A little bit of Zen (29)

 

"All 'love' is a form of delusion. But it's a good delusion to have."

GW

We do LOVE our FPL don't we? Even though she treats us meanly most of the time....

Return of THE CULT??

 

Early in the season, I bemoaned how the FPL 'Sheep' had been ridiculously over-enthusiastic about Aston Villa and their players, with picks like Konsa, Martinez, and Duran, in particular, being owned in numbers that were completely counter-rational. (Morgan Rogers you could at least make some sort of case for; but - strong admirer though I am of his talent - I've always felt that his attacking contributions in the Premier League have been too intermittent to justify his FPL selection...)  I described this phenomenon humorously as a 'Cult'!! 

And sure enough, Villa this season have been a pale shadow of the over-performers we marvelled at last year. 

Well, they weren't able to bring in any new talent over the summer, to strengthen their squad depth ahead of their first Champions League campaign (it didn't even exist the last time they qualifed for the senior Eutopean competition in their early '80s glory days; it was still the European Cup) - apart from Ian Maatsen (who's barely earned a game for them) and Rogers (who can't really carry the side on his own, although he tries); while they lost one of their most influential players, midfield stalwart and penalty-taker Douglas Luiz, to Juventus. And in this latest window, they've let go two of their most talented players, Emi Buendia (who'd barely been given a start since returning from a long injury) and Jhon Duran. Also, almost all of their defenders seem to be perpetually injured. And even World Cup-winning goalkeeper Emi Martinez has recently started occasionally looking a bit wonky....  

Teams almost invariably flounder a bit with their first season in European commpetition, failing to adapt to the disruption of usual preparation routines caused by regular midweek football, and lacking the squad depth to rotate enough to cope with the additional toll of injuries and fatigue. That phenomenon has hit particularly hard with Villa this year. They appear to have been saving their best efforts for their Champions League games; but their form in the League has been very up-and-down - and, over the past couple of months, just downright poor.... and recently getting worse. The only reason they're still in the top half of the table, just, is that so many teams who should by rights be above them - Brighton, Brentford, Spurs, Manchester United: perhaps even Everton and Wolves - have also been having a dreadful time for much of the season.

And now - they're without almost all of their preferred starters in defence (Konsa, Pau Torres, Mings, Cash) going into Gameweek 25. And their star striker Ollie Watkins has only just tentatively re-entered training after nearly two weeks out with a worrying hamstring strain.

So,.... no-one with any sense would touch any Aston Villa 'asset' with a bargepole at the moment....

And yet....  Villa players have been some of the most transferred-in over the past two weeks, and their coach Unai Emery is perhaps the leading pick to bet the 'Assistant Manager' chip on this week!

It's purely the mystical allure of the Double Gameweek, of course. The naive assume that having two games must automatically ensure a higher points return. But it does nothing of the kind; the returns are fixture-dependent - and if the fixtures in a double aren't good, plenty of Single Gameweek alternatives will out-perform the doublers.

Villa's GW25 is effectively a 'Single Gameweek', because you can't realistically expect them to get anything against Liverpool - even playing at home, even against a very sub-par Liverpool (and there's no reason to suppose there's anything too wrong with Liverpool's form, just because they unluckily dropped points to a freak late goal in an even more-emtionally-charged-than-usual Merseyside derby last night). And Ipswich - greatly strengthened in the transfer window, and fighting for their Premier League survival - probably won't be a pushover either... not for a team struggling as badly as Villa have been lately.

I think Emery is unlikely to reach 10 points for the 'Assistant Manager' chip this week; and might not reach 5!

Meanwhile, Marco Silva, Vitor Pereira, and - yes - Ipswich's Kieran McKenna have an opportunity to earn the hugely lucrative table-bonus for getting something out of a game against a higher-ranked opponent. The most promising option on that front, though, must surely be Brighton's Fabian Hurzeler - who hosts a recently very flakey-looking Chelsea (who've just lost their star centre-forward to a hamstring injury) on Friday evening: he actually looks to have decent prospects of a table-bonus win, rather than just a very hopeful and speculative chance of a draw....

I don't even want to play this damned new chip, though; I think it ruins the game. I am taking the high road on this by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season. Please consider joining my Boycott.  Or, if exiting the game altogether is too much for you, at least think about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip - and criticise and complain about it online as much as possible.

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Know what you're talking about when you talk of 'risk'

 

"Fortune favours the brave, sometimes; but the foolish, almost never."

GW

It is good to sometimes embrace risk in playing FPL. 

Unforuntately, very few people have any idea how to assess risk. Among the FPL hordes online, I can regularly distinguish two kinds of 'risk': the calculated risk, and the uncalculated risk.

I like to characterise these different types of risk-taking as 'wise gambling'...... and 'foot-shooting'.

Please don't fall victim to the latter!

The OTHER football...

 

I confess to a lifelong weakness for the US interpretation of 'football'. It lacks the artistic grace of the true game, but there is a certain brutal logic to its gameplay which I do find quite compelling. (And it is undeniably tailor-made for watching at home on TV, with its short, intensive bursts of action regularly punctuated by long breaks to allow you to visit the fridge... or the toilet... and even to put together a snack from time to time...)

I became hooked as a youngster back in the late '70s and early '80s; and it soon became an annual ritual of mine to stay up until the wee small hours of Monday morning enjoying the season's climax in the Super Bowl (ah, those were the days when I could still function, sort of, on only 3 or 4 hours' sleep!). Since I moved out to East Asia nearly a quarter of a century ago, I have found the timezone much more congenial for watching the season finale (though finding television coverage, often much more of a challenge!), and my ritual has evolved into embracing the pretext for a once-a-year-indulgence in getting drunk at breakfast time. (I have been mostly a freelancer, so can set my own working schedule. And even in those infrequent spells when I have had some kind of straight job, the Bowl usually conveniently coincides with the Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations - so I've had days off anyway. Oh joy!)

Young Patrick Mahomes has already established himself alongside some of the historic greats like Joe Montana and Peyton Manning, and looks like he might one day start putting the ridiculous records of Tom Brady under pressure. Seeing if he can record another win is worth getting up at 6 in the morning for!!  And my fridge is well-stocked with beer...

A little bit of Zen (28)

 

"Experience is worth nothing if you don't learn the right lessons from it. One moment of insight can be more valuable than a lifetime's experience."

GW

'Picks of the Week' - the new transfers

This is not one of my usual 'Picks of the Week' posts (since I wouldn't necessarily recommend getting any of these players in for FPL - certainly not before we've seen them play for their new teams.... and possibly not ever), but just a few quick observations on what strike me as the most potentially interesting new acquisitions during the just-closed January transfer window.

I already mentioned a couple of weeks back that I thought the pacey Dutch winger Donyell Malen could be a promising addition for Aston Villa, but... his goalscoring seems to have gone off the boil rather with Dortmund this season (not that he's ever been that prolific). And with Jacob Ramsey, Leon Bailey, and Morgan Rogers having been in such good form so far this season, it's difficult to see how he'll find a regular starting place there.

