Luck-o-Meter (14)

Ipswich were strangely flat, in what was really looking like a 'must-win' home game for them (well, they're already at the point where all of their games against other bottom-half teams are must-win); but they did have a few close-calls, including one effort bundled against the post in the closing seconds. Palace seem to be finally getting their game together in defence, and are starting to produce an attacking threat again with Eze and Mateta returning to something like their best form. In a tight and unspectacular game, a draw would probably have been a fairer result, but - at least as far as we could see on brief highlights - there were no officiating injustices in this one.

Vardy's opening goal against West Ham suffered a bizarrely poor initial call by the linesman: the Leicester striker had checked back onside and the retreating defender had stretched his rear leg way out, meaning that when Vardy began his run again as the ball was played through, he was well onside - easy to see with the naked eye; at least VAR put that one right. After that, it was one-way traffic for a while the other way, with Hermansen registering a remakable 7 saves across the game (although Fabianski's tip-over of Ndidi's powerful header was probably the best save of the game) and Coady blocking one effort on the line.... But the Ipswich keeper got very lucky when Soucek's close-range header was ruled out for the mildest of 'backing in' on him. West Ham seem to feel generally aggrieved that they came away with nothing from a game where they generated a huge number of attempts on goal; but the bottom line is, their finishing was terrible. And their defending was terrible too; on the highlights, anyway, this really didn't feel like a game they dominated or controlled, even if they did have the great majority of possession - because Leicester kept looking likely to mount a breakaway, and looked likely to pick up a goal every time they did.

While Arsenal were glad to see Partey make a quick return from injury, they were without Gabriel and Calafiori, having to rely on Kiwior and Zinchenko instead; but it didn't seem to do them too much harm. But in a tight game, it was their threat from corners that proved decisive - with two goals from defenders: one from never-scored-before Timber (yes, he was one of my recommendations last week; but I'll never try to take credit for a defender scoring a goal - you buy them for their clean sheets and assists potential) and one off Saliba's bum (still, they all count...). Anyone who's backed Manchester United players in hopes of an immediate 'Amorim Bounce' is left ruing not so much the lacklustre overall performance as the extreme number of rotations; I can see wanting to ration minutes in this super-busy phase of the season, and wanting to give everyone a try-out, but making so many changes for such an important game - and leaving the two players who were most impressive at the weekend, Diallo and Zirkzee, out of the starting lineup - seemed a tad self-destructive. Onana, in particular, seems a bit discombulated by the constant switches in his back-three, and was not at all his usual commanding self at set-pieces. So, some selection surprises and two unusual goalscorers here, but - thank heavens - no refereeing controversies.

Are Villa back? Well, maybe. The midfield looked a lot more solid with Kamara returned to hold things together, and Rogers pushing forward into much more advanced positions than usual (if he could maintain a strike-rate of a goal in every 4 or 5 games, he might yet prove me 'wrong' about him - though, note, I always said I thought he might be capable of producing a decent FPL tally, I just didn't feel he was showing much likelihood of it so far this season; and I still don't feel he's the most promising of the sub-6-million midfield picks). It was a weak-ish penalty from Watkins, and Flekken, after getting a good hand on it, really should have kept it out. It was also a rather soft call in the first place; and, even more troublingly, VAR only seemed to show one view of the incident; from behind the goal-line, looking towards the advancing players - so just you couldn't see Pinnock's alleged contact on Watkins's trailing heel. VAR should not be participating in any decisions of this nature if they haven't got a definitive TV view available to them; and, in this case, it appeared that they did not.

In the big relegation match-up at Goodison, Everton - perhaps slightly surprisingly? probably not, really - came out comfortably on top. Apart from one decent effort from Cunha early on, well saved by Pickford, Wolves were rarely in the game. And they gifted Everton a dream start by misaligning their defensive wall to allow Ashley Young a soft opener direct from a free-kick. Mykolenko notched his first assist of the season; Mangala, with a screamer from the edge of the box, was also a most unexpected goalscorer (in only his sixth start of the season); and poor Craig Dawson managed to put in 2 own-goals (when was the last time that happened?). Everton could easily have won even more emphatically - with Tarkowski's headed goal beng ruled out for an alleged 'subjective offside' by a teammate (these decisions almost always seem contentious at best, downright unjust at worst; but here it was merely baffling, as the VAR replays shown on the Beeb did not feature any Everton players anywhere near an offside position, so there did not appear to be any 'subjective' issue to resolve!), and later the referee again (as at Ipswich) over-protecting the keeper in denying an effort by Ndiaye after Sa play-acted that he'd been flattened by a mundane 50-50 contact with Calvert-Lewin (I'd like to see goalkeepers starting to get booked for 'simulation' once in a while; I really saw nothing in this at all). This unexpectedly robust home performance has probably saved Sean Dyche's job for at least another week or two; while the - frankly, expectedly - dismal showing from Wolves has probably sealed Gary O'Neill's fate. Although Julen Lopategui and Russell Martin must surely also be strong contenders for a sacking before Christmas.

Are City back?? Well, certainly well on the way - with Dias, Doku, and Grealish all playing a full part again, and, most of all, the great Kevin DeBruyne (although apparently he's still struggling a little bit with a hernia?), this was something like the City of old; 3 stunning goals.... and a couple of near-misses from Gvardiol. However, they needed a superb stop by Ortega from Gibbs-White and the very rare phenomenon of Chris Wood failing to convert a one-on-one to keep them on track, and secure a clean sheet that didn't feel quite deserved..

Newcastle v Liverpool was an old-school thriller! Liverpool's defence inevitably looks much less invulnerable with Quansah and Gomez (who always looks to me like an accident-waiting-to-happen, especially when he's in the central areas; and last night, those 'accidents' happened at least twice!). And here, even Van Dijk was somewhat below his usual imperious best, and the so far immaculate Kelleher made a bizarre error of judgement to allow Newcastle a late equaliser. Liverpool also needed an awful lot of help from the officials, with Van Dijk clearly deserving a sending-off for barging Gordon in the face (a wanton piece of off-the-ball thuggery, most untypical for him; the sheer gratuitousness of it, and the fact that when such a big man puts most of his considerable weight behind a shoulder into the cheekbone, it can do a lot of damage - well, for me, that certainly makes it a straight-red incident, and deserving of an extended ban too); Isak had a pretty clear penalty turned down when Quansah tripped him on the edge of the box; and then, as a final insult, referee Andy Madley blew the whistle for the end of the game when Newcastle had Liverpool outnumbered on a quick counter-attack; it has long been a convention - if not perhaps clearly formulated in the rules - that you don't time the game to the second when a team clearly has a goal-scoring chance imminent, but let it continue a short while to allow the current move to play out. Whatever's happened to that??  Gosh, there were loads of near-misses in this one too, with Macallister, Gordon, and Salah all smashing the woodwork. This one game, alas, probably gets the old Luck-o-Meter well into the upper half of its scale....

Southampton predictablly got steamrollered by Chelsea, who were not noticeably weakened by their multiiple changes to the line-up - although some FPL managers will no doubt be much aggrieved by the 'rest' given to Jackson and Sanchez (I wonder if Jorgensen's promotion in goal might prove permanent; it is one I have been lobbying for since the start of the season, and Sanchez has increasingly looked like the weak link in the side over the past month or two); Palmer not having many chances (the only major one well saved by Lumley) was also a bit of a disappointment, but at least he got to bundle one home just before he was taken off with 12 minutes left. Southampton's Stephens suffered an inevitable red card for a minor tug on Curcurella's flamboyant hair (not nearly so egregious as Cristian Romero's assault on the same player's frizzy locks a couple of years ago, which bizarrely went unpunished!).

Brighton, I thought, looked a little unlucky to get beaten, and certainly to get beaten 3-1. They had some good chances, but somehow weren't quite as clinical in the final third as they usually are, and Leno produced a few smart saves when he needed to; while Iwobi, who hasn't done an awful lot so far this season, suddenly came up with a couple of firecrackers (and was probably angling to try and claim the middle one, where his mere presence in the six-yard box so discombobulated the opposition at a corner-kick that two of the defenders contrived to deflect the ball into their own net - a goal so freakish that, on its own, it counts as quite a high incidence of 'luck'!!), At the other end, by contrast, Verbruggen had an absolute stinker, giving away the lead with a diabolical pass straight to Iwobi at the edge of the box, then failing to do anything to try to part the ruck of players in front of him at the near post when Fulham went ahead again with the multiple ricochet corner (I really feel that a goalkeeper has to at least make a show of trying to come to claim those, making players afraid to stand in his path - even if that means laying out one or two of his own players with a well-aimed elbow!), and for the third, Iwobi's neat little curler, yes, he was a bit unsighted on it - but he was nevertheless, surely, just a little bit too far over towards his near post and just a little bit slow to react. (I had a feeling I was probably going to jinx the poor devil when I made him a supplementary 'Pick of the Week' last week....)

Spurs also seemed a bit unfortunate not to get something in the game, although Bournemouth did have more and better attacks, and only another solid performance from Forster between the sticks kept down the margin of defeat. [Again, the micro-highlights available on Youtube did not reveal any questionable refereeing in these two matches, and I haven't yet seen anything in early match reports. But I bet there was something....]

So, there were quite a few cracking goals, and cracking saves this week; and a fair few less expected goalscorers - Khannouss, Fullkrug, Young, Mangala, Disasi, Aribo, Madueke, Sancho, Timber, Saliba, Cash, Iwobi, Baleba, Huijsen (!!),,,, yep, way more than usual! The 'Team of the Week' finds itself lined up in the preposterous 4-5-1 formation - with Watkins as centre-forward! - and probably only Salah and Saliba (and maybe Watkins...?) are the only members with ownership above a few percent; heck above 1 percent! And good heavens, even points-anti-magnet Dom Calvert-Lewin somehow managed to get himself credited for an assist this week! These random goal heroes exacerbated the effects of all the unpredictable rest rotations, leaving many FPL managers struggling to put out a full eleven, even if they had a decent bench to call upon. And I have found it conspicuous how many of the leading teams for the week that I've looked at are.... actually really bad. for any other week. That's how it goes sometimes; it can be really galling, but we must learn to let it go.

So, the randomness of the play - and the team selections! - in this Gameweek would get it well above half-way on the 'Luck' scale already; but then the large number of dodgy decisions (a few goals disallowed for very tight offsides - even if they were 'correct' decisions, we don't like to see goals denied for such small margins, and such almost-too-close-to-call incidents are in themselves significant instances of 'luck'; another - Tarkowski's header against Wolves - chalked off for a non-existent 'offside' by somebody else; and two more disallowed for illusory 'fouls' on the goalkeeper; only two penalties, as far as I can recalll, but both - one given, one not given - probably wrong; and then that string of poor calls in the Newcastle v Liverpool match, most unquestionable and damaging of which was the failure to send off Virgil Van Dijk for a clear assault on Anthony Gordon.... just because of his godlike 'aura'??) boosts it to an 8 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter, I'm afraid. And even that's probably a slightly conservative rating.

[Yes, this post has ended up being a good bit longer than most in the series. I fear I have unconscioiusly blended it with my former series of mini-analyses of all the individual matches, which I decided last week I'd have to discontinue because I was finding it too time-consuming. I don't know if it might be feasible to continue to combine the former two strands of the blog like this here in 'Luck-o-Meter'... Probably not. But for this week, at least, it seemed appropriate to go into a little more detail about the individual games because unexpected rotations, returns from injury, shifts in form, and surprisingly good or bad performances from individuals did seem to be the major factors both in team performance and result.... and how lucky I felt the results were. This probably won't always be the case.]