Luck-o-Meter (36)

 

The rate of injuries has slowed somewhat in recent weeks, but a greater incidence of fatigue, nerves, perhaps occasional complacency or dipping in motivation, and a preoccupation, for some, with the final rounds of the European competitions, has meant that already over the past few gameweeks we've seen more and more bizarre swings in form and unexpected results. The tail-end of the season becomes even more of a lottery than usual. 

And Manchester United, Spurs, Chelsea, and Arsenal are likely to be a bit tired - mentally as much as physically - by their European exertions this midweek. Eccentric coaching decisions and incompetent refereeing may add even more to these uncertainties.... Will they this week? Let's see.

And, oh dear, we are in the dog days of the season, aren't we? Mental and physical fatigue is taking its toll, and we're likely to see more and more woefully dull games. Saturday brought a whole clutch of embarrassing snoozefests.

Everton started poorly at Fulham, and were lucky that the home side failed to capitalise on the period of dominance they enjoyed following Raul's early breakthrough. A deflected Mykolenko shot gave Everton a toe-hold in the game on the stroke of half-time, and they improved strongly through the second half. The main talking point, though, in a very mid-table kind of game, was Darren England's near-unique sticking by his original call after a visit to the VAR monitor; it is very gratifying to see a ref not being prejudiced into reversing his initial decision by a VAR intervention (and here, it felt like the right call: Traore fired the ball at Mykolenko from very close range, and he was clearly trying to pull his arm out of the way of the ball, not reaching towards it).

Usually prolific Brentford only managed a solitary goal against dogged Ipswich? More FPL woe! And it fell to their overlooked third striker, Kevin Schade, rather than the more fancied Wissa and Mbeumo? Double woe!! And Brentford really should have got a penalty on a previous attempt to take that corner, when Greaves wrestled Van den Berg to the ground, but VAR didn't see enough to intervene. So, the goal should by rights have been penalty-taker Mbeumo's.... Thrice and four times woe!!! They really should have had two more penalties, either side of half-time, when Schade was clearly held when receiving Mbeumo's incisive pass, and then when Collins was rugby-tackled to the ground at a corner - VAR adopting a far too lenient attitude to 'holding' in the box, which led to increasingly extravagant wrestling from both sides at set pieces. Ipswich very nearly nicked a result, with three good chances falling to them in a flurry of late pressure.

Southampton produced a tediously unadventurous but impressively dogged display to frustrate an uninspired Manchester City. It would be tempting to say that Haaland was ring-rusty after nearly two months out of the game, but in fact he looked pretty sharp (winning a lot of high balls beyond the far post and heading them back into the six-yard box... where no-one was ever following up); it was more a case of the rest of the team having apparently forgotten how to play with him. Pep's selections were a bit of a head-scratcher as well; City looked far more dangerous once they brought on the likes of Doku, O'Reilly, Savinho, and Marmoush (who crashed a thumping shot on to the crossbar within minutes of coming on at the very end of the game), and you suspect they could have broken Southampton down if they'd been on from the start. The home side were maybe a little fortunate to get away with a couple of shoves in the penalty area, but in both cases the City players didn't help their appeal by going down so heavily under fairly trivial contact. The last quarter of an hour (half of that, amazingly, added on) actually became quite tense and exciting, as every football fan in the world other than City supporters was praying for the minnows to hang on to their hard-earned draw. (And it's hard not to indulge in a little schadenfreude at all the naive FPL managers who brought in Haaland and/or DeBruyne this week - often at the expense of far more reliable producers like Salah and Isak! It is dangerous to chase week-by-week points from a 'soft fixture'!)

Wolves were yet another team who were strangely flat this Saturday. On recent form, you would have fancied them to spank Brighton quite comfortably - but they rarely got in the game (a solitary low shot from the edge of the box from Cunha being well turned away by Verbruggen early in the second half). A particularly rough day for fans of the recently popular Matheus Cunha (over 15% ownership in FPL), who conceded a penalty (WHY was he playing in the back line???), got booked for it (and maybe was fortunate not to get a red card: if it was a deliberate foul [though I think you could take the view that it was just a clumsy late swish at the ball rather than an attempted trip; and he barely made contact with his toe on the side of the attacker's shin], it was surely also a 'denial of a goal-scoring opportunity'?), and was then subbed off just shy of the hour - for a nul-pointer. Cruel, cruel game!

Bournemouth were perhaps a little unlucky not to get at least a point out of their game, but their finishing just wasn't good enough: Semenyo drilled a shot just wide of the post, and right at the death, substitute Jebbison somehow managed to head over the bar from a yard or so out. Early in the game, Asensio had hit a firm shot against the foot of the post. That was about it - Watkins's solitary goal came 'out of nothing'; there was no sustained pressure from either side. Tyrone Mings was lucky to escape a red card for breaking Alex Scott's jaw; the collision did look 'accidental', but when you catch a guy in the face with your elbow, at speed, you can expect to be penalised most of the time.

Chelsea, too, were a shadow of the side that embarrassed Liverpool last week - perhaps somewhat flummoxed by Howe's crafty decision to line up with a back-three. Newcastle, however, were lacking a cutting-edge themselves, and failed to capitalise on Tonali's early breakthrough goal - even after Chelsea had been reduced to 10 men. Indeed, Chelsea grew into the game through the second half, and were piling on some worrying pressure during the last 20 minutes - until Bruno G pinged in a dipper from just outside the box with a few minutes left. There can't be any dispute about Jackson's sending-off: he clearly had a look at where Botman was, and then charged into him, leading with his elbow. It was such an ugly foul, so obviously committed with intent, that I wouldn't be at all surprised if the FA add another game or two to his mandatory three-match suspension, for exceptionally dangerous play. The only surprise here was that referee John Brooks initially gave the foul only a yellow card; and that it then took such an inordinately long time for VAR to recommend a second look,.... and then that the second look also seemed to take him forever. It was such an obvious and clearcut red card - what on earth was the problem?? (Some of the offside checks have been taking well over a minute lately too - even when there's no close call to be determined. Something amiss with the technology, it would seem.) Later on, VAR declined to intervene when James shoved Gordon to the ground in the box; Gordon was perhaps suffering for having got himself a reputation as someone who goes looking for fouls in the box a bit too obviously, but here James clearly shoulder-charged him in the back - and it was definitely at least worth a second look.

A lot of surprises at the City Ground: a rare-ish goal - a very, very rare headed goal! - from Morgan Gibbs-White (the blocking defender standing nearly 15 yards back from Elanga's touchline free-kick was a big help with that - but that appeared to be his decision, rather than a referee's instruction); Chris Wood, somewhat out of form over the past couple of months, suddenly coming up with a superb diving header; a surprisingly tough performance from relegated Leicester, but still no 200th goal for Jamie Vardy; and then a late equaliser from Buonanotte, to devastate Forest's Champions League hopes.