Egyptian forward Omar Marmoush quickly won a lot of attention among the ranks of FPL managers (with his ownership well over 300k already - which seems likely to soon drive his price up a notch, from its not-very-generous opening point of 7.0). Yes, he's very quick, very versatile, has a lot of skills; it looks like his dead-ball delivery could be a handy asset for City. But he's not been a particularly prolific scorer in his career so far (he had quite a good season with Frankfurt last year, and a very good start to this one - but in his younger years, he'd scarcely found the net at all). And I am somewhat surprised that Pep has introduced him to the starting line-up immediately (a 'sign of desperation', some might say...). But City are really still not looking very good. And since Pep will usually only be using 2 players - at most 3 - from Foden, Savinho, Grealish, Doku, Silva, and Bobb (and perhaps Jason McAtee, and maybe even Rico Lewis too), it's very difficult see him being all that high up the list of priorities once everyone's fit again; and even if he is, he's bound to be at least an occasional victim of the notorious 'Pep Roulette'.

Ben Chilwell is a player I've always liked - both in the real world, and as a Fantasy pick - so I'm glad to see him finally escape from Chelsea, to hopefully get a chance to shine again with Palace. But of course, injuries have been a big problem for him in recent years, and he hasn't really played an extended spell of first-team football in four years or more now - so, it might be a bit doubtful if he'll immediately become a starter. And with Tyrick Mitchell already being a very capable left-back for them, and part of a nicely settled back-five, I fear he might just have been acquired as emergency back-up, destined to rarely get a full run-out there. But maybe, just maybe there is a chance that Oliver Glasner envisages making use of him as an outright winger - or perhaps even a creative central midfielder; in which case, he might get in the starting team quite regularly, and might then just possibly enjoy the opportunity to start returning significant FPL points.

Probably the most impressive - and potentially transformative - eve-of-deadline capture was United's sealing of the deal to bring the powerful Danish attacking left-back Patrick Dorgu in from Lecce. They probably needed a new striker and a new central midfielder even more, but they'll have to make the best of what they could get. And Dorgu is, I think, very likely to quickly become a regular starter in the wingback role, probably on his preferred left side. This should give United much more incisive attacking options down that flank; and it would have the additional benefits of allowing Dalot to be swapped over to the right (where, I think, he looks much more comfortable), and Mazraoui to be permanently moved into the back-three (a switch that is all the more needful now that Lisandro Martinez looks to have torn his ACL).

City fans will be hoping that Nico Gonzalez might catalyse an even bigger shake-up for them. At Porto, he has, I believe, mostly been a more progressive sort of midfielder, more of a box-to-box player; but he has a formidable engine and covers the ground very well - so, there is some reason to hope that he can plug some of that huge defensive hole in the middle of the park that Rodri's absence has created for them. He can't be any worse than Kovacic and Gundogan and Silva in that role, anyway....  But I'm doubtful about how far he can fix City's problems on his own.

I suppose I have to mention Marcus Rashford, as this seems to be the move fans have been getting most excited about online. However, as with Malen, I don't really see how he'll fit into the Villa set-up. He's at his best coming in off the left wing to join in attacks; but they already have Rogers and Ramsey (and potentially Malen too) who can do that for them. So, it's more likely he's just going to be used as occasional relief for Ollie Watkins, now that Jhon Duran has taken the Saudi money. And, given that he's hardly played any football this season (and hasn't played well in a season-and-a-half....), I fear it could take him quite a while to get back to full match-sharpness - which would mean that he might be of limited use in deputising for Watkins immediately, if the apparent hamstring strain he suffered at the weekend is likely to keep him out for a few weeks. Indeed, I suspect that if Watkins is unavailable now, Emery might prefer to go with Rogers as a kind of 'false 9' rather than taking a risk on the notoriously flakey and inconsistent Rashford.

A more intriguing prospect, I think, is goalkeeper Alex Palmer, who's just been lured away from West Bromwich Albion by Ipswich. He's looked the best goalkeeper in the Championship for the past couple of seasons. And given what a liability Ari Muric has become this season, and that alternate Christian Walton looks set to be out for a while with a serious muscle injury, Kieran McKenna must surely be intending to make him the default No. 1 straight away. He hasn't been priced in FPL yet, but if he comes in at 4.0, he'd be a very tempting back-up pick. Even at the more likely 4.5, he might possibly get into the conversation. And I have a suspicion that he could prove to be the difference-maker that helps Ipswich stay up. (Although I think the acquisitions of Enciso, Philogene, and Godfrey could have a positive impact too - and these are certainly an encouraging 'statement of intent' from the Ipswich owners that they're determined to make a good fight of it. I don't get that feeling with Southampton or Leicester. And I'm still a bit undecided about Wolves...)

I feel a definite frisson of excitement about Evan Ferguson's loan move to West Ham as well. His development has been derailed by a string of injuries over the past couple of seasons, but he is one of the best young strikers I've seen emerge in the English game for many, many years: big, strong, quite quick, excellent touch, calm under pressure, full range of finishing - pretty much a complete forward. He's worked under Graham Potter before at Brighton; so, hopefully there's a good personal relationship there that could help him to rebuild confidence (if he's lost any; he hasn't struck me as the type of guy to be much troubled by mental demons). And with Fullkrug perpetually injured and Antonio out for the season, there does seem to be a good chance that he might become a regular starter as the No. 9. However, Potter, as we know, is a compulsive tinkerer, and he has been tempted to try out Mohammed Kudus and Lucas Paqueta as 'false 9s' in the absence of any recognised striker being available for him recently. And Jarrod Bowen can play as a central striker too; though he's much better coming in off the wing. Priced at only 5.5 million, I think there's a fair chance that Ferguson might become the top budget forward pick in the latter part of the season, if he starts regularly and can stay fit.

But the big news of this window for me is Tottenham's loan signing of the 19-year-old French forward Mathys Tel. Yes, he's very young, very inexperienced, and hasn't yet established a prolific scoring record... hasn't found the net at all yet this season; however, given that almost all of his appearances for Bayern have been off the bench, his 16 goals over the previous two seasons have come from a fairly small number of minutes - and some of them have been quite breathtaking. The kid is a sensational talent. He can play off the wing or through the middle, so there are a number of ways he could get into the side. However, even with Solanke ruled out for another month or so, Spurs do have quite an abundance of attacking talent at their disposal: Son, Johnson, Richarlison, Kulusevski, Maddison, and young Mikey Moore. So, I fear he might get limited minutes, be used - initially at least - mainly as an impact sub. But I think it's very possible that he might have enough of an impact to graduate before long to a regular start.  [I'm glad to see my mate Adam Clery over at FourFourTwo agrees with me about this lad's prospects.]

So.... not the busiest transfer window, by a long way; but it did - belatedly - throw up some intriguing new FPL possibilities.

The biggest news, though, is surely Arsenal - being 'linked' with some big names, like Zubimendi and Gyokeres (again), and Osimhen and Sesko,..... and just about every decent forward in the Premier League.... and failing to land anyone. Oh dear.

