Luck-o-Meter (9)

 

Vardy fell a little too spectacularly, under light contact - but that did look like a penalty to me. How was there not enough in it for VAR not to suggest a second look?? And then Hudson-Odoi hit the screamer of the week - straight against the post! Early twitches of the Luck-o-Meter needle immediately in the Friday evening game...

The disallowing of Villa's first goal seemed a crazy VAR decision to me. You really want these decisions to go the attacking side's way if there's any 'element of doubt'; and this certainly didn't seem like a 'clear and obvious error' in the original on-pitch decision for VAR to overrule. I'm not even sure of the definition of 'ball in play' in the rules these days (I'm not confident the rule is clearly and sensibly written; so many of them now seem not to be!); but if we're following the example of tennis, where the outside edge of the ball touching the line is still regarded as being 'in play', then it really looked like Watkins had retrieved the ball just in time. There certainly wasn't any clear daylight between the ball and the line. (And the stills shown on TV appeared to be either side of the moment the ball would have been at its furthest over the line; this is another problem with trying to make decisions this tight - a 24-per-second framerate on video footage is often not going to give you a precise enough picture of what happened. And then there are problems with pixel-size/screen resolution, parallax distortions, optical illusions [the bright whiteness of the pitch markings can make them seem larger... and the ball smaller!],... and the fact that the shape of the ball changes when it's kicked or bounces or is rolling quickly... If the the ball's not clearly out of play, it's not out! As with off-sides, it's impossible to judge these things to the millimetre - and it's foolish to try.)

The denial of a penalty for Cash's challenge on Semenyo was also an egregiously poor decision (compounded by the fact the referee chose to penalise Semenyo for 'simulation'), and really one where VAR should have intervened to recommend a second look. Chris Kavanagh clearly thought that Cash had got his toe to the ball and/or that he had made no contact with Semenyo; but both of those assumptions were plainly wrong. Yes, of course Semenyo was 'looking for' the foul, dragging his foot - but a forward's entitled to do that; there was contact, it was enough to bring him down: penalty. And then, damn, there was a second one when a high ball dropped on to Bailey's arm in the penalty area. Yes, he was 'looking away from the ball' - but he knew exactly where it was falling, and could have moved his arm to avoid the chance of touching it... rather than moving it the other way, to bat the ball out of the penalty area. I don't usually like to see penalties given for handball - but this was another clear penalty. 

Brentford's penalty felt like the right decision. But it was a very contentious one: we've so often seen those long tussles adjudged not-penalties because the contact started before the players entered the box (Saka had a good shout turned down for that early in the season). And again it seemed rather weird that on this point, VAR felt able to adjudicate directly, without inviting the referee to take another look. What exactly are the protocols?? And Clarke's sending-off with a second yellow? Ridiculous: he clearly played the ball. But VAR apparently can't interfere in those?? Why not?? A sending-off is a sending-off: it's a huge, game-changing event. In fact, it really ought not to be difficult for VAR to make an almost-immediate judgement on every yellow card, if the referee has clearly thought there was contact with a player, when there wasn't (or no contact with the ball, when there was). And Delap hit a post right at the death!

It was unfortunate to see yellow cards for Flynn Downes and Russell Martin for complaining about a 'foul' award that plainly wasn't a foul. Doesn't have much of an impact on game outcome or FPL returns, but it's still an injustice, and a worrying example of how bad our refereeing can often be.

That crazy turnaround in the dying seconds at Brighton has to be considered a major luck-quake too: two turnovers within a few seconds, a four-on-one overload on the edge of the penalty area not being converted; then a swift break up the other end, a soft shot, big deflection, keeper watches it loop in off the underside of the bar.... Not an everyday occurrence!

We also had the bizarre FA decision to belatedly award Wissa a second goal. And although the FPL rules appear to be quite unequivocal that no points changes will be implemented after the end of a Gameweek, they apparently allow themselves to ignore that principle 'in exceptional circumstances', and might do so here. Now, I don't really begrudge Wissa owners such a windfall (no, I do....), but it just seems a bonkers decision on two levels: a) it clearly wasn't Wissa's goal; and b) if the FA is going to take so long to revise an attribution like this, it ought to fall outside of FPL relevance - since we really need to know definite scores by the end of each gameweek. The occasional 'injustice' must be suffered in this game; it's much better than having constant uncertainty about points and rankings... and how the rules are even going to be applied.

The offside against Calvert-Lewin looked very, very tight; and it took a long time to decide. And I didn't see VAR producing their 'drawing the lines' graphic - why not? The two stills widely shown on later TV coverage gave a very different impression of whether he was onside or not (my initial impression when watching the game was that he looked safe by a good 6 inches or so....). If that goal had been given, the whole course of the match, and perhaps the final result, could have been transformed.

Palmer having a fine early goal ruled out for a marginal offside was a bitter pill. And you really feel he ought to qualify for discretionary additional bonus points for his absolutely sublime pre-assist for Jackson's goal. Isak's equaliser was a very, very, very tight offside call - and I was rather surprised it went in his favour. Neto's powerful header against the post, and Isak uncharacteristically fluffing his chance after rather too easily walking the ball around Sanchez might also have been turning points in a tight match.

Spurs undoubtedly had a moment of bad luck when Johnson's instinctive flick-on crashed against the post, and then somehow didn't ricochet in off Henderson. But they had a huge moment of good luck when Van de Ven somehow escaped a red card for bundling Sarr over when he was clear through on goal. It was much worse than Saliba's offence last week; what we want here, above all, dear PGMOL, is some consistency. The argument that the Palace man was running towards the corner was nonsense: he was only at a very slight angle to the straight path to the goal line, and could easily have cut back inside again once clear of the chasing defender. He was closer to the goal than in similar incidents we've seen recently, and there was no other Spurs player anywhere near him - so, it was in fact a much more clearcut 'goalscoring opportunity' than the Saliba incident, or any other similar one I can recall this season.

Garnacho smashing one against the woodwork, Fabianski's fingertip save of Casemiro's angled header, and, most tauntingly of all, Dalot blazing over the top of an empty goal after easily getting past Fabianski in the first half could have turned that West Ham match - and possibly the whole course of United's future - around. And I cannot understand how David Coutt reversed his original no-penalty decision when the pitchside review clearly showed that Danny Ings had been kicked by his own teammate... That was one of the worst of the many dire penalty decisions we've seen this season! (And then Onana very nearly saved it... You have to feel for Erik a little bit.)

Virgil van Dijk was very lucky not to get himself sent off for a bit of needless argey-bargey with Havertz early on - appearing to flick both an elbow and a foot (twice) at the irritating German. We've seen much less aggressive movements interpreted as 'violent conduct' in the past. And Arsenal can feel even more rightly aggrieved about having their late 'winner' chalked off because of Anthony Taylor's unfathomable decision to whistle for a non-foul against Szoboszlai. Even if you feel that these were correct calls, or forgivable errors, to have two such big points of contention in the biggest match of the week is unfortunate.... and a heavy swing on the Luck-o-Meter. And, while I feel it was probably the 'right' decision under the current ridiculous formulations of the rules (but also, in this case, for the good of the game - since we never really want to see good goals ruled out for minimal 'offsides'), I was irritated by the huge delay in evaluating the possible offside against Merino for Arsenal's second goal; all of this trying to identify whose toe is nearer to the goal-line in a crowded box is just ridiculous - if the attacking player's torso is not clearly behind all of the defending team's torsos.... it's not offisde. That's what the rule used to be: it was easy to understand and to implement, and could almost always be judged accurately with the naked eye. Can we please go back to those innocent times??

There was no spate of wonder-goals, or near-misses, or shots hitting the post (some, but not nearly as many as some recent weeks); and while there were some outstanding goalkeeping performances, perhaps not so many spectacular saves either, overall. And there were no big upset results (except, perhaps, Palace nicking a win off Spurs). And most of the big names returned some points this time. So, not a lot of 'luck' in the expectedness or otherwise of general results and points-hauls - although.... the 'Team of the Week' includes Casemiro, Chalobah, Iwobi, Wissa, and George Hirst (who??), who were probably owned by just about no-one.

This didn't seem like such a terrible week for refereeing on the whole, nor were there a lot of unexpected events or particularly stupendous pieces of individual skill; so, we might have been heading for quite a modest Luck-o-Meter score. But the two penalties not given against Villa, and the AWFUL decision to award one against Manchester United push this week's score up to a.... well, I'm tempted to say 8, but I'll go with 7 out of 10, since there were relatively few other instances of unusual luck this week.

GW9 - What did we learn?