West Ham finally seemed to be clicking under Graham Potter at Old Trafford, playing with passion and cohesion to end a long winless drought. But it was only against United, who seem to be getting progressively more dire with each passing week. Ruben Amorim's relentless negativity in post-match interviews is now extending to admitting that United don't deserve to be in next season's Champions League if they play like this - which, while obviously true, isn't the sort of thing that the fans like to hear, or that serves any useful purpose. His gloom now even extends to his own prospects in the job, acknowledging that maybe someone should replace him if he can't quickly re-instil a winning mentality in this shambolic team - not clear if he's asking to be sacked, or acknowledging that he's under the threat of it, but again.... not the sort of thing it's encouraging for players or fans to hear at this point.

Rotations ahead of looming Cup Finals for Spurs and Palace were perhaps not as bad as might have been feared: Glasner gave recently-back-from-injury Adam Wharton the day off, but otherwise went with his best eleven, including Eze. Postecoglou put in back-up keeper Kinsky (though that might possibly be a permanent, form-related change?), though he yanked Betancur at half-time, and Porro just minutes shy of the hour - sore vexation for any FPL managers foolhardy enough to still hold any Spurs players! Sarr's tap-in of a great Munoz square-ball across the six-yard box to give Palace an apparent early lead was laboriously ruled out by VAR for a highly questionable offside: ultimately the computer graphic picture showed Mateta ostensibly offside at the start of the move, but.... only by a matter of inches/centimetres, which - I think - is always too close for any technology to convincingly adjudicate (and it was his upper arm only, an area which gets a very subjective and inconsistent interpretation in handball decisions!), and he was standing in his own half at the time, so his upper-arm being in the opponent's half could only be a presumed 'offside' if all the opposing outfield players were in the Palace half.... which I'm not at all convinced of, because by the time he actually received the ball, barely a second later, there were at least three Spurs defenders well back in their own half, all ahead of Mateta. Moments later, the constantly dangerous (because Spurs were consistently omitting to mark him at all) Munoz blasted a shot off the top of the crossbar - bitter frustration for the rather less foolhardy FPL enthusiasts who still have these very popular Palace assets from their recent double gameweeks. At least Ebere Eze came up with two slick finishes to make the result safe - and claim the FPL 'Player of the Week' crown. But Palace really had been rather profligate with their chances: Spurs were so ragged and disorganised here that the visitors might easily have won 5-0 or 6-0. I can't see Big Ange keeping his job now, even if he does sneak into next season's Champions League.

Liverpool v Arsenal wasn't quite the great game we might have hoped for, but there was at least enough excitement in it to brighten up what had been a thoroughly dull weekend of football. Salah blanked (although he had a lively game.... and really ought to get some credit for the sublime 'pre-assist' for the second goal!). The home side went 2-0 up in the first 20 minutes, but then allowed a much improved Arsenal back into the game in the second half - even the great Van Dijk went to sleep and allowed Martinelli to ghost in behind him for an unopposed glancing header. Lots more strangeness in the game: Saka beating an offside trap early on, but then missing a sitter; Alexander-Arnold narrowly playing Merino on for the equaliser; Merino getting himself sent off for two silly fouls; Robertson blazing a great chance for a late winner wide, then having an apparent winner ruled out shortly afterwards (either for a very, very marginal offside, or for a soft foul by Konate - not clear which, and either seemed a bit unjust); in between which decisive moments, Odegaard also had a chance on a counter-attack, but scuffed his effort narrowly wide of the post.

Oh my god - if there was a Razzie for 'The Worst EPL Gameweek of All-Time', this one would surely at least have to be on the shortlist. Gary Lineker joked on the Beeb that it had been the most boring Saturday he could remember in 26 years of presenting 'Match of the Day'; and Sunday wasn't really much better, was it? It's difficult to point to any team that produced a really good performance (Southampton's spoiling display against City perhaps; that was the emotional highlight of a drab weekend, anyway), and just about half of them were really, really poor. For the third Gameweek running, the 'global average' score was stuck down in the 40s, and very, very few people were managing any better than 60 points. Almost all of the most fancied players (including leading 'sheep picks' for the week, DeBruyne and Haaland) came up blank. The 'Team of the Week' includes FOUR defenders, has Ramsdale in goal, and features such low-owned surprises as Gibbs-White, Soucek, Tonali, Schade, and Raul.

There were a couple of penalties and red cards missed, and a few very tight offsides (the Mateta/Munoz/Sarr one to me looked certainly unjust and almost certainly wrong); but the officiating problems this week were mainly about taking too long to reach the right decision rather than making a lot of wrong ones; it was actually one of the better weeks we've had from the refs and VAR.

Only looking just about a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter' this time, and mainly for the flurry of disappointing player and team performances.

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  Most people will have played the dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip by now; but if you haven't.... this is the last week that you could refuse to do so!  I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season when it was introduced in GW23. [I worry that, if people don't protest vociferously about it, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you didn't feel able to join me in such an emphatic gesture, I hope you at least thought about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip (and still might refuse, if you've kept it till the last few gameweeks of the season).

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW36

Goodness me - we seem to have yet again been spared many new injuries this week...  It really isn't often we get so fortunate - especially at this tail-end of the football year.

Nevertheless, 'form' always becomes more and more unpredictable in the closing weeks of the season...  And with Manchester United and Spurs now facing each other in the Europa League Final (which, this season, is unhappily scheduled between EPL Gameweeks 37 and 38) - and not having anything to play for in the League any more (except avoiding the ignominy of finishing below the other...) - I imagine they're going to be concentrating their focus on that, and not putting forth much effort in their remaining League games. Arsenal, however, after being narrowly bested by Paris St Germain in the Champions League Semi-Final on Thursday night, can now give all their attention to trying to finish as strongly as possible in the League; something that might perhaps have been in doubt, if they'd had a Final to prepare for over the next few weeks. Also, of course, Palace are playing City in the FA Cup Final next Saturday, so are quite likely to be resting a few key players (but which ones, and how much???) this weekend.

But at least we've been spared having any more blank and double gameweeks to have to worry about, as the fixtures missed next weekend for the Cup Final have simply been moved back a few days into the following week, and remain part of Gameweek 37,

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups, aiming to confine myself to just the injuries to players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who were already ruled out for the last gameweek! [I currently find the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information - go check that out for more comprehensive coverage.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 36?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

The big news of the week seems to be that the recently excellent (though barely owned!) Youri Tielemans has picked up a muscle injury that seems likely to keep him out for the rest of the season.

Poor Solly March of Brighton missed last week's game because of a new knee problem, and Bournemouth's Dango Ouattara has a groin strain - though apparently not too serious (and nobody has him any more, anyway).

Christopher Nkunku missed last week's win over Liverpool - and both the Europa Conference semi-finals - because of an unspecified knock; originally not thought serious, but now it seems doubtful that he'll be available again before the end of the season.

Adam Wharton suffered a twisted ankle against Forest last week, but Glasner is hopeful he'll be OK for this weekend. (One of those where nobody has him, but Eze's and Mateta's prospects look much better with him playing behind them.)

Timothy Castagne has had to have surgery on a recurring ankle problem this week, so will be out until next season. (At least Fulham have Kenny Tete available again now, who might be a better choice anyway.)

Matthijs de Ligt had to come off with a muscle problem against Brentford last week; not thought to be too serious, but has been ruled out of this weekend.

