (and the slightly less inevitable Spurs!) back lines - all the top 15 highest-scoring defenders started the season at only 4.5 million. In particular, Rico Lewis getting a regular start at City (for now) is a huge bonus. And, to fill out the last couple of seats on the bench, there are even some OK defenders starting who cost only 4.0 million: Nedeljković, Faes, Harwood-Bellis.

Above all, there are some very strong-looking cheaper midfield options; and that is the area of the field where most of your points are usually produced. A With-Haaland squad would not be viable, I don't think, unless we could assemble a full roster of 5 strong attacking midfielders with the remains of our budget. But we have the likes of Smith Rowe, Semenyo, Iwobi, Rogers, Murphy, Wharton, Hudson-Odoi, Adingra, Minteh, Diallo, Kluivert, Tavernier, Sinisterra all looking like more-than-decent prospects to take up the last one or two spots in midfield.

It is looking perfectly possible to assemble a Haaland-Salah-Palmer squad that includes at least one other premium player, and doesn't go ridiculously light in any area of the pitch (NO non-playing bench!!). You only get into trouble, I think, if you rashly opt for Raya or Alisson in goal, and/or one or two of the more premium defenders. With Arsenal and Liverpool looking so solid, it is very likely that players from their defences will substantially out-perform almost all others, but.... will they do so by enough of a margin to justify the huge extra outlay?? That remains doubtful: the spread of points across the best keepers is usually fairly small; the spread across defenders - except for a few outliers sometimes - not much greater. Extra money spent almost always yields more points in midfield.

I can see why so many people are getting tempted to go for an early use of the Wildcard this week (I will probably have more to say on that before long): many of those who initially opted to go without Haaland - perhaps the majority - have had a change of heart. (It's probably safe to assume that almost no-one is moving the other way, and dropping him!)  I hope that's not just short-term reactionism, getting spooked by his two hattricks (you've already missed those: let it go....).  If you're going to make this momentous switch (as I think I will myself), it needs to be because you've carefully considered the overall budget constraints and the available player pool. At the start of the season, we didn't know how many of these cheaper options would be starting, or how good their prospects might be; now that is becoming more apparent, we have a better picture of what a strong With-Haaland squad could be.

Luck-o-Meter (3)

 

I am really trying to persuade myself that the overall standard of refereeing is getting better, little by little, every week.

And yet... still it seems that almost every week we're going to see at least half a dozen dubious - or just outright daft, bad, outrageous - decisions: disallowed goals, penalties and sendings-off given and not given... which can completely flip the course of matches.

And that is an absolutely staggering number: it probably means that poor refereeing is, in most weeks, having the largest single impact on FPL points outcomes (as well as, you know, possibly distorting the Premier League title race) - far more than quirks of team selection, unexpected swings in team form, or outstanding pieces of individual brilliance. This should not be happening. Sigh.

This week, the bizarre sending-off of Declan Rice was probably the most egregious. (Referees do have some discretion as to how severely they punish a 'kicking the ball away' kind of offence, particularly when it would be a second yellow. And you'd think that kind of leniency was mandatory here, since Rice barely moved the ball at all, and it might well have been accidental, or at least unthinking.)  This appalling error of judgement was further compounded by the fact that Veltman, who'd taken a petulant swish at Rice in the same incident, clearly had no excuse for being left on the field - trying to kick an opponent must always be a straight red (even though the contact here was fairly minimal; you can't have any leniency with a deliberate kick). And yet again, we heard nothing from VAR on this?? What is going on with that?

Just to rub salt into Arsenal's sense of grievance, Joao Pedro had been let off a much more serious 'kicking the ball away' offence earlier in the game. Even omitted yellow cards can have a major impact on game outcomes, especially this early on: Pedro would have been at risk of expulsion himself for most of the game, and his contribution would likely have been more muted as a result (he would probably have been withdrawn much earlier, and wouldn't have been around to score the equaliser). 

Saka probably should have had a penalty early in the game as well, when hauled to the ground by his shirt on the edge of the box (we can see the argument that the offence 'started' outside the box, but it certainly continued long after that, and its decisive element - for me - clearly happened when Saka was at least directly above, if not well inside the line of the side of the box). And they definitely should have had one for the Dunk handball - which should be a 'strict liability' offence when you stop a goal-bound shot: arguments about presumed intentionality have no relevance (other than to whether the defending player deserves a card for the offence), nor do questions about the position of the arm (unless it's so close to the body that you really can't see if it hit the body as well, or in front of the body, such that the body would also have blocked the shot - neither the case here), or whether he had any time to get out of the way; if you stop a goal with your arm, even by accident (and I'm pretty sure that was at least half-deliberate...), it's a penalty. Arsenal should have won that game far more comfortably, and probably kept a clean sheet as well - a HUGE turnaround for FPL and EPL. (I'm usually annoyed by Arteta's whingeing - but he's absolutely got a point this time.)

It is also unfathomable that Palace's Will Hughes didn't receive a second yellow for blatantly holding back Palmer on a surging run through the middle. Again, that decision probably robbed Chelsea of a win.

Leicester, too, absolutely should have had a penalty, when Tielemans flattened Vardy from behind on the edge of the box late on. He got something of the ball, yes; but that is never an absolute defence - he got all of the man.

Wolves might also consider themselves a bit unlucky that they didn't nick the win with a late penalty after Wood had clumsily tangled with Dawson in the Forest penalty area. That one was much more of a 50/50 (and they wouldn't have deserved the win) - but at least it was a decent shout.

Haaland owners must again consider themselves slightly lucky. A hattrick in successive weeks is a very rare feat, even for such a remarkable player as him; and really, Ipswich and West Ham do not appear the most likely victims for such a drubbing. At least his haul this week was entirely deserved, all three brilliant finishes - whereas last week he'd needed a very soft penalty and a horrible goal-keeping error to gift him two of the three.

Another element of the 'luck' equation, though, has to be missed chances; and it should be noted that Haaland actually fluffed his easiest chance in this game; while Mo Salah failed to convert two of his (though not quite such gimmes as Haaland's). DeBruyne, Porro, Isak, and Palmer also battered the woodwork. So many little moments in a game where things might go one way or the other.