 

Vardy is probably his own worst enemy, for going down so often and so easily in the penalty area - but his shout for a penalty against Forest on Friday night looked like it was at least worth a second a look. I keep thinking Chris Wood's streak must surely end soon, but then he comes up with another couple of excellent finishes. If he can keep this up, he is going to be in the hat with Haaland and Jackson (and Watkins... and Welbeck...?!) for the Golden Boot at the end of the year - fairytale stuff! Both keepers had great games in this one. But yes, a gap in class is emerging: for the last two seasons, Forest looked like they really deserved to be relegated; they no longer do. Leicester, however..... (Sorry, Gary Lineker.)

Bournemouth's last-gasp winner felt deserved on the balance of play, for me. In fact, they can probably count themselves unfortunate that they didn't win, after having two strong penalty shouts waved away. And back-up keeper Mark Travers played a bit of a blinder. (I doubt if it was enough to keep him the start if Kepa is soon fit again; but it will cause a little anxiety to anyone who owns Kepa in FPL.)  Villa were perhaps a little heavy-legged after their midweek exertions against Bologna; but, for me, they just haven't yet recaptured the verve they were showing for so much of last season, and despite their current high league standing, I'm doubtful they'll claim a Champions League place again. The absurdly popular Morgan Rogers had a fairly subdued game, and was pulled off only 10 minutes into the second half; I wonder if that will trigger a big sell-off. (Well, not huge so far: but he had dropped over 100,000 owners by the following Friday.)

Brentford v Ipswich was a crazily entertaining game: it often felt as though a goal was likely every time a team started to break towards the opposition end. This is what happens when you have two teams who can't defend to save their lives at the moment; and the two worst keepers in the league (OK, they both pulled off a couple of very good saves; but they also had many, many horrible moments, and filled the defence in front of them with anxiety; I really think they're both ripe to be dropped). And then Liam Delap crashed one against the far post in the dying seconds?!  Crazy game! A 3-3 or 4-4 draw would have been a fairer result. I had thought Ipswich had the talent and the manager to survive their debut season with a certain amount of comfort, but it is not turning out like that at all; and McKenna is starting to look a bit harried and desperate, like he doesn't know how to fix things. And if Brentford keep leaking goals like this, they'll be in the relegation conversation too.

It was great to see Evan Ferguson playing and scoring again at last, after a long string of injury problems. I wonder if he might now be entering the crowded field of very tempting budget forward picks?! I hate to say this, but Welbeck is surely bound to succumb to an injury again sooner or later. And when Ferguson's on song, I really think he's one of the best finishers in the league, and has a lot about his game that is reminiscent of Haaland - a kind of Erling Mini-Me. And what a ridiculous end to the game - Brighton nicking the ball in the dying moments and finding themselves four-on-one, surely certain to claim a third goal to seal their victory.... and Wieffer somehow misplaces his pass to the sole Wolves defender, Tommy Doyle, who gratefully punts it upfield for a counter-attack that improbably results in a last-gasp equaliser. Brighton, for all their attacking flair, have looked very vulnerable on the counter this year; and I think that is going to make it a struggle for them to bag a place in European competition. Wolves, with Cunha looking particularly lively, may find this remarkable (and probably not really deserved) comeback the inspiration they need to start turning things around. They do have a much kinder run of fixtures ahead now, but.... they are in very deep trouble.

Russell Martin's Southampton have always looked potentially dangerous going forward (they need a better striker), but they appear to be finding some defensive rigour as well now. And Adam Lallana was absolutely outstanding for them. If they carry on like this, they might yet emerge as the one-in-three survivors amongst this year's promoted sides. I had an inkling that they would show up at The Etihad with a top performance, and was trying to discourage The Sheep this week from hazarding their Triple Captain chip on Haaland. Now, of course, there's an unreasonable backlash against Haaland because he only scored one....  Some people are never satisfied. A couple of worrying things I noticed in this game, though, were Kovacic repeatedly being blindsided by Lallana or another Southampton player breaking in behind him (while he might bring some attractive attacking elements to City's game, he is a very poor replacement for Rodri as a central defensive lychpin) and Foden looking frustrated with his teammates, waving his arms around frantically as they repeatedly ignored him for a cutback (I wonder if they've just forgotten how to play with him, because he's been frozen out for so much of this season; or if he's had some kind of dressing-room falling-out).

Everton deserve credit for battling to the end, in a game they never really looked to be in. Smith Rowe's owners will probably have taken some encouragement from his lively and varied performance in this one: he was head-to-head with his main FPL-rival-pick Dwight McNeil, and - probably to most people's surprise - came out of it on top, ir only fairly narrowly. The game might perhaps have gone differently if Calvert-Lewin's early goal had not been disallowed; that was (yet another decision) that looked harsh to the lay viewer - and took far too long to reach.

Chelsea v Newcastle was as open and entertaining as we might have expected. Palmer's early goal being 'offiside' by a kneecap was a hard blow for his FPL owners. He's really had rotten luck so far this year (so many near misses, so many assists to teammates not converted, so many penalties not given...): he could easily have nearly twice his current massive total - frightening thought! But at least we saw an appropriate VAR intervention here, with Simon Hooper being given the opportunity to walk back his silly decision to award a penalty for Nkunku's slipping over in the box. Newcastle continue to be so-near-and-yet-so-far-away.... not playing terribly, and yet just not bossing games or putting away their chances as they did for so much of the last two seasons.

It was nice to see Palace back to winning ways. I've often felt they have not been too far off it so far this season, and have possibly been the unluckiest team of the season so far (Chelsea and Bournemouth have strong claims also); and but for a trio of smart saves from Vicario, they might have won this much more comfortably. Though, more importantly for Glasner, they were finally starting to show some of last season's defensive cohesion again, as well as some more coordinated and effective pressing in the final third; that's what they need to get back up to mid-table. It's good as well to see Jean-Philippe Mateta looking sharp and hungry and happy again; it's taken a long time for him to shake off the effects of the injury problem he picked up at the Olympics, but now he looks as though he might be about to recover the form he showed at the end of last season. I've also often felt that Spurs, despite their promising start, have felt like merely a good mid-table side - who were perhaps slightly over-performing - rather than convincing 'top six' candidates; and in the last few games, they've started misfiring badly. I don't know what's going wrong with them, but I imagine there will be a mass FPL exodus from Spurs assets after this (I never felt confident enough to go in for any of them anyway...). There were a few nice balls in behind down the left from new teenage sensation Mikey Moore, but overall he had quite a quiet game - and is clearly not yet an adequate replacement for Son.... or even Werner.

Could Ten Hag's job have been saved if those efforts from Garnacho, Casemiro, and Dalot had gone in? I doubt it; but if so, it's probably all for the best that they didn't. It is a cruelty of Fate, though, that United could be so on top for most of this game and end up losing it. It's a pity that poor refereeing again dominates the headlines in this one (the penalty decision was one of the worst I can remember in a long, long time), as it was actually a cracking game: one of the best performances we've seen from United this calendar year; but West Ham were also very much improved defensively, and really looking good value for the draw, despite having to ride their luck a bit.

Arsenal v Liverpool was a fascinating tactical battle, with The Gunners clearly having the better of things in the first half: Havertz's mobility (not just dropping deep to link up with his midfield and leaving a perplexing hole in front of the Liverpool centre-backs, as he often does in his 'false 9' mode, but also drifting out on to the right a lot, to help Saka double-team a weary-looking Andy Robertson), in particular, was causing all sorts of problems. But Slot revitalized Liverpool in the second half, particularly with his tactical substitutions on the hour, the greater physicality of Szoboszlai and Gakpo giving his team more long out-ball options... while Arsenal progressively unravelled with injuries to Gabriel and Timber, and were left hanging on for their lives in the last 15 or 20 minutes. Arsenal can feel rightly aggrieved that the referee's bizarre award of a foul on Szoboszlai denied them a late winner; but on the balance of play, a draw was a fair result. However, this game has left FPL managers in even greater uncertainty about how secure Luis Diaz's minutes are in the face of strong competition from Gakpo. And Alexander-Arnold's lack of impact in the game - apart from the sublime pre-assist for Salah's equaliser - may be causing worries to those who've invested their life savings to bring him into their defence. (Ben White reminded us that he's a very strong alternative as the top premium defender this year, with an almost identical early ball to set up Saka's opener.)

A little bit of Zen (13)

 

“In the beginner’s mind there are many possibilities, in the expert’s mind there are few.”

Shunryu Suzuki

I'm definitely not 'an expert', then....  So many choices to be made every week....

Dilemmas of the Week - GW9

  

Every week, we need to take a long hard look at our squad, and ask ourselves if we want to make any changes....

