Luck-o-Meter (13)

 

Well, it looks as though Friday and Saturday passed off without any outrageous VAR screw-ups (for once)! But it seemed impossible to be optimistic that we'd also get through Sunday without something goinng amiss; and yet, remarkably, we did - at long last, a whole Gameweek free of any egregious refereeing howlers. I hope it doesn't prove to be a one-off event.... but it probably will be.

However, as I fretted the other day, the fixtures at this time of the year can get very unpredictable because of the crowded schedule and the inclement weather; so, perhaps that's going to be the major source of 'luck' in skewing FPL outcomes through December. We've already seen Brighton concede a surprise equaliser in a match they mostly dominated, Palace grab a last-gasp equaliser in game they didn't deserve to get anything out of against Newcastle, and Arsenal having a bizarre blip in the closing phase of the first half against West Ham, where they let them somehow claw back two goals (and nearly more)... in a game they had been looking set to win 8-0 or 10-0!! Long-time nearly man Kevin Schade suddenly coming up with a 'Striker of the Week' hattrick performance (even against hopeless Leicester) was also a bit of a turn-up for the books!!! As was Evanilson winning 3 penalties in a game - and Kluivert converting all 3 of them; both Premier League firsts - against Wolves. Not yet much improved Manchester United managing 4 goals - even against hopeless Everton - was also a bit of a surprise.

There's been another rash of goals from defenders this week: Gabriel, Kerkez (with a re-enactment of Michael Keane's scorcher from a couple of months back!), Munoz, Wann-Bissake (one of the least goalscoringest of all defenders - he's somehow doubled his career total within the space of five days!), and Emerson (who knew he could hit free-kicks like that??). It really feels like there have been far more goals from defenders than is typical this year (but that's a hard statistic to check!); I wonder why on earth that might be? The increased focus on set-piece routines might partly explain it; but a lot of these goals have been coming from open play as well.

And naturally, I am galled that Georginio Rutter, one of my 'Picks of the Week' for GW13, could have such an outstanding game (at least 3 superb goal attempts) without registering any FPL points.

I thought Southampton's Downes did appear to shove Joao Pedro in the face near the end of that game, so was very lucky not to be sent off. However, the dismay of the Beeb's pundits about the disallowing of Archer's apparent late winner there rather mystified me. Armstrong had made a run towards the near-post, taking a defender with him and dominating the attention of the keeper; he was clearly trying to get on the end of the cross, and even though he mistimed his run and got ahead of it, he did attempt to make contact - and very nearly did so -  albeit with an improvised heel-flick from behind him. So, by any reasonable interpretation of events, that's surely 'interfering with play' at least two or three times over! Southaampton can't really feel hard-done-by, since they hadn't done quite enough to deserve even one point, let alone all three.

Bournemouth's first penalty was a little soft - barely any contact at all from Toti (one of those, I feel, where if the referee hadn't given it, VAR would not have felt able to intervene). However, the other two were absolutely clearcut; and Sa was extremely lucky to escape a sending-off for completely wiping out Evanilson for the third one.

Both Isak and Summerville were the victims of those hair's-breadth offside calls I really don't like to see given.

Emi Martinez was rather hard-done-by,  I thought, to be deemed guilty of touching a back-pass. It's been so long since we last saw that rule implememted that I wasn't sure it hadn't been repealed. We see more obvious examples of this offence just about every week, and they always seem to be excused. Perhaps it was Pau Torres immediately looking guilty and worried about his touch that did for them?  It was a bad weekend for goalkeepers all around, with Fabianski being a little unlucky to have a penalty awarded against him merely for punching Gabriel in the side of the head! He did get a little bit of the ball as well, and again, goalkeepers missing a punch and wiping out an opposing player in the process is something we see going unpunished pretty frequently.

Villa fans might be a bit upset about Chelsea's first goal not being chalked off because of an allged foul by Cucurella in the build-up, but that was pretty obviously an accidental collision; if anything, Philogene was hanging his leg out trying to bring Cucurella down - and just happened to come out of the contact worse off. In general VAR this weekend did exactly what it was supposed to.

A few slightly questionable decisions then, but no huge errors for once. Not that many screamers of goals or unfortunate near misses either. And the results - if not quite the scorelines - all went exactly as one would have predicted; though Schade, Kluivert, Evanilson, Zirkzee and Rashford were all rather unexpected entries in the 'Team of the Week'.

Going forward, unpredictable player rotations are probably going to be major contributors to the 'luck' in FPL returns. One must particularly fear a desperate Pep, whose predicament with City is likely to drive him to even more obscure tactical tinkering and erratic team selection than usual. If even Gvardiol and Ederson are not sacred, even Haaland or DeBruyne might be the next to be omitted - and, for now, I would avoid all City players, for the uncertainty of their starts as much as their poor form.

Although the refereeing barely tipped the needle on the Luck-o-Meter this week, a few surprise omissions of players and unexpected goal scorers still just about gets the weekly score up to a 3 out 10.