Luck-o-Meter (15)

Well, of course, we kicked off our Gameweek 15.... without a kick-off! One of the most extreme examples of 'luck' intervening to mess with our hoped-for FPL outcomes! And believe it or not, at the start of the season, when I was listing the main sources of luck in FPL results, I did mention 'Acts of God':

I was able to celebrate Storm Darragh's wiping out of the opening Merseyside derby, because I only lost Mo Salah from my starting lineup. Many people found themselves without 3, 4, 5, even 6 players - immediate disaster for them. (Some reached in panic for their 'Free Hit' chip! And apparently the last-minute rush of attempted transfer activity crashed the FPL servers, freezing screens before changes could be implemented for some - and many managers were left doubly vexed and frustrated over the turn of events. However, I suspect most of them will ultimately be better off without having made changes. If you were fairly happy with your squad before the postponement, you shouldn't waste transfers on short-term changes. [It quite often happens that a team you're doubled or trebled up on will have an unexpectedly awful game and none of their players return anything... or all your star men are unexpectedly 'rested' on the same weekend... That kind of thing hurts bad; but you just have to suck it up. A last-minute postponement is the same kind of pain. Using a bunch of transfers to try to deal with it is like self-medicating with alcohol: it won't really make things much better now, and it will leave you with a terrible hangover the day after.]

We have to expect a lot of 'rest rotations' at this time of year, but... Ollie Watkins seemed one of the least likely players to be dropped to the bench this weekend; and that will have been a hard blow for the nearly 24% of Fantasy managers who still own him, despite his and Villa's subdued form over the past month (there was a big inrush for him this week, in anticipation of this 'easy' Southampton fixture!). Southampton largely avoided their usual catastrophic defensive errors here - the only major one, from goalkeeper Lumley, they survived by the skin of their teeth - and, in fact, Villa seemed to be making more sloppy passes. And oh, mirabile dictu, no contentious decisions here. (Not much of anything, really: a very drab game.)

The Brentford v Newcastle game was full of surprises - first, and most painful of which for me (because I recently bought him), was that the almost-never-rested Anthony Gordon got rested (and he didn't make much of an impact when he eventually came on as a sub). Newcastle, perhaps emotionally and physically depleted by their defiant heroics against Liverpool in midweek, were incredibly flat; in fact, this was probably their worst performance of the entire season - with Nick Pope having a particularly bad day at the office, and Lewis Hall (another recent purchase of mine!) having an absolute stinker. One should expect some wild swings of form during the crowded holiday fixture schedule, but even so, it is unusual that one team can suddenly be so much worse than expected, while their opponents produce their best game of the season, as Brentford did here! Moreover, there are certain patterns which, although one can't necessarily determine their causative roots, seem so reliable that they come to mould our expectations (not unreasonably). One such is that the Brentford forwards tend to take it in turns with the goals, and rarely does more than one of them score in the same game; but here, Mbeumo (suddenly back from a five-game mini-slump), Wissa, and Schade (who was only on as a substitute) all scored; and a bloody defender, Nathan Collins, too! A big tremor on the Luck-o-Meter in this one, for all sorts of reasons!  (And I have to admit, Mark Flekken is growing on me slightly of late; well, I think he's slowly getting better. And his scrambling recovery to tip the ball off Isak's toe as he set himself to fire the ball into an empty net was really a top piece of goalkeeping. I still don't think he's anywhere near the best goalkeeper in the EPL; but I wouldn't rank him dead last any more...)

At least there weren't any problems with the refereeing in this game... Well, except for that incident where Dan Burn made a heroic last-ditch block to prevent a late fifth goal after Mbeumo dispossessed a hapless Pope 35 yards out (I was more alarmed by the keeper's complete lack of pace to even try and recover, rather than his initial clumsiness on the ball): Burn clearly attempted to steer the ball away from the goal and back towards his approaching keeper - and did so successfully; Pope immediately picked the ball up and looked to bowl it out to another defender. If the Pau Torres touch to Martinez last weekend was deemed a 'back-pass', why was this not? As I observed then, there's just no consistency about how this rule is applied. [Another bugbear of mine is how careless goalkeepers are now allowed to be in handling the ball near the edge of the box, particularly when about to launch a kick forward: there are examples every week of the ball plainly having strayed outside the lines of the penalty area in a keeper's hands, but referees never do anything about it. There was one particularly egregious example a few weeks back - can't remember who it was now; Vicario, maybe? - where a keeper fell on the ball on the edge of the area, and it briefly rolled a good foot outside the box while he still had his hands on it - but the ref turned a blind eye.]

City floundering against a lower-half side is no longer surprising; it will surely continue to happen unless they can find some sort of Rodri fill-in in January (and replacements too for Walker and Gundogan, who clearly no longer have the legs to play in this League). The only big surprise here was that Rico Lewis finally got a goal (although he has threatened a few times this season; and has 'previous' against Palace); and then got himself sent off! The second booking looked incredibly harsh (Chalobah's boot arriving at the point of contact slightly after Lewis's, and scraping the studs over Lewis's instep - if anything, a foul the other way). The major problem here is with the VAR protocols: sendings-off are so important that they clearly should review all instances, not just 'straight red' situations.

Manchester United fans will no doubt protest that their result was unjust, as they managed to dominate the possession (three-to-one!) and 'expected goals' numbers. But, although they managed to move the ball around a little better than Forest, especially in the first half, Forest had a clear edge in competitiveness, and always felt more 'in control' of the game to me. It was a fair old humdinger, though, with a number of near-misses - notably a crisp volley by Murillo just wide of the near post from a corner, and Martinez's athletic volley over the bar in the closing minutes, as well as Bruno's free-kick effort fingertipped on to the face of the crossbar by Sels, and Jota Silva's powerful early header crashing against the woodwork. One might also consider it... unusual that Andre Onana, who should by rights be one of the best 3 or 4 goalkeepers in the Premier League, had one of those days where he looked like he belonged in Division Two. And he should really have been booked for his ridiculous faffing around with the placing of the ball for the free-kick in the dying minutes (WHY was he time-wasting anyway, when it was his team chasing the equaliser??). Apart from that, though, it seemed to be a pretty well-refereed game, with no controversial decisions.

Sunday, alas, was one of the worst days for VAR that I can remember for a while. Well, there have been an awful lot of them this season, but this one was certainly up there. Kulusevski should clearly have been sent off against Chelsea for blatantly throwing his elbow into the side of Lavia's head, a really nasty foul - somehow completely missed by the officials. (Spurs fans will whinge that perhaps Caicedo should have been sent off a little earlier for kicking Sarr on the shin, but that looked to me like an accidental foll0w-through, as he stumbled forwards slightly off balance; there was little force behind the contact. It should certainly have received a yellow card, and didn't; but it was nowhere near a red.)  Yet another goal was ridiculously disallowed for a non-existent foul on a goalkeeper, and yet again VAR shirked its responsibility (an injustice that will cut particularly deep for relegation-strugglers Ipswich). And then there were some utterly unfathomable offside calls in the Fulham v Arsenal game.  [Grinds teeth in frustration]

Fulham have become a bit of a bogey team for Arsenal, and Marco Silva again did a very good tactical job of smothering their threat here. And even Arteta - for once - took a harsh decision against his side with uncomplaining good grace. Fulham indeed had done enough to deserve a point - although Raul converting their only chance of the game so well was a bit unexpected; especially after a six-game spell when he has not merely not scored but never looked likely to! - and I suppose the dubious offside calls cancel each other out, since I felt Saliba was fairly clearly, if narrowly, offside, while Martinelli almost certainly wasn't (but either way, it was one of those that was too close for any decision on it to be sensibly made) - although the second one rankles with me as it denied Saka any points in the game, and I'd given him my captain's armband after Salah disappeared from the roster. 