If we do see a pressing case for a change here or there, we then need to weigh that against the possible advantage of saving our transfer - 'rolling' it over to use in a future week. This option achieves greater tactical complexity this season with the new rule that allows us to save up as many as 5 Free Transfers to use at one time. If we ever manage to do that, it would in effect be a 'mini Wildcard', enabling us to conduct a major squad overhaul in one fell swoop (particularly useful as there are a handful of 'premium' players who cost so much more than everyone else that you can't conveniently move them in and out of your squad without making multiple other changes as well).

Then, of course, occasionally multiple changes may seem so inescapable that we have to consider whether it's worth spending points on 1 or 2 extra transfers (a tactic which obviously deserves a whole post of its own one day).

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 9?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Saka continues to be the biggest worry for FPL managers, having missed out on the Bournemouth game last weekend and the midweek European tie. Arteta has been making positive noises about his problem not being too serious, and his having been able to take part in some training (even last week?), but many are suspicious that this might be wilful misdirection. It looks to me as if, at worst, he's only going to miss one more week, so it's really not worth using transfers on - if you want to get him back as soon as he's fit again.

Son, who was the most strongly favoured alternative to Saka (among those who spend their transfers like water...), also took the night off in Europe this week, so must be considered a doubt for the West Ham match.

Luis Diaz might have some sort of injury too? Slot seems to be very tight-lipped about the condition of his squad, or the reasons for his selections.

Calafiori and Trippier and Doku and Grealish have also apparently picked up problems which may keep them out for - who knows how long?

And we still seem to have no timeline for the return of Alisson or Odegaard or Joao Pedro.

However, it seems as though Danny Welbeck (who looked to have possibly broken a vertebra in last week's match, like Neymar did in the 2014 World Cup; but apparently it was just a 'nasty bruise'), and DeBruyne, Timber, Branthwaite, Minteh, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi, Callum Wilson, Sugawara, Luke Shaw and Sam Johnstone are all 'near' to a possible return this weekend. That is rather a lot of uncertainty to be dealing with - for anyone who owns any of these players (or, more probably, anyone who is interested in acquiring any of them: DeBruyne and Branthwaite, in particular, are likely to be highly desired assets if they regain a regular start and are quickly back to their best.)

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Quite a rash of red cards last week: Saliba, Andersen, Philogene and Ryan Fraser are all serving one-match bans, while Kudus is starting a three-match suspension for 'violent conduct'.

There must now be serious doubts about what the heck is going on between Pep and Phil Foden, after last year's 'Player of the Season' was again left on the bench for most of last week's game against Wolves. And sure, he started in the Champions League this week, and got a goal; but that might be seen as a grudgingly forced selection from Pep, as he was nominally starting on the left flank - filling in for the unavailable Doku and Grealish. And if that's the only position he's likely to play in the Premier League, even if he is now back to regular starts, he's a much less attractive FPL prospect than if he's being allowed to play his favourite, freeer role in the middle. (And I've always felt that he tends to be less productive when DeBruyne is also on the pitch, inevitably allowing the silky veteran to take on the lion's share of the creative duties most of the time.)

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

I daresay this is likely to be an unpopular call, as he's currently the sixth most popular keeper in the game, with very nearly 12% ownership, but.... I've had serious reservations about Robert Sanchez since pre-season. He is absolutely dreadful on the ball, and opposing teams are increasingly targeting him because of that - which unsettles the whole of the defence; and it leads to him often slugging the ball long down the middle when he's put under pressure, and of course these panicky long balls almost invariably get picked up by an opposing player - conceding possession cheaply. This must be particularly vexing for a coach like Maresca who sets such store by his goalkeepers being able to step up between the centre-backs to play a full part in the early build-up. Moreover, although he's very agile for a big bloke and is regularly pulling off spectacular saves, it is becoming increasingly apparent that there are other defects in his game: he really doesn't command his six-yard box or his penalty area very decisively, often fails to claim aerial balls or to rush out quickly towards an opponent getting set to shoot. My mate Adam Clery of FourFourTwo magazine (himself a goalkeeper - only in a Sunday League, I think; but he's knowledgeable and passionate about the craft) just called him out on this in his excellent summation of the Liverpool v Chelsea game... and suggests he's likely to be replaced in the winter window.

Chris Wood, despite claiming the late winner against Palace with a slick strike from just outside the box, actually had a bit of a stinker on Monday night - spurning four or five good chances before finally converting one. I suspect that his 'hot streak' may have just about run its course (and Forest are facing some much tougher fixtures over the next couple of months!).

Many people might also be alarmed that that Forest goal depended on a bit of a howler from Dean Henderson in the Palace goal (saw it early, got down to it smartly,.... somehow forgot to put his arm in the way??), and that, combined with Palace's poor overall form and continuing leakiness in defence, may prompt people to move away from him (and Guehi and any other Palace defenders too!). I had fancied him as one of the most promising 4.5-millon goalkeeper picks at the start of the season, but dropped him when I did my Wildcard reshuffle a few weeks back.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Manchester United were - strangely, unexpectedly?? - rejuvenated by the news that Schoolmaster Erik is going to stay in charge for a while longer; or perhaps just by the return of willing battering-ram Rasmus Hojlund to their front line.... Rashford and Garnacho were suddenly giving hints of getting back to their best too. I wouldn't get too excited too quickly, but... there are perhaps 'green shoots of recovery' starting to appear at Old Trafford.

Buonanotte and Ndiaye continue to impress - now very much in the conversation for those budget picks in midfield and attack. And Jarod Bowen (despite West Ham's extremely indifferent form) might now be putting up some competition to Diaz/Jota/Mbeumo for the mid-price midfielder slot?

And the performance of the week came from.... Curtis Jones; but, unfortunately, he can't be expected to get a regular start at Liverpool. Crying shame, that; he is, for me, looking better than Macallister or Gravenberch; but they are established internationals and expensive signings - so, difficult to drop.

Son Heung-Min had an outstanding game also - but immediately became an injury doubt again.

And of course The Sheep are all rushing to sign Gvardiol and Keane after their wonder-strikes last week.... apparently not realising that defenders only score once-in-a-blue-moon, and only score goals like that (in Michael Keane's case, anyway...) once in a lifetime. City are lookng utterly incapable of keeping a clean sheet at the moment, and I fear Gvardiol might not even be an invariable starter now that his able alternate Nathan Ake is fit again. Everton have been pretty woeful in defence for most of this season, and Keane has often been part of the problem; he surely won't keep his place once Jarrad Branthwaite is available again. So, sorry, Sheep - those are two daft picks. You should not go chasing last week's points!!

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

The UNLUCKIEST team so far?

The chaps over at The Athletic have just done one of their round-table chat videos on the issue of LUCK and how it's impacting the Premier League season so far. [I feel inclined to ask them for a token royalty fee for ripping off my idea...]

Host Joe Devine quizzes their two tactical analysts, JJ Bull and Jon Mackenzie, on some of the leading 'unluckiest team' contenders. They end up agreeing on.... Bournemouth. Which I can kind of see; they've often felt as if they've had games that have slipped away from them by the slenderest of margins; and the disallowing of Dango Ouattara's last-minute winner against Newcastle in Gameweek 2 was certainly one of the most outrageous injustices of the year.

However, the pundits here were mainly relying on Opta's 'expected goals' and 'expected points' stats - which, I feel, are probably of rather dubious value anyway. And, even if you do accept their validity and significance, if you're seriously underperforming these expected attacking numbers, that probably means you're playing badly rather than that you're being unlucky. They also mused on the impact of fixtures quite a bit; but again, for me, that's scareely relevant - it is a different kind of luck. Sure, having a particularly tough run of games - or a particularly easy one, Liverpool! - to start the season is going to have a big impact on your points and league standing; but there is nothing unexpectted, unpredictable about this; as soon as the schedule is announced, you know when the spells are where you're likely to struggle - or to be making hay! - and you have to try to adapt. Apart from the Ouattara disallowed goal, I don't think they gave any consideration to the impact of poor refereeing decisions (which has been the main focus of my 'Luck-o-Meter' series), or to uncommonly superlative goals - or near-misses - swinging the results of games.

And I don't think they even mentioned the two clubs I would nominate as way out ahead in the BAD LUCK Stakes so far: Crystal Palace..... and Chelsea! (The Blues just cannot get a penalty award this season!! They've had good shouts in almost every game so far; sometimes more than one; but they've only been given ONE. It is bizarre,.... outrageous.)