Luck-o-Meter (24)

 

Dear, oh dear - it's obviously going to be Liverpool's title this year, isn't it? I like Slot's side; but it does annoy me when I see them getting results from games which they really don't deserve, when they have to rely on everything breaking against the opponents and the referee making every single call in their favour. This gives me an uncomfortable presntiment that this is going to be a particularly atrocious week for the quality of officiating.

Nottingham Forest bounced back in style from last week's surprise defeat at Bournemouth, handing out a drubbing themselves to a lacklustre Brighton. They might easily have had a lot more than their final tally of 7, with Wood in particular missing some excellent chances early on, appearing to shy away from rather than stretch towards a fizzed ball across the goalmouth from Elanga after a quarter of an hour, and having the ball nicked off his toe by a great recovery tackle from Minteh moments later, when the goal had seemed about to be at his mercy. There were a number of other near-misses too, with Neco Williams especially unlucky to see his fierce low shot from distance scud off the outside of the post. Wood's hattrick is a hard blow to all of those who sacrificed him in FPL this week to bring in Gakpo - or Ndiaye - for the Double Gameweek. It added insult to injury for Hurzeler and his team that goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen somehow passed the ball straight to Forest substitute Jota Silva, gifting him a seventh goal at the start of added-on time.

It's hard to divine just why Brighton are so bad at the moment, but.... they're heading towards the bottom end of the table fast. To be fair, though, Brighton did have a number of good chances themselves in the first half, and perhaps the game might have developed differently if one or two of those had worked out; Welbeck was very unlucky that his 'Geoff Hurst goal' crashed off the underside of the bar and bounced back into play having only crossed 80% or 90% of the goal-line - though Sels's very slight fingertip touch on the effort was probably just enough to divert it on to the crossbar rather than going straight in (presumably one of the 6 saves he was credited with in the game). The only bothersome piece of officiating in this one was the inordinate amount of time it took to adjudicate a 'possible offside' on Wood's first goal - though he was actually well on, by nearly half a yard, which was fairly evident to the naked eye... but VAR has to go through its whole rigmarole for every decision, and it seems there was some kind of technical hold-up with 'drawing the lines' in this instance?? Oh dear. Well, Hurzeler seemed to think Brighton deserved a penalty when the back of Welbeck's head clashed with Milenkovic's face inside the box during the later part of the first-half, but he was the only person in the ground to believe that (well, apart from Sky's commentator??); it was quite obviously an accidental collision - if anything, the contact was initiated by Welbeck himself, backing into the defender. Brighton had much more of a case to object to Forest's sixth goal, when Neco Williams lashed the loose ball home from 8 yards out, after it had briefly touched both of Sangare's arms as he'd fallen on top of it. This is what I would call a 'victory for common sense', as the Forest player was clearly trying to pull his arms out of the way of the ball, and the contacts were very light and fleeting and had absolutely no material impact at all; the 'handball' was not deliberate and had no effect on the play. However, under the current rules, it plainly was a 'handball' - in the lead-up to a goal, no leeway is supposed to be allowed to such factors; so, Brighton can feel a bit aggrieved about that one. (They're probably a bit miffed about the penalty decision against Lamptey too - but you really can't wrap both of your arms around a player to try to restrict his movement prior to a corner.)  The Brighton manager got himself booked for his excessive protestations about the Welbeck clash of heads, but at least he was decent enough not to whinge about any of these incidents in his press interviews afterwards.

Bournemouth were desperately unlucky not to get at least a draw out of their home clash against League leaders Liverpool: they were much the better side for most of the match. Alisson had to make a number of sharp saves in the game, including a superb reaction stop to keep out a near-post deflection off one of his own defenders in the dying minutes. Antoine Semenyo smashed a ferocious early effort against the crossbar. Then David Brooks's superb half-volley finish that would have equalised before half-time was - after another interminable VAR delay - ruled out for Kerkez having apparently been 'offside' by about half a boot when he broke down the flank to supply the cutback (a very harsh call: one of those that is too close to adjudicate with the naked eye, and which, when done with video playback, depends inordinately on exactly which freeze-frame you choose to look at.... and how much motion-blur there is on it; I've said many times before that offside decisions should not be made on such tight margins - it's completely unrealistic to expect that they can be accurate and authoritiative, with the current state of technology available). Alexander-Arnold - who once again had a bit of a dog of a game - was very lucky to get away with stretching out his arm in an apparent attempt to control Ouattara's overhit cross midway through the second-half; but the ref and VAR apparently thought it was impossible to tell if he had played the ball off his chest or the inside of his upper arm and declined to award a penalty. Shortly afterwards, substitute Marcus Tavernier unleashed a savage curling shot against the upright.... and the recently immaculate Justin Kluivert somehow contrived to blaze wide of an open goal as he pounced on the rebound. Really, I can't readily recall a game in which so many things went against the home side, where the final result appeared so unjust.

Moreover, Liverpool should really have had two players sent off: Macallister for a wild whiff at a high ball which ended up just kicking Brooks high on the inner thigh (no, there wasn't ultimately much contact; but it was a reckless challenge, which might have endangered the oppponent, and he got nowhere near the ball; there was so little reason for the attempt that it really looked as if it might just have been a deliberate, petulant assault, and therefore well worthy of a straight red card - let alone the second yellow it should inevitably have been), and shortly afterwards the great Virgil Van Dijk, betraying how rattled he was getting by the home side's relentless attacks, committed a most uncharacteristic piece of thuggery in shoulder-charging Ouattara in the back of the head; again, for any other player that would have been an obvious straight red card, but Virgil has become so revered in our game that he gets cut a lot of slack on incidents like this (it really is impossible to see how that wasn't at least a yellow card). Liverpool's penalty for the opening goal was extremely soft too: I've looked at all the replays dozens of times, and I still can't see any clear contact by Lewis Cook on Gakpo's heels as he runs across behind him; you can, however, clearly see that Gakpo's feet tapped each other, causing him to lose balance. Now, there might have been some contact by Cook, but it must have been very, very slight, and it was not clearly visible (the only thing that makes me suspect some culpability on the Bournemouth defender's part is his lack of protest about the decision; but VAR and the referee are not supposed to take such secondary indicators into consideration); and, especially when the attacking player has clearly tripped himself up, we more often see penalty shouts of this type not given. I do not see how this reached the threshold of being a 'clear and obvious error' by the referee that VAR could feel justified in overruling; and I don't know why VAR was able to just make this decision itself, rather than referring it back to the referee for a second look - the protocols on how these decisions get made are still very unclear, seemingly inconsistent. Yes, Salah's second was a wondergoal, but.... Liverpool really didn't play well enough to deserve anything out of this game - and they needed all the decisions to go in their favour.  [An awful lot of FPL managers punted their Triple Captain chip on the Egyptian King this week. It didn't look a very sensible choice, given how tough both of Liverpool's fixtures looked; and they really didn't deserve to get this fortunate with their gamble, Super-Mo notching a massive 16-point haul in the first of his two games. However, the alternate strategy of playing Bench Boost on a bunch of Everton substitutes - my own preference this week - looks set to return far more points. And Salah, I think, is still likely to return even bigger points at least a few more times this season - possibly even in the next Gameweek, if that also turns out to be a double.]