Kieran Trippier and Fabian Schar suffered muscle soreness in last week's game; might have been just cramp or fatigue rather than a strain, but Eddie Howe was evasive  about whether they'd be OK for this week.

Murillo had to come off against Palace with an apparent hamstring strain, but Nuno claims to be hopeful that he'll be back this week; this could have a big impact on Forest's prospects over the run-in.

And at Spurs it has been announced that injuries picked up 10 days ago by Lucas Bergvall (ankle) and James Maddison (knee) are going to keep them out for the season (although I wonder if Maddison isn't just pissed off with the way he's been treated by Postecoglou and put in for a transfer).

At Wolves, though, Jørgen Strand Larsen, who was a last-minute precautionary withdrawal a week ago because of a groin strain, looks as though he might be back in the side this week - although 80,000 of his owners have given up on him already since last Friday! (And, amazingly, despite having clocked 6 goals and 42 points in the previous 6 games, his ownership was barely above 4% anyway.... What??)

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Joao Pedro and Leif Davis are serving the last instalment of their three-match bans this week. But - remarkably - there are no new suspensions to worry about. 

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

West Ham under Potter have joined Spurs in the 'embarrassment to watch' category - though at least Jarrod Bowen continues to provide occasional bright spots for them.

Oh, and Arne Slot has indicated that he wants to give Conor Bradley more minutes, and will probably be starting him ahead of Trent Alexander-Arnold this week. That shouldn't be any great surprise to anyone. (However, I suspect Trent is still likely to be allowed an emotional Anfield farewell in the game against Palace on the final Saturday.)

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, this may be a tad premature, but... I think Mason Mount has looked absolutely outstanding since his return: he really has the air of a player hungry to make his mark again after two seasons on the sidelines. Amad Diallo looked lively on his (earlier than expected!) return too. It's a pity they're stuck in an absolutely woeful Manchester United side....

And, of course, Kevin DeBruyne and Cole Palmer are starting to attract a lot of interest again - though that's probably sentiment getting the better of people. Chelsea have a tricky run-in, and KDB can't be relied on to be capable of full minutes, or big performances, in all three of the remaining games.

Most people must surely have used the 'Assistant Manager' chip by now. (It was never actually specified in the 'rules' for this chip if it would cease to be available in GW37 if you hadn't activated it yet...) Anyone who hasn't must surely have forgotten about it. (Or wasn't aware of it. Or couldn't understand it. Or thought it was too much hassle to work around the other chips...) With the increasing unpredictability of results in the closing weeks of the season, it really shouldn't be a good time to play a chip based on team results anyway; and most of the top teams actually have quite tough run-ins, so there aren't many secure wins in prospect even for the biggest names, and certainly no huge margins of victory or easy clean sheets likely; moreover, most of the stronger teams at the lower end of the table have recovered so well in the past month or two that they no longer have many table-bonus prospects (Wolves and Spurs might have been expected to have one this week, but... no). Brentford, Manchester City, and maybe Wolves look the likeliest prospects for a big win - though maybe not a clean sheet...? - this week. If you're chasing a table-bonus, Leicester seem the only slim prospect of that; Midlands derbies do often produce an upset, and Forest have been faltering in the last few games - and Vardy looks hungry to rack up his 200th goal for his club; I doubt Leicester can win it, but maybe they can snatch a draw.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

AND PLEASE DON'T FORGET The Boycott; though I'm willing to comment on its possible use, I actually loathe the pointless innovation of the 'Assistant Manager' chip - and I have been urging people to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use the chip, in protest. 

But if you couldn't bring yourself to do either of those things, please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip 

Sheep Picks (13)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

I wasn't expecting to have to nominate anyone in Gameweek 36, but - strangely, amazingly - there are quite a few players gaining a fair old flood of new owners this week; and the most curious of these selections is surely Josko Gvardiol. As of Friday morning, he's already reached 200,000 transfers-in for the week, with more than 24 hours to go before the Gameweek deadline; that puts him neck-and-neck with Bryan Mbeumo, not far behind Yoane Wissa, and miles ahead of Chris Wood and Matheus Cunha (though trailing in the dust of his illustrious teammate, Kevin DeBruyne) - all of whom (including KDB) I find far more justifiable picks.

Now, yes, Pep does seem to have ironed out many of Manchester City's problems, has got them looking reasonably dangerous again (though still far from impregnable, and a pale shadow of what they were last season). And the big Croatian has been playing very well of late: in fact, thanks to the recently faltering form of formerly strong defensive sides like Forest, Bournemouth, and Palace, he's just managed to edge into the Top Three of the FPL defender rankings (his best placing of the season, I think; he's usually only ever been hovering around the Top Five briefly, when he's just scored a goal - and has quite often dropped well out of the Top Ten...). And yes, they are facing Southampton this weekend - which could be an invitation to a spectacular goalfest.

However, City's final two fixtures - Bournemouth and Fulham - aren't at all straightforward: a win in those games can't be guaranteed, and I wouldn't be betting on City keeping a clean sheet in either of them. (And, since Gvardiol is currently playing in the centre of defence, he's not terribly likely to pick up points for anything else...)  Even Southampton shouldn't be taken for granted: they are the only one of the promoted sides to really show some steel - and some threat - over the past month or so, with their big striker, Paul Onuachu, in particular, looking quite dangerous. City will surely win that one, and win it quite comfortably; but the clean sheet might elude them.

Frankly, I think I'd still rather have almost any of the other top fifteen or so FPL defenders of the moment than Gvardiol. In addition to the consistently dependable-in-defence Forest and Liverpool, Wolves are in very impressive form and have an invitingly soft run-in, while Everton, West Ham, and Brentford might also offer some tempting defensive options because of their fixtures.

But the key problem with acquiring Gvardiol now is not whether he's any good (he is; but he's not clearly the best prospect in his position, and he's too damned expensive!), or whether City's form has convincingly turned around (I still have a few doubts on that), or how good their remaining fixture-run is (I'd call it just so-so) - but.... WHY DON'T YOU HAVE HIM ALREADY??  He's just kept 4 clean sheets in the last 6 games! He's just had a Double Gameweek!! Surely everyone who fancied him (and/or City) for the closing phase of the season should have already brought him in at least a few weeks ago???

Maybe people moved him out for his Blank in GW34, and are now moving him back?? It's a terrible waste of transfers to do short-term swapsies like that, particularly for such an expensive player (and one who's gone up in price so much, meaning that you might lose quite a bit of money on him via the dreaded 'transfer tax'). But some people don't know what they're doing....

And maybe some are only just using their Wildcard this week, and thinking they can bring in a bunch of players primarily for this week's fixtures. Though with a Wildcard rebuild, you really have to consider the whole upcoming fixture-run, not just the juicy opponent this week. And in any case, the Wildcard should really have been dropped before now (ideally, two weeks ago...). Some people don't know what they're doing.

But if you haven't got the luxury of a Wildcard rebuild to deploy this late in the season,... and you haven't got a bunch of saved 'Free Transfers' burning a hole in your pocket,.... if, like most people, you've just got your one cost-free transfer of the week to use,.... at this stage of the season, when fatigue and injuries can take such a toll and last-minute dropouts threaten every week, you really need to just roll your transfers for possible emergency fire-fighting (you might find yourself without 2 or 3 starters next week!).