Luck-o-Meter (8)

 

It did feel slightly odd that VAR was having to intervene in a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' decision for Saliba's sending-off; we don't see that very often, but I suppose it's part of their remit. And it was absolutely the right decision - uncontested by Arsenal players or manager; the surprise was that Jarred Gillett initially got it wrong. (And is there too much of a grey area about the definition of such 'opportunity'; many might feel that the chance hasn't really crystallized when the attacking player is only 7 or 8 yards inside the opposition half.....)  There was a possible second red-card decision for Raya's foul on Evanilson in the box late in the game. I suppose he got the benefit of the doubt because it looked like an accidental collision rather than a cynical foul; and, in a packed penalty area, the attacker wasn't likely to immediately get a follow-up shooting chance. Even so, we've seen those given....  And it would have been a hard blow for Arsenal to lose their talismanic keeper as well as their best defender for Liverpool's visit next week (and an even harder blow for the astonishing 32.5% of FPL managers who currently own Raya!!). Semenyo's huge miss was the other major piece of 'luck' in that game... along with the unexpected goalscorer in Ryan Christie, finding a sweet finish to a well-worked set-piece routine.

Southampton had a clear penalty mysteriously ignored when Jordan Ayew held on to a player's shirt for several seconds. And since they were still 2-1 up at the time, that would probably have had a material impact on the eventual result of the game. They might also feel a little aggrieved about how much time was added on at the end. Leicester, though, having smashed the post twice and seen Buonanotte come within a whisker of claiming a second goal, will feel that they got the result they deserved. Probably the game's biggest incident in 'luck' terms, though, was Wout Faes almost scoring a spectacular own-goal, and having his blushes spared by a superb save from Hermansen.

A few near-misses (especially Son's thumping shot against the foot of the right-hand post late on), and a few sharp saves, in the Spurs v West Ham game wobbled the needle of the Luck-o-Meter a little. But the major weirdnesses in that game were the unfathomable decision to credit the own goal to Areola (the ball might have deflected off his bum or thigh, but that wasn't a decisive contact: the ball was clearly goalbound already (Diop's own goal at Fulham looked far more as though the deflection off Leno's chest had directed it towards the goal...); I hope the Premier League might yet overturn that plainly bonkers attribution - although it will be too late to affect the FPL points allocations. How 'unlucky' the own goal itself was might be a little more debatable: a quick-fire double ricochet like that always looks very random and impossible to legislate for, but.... the shot was not so powerful that Areola was obliged to make a block with his foot, he probably could have fallen on the ball and gathered it; and when a defender is running back towards his own keeper, he should be alert to the possibility that the ball might get spilled in his direction at speed. So, maybe not 100% a matter of luck, but still pretty unlucky. The half-hearted penalty shout against Udogie for blocking a shot on the goal line was plainly without merit; yes, the ball hit his arm, but his arm was in front of his body. The rare and unusual decision to pull Maddison at half-time - for 'tactical reasons' - was an unexpected blow to his 6.5% of FPL managers. 

Two sendings-off in the game at Craven Cottage is a pretty unusual event (and I thought Philogene's second yellow offence was really a bit soft). And although Emi Martinez has a great record for penalty saves, that too is a very rare occurrence (even rarer, perhaps, that someone takes such a bad penalty that I could have saved it!). The penalty should never have been awarded in the first place, since the ball was headed at Cash from point-blank range, and his arm was in a perfectly 'natural' position - but, as it turned, it made no difference anyway; still, another shockingly bad decision to add to the weekend's rather large tally. And then we get another own-goal in that game too....?  The needle on the meter is definitely twitching strongly this week.

Manchester United of course feel it was unlucky - though scarcely unjust ('dried blood' isn't bright red, Erik) - that De Ligt had to keep getting treatment for a gushing wound on top of his head, which led to them being a man short when Pinnock headed Brentford in front from a corner just before the break; but dreadful defending of the set-piece from Dalot and Casemiro was the more immediate cause there.

Everton set out on the path to victory with a wonder-goal from..... Michael Keane??!!  What universe are we living in???  The Ipswich penalty appeal for the clash between Clarke and McNeil, overturned after a second look suggested by VAR, was, I think, rightly denied. But it's still a bit of a concern to me that the referee is under so much pressure to reverse his original decision when such a pitchside review is directed. (And I suspect PGMOL have surreptitiously tweaked something in their protocols about this, because we suddenly saw four or five of these recommendations in one weekend, after having hardly any in previous gameweeks.)

It's always a bit of a turn-up when Newcastle lose at home (first time in 11 games?!), and they did absolutely dominate this game - except for falling asleep a little on a breakaway from a quick free-kick. And they absolutely should have had a penalty for Veltman handling the ball on the ground on the edge of the box early in the game. (VAR didn't even 'look' at that one???)

Two goals from defenders nicked the win for City, in a game where they scarcely deserved a point. And good grief, how did Savinho escape a booking for a cynical (and utterly needless, when there were a gaggle of his teammates closing in on the breakaway attacker) foul on the half-way line??

VAR again played a prominent role in the Anfield game, sometimes by omission: I'm not saying Tosin should have gone off for his early foul on Jota, but we want some consistency in the officiating. This situation was identical to the Saliba sending-off the day before, where VAR's response was to advise the referee to take a second look at the incident. How can they change their procedure within 24 hours?? The ref - and VAR! - also missed an obvious penalty for Chelsea shortly afterwards, when Trent Alexander-Arnold stamped on Sancho's foot. (Chelsea really seem cursed in this respect at the moment: they seem to have cast-iron penalties ignored almost every week; it's really hurting Palmer's points tally.)  But fortunes were perhaps balanced out by Salah's appeal also being turned down later. Although that one was a much weaker case: although Colvill's rushing towards the back of Salah was clumsy, there was minimal contact, and Salah rather lost himself the shout by going down way too easily. The penalty award for Curtis Jones was perhaps a little bit soft: one of those where, if the referee hadn't called it, I doubt if VAR would have seen enough in it to query the on-field decision. At least VAR correctly overturned the referee's penalty award against Sancho and the disallowing of Jackson's goal (although the latter seemed to take a very long time....).

I didn't see any refereeing howlers in the Monday night game - but the EPL's very brief official highlights video would probably have expunged them. Palace again looked a bit unlucky, with both Eze and Nketiah hitting the woodwork with powerful long-range efforts, and Sels keeping the home side in the game with a string of fine saves (while Dean Henderson was horribly at fault for Wood's late winner).

It was curious that, in a close game, Sels claimed the maximum bonus points - while matchwinner Wood only earned a solitary extra point. Many FPL managers were also shocked that Salah - who the game's 'Bonus Points System' strangely hates - despite registering a goal and an assist in a 2-1 win, was only awarded 2 bonus points rather than 3. While Curtis Jones did indeed have an outstanding game, it seemed implausible - in a system that so massively rewards goals and assists - that he could have out-pointed Salah so heavily. There was similar weirdness elsewhere, with Senesi rather than Kluivert picking up the 3-point bonus in the Bournemouth game, and Bissouma rather than Son getting the top points at Spurs. I know BPS has advertised some revisions to the points allocations for various game actions this season, but they wouldn't explain such a big change in the kind of players now benefitting from the extra points; one suspects there must also have been some radical - unannounced - shift in the way certain game actions are being defined and counted. As if that surreptitious tweaking of the system weren't bad enough, we've also witnessed some overt manipulation of the BPS scores, long after the final whistle. The most egregious example was Saka in Gameweek 6, whose improbably huge BPS total was surreptitiously revised downwards after the game so that he'd only receive 1 bonus point rather than 3. Something similar seems to have gone on this week with the Liverpool game (although it didn't actually affect the final bonus points this time.... so, why bother?): Salah's BPS score was bumped up by 5 or 6, to make it look a bit more respectable, while one of his teammates' (Trent's, I think) was swingeingly reduced. Originally, Salah had only been one BPS credit away from getting just 1 bonus point - which surely would have caused global rioting.

Son also missed out on an additional 3 points (and probably increased bonus points too) - because the League took ages to decide that he deserved an assist for the West Ham own goal....

Omissions from starting line-ups like Fernandez, Macallister, and Diaz (though not entirely unexpected, given how far they'd had to travel for the internationals) also weigh in the 'luck' scales slightly. Sa's unexpected stepping in for Johnstone, and Foden's being left on the bench also caused a lot of ripples in the world of FPL (the latter especially so!).

Bournemouth's convincing win over Arsenal was the only big upset of the weekend; although Brighton's victory over Newcastle and Everton's over Ipswich were also perhaps slightly unexpected; and we nearly saw Chelsea beating Liverpool and Wolves beating City....

It was another week where most of the big names failed to produce anything: Salah, Son, and, I suppose, Gvardiol were the only high-owned players to feature in the 'Team of the Week'.

It wasn't nearly such a 'lucky' week as some we have seen this season. But the improbability of Michael Keane's goal feels like it should be worth an extra point or two on my 'Luck' scale all on its own!! And the welter of close calls (even if ultimately not wrong; although at least one of them was...) in the top-of-the-table clash at Anfield makes a big contribution to my final rating too. I'm going to give this gameweek a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

GW8 - What did we learn?

Spurs were perhaps a little fortunate to benefit from two astonishingly precise and powerful shots shaving the inside of the post.... and one of the most bizarre and unfortunate own-goals we might see all season. And Areola - who had a pretty good game overall, pulling off one save (from Porro's heavily deflected shot) that was near-miraculous - was particularly abused by that scoreline (and by the bizarre decision to credit the o.g. to him rather than Todibo!); he's a good goalkeeper pick, and owned by nearly 7% of FPL managers - it was a wretched day for them. Son's looking sharp and hungry again, smashing a post as well as claiming a goal and an assist; his high-price, and his notorious inconsistency of returns, make him a big conundrum in FPL - but when he's in this kind of form, he's hard to ignore. Maddison's owners probably shouldn't panic - yet - about his 'tactical' withdrawal at half-time; but it is a cause of concern (at least he contributed an assist while he was on the pitch). And Kudus's three-match suspension for pushing two Spurs players in the face will put a big dent in anyone's confidence about West Ham's prospects (that, along with their generally tepid performance here; Lopategui still hasn't got them playing, not with any consistency or cohesion). Although it was an entertaining game, this did feel rather like a clash between a good mid-table side and a poor mid-table side; neither convinced as likely major contenders even for the lesser European spots, and certainly not for the top four.

Morgan Rogers's owners will no doubt be crowing about another goal for him - but they should reflect that his successful effort needed a massive deflection to beat Bernd Leno,... while he later squandered a much better chance; his xGI still ranks only 22nd amongst midfielders, 36th amongst all players (and this mid-gameweek, while several are still to play and might overtake him). I admire his ability, his potential tremendously; but I just don't think he's yet posting the numbers to be in FPL contention, even as a budget fifth pick in midfield. The final score slightly flattered Villa, as things might have turned out differently if the penalty hadn't been squandered (one has to query why Marco Silva didn't have Raul take it, when he's in such hot scoring form; Martinez has a great record for saving penalties - but I could have saved that one...), and Andersen hadn't got sent off... and Diop hadn't been unlucky to turn the ball into his own net late on.

I had thought that the Manchester United dressing-room might have been looking forward to a possible escape from the dour Ten Hag, and now be emotionally depleted by the disappointing news that they're stuck with him, probably for the rest of the season. But perhaps his players don't find him as uninspiring as I do (or perhaps it's just their professional pride or concern for the United fans kicking in...?), because they produced one of their best performances of the season this Saturday. The return of Hojlund might be a key catalyst, giving them a more dangerous outlet up front; and Rashford and Garnacho are starting to look lively again. Brentford are still looking like a team who are too good to go down, but not good enough to achieve very much more than that.

Newcastle are still misfiring rather, at the back (Livramento and Hall looking a pale shadow of the Trippier-Burn combination of the last two seasons) and up front (Isak and Gordon getting lots of chances, but somehow not quite putting them away...). They completely dominated this game, but couldn't make their superiority count - and got caught out by one quick breakaway (and another slick finish from Danny Welbeck). But they should have had a penalty for Veltman's blatant handball on the ground early in the game, so can feel hard done-by for the loss of their unbeaten home record here.

Southampton, I think, continue to show slow signs of improvement, at least in their attacking game. But the defence is still letting them down: you should never give up a two-goal lead, even when a man down. Leicester were scarcely more impressive; although they have much more talent in their squad, I have serious doubts about whether 'Clueless' Steve Cooper will be able to get the best out of them. Southampton might feel a little hard done-by that they had a clear penalty shout ignored before Leicester had equalized... and then that the added-on time was allowed to run on so long. But it felt to me like just about the right result overall. Facundo Buonanotte - and perhaps his new sidekick Abdul Fatawu too - will surely start attracting a lot of interest from FPL managers after another fine display.

Everton are looking increasingly fluent and dangerous in attack, with McNeil and Ndiaye in outstanding form (Calvert-Lewin rather less so; the nearly 300,000 FPL managers who've impulsively piled in for him over the past five or six weeks might be starting to have second thoughts); but they need a sterner test than Ipswich to convince me about their solidity in central midfield. I hope McKenna can pull Ipswich through; I think he's the best manager at one of the promoted sides this year; but he is perhaps lumbered with the weakest of those three squads.

Arsenal's bad history with red cards is becoming a worry - difficult to see why it's happening, as they don't look a particularly physical, aggressive, or cynical side; but that's already their third this season, and it's costing them dearly. There wasn't really any dispute about the decision, either: Saliba obviously accepted it meekly, and even Arteta had no whinge about it afterwards. But frankly, the Gunners had looked a bit lacklustre even before that, and a much improved Bournemouth would probably have given them a very hard fight even without the man-advantage.

You have to wonder what's going on with Pep and Phil Foden. I suspect the young star has committed the cardinal sin of complaining about his ration of minutes - resulting in him being punished with even shorter minutes. He doesn't seem to have any injury problem, and there is no conceivable tactical reason for his repeated omission this season. Savinho continues to be far too much of a yellow-card magnet; and he might again have had two in this game (it was unfathomable that he was let off his early professional foul!). And oh dear, Gvardiol got another screamer - so, all those dupes who spent over-the-odds on him expecting this kind of thing every week will feel vindicated for a while. Of course, he might score in each of the next four games... but then not hit the net again for another two years; that's how it goes with goalscoring defenders. Given City's complete inability to keep clean sheets this year, he really needs a goal every four or five games to justify the 6-million price-tag, and I seriously doubt if he can keep that up. (And he was lucky not to concede an own goal! He created a problem by charging back directly towards his keeper when he was about to make a block, just as in the Todibo-Areola incident on Saturday, and he had no idea where the ball would end up when the rebound off Ederson cannoned off his knee - must have been very relieved to see it fly just wide of the post.)

Sa kept Wolves in the game with a trio of full-stretch saves. But they'd often troubled City on the counter-attack, and really looked well worth a point. I don't think I've ever seen Guardiola and Lillo looking so miserable in the dugout: frustration quickly gave way to despair; and indeed, on a few occasions, it looked as if they were resorting to prayer.  It was such a pity Wolves couldn't quite weather that blizzard of corners in the last few minutes of added-on time. (Though, not for the first time, City had begun to look much more incisive after Foden and Grealish came on late in the game; and you have to question why they weren't playing from the start.)  I hope that they won't be too demoralised by that last-gasp failure, and that this will be a turning-the-corner moment for them: if they continue to play like this, they should be able to pick up lots of points in the much easier run of fixtures they now face until the end of the year.

Liverpool v Chelsea was a lovely, open, thrilling game - almost marred by dodgy officiating. Chelsea should have had a penalty early on, when Trent stamped on Sancho's foot; but Chelsea might have been a man down even before that with Tosin's professional foul on a breakaway Jota. At least VAR corrected the ref's bad decisions on the penalty against Sanchez and the offside against Jackson (though the latter seemed to take an awfully long time, for what looked like a very clearcut call). The temporary loss of two stalwarts in their defence probably cost Chelsea here (I can't see a very rusty-looking Reece James having reclaimed the start from Gusto with this performance). This was a match that could easily have gone either way (with both Jackson and Palmer having very near misses), and I don't think Chelsea should be at all discouraged by their unfortunate failure to come away with anything; for me, they're still looking good value for a top four finish. Liverpool, though, might well be poised for a title charge - as City and Arsenal stutter slightly.

It was difficult to divine much about the Monday night game from the very brief highlights posted by the League. Palace looked a bit hard done-by - enjoying lots of possession, and having some very near-misses: Nketiah and Eze both smashed the woodwork, and Sels pulled off enough saves to earn maximum bonus points in the game. Wood, on the other hand, seemed to be going off the boil rather, missing a number of good chances; and his eventual late winner, though a sweet strike from outside the box, was essentially down to a goalkeeping error from Henderson. In our funny old game', Forest have so far been massively over-performing, while Palace, despite showing a lot of promise, have failed to recapture the excellent form they showed at the end of last season. I expect both of those trends to change - but wouldn't like to predict how soon, or how strongly. I fear that Palace, with Spurs and Villa up soon, and City and Arsenal in the run-up to Christmas, are likely to be still deep in the relegation zone going into 2025.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW8

 

Every week, we need to take a long hard look at our squad, and ask ourselves if we want to make any changes....