You might have thought that Leicester's confidence might be buoyed by their win over Spurs last week; and by the return of their first-choice keeper Hermansen; and Vardy can always be dangerous, given half a chance. While Everton have shown absolutely zero awareness of the whereabouts of the opposition goal for most of this season. So, this was a game that you felt might well have gone either way, but was most likely to end in a sterile low-scoring or goalless draw. But the visitors at Goodison fell apart immediately - demoralised by Pickford's long ball over the top putting Doucoure clean in on goal after barely 10 seconds (the fourth quickest goal in Premier League history, apparently!). From then on, the home side appeared to be able to score almost at will. In fact, they might well have had even more; should, in fact, have had a penalty when another piece of dubious refereeing - and the usual cowardly refusal to intervene by VAR - denied them the decision when Westergaard clumsily clattered into Beto and sent him sprawling. [Pickford and Doucoure were two of the players I recently tipped as possiby worth acquiring for this double gameweek. Oh, and Ndiaye too! It's not often my recommendations are so swiftly and so spectacularly vindicated!]

Kieran McKenna really has the restoration of Ari Muric in goal to blame for Ipswich letting more vital points slip away from them at Portman Road, to bottom-of-the-table Southampton. This change was apparently forced by Christian Walton breaking down with a groin injury this week; but the Kosovan keeper had looked so shakey when he was starting earlier in the season that there surely must have been a strong case for giving a chance to the No. 3, Cieran Slicker. Joe Aribo's early opener, though a well-struck volley, went straight through the hapless Muric. Ipswich settled themselves well after this unwelcome setback, and it was pretty much one-way traffic towards the Southampton end thereafter - although the hosts couldn't create many clearcut chances, and were only able to convert one of those they did. Then in the closing minutes, Southampton managed to mount another attack, and Sugawara's firm shot from the edge of the area was tamely parried by Muric straight into the path of the lurking centre-forward Onuacho to hand the visitors the game.

Fulham did well to weather the early storm at Newcastle; the game could easily have been out of their reach after 20 miutes or so. But they reorganised and re-energised themselves at the break, and the home side became strangely sloppy and open in the second half, inviting the visitors to hope for redemption. If Tonali's screamer of a 30-yard half-volley had gone into the corner rather than crashing against the angle of post and bar, or if Livramento's good cross-shot hadn't been kept out by Leno making a superb save with his oustretched foot, there surely would have been no way back for Fulham. And Newcastle should really have taken the lead a second time even in that weaker second half when Willock somehow missed a sitter, taking a fresh-air shot at Isak's perfect square ball in to the near-post. They had a further chance a few minutes later, when Isak seemed to be allowed all day to size up a curling effort of his own - but then smacked it against exactly the same corner of the woodwork as Tonali had done. At least the refereeing seemed sound in this one; the sole major injustice of the game being Anthony Gordon's somehow not being credited with his assist for the first goal (yes, it deflected off a defender, but not substantially - it still made it to a teammate much as intended; we've generally seen such deflections ignored under a more generous approach to awarding 'assists' this year). Jacob Murphy might also be considered a little lucky not to have an own-goal registered against him; it wasn't clear that Raul's original shot for the equaliser had been on target until it cannoned off Murphy's legs.

It has become depressingly predictable that Villa are going to look a yard-and-a-half off-the-pace every time they have to play in the League following a midweek European game. A much improved Wolves were stoked by Bellegarde's superb early breakthrough, and after that, looked like their swift counter-attacks could cut through the visitors at will. Villa made four changes at half-time, which enabled them to assert themselves much more, but Wolves also proved able to defend staunchly. It was not until added-on time that Cunha managed to put the result beyond doubt with a swaggering culmination to his solo breakaway. However, Villa may be rightly unhappy that half-time substitute Donyell Malen's apparent equaliser was ruled out for an 'offside'  by a player who was not in any way 'interfering with play' - and it's not clear if VAR intervened to confirm that decision, or simply sat on its hands and played dumb. (Just a few minutes later, Malen had a fierce shot well parried by Sa, but the play was again stopped by the linesman's flag - again for a very narrow offside against a player who was not remotely involved in the play. What gives??)

Spurs took a valuable step forward in performance level, at long last: they still didn't look very creative or dangerous moving forwards, but played with much more energy and determination, and more cohesion at the back. Nevertheless, to say that the result flattered them would be a huge understatement: Brentford were much the better side overall, and completely dominated the second-half, but somehow just couldn't quite find a goal: Kinsky made a sharp save from Norgaard's crisp volley, the recently impeccable Wissa somehow flicked a header off the top of the bar when he had the whole goal at his mercy, and substitute Carvalho's ambitious overhead effort was scrambled to safety out of the goalmouth by Spence in the last few minutes. Roerslev's sudden departure for the Bundesliga further weakens an already very thinly-stretched defensive roster at Brentford; and having to put in second-choice keeper Valdimarsson probably further unsettled things at the back. Spurs' early breakthrough was a bizarre mix-up, with the Icelandic goalie - perhaps dazzled by the low sun - somehow blocked from getting to a fairly innocuous near-post corner by his own players, and seeing the ball deflect into the net off Janelt's back. And the clincher - a late breakaway finished off by Pape Sarr, of all people - didn't come until deep into added-on time. However, on the other side of the equation, Spurs really should have had a penalty for Collins's cheeky little shove in the back of Mikey Moore - an incident which VAR appeared to give no proper consideration to.

I worry that Amorim's constant experimentation at United is just becoming tiresome and self-harming. For this one, he was again giving Yoro a run-out in the back-three (who's still looking really a bit out of his depth at this level, and surely can't be preferred to De Ligt, unless there's some fitness issue with him we don't know about), playing Mazraoui at wing-back instead of in the back-three (where he really looks better) and putting him on the right and Dalot on the left (when, to me, they look better the other way around), dropping Fernandes back into deep midfield (obviously not his best position), and - most bizarrely - spurning both Zirkzee and Hojlund up front in favour of trying out Kobbie Mainoo as a 'false 9' (that really didn't work at all). One or two of those changes might have been worth a try while keeping the overall structure and selection as intact as possible; but introducing mutliple - non-ideal! - changes at one time was asking for trouble. If he carries on like this, I think the 'dead pool' betting on whether Amorim can survive the season will be hotting up. To be fair, this attacking set-up did have its moments: Diallo (invariably their best player these days) setting up Mainoo to drive a shot against the post early on, and efforts from Fernandes and Ugarte drawing good saves from Henderson. But United regularly looked wide open through the middle, and suffered more and more from Palace's quick attacks as the game went on; Mateta enjoyed several chances through the game, and it was no big surprise when he eventually managed to convert a couple. And Harry Maguire was perhaps just a little lucky to escape being given two yellow cards for committing two silly fouls on Mateta within a few seconds of each other - and then complaining so vociferously about being given one!

City's complete collapse in the second half at The Emirates was hardly a big surprise; I wrote a couple of weeks ago that any talk of a Pep Renaissance was premature, misguided. There were additional problems here to add to their woes: Dias missing again, Ortega having to come in for Ederson (supposedly a minor training-ground injury problem - but one naturally suspects that in fact he's the subject of transfer discussions, or has perhaps just had some kind of falling-out with Pep) probably disrupts the communication and cohesion among the back players, Stones is being rushed back into action before being fully match-sharp again... and De Bruyne was apparently only fit enough to provide a token cameo at the end, when it was too late to save the game. City had their moments: Raya had to make a couple of very sharp reaction saves in the first half from a Gvardiol header and a Savinho shot deflected between a defender's legs; Marmoush was providing some excellent service from corners (but Arsenal are rarely vulnerable from corners...); and they put together a very slick move to grab an equaliser barely 10 minutes into the second half, when Savinho found himself some space in the box, and chipped a high cross towards the far post, where Haaland had, for once, gone up against Saliba rather than Gabriel (who pretty much kept him in his pocket the whole game), and the Frenchman had - most uncharacteristically - taken a nap and allowed the big Norwegian to step in front of him, and thus be allowed a free header. Moreover, Havertz blazing wide of an open goal when he had the chance to put the Gunners two up early in the game had looked as if it might be a confidence-sapping turning point for the home side (curiously, Pep looked even more dismayed by Havertz'z blunder than Mikel!). But City's sniff of a chance to get something from the game evaporated immediately when Partey's deflected drive from outside the box took the lead back in under a minute after the Haaland goal... and then just 5 minutes later an excellent shot from teenage full-back Lewis-Skelly put the match pretty much out of reach. After that, City fell apart, and looked as if they might concede on every counter-attack - which has become a familiar story over the last three months or more. An enjoyable game (if you're not a City fan, at least); and - for once - no contentious refereeing decisions!

On Monday night, Chelsea managed to muscle their way back into 4th place in the League with an expected win over West Ham, but they made heavy weather of it, and there wasn't really a lot to take encouragement from in their performance. The victory might have been, should have been a lot more comfortable - if Madueke hadn't put his shot just beyond the far post when played in behind by Jackson early in the game, or if Areola hadn't been able to fly across his goal to fingertip Palmer's perfect curling free-kick away to safety.... or if Levi Colwill had not gifted West Ham a first-half lead by playing a square pass across the back directly into the path of a grateful Jarrod Bowen. Owners of Robert Sanchez will no doubt be gutted that Maresca has finally seen fit to drop him in favour of Filip Jorgensen (but that's been on the cards for a while, shouldn't be any big surprise; I've been predicting this change, lobbying for it, for two or three months, at least); and anyone who still owns Nicolas Jackson (I have to plead guilty on that...) might be alarmed that he was withdrawn in favour of Marc Guiu short of the hour. There was yet another VAR controversy here, when they took a huge amount of time to check the first Chelsea goal from Neto - but apparently only bothered to rule out a possible interference by the offside Guiu, and overlooked the fact that Colwill had clearly barged Bowen to the ground earlier in the build-up. And I really don't see how Palmer's winner is deemed an own-goal; the touch off Wan-Bissaka's shin as he attempted to block was almost immediate - so, it really is impossible to judge accurately what the path of the ball might otherwise have been; but damn, Palmer was surely shooting for the far post, and Palmer doesn't often miss - it is very, very harsh to deny an attacking player a goal in circumstances like this (and I hope the FA might yet revisit the decision).

'Form' is a funny thing: at the start of the season, Spurs beating Brentford wouldn't have been at all surprising, but now it very much is; while United and City getting beaten is, sadly, not at all unexpected any more. Liverpool's win over Bournemouth was undeserved. And the victories by Southampton, Wolves, and - especially - Fulham were extremely unexpected. And while wins for Forest and Everton against inferior opposition might have been predicted, the massive margins of victory clearly couldn't have been. So, this gameweek's results have really caused a lot of mayhem for FPL managers. Although by the end of the gameweek (in 10 days' time!) the 'Team of the Week' will presumably be heavily populated with Liverpool and Everton players after they've played twice (and anyone who may have a huge performance in the Chelsea v West Ham game tonight!), at the moment only Pickford, Salah, and Wood would have been among the predicted highest returners: names like Munoz, Richards, and Neco Williams, Wolves's Bellegarde, even Palace's Mateta (in what should have been a much tougher game for them) could not really have been expected to feature.

There has been an abundance of dubious refereeing this week, with other games throwing up wrongly allowed or disallowed goals, missed red cards, and at least two penalties that obviously should have been given. But, honestly, there were so many bad decisions - and instances of general 'outrageous fortune' for the home side! - in the Bournemouth game alone that I think this week merits at least a  9 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'. 

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  That damned new chip is in play now. So, I urge you all to quit the game in protest as soon as possible; or at least commit to refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip, and criticise and complain about it online as much as possible.

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW24

It looks as though we've again picked up a few new injury doubts from final round of midweek games in the group phase of this year's European competitions.

The torpid transfer market is finally 'hotting up' ever so slightly, but so far the news is still more about likely leavers than big new arrivals; and most of it is only at the level of gossip and speculation so far.

The main excitement of the week, of course, is the Double Gameweek for Everton and Liverpool (rescheduled from early December when the original fixture date was crashed by Storm Darragh). Alas, the League's unfathomable decision to count this rearranged game as part of Gameweek 24 (although it is 10 days and two different Cup competition rounds after it!!) instead of Gameweek 25 (which it is immediately adjacent to) means that Liverpool are facing Bournemouth along with Everton in the same gameweek, rather than the much more enticing prospect of Wolves and Everton that we'd all been eagerly expecting, and so it's really not a very exciting double gameweek. Nevertheless, huge numbers of managers are punting one of their three bonus chips on this week. Here are my thoughts on the options there.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 24?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

David Raya missed the midweek game against Girona with an unspecified problem, and might be a doubt again this weekend. (Neto will presumably deputise for him in the Arsenal goal again.)

Tyrone Mings limped off with another knee problem last week, but it's being said it's nothing too serious and should only keep him out for a few weeks. And Matty Cash came off with a muscle problem in the midweek game against Celtic, and is likely now to miss a few weeks.

Pervis Estupinan and Solly March dropped out last weekend with muscle problems, and continue to be  doubts.

Eberechi Eze has picked up a foot injury and will now be out for a while.

Ipswich midifelder Wes Burns and Everton midfielder Orel Mangala will both be out for the season after suffering serious knee injuries last weekend.

Harry Wilson suffered a stress fracture in his foot against Forest last week and will probably be missing until April.

Darwin Nunez missed the midweek game against Feyenoord because of illness, and might not be fit enough to be involved this weekend.

