Luck-o-Meter (22)

Well, there don't seem to have been any horrendous refereeing cock-ups on Day One (well, only one); the major surprise in the first half of the 'gameweek' was the rash of unexpected results or at least near-upsets; Bournemouth thrashing Newcastle at St James's, Arsenal throwing away a two-goal home lead to Villa, Liverpool nearly losing at Brentford, and Palace and Fulham labouring to unconvincing wins against dreadful West Ham and Leicester.

The weekend began with what might be one of the biggest 'upsets' of the season so far: I mean, Bournemouth have been on an improving trend, and I had expected them to give Newcastle a tough game and not concede easily - but I don't think anyone can really have expected to see them win against the league's most in-form team, much less hand out a thorough spanking (things might have been even worse for the home side, with Ouattara unluckily - but correctly - having another effort ruled out, and substitute Jebbison wasting a golden chance from a solo breakaway in the closing minutes). It was a lively game, very entertaining, with both keepers needing to make some sharp saves to keep the scoreline down. But Newcastle were somehow not quite at the races for this one (the curse of the lunchtime kick-off, cumulative exhaustion from the hectic winter schedule, or just the mounting pressure to keep extending their long winning run??), while Bournemouth produced surely their best performance of the season. (And teenage defender Dean Huijsen had an absolute monster of game, not allowing the hitherto unstoppable Alexander Isak a kick.)

Mid-season fatigue is perhaps setting in everywhere now. Leicester started brightly at home, but just couldn't convert any of their several chances, and gradually faded through the second half. And, while they do suggest some attacking threat, their defence is still absolutely dreadful. Visitors Fulham, though, were scarecely that much better; they appeared to be playing most of the game at half-speed, and their two goals kind of came out of nowhere, rare incisive attacks in a mostly very drab performance.

Well, damn, Danny Murphy, usually my favourite of the BBC's pundits - but, of course, a Liverpool man to his boots - seemed to think that was a peak Liverpool performance. I watched it live, and thought they were miles below their best in fluidity and incisiveness; although you have to give a lot of credit to Brentford, who have suddenly become much more cohesive and resilient in defence (even Flekken is starting to look quite decent). The home side had slightly the best of things, in a close-fought, ding-dong game, at least in the first-half; and although Liverpool had a lot of attempts, most of them were hopeful shots from distance which never really troubled the keeper. Only Szoboszlai's early drive against the cross-bar, and Macalliser's stinging long-range shot that Flekken had to tip around his far post (although it was probably going just wide anyway) could be counted as 'near-misses' - their only other really close call was a first-half sitter which Cody Gakpo mishit so badly that it ended up as neither a cross nor a shot, and dribbled tamely wide of the far post. Brentford had plenty of chances, and rather better ones, of their own (how did Damsgaard not get on the end of that fierce square ball in the opening minutes, when he was unmarked three yards from goal??), but their usually clinical finishing somehow deserted them on this occasion. But of course, Liverpool's great strengths are their persistence, and their confidence in the wealth of additional talent they can bring on from the bench: Darwin Nunez is starting to make a habit of nicking winning goals deep into added-on time. But the one major controversy in this game involved the goalscorer; having already received the mandatory booking for taking his shirt off in celebrating his breakthrough goal, he should have got a second for a wild tackle on Nathan Collins moments later.... and then a third when he went on to score a second and ran into the crowd for another non-sanctioned celebration. These are absolutely clearcut, unarguable yelow-card offences - and it is a major flaw of the current officiating system that VAR is not given any responsibility for intervening on second-yellow incidents.

Thus far, Graham Potter may only have succeeded in making West Ham even worse. They were absolutely abysmal in this game, and Crystal Palace, who struggled to beat them, really weren't much better: centre-forward Jean-Philippe Mateta finally seems to be coming into some form (although he was lucky to get away with scoring the worst penalty kick we've seen all season!), but the rest of the team is really not sparking at all. Fabianski had a very bad day at the office: he really shouldn't have let Mateta beat him with a central shot from 21 yards out, made a stupid challenge on Nketiah to concede the late penalty, and then really should have saved Mateta's feeble scuffed spot-kick. I suspect Areola might be getting his starting place back soon - although he apparently has an unspecified injury problem at the moment. At least there wasn't any question about the Mavropanos sending-off; except that perhaps it should have been a straight red, for kicking an opponent in the face.

Saliba's late withdrawal with a muscle problem will have been a hard blow for the astonishing 27.6% of FPL managers that own him, and presumably invariably start him (I've never understood this over-popularity, as he is quite clearly only the third best pick from the Arsenal defence this year, after Gabriel and Timber...). And Lucas Digne's more modest 6.7% ownership were no doubt equally piqued by Emery's decision to give Ian Maatsen a run-out in his stead; although he repented of that at half-time, so Digne's starts in future are presumably now looking more secure - and he did produce one of the assists here. Saliba's absence naturally unsettled the home side a fair bit, requiring a reordering of their defence and leaving them short of muscle in the middle of the park, with Partey being switched to right-back; and it was indeed a dreadful error by Partey, losing track of Watkins and allowing him to ghost into the six-yard box completely unmarked, that let Villa in for the equaliser. Arsenal, to be fair, nearly claimed the win with a flurry of late attacks, having Merino hit a fierce shot against the base of a post deep into injury time, and Martinez then making a good save with his legs to deny Trossard on the follow-up at the near-post; then, in the dying seconds Trossard had another golden chance when played in behind by Lewis-Skelly's neat reverse pass. Arsenal will also feel disappointed that an apparent winner from Merino was disallowed for a handball by Havertz; but it was crystal clear on the replay that the ball had deflected off his forearm, and when that's part of the goal attempt, it's a 'strict liability' offence, presumed intentionality or decisive impact are not in issue. The Gunners should rather be grateful to have hung on for a point, as Villa had been a mite unlucky to see Tielemans crash a shot against the foot of the post less than a minute after his opening goal, and might well have nicked all 3 points before Arsenal mounted their late rally. Overall, though, Villa really weren't all that good for the most part, and questions have to be asked about why Arsenal couldn't make more of their first-half dominance.... and why they fell apart so badly in the second half.

Good grief - Everton have somehow remembered how to score goals! How on earth did that happen? And how long will they be able to remember the trick??  OK, it was only against an injury-ravaged Spurs, at their most Spursy, but still...  For a team who've generally struggled to find even 1 goal in 90 minutes to rack up 3 in the first half is probably the biggest surprise of the week.  And but for a trio of sharp saves by Kinsky early on, from Lindstram, Mangala, and Tarkowsky, this might have degnerated into an absolute landslide against the visitors. Spurs did assert themselves a tad more effectively in the second half, and even managed a couple of late goals to make the closing minutes a bit anxious for the home fans. But they do look really clueless at the moment; and the 'dead pool' betting on the date of Postecoglou's sacking intensifies.

You suspected André Onana was going to have one of his flakey days at Old Trafford when, after just a few minutes, he elected for a flappy punch at Joao Pedro's low cross - rather than a catch, or tipping it over his bar, or just pushing it on across his goalmouth to safety - pushing it straight forward... apparently oblivious of the fact that Danny Welbeck was bearing down on him, less than a yard away; the rebound off the Brighton man's torso might easily have flown straight into the goal, but luckily for Onana, it looped harmlessly just over the bar. Diallo appeared to have been brought down in the penalty area by Estupinan's clumsy challenge from behind, but we didn't even hear if VAR was 'looking at' that one; fortunately for the sake of justice, there was even less doubt about Baleba hooking his arm across the back of Zirkzee's head and dragging him to the floor, on a follow-up attack just moments later. The hapless Onana probably could have done more to keep out Minteh's opener, and Joao Pedro's apparent third (unluckily, bur probably rightly ruled out for a minor foul by Van Hecke), and absolutely gifted Brighton their actual third by fumbling a simple ball into the middle of his penalty area  and presenting it on a plate to Rutter. United fans are losing confidence in the big French keeper again, starting to bay for his scalp.

Forest v Southampton followed a similar pattern to the Everton game - although the hosts didn't get their foot off the gas quite so badly in the second half, and were here almost thwarted by some abysmal luck rather than anything else. In the first half, they looked as if they could score at will against an utterly limp Southampton, with a pair of screamers from Elliot Anderson and Callum Hudson-0doi, and the inevitable header from Chris Wood putting them comfortably on top. But then Ramsdale made a smart double-save from Elanga and Gibbs-White early in the second half to stop the game getting completely out of reach, and shortly afterwards the visitors pulled one back with a hopeful shot from outside the box that took a huge deflection that left Sels with no chance. Then a perfectly good 4th, when the keeper somehow mishandled Milenkovic's firm but unproblematic header from a free-kick on the left, was eventually chalked off. VAR unfathomably decided to tell Simon Hooper to take a second look, because Wood might have been marginally offside, although he wasn't in any way 'interfering' with play; but simply being sent to look at the monitor evidently prejudiced the referee into thinking that the goal must not be kosher - ridiculous decision! (At least it was the only bad refereeing gaffe of the weekend.)  At least it spared the blushes of Ramsdale, who had somehow managed to fumble a fairly simple catch and chuck it over his own shoulder into the net. Then Southampton's giant new centre-forward Paul Onuachu headed powerfully home from a corner, just as it had been announced that there would be an astonishing 12 minutes of stoppage time added (WHY?? Surely Hooper's goof-up of the Milenkovic decision didn't take that long??) - which made for a very nervous end to the game for Forest and their fans.... and meant that the most important action of the day was Ola Aina's extraordinary goal-line clearance right at the death.

Manchester City sort of got their mojo back; although proving that you're not one of the four or five worst teams in the league after all is not perhaps something to get that excited about. Ipswich looked quite lively at the start of the game, and actually made some good chances in the first 15 minutes or so - particularly Omari Hutchinson's fierce drive that went just over the bar. If one of those chances had been converted, the match might have taken a very different course. Alas, after that bright start, they began to increasingly sit back and invite their visitors on to them, which, of course, was asking for trouble. Keeper Walton letting a soft Foden effort go right through him to put City 3 up just before going into the break broke their will. However, they did still create a few moments of danger in the second half, mainly through Liam Delap; and the scoreline was harsh on them. Two of the goals were gifted to City by errors - Walton's uncharacteristic fumble of the Foden shot, and Jack Clarke's clumsy square pass that let Doku in to set up Haaland for an easy 5th - but the other 4 were all just superb finishes that no team would have been able to stop.

And a fairly miserable end to the Gameweek's woeful proceedings for all Cole Palmer owners....  Chelsea got their expected comfortable win against flailing Wolves, but Palmer somehow missed to contribute to any of the goals?? He came close, of course; had one good effort well saved by Sa early on, and set up Jackson for a neat fourth goal.... only to have it ruled out for a narrow offside! Poor guy just can't catch a break at the moment (and neither can I!).  Bit of an oddity, too, that three of the four goals here were scored by defenders!

A dubiously disallowed goal for Forest, one or two penalties that might have been given, and Darwin Nunez inexplicably escaping being sent off for a second yellow card... but overall, a pretty good week for the officiating. How I wish this was the norm, rather than the rare exception.

This week's 'luck' and surprise mostly centred on the unexpected performances, many, many thumping goals, and disappointing returns from many of the 'usual suspects': Van Dijk, the Arsenal and Forest defences, Palmer, Salah, Diallo, Mbeumo, Wissa, Gordon and Isak all blanked, while Newcastle, Manchester United, and Spurs all got badly beaten (the first two at home), Liverpool and Arsenal nearly got beaten, and Forest almost let Southampton recover a three-goal deficit to draw. Crazy stuff. While the 'Team of the Week' doesn't contain any complete randoms (Minteh, Kovacic, Chalobah, and Kluivert are the most surprising inclusions), not many of them could be said to be among the week's most expected returners. However, because of the week's mostly 'good' refereeing, I think I'm going to award this one just a modest 4 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter.

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott (that damned new chip will be in play after next weekend...):

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW22

 

A yawning silence still hangs over the transfer market - perhaps we're really not going to see any big moves, in or out, this year....?

Nevertheless, I continue to warn - Cassandra-like - that this month, and probably next month too, is a very bad time to play the 2nd Wildcard.

Given the very short turnaround between Gameweeks this time, it's unlikely we'll get very much team news out on Friday - but I'll update here, if any emerges. For the moment, there appear to have been no new problems arising in the midweek batch of games.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 22?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Amazingly, we don't seem to have lost anyone else to injury in the midweek games - although Palace's Jefferson Lerma came off against Ipswich because he felt nauseous, so might be a doubt for the weekend. And I wouldn't be at all surprised if Ipswich keeper, Christian Walton, needs to be rested for a mild concussion, after Joao Pedro violently barged him in the face on Thursday night.

Also, the injury Gabriel Jesus picked up in the Cup game against Manchester United last Sunday has now been confirmed to be an ACL tear, which will keep him out for the rest of the season.

Updates:  Enzo Maresca grumbled in his Friday press conference that Palmer, Lavia, Fernandez and Colwill were all suffering with knocks and were missing training that day. However, since they don't play Wolves until Monday evening, there is strong hope that they'll all be fine to take part. It does throw this week's Captaincy Conundrum into turmoil, though!

Ismaila Sarr has been suffering with some leg-muscle tightness, though Glasner sounded quite optimistic about his participation.

Fabian Schar is also a doubt after suffering a bout of 'serious illness' in midweek.

Tyer Dibling has reportedly picked up an ankle injury in the match against United on Thursday.

Yves Bissouma is feeling a knock, and Brennan Johnson is complaining of a sore calf-muscle after the midweek game (but, really, does anyone have Spurs players at the moment??).

Jean-Clair Todibo and Alphonse Areola are also missing for West Ham due to unspecified injuries, though they're only squad players.

Mario Lemina, only recently back from a spell of injury, apparently missed the Wednesday game at Newcastle at his own request, having asked for a move away from Molineux; but he has now apologised to teammates for this behaviour, and might be included again on Monday. Matheus Cunha, however, who only played the second half against Newcastle as he feels his way back from a muscle injury picked up at the turn of the year, is now reported to be yet another victim of 'illness' (he'll probably be OK for Monday; but you wouldn't really fancy his chances against Chelsea...).

Oh, and there are rumours that William Saliba may have picked up a problem (not spotted in training on Friday??); but there's nothing very solid on this, and I suspect it's just smoke-and-mirrors from The Emirates Psy-Ops Department.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

We're out of the woods for 'totting-up' suspensions at last. And no-one got sent off in the midweek games, so we're not missing anyone with a ban this time.

Kalvin Phillips is still a City player, so ineligible to turn out for Ipswich this weekend - but he's hardly featured for them anyway.

And Trevoh Chalobah has been recalled to Chelsea from his loan spell with Palace. I imagine this is just as emergency cover - but, at only 4.4 million currently, he could become a tempting fifth defender if he gets a run of starts.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

As expected, Kyle Walker was dropped from the City squad, after requesting a move (but he's been terrible lately, so I can't see why anyone would have had him for FPL anyway).

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, I tipped Bruno Fernandes and Amad Diallo last time. Although United's team performance against Southampton was flakey, I think they'll probably be a good bet again at home against Brighton.

Many people are getting unduly excited about Phil Foden's brace against Brentford; but I still see no convincing sign of a general revival at City, and will be very wary of taking any of their players until there is.

My slightly more left-field suggestion would be Nicolas Jackson, who had an excellent game against Bournemouth - coming very close to scoring a number of times, and setting up Cole Palmer very neatly for the opening goal.

PS: First new signing of note!

The exciting Dutch wide attacker, Donyell Malen, has joined Villa from Borrussia Dortmund, and Unai Emery suggested that he might be able to participate for them straight away (though surely only as a sub first time out?). Leon Bailey looks likeliest to make way. This is definitely one to watch.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott:

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A little bit of Zen (25)

 

"We are what we do repeatedly. Excellence, therefore, does not consist in single actions, but in our habits."