'Elective transfers' are an extravagance you can rarely afford to indulge; and in the closing weeks of the season, they are positively reckless. And burning a transfer on a defender,.... just because they have one 'good' fixture....?  That is absolutely, certifiably NUTS!

A little bit of Zen (41)

 

“To live only for some future goal is shallow. It's the sides of the mountain that sustain life, not the top.”

Robert M. Pirsig 

The OTHER kind of 'Form'

A couple of days ago, I tried to produce a helpful analysis of what should properly be understood by the often dangerously nebulous term 'form', in which I highlighted the importance of relating individual form to team form, and also suggested that it is useful to view 'form' in different categories - across three different timeframes.

It now occurs to me that there is another, completely separate - rather weird - type of 'form' which is often discussed as being potentially relevant to FPL: a player's record against a specific club.

I am very sceptical as to whether there's any value in this:

1)  The supposed correlations that many FPL fans crow about are rarely statistically significant. (Perhaps a player has had 3 decent hauls in his last 5 outings against a particular club... But he's a fairly prolific player who usually manages at least 2 from 5 against almost everyone, so....??  If he blanks in this next one, it may suddenly look like he has a worse-than-average record against this club rather than a better one!)

2)  As I commented in the earlier post on the shortcomings of FPL's 'Form' statistic, these numbers don't take any account of the particular circumstances that led to hauls (or blanks) over a series of games. Often, the figures cited don't even distinguish between home and away games. They certainly don't deign to remind you if key players were missing from either side in certain fixtures, or only recently back from injury, or if a big - possibly wrong - refereeing call distorted the game outcome.

3)  'Historical trends' are unconvincing, because so much changes over time. Even the player you're focusing on will have developed his skills in certain areas, perhaps radically changed his style of play in some aspects; but also he'll have aged and suffered injuries, very possibly he's become at least a little less incisive than he was four or five years ago. There may also have been huge turnover among his teammates, and/or one or more changes of manager at his club - and hence a major shift in the team's style of play.  And of course, that also goes for the opponents. Beyond the last 2 or 3 seasons, you can't expect these player-against-club records to be revealing of anything very much at all.

However, I do allow a small amount of credence to the potential significance in such a 'successful trend'. While I think it's mostly a dangerous superstition, there are a few instances in which there might be something to it.

Primary goalscorers, we know, are very susceptible to 'vibes': if they can discern a possible 'trend' for scoring more often against a particular club, that may inspire better performances from them against that club and become a self-fulfilling prophecy. And that can be particularly the case with fixtures that are especially emotionally-charged: derby games, or matches against your strongest traditional rivals/enemies.  As we see in the table above, Mo Salah does 'like' to score against Manchester United! (However, even with that fairly strong trend, I would counter that a large part of Salah's record here can be attributed simply to the fact that United have been mostly pretty awful for the last several years. If they were suddenly to turn things around and start looking a strong defensive side again, a formidable opponent, his previous record against them would be much less persuasive.)

Sometimes, though, these emotional lifts to performance may come from circumstances external to the history of the fixture between the two clubs. The phenomenon of players - and not just goalscorers, but players in every position - rousing themselves to a match-winning performance against a former club (especially if it's a club they've only recently parted from, and on less than amicable terms) is very pronounced; and I tend to put more weight on that in considering FPL selections than on whether Player X often has a good game in the derby.  And few visiting teams come away with anything from Anfield on the weekend that the Hillsborough disaster is commemorated: the emotion of the crowd on that day is utterly overwhelming, and the home players too usually seem fired up to honour the victims with a particularly powerful performance.

So, yes, 'history' does count for something, sometimes; but not for nearly as much as the majority of FPL pundits try to make out - with their comparisons of every player's average haul against every opponent since the dawn of time.....  Charts like that, you can usually ignore.

The ONE GREAT TRUTH

The point of the game is to pick who you think are the best players. And then see how well you did.

Sometimes it goes well; sometimes it goes badly.

Those outcomes are mostly the result of luck - so, you shouldn't fret over poor outcomes (or feel smug over good ones!), But the outcomes can also give you some hints as to how accurate your judgement of the players was. If you can recognise where your judgements were mistaken, and why that happened - you can get better. That is the purpose of the game.

It has NOTHING to do with 'rank'. People who obsess over their 'Overall Rank' position have fallen victim to a sad delusion. How many points you get has little to do with how good you are; how many other people get more points than you has nothing to do with how good you are.

You should focus only on trying to choose the best players, self-analysing your mistakes and weaknesses, seeking a path to become better in your selections. That is all.

As Dogen Zenji said, "The practice is the goal."

What is 'Form'?

 

Well, it's not this.

FPL defines 'form' - as in the screenshot of their Stats page above - as the 'average FPL points return over the last 5 gameweeks'. While this is a moderately useful number to keep in mind (though, if you watch football regularly, you ought to be fairly continuously aware of this, without needing to check up on the FPL figures very much...), it's obviously a very flawed metric - and it's not really how any of us conceive of 'form' in football.

For one thing, FPL returns can be pretty random: they're not always an accurate reflection of how well a player has played. For another, this ranking doesn't take account of how many gameweeks in this run the player might have missed, or only played short minutes in (at least, I don't think it does; it's not explained anywhere, and I've never been bothered to check more deeply; but it appears to aggregate the same last five gameweeks for everyone, not the last five that each player actually played in... or started in). [CORRECTION: FPL is now specifying that the timeframe is 'all League games played in the last 30 days'; but I think that might be new.]  Moreover, it doesn't consider 'form' in other recent games - European and domestic cup competitions. 

Even more importantly, it doesn't capture any of the small details of each game that might give more meaningful context to a performance: it is, of course, mainly reflective of goals and assists - but they often come very much against the run of play, sometimes as complete flukes,... or from unjustly awarded penalties,... or when the opposing side has been reduced to 10 men. 

And 5 gameweeks is an arbitrary cut-off anyway - why not 4, or 6? I'd suggest that 5 gameweeks is in fact an awkward compromise, too long to properly reflect very recent shifts in form, but too short to do justice to more consistent, longer-term form. So, I don't look at the FPL 'Form' table very often....

First, we need to bear in mind the important relationship between team form and individual form. In FPL, we're mostly interested in individual form - but we have to assess that in the broader context of the overall form of the team a player represents. I commented last week that I think Cole Palmer has been continuing to play very well - but his FPL returns have dried up over the last 4 or 5 months because Chelsea's form has collapsed. Likewise, Kerkez, Robinson, and Gvardiol were popular defensive picks earlier in the season, but their teams' form got so flakey in recent months that their attacking returns dwindled, and clean-sheets almost disappeared - making them no longer top options in that position.

If a player is playing well, and is part of a team that is playing well, and that is playing in a style that supports and enables that player to perform at his best,... and this good play is the kind of play that is likely to produce FPL returns fairly often,... and there are good reasons to suppose that this good play is not just an ephemeral one-off but has good chances of being a continuing trend for some time,..... THAT is 'form'.

A player in this sort of form won't always produce FPL returns for you (because no-one, not even Mo Salah, produces FPL points every week, even if they play well!); but he'll give you a much better chance of fairly regular returns - which is what you're looking for in this game.