James Maddison missed last week's game against Leicester because of a calf problem, which seems likely to keep him sidelined for a least a couple more weeks. And Radu Dragusin picked up a knee problem in Thursday's win over Elfsborg which will keep him out this week at least. (Micky van de Ven was able to play in that one, but Postecoglou doesn't fancy his chances of being able to last a whole match just yet - so, Spurs could be serious short of first-team defenders for the next game.)

Calvert-Lewin and Strand Larsen are both likely to miss a few weeks at least with hamstring strains.

And Lucas Paqueta has been reported to be struggling this week with a groin strain.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Wolves's Joao Gomes is serving a one-match ban after receiving two yellow cards in the game against Arsenal last week. Arsenal's Myles Lewis-Skelly, however, has had his red card in that game overturned on appeal by his club, and will be able to play this week.

Emi Buendia and Jhon Duran look to be set to leave Aston Villa, so will probably not be involved for them again (though they've not been involved that much anyway...)

As I'd anticipated for a little while, Lukasz Fabianski appears to have lost the West Ham goalkeeper's jersey to Alphonse Areola again (that might be rather concerning for the nearly 17% of managers who owned the Pole as a cheap back-up keeper who was actually starting).

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Well, injury-ravaged Spurs are still looking very much like a team to AVOID! They couldn't even beat Leicester last week, for heaven's sake!

And despite a surprisingly comfortable win against somewhat-in-the-doldrums Chelsea, City are still looking deeply unimpressive to me. Foden, Haaland, and Gvardiol look to be in good form, but the team as a whole is a bit of a shambles. As Pep himself dolefully put it in a post-match interview, "Without the ball, we are one of the worst teams."

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, Josko Gvardiol is starting to look like he might score in almost every game. I was very sceptical whether he could possibly be that productive at the start of the season, but he has intermittently given hints that perhaps he could; and lately, those hints have been becoming stronger (just a pity that he - and City - still aren't really that good at any of the defensive stuff!). He is the only City player I'd currently even consider touching with my bargepole.

And the entire Bournemouth team, of course - especially Dango Ouattara, who just might prove to be one of the best-value goalscorers for the remainder of the season.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott; the dratted new 'Assistant Manager' chip has gone live this week - and I am urging everyone to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use this silly chip. 

And if you can't bring yourself to do either of those things, please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

How to use the Assistant Manager chip

 

Setting aside my profound antipathy towards this silly new gimmick chip for a moment... I thought I'd put together a few key thoughts on what you need to consider if you are going to use this chip.

1)  Since the adoption of an 'assistant manager' involves paying a transfer fee, you may have to use one or two transfers to juggle your squad to free up the money (it's not very much money; but it has the potential to be a bothersome inconvenience). Because an 'assistant manager' is treated as part of your per-club player quota, you may also need to make transfers to get rid of a third player from a club that you want the manager from. And you will almost certainly need to give yourself the flexibility of changing your manager during each week that the chip is active, potentially costing you 2 more transfers. Thus, you really ought to try to get as many Free Transfers as possible saved up (under a new rule this season, you can now bank up to 5 FTs at one time) to help you deal with these issues when you decide you want to use the chip. It is also probably worth trying to avoid using the 'Assistant Manager' chip in the run-up to one of the season's two expected 'blank' Gameweeks (GW29 and GW34, when a number of League fixtures will be cancelled because of Cup ties on the same weekend), since you might also need a lot of saved Free Transfers to negotiate those. Similarly, for a major 'turn' in fixtures, when the difficulty of the upcoming fixture sequence shifts drastically for a number of teams at around the same time, you may want to have as many Free Transfers in hand as possible to be able to make multiple squad changes in a short space of time.

2)  The so-called 'table bonus' (for obtaining a result against a side ranked 5 or more places above you in the League at the start of the Gameweek) is HUGE: it is the most important aspect of the 'Assistant Manager' rules, and has to be the main focus of strategy for this chip. (It's worth 10 extra points for a win, 5 extra points for a draw. Absent that bonus, you only get 10 points for a 2-0 or 4-1 win. Even a 0-0 or 1-1 draw with a 'table bonus' can be worth as much as a win without one. So, one successful use of the chip to obtain this bonus is likely to be worth as much as or slightly more than backing a top manager for two wins in a double gameweek. If you can pull off the 'table bonus' twice in a double gameweek, that can be some very big points.)

3)  Unfortunately, it's impossible to know exactly which teams are going to be 5 or more places above your target 'Assistant Manager' team until the end of the preceding gameweek; particularly so this season, when the majority of the table is so tightly packed together that it is very possible for most teams to rise or fall several places in only one or two weeks. With the 'Assistant Manager' being in play for three weeks, you can't expect to know which teams/managers will be most likely to produce good returns in its 2nd and 3rd weeks when you first activate it (and, of course, there may be changes in form or injury troubles affecting the picture too). Also, it's rather easier for players to maintain consistent form over an extended period, and sometimes to do well even when their team isn't. Team form, by contrast, can lurch very suddenly from one extreme to the other, sometimes even from week to week (ahem, Newcastle). But even more importantly for this chip, team form is much more fixture-dependent; a good, in-form attacking player can score goals against almost anyone, but teams mostly settle at a level - where they're likely to beat certain teams and likely to lose to others. Moreover, the fixtures rarely or never line up obligingly - so that you have a run of three fixtures that all look like likely wins (and include a double gameweek, and a few likely opportunities to earn a 'table bonus') for the same club. Unlike our best players (most of the time!), the same manager can't be expected to have anything like the best chance of the best return in successive gameweeks. This is the reason why it is almost certainly going to be essential to change your 'assistant manager' every week in order to derive maximum value from the chip - or at least to be able to keep open your option to do so.

4)  There is also an 'opportunity cost' involved in choosing a manager from a top club. You might well be trebled up on players from that club. And whenever you choose to take three players from the same club (something better avoided, if possible, because it does expose you to a risk of very heavy impacts from occasional bad results or an unexpected postponement), it's because you regard all three of them as extremely valuable. If you're picking a manager who cannot earn a 'table bonus' in that gameweek, the most he can earn for you with this chip is 10-12 points (and, of course, it can be much less); that is likely to be not much better - and potentially rather worse - than you might hope to get from any of his players. At the very best, his advantage over one of those players is likely to be uncertain and only fairly marginal. Plus, of course, there's the possible inconvenience of having to sell a player from that club to make room for your manager, and/or the disadvantage of losing the opportunity to bring in a third player from that club while you have that manager; and the fact that this can cost you additional transfers (you'll probably want to get that third player straight back in when you finish using this manager....). By contrast, choosing a manager from a club from whom you'd never want more than 1 or 2 players - if any - represents a 'pure profit' on the use of this chip; there are no concerns about needing to use up extra transfers to make room, or worries about a player you've been forced to drop or go without potentially out-performing your manager. (Of course, you won't have lost all of the dropped player's points, because you will have brought someone in to replace him, who might have done very nearly as well; but having to drop a key squad player to accommodate your manager pick does undercut the manager's value to some extent - particularly in a double gameweek [when these players may be part only a small number having the advantage of playing twice, and are thus likely to outscore almost everyone else]. To correctly identify the true value of the 'Assistant Manager' chip's return, you should calculate if there's a surplus of points earned by the third player from the manager's club who you might have chosen over the points you got from the player you have instead of him.... and deduct that points difference from the AM score for the gameweek.)  For these reasons, managers from top clubs do not represent 'good value' for this chip.

5)  Because, like the other bonus chips - Triple Captain and Bench Boost - the 'Assistant Manager' chip can potentially gain a big points-lift from being played in a Double Gameweek, there is a further 'opportunity cost' to be evaluated when you decide on a DGW chip use. In the upcoming DGW24, for instance, many people are currently favouring playing their Triple Captain on Mo Salah; if this works out, it could well be worth 20-30 extra points for the gameweek. However, setting up a bench with doubling Everton players and playing Bench Boost could potentially bring you 30 or 40 extra points, or even more. It is very unlikely that either of this week's double-fixture managers, Arne Slot or David Moyes, can reach 20 points (though Moyes at least has the theoretical chance to pick up a 'table bonus' against Liverpool, which would boost his return substantially; and he may have the better prospect of a comfortable win against Leicester).

6)  Because the 'Assistant Manager' chip has an extended activation period of three gameweeks, rather than just the usual one gameweek, you need to be very wary of playing it at any period when you might potentially want to call on one of your other chips. This would certainly include any likely blank and double gameweeks (until you've finalised a desired 'chip strategy' for making the best use of all your bonus chips, in the light of the likely Double Gameweek opportunities), when you might need Free Hit or Wildcard in order to put out a full eleven for a week with a lot of postponements, or want to use the Triple Captain or Bench Boost to take advantage of extra fixtures in a gameweek. Arguably, you might also want to steer clear of using it in February, while there is still an elevated risk of sudden postponements due to bad weather.

In summary:

Focus on the possibility of extra points for the 'table bonus', not just secure wins; look for managers/teams and fixture runs that look like they could offer good opportunities to win some of these bonuses.

Consider fixture runs for multiple clubs, not just one, within the period of possible chip activation - and be prepared to change your manager selection every week, if necessary.

Be ready to take risks. You're going to have to bet on low-ranking clubs, clubs who've performed poorly and/or inconsistently for much of the season, to have the chance of getting these 'table bonuses'. There's a very good chance they'll often let you down. But if they don't, it will be worth it!

Beware the managers from the top teams. It might be easier to predict their results, but missing out on the 'table bonuses' is a massive disadvantage. And there are further risks involved in having to go without one of their players - who has the potential to score more points than the manager (and very probably will at least slightly outscore another player you have instead of them, especially in a Double Gameweek - which will detract from your 'Assistant Manager's contribution).

Carefully weigh up the merits of the Double Gameweek opportunities for each of your bonus chips: Triple Captain or Bench Boost will be better options for some of them.

Try to stock up as many Free Transfers as you can, to make activating and using the 'Assistant Manager' chip as painless as possible. (And try to avoid using the chip when you need to save up Free Transfers for other reasons, such as a big 'turn' in fixture difficulties for several teams, or a looming Blank Gameweek.)

Be careful about using the 'Assistant Manager' chip in a period when you might want to use one of the other chips instead - particularly around the Blank and Double Gameweeks. (You might have chosen to use it to take advantage of a Double Gameweek; but if you've played the chip a week or two ahead, you can't change your mind if circumstances relating to the attractiveness of that Double Gameweek change. And remember that using the chip may create an extra drain on your stock of saved transfers - something you'd like to avoid in the last few gameweeks before a Blank or a Double.)

This damned new chip is, of course, in play now. But, rather than playing it,.... I urge you all to quit the game in protest as soon as possible; or at least commit to refusing to use the chip. And please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible.

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A little bit of Zen (27)

 

"Success is not final, failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts."

Winston Churchill

Picks of the Week - for Double Gameweek 24

 

Now that the postponed Merseyside derby has been rearranged for the evening of Wednesday 12th February, and - bizarrely! - that's been attached to Gameweek 24, even though it occurs 10 days after all the other fixtures, instead of Gameweek 25 which it is immediately adjacent to....  it is looking tempting to load up on additional Liverpool/Everton players to take advantage of the fact they'll have two chances to claim points in the same gameweek. Who are the most tempting picks?

Well, obviously everyone has Mo Salah, anyway. Other Liverpool attacking assets are not looking so tempting for this one, as both games are away from home, and against two teams who are usually very strong defensively (Bournemouth have the best home form in the league, and have been starting to look devastating in attack as well in the last few games; and 'upsets' are always on the cards in a derby game). Moreover, there's perpetual doubt about who the favoured starters might be. That has been allayed recently, with Gakpo hitting good goalscoring form, Jota being sidelined with injury again, Chiesa not yet having been fully integrated into the squad and seemingly almost always carrying some sort of injury, and Slot admitting that it's difficult to make effective use of Darwin Nunez when Liverpool find themselves up against a 'low block' most of the time; the preferred trident is, for now, fairly obviously Gakpo-Diaz-Salah. However, this is a bit rough on Luis Diaz, who is much more at home on the left flank than working in the middle, and doesn't often look that much of a goal threat when played as the No. 9. Moreover, both he and Gakpo are very likely to have to share minutes with Nunez and Chiesa, and can expect to be subbed off quite early, even if they start both games. 

Because of his fine recent form (5 goals and 4 assists in the last 7 games), I would consider Cody Gakpo as an additional attacking asset for the double. But you have to consider that Chris Wood, Alexander Isak, and Yoane Wissa also have very promising fixtures this week - so, even with two opportunities to score, Gakpo might not in fact do as well as any of these, and using transfers to replace one of them with Gakpo would be a bit extravagant, if you only fancy him as a short-term hold. (It was announced the next day that, if they reach the Final of the League Cup, Liverpool's GW29 fixture against Villa would be moved forward rather than backward, to Wednesday 19th February. Of course, they have to get past Spurs in the second leg of the semi-final first. And it is uncertain whether the League would attach that midweek make-up fixture to GW25 or GW26. But there is a very good chance that Liverpool will now be doubling in successive weeks, or at least twice very close together, so that will probably tip the balance in favour of bringing in a player like Gakpo.)  

The other Liverpool option I'd consider - a bit more left-field, a bit more 'differential' - is attacking midfielder Dominik Szoboszlai, who has been looking in great form recently; and who, with Curtis Jones currently carrying an injury, is probably a little bit less of a minutes-risk than Gakpo or Diaz. (As above, I probaby wouldn't have fancied him just for these two fairly unpromising GW24 fixtures; but the possibility that he might get a double in GW25 or GW26 makes him a much more attractive punt.)