If we do see a pressing case for a change here or there, we then need to weigh that against the possible advantage of saving our transfer - 'rolling' it over to use in a future week. This option achieves greater tactical complexity this season with the new rule that allows us to save up as many as 5 Free Transfers to use at one time. If we ever manage to do that, it would in effect be a 'mini Wildcard', enabling us to conduct a major squad overhaul in one fell swoop (particularly useful as there are a handful of 'premium' players who cost so much more than everyone else that you can't conveniently move them in and out of your squad without making multiple other changes as well).

Then, of course, occasionally multiple changes may seem so inescapable that we have to consider whether it's worth spending points on 1 or 2 extra transfers (a tactic which obviously deserves a whole post of its own one day).

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 8?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

The big ooh-aah this week, of course, is over Saka, who came off in the Greece game with a leg muscle problem; the latest gossip all seems to point to him indeed missing this weekend's clash at Bournemouth. However, he's not the kind of player you can swap in and out for a short-term problem: you really ought to have back-up on the bench you can turn to for a week or two. Havertz also picked up a problem with his knee while training with Germany: also being played down as 'not serious' so far, but also looking quite likely to rule him out of the next match. I can't imagine why anyone has Havertz in their squad, but apparently over 20% do. I would say the effect of these likely withdrawals is not so much for their immediate impact on Fantasy teams (though it will hit hard for those who've been trying to get by with no bench, or only a very minimal one), but in its knock-on effects on other Arsenal assets. Arteta's perilously thin squad is now badly stretched, and without their two most potent attacking players of the season so far, they are likely to struggle to get results. White also looks to be crocked for a while, but that had been slowly becoming apparent over the last few weeks already. At least it looks as though Timber is going to be eligible for selection again. And Calafiori is relishing his chance to get a run in the side at last.

Munoz had an injury worry in the last game against Liverpool, but Glasner seems to think he should be OK by Monday. Ditto, Adam Wharton, who had some trouble with tightness in the groin while away with the England Under-21s.

Morgan Gibbs-White and Tyler Dibling picked up knocks just before the international break, but their managers seem hopeful they'll be recovered for this weekend.

The only other problems emerging during international duty were with Ugarte, Garnacho, Andersen, and Tuanzebe (apparently a 'freak accident' at home??); none of whom are very much owned at this point. (Oh, and Hwang Hee-Chan of Wolves too; although he hasn't done much so far this season, so is unlikely to be missed by anyone.)  However, the cumulative impact on Manchester United, whose injury list was already getting very long, could be pretty devastating: it's looking very much as though they might have to play their next game with Casemiro and Eriksen in central midfield - which makes the prospect of another spanking very real. (And I don't imagine most of their players are stoked by the revelation that they haven't been able to replace Ten Hag.)

Chiesa seems to be suffering a succession of unspecified 'injury problems' which keep him out of contention at Liverpool - although, with the strength of their current line-up, it was difficult to see how he was ever going to get a start anyway. His indisposition is probably, in fact, welcome to most Fantasy managers, as it slightly eases the anxiety about Slot's weekly selection decisions. Though we are, of course, still left with the usual uncertainties about whether Diaz and Nunez will be considered fit to start after a long flight back from South America...  Cody Gakpo may again be favourite - for one week only - to get the start on the left flank. The more momentous concern at Anfield, though, is Alisson having apparently pulled a thigh muscle quite badly in the last EPL game against Palace. It's very difficult to predict how long an injury like that will take to mend: could be 3 weeks, could be 6 weeks - could be longer. And now his usual understudy Kelleher is said to be suffering with a virus, so we might be getting third-choice Jaros appearing between the sticks again this week.

Lots of vexation here for the FPL enthusiast; but no situations - apart from Alisson's indisposition - which should require remedial transfer action.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Cucurella and Fofana are both suspended for the next game, after reaching 5 yellow cards already (thank Anthony Taylor for booking virtually the entirety of both teams in that ridiculous match against Bournemouth a few weeks back....).

Emile Smith Rowe was unexpectedly 'rested' for Fulham's game against City (and I haven't seen Marco Silva give any reason for it), so that could be a bit of a worry for his owners. (And indeed, he has shed around 220,000 owners since then, which must put him close to a price-drop.)  It's probably more the rival claims of Dwight McNeil that are drawing people away from him than dissatisfaction with his own potential, but even so... this situation is becoming a worry (yes, for me).

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Oh god - Muric, again! But so long as he doesn't have a 'mare like that more than once in every 4 or 5 games, I imagine Kieran McKenna will keep faith with him. And perhaps we should too; Ipswich still have a pretty attractive run of fixtures through till Christmas.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

No new eye-catchers in GW7, I would say - except perhaps Facundo Buonanotte, who made people sit up and take notice with an early frontrunner for 'Goal of the Month'. Well, of course, Mateo Kovacic is now attracting a lot of interest after his brace against Fulham (nearly 200,000 have bought him in the last fortnight, pushing his ownership up to 3.6%); now, he is probably a nailed starter in Rodri's absence, and he is much more of a regular goal-threat than the Spaniard - but he's not going to be chipping in a brace every week (probably won't manage it again all season...). He is, nevertheless, now threatening McNeil, Smith Rowe, and Semenyo as the best budget pick for the fifth seat; one just needs to be a bit more realistic about his likely goal tally! Bowen, and perhaps Kudus, should probably be coming on to people's radar too, as West Ham are gradually improving. And Delap, Dibling, and Ndiaye reinforced their claims for attention. (But the recently popular Dwight McNeil disappointed his new owners slightly.,,)

Chris Wood and Danny Welbeck continue to bang in the goals too; they're currently performing so well, you have to consider them as amongst the best forward picks, period, not just as appealing budget options. I remain a bit wary about them because of their woeful injury histories; I can't recall the last time either of them kept a streak going this long. I wish them well for their good form to continue; but it starts to feel less and less likely that it can for much longer.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A little bit of Zen (12)

 

"You do your best thinking when you’re not thinking."

GW

When the weekly dilemmas are getting too much for you,.... try sleeping on it.

How do we feel about this?

 

Pretty damn stoked, I would have to say. Tuchel is a very shrewd manager, who's had an astonishing record of success with four of Europe's top clubs, across three major leagues. And he's maintained a win record up around 60% - or better - at every club he's managed (except Mainz, who are a decidedly mid-table Bundesliga side). And he took a Chelsea team in disarray on his arrival - to an immediate Champions League Final victory over Pep Guardiola's City. There are not too many managers out there with a more impressive CV. Frankly, I didn't think we had any chance of landing such an excellent candidate.

I can see some people might have let themselves get emotionally invested in other possibilities. Klopp would have been fun - but has categorically stated he's not interested (for now). Thomas Frank is a very nice chap, but not (yet) a proven winner. Eddie Howe looks like an option for a few years down the line - when he's actually won something.

But some fans, it seems, and some folks in pundit-land, have been getting upset about the fact he's not English....?  Good grief! We've had over 20 years to get over the 'shock' of the late Sven Eriksson's breakthrough appointment; and we've had Fabio Capello since then too (admittedly not a very popular or successful appointment - but you can't blame that on his nationality). The only - non-xenophobic - argument I can see for such reservations would be that it is useful, perhaps essential, for the naional team manager to have some prior knowledge of the player pool available, ideally through a direct experience of the Premier League. But there's been a lot of movement of players - and managers - between the Premier League and the Bundesliga in recent years, so I think most German coaches are probably pretty aware of the English game, even if they haven't actually managed here. And Tuchel, of course, has - even though it was only for part of a season.

Is he a good manager? YES. Is he tactically astute, adaptable, known for shrewdness in getting the best out of disparate collections of players? YES, YES, YES!  Does he know how to win games? DEFINIITELY!

The fact of his being German does not bother me in the slightest. I just want our national team to have a really, really good manager - someone who'll give this insanely talented group of young players a good chance of some tournament success. We've got that.

Of course, it might not work out. We might suffer from an embarrassment of riches - having just too many excellent players to choose from, and never being able to find an optimal balance. And we might just not get the breaks; having the best coach and the best squad is, unfortunately, not enough. There are always 3, or 4, or 5 teams that are in with a chance of winning a major tournament; and it's rarely the best of them that actually does. But, with Tuchel's appointment, we are at least giving ourselves a very good chance.

Sheep Picks (4)

 

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Rayan Ait-Nouri is a classy player, for sure.  I had him in my team for much of last season. He can be very dangerous going forward, is really more of an attacking wing-back than a defensive full-back. But therein lies the problem: with their current defensive form, he may be a luxury Wolves can't afford.