My gripe about these decisions, though, is with the VAR process. On live coverage, they seem to have started occasionally showing us a camera view inside the VAR room (is this new? I haven't noticed it before); however, this is vexingly unrevealing, since it is without any audio, and the view is facing away from the monitor screens, so we have no idea what they're looking at. It actually adds to our confusion and anxiety, rather than dispelling it!  Both these decisions took an inordinately long time; and in both cases, a decision appeared to have been reached before the 'lines' were superimposed on the still frame to indicate how it was supposed to have been reached (are the pictures shared at the ground and with TV stations the same as those the VAR officials are seeing??  surely, they ought to be; but we just don't know). Even worse, the still frames being shared on TV were not the most appropriate ones: in the first case the action appeared to have been stopped a bit before Havertz headed back across the face of the goal, so Saliba was not at his furthest point forward (and he still looked offside by an inch or so; but when the ball was actually headed, it looked to me more like a foot); for the second, it just wasn't the best angle to make the call, too far ahead of the defensive line (a better view later appeared, to retroactively justify the decision; but even in that one, Martinelli, way over on the far side, looked just onside). There was again a timing issue with that second decision, as Martinelli checked back for a fraction of a second while the nearest defender was still retreating, and just as the ball was being played to him - so a difference of a 10th or a 20th of a second would have made a substantial difference to the players' relative positions, and it was not clear that the action had been frozen at the appropriate moment. In any case, another Arsenal player almost in line was blocking a clear view of where those two players' feet were, so really I don't see how any decision was possible. In fact, it looked very much as if the call may have been made not against Martinelli, but against another Arsenal forward (Trossard, I suppose?), between the Fulham centre-back and right-back, who was clearly a foot or so offside - but also very clearly not interfering with play. These two decisions may not have been 'wrong' (though they both looked it to me); but it was not clear on what basis they had been made - and that lack of clarity in the process is completely unacceptable.

Ipswich really only have themselves to blame: more atrocious defending from them allowing Bournemouth to nick the game at the death. But they will feel hard done-by - rightly so - at being denied a goal for Delap putting a hand on Kepa's arm at a corner. The amount of indulgence being shown towards goalkeepers by referees has reached an utterly ridiculous level. (And once more, VAR appear to have taken a look, and said: "Well, that was a ridiculous call. But we can't call out a colleague as ridiculous, so... let's just pretend we saw nothing wrong with it.")

Brighton dominated most of the game at Leicester, but couldn't make it count - ultimately needing a couple of worldies from Lamptey and Minteh (and a fantastic fingertip save by Hermansen from Estupinan's fierce drive early on), after the more usual outlets of Mitoma, Ferguson, and Joao Pedro had all spurned chances; and then sitting back to defend the two-goal lead for the last 10 minutes.... and not being able to do so??  Bizarre game on the footballing front; but at least there didn't appear to be any refereeing cock-ups in this one.

The Spurs v Chelsea game got off to a weird start, with the hosts being gifted a couple of goals inside the first 10 minutes or so as a result of - the otherwise excellent! - Cucurella twice giving possession away by falling over (his complaint about the studs on his boots probably just a scapegoat excuse??). The endlessly flakey Sanchez looked somewhat at fault in goal on both of them too. For the first, he appeared to be trying to come out for the cross (which was obviously going to be cleared by his defender, if the Spurs forward at the near post didn't reach it first), rather than staying on his line to guard his near post; it was as if he hadn't even seen Solanke running in on the ball. And the second, while a crisp shot through a defender's legs, nestled right inside the near post, didn't have that much power in it, and Sanchez got across to it comfortably enough but somehow didn't get his hand on it. For me, that is a keeper that has got to go (and I'm not alone: the 'Match of the Day' pundits on the BBC seem to have been saying the same every weekend for the past month or more). A thrilling end-to-end game, with a fair few near-misses, a 'Goal of the Month' contender from Sancho, 2 penalties (both completely uncontentious, for once), Jackson's finishing - mostly immaculate so far this season - suddenly letting him down again (and so denying Palmer perhaps 2 or 3 more assists!!), and the rare sight of Son Heung-Min fluffing an easy one-on-one... And Cole Palmer (much as I love him...) was extremely fortunate to be awarded an 'assist' for his pass across the box to Enzo, since it took a huge deflection off a Spurs defender, and most of the time even the smallest intervening touch will rob a player of credit for setting up a goal (I worry that this decision may yet get revised, possibly harming his bonus points tally as well... God, I hope not: he's the only player who returned for me this week!). This match alone was probably worth a couple of points on my Luck-o-Meter scale!

Monday night's West Ham v Wolves clash was really a 'Save Your Manager's Job' match; and I had thought that perhaps Wolves would be a little more motivated on Gary O'Neill's behalf than West Ham would be for the drab and uninspiring Lopategui. But not as it turned out: despite a thumping half-volley equaliser from Matt Doherty (yet another goal from a defender?!), West Ham looked to be absolutely dominant in this one; and if Mohammed Kudus was aware of the offside law, they might easily have scored 4 or 5. And there was another selection 'surprise' here, with O'Neill suddenly switching back to Sam Johnstone in goal, in place of Jose Sa (it didn't do him any good; but it will have pissed off the 2% of managers who still owned Sa). Swapping your keeper is usually a sign of ultimate desperation; isn't that right, Pep?

Alas, it looks as though - yet again - O'Neill can feel rightly aggrieved at the refereeing decisions in this game: the corner from which Soucek headed his opener should have been a goal-kick (although that's no excuse for the awful defending, as four Wolves players formed a gaggle near the edge of the six-yard box to watch the lanky Czech eagerly waiting for his free header to arrive, and doing absolutely nothing to try to prevent it); Emerson ran into the back of Guedes on the edge of the box, but VAR declared, rather dubiously, that the contact had started 'outside the area'; and then in the closing minutes, Mavropanos stamped on Bellegarde's foot - clearly inside the box this time, and clearly a foul, but once more both the referee and the VAR team unaccountably looked the other way. While these accumulating small injustices will rankle with Wolves fans, and probably have had some impact on their standing in the table, it doesn't alter the fact that their performances this season have been abysmal - and O'Neill really needs to go now (probably should have gone a month back). But so does Lopategui: he's doing an even worse job, with a much stronger group of players.

Losing an entire game from the schedule - especially 'at the last minute' (only around 2 hours before the deadline; which, for a Saturday luncthtime kick-off, is still the middle of the night for anyone playing the game in the Americas!) - is probably worth 4 or 5 points on the Luck-o-Meter straight away.

Losing Mo Salah, the most potent player in the game at the moment, to that postponement, and then having so many other leading players either rested (especially Watkins and Gordon, both quite high owned), or dropped (Maddison!) amped up the unpredictability of the weekend even further. There were some moderately surprising performances and results too, with Southampton holding Villa to the narrowest of victories, Leicester, Fulham, and Palace managing draws against the much more fancied Brighton, Arsenal and Manchester City, and Brentford/Newcastle, Man Utd/Forest, and Spurs/Chelsea producing multi-goal ding-dongs!!

And among the 'usual suspects', only Cole Palmer had a big week this time - and that essentially down to the 2 silly penalties Spurs gave him (his first 2 of the season???). The 'Team of the Week' is really a bit of a joke, with almost no-one that any sensible manager would (any longer) own: Emi Martinez and Ezri Konsa are very poor picks for the long-haul, almost never keep clean sheets (but did this week!); Saliba is, of course, a great player - but usually only third choice from the Arsenal defence after Gabriel and Timber (and he looked to me well offside for his goal, though VAR somehow erred in his favour!); Tariq Lamptey and Tim Hughes are irregular starters, Ouattara only just back from injury; Mbeumo, Bowen, Raul, and Vardy were all making surprise returns to form after a scoring drought (5 games without a goal for Mbeumo and Bowen, 6 for Raul, and - before last week - 4 for Vardy); and Morgan Gibbs-White hadn't produced anything since his solitary goal of the season in the second game against hopeless Southampton. So, that right there, that combination of the usually reliable players (Saka, Jackson, Joao Pedro, Isak, Watkins...), as well as many of the recently popular 'Sheep Picks' (Cunha, Ait-Nouri, Iwobi, Porro, Kerkez...) all producing little or nothing... while so many players we should have given up on by now came good again out of nowhere... that on its own is probably worth at least 4 points on the Luck-o-Meter scale.