However, I think that, in what should be quite tight, cagey games, Liverpool defensive assets are to be preferred. Trent Alexander-Arnold has been looking more threatening in attacking situations recently, and obviously has an edge as a prospect for additional contributions. However, he hasn't been delivering these nearly as frequently or consistently this year, and I really don't think he earns his extra transfer cost. I prefer Ibrahima Konate over either Virgil Van Dijk or Alexander-Arnold, because he'll probably return the same points for considerably less money; although there is a slight worry that he is reportedly still suffering occasionally with a long-standing problem in one of his knees, and may sometimes need a rest when the fixtures stack up close together. I think I'd be willing to take the chance on him here, though, as the weekend game preceding the second fixture is only an FA Cup tie against Plymouth, for which many regular first-teamers can probably be safely omitted.  Robertson and Tsimikas have been sharing minutes a bit recently, so both are a risky choice for the double; however, they - or perhaps even Trent's understudy, Conor Bradley - might be worth a punt if you're chasing that elusive 'differential' advantage.

The top pick for me, though, would be goalkeeper Alisson - who has a pretty good chance of two clean sheets... or at least of making lots of saves, if these opponents do prove more dangerous than Liverpool fans hope/expect.... which will give him an edge over the defenders. Moreover, if you can afford a premium keeper, I'd say Alisson is the best choice for the rest of the season. Liverpool's defensive record has been outstanding; and he's very likely to have at least two more double gameweeks, by way of reaching the League Cup Final and the FA Semi-Final.

Similarly with Everton, they have had a mostly very solid defence this season, but have struggled badly for goals themselves, so I would favour defensive assets. Vitalii Mykolenko would be the preferred option from the back-four, I think, because of his potential to offer an occasional attacking contribution as well; though the central pair, perhaps especially young Jarrad Branthwaite, would also be strong possibilities. Ashley Young had been having an outstanding season, but is, alas, too old to be really reliable, and appears to have lost the start now; and the selection at right-back is probably too uncertain to punt on - I'd stick with Mykolenko.

As with Alisson, Jordan Pickford is probably the most inviting pick from the whole team - because he'll almost certainly pick up a lot of 'saves' points if they do get a bit battered in one or both games, but surely also has a good chance of at least one clean sheet. And with Everton starting to show signs of improvement under David Moyes, he's probably a decent keeper pick for the rest of the season. [There's a lot to be said, actually, for getting both Alisson and Pickford - if you have the transfers to spare - and stacking your bench with Everton players for a Bench Boost this week.]

Some people were getting excited about Dominic Calvert-Lewin as an attacking prospect; but his goalscoring form has always been too erratic to be persuade me of his worth. And anyway, it looks as though he's now going to be out for several weeks with a hamstring injury. I much prefer Iliman Ndiaye or Beto as forward options for that club anyway, and they'll have more responsibility for goals placed on them in Calvert-Lewin's absence. Ndiaye has been consistently impressive this season - very pacey, very skillful, a cool finisher - but has usually been played out wide, and a bit too deep to have much impact around the box. I am hopeful that he might be deployed further forward now; I think, in fact, he could probably fulfil the No. 9 role - although Beto will probably be preferred for that. However, it does look as if he's taking over from Calvert-Lewin on penalties - so, that's a major point in his favour.

I could have been excited about the possibilities of Dwight McNeil, if he'd been able to play in these two fixtures; but with him needing surgery on his troublesome knee, he's now likely to remain out for quite some time. The only other midfield option who might be worth a thought is Abdelaye Doucoure, who's a very dependable central midfielder - and someone who does come up with the occasional goal. And against currently dismal Leicester, he might get an opportunity to do that.

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  That damned new 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now. So, I urge you all to quit the game in protest as soon as possible, ideally during the coming week; or at least commit to refusing to use the chip, and criticise and complain about it online as much as possible.

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

The final countdown.....

I had been about to try to fake up some excitement about this year's mid-season transfer window by observing that we now have less than 72 hours before it closes...

But, what do you know?  I'd been expecting it to close at midnight on Friday, because.... you know, tradition. And the calendar.

But I've just discovered that this year the deadline is not at midnight on the 31st, but at 11pm (UK time) on Monday, 3rd February.

So, we have a whole 5 more days..... of waiting for nothing to happen. Oh, joy!

So far, the moves of Kinsky to Spurs, Malen to Villa, Marmoush to City, and Philogene and Enciso to Ipswich have been the only events of even mild interest to unfold. Well, apart from the amusing spectacle of Arsenal repeatedly leaking details of forwards they've supposedly made lavish bids for, only to discover that no-one wants to go and play for them....

But Arsenal and Manchester United and Manchester City and Newcastle and Villa and Spurs and a few others are really quite desperate to bolster their squad depth, if not to acquire one or two major new assets in key areas, so things might yet get a bit more interesting.

And everyone seems to thrive on the insane brinksmanship of trying to tie up the details of a deal in the last hours and minutes before the window closes. So, there's quite likely to be a late flurry of activity next Monday evening.

To keep up with developments (if any should ever occur...), I've mainly been looking to the very simple transfer updates page being maintained by the Fantasy Football Scout website... although this is a very similar resource, with slightly more commentary, on Football Transfers, if you crave an alternative (or just want some additional confirmation, to soothe your cynicism; I usually do).

A Commitment (and a Confession)

As I've been promising - and advocating for others to do too - for several weeks now, I have renounced the game of Fantasy Premier League for the rest of this season, in protest at the introduction of the new 'Assistant Manager' bonus chip, which I see as a stupid, pointless, and game-ruining gimmick.

And, as I shared on here a couple of days ago, since FPL refuses to let me delete my squad or remove it from competition without also relinquishing my entire account - with its competition history, and the mini-leagues I administer - into oblivion too, I find myself obliged to let my team go on without me... a 'zombie' team, shambling on inexorably toward the end of season without any intelligent direction.

And so I find myself with a slightly abashed confession to make: I did 'cheat' on the terms of my original resolve to quit the game as soon as the Assistant Manager chip went live.... just a little bit.

I was resigned to having my squad slowly eroded by injuries (or transfers!) or shifts in form over the remainder of the season, and probably being mightily shafted by my inabiliity to use my remaining 'rebuild' chips, or to adapt with transfers to the major speedbumps of the blank and double gameweeks we encounter later in the year, or to ever rotate my captaincy around fluctuating form and fixtures. But I did decide to hastily use up my two bonus chips, the Triple Captain and Bench Boost (earlier than I would have liked, possibly far from ideal deployments). And I also set up as well as I could for the upcoming Double Gameweek - and, hopefully, for the rest of the season - with some final transfers.... in what was technically Gameweek 24. (And, as you can see in the memorial screenshot at the top of this post, I've got my Bench Boost in play this week - on an Everton-stacked bench.)

All I can say in my defence is that I did this in a mad, guilty rush, immediately after the last Gameweek deadline closed (so, before any of the GW23 games had been played, and thus with no knowledge of what new shifts in form we might see, or what injuries and suspensions might emerge over the weekend),..... and I did feel bad about even that slight departure from my high-minded intentions.

I hope any regular readers (it looks like I do have a few already?) can forgive me this small lapse. I hope I can forgive myself.

I do sincerely believe that this new Assistant Manager chip is worth fighting against - as consistently and emphatically as we are able. Please join me in this righteous crusade!

Join The Boycott:

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip