The trouble with Pep

 

Pep Guardiola is, of course, one of the most innovative and influential coaches the game has ever seen; and - until a few months ago! - pretty much the most successful. But all of that has suddenly changed with City's remarkable meltdown since the end of October.

I am not particularly surprised by this turn of events; well, surprised, perhaps, by its suddenness and its catastrophic severity, but.... the only big surprise for me is not that it's happened, but that it took so long to come around. I think the seeds of Pep's self-destruction have been apparent for a while, and are inherent in the management 'style' that has brought him so much success thus far.

Here, I think, are some of the main reasons for the spectacular collapse we've seen unfold at City:

1)  The adamantine ego. Pep's strength of personality, his massive self-confidence and force of will, are obviously among the key factors in his exceptional success as a modern football manager. But they also evidently make him a rather prickly character, not always easy to get along with. And he has sometimes appeared to be rather petty in his dealings with his players - the very public spat with Yaya Touré being the most conspicuous instance, but surely not the only one. His rather brutal dismissal of Joe Hart (even before he had anyone decent to replace him - Willy Caballero, remember him?!), the protracted sulky controntation with Touré, and the frequent sidelining even of such giants in the team as David Silva, Sergio Aguero, and Vincent Kompany (although there were injury issues etc. behind a lot of that, it did often seem that he was reluctant to make use of them even when they were available) made it appear that he was prima-donna-ishly attempting to set his own stamp on the club by ostentiatiously shunting aside all the core contributors to its previous success. And some of the players who've left City during his reign - notably Leroy Sane and Raheem Sterling - have expressed a dissatisfaction with their treatment by him.

2)  The finicky perfectionism. "Don't let 'perfect' become the enemy of 'good'," a wise old saying goes. And I think this might be Pep's tragic flaw - or one of them. It's another thing that not only may occasionally harm results, but potentially harms his relationships with players... and fans. When you see Liverpool players being interviewed about their time under Klopp, you don't just see professional respect and gratitude towards the man, but something like adulation. When Pep's City players talk about him, there's usually a lot of positive emotion there too - certainly the respect - but it doesn't generally sound quite so warm; and it's often undercut with hints of exasperation at his obsessiveness, his perhaps excessive attention to 'small details'.

3)  The 'over-thinking'. While I wouldn't question the astuteness of Pep's understanding of the game in general, there have clearly been occasions where a compulsion to tinker with his tactical set-up has proven to be unnecessary and detrimental. At least two or three times, an undue 'respect' for the opposition in the latter stages of the Champions League has prompted a drastic change in approach which backfired and led to a premature exit from the competition.

4)  The constant 'evolution'. Now again, this isn't an outright bad thing: it's a good thing.... that can be overdone. The ability and willingness to develop the team's tractical system, to respond to new challenges from rivals and stay continually fresh (and surprising to opponents) is admirable... up to a point. But Pep seems to have been introducing a radical change of approach almost every season, and sometimes even a series of significant tweaks within the course of one season; and this is perhaps a bit too much, a bit too often. It makes it sometimes hard for the team to get settled in a particular system. And, even more importantly, it can make it difficult to recruit appropriate players - if there's an uncertainty about how the team will be playing next year, what kind of profiles they'll be needing. It probably also makes many players reluctant to accept a move to City - my climactic point here, soon - because they realise that, however good they are, they might soon become redundant under Pep's latest scheme. One year he likes attacking full-backs; then he suddenly decides that they're obsolete, and he'd rather play 3 or 4 (or 5?) centre-backs instead; then he thinks full-backs might be OK after all, but he wants them to invert into deep midfield rather than pushing up the flanks; then he decides that maybe he'd like at least one of them to join the attacking line, but more centrally rather than out wide....  It is head-spinning. (These switches of approach have been particularly pronounced in defence; and this is maybe part of the reason why there has been such a revolving door of top international defenders passing across City's books in recent years: Pedro Porro, Angelino, Eric Garcia, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Aymeric Laporte, Joao Cancelo - all unceremoniously shown the door!)

5)  An ultra-conservatism in selection.  While 'Pep Roulette' has become a notorious concept in the world of FPL (the idea that almost any City player is a risky pick because Guardiola's squad rotations can be so frequent and so unpredictable), this distracts us from the deeper truth that in many ways Pep is extremely reluctant to make certain alterations to his team. Most of his changes come in the defensive positions, or among his wide attackers, where he's usually had multiple options; but in other areas, he's often appeared to be afraid of giving key players a rest. OK, we can see that players like Ruben Dias, Rodri, and Kevin DeBruyne are 'irreplaceable' - but you have to try to do without them occasionally, both for the sake of their stamina, and for the harmony of the squad... giving the 'fringe' players enough minutes to keep them happy. Between these two extremes - rotating like crazy in positions where he's got multiple options, and being unwilling to rotate at all in positions where he's got a vital player - many of his squad have sooner or later become disenchanted and sought a move. I mentioned at the end of the point above some of the defenders who've got fed up of him (or he of them...); but there are perhaps even more examples among the attacking players who eventually tired of the limited or erratic minutes he was giving them - Leroy Sane, Riyad Mahrez, Ferran Torres, Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus, Julian Alvarez. This problem is perhaps particularly noticeable in regard to promoting youth team talents to regular starting responsibility. Poor Phil Foden is still being regularly dropped or constantly shunted around different roles (despite having just been 'Player of the Season' last year, when he was mostly able to take the responsibility of the central playmaker, due to DeBruyne's extended absence), and perpetually having to play second-fiddle to DeBruyne whenever he's fit - after 4 or 5 seasons as a more-than-capable understudy, he still hasn't been given the confidence-boost of a regular lead role in the team. And I kind of feel he's been a fool to stay there so long: his career - particularly in the international arena - could probably have blossomed more at another club. The example of fellow Academy graduates like Jadon Sancho, Morgan Rogers, and - most trenchantly - Cole Palmer, who left City for better things, must surely now rankle with him. (And one wonders how long youngsters like Oscar Bobb and Jason McAtee, and even current Pep darling Rico Lewis, will stick around, given this history of being glacially slow to fully integrate younger talents.)

6)  The chronic risk-aversion. While Pep's City have sometimes been quite exciting to watch, it's usually been because of the outsanding individual creativity they have at their disposal, rather than the overall style of play. His relentless stat-crunching, the arid quest for optimum efficiency, the preference for hanging on to the ball (even if you're not going to do much with it!) rather than doing anything that might slightly increase your chance of conceding a turnover.... these things often make for a rather dull and robotic experience for the spectator. And possibly for some of the players too; I suspect that could also be the reason so many attacking players have become disillusioned at City and left in the last few years. (Jack Grealish was the club's most expensive acquistion to date, at a reported fee of £100 million; but he couldn't get a regular start for Pep until he'd learned to be a 'defensive' winger rather than an attacking one! I love Jack, but he is a bear-of-very-little-brain; the move to City was not good for his career, and he should not have taken it.)

7)  That one big gap in his experience. Although Pep's revolutionised the modern game and won all the silverware there is to win.... he hasn't previously had a long tenure at a single club; in fact, he's now been at City for longer than he held his three previous coaching jobs combined. Thus, he's not had to deal much before even with 'succession planning' to replace a few key players, much less with remaking an entire squad over the course of half a decade or a decade. And this is the challenge he's now facing at City. The age balance of the squad is all wrong: DeBruyne is 33 and increasingly injury-prone, Walker and Gundogan are now 34, and appear no longer to have the legs for top-level competition, Bernardo Silva and John Stones are 30, Ake and Akanji will soon be turning 30; there are a lot of great young talents in the squad, but only a few - like Dias and Grealish - are in their 'prime' of mid- to late-20s. Now, player recruitment might be partly - or entirely?? - outside of Pep's control; these days, the Director of Football at a club often takes the lead on transfer trading (it is perhaps not coincidental that City's DoF, Txiki Begiristain, will be stepping down at the end of this season, after more than 12 years in the position). But many of City's acquisitions in recent years have been excessively expensive and ludicrously unfit-for-purpose (Jack Grealish?? Kalvin Phillips??). And the club has signally failed to procure any credible emergency back-up for Rodri or Haaland (they desperately need a 'Plan B' for the next time the big Viking gets injured, beyond trying to play Foden or Silva as a 'false 9'....).

But wait, does all of this tie together into some over-arching flaw in Pep's Manchester City? Yes, I think it does. 

The tactical aridity and the apparent distrust of attacking flair (too 'risky'!); the often thorny relationships with some players; the frequent reluctance to give regular starts to younger players (or players new to the club); the numerous seismic shifts in the tactical formation; the over-frequent rotation in some positions and complete lack of it in others; the large number of dissatisfied players leaving the club - these factors all contribute to Manchester City not being such an attractive destination as you'd expect it to be.... with its unique record of success in the English game and internationally, its revered and peerlessly innovative coach, and its near-bottomless coffers. Some players just don't want to go there, because they see how difficult it can be to get in the team, to stay in the team.... or to play the kind of football they enjoy playing, to 'play their own game' in this team. (You think Lamine Yamal or Nico Williams or Jamal Musiala would ever consider a move to City?? No way!!! Not if they have any sense, anyway.)

And the core failing I see in all of this is.... an exclusive focus on one-game-at-a-time, rather than the medium- or long-term good of the squad and the club. It seems to me that Pep is so afraid of failure in any single game that he can't bring himself to contemplate playing a 'non-ideal' eleven.... or a 'non-ideal' (in his view) formation and gameplan. Even if DeBruyne, in his dotage, is still better than Foden, you need to rest him more often - to get the best out of Foden, and encourage other young players coming up through your youth ranks. And you might have more chance of capturing a good alternate for Rodri if you showed a willingness to occasionally play a double-pivot - allowing both to play alongside each other - even if that's not your conception of an ideal system for this next game. Damn, yes, sometimes you have to be willing to put out a slightly 'weaker' side or utilise a slightly 'weaker' system for the long-term good of the squad. Pep has never done this; and so the City recruitment team have found it difficult/impossible to attract the new players they need for cover and rebuilding. And 'suddenly'.... everything's falling apart. Suddenly?? No, it's been a long time coming.

Oh, and there is one other Premier League manager who seems to me to demonstrate almost all of these same qualities! Unsurprisingly.... it is Pep's 'Mini-Me', Snr Arteta. Last summer's transfer window, when four fantastic young back-up players all quit in a huff, and the club was unable to land any of the big names it was after (well, not the crucial ones, anyway: I think Calafiori will prove to have been a good acquisition, but he didn't seem all that essential), was a disaster for Arsenal, leaving them with a significantly weaker squad than they had last season. And why did that happen, Mikel?

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott:

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW25

Damn, it seems like ages since we last had any EPL football! In the last two weeks, the winter transfer window has finally closed (with the usual flurry of late business on the final day), the delayed Merseyside derby has been caught up, the finalists for the League Cup Final have been determined, the new play-off stage for the European competitions has got under way, .... and the 4th Round of the FA Cup has inevitably produced a few more injury worries for us to ponder. Oh, and the damned new 'Assistant Manager' chip has been available for the first time in this Gameweek just past (and a lot of people were using it already...).

The biggest news for FPL is that Liverpool prevailed on the FA to move their GW29 fixture against Villa (the weekend they'll play the League Cup Final against Newcastle) forward rather than backwards - 'anteponing' it! (I really can't ever recall that happening before!!), so it's now scheduled for Wednesday 19th February..... making this a Double Gameweek for Liverpool and Villa (and the Scousers' second in successive weeks).

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 25?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Gabriel Martinelli came off in the FA Cup defeat to Newcastle last week with a hamstring problem; 'not too serious', but likely to keep him out for 3 or 4 weeks. Meanwhile, Kai Havertz has apparently picked up a similar - but reportedly much more severe - problem while Arsenal were taking a break for some warm-weather training.... which looks as though it could keep him out for most of the rest of the season. (Grim news for Arsenal, coming hot on the heels of their embarrassing failure to land any new players in the transfer window. At least this presumably means that Ethan Nwaneri and Leandro Trossard will be getting reliable minutes for a while; that could be interesting for FPL.)

Ezri Konsa also hobbled off with a leg muscle problem in the Cup win over Spurs; again, Emery thinks 'not too serious', but he is a major doubt for the current gameweek. (This presumably means that new loan signing Axel Disasi might come straight in, as Pau Torres is expected to be out for a few more weeks, and Tyrone Mings has only just resumed training after suffering a jarred knee a couple of weeks ago.) Ollie Watkins, withdrawn at half-time against Wolves with a groin muscle problem two weeks ago, has apparently resumed light training in the last couple of days, but is looking doubtful to be fully involved in the next two matches.

Lewis Dunk had to come off in the surprise Cup win against Chelsea last week with 'sore ribs', and seems unlikely to be available for Brighton this weekend.

Brentford keeper Mark Flekken missed the League game against Spurs two weeks ago because of strained side muscles, and continues to be a doubt this week, with his deputy Hakon Valdimarsson looking likely to step in again.

Both Nico Jackson and his understudy Marc Guiu picked up hamstring problems in the game against West Ham two weeks ago; Jackson is now thought likely to be out until the end of March, Guiu possibly even longer. (Could perhaps be an opportunity for 'forgotten man' Christopher Nkunku to become a surprise late-season FPL asset...?)

Ismaila Sarr missed Palace's Cup game on Monday night with an illness, Eddie Nketiah with a twisted ankle, and Eberechi Eze was simply treated to a precautionary rest (as his long-standing foot injury is still bothering him) - but Glasner thinks all three should be OK for the visit of Everton.

Everton's star man recently, Illiman Ndiaye, went off in Wednesday's rambunctious Merseyside derby after 20-odd minutes, having suffered a knock to his knee; no word yet on how serious it might be. Full-back Nathan Patterson is also missing again, with a hamstring problem picked up in training before last week's FA Cup games.

Reiss Nelson was apparently on the verge of being eligible for a comeback for Fulham, but has just injured his other hamstring in training and is now expected to be unavailable for more several weeks.

Ipswich's Sammie Szmodics, only just back from an ankle injury, had to come off in their FA Cup tie with a similar problem - possibly a recurrence of the same thing - and is now likely to be out again for some weeks.

Jamie Vardy and Jannik Vestergaard both missed Leicester's Cup game against Manchester United with training-ground knocks, but are expected to be available again this week.

Joe Gomez went off with a hamstring problem in Liverpool's shock Cup defeat to Plymouth Argyle: not 'that serious', but likely to make him a doubt for a few weeks at least (though you wouldn't expect him to be making any starts in the League while Konate and Van Dijk are fit). Cody Gakpo might also be a doubt, complaining of a knock when he came off against Everton.

Jack Grealish and Manuel Akanji both had to come off in the Champions League defeat to Real Madrid with a muscle injuries - yet more woe for Pep!

There seems to have been no official announcement yet on the knee injury suffered by Lisandro Martinez in the defeat against Palace two weeks ago, but it looked very much like an ACL tear - which would obviously keep him out until next season. (With Luke Shaw having apparently picked up yet another muscle injury in training, this at least surely means that Mazraoui will now be assured of a regular start on the left side of the back three - his best position - with Maguire and De Ligt as his preferred partners. A bit of stablility and continuity in the defence selections can only be a good thing for United.)

Sven Botman is again a doubt, after complaining of pain in his knee after the League Cup semi-final win over Arsenal. With Dan Burn picking up a muscle problem in the FA Cup tie against Brimingham, Newcastle are possibly looking spread thin at the back again. Joelinton will also be missing for a few weeks, after having to come off with a knee problem in the League game against Fulham at the start of the momth. At least Anthony Gordon has been spotted back in training this week, after missing the Birmingham game with a 'knock'.

Southampton defender Taylor Harwood-Bellis missed the FA Cup game after coming off at half-time in the League win at Ipswich two weeks ago with an ankle injury - should be in contention again this week, though.

The Spurs injury list gets even longer, with defender Radu Dragusin now out for the season after suffering an ACL injury in their Europa League game against Elfsborg; while Richarlison seems to have picked up a significant calf-muscle injury in the League Cup defeat to Liverpool.

Lucas Paqueta missed the Chelsea game two weeks ago with a groin problem, and is still a doubt.

Hwang Hee-Chan had to go off with a hamstring problem in Wolves's FA Cup win over Blackburn, but Pereira didn't think it was too serious.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Abdoulaye Doucoure and Curtis Jones are banned for this weekend after the little post-game fracas at Goodison Park on Wednesday, for which they both picked up second yellow cards after the final whistle.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

It looks rather as if the occasionally calamitous Robert Sanchez has finally lost his place in the Chelsea goal to Filip Jorgensen - although Maresca has been making noises about the Spaniard being 'given a rest' rather than dropped.... so, maybe he'll yet make a comeback. With Chelsea's recent form, not a very attractive pick anyway!