And overall, it was a week where outstanding goalkeeping performances prevailed over striking ones - with a remarkable 18 'saves' points being racked up. There were some particularly good stops from Ederson, Alisson, Pope, and a whole string of them from Dean Henderson; but I think the pick of the crop was probably Areola's save from DeBruyne's fierce near-post drive. (Yes, he might have been slightly at fault for inviting DeBruyne's hastily improvised attempt by leaving such a large gap on that side of his goal, but he came flying across to his near post and somehow clawed the ball away from behind him...  It was one of those saves that didn't seem possible.)

However, a keeper being withdrawn at half-time is a very rare occurrence - that was a hard blow for Areola's owners, but an unanticipated windfall for Fabianksi's (especially if the injury proves to be significant, and the Pole now gets promoted for a run of games, rather than just a rather unenviable 45 minutes against Erling Haaland....).

At lleast, the 'usual suspects' all came through pretty well this week: in the 'Team of the Week', probably only Sugawara, Sinisterra, and Calvert-Lewin are very low-owned.

Overall then, I think a LUCK rating for this week would have been fairly high even without any more refereeing cock-ups. But with four contentious penalty decisions and three sending-off incidents, Gameweek 3 was pretty nearly as bad as the phenomenally LUCKY Gameweek 1 - another 9 out of 10, I think.

Let us hope that things settle down after the international break.

GW3 - What did we learn?

Arsenal, while looking quietly dangerous, are still nowhere near as formidable as they were at their strongest, in the third quarter of last season. OK, they were very unlucky to be reduced to 10 men (yet another doubly terrible refereeing decision, with Veltman deserving a red card and not getting one, while Rice was unjustly sent off), and would probably have beaten Brighton comfortably but for that; and I don't see how they didn't get a penalty for Dunk's handball (questions of the position of the arm and presumed 'intentionality' should be irrelevant when you block a goal-bound shot!). But it really wasn't a terribly convincing performance from the Gunners. 

And there are worrying signs at The Emirates, I think: Arteta appearing not to rate his expensive new signing Calafiori (unless it's just a fitness issue; but it had looked like he should sail straight into a regular start at left-back, and that hasn't happened for some reason....), and to have lost confidence in Martinelli. It's also not good that most of their summer transfer initiatives have failed, the only new arrivals being Merino (who's immediately picked up a fairly serious injury in training) and Sterling (who hasn't played much first-team football in the last two years, and doesn't seem like a type of player they urgently need); while they've let go four of their best young back-up players - so, the squad, at the moment, is even thinner than it was last year. I wonder if Sterling's main role will be to come off the bench fairly regularly for 10 or 20 minutes, not so much as an 'impact sub', but just to save Saka's legs (reduced minutes for him might lessen his FPL appeal slightly...). Next week, however, I can see he might possibly start as a 'false 9', to allow Havertz to slot back into midfield to replace the suspended Rice.

Getting a draw away at Arsenal continued Brighton's impressive start under Hurzeler, but... I think they've got some serious structural problems in central midfield, having lost Caicedo, Macallister, Gross, and Gilmour in quick succession (and now Milner, to injury); I don't think Baleba can hold things together on his own. The FPL sheep are getting over-excited about Minteh (who hasn't done much yet; and will surely share minutes with Adingra and Gruda), Welbeck (who has started superbly, but is bound to pick up an injury again soon), and Joao Pedro (who's playing well, but doesn't look likely to produce that many goals). The only one of their players I might fancy is just-back-from-injury Verbruggen in goal - but not until after their horrific run of fixtures from GW6 to GW12 is behind them.

Everton were quite mystifying this weekend: they've suddenly remembered how to score goals, but forgotten how to defend! Dominic Calvert-Lewin looked very sharp and confident; if he's really rediscovered his scoring boots after two or three years in the doldrums, that could be transformative for the team's prospects this year. But they need to start defending much better; and the problem there at the moment really seems to be in midfield rather than defence. Their late collapse against Bournemouth this weekend seemed to be largely the result of fatigue, so perhaps there are some fitness issues too, players' stamina not yet back to 100% after the summer break? But everyone else's in the league is, so that would suggest some deficiencies in the club's training regime.

Bournemouth were.... inexplicably bad for most of the game at Goodison, just not 'at the races' at all. And yet you have to admire their fighting spirit in engineering that last-gasp recovery. And they have a lot of talented attacking players - Semenyo, Ouattara, Kluivert, Tavernier, Sinisterra - which suggests they might not find life too difficult without Solanke. And Kepa is one of the most interesting last-minute transfer deals: I fancy him to give quite a boost to Bournemouth's prospects now... and perhaps to become one of the most productive 4.5-million-pound keepers.

Brentford, apart from the form of Bryan Mbeumo, are not giving much grounds for optimism yet about their season; a comfortable win against Southampton is nothing to write home about. And I'd probably hang fire even on considering the acquisition of Mbeumo, given that they must be favourites to take a couple of drubbings in their next two matches, away to City and Spurs. Heck, even their following home games against West Ham and Wolves might not be easy for them. They look, at the moment, as if they'll struggle to get out of the bottom third.

Southampton's only bright spot, really, is the inventivneness of Adam Lallana. It's a pity they don't seem to have anyone around him who can capitalise on this. They are, unfortunately, already looking like this year's Sheffield United, a team so hopelessly out of their depth that you can safely bet your house now on them going back down at the end of the season.

Leicester, while not as abject as any of last season's promoted sides, are not yet showing signs of having enough creativity to trouble an opponent. The goalkeeper, Hermansen, is their only player who impresses me as a possible FPL prospect. However, they were robbed of a penalty near the end when Tielemans flattened Vardy from behind (if doesn't matter if you 'get a piece of the ball' if you've completely swept an opponent's legs away to achieve that...).