Aristotle

Luck-o-Meter (21)

It's still difficult to discern any strong evidence of a City revival. Apart from two good finishes from Foden, they never really looked the better side at Brentford, and were often being cut open at will by the home team - and thus it was no big surprise that they gave up 2 goals inside the last 10 minutes to end up dropping points again (and might very nearly have lost all 3 points to Mbeumo's last-gasp effort).

Nico Jackson - though there's little love for him in the FPL community at the moment - had an impressive game against Bournemouth: playing in Palmer for the opener, thumping a 20-yard drive against the foot of the left-hand post, and having several more good attempts (all well saved or blocked, rather than being fluffed). But Chelsea's abysmal fortune with the referees continues: David Brooks hauling Cucurella to the ground by his hair - when he was running at full tilt! - is somehow not considered 'violent conduct'?? Is hair-pulling a 'grey area' in the interpretation guidelines?? (And VAR apparently only had one TV camera on the incident, which was at extreme range - but even so, it was pretty damn clear, and that can't be used as an excuse for 'uncertainty' about the nature of the offence.) And then Rob Jones added to insult to injury by coming up with yet another way of denying Chelsea a penalty for Jackson's being hauled to the ground by his shirt inside the box: awarding a free-kick for a separate - near-simultaneous but much less serious - offence just outside the box?! At least Reece James got the last-gasp equaliser from that kick, so justice was done on the overall result - but it was still a terrible decision. (I thought the penalty decision against Caicedo to get Bournemouth back in the game was a bit soft too: hardly any contact, and both players running into each other...)

West Ham produced... well, I hate to say the most undeserved, but certainly the most unexpected result of the Gameweek, somehow pulling off a 3-2 win against Fulham, despite being mostly fairly dreadful, and still wide open at the back. They needed an untypical stinker of a game from Leno in goal to hand them the chance, and a bit of sloppy finishing, and some poor luck (Harry Wilson and Raul Jimenez both crashed efforts against the crossbar in the first half), from Fulham to seal the narrow win, in a game the visiting side had completely dominated.

Amadou Onana was very fortunate not to be sent off for two clumsy fouls on Tuesday night. And Tielemans hauling Calvert-Lewin to the ground by his neck when waiting for a corner - the most egregious bit of wrestling at set-pieces in this match, but not the only one - was an obvious penalty, but somehow ignored by VAR. Overall, though, this one was a pretty drab affair: both sides looked like mid-table mediocrities.

Forest appeared to completely dominate Liverpool in the first half, but weren't able to capitalise on their early lead, and the visitors gradually came back into the game more and more strongly in the second half, particularly after Jota's introduction 20 minutes after the break - he immediately nicked a barely deserved equaliser in Arsenal fashion from a corner! Sels, however, was in defiant form in the Forest goal. Trent was a bit lucky to escape punishment for 'accidentally' punching a Forest player (he shouldn't have been punching the ball away either; a reckless and unnecessary gesture - I can't recall ever seeing a player do that before!), but the refereeing otherwise looked fine in this one. No surprise, really, that between two of the best defences in the league, it was a hard-fought, cagey, low-scoring game. The major head-scratching injustice in FPL terms was that Sels, despite notching 5 saves and being most people's 'Man of the Match', didn't get anywhere near earning even 1 bonus point under the game's absurd BPS ratings.

Arsenal deserved their win on the balance of play over a poor Spurs, but their crucial equalising goal (yet again from Gabriel attacking a corner!) should not have happened, since Porro had clearly played the ball out off Trossard's leg: the strongest example I think we've yet seen this season of wrong decisions other than penalties and red cards also having the potential to swing games. Spurs's new keeper, Antonin Kinsky, didn't exactly cover himself in glory; a few very shakey moments on the ball, and he really should not have let Trossard's shot get past him from that range. It was rough on Solanke to be penalised for an 'own goal'; but even rougher on Gabriel - who had done all the work for it! - to be denied the 'assist' on it. Apparently, the ball was deemed to have flicked off two Spurs players before it entered the net. I didn't see that! But so what, anyway? A player is still credited with a goal no matter how many bodies it ricochets off on its path to the net, so long as the ball was deemed to be goalbound at the instant he played it. Why should it be any different with an assist??? (In fact, the FA has stated that this season 'assists' are going to be credited if the ball reaches the place it appeared to be intended for, despite intervening deflections. And so far, we've seen usually an over-generous interpretation of this - with 'assists' being given for crosses or square balls that took huge deflections, and clearly fell to a different teammate than the one intended. There is still some inconsistency here!)

Leicester v Palace might well have been the worst game of the season so far. Even Oliver Glasner admitted they didn't really deserve to win the game on their general level of performance. On this evidence, Leicester might spare Southampton the ignominy of finishing dead last. But Palace don't look likely to drag themselves far out of the bottom-of-the-table scrap. There wasn't even enough action in the game to give the officials a chance to screw up a big decision!

The luck definitely wasn't with Wolves on their visit to Newcastle: Strand Larsen glanced an effort off the outside of one post in the first half, and had a fierce shot palmed against the face of the other late in the second; Cunha, only appearing as a second-half substitute, also had a good effort go very narrowly wide, and Dubravka was ultimately credited with a remarkable 7 saves; and I couldn't see anything wrong with the alleged 'handball' for which Santiago Bueno's late consolation goal was disallowed. Newcastle, however, were much the better side, and well worth the win - just not perhaps the clean-sheet bonuses!

Joao Pedro should have been red carded, but mysteriously got left off with a yellow, when he recklessly charged into Ipswich goalkeeper Christian Walton, shoulder-charging him in the face. And the VAR chaps once more just sat on their hands - disgraceful decision! That appears to have been the only point of interest in a fairly sterile encounter; although some online commentators mention an exceptional amount of wrestling in the box at corners, from both sides. Brighton were somewhat improved over recent flakey performances, but still hardly impressive; Ipswich disappointingly lacklustre. And the BPS was up to its funny business again, somehow concluding that Estupinan was more deserving of extra points than either of the goalscorers!

I feel embarrassed by my (rare!) good fortune in having had my captain's armband on Amad Diallo last night: precisely similar emotions, I imagine, to Ruben Amorim, who was spared an ignominious home defeat at the hands of bottom club Southampton by the youngster's late, late hattrick. Southampton had overpowered a lacklustre United for most of the game, with Dibling in particular looking very dangerous; and Andre Onana had to make a string of smart stops to keep the game within reach. However, it does look as if United should have had a penalty when Walker-Peters handled the ball in the box early on. (I've only seen stills of it, but it does look pretty egregious - arm way above the shoulder, and obviously moving towards the ball. I think there's some suggestion that he might have been off-balanced by a gentle shove in the back from Diallo - but, unless you're going to call a foul against the United player, that shouldn't make any difference. And, yet again, this appears to be a case where VAR was simply unwilling to overrule the referee, however obvious the error.)

Another pretty terrible week for the refereeing decisions: at least 3 clearcut penalties turned down, 3 players escaping deserved red cards, a dubiously disallowed goal by Wolves - and that misawarded corner-kick leading to an Arsenal goal...  Not the worst we've seen, but pretty damn bad. Diallo coming up with three goals right at the death is a rare turn-up too. And there did seem to be an above-average incidence of shots against the woodwork and high-class saves this week. But no surprise results, except perhaps for Bournemouth holding a faltering Chelsea to a draw at Stamford Bridge; oh, and of course, West Ham's out-of-nowhere, completely against the run-of-the-game win over Fulham. Hence, the 'Team of the Week' isn't wildly unexpected - although few perhaps would have bet on Martin Dubravka notching 7 saves and 2 bonus points to end up as top keeper for the week, or on Marc Guehi to pick up a goal (and a very good one at that!), or on Tyrone Mings, Ezri Konsa, and Pervis Estupinan to be so extravagantly blessed by the BPS Fairy; up front, the usual suspects all came good, with Isak, Wood, Watkins, and even Haaland getting on the scoresheet; but midfield stalwarts Salah, Mbeumo, and Palmer were edged out of the list this time by Diallo, Iwobi, Semenyo, Foden, and Mitoma (all justifiable picks; but it's pretty unlikely that anyone has more than one of them!). Overall, then, despite the dreadful VAR performance, I think this gameweek is only a weak 7 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter.

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott:

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Picks of the Week (4)

DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I thought I would start occasionally trying to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves''. (And some weeks, I'll have nothing.....)

And in fact I have had NOTHING for a full month now (December is a terrible time to be making predictions - with so many rotations amid the crowded schedule, mounting fatigue, and a landslide of injuries and totting-up suspensions). So,  I'm feeling under a bit of pressure to come up with something again now. But I will preface these thoughts with a bigger caveat than usual: these are are very much players I think I are worth keeping an eye on - but not at all ones you should be buying immediately (well, not the second two, anyway).

So, first up we have Amad Diallo - who was nearly-but-not-quite a 'pick'  in this series four weeks ago. I'm probably a bit 'late to the party' on this one, since the young United star has certainly been an intriguing property in FPL for several weeks, and his ownership is now well over 15%. But so fickle are the FPL 'sheep' that there was a massive sell-off under way at the end of December, after he'd 'blanked' a mere two or three times (to be fair, the disillusion might have been more reasonably based on the general direness of Manchester United's performances in those matches, rather than those of Diallo himself, who, I thought, was still putting up a good show... in impossible circumstances). And despite a 9-pt haul against Liverpool the other week, and another impressive showing as a sub in the FA Cup victory over Arsenal on Sunday, his ownership seems to be continuing to dwindle (ever so slightly), rather than grow; the tide of 'public opinion' has, inexplicably, turned against the young man. Now, I still have doubts about how decisively Manchester United have turned the corner under Amorim's leadership, how robust their recent impressive renaissance may prove to be. But there's no questioning that something remarkable has happened at the club in the past couple of weeks: in the last two games, against 'better' opposition, they showed more passion, more cohesion, and were tactically smarter than their opponents - and you can feel the confidence in the team swelling after these two excellent results. They have Southampton up next. And their difficult fixture-run over the holiday period is now behind them; it's all looking much less challenging for them for a good way ahead now. I brought Diallo in a few weeks ago; I didn't lose patience with him over a short run of blanks (when he was still playing well); and I'm seriously thinking of making him captain this gameweek!

The near-simultaneous long-term injuries to Bournemouth's two central attackers last week could lead to a much more regular, important, and dangerous role for Dango Ouattara. I confess, this one is pretty speculative: there's a chance that the club will try to bring in a new striker during the current transfer window. And Antoine Semenyo is another prime candidate to take over at centre-forward, if they don't. But I think Ouattara's superior pace and muscularity probably make him a better fit for this position than Semenyo; and he did just produce a very impressive try-out for the role in this weekend's FA Cup tie. He only costs 5 million, and he's classified as a midfielder. However, I proffer this thought more as a wait-and-see, since Bournemouth have a rough run of fixtures until the middle of February. Moreover, there's a lot of competition for attention in the budget midfielder category, with the likes of Kevin Schade, Anthony Elanga, Harry Wilson, Omari Hutchinson, and Lucas Bergvall making some waves in recent weeks - as well as the aforementioned Amad Diallo, of course; and yes, even Morgan Rogers! [I have been fairly consistently 'sceptical' of Rogers's claims as the budget midfield pick since the very start of the season; but I have also always maintained that this is not because of any lack of admiration for his talent. I've simply felt that Villa's League form this season has been too fragile, and that the way he's mostly been played is not conducive to him getting regular attacking contributions. If you look at his heat-maps, he's often getting on the ball deep in his own half, and the great majority of his touches seem to be usually in and around the centre circle; he's very good at carrying the ball forward, but he's usually been releasing it to an attacking teammate long before he gets all that near the opposing penalty area. However, I think the gradual return of Boubacar Kamara to the Villa set-up since the tail-end of November may have been transformative: they now look much more secure in midfield, much less vulnerable to counter-attack, and that seems to be giving the other midfielders much more confidence to press further forward, without the constant fear of immediately having to sprint back to try to cover if there's a change in possession. And Rogers, in particular, seems to have been blossoming in this new environment, with 2 goals and 2 assists in the last four games (and another one in the Cup on Friday evening!); what's more, these have looked to me like replicable goals, like the sort of thing we could easily imagine him repeating on a frequent basis if he continues to play like this - whereas the few he'd got earlier in the season all looked like out-of-the-blue one-offs, untypical of his general play. Villa as a whole still look pretty flakey to me; but I think Rogers is - finally - worth consideration for that fifth midfielder slot.]

And finally.... the most speculative suggestion of the lot: Liverpool's 21-year-old right-back, Conor Bradley. Yes, at the moment, Trent looks as though he'll be staying till the end of the season, and keeping the start. But there must be a very good chance that Trent could be leaving in the next couple of weeks; and if negotiations with Real (or some other surprise suitor?) start tending that way, he might be dropped at any moment. Perhaps Arne Slot's giving him the armband against Accrington Stanley in the Cup on Saturday was less a 'vote of confidence' after his stinker of a performance against United in the League the previous week and more of a sentimental farewell....? If that happens, young Mr Bradley could be about to become the hottest defensive property in FPL. He was rather unkindly priced at 5.0 million at the start of the season (ridiculous for a player who can't have been expected to get many starts; but I suppose it says something about how well he played when he did stand in for Trent a handful of times last season), but he has fallen now to just 4.7. And I really don't think there's any better defensive prospect in FPL at that price at the moment. I am rather hoping that Trent is packing his bags for Spain already....

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott:

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW21

Still nothing much happening in the winter 'transfer window', but that must surely change soon - probably not for this midweek gameweek, but very possibly for GW22 at the weekend, or GW23 the gameweek after. We might imminently see some new players coming into the league (City and Arsenal, and probably also Manchester United are surely looking for a couple of key signings). But the loss of existing players, and the potential disruption ensuing from uncertainty and bad feeling around potential moves, could have even more impact than exciting new arrivals.. We've seen a number of times in recent years that when negotiations around a possible move get tense, managers often prefer to remove the player in question from their squads; that is a big hazard to watch out for over the coming month. There may also be some psychological knock-on effects elsewhere; if Gyokeres really is finally headed to Arsenal, for example, there could be a danger that the likes of Jesus, Trossard, or Havertz could be distracted, disaffected by concerns about what that might mean for their prospects of a regular start.

So, we have still a particularly tricky month ahead, which - quite apart from any other considerations (like all the much more useful, necessary, things you might have to use it for later in the season) - makes this week, or any time this month, a very bad time to play the 2nd Wildcard.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 21?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Oops - perhaps Mikel Arteta was right to be so cautious about playing Ethan Nwaneri, because when the youngster was given a start in the last game against Brighton, he developed a leg muscle problem and had to come off at half-time, and he's expected to be out for at least a few weeks. And Arsenal suffered a raft of further injury worries in Sunday's FA Cup game against Manchester United: Riccardo Calafiori missed the game with a leg-muscle problem, while Jorginho, Jurrien Timber, and Gabriel Jesus all had to exit the game - Jesus looking like he might have quite a serious knee injury.

Rodrigo Betancur will be out for a while, after his mysterious collapse in the League Cup Semi-Final against Liverpool last week. The club are citing 'concussion protocols', because he bashed his face pretty hard on the ground when he fell; but he appeared to have already lost consciousness in mid-air as he dived for a header, so I would think he'd have to undergo a lot of tests to determine if he suffered some sort of seizure or a transient heart arrhythmia.

Bournemouth have been particularly unlucky this past week, losing both their main striker Evanilson (a broken metatarsal that needed surgery, so will probably sideline him for a couple of months) and his back-up Enes Unal (with an ACL tear that will rule him out till next season) in quick succesion. This may be good news for Dango Ouattara, who put in an excellent display as the central striker in the FA Cup demolition of West Bromwich Albion on Saturday.

Problems at Villa too, where Jaden Philogene and Diego Carlos had to pull out of the last match against Leicester with training knocks, while John McGinn again tweaked his hamstring in that game and had to come off, then Emi Martinez missed the Cup game against West Ham with a 'small' training injury, and Ross Barkley had to come off in that one with a calf strain. (These are probably not players that anyone owns; but still, that big a dent in their squad is likely to impair their form, and make assets like Watkins or Rogers a bit more dubious over the next few weeks...)

There's been a fair old rash of ankle injuries in the past week as well: Joao Pedro, Sammie Szmodics, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, and Armando Broja - hopefully not too serious, but all doubts for this week.

Rodrigo Muniz is also a doubt, after coming off in the Cup tie against Watford with a back-muscle problem.

Harvey Barnes could be out for around a month, after coming off in the weekend's Cup tie with a tight hamstring.

Ipswich's Omari Hutchinson (groin strain) and Conor Chaplin (knee injury) are also likely to be out for at least a couple of weeks.

West Ham full-back Emerson missed the last game against City with a knock picked up in training, and Crysencio Summerville and Niklas Fullkrug both had to come off in Friday's cup tie at Villa; Fullkrug's problem apparently looks quite serious - which leaves the Hammers without any forward players.

Craig Dawson and Nelson Semedo picked up muscle problems in training at the start of the month, causing them to miss the last game against Forest, and this weekend's Cup tie against Bristol City - but they might be available again for this gameweek. No further word on Matheus Cunha's injury at the end of last year, but presumablly no news is good news.....

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Liverpool and Everton, having had their derby fixture at Goodison postponed due to bad weather a month ago, hadn't yet reached the 19-game cut-off point for totting-up suspensions: and poor Darwin Nunez managed to pick up a fifth booking in Gameweek 20 - the only new suspension this week.

Oh... and Diogo Dalot will be suspended, after getting sent off for two yellow-card fouls in the Cup tie against Arsenal yesterday.

Kepa, on loan with Bournemouth, is ineligible to face parent club Chelsea. Odsonne Edouard, now on loan with Leicester, is similarly ineligible to play Crystal Palace.

And Fraser Forster seems to have been displaced in the Spurs goal by their new Czech arrival Antonin Kinsky.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Kyle Walker is said to have requested a move away from City, so now seems very likely to be dropped (he hasn't been playing well, anyway!).

And people are having doubts about Trent Alexander-Arnold, after his very poor display against Manchester United (although Slot gave him a vote of confidence by making him captain in the Cup on Saturday - and he scored in that one; so, I imagine his FPL owners will mostly remain loyal at least a bit longer). My main concern with him is the possibility of an immediate transfer to Real.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

No particular standouts come to mind from the last round of games, but.... if Manchester United have perhaps now turned a corner under Ruben Amorim, Bruno Fernandes and Amad Diallo become very attractive possibilities for Thursday night's game against Southampton.

Oh, and Bryan Mbeumo! Not just for his predictable demolition of Southampton last time out; he's been on fire again for four or five games now. And Brentford's pacey counter-attacking could maximally exploit City's present defensive weaknesses.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott:

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A little bit of Zen (24)

 

“The true path is not about seeking to know, but rather it is letting go of what we think we know.”

Ryokan Taigu

The trouble with Pep

 

Pep Guardiola is, of course, one of the most innovative and influential coaches the game has ever seen; and - until a few months ago! - pretty much the most successful. But all of that has suddenly changed with City's remarkable meltdown since the end of October.

I am not particularly surprised by this turn of events; well, surprised, perhaps, by its suddenness and its catastrophic severity, but.... the only big surprise for me is not that it's happened, but that it took so long to come around. I think the seeds of Pep's self-destruction have been apparent for a while, and are inherent in the management 'style' that has brought him so much success thus far.

Here, I think, are some of the main reasons for the spectacular collapse we've seen unfold at City:

1)  The adamantine ego. Pep's strength of personality, his massive self-confidence and force of will, are obviously among the key factors in his exceptional success as a modern football manager. But they also evidently make him a rather prickly character, not always easy to get along with. And he has sometimes appeared to be rather petty in his dealings with his players - the very public spat with Yaya Touré being the most conspicuous instance, but surely not the only one. His rather brutal dismissal of Joe Hart (even before he had anyone decent to replace him - Willy Caballero, remember him?!), the protracted sulky controntation with Touré, and the frequent sidelining even of such giants in the team as David Silva, Sergio Aguero, and Vincent Kompany (although there were injury issues etc. behind a lot of that, it did often seem that he was reluctant to make use of them even when they were available) made it appear that he was prima-donna-ishly attempting to set his own stamp on the club by ostentiatiously shunting aside all the core contributors to its previous success. And some of the players who've left City during his reign - notably Leroy Sane and Raheem Sterling - have expressed a dissatisfaction with their treatment by him.

2)  The finicky perfectionism. "Don't let 'perfect' become the enemy of 'good'," a wise old saying goes. And I think this might be Pep's tragic flaw - or one of them. It's another thing that not only may occasionally harm results, but potentially harms his relationships with players... and fans. When you see Liverpool players being interviewed about their time under Klopp, you don't just see professional respect and gratitude towards the man, but something like adulation. When Pep's City players talk about him, there's usually a lot of positive emotion there too - certainly the respect - but it doesn't generally sound quite so warm; and it's often undercut with hints of exasperation at his obsessiveness, his perhaps excessive attention to 'small details'.

3)  The 'over-thinking'. While I wouldn't question the astuteness of Pep's understanding of the game in general, there have clearly been occasions where a compulsion to tinker with his tactical set-up has proven to be unnecessary and detrimental. At least two or three times, an undue 'respect' for the opposition in the latter stages of the Champions League has prompted a drastic change in approach which backfired and led to a premature exit from the competition.

4)  The constant 'evolution'. Now again, this isn't an outright bad thing: it's a good thing.... that can be overdone. The ability and willingness to develop the team's tractical system, to respond to new challenges from rivals and stay continually fresh (and surprising to opponents) is admirable... up to a point. But Pep seems to have been introducing a radical change of approach almost every season, and sometimes even a series of significant tweaks within the course of one season; and this is perhaps a bit too much, a bit too often. It makes it sometimes hard for the team to get settled in a particular system. And, even more importantly, it can make it difficult to recruit appropriate players - if there's an uncertainty about how the team will be playing next year, what kind of profiles they'll be needing. It probably also makes many players reluctant to accept a move to City - my climactic point here, soon - because they realise that, however good they are, they might soon become redundant under Pep's latest scheme. One year he likes attacking full-backs; then he suddenly decides that they're obsolete, and he'd rather play 3 or 4 (or 5?) centre-backs instead; then he thinks full-backs might be OK after all, but he wants them to invert into deep midfield rather than pushing up the flanks; then he decides that maybe he'd like at least one of them to join the attacking line, but more centrally rather than out wide....  It is head-spinning. (These switches of approach have been particularly pronounced in defence; and this is maybe part of the reason why there has been such a revolving door of top international defenders passing across City's books in recent years: Pedro Porro, Angelino, Eric Garcia, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Aymeric Laporte, Joao Cancelo - all unceremoniously shown the door!)

5)  An ultra-conservatism in selection.  While 'Pep Roulette' has become a notorious concept in the world of FPL (the idea that almost any City player is a risky pick because Guardiola's squad rotations can be so frequent and so unpredictable), this distracts us from the deeper truth that in many ways Pep is extremely reluctant to make certain alterations to his team. Most of his changes come in the defensive positions, or among his wide attackers, where he's usually had multiple options; but in other areas, he's often appeared to be afraid of giving key players a rest. OK, we can see that players like Ruben Dias, Rodri, and Kevin DeBruyne are 'irreplaceable' - but you have to try to do without them occasionally, both for the sake of their stamina, and for the harmony of the squad... giving the 'fringe' players enough minutes to keep them happy. Between these two extremes - rotating like crazy in positions where he's got multiple options, and being unwilling to rotate at all in positions where he's got a vital player - many of his squad have sooner or later become disenchanted and sought a move. I mentioned at the end of the point above some of the defenders who've got fed up of him (or he of them...); but there are perhaps even more examples among the attacking players who eventually tired of the limited or erratic minutes he was giving them - Leroy Sane, Riyad Mahrez, Ferran Torres, Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus, Julian Alvarez. This problem is perhaps particularly noticeable in regard to promoting youth team talents to regular starting responsibility. Poor Phil Foden is still being regularly dropped or constantly shunted around different roles (despite having just been 'Player of the Season' last year, when he was mostly able to take the responsibility of the central playmaker, due to DeBruyne's extended absence), and perpetually having to play second-fiddle to DeBruyne whenever he's fit - after 4 or 5 seasons as a more-than-capable understudy, he still hasn't been given the confidence-boost of a regular lead role in the team. And I kind of feel he's been a fool to stay there so long: his career - particularly in the international arena - could probably have blossomed more at another club. The example of fellow Academy graduates like Jadon Sancho, Morgan Rogers, and - most trenchantly - Cole Palmer, who left City for better things, must surely now rankle with him. (And one wonders how long youngsters like Oscar Bobb and Jason McAtee, and even current Pep darling Rico Lewis, will stick around, given this history of being glacially slow to fully integrate younger talents.)

6)  The chronic risk-aversion. While Pep's City have sometimes been quite exciting to watch, it's usually been because of the outsanding individual creativity they have at their disposal, rather than the overall style of play. His relentless stat-crunching, the arid quest for optimum efficiency, the preference for hanging on to the ball (even if you're not going to do much with it!) rather than doing anything that might slightly increase your chance of conceding a turnover.... these things often make for a rather dull and robotic experience for the spectator. And possibly for some of the players too; I suspect that could also be the reason so many attacking players have become disillusioned at City and left in the last few years. (Jack Grealish was the club's most expensive acquistion to date, at a reported fee of £100 million; but he couldn't get a regular start for Pep until he'd learned to be a 'defensive' winger rather than an attacking one! I love Jack, but he is a bear-of-very-little-brain; the move to City was not good for his career, and he should not have taken it.)

7)  That one big gap in his experience. Although Pep's revolutionised the modern game and won all the silverware there is to win.... he hasn't previously had a long tenure at a single club; in fact, he's now been at City for longer than he held his three previous coaching jobs combined. Thus, he's not had to deal much before even with 'succession planning' to replace a few key players, much less with remaking an entire squad over the course of half a decade or a decade. And this is the challenge he's now facing at City. The age balance of the squad is all wrong: DeBruyne is 33 and increasingly injury-prone, Walker and Gundogan are now 34, and appear no longer to have the legs for top-level competition, Bernardo Silva and John Stones are 30, Ake and Akanji will soon be turning 30; there are a lot of great young talents in the squad, but only a few - like Dias and Grealish - are in their 'prime' of mid- to late-20s. Now, player recruitment might be partly - or entirely?? - outside of Pep's control; these days, the Director of Football at a club often takes the lead on transfer trading (it is perhaps not coincidental that City's DoF, Txiki Begiristain, will be stepping down at the end of this season, after more than 12 years in the position). But many of City's acquisitions in recent years have been excessively expensive and ludicrously unfit-for-purpose (Jack Grealish?? Kalvin Phillips??). And the club has signally failed to procure any credible emergency back-up for Rodri or Haaland (they desperately need a 'Plan B' for the next time the big Viking gets injured, beyond trying to play Foden or Silva as a 'false 9'....).

But wait, does all of this tie together into some over-arching flaw in Pep's Manchester City? Yes, I think it does. 

The tactical aridity and the apparent distrust of attacking flair (too 'risky'!); the often thorny relationships with some players; the frequent reluctance to give regular starts to younger players (or players new to the club); the numerous seismic shifts in the tactical formation; the over-frequent rotation in some positions and complete lack of it in others; the large number of dissatisfied players leaving the club - these factors all contribute to Manchester City not being such an attractive destination as you'd expect it to be.... with its unique record of success in the English game and internationally, its revered and peerlessly innovative coach, and its near-bottomless coffers. Some players just don't want to go there, because they see how difficult it can be to get in the team, to stay in the team.... or to play the kind of football they enjoy playing, to 'play their own game' in this team. (You think Lamine Yamal or Nico Williams or Jamal Musiala would ever consider a move to City?? No way!!! Not if they have any sense, anyway.)

And the core failing I see in all of this is.... an exclusive focus on one-game-at-a-time, rather than the medium- or long-term good of the squad and the club. It seems to me that Pep is so afraid of failure in any single game that he can't bring himself to contemplate playing a 'non-ideal' eleven.... or a 'non-ideal' (in his view) formation and gameplan. Even if DeBruyne, in his dotage, is still better than Foden, you need to rest him more often - to get the best out of Foden, and encourage other young players coming up through your youth ranks. And you might have more chance of capturing a good alternate for Rodri if you showed a willingness to occasionally play a double-pivot - allowing both to play alongside each other - even if that's not your conception of an ideal system for this next game. Damn, yes, sometimes you have to be willing to put out a slightly 'weaker' side or utilise a slightly 'weaker' system for the long-term good of the squad. Pep has never done this; and so the City recruitment team have found it difficult/impossible to attract the new players they need for cover and rebuilding. And 'suddenly'.... everything's falling apart. Suddenly?? No, it's been a long time coming.

Oh, and there is one other Premier League manager who seems to me to demonstrate almost all of these same qualities! Unsurprisingly.... it is Pep's 'Mini-Me', Snr Arteta. Last summer's transfer window, when four fantastic young back-up players all quit in a huff, and the club was unable to land any of the big names it was after (well, not the crucial ones, anyway: I think Calafiori will prove to have been a good acquisition, but he didn't seem all that essential), was a disaster for Arsenal, leaving them with a significantly weaker squad than they had last season. And why did that happen, Mikel?

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott:

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Luck-o-Meter (20)

Well, I suppose the first big element of 'LUCK' affecting this gameweek was the panic over Friday and Saturday about a slew of 'bad weather' postponements being likely/possible. That would have had a HUGE impact if it had come to pass, but... it seems we've dodged that bullet.

A few debatable calls in the Spurs v Newcastle game - but I think an increasingly beleaguered Postecoglou is clutching at straws if he's really claiming they all went wrongly against Spurs... or that that would have made any difference anyway, when they were so comprehensively outplayed for most of the game. The handball claim against Joelinton just before Isak's equaliser was rightly dismissed by VAR: Bergvall fired the ball straight at him from a few yards away, his arm was innocently by his side, and he did try to pull the hand away from the contact - it was unfortunate for Spurs that the ball deflected so conveniently into Guimaraes' path, but there was nothing culpable about that. There was even less in the claim against Dan Burn on the half-way line (and the Spurs players didn't seem to make much of it - even though it would have been a second yellow-card for him, early in the game): he was initially spreading his arms out wide (presumably to distract the Spurs player on the ball, to limit his view, or perhaps his future path of movement - but a silly and dangerous thing to do, when he might try to play the ball past you), but then he pulled them back to his side and turned slightly away as the ball was hit at him; and, even more crucially, it hit the middle of his upper-arm - which is an allowed area to control the ball with anyway under the adapted rules; so, nothing in that one. With Joelinton's forearm in the back of Bergvall's head - well, it looked accidental, as if he just bumped into him because he slipped and lost his footing at that moment; there was a suspicion of the accidentally-on-purpose about it, but... again, none of the Spurs players really complained that much; and a red card would have been very harsh, I think. Set against these empty claims, we had Kulusevski's shoulder-charging Anthony Gordon in the face (and breaking his nose, by the look of it), in the penalty area. Again, it might have been an 'accidental' collision, but to me there looked to be more intent about it than there had been with the earlier Joelinton incident; and when there's a penalty at stake, we often see a kick awarded for such a consequential impact, regardless of 'intent'. So, actually, Ange - you got off lightly. (I suspect the big man might be looking for a new job soon. This kind of self-pitying whingeing about imagined injustices carries a whiff of despair about it.)

Villa and Leicester really both looked like sides that wouldn't trouble anyone in the top half of the table here, and the home team were somewhat lucky to come away with the win, after sloppy play from Justin gifted them the chance of a late winner. If Mavididi hadn't blazed the best chance of the game wide early in the second half, the result might have been different. Again, no refereeing controversies here: Bailey's falling-over in the box for a penalty claim looked extremely optimistic, not to say delusional - rightly ignored. Barkley's clean, low drive from a few yards outside the box to take the lead was the only outstanding moment in a pretty dull game.

Bournemouth clearly should have had a penalty when Mangala kicked Ouattara in the midriff; accidental or not, you can't kick someone like that in the penalty area! This seemed to be another instance where VAR just didn't want to call their on-pitch colleague a 'clear and obvious' idiot. The home side completely dominated the game, but were struggling to break down Everton's typically dogged defence - until Huijsen, Semenyo, Kerkez and Brooks conjured a superb team move that might be one of the leading 'Goal of the Season' contenders.

Chelsea's miserable luck with penalties continued at Palace: apparently VAR thought Tyrick Mitchell got 'something' of the ball when wiping out Neto on the edge of his box late in the game - he didn't. And it shouldn't make any difference anyway; you can't just kick a player's feet out from under him, and claim you got a toe on the ball as a defence. The number of stone-cold penalties Chelsea have been denied this season is just getting ridiculous now: Palmer could probably have been above 200 points already, if our referees knew what they were doing! The sublime Sancho-Palmer link-up for the opening goal was the only high point in yet another dour, uninspiring match. Chelsea, still strangely misfiring all around, were not able to capitalise on this early breakthrough, and eventually paid the price when Palace came back into the game in the closing phase, and nicked an equaliser through Mateta. The FPL 'sheep' are despairing of Nicolas Jackson; but I think he's still looking quite sharp, and will be getting back among the goals any day now.

West Ham actually gave a very good account of themselves at the Etihad, and if Kudus and Soucek had been able to convert their very good early chances, the game might have panned out very differently (even Pep admitted as much in his post match interviews, acknowledging that City had still been quite poor in this game, and were lucky not to go behind). The major turning-point, and the major injustice, was the referee's dreadful decision to call back Summerville for a non-foul when he was clean through on goal (Ake had simply fallen over, and left the ball free for the West Ham striker to steal). And they were then desperately unlucky to fall behind to a huge deflection off Coufal beyond his keeper. The Hammers unfortunately lost their way for a while either side of half-time, but also finished quite strongly - with the lively Summerville missing another good chance near the end, after Fullkrug had already notched a consolation goal; and then, just moments later, Paqueta's improvised shot beat Ortega and grazed the outside of the far post. The Haaland faithful are, of course, crowing about the big Norwegian's 'return to form'; but I don't think there's ever been anything much wrong with his form - it's the rest of the team that's been useless. And they still are: the City defence looked worse than West Ham's in this game.

There didn't appear to be any controversy in Brentford's comfortable win at Southampton: van den Berg's goal from a corner was rightly disallowed for a bit of wrestling on the edge of the six-yard box. The only big surprise, really, was Wissa blazing the best chance of game miles over the top. But Brentford still ended up with 5, thanks to a late flurry. Southampton, of course, will be in the Championship again next year. Can they at least rally enough to cause an occasional problem to some opponents? Even that's looking doubtful.

Brighton's penalty against Arsenal was, I felt, a bit soft: one of those where both players were going for the ball, and there was an accidental, mutual contact in the follow-through. It always looks worse when it's head-to-head contact, but really, Joao Pedro was moving towards Saliba more than vice versa - seen them given, seen them not given (maybe it's a karmic balancing-up, because Joao Pedro was himself the victim of such a bad decision the other way in the previous game). The only other big surprise of a drab stalemate of a game was Arsenal conjuring a free header from one of their trademark set-pieces in the closing minute - but it falling to Partey rather than Gabriel, and him not being able to get it on target. Arsenal were probably keeping something in reserve, ahead of the Cup semi-final against Newcastle on Tuesday; but they seem to be misfiring a bit at the moment. Credit, though, to Hurzeler, for revamping Brighton's formation at half-time, and getting them into the game more after the break.

The major talking point at Craven Cottage was whether Leif Davis should have got an early red card for 'denial of a goal-scoring opportunity' when tripping Harry Wilson. It was a very tight call, which might have gone either way; but I don't like to see players sent off like that - unless it's a really egregious offence, rugby-tackling an attacker to the floor when they're obviously clean through.... The contact here was nearly 30 yards out (and really, it might have been clumsy/accidental rather than deliberate: Davis realised he wasn't going to be able to put in a challenge for the ball and pulled out of that, but was moving towards the opponent too fast to avoid running into his trailing leg...), Wison isn't super-quick, and there were three other Ipswich defenders more or less in line with him and tracking back quickly, one in the centre who would probably have been close enough to put in a block on any attempted shot; so.... a fair enough call, I think. And VAR, for once, was actually doing its job in this game. I think we can forgive the referee for initially missing the foul on Wilson for the equalising penalty: he had tripped over his own feet, and went down rather spectacularly - Morsy's very slight contact on his left calf before this was hard to see. But the 'second look' came to Fulham's rescue. (Wilson was extremely fortunate not to get a yellow card, or worse, for his excessive reaction in the referee's face about the initial decision....)  Ipswich's penalty a little later was even softer - but again a correct decision: Castagne had landed a light kick on Delap's boot as he swished at the ball, and that's enough. Particularly heart-breaking for Ipswich that Jack Clarke's fierce drive had come back off the post only 30 seconds before they conceded a second penalty; they really seemed to have done enough to deserve the win, against a very lacklustre Fulham. There were two oustanding saves in this game, Walton's low reaction stop from Raul's header early on, and Leno going at full stretch to get a hand to Broadhead's thumping drive in the second half. Not that much else all that exciting in the play from either side, though, either in attack or defence.

An aside: Ipswich describe their away strip this year as 'maroon' - but it's nowhere near that (at least, not on TV pictures); obviously more of a cerise. I suppose it's nice to have such a unique strip; and it would probably be very helpful when playing in fog or snow.... But I do find it a bit painful on the eyes, I must say.

The biggest surprise about the week's biggest game was that it went ahead at all - with heroic efforts needed from the Anfield ground staff to clear a reported 2-foot deep covering of snow from the pitch in the last few hours before kick-off. However, recently dismal Manchester United dramatically getting their shit together and proving to be the better team was, for some, perhaps even more of a surprise! Liverpool had their 'feet of clay' moment here: they weren't terrible, but it was a strangely flat performance from them, they didn't seem able to respond to the unexpected vigour and self-belief manifested by their visitors; and Trent Alexander-Arnold, perhaps distracted by his Spanish lessons, appeared to be playing in slow-motion.... Salah had a fairly quiet game; and Onana very nearly saved his penalty! Mercifully, the refereeing was pretty good here: Michael Oliver somehow missed the De Ligt handball initially, but revised his decision after visiting the pitchside monitor. (United fans will feel it was harsh, as the ball flicked towards him from Macallister's head at very close range; but his arm was already raised unnaturally high - and he then raised it even higher, towards the ball, as if making an instinctive movement to swat it away: no question about it being a penalty.) The major unexpected element of the match was Lisandro Martinez's tremendous opening goal - a ripper from a tight angle out on the left, reminiscent of Michael Keane's surprising 'Goal of the Month' earlier this season. Well, that and.... United contriving a great chance on the edge of the six-yard box in the closing seconds of the game which might have let them snatch an historic victory - but it was somehow Harry Maguire waiting in the space for the cutback, and he predictably shanked his effort miles over the bar. Oh well....

And Forest go from strength to strength, racking up yet another win - their sixth in a row?!- against Wolves on Monday night. To be fair, Wolves did occasionally look dangerous going forward, and might have got something out of the game, but for a goal-line block by Murillo and a couple of sharp saves from Sels. No refereeing snafus in this one, by the looks of it - a good way to end the gameweek.

So, Bournemouth and Chelsea (the year's unluckiest sides thus far!!) were denied clear penalties, but Brighton got one they probably shouldn't have: Leif Davis was very lucky to escape a red card, the ref denied Crysencio Summerville a 'clear goal-scoring opportunity' with a ridiculous intervention at The Etihad, and there were perhaps a few questionable decisions at Spurs.... But no goals wrongly disallowed, and no stupidly tight, possibly wrong offside decisions for once! By the abysmally low standards we have come to expect of PGMOL this season, this week was actually not at all bad for refereeing.

The 'Team of the Week' doesn't hold too many surprises either: Barkley, Van den Berg, Macallister, and Savinho are somewhat unusual inclusions in that list - not nearly so many, nor nearly so wacky as many of the collections of players that has produced in the first half of the season. Palace and Brighton managing draws against Chelsea and Arsenal, and perhaps United achieving the same at Liverpool, were modestly 'unexpected' results, but hardly bookie-breaking turn-ups. However, there was enough variety - enough of a mix of expectedness and unexpectedness - in this week's returns that there was an unusually broad spread of FPL manager scores: in my national league (quite an easy one to monitor closely, because there are only 700 or so players - but it's very competitive at the top end), there were an awful lot of disappointing 30s and 40s from people who usually get well above the global average. I think that just about gets us to 5 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter for this week.

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott:

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

The Cunha ban - WHAT??

 

One of the biggest ongoing uncertainties in FPL over the past couple of weeks, and one of the biggest impacts of 'luck' in the game's points returns in that time, has been the FA's failure to promptly ban Wolves's Matheus Cunha for his assault on a 'civilian' after the GW16 home match against Ipswich on 14th December.

It might reasonably have been expected that disciplinary proceedings could have been concluded swiftly, in such a clearcut and obviously ucontestable case, and that Cunha would have been banned before the next match - and banned for a long time. But in fact, he was most unexpectedly - and unjustly - allowed to play the next match, after all; and the next one, and the next one after that too. And after this needless two-week delay, he then only received a bafflingly token sentence! WTF???

It would have been quite reasonable, if you owned Cunha, to ditch him immediately after GW16, anticipating a long period of unavailability - and a sharp drop in his FPL price from a big general sell-off. Those who trusted to blind optimism or dumb luck in clinging on to him (for, they hoped/expected, probably one more gameweek at best), actually got three more starts out of him - in the first two of which he racked up a very handy total of 21 points! That massive return was, of course, greatly helped by the abrupt dismissal of floundering manager Gary O'Neill, and a strong and immediate 'new manager bounce' under his replacement, Vitor Pereira. FPL owners who retained Cunha, in defiance of reasonable expectations, were extravagantly rewarded for the huge - and frankly illogical - risk they took on this. And I confess, that rankles with me.

The FA really do appear to have been bending over backwards to be as nice as possible to Wolves and Cunha in this matter. They waited to issue their ban until after Cunha had been able to contribute in the Leicester and Manchester United games in GWs 17 and 18 - the only two reasonably winnable fixtures they had left before a fairly horrific two-month run of over-matched games; Cunha's absence for any or all of the succeeding games would be unlikely to have made that much of a difference to Wolves's results. They only finally imposed the ban when he'd just picked up a potentially serious injury which would probably have kept him out of following games anyway. And they gave him only a ridiculously brief two-game suspension - immediately before the FA Cup Third Round, which would count as one of the two, meaning that he would only have to miss ONE Premier League game... for his violent assault on a member of the public??

I really do not understand that sentence at all. If the referee had shown him a red card for the incident, he would have had that much of a ban - immediately and automatically. If he'd got involved in a shoving match like that with another player, he would have received a minimum 3-game 'violent conduct' ban - and we sometimes see longer bans given, for still relatively mild altercations between players.

We understand that players may succumb to a 'red mist' at times in the heat of the game, and behave inappropriately towards opposing players (or even, sometimes, members of their own team!). But anyone else - whether officials, coaching staff, or spectators - has to be regarded as sacrosanct, untouchable. And any violation against someone like that really demands emphatic, exemplary punishment.

Cunha was caught on TV cameras arguing with a middle-aged man, who was apparently part of the Ipswich 'staff' in some capacity, on pitch immediately after the game. He struck the guy from behind, quite hard, on the back of the head with the point of his elbow/upper forearm. Then he moved around in front of him and shoved him quite roughly in the face, then grabbed his glasses, pulled them off his face, and seemed to throw them to the ground. 

Quite apart from the special dynamic that this guy is not a player, but a 'member of the public', the violence of the assault, its apparent unprovokedness, the power imbalance (very strong young athletic guy attacking an overweight middle-aged man), the extreme intrusiveness/transgressiveness of the actions (contact with the head and face, deliberately impairing the man's vision by stealing - and perhaps permanently damaging? - his eyesight aids) - all this would probably elevate it into the category of an 'aggravated assault' in UK criminal law; the substantial physical element to it certainly makes it 'assault and battery' rather than simply 'assault' (which can consist just of threatening behaviour or abusive language).. [And frankly, I am surprised that criminal charges have not been brought in connection with this incident. Perhaps they still might be.]

The only comparable incidents I can recall in the English game are Eric Cantona's notorious 'kung fu kick' back in 1995, for which he was excluded from the game for 8 months; and Paolo di Canio's shoving a referee after being sent off a few years later, which earned him an 11-match ban. 

Cantona's attack was, of course, especially flamboyant and theatrical, like everything else about him. But he didn't actually land the kick; and I'm fairly sure he knew he wasn't going to - he was just making an angry gesture. The extreme transgressiveness of showing violence towards a fan, and actually trying to get into the spectators' area to commit such violence, resulted in the unprecedently severe penalty. But honestly, in terms of the actual content of the action - what he did to the victim - I don't think this was as bad as the Cunha assault. They're certainly in much the same ballpark. And the di Canio event was far more trivial; the contact was actually pretty minimal, and the referee was later roundly mocked by all and sundry for making such a meal of it - he basically got his studs caught in the turf, lost balance, and staggered backwards a number of steps before falling on his backside; but the force of the push really hadn't warranted that at all. Di Canio's offence was a fleeting impulse of petulance, which could not conceivably have caused any significant harm - other than to the referee's dignity. Whereas Cunha indulged in a sustained and very calculatedly physical confrontation with his unfortunate victim; it was many times worse than what di Canio had done.

Thus, I - and many other people - had expected a penalty in this case in a range of 8-12 games banned - perhaps with a token 2 or 3 games being remitted from that on appeal. But a de facto ban of just 1 game??  That was outrageous.  The FA appears to be 'sending the message' that it is actually perfectly OK for footballers to assault 'civilians' on the pitch after a game; that this is no more serious a misdeed, in fact rather less serious, than a clumsy tackle executed during the course of a match.

No details of the decision appear to have been released yet. I wonder if there was some major mitigating factor, which they are suppressing to protect the victim's reputation - some dreadful racist or homphobic slur, presumably, which might have been deemed an extreme provocation? But I really can't imagine any provocation that would mitigate the offence to that extent; he should have been banned for 2 to 3 months,..... and he got off with 1 game???!!!  We need to know WHY.

We really need some urgent changes to be made to how the FA handles cases like this - for greater certainty in the game of FPL, and for the protection of the public in the real world.

We need to see:

1)  Clear sentencing guidelines published, so that we can know what to expect for various categories of offence, rather than, as now, sentencing appearing to be entirely discretionary - and thus wildly inconsistent.

2) Protocols introduced for the prompt resolution of cases. If decisions cannot be reached immediately after a hearing (and, in this case, where no defence was offered, and the evidence was absolutely clearcut, it's difficult to see why this was not possible), a date for decision and sentencing should be given.

3) Protocols also need to be introduced covering when bans are announced and go into force. It is obviously unsatisfactory that a ban should be imposed when a player is already injured and unable to play.

4)  The publication of a detailed rationale for the decision in the Cunha case - so that we can understand what the hell just happened here!

Sorry, but I used to be a lawyer. Injustice bothers me. Procedural imprecision and inconsistency bother me.