In a classic piece of 'sheep' reactivity, tens of thousands of managers are piling in for him - after he bagged a goal and an assist against Brentford before the break. This, despite the fact that Wolves have conceded 20 goals in their 7 games so far, haven't come close to managing a clean sheet, and have Manchester City and then Brighton up next!

On an optimistic view, I can see Ait-Nouri notching up 6-8 goals over the whole season, and perhaps a similar number of assists. But he's going to need more than that to make up for the huge number of negative points he's accruing with all the goals conceded. Despite scoring in his last two outings (do The Sheep really think that now means he's going to score in every game??), he's still only averaging 3 points per game - which is really not anywhere near enough, even for a defender.... even for a bench player.

At the moment, Wolves are looking hot favourites to be playing in the Championship next year. Yes, they had an unfortunate fixture schedule, with a lot of really difficult opponents at the start of the season. And people now point to the much more promising run of games they face from Gameweek 10 onwards. But unless Gary O'Neill can sort out their appalling defensive record, Wolves don't have any 'good' fixtures. They are down at the bottom of the table for a reason, and they look like they could get beaten - badly - by just about anyone. While this remains the case, any Wolves acquisitions - even attacking players, but especially defenders! - are very risky FPL assets. And an additional concern for those jumping on the Air-Nouri bandwagon should be that the easiest short-term fix for these defensive woes might be to start playing him in a more disciplined and withdrawn role,... or to replace him with a less expansive, more defensively solid player.

What's DIFFERENT this year...?

 

Well, it often feels like.... EVERYTHING.

This year is certainly very different to previous years in FPL in several important ways:

1)  The tweaks to the BPS scoring.  Quite a subtle thing, and something most FPL managers are likely to miss, or simply ignore. But it is likely to have quite a significant impact: something like 15-20% of your points come from bonuses - i.e., equivalent to ALL of the points-spread you'll typically see across a good quality mini-league! While it's difficult to project exactly how much effect the various little modifications to the scoring scale that decide bonus point allocation will have, it seems likely that the most important change will be the significantly bigger penalty now applied to defenders or keepers conceding a goal. The BPS is already somewhat stacked against defences, and this further disadvantage imposed on them is likely to mean that it's going to be very difficult for a keeper or a defender now to score any bonus points in a match in which they haven't kept a clean sheet. That will reduce returns from defenders quite a bit. (At least keepers can still pick up points, and BPS credit, for 'saves' - and that's usually what earns them bonus points. They'll probably earn slightly fewer bonus points this year too, because of the new change; but they won't be as hard hit as defenders.)

2)  Lower returns for defenders in general.  There are two factors here: the demise of the attacking full-back (mainly Pep's fault??), and generally lower prospects of clean sheets this year. Arsenal's defensive performance last year was a real freak: what was it, 18 clean sheets? They are very unlikely to get anywhere near that this time. Nor, by the look of the opening two months, is anyone else. Arne Slot has quickly made Liverpool a bit less gung-ho in attack and a bit less leaky in the middle of the park, so they're looking favourites to take the clean-sheet crown this year - but I doubt they'll get far into double-figures (they've been flattered so far by a bit of good luck with the refereeing decisions, and a very soft opening run of fixtures); and I'm not sure anyone else, apart from Arsenal, will get anywhere close to them. City have looked leaky; and could be in big trouble now that they've lost Rodri for the season. I think Forest, Bournemouth, and Palace show some promise, though they've not had the best of luck so far. Really, you can't fancy many teams to reach 10 clean sheets for the season this year.

And in the past we've almost always had a few points-monsters in defence: usually a progressive full-back who'd bombard the box with crosses, occasionally threaten a goal of their own, and perhaps provide additional points potential through taking corners, free-kicks, or even long-throws. Where are the Ashley Cole, Rory Delap, Leighton Baines, Aaron Cresswell de nos jours? Well, Cresswell, of course, is still around; though he's been phased out of the first team over the last two or three years. Trent provided a lot of assists in the past, but his numbers fell off a cliff last season, and aren't looking likely to rebound that strongly this year (yes, he was very unlucky to have that goal disallowed early in the season; but Slot's playing him much deeper, and he's not looking likely to play balls into the box any more - being on corners should be a plus, but Liverpool aren't nearly so focused on them as a main source of goals as Arsenal are; I fear his only likely assists will come this year from long balls over the top to Salah - useful to have, but perhaps not reaching more than 5 or 6 over the season). And there was that one magnificent season from Joao Cancelo a few years back, before he fell out with Pep. And Ben White did pretty well last year, linking with Saka down the Arsenal right. But the old-style attacking full-back who regularly pushed forward to make overlapping runs beyond the wide attacker, and was playing balls into the box all the time - we don't really have that any more. Porro is an occasional goal-threat, but is now tending to invert into deep midfield rather than pushing down the flank, so won't offer that many assists; Gvardiol is a hell of a finisher, but not a crosser, and doesn't seem likely to keep many clean sheets with City this year; White looks a bit out-of-sorts, is said to be carrying an injury. I would have said Henry and Hickey at Brentford looked our best prospects for this sort of defender; but they're still injured; and - if they ever come back - they might find that Thomas Frank has permanently changed the team's style of play to omit the use of advanced wing-backs any more. I like Robinson (and Tete), Aina (and Moreno), Kerkez, Dalot, and Munoz and Mitchell; but I'm not sure any of these will produce the really regular attacking returns we used to enjoy from top full-backs in the good old days.

3)  Fewer penalties.  A modification of the interpretation guidelines for the Handball Law seems likely to greatly reduce the number of penalties awarded for the ball hitting a defender's arm; and that's surely a good thing. Alas, the revisions have been drafted in an inept way which renders them ridiculously over-complex - and hence their application is going to be even more subjective and riddled with controversy than it has been in the past. But at least the overall number of penalty awards will be down. A modification in the VAR protocols also seems likely to have a HUGE impact: there now seems to be such a hesitancy to embarrass the on-pitch referee by suggesting he's been in error that VAR is constantly hiding behind the 'clear and obvious error' threshold for intervention, and is sitting on its hands - even when the referee has committed an obvious goof. We've seen good penalty shouts unaccountably waved away in every single gameweek so far. (And it's hitting some teams far more than others. City seem to be magically immune to conceding penalties this year; while poor Chelsea are just not being  awarded any.) And of course, players who derived an especially large number of their overall points return from converting penalties - like Cole Palmer and Bruno Fernandes - could take a pretty serious hit from this.

4)  Being able to save Free Transfers.  This is the most massive (and surprisingly positive) change in the rules of the FPL game that has ever been made. In the past, with it only being possible to save a measly 2 Free Transfers at a time, you were constantly under pressure to 'use it or lose it' - to make a transfer even when there was no particularly urgent need, just because you would miss out on receiving an extra transfer from the following gameweek if you didn't. That was an irritation - and could lead to some rash, unnecessary, self-damaging squad changes. Ah, but now - with the option introduced this year to store up to 5 FTs at one time, the tactical landscape of the game is dramatically changed: we have far more flexibility to negotiate fixture speed-bumps like blank and double gameweeks, or one-week batches of awkward fixtures. Of course, it remains to be seen how easy it will be to store up transfers; in the last two seasons, injuries seemed to come so thick-and-fast that I was only able to consider rolling a transfer half a dozen times during the year. While we can hope that this year won't see quite such an avalanche of injuries... I think it's likely to be near-impossible to store up the full quota of 5 transfers, and it will probably be misguided - self-damaging - to try (just for the bragging rights!!). But it might be possible to stock up 3 or 4 occasionally; and there will be a strong incentive to try to do so. Being able to use 4 transfers at once is effectively an extra mini-Wildcard, and could make it possible to completely revise traditional chip strategy (which is focused on using Wildcard and/or Free Hit to get around the late-season blank and double gameweeks). Moreover, for any challenging gameweek where you may need to make multiple changes - or, for instance, when offloading Asian and African players just ahead of their regional nations cup competitions, which take place in December/January every other year - in the past you'd have to do that over a number of weeks; now you can save up the necessary transfers and use them all at once, only at the moment they actually become necessary (when you'll know which of the replacement players you're contemplating are fit and in good form; if you make a choice a week or three earlier than you really need to, you can often be caught out - find yourself with a wasted pick that needs to be replaced with another transfer); that too can be a massive help to us this season.