Villa, then, were a little lucky to prevail in that game. They're still not firing on all cylinders - although the form of Rogers, Duran, and Digne is encouraging. FPL managers should not get over-excited about Onana's points prospects: he's a midfielder who scores a goal occasionally, rather than a goalscoring midfielder - bagging 2 goals in 3 games doesn't mean that he'll be bag another 2 this month,... or over the remainder of the season..... Equally, they shouldn't get too disheartened about Watkins: he is playing well, but the team just aren't creating many clearcut chances for him at the moment. But there's little doubt he'll start racking up the goals and assists soon. (I'm sure his early withdrawal, on the hour, was precautionary, after he'd suffered a series of heavy knocks in the game, rather than 'tactical', and shouldn't raise any doubts about his minutes prospects - much less his start - in upcoming games.)

Kieran McKenna - unsurprisingly, I suppose - stuck by his keeper, Muric, despite his absolute horror-show against City last week. I hope that show of confidence will pay off, with the keeper settling down to a solid season (apparently he had a very good season for Burnley in the Championship two years ago). The rest of the Ipswich side is looking, as I'd expected, quite impressive - hard-working and well-organised, much the most likely of the promoted sides to have a chance of going up. And Liam Delap is becoming a tempting 3rd forward pick.

Fulham are still not quite clicking. I think they have enough strength and balance in their squad to be fairly comfortably mid-table, but their season's looking like it might be a bit up-and-down. The young Brazilian striker Muniz hasn't found his goal-touch yet - but I remain hopeful that he soon might. Alas, his large number of FPL owners are probably going to grow impatient with another blank from him and initiate a big sell-off. The other big 'sheep' move here is likely to be a big pile-on for Traore, as people are easily convinced that he has now become a reliable goal-machine. (He has never in his career been a 'reliable' anything; and I really can't see him even being a regular starter.) Smith Rowe, and the full-backs Robinson and Tete, continue to look like their best FPL prospects.

Wolves are still all over the place in defence: Kilman is a huge loss for them. But I trust that Gary O'Neill can sort things out there... eventually. Sam Johnstone is looking an intriguing goalkeeper prospect now that he's got a regular starting place again. He's not likely to keep many clean sheets at Wolves as they are at the moment, but a leaky defence provides the opportunity for lots of 'saves' points - and he produced a couple of really outstanding ones on Saturday.

Forest, apart from the hot goalscoring form of Chris Wood, are not giving much reason for optimism. Even against a very ragged Wolves, they weren't able to generate many chances; and they were actually lucky to get a point, when Wood, defending like a forward, brought Dawson crashing down in the box near the end; it might have been an accidental tangling of limbs, but it looked clumsy.... and we've seen them given so often before.

Haaland has certainly started this season in red-hot form: another hattrick, even after missing a sitter early on!  DeBruyne and Lewis and, of course, Bernardo Silva are also looking very sharp. And City really might have scored a lot more, with DeBruyne bringing one of the saves of the season out of Areola with a fierce drive at the near post, and later crashing one against the woodwork; Grealish too had a couple of good chances, one blocked by a defender, and one fizzed just beyond the far top corner of the goal. However, without Rodri, City do lack some defensive solidity; the pace of Kudus and Bowen often exposed them on the counter-attack And people who went in for Savinho suffered immediate regret: surprise, surprise - the favoured running-order for City wingers at the moment is Grealish, Doku, Savinho! They'll probably all get decent minutes when fit, but it will always be a guessing-game as to which of them will start in any given week; and Savinho will probably get on the pitch slightly less often than the other two.

West Ham are still a bit of an enigma: a definitive new style of play under Lopategui has not yet emerged. While the pace and guile of Kudus gives them a lot of attacking threat, their midfield doesn't seem to have any shape, and they were very sloppy in possession. They're looking like they might be one of those entertaining teams who both score and concede loads - but that won't get them a very high league finish. And they really need to start making use of Fullkrug....  

Areola's injury didn't look too bad; so, I suppose we have to keep our fingers crossed until the end of the international break. If he's out for a while, it would be a very useful windfall for the significant handful of managers who'd gone for Fabianski as a cheap, non-playing back-up keeper (a fair enough pick, since he is much the best of the 4.0 options; perhaps the only back-up keeper in the EPL - well, aside from the more expensive Kelleher and Ortega - who's a worthy starter, and perhaps actually stands a chance of being promoted on form, rather than just injury to the No. 1).

Eze owners are no doubt relieved that he's finally got off the mark. But they shouldn't have been worried: he's been playing well all season, and was desperately unlucky not to have scored in each of the first two games. And there are signs that Palace are finding some confidence and steadiness in possession again - though I still worry if they can adapt to the loss of Andersen. At least Henderson is in good form, producing outstanding saves from Palmer, Madueke, and Jackson to secure a point they probably didn't quite deserve.

I really don't know how Sanchez is still starting in goal. I suppose Maresca must see something in him that I don't. I have been hoping that Jorgensen would be promoted to the first team at any moment - which, with Chelsea's improving form, and soft early run of fixtures, would make him a very tempting keeper option. I suppose, if Sanchez really is nailed for now, he becomes a tempting option for the same reasons. Palmer, of course, is Palmer; he is, I think, the most dependable of all the premium-priced players, and will almost certainly be the best of them in points-per-pound return, even if he can't quite outdo Salah and Haaland for total points.

Newcastle's makeshift defence is still looking very vulnerable, but Spurs are not yet firing properly: lots of possession and pressure didn't really lead to many chances on Sunday - while they, predictably, got cut open far too easily by a quick counter-attack. Romero, I thought, looked alarmingly unconcerned, like he just couldn't be bothered to try to sprint back in situations like that. Maybe he was carrying some kind of an injury, or maybe was just getting badly fatigued late in the game - but it did look more like an attitude problem to me. Solanke still missing, Son and Maddison failing to impose themselves on the game, and Vicario still laughably intimidatable at set pieces - lots of alarm bells for Spurs. Dragusin was probably their best player, and he's not a regular starter. Many more positive signs for Newcastle, with Barnes, Joelinton and Murphy looking very sharp, as well as the always dangerous Isak and Gordon; but they do have a rather challenging run of fixtures coming up.

I am slowly warming to Gravenberch in the Liverpool engine room: he's not the combative Keane/Vieira type I prefer to see in that role, but he's doing a job for them. And Luis Diaz is confirming my view that, when fit, he's always been one of Liverpool's most consistent and dangerous players, as deservedly nailed-on for the left-wing start as Salah is for the right. Some FPL managers are getting so delirious about Liverpool's attacking form, though, that they are taking the 'trident' in its entirety Salah, Diaz, and Jota. That's just NUTS, because it doesn't spread risk (you're screwed if Liverpool suffer a piece of bad luck like an early wonder-goal against them, or a soft penalty award, or a sending-off, and you suddenly have three key players with limited points), and your total return is capped (they are sharing Liverpool's total attacking haul each week; and while that might often be a very big haul, it often won't be, and there is certainly a maximum limit to which it can approach even in its very best weeks: if one of these chaps gets a hattrick, one or both of the others will probably return few points that week; you really want to try to identify a sole primary goal-threat in midfield from as many teams as you can, and get the best 5 of those that you can afford; that should give you more points than taking 3 attacking midfielders from the same side - however good that side is). Also, you know, Liverpool currently have the best defensive record in the league, so you might want to at least leave yourself the option of getting one of their defenders...

Manchester United? The most interesting thing about them at the moment is the betting on when Ten Hag's going to be sacked....  I suppose at least Rashford is finally starting to show some signs of returning form; not much, but some. And I had thought Onana could be a tempting prospect in goal this season; but the way they're playing at the moment, I wouldn't touch any of their players with a bargepole.

A little bit of Zen (5)

"I tell you, we are here on Earth to fart around, and don't let anybody tell you different."

Kurt Vonnegut

Dilemmas of the Week - GW3

Every week, we need to take a long hard look at our squad, and ask ourselves if we want to make any changes....

If we do see a pressing case for a change here or there, we then need to weigh that against the possible advantage of saving our transfer - 'rolling' it over to use in a future week. This option achieves greater tactical complexity this season with the new rule that allows us to save up as many as 5 Free Transfers to use at one time. If we ever manage to do that, it would in effect be a 'mini Wildcard', enabling us to conduct a major squad overhaul in one fell swoop (particularly useful as there are a handful of 'premium' players who cost so much more than everyone else that you can't conveniently move them in and out of your squad without making multiple other changes as well).

Then, of course, occasionally multiple changes may seem so inescapable that we have to consider whether it's worth spending points on 1 or 2 extra transfers (a tactic which obviously deserves a whole post of its own one day).

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 3?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Late news of the Solanke injury caught a lot of people out last week; and although described as only a minor 'knock', it seems he's still doubtful for this week. But those who rushed to buy him on news of his move to Spurs just have to suck that up - you can't be using transfers to move people out for a short-term injury. This is why you need a bench.

Matty Cash appeared to have picked up a hamstring problem last weekend; but there doesn't seem to be any word yet on whether it's serious. If it does emerge that he's expected to miss at least a month, Kosta Nedeljković is his likeliest replacement - and suddenly becomes the most attractive 4.0 option in the game. He could prove to be a useful 'investment pick' to boost squad value but I'd say that's only worth doing if he's likely to get a run of at least 5 or 6 starts - so, we need to wait on a prognosis for Cash.

Foden was just out with a virus, right? So, we'd expect him to be back straight away this week. But you always worry that this is just a cover story, that a last-minute drop-out like that is really caused by some other issue.. maybe a row with Pep?  I think he's a big risk this season anyway at his higher price-point: his returns last year were freakishly good, mainly the result of him taking on primary creative responsibilities for most of the season while DeBruyne was out injured; this year he's likely to be taking a more secondary role again, and might well suffer more rotation.

Caicedo and Lavia at Chelsea both seemed to have quite serious knocks; but no-one's likely to have players like that in an FPL squad anyway. And they are hardy lads; I suspect they'll be fine for this week.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Lewis Hall getting dropped by Eddie Howe was a bit of a blow for some; he had seemed the likeliest regular addition to the Newcastle defence.

Dewsbury-Hall also seems to be purely on back-up duty at Chelsea at the moment, which is a little bit of a surprise and disappointment - after he had such an outstanding season at Leicester last year, and Maresca had seemed so eager to be reunited with him. Maybe there's some kind of fitness issue with him, and we'll see him introduced into the first team next month...?

Presumably nobody fancied Sancho to get a chance under Ten Hag; but the failure to start Zirkzee and De Ligt last week was a bit puzzling. I imagine they'll be eased into the starting eleven over the next few weeks - but if they're not, something is very, very wrong at Old Trafford.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

A lot of people on the forums are talking about dropping Watkins and/or Isak - but that's 'reactive' nonsense. Two blank weeks for a forward is nothing. They remain by far the best two picks after Haaland, and will produce points soon. 

Ditto Eze: people have inflated expectations of him, and get impatient when he doesn't produce a big points haul every week. He's actually been playing really well, and was desperately unlucky not to have picked up at least one goal in each of the opening two games, so I don't see any reason to use up a valuable transfer in offloading him. 

However, Henderson and the Palace defence might be risky picks for a while, as the side seems badly unsettled and weakened by the loss of Andersen... and the threatened further loss of Guehi.

Manchester United look so ragged at the moment, I wouldn't take a chance on any of their players; Fernandes and Mazraoui seem to be the two most popular picks from there at the moment - worth considering moving them out, I would say.

And anyone from the Chelsea, Wolves, Brentford or Everton defences looks a risky pick at the moment. Sanchez looks pretty dreadful in the Chelsea goal, and is surely a candidate for being replaced by Maresca soon. Sa and Flekken have also looked a bit shakey - and have a horrible run of fixtures coming up. And Pickford clearly was never going to repeat his freakish clean-sheet record of last season; but it's currently looking like Everton might take a battering most weeks, and leave him sometimes in negative points territory - so, if you went for him, definitely one to offload. And Muric might be in jeopardy at Ipswich, after one of the worst Premier League goalkeeping performances since the infamous David James PlayStation incident...

Do any new transfers or returns from injury demand immediate consideration?

Some people are getting quite excited about Gundogan's return to City - especially with Rodri still on the injury list.  But he's turning 34 soon (and Barcelona apparently don't want him any more....?), so is likely to get heavily managed minutes. And, when he does play, it's more likely to be in a deep holding role, rather than as a progressive 8 or a false 9 - the kind of roles where he occasionally enjoyed hot scoring streaks for them in the past.

With luck, we might see a slew of late transfers confirmed in the next few days - which could make life interesting after the international break. But obviously no new arrivals now will be involved in this weekend's matches.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Luis Diaz produced an eye-catching display against Brentford; but Liverpool still aren't playing that well as a team, and you don't want to be trebling up on any club in one position... however, if you don't already have Salah and Jota, Diaz would be a tempting representative of the Liverpool attack, especially with their kind run of fixtures.

Everyone should have had Palmer from the start of the season, but if you didn't....  Madueke, though? It's probably a fairly safe bet that he won't get another hattrick this season. And indeed, with Chelsea's bloated squad, it's uncertain how regular his starts will be, however well he plays: Neto and Nkunku and Felix and Mudryk (and Palmer!) are all competing with him for gametime.

Savinho at City is also causing a lot of excitement - mainly because Pep has unusually singled him out as being distinguished for being strong enough to start multiple games in quick succession, leading folks to believe that he might be safer than most from the threat of 'Pep Roulette': ha, good luck with that! Apart from the inevitability of tactical or stamina rotations for him occasionally, his over-eager clumsiness in challenges is a worry to me: he's miraculously got away with penalty fouls in each of the opening two games, and might have compromised City's second goal this week by tangling awkwardly with the keeper on the edge of the box; if he carries on like this, he's going to give away penalties and pick up yellow cards. Rico Lewis, though - I think the time may have arrived for him.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Sheep Picks (1)

 

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

And so, I thought I'd create an occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

It seems natural to kick off with Everton defender Michael Keane, whose pre-season ownership was nearly 200,000 - a surprising amount for such a nothing player - and swelled by a further 25,000 after Gameweek 1.

Now, Keane is a decent defender, with a side that kept a lot of clean sheets last year. However, Everton still look very much like a lower-end-of-the-table side, and last season's defensive performance might have been a bit of a freak event which they'll probably struggle to recreate this year. And he's a central defender, and they almost never offer such good returns as attacking full-backs, so you want to be wary of ever picking one... unless they pick up more bonus points than average because they get on the ball a lot and step up into central midfield to spray progressive passes around, or they're monsters in the air who pick up an above-average number of goals or assists by winning headers from corners and free-kicks, or they keep a large number of clean sheets. Keane is not any of those things.

Well, his owners will object, he's just a bench-warmer, because he only costs 4.0 million. Yes, but even from a bench-warmer, you want to be confident that they will be regular starters for the whole season, and they offer you a signifcant chance, at least occasionally, of more than just appearance points (I think you ought to aim for being able to pick up at least 3.5-4 points per game on average from your bench players, because you will need to draw on them from time to time; quite often, indeed, you'll need to have them auto-subbed in because of an unexpected dropout among your first eleven).

The problem with Keane is that his form and favour at Everton have fallen off a cliff since 2022. Over the last two seasons, despite numerous injury crises at the club in defence, he's barely scraped together 20 Premier League appearances, many of those only as a substitute. He has fallen to the status of an emergency back-up player, and will obviously lose his start to the brilliant youngster Jarrad Branthwaite as soon as he's fit again - probably in just a few weeks. [Well, Branthwaite didn't return until GW6, and immediately suffered a re-injury, thereby unexpectedly extending Keane's run in the first team. And then, after already picking up a headed goal early in the season against Bournemouth, he scored a stunning late goal against Ipswich in Gameweek 8. Did that make me feel foolish for dissing his selection here? Absolutely not! That strike against Ipswich was a one-in-a-million occurrence; it might well be 'Goal of the Season', should certainly be in the frame - but Keane has never been known as a frequent goalscorer, and he's unlikely to produce anything like that again in his entire remaining career. It is more noteworthy that in the spell before Branthwaite's fleeting return, he had been part of a defence that let in 14 goals in 5 games, and notched a meagre 9 pts for himself - less than 2 pts per game.]

Even if you did fancy Keane as a short-term prospect until Branthwaite returns (and you really can't afford to assign valuable transfers in advance to something as trivial as replacing a defender - who tend to be fairly low-value members of your squad, even if they're regular starters, let alone bench back-up), he's got Spurs, Bournemouth and Villa up next, which is not at all a promising fixture-run for a defender to be facing.

There are plenty of other back-up defender options available at 4.0 million: the dependable Belgian international Wout Faes at Leicester, or the very attack-minded England Under-21 player Taylor Harwood-Bellis at Southampton, for example. Even with promoted sides who are likely to be often leaky in defence (and probably won't avoid immediate relegation, I'm afraid), they at least offer the prospect of being invariable starters for the whole season - which is the minimum you need from a bench player. Keane does not give you that.

PS: When Branthwaite suffered a recurrence of his muscle injury in his first game back, Keane was immediately restored to the starting line-up... and Everton kept a surprise clean sheet (their first of the season!) against an out-of-sorts Newcastle; and Keane's ownership began to surge again! The following week he scored a worldie of a goal in the dying minutes of the game against Ipswich - and The Sheep went CRAZY for him!!  (They love a defender who scores!!! They don't seem to realise that even 'good goalscorers', by the standards of defenders, almost never manage more than 3 or 4 in a season [or more than 1 in a game, or 2 in successive games...]; they seem to expect the guy to start doing it nearly every week....). Over 500,00 managers piled in for him over the next two weeks, His run in the first team extended to 4 games (though it was pretty obvious that this was because Sean Dyche wanted to ease Branthwaite back in more slowly this time, rather than because Keane had establlished a claim to priority); and people kept buying him - apparently in anticipation of him keeping a clean-sheet (and perhaps scoring another goal?!) against struggling Southampton. The promoted side aren't nearly as bad as people think, and took that game 1-0. The following week Branthwaite was back again, Keane benched - where he's likely to remain for the rest of the season (apart from an occasional game here or there when Branthwaite or Tarkowski pick up a knock or suffer a suspension). But his price has now surged to 4.3 million. That is another major problem with these misguided, over-valued picks; when their FPL managers lose confidence in them - which often happens as suddenly as the initial enthusiasm for them swelled - they can crash in price and bleed away precious squad value.

If you see Keane in someone's squad, it's a pretty strong sign that they don't know what they're doing in this game.

Squad value - why it matters

I am frequently astounded by how many folks on the FPL forums profess to be utterly uninterested in growing their squad value - positively contemptuous of the very idea; and how often they cite as authority the thoughts on the subject of various supposed 'top performing managers'.  If these people really did say things like that, they're being at best disingenuous, if not dishonest or self-deluding. (And they're probably not really as good at the game as their fans believe....)

I can see that some people become disdainful of squad value because there is a small minority of managers in the game who focus only on that, treating FPL like Monopoly, competing to try to build the most expensive squad by season's end; it's fair enough to dismiss that as weird and silly. And I can see that others want to emphasise other factors in their selection decisions - even if squad value is playing a role too. A lot of people, not unnaturally, resent feeling pressured into making a transfer move early because of an imminent price change,... and want to protest that they never let that happen to them: it's an affirmation of their autonomy, a refusal to bow to the force of circumstance. But that's also weird and silly: you need to pay attention to the changing circumstances of the game, and act accordingly.

Squad value is vitally important.  Here's why:

1) As I explained more fully in an early post on here, Pounds EQUAL Points: the more money you have deployed in your starting eleven, the more points you should be capable of earning each week. (That's not infallibly true in all cases, of course: you still have to make the best possible picks, and enjoy a little bit of good luck. But in general, someone with a 105-million-pound-squad should be able to do substantially better than someone with a 99-million-pound squad.)

2)  More money in the bank doesn't just raise your points ceiling in theory: its more direct practical benefit is the amount of flexibility it gives you. At the start of the season, with the 100-million budget cap, it will have been a struggle to afford all the premium price players you might have coveted. But once you've grown your squad value by 3 million or so, you can bring in at least one more of those... or, perhaps, upgrade more modestly in 2 or 3 other positions.

3)  The unfortunate flipside of this 'flexibility' benefit is that you can be hamstrung by a loss of squad value: a shortfall of just 100 k can prevent you from acquiring a player you want.  This is particularly the case early in the season when, because almost all of the price steps are still in even increments of 500 k, a 100 k loss in squad value is effectively the same as a 500k drop: you can no longer afford anyone at a desired price-point, only half a million cheaper. Occasionally, a sudden price-drop can be even more limiting than that: for example, if you bet on Quansah at the start of this season, and were caught out by his price-drop, you can now only replace him with a 4-million-pound player - and there aren't any decent starters at that price-point; so, you might feel obliged to hang on to the Liverpool youngster, desperately hoping that his price won't fall any further. This is why, especially early in the season, you do need to take care to avoid possible loss of squad value. You should always try to buy players just before they go up in price; and you should always look to sell players who are likely to drop in price.

4)  Furthermore, squad value is an excellent indirect indicator of how well you're playing the game. Good players become popular and rise in value; if you get maximum benefit from their price rises, it means you recognised their value early, anticipated their improving trend in form or good run of fixtures, and were one of the first to buy them. Players who lose form, get injured, or otherwise fall out of favour at their club will lose value; you don't want players like that in your squad; you might move them out quickly to have the benefit of another player in their place giving you better points potential, rather than specifically to avoid a possible drop in price - but the consequence is the same. Once again, preserving your squad value is a precise indicator that you are regularly making good decisions to optimise your squad.

[I would argue that consistent growth in squad value is actually the best indicator of your ability in the game. Average points returns fluctuate from year to year, and are very susceptible to wild swings of luck. Ranking is even more variable, since the number of players in the game - and how good they are... and how lucky they are! - can  change massively from one year to the next; and, as I explained on here before in some detail, the upper reaches of the rankings are inevitably going to be dominated by people who are more-lucky-than-good. But a good rise in squad value every year is a really reliable sign that you're doing as many things as possible right.]

This is why squad value matters. And why it's so vital to move quickly for players you fancy (especially early in the season): if you were interested in bringing in Jackson or Wissa or Muniz or Wood or Welbeck or Vardy, or Salah or Jota or DeBruyne or Smith Rowe, or Romero or Faes.... you probably can't afford to do it any more! And if you have an eye on Savinho or Lewis, or Diaz or Son, you'd better move fast.

Another way of looking at it...

Erling Haaland's hattrick at the weekend has catapulted him to 24 points for the season - an awesome, nay, positively terrifying total. That's an average of 12 points per game so far.

However, it would be astonishing if he ended up with an average of much over 8 points per game; and his owners would have to feel pretty well satisfied with anything above 6.5.

Thus, we are in fact likely to see Haaland's average points return in continuous decline through the remainder of the season....

Yes, we've already passed 'Peak Haaland'!!  (How's that for a 'positive reframe'?!)

Luck-o-Meter (2)

After a fairly chaotic opening week, with far more than its fair share of refereeing howlers and inexplicable VAR screw-ups, GW2 was a much quieter affair - thank heavens.

I would say the major hiccup in 'expectability' or 'deservedness' this time around was the margin of City's victory over Ipswich. Now, Haaland fans will of course object that he's started the season in fine form, and, at home, against a promoted side, you should always fancy him to have a good chance of scoring a hattrick. Well, a chance, yes; but it was by no means a certainty. City aren't fully in their stride yet, so early in the season; they're trying to assimilate some new tactical ideas from Pep, while missing Rodri, and also, this week, Foden. And Ipswich are probably the strongest of the three promoted sides, were able to mount a very spirited resistance against Liverpool last week. So, I wouldn't have rated this one of the 4 or 5 fixtures where Haaland was likeliest to manage a hattrick this season. I would say City's expected range of goals for this one should have been 1 to 5, with the likeliest being 2 or 3; and Haaland's personal haul could have fallen from 0 to 3, with the likeliest being only 1 or 2. And he did need a very soft penalty award to get him going (more on that in a minute...). As I observed yesterday, Ipswich did a pretty good job of frustrating City for most of the 90 minutes; it was just one unfortunate 5-minute spell where they completely fell apart - mainly due to a succession of howlers by their keeper.

Because so many FPL managers had played their Triple Captain chip on Haaland this week, the impact of this succession of unfortunate and unexpected events was very much compounded. Those who took that decision were taking a wild punt - and didn't deserve to have it pay off quite this handsomely. They should be very, very grateful that the Fantasy Gods chose to smile on them this time....

But yes, that 'penalty'....  Yes, we've seen them given often enough before, as the saying has it. Davis reached out his foot to make a challenge, pulled back, but brought the foot down sharply right next to Savinho's. It looked like there was some contact. That's a risky thing for a defender to do in the box, sure. But my main gripe is with the VAR intervention here. The ref didn't give it. VAR told him to take a second look; and as I observed last week, the bar is set so high for that kind of instruction - even higher this season than last, supposedly - that it tends to carry the unfortunate import of, "Well, it's still your decision to make.... but we think you got it wrong first time."  THAT needs to change, that burdening of the referee with the heavy expectation that he ought to change his mind.  But even worse here, the incident didn't seem to be anywhere near that supposedly high threshold: the ref looked at the replays in perplexity for a long, long time - because neither of the two camera angles available gave a clear view of the incident: the 'point of contact', if indeed there was any contact at all, was concealed in one by the ball, and in the other by the defender's trailing leg. It looked as if the Ipswich man, Leif Davis, had made some sort of contact, with the edge of his boot or the side of his leg against Savinho's lower leg or foot, but you couldn't see exactly. So, whatever else this incident might have been, it manifestly was NOT a 'clear and obvious error' by the referee in the first place. My inclination - on first, and all subsequent viewings - was that there probably had been some contact, but not enough to cause the fall, too trivial to warrant a penalty.

And then the same two players were involved in a much more clearcut penalty shout up the other end a few minutes later, which the ref again waved away without a second thought. And this time - because it was City, at home - VAR didn't dare to utter a peep of protest. THAT too has got to change: the very well-known and obvious predisposition of referees to be lenient to the 'big clubs', especially in front of their own crowds.

And then, really Muric might have been awarded a foul when bundled over by Savinho in the build-up to the second goal. That would have been a bit of a soft one, and City might have felt a little aggrieved about it. But again, we've seen them given, very, very often: keepers tangling with an attacking player, going to ground easily, and getting a generous decision from the ref is an almost weekly event. Just not when it's the opposing keeper at The Etihad??  But I think, of all Muric's many egregious faults this Saturday, one of the worst may have been failing to appeal for it. He might have got something, if he'd made a bit more of a meal out of it.

Ipswich really were desperately unlucky in that game. And everyone who'd taken the very sensible decision to keep their TripleCap chip for another day were made to feel that Fate hates them.... Such is life.

We fervently hoped that would be it for the dodgy refereeing this weekend, but no, we got a couple of even more outrageous cock-ups right at the end of the Bournemouth v Newcastle game (and Bournemouth are evidently too small a club to benefit from any 'home advantage' with referees!). First, Ouattara's last-minute winner should not have been disallowed. And the decision was doubly baffling, because first of all the VAR official took the decision away from the ref, overruling him without giving him the option to review it himself; and second, it wasn't even a close call: there are some incidents like that where you can't very clearly see where a curved ball makes contact with the also somewhat curved upper arm, and the exact delineation between the acceptable and unacceptable parts of the arm are inevitably a tad vague anyway - but this wasn't one of those cases. The ball very clearly came off his shoulder; and that's allowed. You know that when even Alan Shearer acknowledges that his beloved Newcastle didn't deserve that decision, it was very, very, very WRONG.

The ref - and VAR - then added insult to injury when Joelinton, trying to delay the restart, grabbed the Bournemouth keeper around the throat from behind and threw him to the ground. That's a red card all day long. How did both officials (and the linesman, and VAR) somehow turn a blind eye to that??? WTF???

The result, or at least the scoreline, in this match, and also the Villa-Arsenal one, might also have been very different but for a couple of really outstanding saves each from Neto and Raya. Great shots, and great stops also factor in the 'luck' equation each week.

And under this heading, Eze was once again very unlucky not to get on the scoresheet, when he thumped a long-range drive against the crossbar.

The final instance of 'bad luck' I'd like to cite this week actually arises from the FPL game mechanics, rather than the on-pitch action or the officiating. It is unbelievably perverse of the game's 'Bonus Points System' not to give Cole Palmer maximum bonus points. He set up Madueke for all of his three goals. scored one himself - much the best of Chelsea's 6 - and was involved in the other two as well ('pre-assists' ought to be a recognised category of achievement: I find it particularly galling when a pass or cross or knockdown ceases to be credited as an 'assist' because of the slightest - non-decisive, irrelevant - deflection off a defender; I remember Kaoru Mitoma and Luis Diaz had a particularly bad run of losing points through this early last season... You'd think 'pre-assists' would at least get some BPS credit as a 'key pass' - but, it seems not; or not always?!). Madueke, you can have the match ball; but Palmer was clearly, head-and-shoulders above you for 'Man of the Match'.

Still, the big names all came through this week, so Madueke is the only 'unexpected' name in the 'Team of the Week' this time.

So, once again, plenty to feel baffled and aggrieved about. But things are getting slightly better....  Slow progress, but some. Let's hope it continues. Perhaps only an 8 out of 10 rather than a 9 this week....

GW2 - What did we learn?

 

No great revelations or surprises this week....

Brighton have started well, and clearly have the attacking players to cause almost anyone a problem. But they lack control in the middle of the park, and their defence looks vulnerable because of that. Jasone Steele's in great form, and might tempt people as a 4.5-million-pound goalkeeper option - but it must be doubetful if he'll keep his place once Verbruggen's available again. 

United once again look a mess, and there must be doubts about why Ten Hag apparently doesn't trust Zirkzee or De Ligt for immediate starts.... when they appear to be fully fit, and there's obviously a desperate need for them. Or indeed why he once again doesn't want to make any use of Sancho, yet persists with the unimpressive Mount and the downright woeiful Rashford....

Palace were a bit unlucky to lose to West Ham. Eze, in particular, is playing well, and for the second week running came very close to scoring a goal. However, losing Andersen, who has been the rock of their defence for the past four seasons, is a huge blow. The departure of Ayew as well is probably not as momentous in itself, but he at least brought experience and versatility to the club, so it's a loss of squad depth they could do without. And the ongoing rumours of a possible move for Guehi are further unsettling them. It's probably not wise to go for any of their assets at the moment, particularly not at the back, until things settle down for them.

Max Kilman is looking one of the best of the summer signings, giving West Ham a solidity at the back which they've lacked in recent seasons. They still don't seem to be creating a consistent attacking threat, though. It will be interesting to see how their style under Lopategui may evolve once Fullkrug is deemed ready to play 90 minutes with them.

It's nice to see Emile Smith Rowe get off the scoring mark with Fulham. But I think anyone hoping that he's going to be "this season's Cole Palmer" are going to end up being disappointed. He - and Iwobi too - will probably prove to be very good value for his price point; but that means a 150-160-pt season, not 200+. And, of course, there are lingering doubts about whether he can avoid injury.... and how soon he'll be fit enough to play a full game.

Leicester are looking quite decent, though I have little faith in Cooper's ability as a coach at this level; they may at least put up a decent fight to stay up... rather than being as good as gone by Christmas, like most of the promoted sides in the last few years.

Ipswich may have to consider their goalkeeping choices, after Muric's abysmal display at The Etihad. Maybe he's just ring-rusty, after sitting out most of last season.... but they can't afford any more performances like that between the sticks. At least they've notched their first goal now; and, after their brutal start to the season, they've now got a long run of mostly quite winnable games. I would think they are the likeliest of this year's promoted teams to be able to stay up.

City are still some way off their best, and were really quite fortunate to win this one as comfortably as they did. Apart from a five-minute spell in the middle of the first half where Ipswich completely lost their composure - after a very soft and contentious penalty award against them - the visitors kept tham at bay pretty well.

An important win for Forest against Southampton, as this was essentially the first relegation six-pointer of the season. Neither of them really showed much here - didn't do anything to indicate they deserve to stay up.

Alarm bells are ringing at Everton. I always thought their clean-sheet record last season was a bit of a freak, and unlikely to be repeated - but without Onana to provide a screen for the back-four, they look likely to be overrun almost every week. The one bright spot for them might be that Branthwaite's injury may allow them to hang on to him through this transfer window. But I doubt if even the formdiable Sean Dyche can save them this time, without some significant new signings; they have to be among the favourites to go down at the moment.

Spurs, for me, are still not firing on all cylinders; but at least Son is looking sharp. And once Solanke finds his feet there, they could be ready to challenge for a top four spot.  Good as their back four are, I think their high line will leave them too exposed to goals on the counter-attack - so, probably none of them will be great FPL choices.

Villa, likewise, have yet to hit their stride - though Morgan Rogers continues to impress, and might have cemented a regular start for himself. Watkins hasn't found his scoring boots yet - but surely will, before very long. It's the leaky defence that worries me most... although, if Cash has a serious hamstring problem, Nedeljković may suddenly have become the most appealing 4.0 player in the game.

Arsenal I'm not completely convinced by yet: when their outstanding outfield player is Partey (two weeks in a row!), I feel something's not quite right with them; and when Raya's having to make saves, something's not quite right. They've let two of their best back-up players, Nelson and Smith Rowe go, and now seem about to lose Nketiah too; but it looks like they've failed to land either Merino or Gyokeres. If so, their transfer business in this window will have been disasrous. The only new player they have brought in, Calafiori, Arteta seems strangely unwilling to play at the moment. He, and perhaps Martinelli also, don't seem to have their manager's full confidence. Signs of 'trouble in paradise', I fear.

Newcastle are obviously going to struggle at the back without Trippier and Schar (and Botman... and Lascelles...), but I wouldn't give up on Isak just yet: Gordon, Barnes, and Joelinton all look sharp and five of their next six fixtures are fairly inviting.

A bit of a 'game of two halves' from Bournemouth, who allowed Newcastle back into the game, after dominating the first 45 minutes; but they were ultimately robbed of a deserved win by yet another bonkers VAR call. Replacing Solanke is obviously a problem for them, but Semenyo is looking good... and Evanilson may work out. They're again going to be a reasonably strong mid-table side, I think, not in any danger of relegation.

Maresca is still struggling to find his best 11 among his bloated squad; and there are worrying rumours that he's pressured to play people he doesn't really rate, just to keep them in the shop window. Palmer is obviously more dangerous when allowed to play a free 'No. 10' role as here, but may get stuck on the right flank a lot of the time to accommodate Nkunku or Joao Felix or Enzo in that sort of central area. And possibly being without both Caicedo and Lavia for the next game would be a huge blow. Even with them screening the back line, they still look very vulnerable in defence; and Sanchez is the most unconvincing goalkeeper selection in the league at the moment (well, perhaps now second to Muric!). Jackson is one of the pleasantest surprises of the season: his pace and strength were always dangerous, but he's making much more intelligent runs now, getting in good positions far more often - both in the box, and deeper during the build-up. He must be under pressure for his position from Nkunku and Felix, but, for me, is looking good enough to keep the place for now (still needs to work on not straying offside so often, though....).

Brentford have big problems, especially at the back; and are likely to take a bit of a spanking in GWs 4 and 5. At least Flekken's shot-stopping is looking sharp; but it needs to be, because they're giving up so many chances. In other areas of the game, he still doesn't convince me he should be their starting choice. Mbeumo still attracts me as a goal-scoring 'midfielder' who could get loads of Fantasy points - but his potential will be restricted if they're floundering in the relegation zone, which is looking ominously likely at the moment (Maybe the silver lining there is that it might free Thomas Frank up for the England job...?)

I don't think things are entirely rosey at Liverpool: twice now they've laboured to get a win against a side who will probably be at the bottom end of the table for most of the season. Their forwards are all looking in great form, and that will almost always carry them through. But their midfield isn't really working at the moment, and the defence hasn't looked as daunting as it was in Klopp's heyday a few years back. I was particularly pleased to see such a bright display from Luis Diaz, who has always been a favourite of mine; but, despite my own counsel against this as one of the worst FPL vices, I admit to having become rather superstitious about him: he has been the unluckiest player in the league over the past two seasons, and I am convinced something awful will happen to him the moment I bring him into my squad....  (So, for now, I'll stick with Jota... who, of course, has never been known to suffer any bad luck!)