And then, on top of all the wild swings of fortune in the selections and performances, we had some spectacularly bad decisions marring the gameweek too: Lewis being wrongly sent off, Kulusevski being wrongly allowed to remain on the field, Ipswich being denied a perfectly good goal, Wolves being denied 1 or 2 penalties, and a few offsides so close that the VAR determinations on them were severely unconvincing. Ugh - just a horrible, horrible Gameweek. I only hesitate to give it a maximum score of 10 because I fear there will almost certainly be at least one week this season that manages to be spectactularly worse still, but.... it's definitely a strong 9 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter.

Thank you, 'Darragh'!

 

At about 9am this morning, UK time,  the weekend's opening fixture - Everton v. Liverpool - was postponed due to extreme weather warnings issued about the imminent impact of 'Storm Darragh' on the west coast of England, Wales, and Scotland.

I couldn't think of a famous Darragh to help us celebrate this splendid news, and a Google search turned up only about half a dozen or so Gaelic footballers and rugby players with this forename.... and this 20th century American landscape artist, Darragh Park. [His painting above is called 'Untitled' - I may use it again at the end of the year, in a retrospective post on Manchester City's season.]

I find myself in buoyant spirits about this meteorological newsflash.... first, for the unworthy but delicious schadenfreude of being able to scoff at all the FPL managers who happen to be loaded up on Liverpool and/or Everton players (Pickford a semi-popular goalkeeper pick all season; McNeil still in a lot of squads, after a hot start to the year, despite a recent injury and lull in form; Mykolenko newly in demand again after a big haul against Wolves this midweek...). Their Gameweek is wrecked before it starts! In fact, if they rush to make a bunch of paid transfers to try to fix the holes, the rest of us will start with a forest of 'green arrows' indicating a rank rise at their expense - a nice psychological lift for those of us who only have Salah, even if the rest of the Gameweek takes a nosedive from there....

This, by the way, is the main reason why I always advise that people should resist doubling up on too many teams, and try to avoid trebling up on any...  It leaves you way too vulnerable to the occasional 'Act of God' disaster like this (or... just the whole team having a bad day at the office one week!).

Perhaps even more exhilarating, though, is the realisation that this means Mo Salah is going to get an additional Double Gameweek in a few months' time, to catch up this missed fixture. [Only two regular Double Gameweeks are expected this season, both relatively 'small', and right at the back end of the season. And, of course, we don't yet know which teams will be involved: it is quite possible that Super-Mo may not be playing in either of them.... and perhaps not any other of our most fancied Triple Captain picks either.]

Better yet, it looks as if the likeliest gaps in the fixture schedule are in Gameweeks 28 or 33 - when Liverpool are already due to face Southampton and Leicester. The prospect of Mo Salah facing TWO of the weakest teams in the League in quick succession is mouthwatering indeed; it looks very much like a prime opportunity to exploit the Triple Captain chip. [I haven't really looked into this myself yet, but I see the online prognosticators are now identifying GW25 in mid-February as perhaps the most likely - or most desirable, anyway, because earliest - opportunity to make up this fixture. That's possibly even better for a Salah double-fixture, as Liverpool are already facing Wolves at Anfield that week (with Wolves nearing the end of a long run of 'unwinnable' games, and likely to have morale at the bottom of the ocean).]

Of course, we must rein in our excitement. Those Gameweeks are both far off in March. Salah might have lost form or got injured by then (or perhaps even departed for Saudi in the winter transfer window.... heaven forbid!). And who knows, perhaps Leicester or Southampton might have got much better by then. (Well, Leicester might have...)

Still, it is something to look forward to, a little bright spark of HOPE to warm us on a dark, blustery winter's day.  At the very least, it allows us to enjoy a smug giggle back at all the people who giggled smugly at us when they got a decent haul from playing their Triple Captain on Haaland or Salah or Palmer early in the season.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW15

 

Once again in this hectic December, the main uncertainties are likely to surround 'rest rotations' - and the sudden realisation of 'totting up' suspensions -  rather than injuries. And with such negligible turnaround between Gameweeks 14 and 15, I fear we're unlikely to get much, if any, definitive news on the weekend's likely lineups until very close to the deadline on Saturday.

However, I'll do my best to sum up what we know so far (still only mid-morning on Friday, UK time).

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 15?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Gabriel missed the midweek game against Manchester United with his ongoing knee niggle, but the Arsenal rumour-mill seems optimistic that he'll manage to be OK again for Sunday's visit to Fulham. Even if he doesn't, it doesn't yet seem worth having a punt on Kiwior!

Ben Davies and Marcos Senesi apparently both picked up serious muscle injuries in last night's game, and look likely to be out for weeks. Particularly bad news for Spurs, who now have Dragusin as their only mainline centre-back still available; I imagine this means that Porro will drop into central defence, and someone will have to improvise as a right-back. It may be a little less of a catastrophe for Bournemouth, as teen star Dean Huijsen, 'Man of the Match' last night, looks like he could deputise very capably for a few weeks.

Luke Shaw has reportedly suffered yet another muscle injury early this week in training, and is set to be unavailable again for a while.

And Nathan Ake had to go off against Forest at the weekend with what looked like a hamstring problem; hopefully, not too serious, but... it probably means that Gvardiol will continue to be worked into the ground while there is no decent cover for him on the left of the defence. Manuel Akanji, pulled at half time in that game, is also now a 'doubt' - although Pep hasn't deigned to say why (he might just have looked at the dugout 'in a funny way'....).

Kieran Trippier and Phil Foden were both surprise omissions from the midweek squads, supposedly with 'illness' - and are likely to be absent again this weekend (even if well again, they probably won't have trained much).

It now seems Alisson and Conor Bradley are likely to remain out until after Christmas; but Diogo Jota might be close to a comeback...  But there's still no timeline on Konate's recovery.

Thomas Frank thinks Christian Norgaard should be OK again to play against Newcastle. And a raft of Brighton players - Hinshelwood, Kadioglu, March, Veltman, Webster - are said to be 'close' to a return at last (although maybe not this weekend 'close').

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Alexis Macallister is the only new player to reach five yellow cards and so be forced to miss this weekend.

Facundo Buonanotte and Reiss Nelson, as loanees, are ineligible to face their parent clubs, Brighton and Arsenal, this week.

I was on the brink of nominating Amad Diallo as one of my 'Picks of the Week', but then he got dropped in midweek. Ruben Roulette is very much a thing... at least for the time being. It's not clear if he's just trying to give everyone in his slightly bloated squad a fair shake, or if he just can't find any combination of players who really work with his preferred system. Either way, I wouldn't go near any United players with a bargepole... probably until after the 'winter break', by which time the new coach might have settled on a preferred lineup.

Robert Sanchez's omission on Wednesday was ostensibly just another rest, and give-back-up-squad-members-some-minutes decision by Maresca; but Sanchez has been increasingly called out by the punditry in recent weeks as a conspicuously weak link in the Chelsea set-up... and Filip Jorgensen did put in a very good performance deputising for him. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Sanchez 'rested' some more, if not dropped completely over the next month.  And if Jorgensen isn't considered an adequate replacement, I should think it's a near-certainty that they'll try to bring in a new keeper in January (or recall Kepa from loan, perhaps?) - so, if you have Sanchez (he is currently the third most selected keeper, with an ownership of around 13%), it could be time to consider dropping him.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

We can usually forgive a goalkeeper one off game (maybe even two or three), but Bart Verbruggen will have sorely tested his manager's patience with his dreadful performance against Fulham last night; and Jason Steele is a very capable back-up option.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Night-time games often throw people off their stride a bit; and there were so many changes from normal optimal team lineups in this Gameweek that I don't think any of the results or performances are to be relied on much as a guide to form going forward, for either teams or individuals. 

Alex Iwobi obviously caught the eye with his double strike against Brighton. But we've always known how good he can be; he just hasn't been showing it very often for Fulham so far this season - and this one good game wasn't enough to suggest that that is going to drastically change now.