The recently even more disastrous Ari Muric at Ipswich will surely immediately lose his place beween the sticks to promising new signing Alex Palmer.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

The uncannily rejuvenated Everton stole all the attention this past gameweek, with a convincing win over Leicester and a fighting draw against Liverpool on Wednesday night. While James Tarkowski hogged the headlines with his improbable last-gasp equaliser in the derby, I thought his young partner Jarrad Branthwaite produced the better all-round defensive performance in that game; but the real standout was centre-forward Beto, who really seems to have found the 'magic boots' and is now playing with a swaggering confidence. Given that Everton now have a run of pretty soft fixtures until they have to face Liverpool again at the beginning of April, and that he only costs 4.9 million at the moment, I think he's definitely worth considering for a cheap third-seat filler.

I'm also intrigued to see if Ipswich can rouse themselves to fight off the threat of relegation. For me, they are the only club that has done really good transfer business in the window - bringing in three players, creative midfielder Julio Enciso, nippy winger Jaden Philogene, and an excellent goalie in Alex Palmer: players who might - almost certainlly will - start immediately, and perhaps have an immediate impact. The only other new transfer who excites my hopeful curiosity is Brighton's outstanding young forward Evan Ferguson - loaned to West Ham, where he really ought to have an excellent chance of regular starts.

The Sheep are all dumbly bleating about what a great prospect Unai Emery is for the Assistant Manager Chip this week - just because Villa have two games. It's nonsense, of course. Even at home, and with a full-strength squad, you wouldn't fancy Villa to have much of a chance against Liverpool; but particularly not when they might be missing their star striker, and four of their preferred defenders. This is in effect only a 'single gameweek' for them! (And honestly, I fancy Ipswich to have a better chance of getting an upset result against them, than they do against Liverpool.)

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott; the dratted new 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now - and I am urging everyone to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use this silly chip. 

And if you can't bring yourself to do either of those things, please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A corner turned?

Manchester City fans - and FPL managers who own any of their players - seem to be taking much encouragement from their emphatic 6-0 win this weekend.

But is this one success really a sign that their troubles are over? Are they really that much better?

Well, here are some of the potential positives:

Kyle Walker's gone now; that can only be a good thing. His pace and stamina have looked to be waning rapidly of late, and he's really begun to look as if he's past it at Premier League level. His last few performances, certainly, have been quite dreadful (perhaps he's also been distracted by his turbulent private life, or greedy thoughts of getting ready to take the Saudi money in the twilight of his career?), and he had become a liability to the team.

But Ruben Dias is back - that's HUGE, immediately makes them look so much more solid and well-organised and confident in defence.

Ederson's back too. Though Ortega is a a more than competent replacement (probably, in fact, as good as Ederson in most aspects of the goalkeeping craft; an excellent shot-stopper), Ederson is the man the rest of the team have been used to playing with most of the time, so his return to the side will also probably inject some comfortable - and confidence-building - familiarity to the rear of the lineup, a feeling which has been lacking of late. And his stellar distribution adds another dimension to City's game - allowing them the ready option to abandon the slow build-up from the back occasionally and try more direct medium-length or even long balls up the park... with sufficient accuracy to produce a high chance that they will reach, and be retained by a City player. (It does make you wonder why he was out of the side for so long in the first place, though. There may have been some small injury issues behind some of it, but it did look also as if Pep had some kind of a 'problem' with him for a while - a matter of not liking his 'attitude' about something, perhaps?)

Matheus Nunes is still struggling to adapt to the full-back role, but he's an intelligent and versatile player who should be able to master it eventually. And anything is an improvement on Walker....

Dropping Rico Lewis is also probably going to make the team stronger. I am a big fan - as Pep evidently is - of his enthusiasm and workrate, his game intelligence, the incisive contribution he can make in advanced midfield areas. But he's still very young and inexperienced, and he just doesn't have the physicality to be able to dominate in individual duels; playing him as a makeshift full-back, particularly when out-of-touch Walker was on the other flank, or alongside on the right of the defence, was asking for trouble. He had, unfortunately, become - yet another - obvious defensive weakness that opponents can ruthlessly target.

Gundogan and Kovacic playing together as a double-pivot, and trying to sit a little deeper, does appear to provide the potential for a little more solidity in central midfield.

Kevin DeBruyne is starting to look something like his best again now. It has taken a while for him to get his 'match-fitness' back, and his contributions in his first few games back from injury had been rather intermittent. But in this one, he was a constant threat and supplied three assists.

And damn, yes, Erling Haaland is looking as though he has definitively rediscovered his scoring touch. (Although I've always tended to think that there was never much wrong with his form or confidence. He'd just been starved of service while the rest of the team was floundering so badly over the previous couple of months.)

And perhaps best of all, Phil Foden has not just got his scoring boots back, but seems to have rekindled his joie de vivre as well. This is the first time in a long while we've seen him looking so happy and confident, showing such exuberant joy on the pitch.

And a lot of people are also saying that the arrival of the pacey Egyptian forward Omar Marmoush could have a transformative effect for City in the near future. Adam Monk of FourFourTwo rates his prospects with the club very highly. He does appear to have a skills profile and versatility somewhat similar to the departed Julian Alvarez - perhaps enabling him to sometimes play alongside Haaland as a strike partner, as well as to fulfill a number of different attacking midfield roles through the middle or on either flank (rather than being merely an emergency replacement for Haaland).

Yes, there's a lot to take comfort from there. But I believe there are many, rather stronger counter-points:

Well, that victory was only against Ipswich; and Ipswich were really, really poor in that game - just gave up the ghost after the first couple of goals. Proving that you're not one of the four worst teams in the League isn't really evidence of any seismic shift in performance.

Dias still doesn't look quite 100% - and you worry if Pep might be rushing him back into the fray just a little bit, perhaps putting him at risk of a recurrence of his injury. (So, indeed, it would appear! The poor bloke broke down during the PSG game just a few days later, and had to be withdrawn at half-time. Ooops!)  Also, excellent though he is, he can't hold things together at the back entirely on his own; he needs Stones and Ake to be back in action too.

Matheus Nunes is not a natural full-back, and is struggling to adapt to the position at the moment (it's probably not helping when Pep switches him from one side to the other), and he has been making a lot of mistakes thus far. Also, it just seems to be a bit of a waste of his talents; it is quite baffling that Pep doesn't seem to fancy playing him in his best position in central midfield - especially since that is the area of the pitch where his worst problems are manifesting themselves. [JJ Bull of The Athletic recently suggested that he'd do better to reunite with Ruben Amorim at Manchester United and play in a double-pivot with Manuel Ugarte there.]

While Rico Lewis has occasionally looked a bit of a liability defensively, he's nevertheless been one of City's best players this season, and it is therefore, I think, unfortunate to abandon him completely. There ought to be a way to make use of him in a more advanced role.

Gundogan, unfortunately, now looks hopelessly out-of-his-depth at the top level, just does not have any legs any more. Pep seems to be guilty of a misplaced loyalty here, or an exaggerated gratitude for his past contributions, or is perhaps overrating the value of experience. Playing Gundogan as a defensive midfielder now has much the same effect as Casemiro has whenever Amorim is forced to field him at United: it's just an open invitation to the opponents to come marauding through the central areas at will.

And Mateo Kovacic, bless him, is a fantastic progressive No. 6, great passer of the ball, dangerous when pushing forward himself - but doesn't have a defensive bone in his body; he completely lacks the all-around awareness, the instinct to spot danger that is required for a stopper role. Persisting with him as a Rodri replacement is the main root of City's current problems. And those problems are NOT going to go away unless they can acquire a top-class defensive midfielder in this transfer window. (And I think they might have to settle for a loan deal on that - because who's going to transfer into a club to be a perpetual understudy to someone like Rodri for the next five years?)

DeBruyne still doesn't look 100% fit (not sure if this is so, but I read somewhere that he might have a small hernia - much like the problem that so impeded Son Heung-min last season; not a major disability, but a constant, niggling inhibitor of performance). And he's starting to show his age. It is probably not reasonable to expect him to ever quite regain the pinnacle of performance he was demonstrating a few years ago.

Haaland, of course, could still deliver some big goalscoring returns. But he's not the kind of player who - like Salah or Palmer or Mbeumo.... - creates chances for himself out of nothing; he needs good regular service. And I fear he's still likely to be often lacking that from this City side. Moreover, game states can have a big impact on patterns of play and on a striker's mentality: there's a lot of extra pressure on the main goalscorer when you're chasing the game - and City look like they might still quite often be chasing games.

I am a huge fan of Phil Foden, and I - more than anyone! - really hope that he has turned a corner this season, that he has ironed something out in his relationship with Pep that has restored his confidence, and that he is going to continue now to play with the effervescence he showed last Sunday. But that hope is still fragile. Phil thrived on the security of being an almost invariable starter for most of last season, in DeBruyne's absence, and on being given the responsibility of being the club's primary playmaker. And he thrives on being able to play in central areas as a highly mobile No. 10. If Pep is going to constantly swap his starting position around, and mostly ask him to play out wide on one of the flanks, I fear this new flowering of goalscoring form may soon wither again.

And I think it may be unreasonable to expect Omar Marmoush to be The Messiah to redeem City. He has not been an especially prolific scorer (apart from one very hot streak for Frankfurt earlier this season); in fact, until he moved to Frankfurt just under 18 months ago, he was almost entirely unacquainted with the goal. And, you know, the Bundesliga isn't exactly the same level of competition as the Premier League: even its top clubs would probably struggle against most of our leading teams; the majority of teams in that league would struggle in the Championship.

And, ahem, City now have one of the toughest runs of fixtures coming up that any side - certainly any top side - has to face in the second half of the season (along with two crunch games to try to avoid the ignominy of Champions League elimination at the group stage... and the dear old FA Cup). They might have a real struggle for points from now until some time in March: Chelsea, Arsenal, Newcastle, Liverpool, Spurs (terrible at the moment; but a bogey team for City in recent years), and Nottingham Forest is an horrendous sequencc. Brighton, Manchester United and Crystal Palace - and a fighting-for-their-lives Leicester - might not be a pushover after that either. The way City were playing up until a few weeks ago, it would not have been outrageous to suggest they might lose all of them. And I'm afraid I still think it's very likely they'll lose at least half of them.

So - NO, sorry; I am not at all convinced we've yet seen any clear sign of a City renaissance.

[And sure enough, the very next night they got absolutely torn apart by Paris St Germain. Despite rather fortuitously opening up a two-goal lead in the first half, they were outplayed for almost the whole game and ended up getting spanked 4-2.... and it might have been much worse.  City's problems are deep-seated and persistent. They might be capable of significant improvement.... but they're not about to get GOOD again any time soon.]

A week further on, they have scraped through into the knockout stage of the Champions League - but only by the skin of their teeth! Again, City can't take much comfort from a fairly dismal performance against Club Brugge: they were regularly cut open by the Belgian side on the counter-attack, conceded the first goal... and very nearly went behind again when Greek forward Christos Tzolis cracked a low 20-yard shot inches wide of the post - with Ederson rooted to the spot. If that one had gone in, I doubt if City could have found a way back into the game. 

And their ultimately fairly comfortable win over Chelsea at the weekend was a bit of a head-scratcher - really more down to Chelsea being surprisingly lacklustre rather than City being at all brilliant. They are still looking... well, not just a pale shadow of the team that dominated every competition in the the last few years, but a completely different team; a much, much worse team, a really rather shambolic team, who look like they could not just get beaten but properly spanked by just about any half-decent side. In his post-match interview on Sunday, Pep was again extremely downbeat; positively careworn and depressed-looking. And he came out with one of the most self-damning remarks I think I've ever heard from a Premier League manager, when he said, "Without the ball, we are one of the worst teams. We need the ball to survive."  No, even Pep doesn't think City are any good again yet. They're hanging on by their fingernails, only occasionally giving themselves a chance in games by trying even harder than usual never to give the ball away. But no team manages never to give the ball away; and, at the moment, every time City give the ball away, they look like they might concede a goal.

Luck-o-Meter (32)

Well, amazingly, no major new injuries appear to have resulted from this week's batch of BIG European games. But we still had quite a few problems hanging over our heads from last week... And with HUGE European second-legs loomng for five teams, the risk of rest rotations is a big hazard for this week.

This week also sees the long overdue introduction of the Semi-Automated Offside Technology, replacing the laborious, inaccurate, unconvincing manual placing of thick coloured lines on the freezeframe view with detailed computer graphic renderings of the players' relative positions. It's not going to be infallible (though the main problem with 'fairness' lies in  the framing of the Law itself; we shouldn't be seeking to make offside determinations to a fraction of an inch - if part of the torso is 'level', overlapping with a defender's, the position of an attacker's toe or a nose shouldn't matter), and it's going to take some time to convince us that it's even moderately accurate and reliable, but.... it's got to be an improvement, surely. [ESPN has quite a good overview of how the new system is supposed to work and why it's been introduced.]

Well, what an absurd bish-bosh of a game we had to start the weekend off - one of the best games of the entire season: not perhaps the greatest football, but the most entertaining end-to-end contest. There were so many potential 'turning points' one might argue the significance of in this (the xG numbers were ridiculous!): Henderson making a great early save from Marmoush, DeBruyne crashing a shot against the post shortly afterwards, KDB then squeezing a free-kick in off the inside of the post to launch the improbable comeback, McAtee spurning three excellent chances before finally converting one,... and, of course, the amphetamines with which Pep obviously spiked the half-time lemon juice. For me, the slightly harsh early booking of Kamada could have been a more subtly decisive moment, subsequently robbing Palace of some of their bite in midfield. (And the withdrawal of Mateta for Hughes by Glasner at half-time was a bit of a head-scratcher - was it 'tactical'? What was the idea??) But really the game swung on the new offside decision-making system: Eze's apparent second - which would have put Palace 3-0 up, and even a superlative DeBruyne and Marmoush would have struggled to inspire a comeback from that - looked onside, but he was adjudged to have been offside by the length of his boot (possibly the 'correct' decision, but it will be hard to earn fans' confidence in calls like this; and it obviously doesn't feel fair to chalk off a good goal for such a trivial infraction), whereas young Nico O'Reilly looked well offside in providing the pre-assist for the crucial third City goal early in the second half, but was apparently 'on'.... by the width of a ruckle on the shoulder of a defender's shirt - WTF? And although the decisions themselves are being produced fairly quickly, there may still be issues about the speed with which the justifying images can be rendered - or shared with the public: the graphic of the Eze offside didn't show up on TV until nearly a quarter of an hour later!  Sharing the images promptly is going to be a key part of winning public confidence in this new system.

S9, a wonderful spectacle at The Etihad, and a fine swansong performance by one of the all-time Premier League greats, but.... boy, oh boy, City dodged a bullet in this one; in at least half of the possible universes, they must have gone down to Palace's blistering start. (A uniquely FPL concern in this match was Eze taking a painful whack to the leg early in the second half, and looking like he might have to be pulled just shy of the hour. He was visibly slowed down by the challenge, and was withdrawn less than 20 minutes later - so, I worry he might now be a doubt for the Wednesday game against Newcastle.)

Leicester managed to score a goal for the first time in three months! Then they did it again. And they nearly nicked a win in the dying minutes when El-Khannouss cracked one against the far post. The visitors might also feel aggrieved that they didn't get a  first-half penalty when McAteer was barged to the ground by Estupinan in the corner of the box: one of those incidents that might be arguable, but at least deserved a good long ponder from VAR - and didn't seem to get it. There wasn't any doubt about either of the Brighton penalties at least; the mystery there was why VAR needed to intervene when they were both so obvious they really should have been spotted by the on-pitch referee straight away. But damn, Ruud van Nistelrooy very nearly pulled off a table-bonus win - which would have brought much joy to the 427 FPL managers brave or foolish enough to have chosen him for their 'Assistant Manager' this week.

Doucoure's late, late winner for Everton at Forest was just about deserved, in what had been an entertaining stalemate. With a few of their best players absent or compromised - Aina still in the treatment room, Elanga unable to start, Wood only just back from the troublesome hip injury, looking rather ponderous - Forest were inevitably a bit flat, but looked much more dangerous in the second half. I'm pleased I predicted the likelihood of an 'upset' here - Moyes keeps pulling off these results! Both Wood and Beto got tumbled to the ground inside the box; both might have been fairly light or 'accidental' collisions, but they were both the sort of penalty appeals that are often given - and they seemed substantial enough to merit far more than the apparently very cursory VAR attention they were given. And Jarrad Branthwaite was very, very lucky to escape a red card (actually, any card at all??) for blatantly shoulder-charging Jota Silva in the side of the head. It was an obviously deliberate piece of thuggery, and the kind of challenge which could cause a very serious injury (probably did cause a concussion - which is another issue; why wasn't Silva taken off the field for checks?). What was VAR doing here?

Villa were pretty lacklustre against Southampton, as they invariably have been after their big European games this year - only really starting to look much of a threat in the final half hour or so. Even then, they needed a bit of luck - with Watkins's smart volleyed chip for the breakthrough only just scudding in off the underside of the bar, and two very soft penalty awards breaking the home side's morale, even if they weren't converted (both incidents were blocks rather than challenges, where the Villa player clearly initiated contact with a defender's outstretched leg [actually, for the second one, Stephens played the ball!]: I wouldn't have given either of them; and what on earth was going on with Asensio taking the second, and hitting it in exactly the same place as the first, allowing Ramsdale to make exactly the same save??); and Emi Martinez had to make two very sharp saves, one early from Archer, one late from Fernandes, to spare Villa some potential embarrassment. FPL managers who rushed to bring in more Villa players ahead of their upcoming double gameweek are probably mostly a bit disappointed with their returns here... and they might be even more disappionted after next week.

Arsenal dropped points again against Brentford (again, not exactly unexpected). What was unexpected, in a fairly dour encounter, was that Rice would combine with Partey for a high-speed breakaway goal (far more of a Mbeumo-and-Wissa thing)! Or that Saka, on for the last 25 minutes, would fail to convert when presented with the ball on the edge of the box by one of the worst goalkeeping errors of the season (Flekken decides to step out of his box to deal with a long clearance from Raya which is obviously going to come all the way through to him to gather safetly in his hands... and then elects to try to control the ball rather than hoof it to safety - WTF???). The BBC pundits were outraged that Norgaard got away with a rash scissor-tackle on Martinelli - but he trapped the Arsenal man's legs between his own rather than making any heavy contact with them: only a yellow card, for me.

The most bizarre thing about the Chelsea game (well, apart from the hosts being carved open on the counter-attack by Ipswich twice in the first twenty-odd minutes!!) was the linesman flagging an offside against Ipswich's second goal, when no-one had been anywhere near offside (presumably he'd been looking at the wrong Chelsea defender, failing to notice that the one on the far side had been a yard or so deeper?); and then, even more bizarrely, it took VAR an agonisingly long time - 2 or 3 minutes - to correct this very obvious error. It would seem there are still some teething problems with the new SAO system, or with how it's being used. So, that was an assist and a goal for right-back Ben Johnson - how many people own him??  (1.7%!! I'm surprised it's that many.)  Chelsea were oddly toothless, apart from a lively start (the momentum was with them for 15 or 20 minutes, after Jackson smashed a shot against the near-post in the opening minute) and a spell of pressure chasing the win at the end (when Cole Palmer had his obligatory near-miss - fingertipped to safety by Alex Palmer - and Enzo Fernandes saw a fierce drive clawed away one-handed by the excellent Ipswich keeper in the closing minutes); it took two goals-out-of-nothing - a fast break down the wing from Madueke to set up Cucurella in the opening seconds after the restart (which somehow got credited as an own-goal??), and a brilliant solo effort from Sancho - to salvage a draw (and George Hirst had come within inches of putting the visitors 3-1 ahead). There is something still very not right about Chelsea.

West Ham produced a much better performance than they have for weeks, and provided Liverpool with quite a stern test - but the champions-elect still ultimately breezed through fairly comfortably. If things had just broken a bit more kindly for them, they could easily have won by a landslide: Luis Diaz might have had a hattrick, Macallister might have had 4 or 5, and Salah curled an early effort inches wide - which would probably won 'Goal of the Season' had it gone in. And VAR somehow decided to let James Ward-Prowse off for a particularly blatant handball in the penalty area (yes, the ball was coming to him very fast, but his arm was fully extended... and moving towards the ball, with apparent intent...).  As it was, they needed several outstanding saves from Alisson to protect a slender lead, and a late header from Van Dijk to clinch it (to atone for his dreadful own-goal a little earlier; a major piece of 'luck' in itself - he doesn't score very many goals, but here he managed to get one for both sides within the space of 3 minutes??!!). And even then, Fullkrug still gave the home fans palpitations when he looped a header against the crossbar in the dying seconds.

Oh dear, oh dear - Ange Postecoglou has been using his long injury-list as his excuse all season; but a lot of his key men are back now,.... and Spurs are playing worse than ever. Nicking consolatory goals through Tels and Richarlison - to almost get back in the game - really flattered them excessively; in truth, they were absolutely bulldozered at Molyneux, and provided one of the most shambolic defensive performances we've seen from any team all season. Things might have been even worse if the in-form Strand Larsen hadn't contrived to screw an effort a quarter-of-an-inch wide of an open goal.... but we can let him off for that one, as he was lying on his back at the time! If Spurs can't pull off a win against Frankfurt on Thursday to progress to the Europa League semi-finals, I imagine Ange will be leaving the club next weekend. Losing so comprehensively, to a club below you in the table, who were until recently deep in the relegation mire - that, I think, is a humiliation too far for the long-suffering Spurs fans. [Interestingly, I can't seem to find any current odds on Ange getting the sack - which may suggest that it's become such an overwhelmingly popular punt that the bookies aren't accepting the bet any more?! The Sun was apparently quoting him as being only 15/8 a week ago; strange, since he's been odds-on for three or four months now! If I could find odds like that anywhere, I'd definitely risk a fair wedge of money on it! The only thing that's saved Ange this long is the Spurs' fanbase's passionate dislike of their Chairman, Daniel Levy, who most of them want to blame for the team's dismal performances - rather than the flailing manager.]

Was Ruben Amorim being brutal or compassionate in dropping Andre Onana this week? The United keeper had been coming in for a fair bit of stick in recent weeks already, but might well be having a bit of an emotional implosion after the flak he received for his two costly fumbles in the Europa League game this week, His sudden omission is a blow to the nearly 5.5% of FPL managers that still own him (and he's actually not a terrible choice: he's still the 5th highest-returning keeper for the season; joint 4th for clean sheets, joint 7th for number of 'saves' points - and he picked up a massive 11 FPL points in last week's derby game!!). His deputy Altay Bayindir looked pretty sharp in protecting the goal, but often got rattled by Newcastle's relentless high pressing - and ended up giving the ball away to gift Guimaraes a fourth goal; that leaves quite the selection conundrum for next week! Manchester had started quite brightly, though, with Zirkzee contriving an early chance from a delightful quick interchange on the edge of the box with Bruno Fernandes that would have been a 'Goal of the Season' contender - but for a superb save from Nick Pope. Anthony Gordon was well enough to come on for the last 12 minutes; so the 8% who own him will be desperately hoping he can now start against Palace on Wednesday.

There don't seem to have been any wildly dubious refereeing calls in the Monday night game at Bournemouth, although there was some argument about whether Senesi should have received a straight red card for a high challenge on Andersen. The home side appeared completely dominant, despite only winning by Semenyo's solitary  goal in the opening minute (which must have come as a mighty relief to the 7.5% of managers who still - unfathomably - own him, despite his having only produced 2 assists and ZERO goals in the last 10 matches); Evanilson crashed a close-range shot against the underside of the crossbar, and Leno had to make two very sharp saves. Curiously, Kepa at the other end was credited with 7 saves, which - in a relatively 'uneventful' game - was enough to secure him maximum bonus points as well (he's only owned by 2..9%; surprisingly low, given his excellent recent form and fairly easy closing run of fixtures; but I'd bet almost all of his owners left him on the bench this week - ouch!); however, only ONE of those saves made it into the club's highlights reel for the game - and that was a relatively rroutine stop, from a long-range curler from Iwobi. Meanwhile, the outstanding Alex Scott got no love from the BPS at all...

Palace completely forgot to turn up for their second fixture of the week at Newcastle, surely their worst performance of the season. The scoreline wasn't at all flattering to Newcastle, as it was really one-way traffic, and they might have scored twice as many - although Isak kept failing to convert chances, Henderson pull off one superb one-handed save early on, and the home side needed a fair slice of luck to get things rolling: Murphy's opener was clearly a mishit cross rather than a shot, and Barnes's second needed a huge deflection off the unfortunate Guehi to slip past the keeper. The only moment of mild controversy came from the penalty decision - which was a tough call to make since VAR appeared to have only one view of the incident.... in which the contact with Richards was obscured by another Newcastle defender in front of him jumping for the ball. Given that the Palace man was laid out by the impact, I think the penalty award was probably fair enough - although we usually see keepers able to get away with clattering people in order to get to the ball... even if they don't actually get to the ball; and here, Pope did. So, a bit of an odd one: if it wasn't deliberate, it shouldn't have been a penalty; but if it was, he surely should have been sent off for it. As it turned out, the penalty award didn't matter, since Eze claimed the prize for The Worst Penalty Kick of the Season; really, one questions if Pope should even be credited with a 'save' for this, since Eze essentually just passed the ball to him. A cruel blow for Eze's FPL owners; and a huge piece of unearned good fortune for Pope's!!

A particularly topsy-turvy week then: a week of some great individual performances.... and some really poor team ones! A LOT of goals (41!), but most of them from fairly unexpected sources... After the weekend games, the 'Team of the Week' was one of the most eccentric collections we've seen all season, containing no-one that anyone would own - apart from Van Dijk and Air-Nouri, and maybe Joao Pedro; that didn't change much with the final two games,... except that suddenly 5 Newcastle players muscled their way into the lineup! 3 'penalty saves' is a very rare eventuality as well (though really all of them were down to utterly appalling spot-kicks rather than any great heroics from the keepers). VAR missed 3 fairly obvious penalties, yet 2 were awarded wrongly to Villa; while Senesi, Norgaard, and perhaps Pope were lucky to escape sendings-off, and Branthwaite definitely should have been dismissed; and a few unreasonably tight offside calls again...

This one's a 7 out of 10 kind of week on the 'Luck-o-Meter', with a few key decisions that were certainly highly questionable, if not wrong, and some ding-dong games, unexpected results. Not the worst refereeing week we've seen; but very far from the best, either.

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  Most people will have played the dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip by now; but if you haven't.... it's not too late to refuse to do so! I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season when it was introduced in GW23. [I worry that, if people don't protest vociferously about it, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you didn't feel able to join me in such an emphatic gesture, I hope you at least thought about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip (and still might refuse, if you've kept it till the last few gameweeks of the season).

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Players of the Year

 

Following on from my survey last week of how the 2024-25 season panned out in FPL, here is a rundown of the most valuable player picks in the game this year.

Jordan Pickford was obviously a strong choice between the sticks for the season, given his propensity for pulling off large numbers of saves when his team are getting pummelled, but with his defence being solid enough to help him keep a fair few clean sheets as well; and given the fact that he ended last season well out in front in the FPL goalkeeper rankings. However, with his being priced at 5.0 million, one might have preferred to go for two 4.5 options instead (at least at first, to save a bit of money in the initial squad) - or to have switched to that, when Everton started the season so poorly. Apart from huge hauls against Newcastle (of course!) and West Ham, he only really started hitting form around a third of the way through the season. Matz Sels and Dean Henderson were always the better bets for me (though Henderson and Palace became significantly stronger in the second half of the season); and indeed, Sels was only edged out of top spot by Pickford in the final week, so I would still go for the Nottingham Forest man as the keeper of the season - more consistent in his returns than Pickford, and more keenly priced.

Kepa and Areola and Sanchez also looked promising in spells, but you don't really want to be swapping keepers around too much. Raya never quite convinced for me; he never got higher than 3rd in the goalie rankings, I don't think, and was often outside the Top 5. Brentford's Mark Flekken - somewhat surprisingly! - managed to be in overall contention as well, just creeping into the Top 5 goalkeepers in the latter part of the season; largely down to the huge number of saves his defensively frail side needed him to make, which made up for a rather paltry total of just 7 clean sheets. I'm always wary of taking a keeper from a defensively weak team, though: that saves-for-clean-sheets trade-off is extremely risky! And Flekken is fundamentally not a very good keeper; although significantly improved this year (he doesn't have a massive negative 'delta' on his GC/xGC, a surplus of goals conceded over the 'expected' figure, as he did the previous year; but it's still not a positive number, which is what you're looking for from a good keeper), he's still been at fault, I think, for a lot of the goals Brentford have let in.

Trent Alexander-Arnold missed a spell with injury, and was rotated with Conor Bradley a few times over the closing month or so; both entirely predictable dents in his season total, and factors which had always argued against him being an ironclad season-long hold. Early in the season, it had looked as if he might just about justify his outrageous 7.0-million starting price-tag; but he was only ever just on the cusp of doing so, never absolutely nailing it; Slot just wasn't using him in the advanced overlapping role he'd need to get close to the double-digit assists he'd recorded in a few of his highest-scoring seasons. As it was, he came up just shy of 150 points for the season, which would barely justify a 6.0-million asking price, let alone 7.0 million. As with Haaland, though, Trent fans may have benefitted from a hot start (41 points from the first 7 games); if they'd switched to other premium options after that, they would have had an advantage over the season.

Josko Gvardiol ended up in top spot among the defenders (apparently confounding my eve-of-season view that he was over-hyped). However, he only snuck into 1st place in the final weeks of the season, after claiming 6 clean sheets in his last 9 games - somewhat fortuitously, I felt, since City still looked very shakey at the back in these games, despite facing mostly quite weak opponents. He only managed just over 150 points, which is not a great return for 6.0-million-pound defender (and not very much ahead of a bunch of 4.5 options); and he only edged Trent Alexander-Arnold and Gabriel out of the lead because he was almost ever-present throughout the season (which cannot have been expected at the start of the year, since Pep tends to rotate heavily among his defenders), while his two leading rivals both missed a lot of games. I maintain he was a risky and unpromising pick - at that price-point - at the beginning of the season, but was probably worth getting in from around the mid-point onwards, once City started to rally from their slump a little (he got 89 points in the last 20 games - which is value for the price-tag). 

The much fancied Pedro Porro (nearly 30% ownership at the start of the season, and it soared even higher in the following few weeks after he got off to a flyer by claiming a goal in the opening match against Leicester) ultimately disappointed the most among the initially popular defensive picks. He missed several games with injuries, so a haul of 2 goals and 6 assists was pretty good from a limited number of starts; but his owners had greedily - unrealistically - been expecting a lot more from him. And of course, despite quite a good attacking return from him, Spurs's defensive form completely fell apart, and he came up shy of a ton for the season.

My observation from back in October that we didn't seem likely to see any really big returns from defenders this year proved accurate. The tweak in the BPS, penalising defenders and keepers more heavily for goals conceded, makes it significantly harder for them to win bonus points. Arsenal's defensive form of last season was a bit of a freak; neither they nor anyone else could get anywhere near that number of clean sheets again. And there has been a sharp shift in EPL game tactics away from the type of full-back who pushes far foward all the time, linking up with the wide forward to create overlaps, pushing to the byline to provide crosses or cutbacks; we just don't see that level of attacking contribution from anyone at the moment. And that means that it must be rather questionable whether premium defenders are worth it any more. You really want to get something like 160 points from a 6.0-million-pound defender, at least 170 or 180 from one who costs any more than that - and this season, no-one got close to that. (At least, in recent times, that has been the calculus. We might have to revise our expectations downwards, if this trend persists. At least there was NO BUDGET PRESSURE this season, once the Haaland issue was closed, so we could afford to pay a little over-the-odds for the top-scoring defenders, even though they weren't giving great value-for-money.)

For me, Gabriel was the outstanding defensive pick of the year, until that hamstring injury unfortunately wiped him out for the last 9 games (he was well ahead of Gvardiol at that point). Of course, his Arsenal central defensive partner Wiliam Saliba wasn't too far behind (although he was looking a little less imperious, a little more fallible than in the previous two seasons); but Gabriel enjoyed a clear edge by virtue of being the main aerial target-man at set-pieces, which are such a key source of goals for the club. Ben White and Jurrien Timber might have out-performed either of them, if injuries and rotations hadn't so limited their minutes; next season, they might perhaps be the more tempting choices from the Arsenal defence.

Nottingham Forest's excellent defensive form was the revelation of the season. Their towering Serbian centre-back Nikola Milenkovic, ended up being the most popular FPL selection from them, with ownership up around 20% for a while. As with Gabriel, his aerial threat at set-pieces gave him a slight edge over his colleagues, and he produced 5 goals over the season. However, Murillo and Ola Aina also produced very good points, despite a few short injury absences; and Neco Williams also shows strong potential (although it's hard to be confident who will start at left-back, with Alex Moreno and Harry Toffolo offering some stiff competition for the place).

Daniel Munoz, Milos Kerkez, Antonee Robinson, and Rayan Ait-Nouri are the only full-backs who do still offer good prospects of attacking returns, but the latter two had fairly disappointing seasons: Robinson's output dropped off a cliff from January, while Ait-Nouri's only intermittently began to improve after the mid-season change of manager at Wolves. Hall and Livramento at Newcastle also showed some promise, as did Mykolenko at Everton, and in the latter part of the season, Wan-Bissaka at West Ham. However, none of these began to approach the kind of points totals we've seen in the recent past from Kieran Trippier, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Joao Cancelo - or even Ben White last year.

In the absence of much attacking output from defenders this year, the dependable Virgil Van Dijk was once again among the top performers - finishing narrowly ahead of Munoz and Kerkez. However, for most of the season, his partner Ibrahima Konate was offering the same points for less money - so, I don't think Virgil was ever an ideal, much less 'essential' pick.

Bournemouth's Dean Huijsen was the 'pleasant surprise' of the season: one of the oustanding young defensive talents to emerge in recent years. He only attained a regular start when Marcos Senesi got injured at the start of December, but made an immediate impression, and racked up a fairly impressive (for a defender...) average of 4 points per start for the rest of the season, despite Bournemouth's indifferent form in the latter stages. His ownership in FPL eventually climbed above 5% - despite Kerkez (and Zabarnyi and Kepa) claiming most people's attention as a prime defensive pick from his club. It's such a pity that he's been poached by Real Madrid already; but perhaps we'll see him return to the Premier League one day.

Mo Salah, of course, is a no-contest for the 'most valuable player' of the year, in any position; despite his advancing years, and the uncertainties of bedding in a new manager at Liverpool, he smashed his own record for the most FPL points in a season, and pulled out a lead of more than 100 over the next best. Bryan Mbeumo was a gallant runner-up, amply confirming and building upon the promise he'd shown in the previous two seasons. He did suffer one mini-blip from around the start of November, when Brentford dropped 8 points in 5 games, and Mbeumo recorded only 1 assist, and did suddenly look strangely out of sorts (it seemed possible that he was not adapting well to sharing goalscoring duties with just-back-from-injury Yoane Wissa - but, if that was ever the case, they soon developed a good understanding and were both producing alongside each other throughout the second half of the season); I - like many others - was prompted to cut him loose for a while, as he was facing a tricky turn in the fixtures as well; but, of course, he then found his scoring boots again and notched goals against Newcastle, Chelsea, and Arsenal in December. However, these were about the only two midfielders that you could 'set-and-forget' this year.

Jarrod Bowen was arguably the third, producing one of his best and most consistent seasons (apart from a four-game spell he missed with a cracked bone in his foot, he never 'blanked' more than once or twice in a row all season, and ended up with 6 double-digit hauls) - despite the handicap of playing for a relegation-worthy West Ham side. However, all the other most fancied midfield prospects frustrated and disappointed to some extent. 

Cole Palmer, increasingly vilified by the FPL hordes later in the season, had started off the new campaign just as devastatingly as he'd played most of the previous year; he was in fact running the great Mo Salah very close through the early months of the campaign (slightly ahead of him at the end of Gameweek 6!!), and was looking on course for a 300-point season. And if Chelsea had been awarded something like the same number of penalties as last year, rather than fewer than half as many (and they really were shockingly unlucky in this, especially early in the season: in almost every game, they seemed to be having one or two very strong shouts for a spot-kick inexplicaby ignored by both the referee and VAR), he would probably still have equalled his last year's total of 244, despite the dramatic fall-off in the second half of his season. I maintained that he was still playing extremely well, but without the steel of Lavia in the middle, and with no fit forwards to spearhead their attack, Chelsea began to look increasingly clueless from early December onwards. Despite the huge drop-off in his returns from that point on, Palmer was still the 3rd biggest FPL points-scorer of the season. So, he was certainly worth having - indeed, essential, I would have said - from the start of the season; and arguably, perhaps, as a season-long hold, since with players of that rare calibre, there's always a chance they'll come up with a big haul from time to time, however badly their team is playing. Despite Chelsea's faltering form, Palmer recorded goals against Fulham, Palace, and Bournemouth around the turn of the year. With the benefit of hindsight, you can say that it would have been best to jettison him soon after Gameweek 20; but it was difficult - it would indeed have been over-hasty and rash - to make such a call at the time.

As so often, when an exceptional player has his FPL productivity start to dry up, it's very difficult to judge when to let them go. There was an odd combination of circumstances - Palmer occasionally still producing an outstanding individual performance that rekindled hope in faithful owners, Chelsea occasionally showing hints of a general improvement, so many of the likely alternatives to Palmer getting injured (Saka, Amad, Bowen, Son), a promising turn in the club's fixtures just ahead, etc. - that encouraged me to stick with him longer than I probably should have. But as I said, a player like him can come good again at any moment; unless there's a really compelling alternative pick you can swap him out for, you might as well just continue gambling on him. This time, that gamble ultimately didn't pay off; but in another season - perhaps with Palmer, perhaps with another top player - it might.

None of the other top prospects quite came up with the goods this year, not with sufficient consistency, or over any extended period, anyway. Bukayo Saka looked as if he might have an extraordinary season, bringing up his ton in just 14 games (one of which he'd had to sit out with a slight knock); but soon afterwards, he was wiped out for much of the season with a serious hamstring tear. Although he surprised us by getting fit again in time for the last two months of the campaign, he got very rationed minutes in that comeback spell and, apart from a fairytale goal in his return appearance, failed to have any further FPL impact.

Ebere Eze managed to stay fit for most of the year, and almost invariably looked Palace's best player - but didn't have much to show for that for long stretches of the season. That unjustly disallowed goal that he put straight in from a free-kick at the start of the season really set the tone; he seemed to be having near-misses - battering a post, drifting a delicate curler inches wide, pulling a top-drawer save out of the keeper - in very nearly every game: if even one of those had gone in, it might have galvanized him into a 200-point season. I'm sure he's got that in him. This time, though, you probably didn't want to think of bringing him in until the last couple of months of the season.

Kaoru Mitoma is another player who strikes me as particularly 'unlucky' - the kind of player who's always setting up potential assists that his teammates then squander, or who has actual assists denied him because a lunging defender got a toe-end on his deft cutback before it reached the Brighton forward. And of course, it doesn't help that his Brighton team were exhibiting even more yo-yo form than usual this year. However, he still managed 10 goals in all, including the 'Goal of the Season' - so, not too shabby. Unfortunately, he just never managed a consistent enough run of form to make him a really attractive FPL acquisition this year. If you happened to be on him when he managed 4 big hauls in 6 games in January/February, you were very fortunate.

The (mis)fortunes of Luis Diaz also regularly break my heart. I think he's been Liverpool's best player, after Salah, over the past few years; but the cruellest combinations of circumstances always contrive to deny him the FPL points that would fully reflect that. This year, he didn't start 10 games, was often subbed off with 15 or 20 minutes left in those he did start (and once, shy of the hour mark!), and was most often played through the middle rather than in his preferred left-flank role. Yet he still managed 13 goals and 7 assists over the season, and was neck-and-neck with Bowen for the 4th best midfielder slot!! Imagine what he could achieve if Slot started him every week, in his best position.

Diogo Jota is arguably even more ill-starred. He made quite a promising start with Liverpool this time, racking up 34 points in in the first 7 games (effectively only 5 games, as he had to come off early against Forest, and then missed the following match against Bournemouth). However, he then - inevitably - picked up a medium-term injury, and when he came back was mostly used as a sub, or withdrawn quite early when he did start.

Antoine Semenyo is a rather surprising appearance at 7th position in the midfield rankings; but a huge haul for his brace against Leicester on the last day catapulted him several places up the chart. It's also a measure of how disappointing the output from the midfield position was in FPL overall this season: ordinarily, you'd expect perhaps 10 or 12 players to be scoring in the 170-190 kind of range, but this season only 3 did.  I'd fancied Semenyo's prospects before the season kicked off, as he'd looked very lively at the end of the previous campaign, and it did seem he might inherit Solanke's mantle as Bournemouth's main goalscorer. However, it soon became apparent that that role was more likely to fall to Dango Ouattara; and then they brought in a new specialist striker in Evanilson; and then Kluivert had a breakout season, largely stealing everyone else's thunder at the club, at least for a while. Semenyo had a few other nice hauls as well, but they were very spread out over the season, and he rarely looked like posing any really consistent threat. From the beginning of February, he went on an 8-game run that yielded only 2 assists; when I was still seeing him in a lot of people's sides in March, I thought there was something very odd going on.... He was never really the best attacking pick from Bournemouth at any stage of the season; and by then, when Bournemouth's team form was faltering badly in the closing third of the season, none of them were worth having any more.

Bruno Fernandes is, of course, one of the best players in the Premier League; but, unfortunately, he plays for one of the worst teams - which seriously calls into doubt how far you can ever rely on him to be a consistent FPL producer. He did have a few very nice little runs this year: back-to-back double-digits in Gameweeks 10 and 11, closely followed by three 9-pointers in four games across the end of November and the beginning of December; and then another little spurt of 46 points in just 4 games from mid-February. But also.... a lot of barren spells, alas. If you happened to have him during one of those hot streaks, you were lucky; but neither he nor United were producing regularly enough to make him a good bet for an extended hold in your squad (unless there just weren't any other decent midfield prospects available - which might have happened once or twice this year!).

I mentioned in my earlier post on the overall course of the season that many FPL managers had gone for Morgan Rogers in the 5th midfield spot early on (and mainly just because he was cheap, rather than because they knew anything about him), and were sufficiently impressed to hang on to him all season. I feel that was a mistake - an error of complacency or apathy. Not that I have anything against Rogers; in fact, I'm one of his biggest fans in the real world; but in the sphere of FPL, he just wasn't quite a regular enough producer to justify the long-term hold (and that was mostly down to Villa's problems with consistency, rather than any failing on his part). He only managed decent back-to-back hauls once all season. And he suffered a particularly bad lull from January onwards, missing the New Year game against Leicester, and then only managing a solitary assist in his next 8 appearances. Now, it was certainly an outstanding debut season, and (in this year when so many top midfielders have disappointed...) he wound up as FPL's 14th best player (and 8th best midfielder). However, he was edged out of a higher spot by the late lunge from Semenyo, while the likes of Murphy, Kluivert and Iwobi were a negligible distance behind; so, he wasn't even clearly the best of the ultra-low-budget midfield options this year. 

And the fact is, the end-season standings don't always count for that much. Even if you correctly guessed who the top 15 performers for the year were going to be way back last August, and could afford them all in your initial squad, they probably wouldn't have given you anywhere near a league-topping score if you'd stuck by them all year. There are very few players who are consistent enough to rely upon for the whole season. All the other positions. you have to rotate furiously - to try to keep finding the most in-form picks for the moment. That was particularly true in the cheaper midfield slots this year - because these were the players producing the most (very often not just the best points-per-pound return, but the highest absolute points), but also they were the players who were shifting in and out of peak form most rapidly. Although Morgan Rogers might have looked like the best budget midfield pick overall, there were almost always at least 2 or 3 others in the 5-to-6-million price category who were outperforming him over a short run of games: Emile Smith Rowe at the beginning of the year, and then his teammate Alex Iwobi (or, for very brief spells, perhaps even Harry Wilson or Adama Traore!), Dwight McNeil, Justin Kluivert, Georginho Rutter, Enzo Fernandez, Amad Diallo, Julio Enciso, Jacob Murphy, Harvey Barnes, Anthony Elanga, Kevin Schade. Spotting the emerging form of guys like these, and getting on them - and then getting off them again! - quickly was especially crucial this season.

Strange things were happening up-front this year. For a long time now, maybe a decade or so, the forward selection has been very limited. We've usually had just one or two really outstanding performers - Vardy, Kane, Haaland - with few if any of the other contenders getting anywhere near to their eminence. But this year, we have 2 forwards in the Top 5 overall FPL points producers,.... and 6 in the Top 11! That is unheard-of - at least as far back as I can remember. Partly, of course, it's down to the disappointing performances or injury absences of so many top midfielders this year; but also, it's very rare to have that many forwards all doing that well.

Chris Wood, for me, was the pick-of-the-crop this year. Although he slipped behind Isak in the overall points totals, he was often the more consistent points producer through the first two-thirds of the season, his finishing was uncannily efficient (beating his xG by nearly 50%?! WTF???), with him again and again claiming a goal from just two or three half-chances in a game, he was a lot cheaper than Isak, and he was a much more unexpected success story of the season. His form did falter from around mid-February, though, with two or three games missed with a knock he picked up on international duty, and only 2 more goals during that closing phase of the season. Almost no-one - apart from Salah and Mbeumo - was a season-long hold this year!

Alexander Isak confirmed his enormous potential in his second full season, managing to stay clear of major injuries this year, and looking very much like the most complete forward in the league. He started a little sluggishly, perhaps carrying an injury of some sort from the summer - managing only a couple of returns in his first six outings, and then missing a couple of games with a 'broken toe'. After that, he began to settle into a groove, and never went more than two starts without a goal for the rest of the season. I worry that the FPL Gnomes are going to make him stupidly expensive next year. It wouldn't be that unreasonable, as he is pretty much on Haaland's level; but it would spoil our fun to have two of the top attacking talents rendered unaffordable.

Matheus Cunha was the other outstanding forward of the year, posting very decent numbers even with such a weak side as Wolves (deep in the relegation mire for the first half of the year), and often manifesting an other-worldly brilliance in his approach play as well as his finishing. His temperament is the one big problem, of course; if he hadn't got himself a couple of extended suspensions (and he was really fortunate that they weren't longer, especially the one for assaulting the Ipswich steward), he probably would have finished at least 3rd in the forward rankings, and might have challenged Isak for the top spot.

But as it was, Ollie Watkins and Yoane Wissa were the best of the rest this time. Wissa was the breakout star among the forwards this year (well, assuming that we allow that we've known about Chris Wood's potential for the best part of a decade, even if he hasn't often realised it): apart from a few games missed with an injury from the end of September, and a brief goalscoring lull in January/February, he has been remarkably consistent in his output throughout the year. Watkins had a bit more of an up-and-down year: he too looked to be troubled by some sort of fitness issue to begin with, then there were rumours that he was out of favour with Emery (perhaps because he was angling for a move away from the club at the end of the season?), and pundits began to muse that he might - perhaps should - lose his start to the very sharp-looking Jhon Duran, and later to loanee Marcus Rashford. It didn't help that Villa were struggling with the unfamiliar burden of Champions League football, and often weary and woefully inconsistent in the League, especially in the first half of the season. But class will out, and Ollie ended up having another pretty solid season; he looks to be forming a particularly productive rapport with Morgan Rogers, and it's notable that although his goal tally wasn't that great this year, he supported it with an impressive 8 assists.

Erling Haaland, of course, presented the great conundrum for us at the start of the season, when FPL priced him at an outrageous 15.0 million pounds. At that cost, the only sensible decision, really, was to try to go without him in your initial squad. But only about half of the FPL community chose that path, while the other half paupered the rest of their squad to keep Haaland; and they were absurdly well-rewarded for their faith in him when he banged in a remarkable 10 goals in the opening 5 games, for an unprecedented 63-point haul. But City's season began to unravel immediately after that, and he only managed 3 goals and an assist over the next 13 games. Although they began to rally somewhat around the end of the year, their form still looked shakey. Haaland, though, was nearly back to his best and scoring consistently: but was 8 goals and 2 assists in 11 games from Gameweeks 19 to 29 enough to justify that 15-million price-tag (remarkably, the sell-off on him during City's long slump was so slow-and-steady that he never dropped lower than 14.7 million!)? Probably not, when there were so many other strikers in great form, at barely half the price. Just when people were starting to get tempted by the Haaland option again around the start of March, he picked up an ankle injury and was out for two months. Yet he still ended the season on 181 points, the 5th best forward in FPL, and 10th best player. For a forward who only cost 8 or 10 million, that would have been just dandy; but for one who cost 15 million???  His price is bound to come down again next year, after this relatively 'disappointing' season; but I fear it won't drop enough to significantly change the dynamics of the game - he'll still be unaffordable!

There were a number of other forwards who looked like good acquisitions for a limited spell: Danny Welbeck and Raul Jimenez looked very good at the start of the season, Joao Pedro often looked the most enticing super-budget option (although, like Cunha, he has temperament issues which seriously undermine his FPL value), and Evanilson and Strand Larsen could have had much more impact if they hadn't suffered spells of injury. Omar Marmoush had an eye-catching debut half-season. Nicolas Jackson started the year very impressively, but then started to lose his way, as did Chelsea; and then he got sidelined for a month or so with an injury, and couldn't rediscover his scoring touch on his return,... and then got himself suspended for a particularly ugly foul near the end of the season. (With the news that Chelsea are now in the process of signing Liam Delap from Ipswich, I wonder if Jackson might have ended his career at the club with that rash assault on Sven Botman.)  Delap, Beto, and Ndiaye all looked intermittently promising prospects as well. But the much fancied Mateta, Solanke, and Havertz all disappointed (though it might be said that a lot of that was down to injuries sustained, and shakey team form, rather than bad performances from these players when they were fit).

I did own all of these most outstanding players at some point; most of them, in fact, were in my initial squad. And yet I still had a thoroughly appalling season! 'Tis a funny old game, indeed....  Having most of the right players, most of the time - isn't enough. You've got to have all of the right players, at all the right times - to do really well in this game. And get all your captaincy picks right as well....