Then, I think it's useful to identify THREE DIFFERENT CATEGORIES of 'Form':

1)  Established, medium- to long-term form.  If a player (or a team) has been playing fairly consistently well over a period of several gameweeks, that's certainly something you should be taking notice of. And it can be a persuasive sign that the good form has solid foundations and is likely to endure for some time further (although, of course, form can turn at any moment....).

2)  Emerging form.  Form can shift in a single game, even sometimes in a single moment: occasionally you can see that a coolly taken goal, or a heroic last-ditch block, or a flying save has completely re-energised a player who'd been having a bad spell and lost confidence in themselves. But that's very rare; and it's a risky thing to bet on. In general, I feel it takes 2 to 3 games of good all-around performance to be persuasive that someone's form has turned for the better. (Or, equally, 2 or 3 disappointing games - not just 1!! - to convince that someone's form is badly faltering.)  

I've always rather liked the proverb: 'Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.'  (Possibly invented by Ian Fleming, who uses the phrase and the idea as a structural device in the plot of Goldfinger.)  One good game might be a freak; two on the bounce is very encouraging, but it still might mean nothing; three.... is form. 

3)  Turning form.  Ah, but while it might usually take at least 3 games to firmly establish a trend in form, you probably do want to trust your instincts and take an early gamble occasionally on the first signs of a change in fortune for a player. Here, a full appreciation of the overall context for a player's performance is especially crucial. If you can see that a player is mad keen to make a mark after returning from an injury absence or a spell out of favour with the manager; if you can see that a tweak in the tactics or the return of a key supporting teammate is likely to particularly suit your player's style; if you've spotted an approaching 'turn' in the fixtures towards some softer opponents; if you can discern strong underlying reasons why a player just played so well, and why his performances might now continue to improve,..... why, then you might consider diving in for him after just one good game, or certainly after two. (I'd be warier of dumping out players too hastily for a 'poor' performance, though. It's usually much harder to determine why a player has 'lost form', or when it might return.)

[It is notable that the recommendations of FPL's lamebrained pundit 'The Scout' usually only call attention to players who've been producing good returns for a few weeks, if not slightly longer: players whose form is certainly more 'emerged' than just 'emerging', if not at least on the cusp of being now well-established - players you should have noticed for yourself already. 'The Scout' is almost always just a little bit late to the party in spotting good acquisitions.]

But above all, you need to watch full games, with close attention - to get an overall sense of how a player, and the team around him, is performing in every aspect. People who say a player is 'in form' just because he scored a goal or two recently (or has kept a clean sheet or two, if it's a keeper or defender), or has a good-looking number in that FPL chart at the top of the post here,.... they don't know what they're talking about; THAT isn't form.

Luck-o-Meter (35)

The rate of injuries has slowed somewhat in recent weeks (everyone's injured already??), but a greater incidence of fatigue, nerves, perhaps occasional complacency or dipping in motivation, and a preoccupation, for some, with the final rounds of the European competitions, mean that already over the past few gameweeks we've seen more and more bizarre swings in form and unexpected results. The tail-end of the season becomes even more of a lottery than usual. Eccentric coaching decisions and incompetent refereeing may add even more to these uncertainties.... Will they this week? Let's see.

The tight turnaround this week (a Friday evening kick-off for City v Wolves no doubt catching many FPL managers by surprise - especially as having the last match of Gameweek 34, Forest v Brentford, put back to Thursday evening meant that there was a gap of less than 24 hours between the two gameweeks) may have provided the first cruel blows of Fortune for some.....

And indeed, the new gameweek got off to a strange and exasperating start, with in-form visitors Wolves being largely dominant at the Etihad, yet somehow not managing to make any of their chances pay (the highly fancied FPL picks Cunha and Ait-Nouri both hit the post!). This led to the rare (almost unique - I can't recall seeing it before!) phenomenon of the Wolves players getting far higher average ratings on the BBC match report than the City ones, despite having lost the match; in fact, 6 Wolves players were rated higher than any City players (except match-winner, Kevin DeBruyne)! And not only did City nick a winner somewhat against the run of play, and improbably cling on to a clean sheet - but Josko Gvardiol, who really did nothing all game, apart from one important block from an Ait-Nouri effort in the second half, somehow hoovered up the maximum bonus points. Ain't no justice!  More FPL woe in that Cunha and Marmoush, two of the highest-owned forwards after Isak, both unexpectedly drew a blank here; and that the recently excellent Strand Larsen was a very late withdrawal, with a groin muscle problem that might keep him out for a few weeks. Also, Rayan Ait-Nouri was very lucky to escape a red card for raking his studs down Bernardo Silva's shin late in the game; he probably benefitted from the overturning of Evanilson's red card a couple of days ago on the basis that his foul, though horrendous, had been 'accidental' - this looked the same kind of thing: a very nasty impact, but clumsy rather than malevolent. Though I'm not sure that presumed intention should be any part of assessing the severity of incidents like this...

Marshall Munetsi's penalty shout was a feeble claim: it looked as though he'd merely slipped over in the six-yard box as Gvardiol very lightly laid a hand on his upper arm for a moment. Nevertheless, Gvardiol was taking a big chance in trying to touch an attacking player who was slipping in behind him, and we do still sometimes see such tenuous 'infractions' penalised - it was one of those where, if the referee had initially seen it as a foul, VAR might have been hesitant to query that. And if a penalty had been given there, Gvardiol would have, in an instant, lost his clean-sheet bonus.... and all or most of his extra bonus points. On such slender margins in officiating do tens of FPL points - and the outcomes of games - often swing....

Villa prevailed narrowly over Fulham at home, although both teams looked pretty mediocre and lacked any cutting edge. Robinson was a little lucky to avoid conceding a penalty early on for needlessly barging Watkins in the back; it wasn't a very heavy contact, but it was illegal. Ruling out Sessegnon's goal for a faint touch on the hand as the ball came down for his half-volley looked fair enough. Unai Emery alienated a lot of FPL fans by making a pair of substitutions just about on the stroke of the hour - leading to the bizarre and vexing inconsistency that John McGinn received full appearance points while poor Marco Asensio got only a solitary point, despite their departure from the pitch being mere seconds apart!

Arsenal faltered again, failing to capitalise on a comfortable dominance in the first half, and then being caught out by - oh, the irony! - a couple of Bournemouth set-pieces in the second half. Semenyo took his long throw-in for Huijsen's equaliser from the wrong place - a curious new example of poor refereeing potentially having swung the course of the game. There was just a slight whiff of controversy about Bournemouth's winner, since it was impossible to see on the VAR pictures (whose resolution seems to be getting worse by the week?!) what part of Evanilson's body the ball had been deflected over the line by.

Everton are still misfiring too; likewise should have made more of their first-half chances. Long-range pingers from McNeil and Enciso were really the only bright spots in a fairly dull game. Everton fans are a bit disgruntled by the fact that Hirst's equaliser came after Patterson had been laid out at the other end of the field with an apparent facial injury.

Leicester won comfortably against Southampton, and really should have won by more: El Khannouss blazed a couple of excellent chances wide, and Vardy had a good penalty shout waved away.

Brentford were up to their old tricks again, dominating the game and scoring for fun,... but failing to shut out even a very poor opponent. They really need a better keeper: there was nothing to be done about Garnacho's 20-yard screamer, but the other two they conceded here were very much Flekken's fault (and I don't like the way he started whingeing at his defenders after letting Diallo's third through his legs....). One wonders if something's broken with the new Semi-Automated Offside decision technology, as we haven't often been seeing the justificatory computer graphic renderings which are supposed to determine the calls now; in this game we had a very long delay to verify Wissa's goal... in which no-one had been anywhere near to offside - bizarre! With United so utterly woeiful, it's becoming harder and harder to see how Amorim can keep his job this summer. But at least it was nice to see returns to the field after long injury abences from Mount, Diallo, Shaw, Henry, and Thiago in this game.

It was nice to see VAR actually doing its job well at Brighton, twice correctly overruling the award of a penalty to Newcastle, and then eventually stepping in to direct the referee to take a second look at an obvious handball in the wall defending a free-kick from 20 yards - but Craig Pawson really wasn't having a good day, to have got all three of these wrong the first time. Moreover, as with the Ben Johnson incident last week, his eventual decision to show a yellow card to Willock in the second incident was extremely harsh: Van Hecke managed to pull out of his rash challenge at the last minute, but it was reasonable for the attacker to go to ground in an attempt to avoid an anticipated - and potentially devastating - contact; going down like that is not necessarily 'diving'. Mats Wieffer should definitely have been sent off for a dangerous challenge on Tonali, and on that one VAR failed to intervene; I suppose they're not supposed to adjudicate on yellow card decisions, even for a second yellow (although, obviously, they should have jurisdiction over all potential sendings-off; that's just an absurd oversight in the protocols); but this challenge clearly met the threshold for at least consideration as a straight red card, so they surely could have suggested a second look to Pawson - which would then have given him the option to award a second yellow rather than a straight red, once he'd seen the foul more clearly. But for me, it was every way a straight red. I'm not sure if Newcastle fans can take encouragement from this game or not: they did dominate, and created large numbers of chances - but weren't at all clinical with them, which is why they needed the fortuitous late penalty to salvage a point. I don't think I'd be backing any of their players except Isak for the run-in; and even he might be becoming questionable.

For me, West Ham v Spurs - rather than the much-derided Leicester v Southampton match-up - was the weekend's 'El Crapico': two absolutely awful teams who would have been relegated this year... if promoted Championship sides were able to compete at the higher level any more. Spurs will hide behind the excuse of putting out a 'B team' ahead of their Europa League semi-final second-leg game on Thursday; but to be honest, at the moment their 'first team' isn't any better (one of the few consolations of their dismal season is that they've been able to give so much experience to promising youngsters like Spence, Bergvall, Gray, Moore, Tel, and Odobert). Without an uncharacteristic error (actually, a treble or quadruple error!) from Max Kilman gifting them an early lead, Spurs didn't look likely to get on the scoresheet; without the always lively Jarrod Bowen, neither would West Ham.

We might have expected Liverpool to have a bit of a drop-off in performance after securing the title a month before the end of the season, and perhaps to give a few squad players a run-out; and there have been signs of improvement at Chelsea over the past couple of weeks; but such a comprehensive win by the Blues surely took everyone by surprise. Van Dijk had a rare stinker, slipping more than once and racking up several mistakes and then scoring at his own end (by lashing a panicky clearance into his defensive colleague Quansah),.... before redeeming himself ever so slightly with a late headed goal to put the home side back under a bit of pressure in the closing minutes. Alisson also looked uncharacteristically jittery at times, and was very lucky to avoid a sending-off for cleaning out Madueke outside his area (saved by a late offside flag - although it might still have been judged 'serious foul play'). Jackson's injury-time penalty was a bit soft, but overall Chelsea were well worth their margin of victory - with Lavia and Cucurella particularly impressive, and Palmer absolutely back to his imperious best (as usual, he smashed one effort against the inside of a post, and had a few excellent potential assists spurned by his teammates; with slightly better luck, he could have had a 15 or 20-point haul here).

The final game on Monday night between Palace and Forest looked quite entertaining, with a lot of open, end-to-end football - but both sides misfiring rather in front of goal. No obvious controversies in the match; although Palace's penalty award against Sels looked a bit soft (and it was at first ignored by the ref; and I'm not sure there was a clear enough 'error' for VAR to insist on a second look). And Murillo became yet another defender to unexpectedly wind up on the scoresheet.

A lot of unexpected results this week, with Ipswich battling to a draw at Everton, Wolves being very unlucky not to beat City, Bournemouth stealing a win from a very lacklustre Arsenal, Newcastle labouring to a draw at Brighton, and Chelsea spanking the newly-crowned champions..., while City, Villa, and Leicester were, rather improbably, the only teams to manage to keep a clean sheet. With most of the big names blanking this time (only Palmer, Isak, Mbeumo, Wissa and Bowen produced returns among the highest-owned players), the 'Team of the Week' on Monday was full of left-field improbables; only Gvardiol, DeBruyne and Isak have any significant ownership. Of course, there were a fair few selection surprises and late injury withdrawals too; and some more exasperating eccentricities in the bonus points allocations. And it's ended up another very low-scoring gameweek: most 'good scores' are only in the 40s and 50s this time, and only a handful of outliers have managed much better than 60 points. There have been, I think, 4 or 5 really bad bits of officiating, with Craig Pawson failing to send off Mats Wieffer being the most egregious; but that's actually much better than we've seen in most weeks so far this season. Overall, I'd say this is barely a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter', and really for wayward form and surprising results, rather than the refereeing.

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  Most people will have played the dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip by now; but if you haven't.... it's not too late to refuse to do so! I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season when it was introduced in GW23. [I worry that, if people don't protest vociferously about it, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you didn't feel able to join me in such an emphatic gesture, I hope you at least thought about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip (and still might refuse, if you've kept it till the last few gameweeks of the season).

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW35

There again don't seem to have been that many new injuries this week. 

But 'form' becomes more and more unpredictable in the closing weeks of the season... And once more, we have teams in the semi-finals of the European competitions facing likely 'rest rotations' - or perhaps a general loss of focus - ahead of the crucial second-leg games next week: Arsenal, Manchester United, Spurs, and Chelsea are unlikely to be at their best in the League this weekend!

But at least we've been spared having any more blank and double gameweeks to have to worry about!!

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups, aiming to confine myself to just the injuries to players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who were already ruled out for the last gameweek! [I currently find the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information - go check that out for more comprehensive coverage.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 35?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Marcus Rashford, whose form had been starting to look promising since his loan move to Villa at the start of the year, apparently picked up a hamstring problem in training ahead of last weekend's FA Cup semi-final, and will struggle to be in contention again before the end of the season.

Wesley Fofana missed last week's game against Spurs after suffering another muscle injury, and has needed surgery this week - so will be out until next season. Christopher Nkunku and Robert Sanchez also had to miss the midweek Europa Conference game with unspecified training 'knocks'.

Leicester keeper Mads Hermansen has suffered a relapse of the groin muscle problem that kept him out for a while recently, and now seems likely to miss the rest of the season - unfortunate, as he has been their best player of late.

Conor Bradley missed last weekend with a minor knock - but it seems likely that Trent Alexander-Arnold is fit enough to reclaim the regular start at right-back anyway.

Diogo Dalot has a calf muscle strain that might keep him out for the remainder of the season.

Joelinton has suffered a recurrence of an old knee problem, and is likely to be out for a while.

Callum Hudson-Odoi had to come off against Brentford last night with a hamstring problem; doesn't seem to be too bad, but he's likely to miss this weekend, at least.

Lucas Bergvall missed Spurs's Europa League game last night with an ankle injury picked up in training this week. James Maddison and Dominic Solanke are also now slight doubts after 'precautionary' substitutions last night because of minor injuries.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Ben Johnson is serving a one-match ban after being harshly sent off against Newcastle last week (Ipswich couldn't appeal against the decision because it was for two yellow cards, rather than a straight red).

And Joao Pedro is serving the second game of his three-match suspension after that latest piece of petulance against Brentford.

Bournemouth's Evanilson, however, has had his red card overturned on appeal, so will be available this weekend. (I am somewhat surprised by that verdict. Yes, the collision was clearly 'accidental', in that his standing leg slipped out from underneath him; but it was a horrific challenge - and he slipped because he was lunging in so recklessly. I think these sorts of incidents are usually assessed by consequences and 'lack of care', rather than presumed malicious intention; and on those criteria, the red card was deserved.)

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Newcastle, Fulham, Palace, and Chelsea have been severely unconvincing in recent games. And Spurs, Manchester United, and West Ham have been just awful. It's difficult to see the value in taking many - any?? - players from these teams, even if they have a good fixture.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Umm,.... no. Cody Gakpo and Alejandro Garnacho were the only conspicuous standouts in last week's games - but not to the extent that you'd be wanting to bring them in.

Most people have probably used the 'Assistant Manager' chip by now - wanting to keep the tail-end of the season free to play other chips. With increasing unpredictability of results in the closing weeks of the season, it really shouldn't be a good time to play a chip based on team results anyway; and most of the top teams actually have quite tough run-ins - at least for the next three gameweeks - so there aren't any secure wins in prospect even for the biggest names, and certainly no huge margins of victory or easy clean sheets likely; moreover, most of the stronger teams at the lower end of the table have recovered so well in the past month or two that they no longer have many table-bonus prospects. However, Everton's David Moyes, Brentford's Thomas Frank, Forest's Nuno Espirito Santo and Wolves's Vitor Pereira have a fairly soft closing-run of fixtures, which might offer a tempting prospect of being able to stay with the same manager choice for all three weeks. I fear Everton and Forest are rather going off the boil, but Brentford have a happy knack of scoring plenty of goals even in games they lose, so are probably the most appealing points prospect for this chip now; though I do suspect that Wolves are in such ebullient mood at the moment that they could well pull off a table-bonus win against City tonight!

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

AND PLEASE DON'T FORGET The Boycott; though I'm willing to comment on its possible use, I actually loathe the pointless innovation of the 'Assistant Manager' chip - and I have been urging people to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use the chip, in protest. 

But if you couldn't bring yourself to do either of those things, please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip 

Sheep Picks (12)

 

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

So, for Gameweek 35, I'm going to nominate Ollie Watkins. It's not qctually quite as bad as I'd thought: I've been seeing him mentioned all over the Facebook forums in the last few days, and it had seemed like he was going to be one of the week's most transferred-in players. In fact, it looks like he might come up around 60,000 or 70,000 new buyers - which is significant, but not quite a stampede. However, he has edged up to become the 5th most popular forward (effectively 4th, since Haaland still isn't available to start), with nearly 19% ownership - ahead of the much more in-form Wissa and Cunha.... which is just NUTS.

Now, I like Watkins a lot; and he has started to look sharp again in the last few weeks - particularly in the surprise win against Newcastle the other week, when he notched a goal and an assist. Villa's form, too, so patchy in the first half of the season, has shown a strong improvement since February - and they've now racked up 6 wins in their last 8 games, to come storming up the table to get back into the Champions League conversation (I still don't think they're good enough to deserve to qualify for the premier competition; but at least they're giving it a damn good go at the moment). People are also taking encouragement from the recent news of a significant hamstring injury for Marcus Rashford, which seems to diminish the prospect of Watkins getting rationed minutes any longer.

However, the counter-arguments would be: a)  He's been getting short minutes recently (in fact, he's only played a full 90 two or three times since the turn of the year) because of an injury worry; he might not yet be fully over that, might perhaps still be carrying a problem of some sort.  b)  His omission from so many games, including the recent Champions League showdown with PSG, might suggest other problems - perhaps that he's out of favour with Emery because he's looking to leave the club at the end of the season. c) Villa's 'charge' has been aided by hefty helpings of luck: 2 of their run of wins have come against bottom-of-the-table clubs (which scarcely counts!), while they squeaked wins they didn't really deserve against Chelsea, Brentford, and Forest, and Newcastle mysteriously failed to show up for their surprise 4-1 hammering a couple of weeks ago; Villa were well beaten by City last week, and by Palace early in their present successful run. Their form hasn't really looked all that consistent or convincing. d) The run-in over the final 4 Gameweeks, though not too daunting, is far from straightforward either: Villa might struggle to get a result in some of these fixtures, and certainly can't be assured of any large and comfortable wins.

But - as is usually the case with these strangely over-popular selections - the decisive argument against bringing in Watkins is the quality of the alternative selections. Cunha, Strand Larsen, and Wissa are in outstanding form and have a great closing run of fixtures; Marmoush has also looked very dangerous in recent weeks; Isak and Wood are the season's outstanding performers up-front (though, admittedly, there are signs that both their and their teams' form may be faltering...); and Welbeck, Mateta, and perhaps even Ipswich's Liam Delap could be tempting left-field picks in the closing weeks of the season.

You only get 3 forward picks in FPL. And I don't see how Ollie Watkins, even on the most optimistic assessment of team form and minutes prospects, is any better than the 4th or 5th most promising pick in that position at the moment.

A little bit of Zen (40)

 

“In the practice of Zen, there is no goal. The goal is in the practice itself.”

Dogen Zenji

A final WRINKLE??

 

Just when you thought you might have been almost out of the woods for FPL confusion & calamity,..... it appears there may yet be a further Blank/Double speedbump lurking in our future.

Because the FA Cup has been scheduled before the end of the regular season this year (on Saturday of Gameweek 37 - WHY, WHY???), the Palace v Wolves and City v Bournemouth games in the League will have to be moved from that weekend.

Now, they won't be - can't be! - moved very far: they'll just have to be shunted a few days forwards or backwards into the middle of the adjacent week. And forwards - into the gap between Gameweeks 36 and 37 - seems way more likely, since the League surely wouldn't want to clutter up the final week of the season; and it would be a bit unfair on those four teams to have a substantially shorter recovery time before their final league games (there being no scope to play their weekend games on the Sunday or Monday, as the final matches of the season are now always played simultaneously).

So, yes, that's definitely going to happen. But it's not clear when the rescheduling will be confirmed (maybe not before the upcoming GW35 deadline!), or which of the adjacent Gameweeks the League will choose to include the new dates in.

And just for a further sprinkling of mayhem, Spurs have now cheekily asked if they might be allowed to move their Gameweek 37 fixture (away to Villa) forward slightly, to allow them more time to prepare for a possible Europa League Final (also, weirdly, to be played in the middle of the last week of our domestic season). If they were to be granted that wish, I suppose Manchester United would demand the same privilege. But I don't think the League would like the idea of four matches being moved out of their scheduled weekend starting slots (it would cause all sorts of havoc with the TV arrangements!). And since we won't even know if they 'need' that indulgence until just before the Gameweek 36 deadline, it could be a massive pain-in-the-backside for FPL managers too!

However, I don't think Spurs have much of a leg to stand on with this application; they're just trying it on - with almost zero chance of success. Fixture logjams like this, and additional squad pressure from big midweek games, are part-and-parcel of playing in the European competitions; they've been having to cope with it all season - they should be able to manage the burden just one more time. (And, thankfully, their opponents, Villa, seem to be unwilling to countenance the change, so that probably puts the kibosh on the proposal.)

The FA Cup Final reschedulings, alas, still hang over us, like the proverbial 'Sword of Damocles'. If the League did mischievously decide to declare GW37 a 'blank' week for those teams and GW36 (most probably) a 'double', it would be a HUGE hassle to have to deal with. Even though it's only 4 teams involved, they are 4 teams that most FPL managers have significant representation from; and probably no-one has the Free Hit or Wildcard left any more to skirt around the disruption,... or many (any?) saved Free Transfers either. So, for most of us, it would probably be that painful conundrum of whether to take 'hits' for multiple transfers or put out a short team.

Now, I can't see any earthly reason - other than sheer malice - why the League would choose to declare that moving these matches just a few days moved them into another Gameweek. But they might, they can....  And the not-knowing is agony.

[Fortunately, the League announced the following afternoon that these two games would be moved (surprisingly, back rather than forwards; presumably that was a request from the clubs in the Cup, feeling that they'd rather have a bit of extra prep time for the Wembley Final than for the last day of the League; actually, the last two days of the League!!) to the evening of Tuesday 20th May - but would stay part of Gameweek 37, as I'd anticipated/hoped. Phew!]

Is Cole Palmer playing BADLY?

 

SHORT ANSWER:  NO

LONG ANSWER:  NO - but he has ceased to be appealing as an FPL asset; however, this is mainly down to the crash in Chelsea's form since early December, rather than because he hasn't been playing well.

Yes, the Golden Boy has hit a bit of a scoring drought over the last few months; but that happens to all players from time to time. And it's worth reminding ourselves that he's not a striker; we just grew used to him scoring goals at a striker's rate over last season and the early part of this one! He's not producing regular assists at the moment, either, because the entire Chelsea team has collapsed into dysfunctionality: Maresca-ball just isn't working - and that's not Palmer's fault.

I've been able to watch the entirety of Chelsea's last few games; and I've been looking at Palmer closely.

And he still takes my breath away. 

His alertness and awareness are just on another level. It's become a bit of a cliché in recent years to speak of particularly intelligent players having 'a head-on-a-swivel' - but Palmer really does: if you watch him closely in a game, you notice that he is glancing around him constantly - not just every few seconds, but just about every single second, checking the changing situation around him from moment to moment. This is a very hard thing to count (sometimes this glancing around is just a quick motion of the eyes rather than a plainly visible turn of the neck or the upper body), but I'd guess that Palmer is maybe scanning at least twice as often as just about any other player.

This leads to an uncanny degree of spatial awareness. Most players, if they're really switched on, will try to make sure that they always have an open passing lane from or to at least one of their teammates, even if they're not likely to receive the ball; Palmer almost invariably has at least two or three passing channels available! Not only that, but his 'rest defence' posture is impeccable too: he's almost always not only putting himself in space where he can be easily found by a Chelsea teammate, but at the same time putting himself more or less on a line between two opponents (so that his 'cover shadow' would make it difficult for them to pass to each other, if their team should suddenly regain possession of the ball). Often, indeed, he somehow manages to be blocking two potential opposition passing lanes at the same time, as well as being in good space to receive. And he is almost constantly in motion, seemingly unthinkingly taking a subtle step or two one way or another to always optimise his positioning. Really, I think in the Premier League at the moment only Martin Odegaard comes close to this level of acuity in his positioning; and he's not that close.

He's incredibly alert and quick-to-respond as well. When a defender miscontrols a ball, he's often off like a bullet-from-a-gun to pile pressure on the guy; when the ball is played into the box, Palmer is almost always one of the first men following up to try to get on the end of it; when a shot rebounds or is fumbled in the six-yard box, Palmer seems to be invariably the quickest to react on either team.

Now, I think it is possible that Palmer's performance might have dipped ever so slightly - perhaps even in some of these areas I just mentioned: maybe his rate-of-scanning or speed-of-response has fallen off, almost imperceptibly, by just a few percent.... but enough to occasionally have a small impact on his returns. I think it's also very likely that he is suffering some physical and mental fatigue, from having had to play almost every game in the League (and having to bear the responsibility of being both principal playmaker and principal goalscorer in a severely under-performing team); and, given that he gets lumps kicked out of him in every game, he's probably been carrying one or two little niggling injuries from time to time as well.

And it would be surprising if even his apparently ironclad self-confidence hadn't taken a bit of a dent from Chelsea's woeful run of form over the last few months, if he weren't starting to feel a bit demoralised by how badly things have been going; and that might - sometimes - take a little bit of an edge off his previously uncanny finishing.

But Cole Palmer has not been playing poorly over the past four months or so; he's still been Chelsea's best player, the only member of the side who regularly looks like he can create a threat. He hasn't suddenly become a bad player: he's the best creative midfield player in the Premier League, and one of the best in the world.

The amount of disparagement of Palmer we've been seeing online recently is quite unwarranted. And it is, sadly, an example of one of the great vices among the FPL community: people don't like to take responsibility for their Fantasy performance - they always want to blame their players.

This combines with other unlovely traits of humankind: a suspicion or resentment of exceptional talent (a refusal to believe that someone can be as good as Palmer is...), particularly in comparison to other 'favourite' players (partisans of Arsenal or City or United are always trying to contrive arguments that Palmer is 'not as good' as Saka or Foden or Fernandes... a fatuous debate, since they all have different strengths and weaknesses, different styles of play; but the fact that these players are commonly discussed together surely demonstrates that they are all similarly exceptional...).

Palmer's had a very disappointing run of FPL returns since the end of last year. But he's never been outside the top 3 or 4 FPL players for the year (and is still miles ahead of Saka, Foden, Fernandes, etc....), and will surely finish the season with well over 200 points. Moreover, I think he's been exceptionally unlucky (Chelsea have had so many good penalty shouts turned down this season; and Palmer has hit the post, or demanded a great stop from the opposing keeper, in just about every single game); and I would still bet on him picking up at least one or two more decent hauls this season.

He is not a bad player; he has not been playing badly.  People who make such accusations are deeply bitter and biased, and ignorant of football.