Mateta and Eze seem to be nearly back to their best... but Palace don't have fixtures to get excited about over the next month or so, and are likely to remain deep in the relegation zone until well into next year.  

I'm more excited about Bournemouth's young defender Dean Huijsen, as a short- to medium-term budget pick.  He looks to have a maturity beyond his years (pretty much kept Dom Solanke in his pocket all game) - and may be about to get an extended run in the side, with an apparently quite serious injury to regular centre-back Senesi last night.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A little bit of Zen (19)

 

"Pain is inevitable. Suffering is optional."

Haruki Murakami

Luck-o-Meter (14)

Ipswich were strangely flat, in what was really looking like a 'must-win' home game for them (well, they're already at the point where all of their games against other bottom-half teams are must-win); but they did have a few close-calls, including one effort bundled against the post in the closing seconds. Palace seem to be finally getting their game together in defence, and are starting to produce an attacking threat again with Eze and Mateta returning to something like their best form. In a tight and unspectacular game, a draw would probably have been a fairer result, but - at least as far as we could see on brief highlights - there were no officiating injustices in this one.

Vardy's opening goal against West Ham suffered a bizarrely poor initial call by the linesman: the Leicester striker had checked back onside and the retreating defender had stretched his rear leg way out, meaning that when Vardy began his run again as the ball was played through, he was well onside - easy to see with the naked eye; at least VAR put that one right. After that, it was one-way traffic for a while the other way, with Hermansen registering a remakable 7 saves across the game (although Fabianski's tip-over of Ndidi's powerful header was probably the best save of the game) and Coady blocking one effort on the line.... But the Ipswich keeper got very lucky when Soucek's close-range header was ruled out for the mildest of 'backing in' on him. West Ham seem to feel generally aggrieved that they came away with nothing from a game where they generated a huge number of attempts on goal; but the bottom line is, their finishing was terrible. And their defending was terrible too; on the highlights, anyway, this really didn't feel like a game they dominated or controlled, even if they did have the great majority of possession - because Leicester kept looking likely to mount a breakaway, and looked likely to pick up a goal every time they did.

While Arsenal were glad to see Partey make a quick return from injury, they were without Gabriel and Calafiori, having to rely on Kiwior and Zinchenko instead; but it didn't seem to do them too much harm. But in a tight game, it was their threat from corners that proved decisive - with two goals from defenders: one from never-scored-before Timber (yes, he was one of my recommendations last week; but I'll never try to take credit for a defender scoring a goal - you buy them for their clean sheets and assists potential) and one off Saliba's bum (still, they all count...). Anyone who's backed Manchester United players in hopes of an immediate 'Amorim Bounce' is left ruing not so much the lacklustre overall performance as the extreme number of rotations; I can see wanting to ration minutes in this super-busy phase of the season, and wanting to give everyone a try-out, but making so many changes for such an important game - and leaving the two players who were most impressive at the weekend, Diallo and Zirkzee, out of the starting lineup - seemed a tad self-destructive. Onana, in particular, seems a bit discombulated by the constant switches in his back-three, and was not at all his usual commanding self at set-pieces. So, some selection surprises and two unusual goalscorers here, but - thank heavens - no refereeing controversies.

Are Villa back? Well, maybe. The midfield looked a lot more solid with Kamara returned to hold things together, and Rogers pushing forward into much more advanced positions than usual (if he could maintain a strike-rate of a goal in every 4 or 5 games, he might yet prove me 'wrong' about him - though, note, I always said I thought he might be capable of producing a decent FPL tally, I just didn't feel he was showing much likelihood of it so far this season; and I still don't feel he's the most promising of the sub-6-million midfield picks). It was a weak-ish penalty from Watkins, and Flekken, after getting a good hand on it, really should have kept it out. It was also a rather soft call in the first place; and, even more troublingly, VAR only seemed to show one view of the incident; from behind the goal-line, looking towards the advancing players - so just you couldn't see Pinnock's alleged contact on Watkins's trailing heel. VAR should not be participating in any decisions of this nature if they haven't got a definitive TV view available to them; and, in this case, it appeared that they did not.

In the big relegation match-up at Goodison, Everton - perhaps slightly surprisingly? probably not, really - came out comfortably on top. Apart from one decent effort from Cunha early on, well saved by Pickford, Wolves were rarely in the game. And they gifted Everton a dream start by misaligning their defensive wall to allow Ashley Young a soft opener direct from a free-kick. Mykolenko notched his first assist of the season; Mangala, with a screamer from the edge of the box, was also a most unexpected goalscorer (in only his sixth start of the season); and poor Craig Dawson managed to put in 2 own-goals (when was the last time that happened?). Everton could easily have won even more emphatically - with Tarkowski's headed goal beng ruled out for an alleged 'subjective offside' by a teammate (these decisions almost always seem contentious at best, downright unjust at worst; but here it was merely baffling, as the VAR replays shown on the Beeb did not feature any Everton players anywhere near an offside position, so there did not appear to be any 'subjective' issue to resolve!), and later the referee again (as at Ipswich) over-protecting the keeper in denying an effort by Ndiaye after Sa play-acted that he'd been flattened by a mundane 50-50 contact with Calvert-Lewin (I'd like to see goalkeepers starting to get booked for 'simulation' once in a while; I really saw nothing in this at all). This unexpectedly robust home performance has probably saved Sean Dyche's job for at least another week or two; while the - frankly, expectedly - dismal showing from Wolves has probably sealed Gary O'Neill's fate. Although Julen Lopategui and Russell Martin must surely also be strong contenders for a sacking before Christmas.

Are City back?? Well, certainly well on the way - with Dias, Doku, and Grealish all playing a full part again, and, most of all, the great Kevin DeBruyne (although apparently he's still struggling a little bit with a hernia?), this was something like the City of old; 3 stunning goals.... and a couple of near-misses from Gvardiol. However, they needed a superb stop by Ortega from Gibbs-White and the very rare phenomenon of Chris Wood failing to convert a one-on-one to keep them on track, and secure a clean sheet that didn't feel quite deserved..

Newcastle v Liverpool was an old-school thriller! Liverpool's defence inevitably looks much less invulnerable with Quansah and Gomez (who always looks to me like an accident-waiting-to-happen, especially when he's in the central areas; and last night, those 'accidents' happened at least twice!). And here, even Van Dijk was somewhat below his usual imperious best, and the so far immaculate Kelleher made a bizarre error of judgement to allow Newcastle a late equaliser. Liverpool also needed an awful lot of help from the officials, with Van Dijk clearly deserving a sending-off for barging Gordon in the face (a wanton piece of off-the-ball thuggery, most untypical for him; the sheer gratuitousness of it, and the fact that when such a big man puts most of his considerable weight behind a shoulder into the cheekbone, it can do a lot of damage - well, for me, that certainly makes it a straight-red incident, and deserving of an extended ban too); Isak had a pretty clear penalty turned down when Quansah tripped him on the edge of the box; and then, as a final insult, referee Andy Madley blew the whistle for the end of the game when Newcastle had Liverpool outnumbered on a quick counter-attack; it has long been a convention - if not perhaps clearly formulated in the rules - that you don't time the game to the second when a team clearly has a goal-scoring chance imminent, but let it continue a short while to allow the current move to play out. Whatever's happened to that??  Gosh, there were loads of near-misses in this one too, with Macallister, Gordon, and Salah all smashing the woodwork. This one game, alas, probably gets the old Luck-o-Meter well into the upper half of its scale....

Southampton predictablly got steamrollered by Chelsea, who were not noticeably weakened by their multiiple changes to the line-up - although some FPL managers will no doubt be much aggrieved by the 'rest' given to Jackson and Sanchez (I wonder if Jorgensen's promotion in goal might prove permanent; it is one I have been lobbying for since the start of the season, and Sanchez has increasingly looked like the weak link in the side over the past month or two); Palmer not having many chances (the only major one well saved by Lumley) was also a bit of a disappointment, but at least he got to bundle one home just before he was taken off with 12 minutes left. Southampton's Stephens suffered an inevitable red card for a minor tug on Curcurella's flamboyant hair (not nearly so egregious as Cristian Romero's assault on the same player's frizzy locks a couple of years ago, which bizarrely went unpunished!).

Brighton, I thought, looked a little unlucky to get beaten, and certainly to get beaten 3-1. They had some good chances, but somehow weren't quite as clinical in the final third as they usually are, and Leno produced a few smart saves when he needed to; while Iwobi, who hasn't done an awful lot so far this season, suddenly came up with a couple of firecrackers (and was probably angling to try and claim the middle one, where his mere presence in the six-yard box so discombobulated the opposition at a corner-kick that two of the defenders contrived to deflect the ball into their own net - a goal so freakish that, on its own, it counts as quite a high incidence of 'luck'!!), At the other end, by contrast, Verbruggen had an absolute stinker, giving away the lead with a diabolical pass straight to Iwobi at the edge of the box, then failing to do anything to try to part the ruck of players in front of him at the near post when Fulham went ahead again with the multiple ricochet corner (I really feel that a goalkeeper has to at least make a show of trying to come to claim those, making players afraid to stand in his path - even if that means laying out one or two of his own players with a well-aimed elbow!), and for the third, Iwobi's neat little curler, yes, he was a bit unsighted on it - but he was nevertheless, surely, just a little bit too far over towards his near post and just a little bit slow to react. (I had a feeling I was probably going to jinx the poor devil when I made him a supplementary 'Pick of the Week' last week....)

Spurs also seemed a bit unfortunate not to get something in the game, although Bournemouth did have more and better attacks, and only another solid performance from Forster between the sticks kept down the margin of defeat. [Again, the micro-highlights available on Youtube did not reveal any questionable refereeing in these two matches, and I haven't yet seen anything in early match reports. But I bet there was something....]

So, there were quite a few cracking goals, and cracking saves this week; and a fair few less expected goalscorers - Khannouss, Fullkrug, Young, Mangala, Disasi, Aribo, Madueke, Sancho, Timber, Saliba, Cash, Iwobi, Baleba, Huijsen (!!),,,, yep, way more than usual! The 'Team of the Week' finds itself lined up in the preposterous 4-5-1 formation - with Watkins as centre-forward! - and probably only Salah and Saliba (and maybe Watkins...?) are the only members with ownership above a few percent; heck above 1 percent! And good heavens, even points-anti-magnet Dom Calvert-Lewin somehow managed to get himself credited for an assist this week! These random goal heroes exacerbated the effects of all the unpredictable rest rotations, leaving many FPL managers struggling to put out a full eleven, even if they had a decent bench to call upon. And I have found it conspicuous how many of the leading teams for the week that I've looked at are.... actually really bad. for any other week. That's how it goes sometimes; it can be really galling, but we must learn to let it go.

So, the randomness of the play - and the team selections! - in this Gameweek would get it well above half-way on the 'Luck' scale already; but then the large number of dodgy decisions (a few goals disallowed for very tight offsides - even if they were 'correct' decisions, we don't like to see goals denied for such small margins, and such almost-too-close-to-call incidents are in themselves significant instances of 'luck'; another - Tarkowski's header against Wolves - chalked off for a non-existent 'offside' by somebody else; and two more disallowed for illusory 'fouls' on the goalkeeper; only two penalties, as far as I can recalll, but both - one given, one not given - probably wrong; and then that string of poor calls in the Newcastle v Liverpool match, most unquestionable and damaging of which was the failure to send off Virgil Van Dijk for a clear assault on Anthony Gordon.... just because of his godlike 'aura'??) boosts it to an 8 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter, I'm afraid. And even that's probably a slightly conservative rating.

[Yes, this post has ended up being a good bit longer than most in the series. I fear I have unconscioiusly blended it with my former series of mini-analyses of all the individual matches, which I decided last week I'd have to discontinue because I was finding it too time-consuming. I don't know if it might be feasible to continue to combine the former two strands of the blog like this here in 'Luck-o-Meter'... Probably not. But for this week, at least, it seemed appropriate to go into a little more detail about the individual games because unexpected rotations, returns from injury, shifts in form, and surprisingly good or bad performances from individuals did seem to be the major factors both in team performance and result.... and how lucky I felt the results were. This probably won't always be the case.]

Dilemmas of the Week - GW14

Usually I start these pieces with a standard preamble about the importance of transfers and the factors that dictate our choices regarding them. But this time, with our first midweek Gameweek of the year upon us, I will just repeat my observations from last Friday that, at this crazy time of the year, unpredictable team selections and fluctuations in form make these choices even harder than usual, and it is wise to proceed with extreme caution.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 14?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Gabriel and Partey are doubts to start for Arsenal.

So too are Okoli and Emi Martinez (which could be a bit of a windfall for the 100,000 or so who went for Robin Olsen as their back-up keeper - although with Villa's current dismal form, they don't look likely to return many defensive points).

Isak's doubtful after coming off with a 'knock' on Saturday as well. Though I imagine that he'll play if he can walk, as Wilson doesn't yet look fit enough to attempt anything like a full 90 minutes, and while Gordon can, as we know, do a decent job as a 'false 9', it's a bit of a waste of his talents.

There seems to be no news yet on Konate and his 'knee injury' sustained in last week's game against Real Madrid; but no news is bad news, I fear, and he's also likely to be out for a little while. (Well, it's 'good news' for Joe Gomez owners, I suppose.)

Mavropanos and Solanke both missed the weekend with illnesses, and might be out again; but at least it looks as though Cristian Romero might be ready to return for Spurs.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Sasa Lukic, Kobbie Mainoo, Nelson Semedo, Tyler Dibling, and Tayor Harwood-Bellis will all serve a one-match ban this Gameweek, for collecting a fifth yellow card of the season last weekend (as if things weren't bad enough for Southampton already!). At least Mo Kudus is due back from his five-game ban for the Everton game. However, we are now into that phase of the season where we are likely to see quite a rash of these totting-up bans in almost every Gameweek.

Pep unexpectedly wielded the axe against Gvardiol and Ederson at the weekend, so their starts must again be uncertain - although it's not clear (when is it ever, with Pep?) whether dropping them was a one-off 'rest', or change for change's sake (perhaps to give important back-up players a few valuable minutes?), rather than a negative judgement on their performances. But City are so poor at the moment, it would probably be better to steer clear of any of their players - even if there weren't additional doubts about who might be going to start (I noted yesterday that we have to fear a desperate Pep; his decisions are likely to get even more quirky and unpredictable over the next month or two).

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Marcus Rashford may have earned himself a repriece, with a rather livelier performance against Everton as the left-sided '10'; however, I can't help feeling that Mason Mount or perhaps even Christian Eriksen might be better fits for that role; and he might also be contesting it with Zirkzee and Garnacho. Rasmus Hojlund's place might also be in jeopardy after a very good all-around display as the '9' against Everton from Zirkzee. Though I'd be wary of going in for any of United's players as yet, because their grasp on what Amorim wants from them tactically still looks a little shakey, and I imagine the new manager will for a while continue to rotate his squad experimentally, until he finds a 'best 11' that he's really satisfied with.

Kyle Walker doesn't look to have the legs for the Premier League any more, and is becoming the biggest liability in a suddenly very rickety City defence; I would be very surprised if he gets many more starts.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

The Sheep, of course, will be piling in for Schade and Evanilson, failing to appreciate that their performances were pure freak events that won't be repeated in years. Evanilson is starting to look a decent forward option, but I'm still wary of the extent to which Bournemouth share their fairly meagre goals haul around so many players (and the fact that he's not on penalties for them!); I don't see how he beats out Joao Pedro, Delap, Wissa, or Strand Larsen as a cheap forward pick.

Although I said above that I'm nervous about picking any Manchester United players until Amorim's selections settle down, Amad Diallo was, for me, the one absolute stand-out of the weekend.

Fraser Forster also impressed on his debut in the Spurs goal - but he's not that cheap, and that defence is too weak to make him a very attractive pick, I fear; but perhaps he'll hit that sweet spot of having to make lots of saves but still occasionally picking up a clean sheet.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Luck-o-Meter (13)

 

Well, it looks as though Friday and Saturday passed off without any outrageous VAR screw-ups (for once)! But it seemed impossible to be optimistic that we'd also get through Sunday without something goinng amiss; and yet, remarkably, we did - at long last, a whole Gameweek free of any egregious refereeing howlers. I hope it doesn't prove to be a one-off event.... but it probably will be.

However, as I fretted the other day, the fixtures at this time of the year can get very unpredictable because of the crowded schedule and the inclement weather; so, perhaps that's going to be the major source of 'luck' in skewing FPL outcomes through December. We've already seen Brighton concede a surprise equaliser in a match they mostly dominated, Palace grab a last-gasp equaliser in game they didn't deserve to get anything out of against Newcastle, and Arsenal having a bizarre blip in the closing phase of the first half against West Ham, where they let them somehow claw back two goals (and nearly more)... in a game they had been looking set to win 8-0 or 10-0!! Long-time nearly man Kevin Schade suddenly coming up with a 'Striker of the Week' hattrick performance (even against hopeless Leicester) was also a bit of a turn-up for the books!!! As was Evanilson winning 3 penalties in a game - and Kluivert converting all 3 of them; both Premier League firsts - against Wolves. Not yet much improved Manchester United managing 4 goals - even against hopeless Everton - was also a bit of a surprise.

There's been another rash of goals from defenders this week: Gabriel, Kerkez (with a re-enactment of Michael Keane's scorcher from a couple of months back!), Munoz, Wann-Bissake (one of the least goalscoringest of all defenders - he's somehow doubled his career total within the space of five days!), and Emerson (who knew he could hit free-kicks like that??). It really feels like there have been far more goals from defenders than is typical this year (but that's a hard statistic to check!); I wonder why on earth that might be? The increased focus on set-piece routines might partly explain it; but a lot of these goals have been coming from open play as well.

And naturally, I am galled that Georginio Rutter, one of my 'Picks of the Week' for GW13, could have such an outstanding game (at least 3 superb goal attempts) without registering any FPL points.

I thought Southampton's Downes did appear to shove Joao Pedro in the face near the end of that game, so was very lucky not to be sent off. However, the dismay of the Beeb's pundits about the disallowing of Archer's apparent late winner there rather mystified me. Armstrong had made a run towards the near-post, taking a defender with him and dominating the attention of the keeper; he was clearly trying to get on the end of the cross, and even though he mistimed his run and got ahead of it, he did attempt to make contact - and very nearly did so -  albeit with an improvised heel-flick from behind him. So, by any reasonable interpretation of events, that's surely 'interfering with play' at least two or three times over! Southaampton can't really feel hard-done-by, since they hadn't done quite enough to deserve even one point, let alone all three.

Bournemouth's first penalty was a little soft - barely any contact at all from Toti (one of those, I feel, where if the referee hadn't given it, VAR would not have felt able to intervene). However, the other two were absolutely clearcut; and Sa was extremely lucky to escape a sending-off for completely wiping out Evanilson for the third one.

Both Isak and Summerville were the victims of those hair's-breadth offside calls I really don't like to see given.

Emi Martinez was rather hard-done-by,  I thought, to be deemed guilty of touching a back-pass. It's been so long since we last saw that rule implememted that I wasn't sure it hadn't been repealed. We see more obvious examples of this offence just about every week, and they always seem to be excused. Perhaps it was Pau Torres immediately looking guilty and worried about his touch that did for them?  It was a bad weekend for goalkeepers all around, with Fabianski being a little unlucky to have a penalty awarded against him merely for punching Gabriel in the side of the head! He did get a little bit of the ball as well, and again, goalkeepers missing a punch and wiping out an opposing player in the process is something we see going unpunished pretty frequently.

Villa fans might be a bit upset about Chelsea's first goal not being chalked off because of an allged foul by Cucurella in the build-up, but that was pretty obviously an accidental collision; if anything, Philogene was hanging his leg out trying to bring Cucurella down - and just happened to come out of the contact worse off. In general VAR this weekend did exactly what it was supposed to.

A few slightly questionable decisions then, but no huge errors for once. Not that many screamers of goals or unfortunate near misses either. And the results - if not quite the scorelines - all went exactly as one would have predicted; though Schade, Kluivert, Evanilson, Zirkzee and Rashford were all rather unexpected entries in the 'Team of the Week'.

Going forward, unpredictable player rotations are probably going to be major contributors to the 'luck' in FPL returns. One must particularly fear a desperate Pep, whose predicament with City is likely to drive him to even more obscure tactical tinkering and erratic team selection than usual. If even Gvardiol and Ederson are not sacred, even Haaland or DeBruyne might be the next to be omitted - and, for now, I would avoid all City players, for the uncertainty of their starts as much as their poor form.

Although the refereeing barely tipped the needle on the Luck-o-Meter this week, a few surprise omissions of players and unexpected goal scorers still just about gets the weekly score up to a 3 out 10.

Tempted AGAIN??

Just last week I warned that hazarding the PRECIOUS Triple Captain chip in a Gameweek straight after an international break was usually unwise, because of all the uncertainties of form and match outcome that follow from fatigue, availability problems, and lack of preparation after such a disruption of the usual club training schedule.

The same concerns apply even more strongly.... to the entire month of December.

The absurd fixture log-jam we land ourselves with over the holiday season - 7 Gameweeks in the next four weeks!! -  combined with the adverse impact of cold, wet weather (and perhaps even the shorter hours of daylight having a negative impact on some players' moods...?) means that:-

1)  Most players will get some 'rest rotation' at some point; but it's pretty much impossible to predict when. (Though we might imagine that older - and historically injury-prone - players like Chris Wood, Danny Welbeck, and Callum Wilson would be most likely to receive heavily rationed minutes.)  So, even if you can count on your favoured star performer - Salah, Palmer, Saka or whoever - starting every game, so long as they remain fit, you can't be at all sure who's going to be playing with them for each game, or how well their team is going to function around them.

2) All players, even the most superhumanly resilient of them, are going to suffer from some fatigue - mental, perhaps, as much as physical - during this onslaught of quickfire games; and it is very unlikely that anyone will maintain anything like their best form throughout the whole month.

3)   A higher rate of injuries is, alas, inevitable amidst this constant stress of over-exertion, reduced recovery time, and often bitterly cold playing conditions.

4)  Cold, wet, blustery weather also makes the game harder to play, and greatly increases the likelihood of mistakes.... which may lead to unexpected, against-the-run-of-play goals, and perhaps some topsy-turvy results.

5)  With the tight turnaround between so many of the games, and the more frequent changes in team selection, it's very difficult for managers to do adequate tactical preparation.

6)  And it's that time of year when things start to get really critical for the clubs struggling down at the bottom end of the table; and some of them may begin fighting that bit harder - and more effectively - to improve their position. Hence, 'upset results' could become a bit more common over the next few weeks than they have been so far.

All of this means that there is huge UNCERTAINTY about results over the coming month, even in games that look like they should be very one-sided match-ups. And moreover, it is very unlikely that any of our beloved star players will often be able to perform anywhere near their best, because of all these adverse circumstances around them. It is, I think, much better to wait until January or February to play the TC chip - no matter how inviting some of the December fixtures may appear.

[Of course, as soon as I've said this, Bukayo Saka goes and has a monster of a game against a predictably flakey West Ham! I can only say in my defence that this game was technically on the 30th November (although December had already started where I was watching the game from...). But the basic principle is still sound: results are much more unpredictable at this time of year. The early months of the New Year will offer bigger - and more reliable - opportunities to take advantage of your Triple Captain.]

Dilemmas of the Week - GW13

 

Every week, we need to take a long hard look at our squad, and ask ourselves if we want to make any changes....

And even if we do see a pressing case for a change here or there, we then need to weigh that against the possible advantage of saving our transfer - 'rolling' it over to use in a future week. This option achieves greater tactical complexity this season with the new rule that allows us to save up as many as 5 Free Transfers to use at one time. If we ever manage to do that, it would in effect be a 'mini Wildcard', enabling us to conduct a major squad overhaul in one fell swoop (particularly useful as there are a handful of 'premium' players who cost so much more than everyone else that you can't conveniently move them in and out of your squad without making multiple other changes as well).

Then, of course, occasionally multiple changes may seem so inescapable that we have to consider whether it's worth spending points on 1 or 2 extra transfers (a tactic which obviously deserves a whole post of its own one day).

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 13?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Gabriel had to come off with a problem against Sporting on Tuesday; but it's thought to be just a 'knock', and the man is a tank - so I'm keeping my fingers crossed he'll be OK for Saturday. Ditto, Konate, who also limped out of his Champions League game!

Conor Bradley pulled up with what looked like a hamstring problem near the end of that Real Madrid match; a great pity if he's going to be out for a while, after turning in a 'Man of the Match' display in this game. 

Bruno Guimaraes and Todibo both came off with problems in Monday night's EPL game. Their managers 'hope' they're not too seriously hurt, but Bruno looked to have a muscle strain, which I imagine will keep him out for at least one Gameweek, just for the sake of caution. His absence could be pretty devastating for Newcastle, who are struggling enough to find any consistency as it is. Although the imminent return of Kieran Trippier might lift their spirits a little.

Adam Lallana also appeared to pick up a serious hamstring problem in last week's game, which could be an even bigger blow to Southampton, for whom he has been the creative driving force so far.

And Harry Winks came off quite early in the game against Chelsea with what looked like a pulled muscle in the groin area. This is likely to have the biggest impact in FPL since - unfathomably - he was still owned by around 13% of managers.

Spurs keeper Vicario broke a bone in his ankle against City, and has needed surgery - looking set to be out until March at least. The Italian was not widely owned anyway (though by more people than I would have expected; he must have a large extended family!). However, this unfortunate accident is good news for the 0.3% who'd plumped for his back-up, Fraser Forster.

Ipswich full-back Ben Johnson, who apparently suffered a problem in training just before last week's game against Manchester United, seems set to miss at least one more game; as does Fulham's Joachim Andersen, who suffered a calf strain during the game against Wolves.

At Palace, Eze and Wharton appear to be very close to a return, but will probably only get short minutes, at best, this week.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Christian Norgaard got last weekend's red card overturned on appeal - rather to my surprise (I think it's probably correct to reprieve him; but I can see the incident could be argued both ways, and the FA is usually excessively keen both to protect goalkeepers and to stand by their referees). Brighton's Baleba didn't have the option to appeal, because he was sent off for a supposed (but non-existent) second yellow card offence, and so will miss this week's game.

Semenyo also has a one-game ban for collecting 5 yellow cards.

Tino Livramento is presumably at some risk of going back to the bench, if Trippier is finally ready to start again for Newcastle at right full-back. (It's unlikely he'll be swapped to the left at the expense of Lewis Hall, who has been outstanding in the last few games.)

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Marcus Rashford, despite getting the early breakthrough against Ipswich, was so bad for the rest of the game that he must be a near-certainty to be dropped. (If he gets a reprieve, I think he'll probably get a try-out as the left-sided '10' in Amorim's system, where both Garnacho and Zirkzee failed to impress.)

Kyle Walker and Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva and Ilkay Gundogan also looked very poor in City's shambolic performance against Spurs - but Pep can't drop all of them. I should think Walker is the likeliest omission. And Josko Gvardiol, who's having to do a ridiculous amount of running to try to firefight counter-attacks, is starting to look desperately in need of a rest.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

James Maddison produced one of the performances of the season last week against City; but, unfortunately, there are still some huge question-marks over his relationship with his manager and how far his starts or minutes can be relied upon. And Spurs's form yoyos so much, you have to fear that Fulham, Bournemouth and even Southampton could turn out to be tougher fixtures for them than Chelsea and Liverpool. Even if they can start to build some consistency (difficult, wihout their first-choice keeper, or, for another week or two at least, their two best centre-backs), it's a fairly tough December for them, so acquiring Maddison now looks like a bit of a gamble.

Matheus Cunha was also outstanding against Fulham. But I have a feeling his bubble may be about to burst.

Martin Odegaard was immediately hugely impressive on his return; but, while he has some appeal as a less-owned 'differential', he can't really supplant Bukayo Saka as the top attacking pick from Arsenal, and most people want to double up on their defence currently, which just leaves no room for him in an FPL squad, however good he is.

Amad Diallo was the one outstanding success of Ruben Amorim's opening match in charge at United. But it looks like there's going to be a long process of adjustment to his system of play, and possibly quite a lot of experimentation with selection. I doubt if anyone except Bruno Fernandes and Andre Onana can be relied upon as invariable starters for a while yet.

Ipswich's Liam Delap has been attracting warm praise for his recent performances. (Danny Murphy is, I think, the best of the Beeb's pundits, along with Ashley Williams; but his comparing of Delap to Harry Kane was probably straying too far into hyperbole!! But hey, we all stray into hyperbole from time to time: a year or two ago, I compared Evan Ferguson to a young[er] Haaland...)  I'm rather more intrigued about the FPL prospects for his midfield strike partner Sammie Szmodics.

However, my 'Picks of the Week' this time are Jurrien Timber and Georginio Rutter.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Picks of the Week (2)

 DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I thought I would start occasionally trying to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves'   (And some weeks, I'll have nothing.....)

In Gameweek 13 I'm most excited about Jurrien Timber. I always thought he could be a very tempting - cheaper - way to get some representation in the formidable Arsenal defence; but the start of his season was interrupted by a string of injuries. That record is still a bit of a worry for anyone thinking of acquiring him, but - it is time to be brave, I think. He's now started the last 4 games with no sign of a 'reaction'; and he has looked a bit of a monster in each of them - fast, strong, and very composed on the ball. The medium-term absence of Ben White now removes any serious threat of rotation. And the likelihood that he'll be starting on the right rather than the left means that he should be able to get involved in the attack a bit more, and have a few opportunities to provide an 'assist' for Saka or Odegaard. Although Arsenal's January schedule is looking a bit testing, their run up until the end of the year is very soft indeed. I am usually wary of doubling up in defence, but with the number of strong clean sheet prospects Arsenal face over the coming five weeks, there's a strong case for fielding both Gabriel (or Saliba, if you must) and Timber.

I also recommend Georginio Rutter of Brighton. His minutes have been a little short; but, on the plus side, that means Hurzeler is mostly 'rotating' his big squad with time off the bench rather than sharing starts around too much. Rutter has begun every game since GW3, and 2 goals and 4 assists in that time is a pretty good return for a bargain midfielder. And the 'eye test' recommends him even more highly than his numbers so far: like Palmer, he's one of those players you just can't take your eyes off - he looks super-sharp all the time, constantly switched-on, constantly eager and alert, constantly looking to get on the ball and make something happen. With the very favourable fixture run Brighton are now enjoying (they don't have a really tough game until mid-February - apart from their New Year fixture against Arsenal; and at least that's at home), I have a feeling he could be about to explode. He's only 1 point adrift of the the recently disappointing Semenyo and Rogers with 2 fewer games than them, and making a strong claim to displace them - or the lately even more suspect McNeil or Smith Rowe - from the budget midfielder slot. And at the moment, his ownership is still ridiculously low - only just over 1.5%!

And I'll throw in a third suggestion this week: Bart Verbruggen. I wasn't at all convinced by the Dutch keeper when he joined Brighton at the beginning of last year (but that may have been partly bitterness on my part, as I'd had Jason Steele in my initial squad for the season!). Like his countryman Flekken, he took some time to settle into the pace of the Premier League; and his adjustment was made harder by De Zerbi's perverse keeper rotation policy. But, unlike Flekken, he improved enormously, and gradually established his claim to be the preferred starter. This season, he's been doing a very solid job, impressively calm and unflappable. Brighton's inability to keep a clean sheet is a bit of a worry (only 1 so far), but they do seem to be getting a little stronger defensively, I think. He's well up in the top ten for 'saves', and has one of the best xGC delta numbers - nearly -3.5. He's saving Brighton a goal, and valuable points, every 3 or 4 games. The points tally might not yet reflect it, but on form he is pretty nearly the best keeper in the league at the moment. And Brighton have a lovely fixture run now; apart from Villa and Arsenal at the turn of the year, it's pretty much all soft games until the middle of February. Even they should be able to keep a few clean sheets during this spell, surely....

How did they do?

Well, Brighton suffered the curse of the evening kick-off in their Friday visit to Southampton: they dominated the game but couldn't quite put their chances away, and ended up losing narrowly. So, nothing for Verbruggen in my first week backing him (only a solitary save credited to him, and 2 goals conceded); but Rutter was very impressive, constantly looking to cause danger. Along with Mitoma, he was Brighton's best player on the night, and was unlucky not to convert one of 3 fantastic chances that he carved out single-handedly: one low shot inches wide of the post, a beautiful curler that smashed against the inside of the other post, and then a spectacular bicycle-kick which deflected wide off a defender. If he carries on in this form, he's looking likely to pick up a lot of goals.  

Rutter, alas, continued to disappoint: he was rested against Fulham in GW14, and only registered 'appearance points' in his next three outings. He's still looking lively - usually one of Brighton's best two or three players - but the team lost its way rather in December, suffering a dreadful slump in form; something that I don't think anyone saw coming.

I'm more embarrassed about Verbruggen, who really looked quite poor over the next 5 games, conceding 10 goals and not keeping any clean sheets, as Brighton crashed to 3-1 defeats to Fulham and Palace, and laboured to draws against relegation fodder Southampton, Leicester and West Ham. (I protest that I just threw him in as an afterthought, a possible one to watch rather than a primary recommendation.) His return of just 8 points over these 5 games was quite dismal.

Timber, on the other hand, is looking a solid recommendation. He got off to a disappointing start, being one of the few players not to claim a share of the goodies in the demolition of West Ham; and it was a bummer that Arsenal somehow managed to concede 2 goals in that game. Nonetheless, Timber is, as anticipated, now a nailed starter at full-back, usually on the right, and impressing every week. He picked up clean sheets in two of the next three matches, and also notched a goal and maximum bonus points against Manchester United. 24 points from 4 matches: not bad! Though I'm bummed that he again missed out on a share in the attacking points in the emphatic victory over Crystal Palace in GW17, and picked up a late booking too....

A little bit of Zen (18)

 

"A great many people think they are thinking when they are actually rearranging their prejudices."

William James

Sheep Picks (7)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Brazilian forward Matheus Cunha is certainly in the form of his life at Wolves just now. And after his two stunning goals (and an assist) in the unexpected demolition of Fulham last week, there's a fair old avalanche of FPL managers falling over themselves to buy him. He's now returned in 6 of his last 8 starts, and has a total of 7 goals and 3 assists for the season. People point to his exceptional talents, and to signs of a general uptick in form for Wolves, and a far more promising run of fixtures through to the end of the year (after their brutally difficult start to the campaign, which left them feeling unfortunate about being rooted to the bottom of the table).

He'd already become a very popular pick over the last month or so, but around 750,000 people have transferred him in this week, catapulting him to a massive 18.5% ownership.

Now, if I'd got Cunha in 3 or 4 weeks ago, I would be very pleased that I had; and I'd be quite happy to hang on to him for a while longer.

However, whether to acquire him now is a rather different question. I have a number of misgivings about that. In fact, I have a very strong hunch that the current enthusiasm for Cunha may evaporate quite soon - like the great Tulip Bubble in the 1630s.

Here are my reasons for doubt:

1)  Cunha, although he has been getting into advanced positions a lot more in recent games, apparently with the encouragement of his coach Gary O'Neill, is not the main goalscorer at the club; he's a support striker, mainly focused on trying to create space and provide service to the more conventional centre-forward, Strand Larsen. I therefore suspect that this rush of goalscoring from him is just a blip, and that in the longer-term we are likely to see more assists than goals from him. That could still add up to some very handy returns; but perhaps not enough to satisfy the greedy expectations of those who are currently buying him for FPL.

2) The sudden rush for him now does smack a bit of the classic FPL vice of 'chasing last week's points', foolishly hoping that because he just got a huge haul in the last gameweek, it's going to happen again this week. In fact, of course, very few players manage to produce a really big return in successive weeks, or even twice within a month. So, in fact, Cunha is statistically quite likely to have one or two relatively disappointing gameweeks now. (Moreover, the mantle of being the 'Week's Most Transferred-In Player' is itself a bit of a hoodoo in FPL; 8 or 9 times out of 10, the bearer of this dubious accolade produces a 'blank'.)

3)  He did suffer quite a lot of injuries last season, so there's a high anxiety now about how long he can hold up physically. This fear might be compounded slightly by the prevalent suspicion that South American players - the more elegant creative types, anyway - tend not to bear up well under the stresses of an English winter (although I feel this was probably more of a '90s trope, and has much less validity today).

4)  Wolves are at the bottom end of the table for a reason; it hasn't been just bad luck with their early fixtures. They have been absolutely dreadful defensively; and this means that they're not enjoying much controlled possession in games; and often are already behind and rather desperately chasing a result even when they do get some good possession. These are not conducive circumstances for regular returns from your strikers. And Wolves haven't really yet shown any evidence of a fundamantal shift in performance: their less-bad form of recent games could evaporate again at any moment.

5)  Given the multiple deficiencies of the team as a whole, I find it hard to get too optimistic about the supposedly favourable fixture run they're in. Frankly, a team this bad doesn't have any 'good' fixtures. There are only 4 or 5 teams poor enough to finish below them; and even these will be tough opponents, because those games will all be crucial relegation 'six-pointers'. And Wolves's fixtures lurch again soon, from perhaps-not-that-challenging for the next few weeks to absolutely abysmal from late December... right on all the way through January and February. I will be very surprised if Wolves aren't nailed to the bottom of the table again, and perhaps fallen a little out of the touch with those above them, by late February. And that, in turn, means that they'll probably be going through the turmoil of a change of manager at some point in the next couple of months.

6)  Cunha's price has now shot up from his opening 6.5 million to 7.0 million - which means he's no longer cheap. And I pointed out at the start of the season that the mid-price forwards really aren't very attractive this year, because there are so many excellent options who cost only between 5.5 and 6.5 million.

If you already have Jackson (or Isak or Watkins.... or, of course, Haaland) as a more premium selection to lead your attack, and any two (or any three) from the so-far excellent Wood, Welbeck, Joao Pedro, Delap, Wissa... why would you spend a transfer on replacing one of these with Cunha, who looks like he'll have, at best, another 5 or 6 games of promising scoring opportunities before another LONG run of misery for Wolves? Jackson, Isak, Watkins, Joao Pedro, and Wood certainly all look better picks for the long-term - because, even if they're not better players, they play in much, much better teams where they have super-talented creative teammates (Palmer and Neto; Gordon and Guimaraes; Bailey and Rogers; Mitoma and Rutter; Gibbs-White and Hudson-Odoi) who are constantly helping to generate chances for them. Cunha is pretty much having to do everything on his own.

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

Although I'm not American, I do have many American friends, and through them I have come to embrace Thanksgiving Day as my favourite holiday of the year! (Slightly less protracted than Christmas, and without the unwelcome additional stress of gift exchange or - for me - obligatory family socialising! But with all the good bits ramped up to the max: eating and drinking prodigiously with good friends. And I love turkey; rarely get to eat it any other time of the year!)

Now, I don't currently have many (any?!) regular readers on this fledgeling blog (I know, nobody reads long-form content any more in this smartphone age....); but, just in case anyone should happen here by chance in the next few days, I send you all my best wishes.

Reflecting for a moment on what I have to be grateful for in Fantasy Premier League... I am initially a bit stumped for inspiration! I'm having my worst start to a season ever!! But then it has been a weird season so far, with a lot of upset results, yo-yo-ing form, and freakisly low-scoring gameweeks! At least I can console myself that things are slowly getting better....

And I've finally been able to afford to get Saka in! I'm pretty chuffed about that.

Best wishes to ALL for a great start to the 'holiday season'!!