5)  No more 'early' Double Gameweek. For the last several years, we often had one of our top sides getting an extra double-fixture, rather earlier than any of the others, in February or March... as a result of the club having had to miss a gameweek in mid-December to participate in the Club World Cup. This could be - depending on the fixtures, of course - a very tempting option for the Triple Captain chip, with top players like Haaland or Salah enjoying a unique DGW.... in mid-season, before they get knackered. But with the expansion of the Club World Cup format this year, and the tournament being moved to the summer, that nice little Spring Treat is now denied us. [Oh, I hadn't realised the winter tournament is continuing after all, in a very slightly revised format; it's now rebranded as The Intercontinental Cup. So, we might still sometimes see that additional small Double Gameweek in the Spring. But not this year... because Real Madrid won the Champions League again.]

6)  No more 'big' Blank/Double Gameweeks. As I just mentioned above, chip strategy traditionally revolved around negotiating the blank and double gameweeks that pepper the last two months of the season. But the biggest of these, by far, was the Blank Gameweek caused by the FA Cup Quarter-Final weekend (usually around GW29 or 30), and the huge Double Gameweek that followed it, usually with most or all of the rescheduled fixtures being made up at the same time. Now, it was perilous to hang on that long, waiting so late in the season for a Double Gameweek to drop a bonus chip; but it was undoubtedly a very tempting option for the Bench Boost - because with so many teams playing twice in the same week, it was usually quite easy to find 15 players with two good fixtures (or at least one good fixture! [It's really not worth loading up on players who have two tough fixtures - particularly defenders - but many people do!])  This year.... (drum roll)..... it has been decided to suspend the League programme on Quarter-Final weekend - so there will be no Blank Gameweek then, and no following BIG Double. This will give us a lot more flexibility in how to use our Free Hit and 2nd Wildcard. (Indeed, with the new facility to bank up to 5 Free Transfers at a time, these chips may sometimes be somewhat superfluous! Certainly, they're not going to be so life-savingly essential as they have been in the past.)  The focus of chip strategy will shift to the blank FA Semis weekend (this year, Gameweek 34) and the double (or doubles; the rearranged fixtures might be split over different gameweeks, further diluting their value for FPL) ensuing from that; but that is much less of a big deal. Such small double-fixture weeks are not that compelling as a Bench Boost opportunity; and even the Blank Gameweek might be possible to address adequately with saved transfers. Oh, brave new world!

7)  A plethora of decent forwwards.  Also, damn - for the first time in quite a few seasons we have a good number of forward options to choose between. For a few years now, we've had so many forwards injured for most of the season, or chronically out of form, or just nowhere near the level of the obvious top one or two picks, that.... well, you didn't usually start more than two of them... and quite often only one! And there was very little FPL differentiation going on in the forward area. But this year, we have Chris Wood and Danny Welbeck having the best season of their careers, and appearing newly immune to injury worries! Raul Jimenez, too, finally seems to be recapturing the early promise he showed with Wolves, before that horrific head injury. Haaland started incredibly hot, but has faded a little; while Isak and Watkins look to be potential challengers for the top forward honours this year. A lot of people are optimistic for Solanke's prospects now at Spurs too; and indeed Havertz's at Arsenal (he's started really well; but I'm still not convinced he's always going to play at No. 9, or be their primary goal outlet). And there are tempting options for third seat in the ultra-budget category too - such as Liam Delap at Ipswich. Not only do we suddenly have a lot of decent attacking options to choose from, but - with a lot of the usual high-scoring midfielders misfiring so far, or suffering injuries - it's actually becoming legitimate to prefer the 3-4-3 formation, sometimes, at least... and that's something I've very rarely used in the past.

And then.... there's the new 'Mystery Chip' FPL is springing on us this year. For me, this is just a further irritation, an unwelcome additional uncertainty in a season which has already got too much going on! If they'd tell us what the damn chip is a bit earlier in the season, launch it a bit earlier in the season, it wouldn't be so bad. But making us wait until January to even find out what it is; and leaving us to figure out how to accommodate it in the closing months of the season, which is when most people play all of their other chips as well,.... that's just going to get very complicated, the schedule is going to be too crowded with chip options to evaluate.

And it wouldn't be so bad if it were just a simple bonus chip - perhaps just a second Bench Boost or Triple Captain, as has been mooted by some; or a Double Bench Boost, perhaps, where you get twice the points earned by your subs for a week; but I rather fear it is going to be something much more arcane and convoluted - something that may really throw a spanner in the works. [And, oh boy, was I proved right in my misgivings about that damned new chip - and then some!!]

There are quite enough 'new challenges' in this season already. We don't want or need a stupid new Novelty Chip thrown into the mix as well!

A little bit of Zen (11)

 

“The true nature of things can only be seen when the mind is still.”

Shohaku Okumura

Luck-o-Meter (7)

Gosh - did we actually just have a week without any egregious refereeing screw-ups?? Well, very nearly...  And only a couple of VAR interventions (both, a little strangely, directing the ref to take a second look at an incident), which, for once, were both obviously correct. Things are looking up!

Brentford's penalty was perhaps a little dubious: I thought Collins threw himself to the ground a bit hopefully after minimal tangling with Lemina. And it was again a bit of a strange decision-making process, where VAR recommending the ref take a second look was tantamount to awarding the penalty themselves.... and yet we've seen several far stronger penalty shouts this season that didn't seem to get reviewed at all, and it is mystifying why some (only a few so far) get returned to the referee for a second look, but most don't. Wolves might feel a bit hard done-by that Cunha's apparently much stronger appeal near the end of the game was also apparently ignored (it may have been just outside the area, but I didn't see any announcement to that effect; the key thing with VAR is that we need full disclosure about what it's doing and why - but it all still seems a bit vague and chaotic most of the time).

Robertson and Diaz getting 'rested' for no stated reason, and then Macallister getting withdrawn at half-time, and then Alisson picking up a (possibly quite serious) injury half-way through the second-half caused a lot of misery for FPL managers with Liverpool assets (not just the ones direcly involved: every Liverpool player was negatively affected by those absences). And Palace can feel aggrieved they didn't get a penalty when Van Dijk grabbed Guehi's wrist with both hands while he was trying to go for a cross. PGMOL's justificatory statement that the incident was not 'sustained' or 'did not have a sufficient impact' was particularly bizarre: since when have those ever been criteria for awarding a penalty, are those phrases anywhere in the rules??

The disallowing of Lewis Cook's free-kick goal for Bournemouth was rough for him, but an entirely correct call - Evanilson was a mile offside, and trying to get on the end of the ball across the six-yard box (might actually have got some hair on the ball??), so unquestionably 'interfering with play'. Very hard luck on Cook, though, who had looked so surprised and delighted to register such a rare goal.

I also thought Arsenal's second goal - probably the decisive moment in the match - was a bit iffy, since, exactly as in the Lewis Cook instance, there was a player in the middle of the six-yard box (Gabriel, I think?) who was clearly offside and tried to get on the end of Saka's cross, before it went through to Martinelli beyond the far post - and, although he didn't get that near it, this was a substantial enough action to distract the goalkeeper, in my view. But the big clubs almost never have a decision like this go against them - particularly not from VAR!

I didn't see anything remotely contentious about either of the penalty calls in the Everton v Newcastle game. Tarkovski executing a judo throw on Tonali (and almost tearing the shirt off his back in the process) was about as clear-cut as they come. The only mystery there was that the on-pitch officials didn't spot it immediately. And perhaps that this was another instance where VAR recommended a 'second look' (do they not have the authority to award the penalty themselves in a case this obvious??). Similarly, there's no way - except in Sean Dyche's damaged brain - that Calvert-Lewin losing track of where the ball is and kicking Dan Burn instead can lead to an Everton penalty. However, the large number of squandered chances from Newcastle - including a failed penalty conversion from Gordon - was outside the realm of the normal and expected, and so again a small tipping of the scales of the Luck-o-Meter.

We didn't have quite such goalkeeping heroics as last week - except in the Chelsea v Forest match! Although Pickford's penalty stop, and a couple of great saves from Areola and Pope were also outside the bounds of the normal.

Not quite such a feast of spectacular goal-scoring - or near-missing - as in recent weeks either; we had a couple of scorching solo goals from Buonanotte and Doku, and Bruno Fernandes clattering the crossbar with a free-kick, but.... that was about it.

And again a few goals from defenders: Collins, Pinnock and Ait-Nouri - in the same match?!

And just about none of the most popular players came up with anything much this week. In the 'Team of the Week', most people will only have had Saka - and, maybe, Bowen and Ait-Nouri. So, it was a major upset week for many FPL managers (myself included!), but not, I think, a particularly 'lucky' one. In fact, in terms of the really vexing quirks of Fate like bad officiating or bizarre selection decisions, this is probably the best week we've had yet; but the uncanny failure of all the big names to produce in the same week does get it up to about a 3 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter.