Luck-o-Meter (25)

 

 

Oh dear god, what is wrong with Chelsea? Yes, evening kick-offs often unsettle a team's usual preparation rhythms - especially a Friday evening fixture, in the middle of winter, away from home....  But that's a pretty lame excuse. The FPL Sheep are inclined to blame Palmer, of course; and yes, he had a rather subdued game. But he was about the only Chelsea player who played OK; just about everyone else was poor. Cucurella, who has been outstanding for most of the season so far, was very poor. From the abbreviated highlights I've been able to see so far, it was not apparent that Nkunku was even on the pitch - but apparently he was. Jackson is evidently going to be a big miss; Lavia continues to be a huge hole in their engine-room; and I'm not convinced that Reece James is the force he once was, possibly not justifying inclusion any more. But Chelsea should have a big enough squad to adapt. I think the replacement of Sanchez with Jorgensen should be a positive change; so might the inclusion of Chalobah in the centre of defence. And Palmer is still Palmer, even when the rest of the team around him is terrible. And they still completely dominated possession here, were undone simply by three astonishing pieces of individual skill. (Also, I do think Palmer was fouled in the build-up to the second goal. And Enzo's alleged 'push' on Veltman that led to his headed goal being disallowed looked very, very soft. [Only the Argentinian's slightly guilty expression afterwards made me wonder if perhaps the decision was deserved after all....]  If those two calls had gone Chelsea's way, perhaps the result would have worked out differently. Chelsea really can't catch a break from the referees this season.)  At least I can console myself that I predicted Fabian Hurzeler was probably the best 'Assistant Manager' pick for the week!

And damn, if Friday night fixtures are sometimes a bit of a curse, Saturday lunchtime ones almost always seem to be! Apart from the youngsters Nwaneri and Lewis-Skelly, none of the Arsenal team seem to have had their Weetabix before this one. Well, they've often looked strangely toothless this season, even with their first-choice front three available; now that they're missing all of them, it's not surprising that they looked a bit lost. Leicester deserve some credit for mounting a very robust and well-organised defence - but the first 70 minutes or so were one of the dullest Premier League encounters we've seen all season. Only Ndidi's header flashing just wide of the far post in the final seconds of the first half, and Nwaneris fierce strike against the upgright with 15 minutes left lent any frisson of excitement to the game. However, I am claiming further brownie points for the week, since, in addition to tipping Hurzeler, I've also been saying on some of the FPL forums this week that Merino could probably fill in quite nicely for Havertz. Probably more as a 'false 0' than a conventional centre-forward - just as Havertz usually is - but he's got all the attributes: tall, strong, good in the air, knows where the goal is. (Trossard is a great goalscorer, but doesn't have the physicality to be a central striker - as was painfully apparent in this game.)  And a personal gripe here: I really do not understand how Raya, who barely had to do anything all game, got the last bonus point ahead of Gabriel??

Villa were not quite as poor as I'd imagined they might be, but still pretty lacklustre: even at home, against a 10-man Ipswich, they weren't able to make much impression in the game until the last 20 minutes or so - when an outstanding debut performance from new keeper Alex Palmer (another player I've been talking up recently - I'm on a bit of a roll!) kept the visitors alive. But sending someone off after only 40 minutes is incredibly harsh, and really should not have happened: both of Tuanzebe's 'offences' were incredibly soft - the first really not a foul at all, and the second harly deserving of a card (he put his hand on Ramsey's shoulder, which you shouldn't do; but there was absolutely no force in it, it was neither a pull nor a push; and there was no contact with the legs either - the Villa man simply dived when he felt some contact: NOT even a foul for me, certainly not a card). At least Rashford was quite sharp in his late cameo (though hardly worthy of more than 1 bonus point, though the unfathomable BPS somehow saw fit to give him 2!!) - but Villa are looking more and more like a bottom thrid side to me.

The inevitable bleating of the Sheep about a City renaissance is still premature (especially with Haaland crashing out of the game with a knee injury: looks like it's probably a cartilage problem rather than ligaments - but still likely to keep him out for several weeks). Newcastle just didn't show up for this one: they got into the game slightly more in the second half, but during the opening 45 minutes they were just woeful, completely lacking their trademark 'intensity'. Of course, they were gutted by the two quick goals from Omar Marmoush (though he was very close to being offside for both; and it was Newcastle defenders' fault that he wasn't); but they were cut open again and again, offered no competitiveness in midfield, and barely created a chance of their own. City were much improved (mainly down to Nico Gonzalez starting to give them some coherence in central midfield again; let's see how that develops over the next few games...) - but still not really 'good'.

Fulham, though - 'Renaissance' might be an appropriate word to use about their performance! They've been mostly very unconvincing for the past couple of months (somewhat lucky wins against extremely poor displays from Newcastle and Leicester, but dropping points against the other relegation teams, and getting beaten by Manchester United and West Ham...), but they were transformed yesterday: Raul, Traore, Iwobi, Smith Rowe, Lukic and Pereira were all superb. Forest started quite brightly, but things somehow just weren't firing for them, and they soon allowed the home side to start dominating. Only yet another one-chance-one-goal contribution from the unstoppable Chris Wood and a string of fine saves from Madz Sels kept them in the game - in the second half, it often looked as if it might be heading for another Bournemouth result.

Bournemouth really have the best form of any Premier League side over the past couple of months; and the scoreline in their visit to Southampton didn't do them justice - in a dominating display, they looked like they could easily have won 5-0 or 6-0 (FPL managers with Bournemouth players can count themselves unlucky that it wasn't!). Some fine saves from Ramsdale kept the home side just about in it, and a late goal out of nothing from Suleimana briefly gave the visitors some anxieties, but ultimately a very, very comfortable win. And yet another goal for Dango Ouattara - who I tipped as an exciting FPL prospect a month ago. The really weird thing about this match was how the BPS could ascribe more credit to Southampton's Joe Aribo than to 5 of the 7 players who contributed a goal or an assist (denying a bonus point to Ouattara and Kluivert)! WTF??!

Thomas Frank is no doubt frustrated that his side allowed a lacklustre West Ham to increasingly get on top during the course of the second half. Brentford really should have put the game well beyond reach long before then; but Mbeumo brought a couple of sharp saves out of Areola, Wissa had two goals ruled out for offside, and Schade crashed a drive against the foot of the post three-quarters of the way through the game. I found the second offside particularly mystifying: Ajer had clearly strayed half a yard off, but was moving away from goal to receive the ball; I'm not up-to-date with the now nnnecessarily and unworkably complicated Offside Law, but back in my youth, if a player received the ball in an onside position, it didn't matter if he had been offside when it was played; in any case, it looked to me as if VAR had chosen to draw in their magic 'lines' a good half a second or so before the ball was actually played forward, so I'm not convinced the Brentford man was offside anyway. There was absolutely nothing in Bowen's late penalty shout: he was pretty clearly fouling Lewis-Potter, rather than the other way around - at least the ref (and VAR? not clear if that was reviewed....) got that one right.

It was rough on Everton to be forced to kick-off again less than 70 hours after the end of their momentous midweek derby game, and it's not surprising that they mostly looked quite lacklustre in this game. But Palace were also lacking spark, were unable to turn their domination of possession into many clearcut chances (and weren't able to get past Pickford on the few occasions they did). In fact, Mateta's equalising goal for them looked very dubious to me: it was another one of those occasions where VAR took an inordinately long time to adjudicate a possible offisde against him; and when they finally did so, the 'lines' were so close together that it was impossible to divine why they had been drawn where they were (to the naked eye, he definitely looked off - by a shoulder). And that painful technical challenge of deciding where to draw the lines seemed to have distracted them from paying any attention to the question of whether Guehi's hooked ball forwards from the edge of the box was 'dangerous play' (to me, it clearly was!). Palace might feel a little hard done-by that Mateta's apparent opener, heading home from a high corner to the far post, was ruled out for the ball having bent out of play in its flight; those are always very difficult ones to judge - but it looked to me like the linesman got it right. Ultimately, the visitors were well worth their win - with another extremely cool finish from Beto, and a fantastic debut performance from new loan signing Carlos Alcaraz.

HUGE luck manifesting in the big game at Anfield on Sunday afternoon! Not necessarily to do with the officiating (for once, thank heavesn), but just all kinds of really weird combinations of circumstance that led to distorted or unnexpected or unfair points outcomes. Trent Alexander-Arnold, who was having one of his best-forgotten-about games, and might well have been pulled before the hour, was allowed to stay on the pitch for 67 minutes - at which point Liverpool still had a clean sheet, so he became the only Liverpool defender to get 6 pts for the game. Many FPL managers will have gone instead for the always dependable Virgil van Dijk for this gameweek's double-fixture, but he got only 2 pts. Some may have opted for the cheaper but usually just-as-good Ibrahima Konate, but he had to be withdrawn at half-time after picking up a (very soft) early yellow card from referee Simon Hooper. So, Liverpool's worst defender on the day got the most points - go figure. And Mo Salah might have had an assist  (OK, the Wolves defender attempted a clearance rather than just passively having the ball deflect off him - but it didn't substantially alter the direction the ball was travelling; Salah had played it towards Diaz, and it reached Diaz.... we've seen 'assists' like that given under the new, supposedly more 'generous' definitional policy this year!), did score a stunning second goal which was eventually ruled out for an offside so tight that no-one could see it (except VAR; but even they seemed embarrassed or uncertain about the call, because they omitted to display their customary 'lines' to justify the decision), and had a second penalty award reversed (probably rightly; but only because Jota dived so theatrically, was so obviously flicking out his leg looking for the contact with Agbadou's hip; however, there was some contact - and we've seen those given...). Diaz's more artful diving won him him an assist and the maximum bonus points (at Salah's expense). And Cunha's more or less inevitable goal-out-of-nothing denied everybody (except Trent!) a clean-sheet bonus. Jeez - if either the offside or the second penalty had gone in Liverpool's favour, Wolves would probably have been demoralised and it could have turned into a rout; Salah could easily have had a 20+ point game here..... and wound up with a measly 7???  FPL can be a very cruel game sometimes.

The other main points of note in this match were Cunha curling a free-kick a whisker beyond the top right corner in the first half, when Alisson was getting nowhere near it, and Quansah's superb last-ditch challenge to deny Wolves an equaliser late in the game. Oh, and the Konate business: multiple small 'controversies' there. For the first card, he barely put his arm around Cunha for a moment: yes, it was a cynical attempt to distract the Wolves forward, hold him back for a fraction of a second; a foul, certainly - but scarcely worthy of a card, especially so early in the game. However, the big defender might count himself lucky that he didn't receive a second yellow immediately, for protesting against the foul being called so vociferously, and then petulantly nudging the ball into touch (it may be uncertain, in fact, which of these three things Simon Hooper actually showed the card for). The later incident where he shoulder-charged Cunha in the side of the head looked fairly innocuous (the Brazilian was play-acting to get the ref to pay more attention to the decision); there might perhaps have been a slight element of the accidentally-on-purpose about it, but it did look as if Konate genuinely had all his attention on trying to head the incoming ball and was unaware of Cunha's proximtiy: just an inadvertent collision. Again, clearly a foul, but - for me - nowhere near a yellow card.

The major element of luck in the almost unwatchably dull Spurs v Manchester United game was the late news of Amad Diallo's injury (ankle ligaments apparently - likely to write him off for the rest of the season) - a bitter blow for the 24% of managers that had owned him. Things were even worse for Ruben Amorim: a late spate of other training injuries and illness made it difficult for him to scrape together an eleven - out-of-favour Victor Lindelof the only senior player available for his bench, the other back-up spots all being filled by untested Academy teenagers (who he didn't trust sufficiently to actually give any minutes). Postecoglou, on the other hand, was able to take comfort from the fact that most of his long injury-list are finally back in training. Goalkeeper Vicario was able to return to action a little sooner than had been expected, and made a crucial contribution with a number of smart saves. United actually started quite brightly, and had the best of the opening exchanges - particularly in a brief hectic spell when saves from Hojlund and Garnacho efforts and then a goal-line clearance by Ben Davies kept the game at 0-0. The big turning point of the match was undoubtedly Garnacho skying a sitter when he had the opportunity to equalise shortly after Spurs nicked the lead.

In the gameweek's final fixture on Wednesday evening, Villa gave hope to their fans, and the significant numbers of FPL managers who had rather optimistically punted on them for their double-fixture. They weren't exactly stellar, but it was one of the liveliest league performances they've produced for a very, very long time, if not all season. From the brief highlights available online, it looks as though there was nothing contentious in the officiating. An own-goal from Van Dijk in the first-half, muffing an attempted clearance of a Rashford cross, and a late effort from Ramsey were both rightly ruled out for offside. Trent Alexander-Arnold's equaliser was very lucky to count, or at least to be counted to his credit, since it looked as if he had only been kept onside by Digne's stretching toe as they both raced towards the touchline, and then the shot looked as if it would have been well outside the far post before deflecting into the ground off Mings's shin.... But Trent is beloved of the FPL gods, who spurn no opportunity to shower points on him; which is perhaps enough of a reason to back him in itself - it is mostly a game of luck, and Trent is one of the luckiest. The BPS notoriously does not love Mo Salah, on the other hand: yet again, this crackpot system contrived to deny him maximum bonus points, awarding them instead to Youri Tielemans (and by a solitary BPS credit, at that - cruel, cruel) - although Salah both scored and assisted. Liverpool were uncharacteristically slipshod in defence in this one; and also a bit wasteful with their finish - substitute Darwin Nunez, of course, claimed the distinction for the worst miss of the evening, with 20 minutes left. Rashford again put in a decent and hard-working display down the left flank, but couldn't last much beyond the hour; and I thought the much more promising performance from a Villa newcomer here was that of Marco Asensio.

[Good grief - so far (on Saturday), this week looks like it might be only a  2 or 3 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter', at least as regards the refeering. Unheard of! Overall, though, it's going to be a lot more than that.....]

No, not a terrible week for the decisions, overall. But Axel Tuanzebe's sending-off was outrageously unjust; and, in a rather similar way, Konate was forced out of the Wolves game at half-time by an over-hasty first yellow card from Simon Hooper. I don't feel Mateta's goal against Everton should have been allowed to stand. And there were several ridiculously tight offsides (the adjudication of which was often left mysterious: either VAR was not displaying the 'lines' on the screen, or it was perplexing why the 'lines' had been drawn where they were.... or the TV commentators omitted to reassure us that VAR had done its thing at all; this inconstency of approach does not inspire public confidence in the system).

Fulham's win against Forest and City's - comfortable - victory over (no-show!!) Newcastle, and Villa's spirited midweek draw against Liverpool can all be considered upset results. And, with many of the usually most fancied players - including most of the doublers - having a quiet week, we've ended up with a very odd 'Team of the Week': nobody, surely, would have bet their house on Ederson, Bassey, Spence, Alcaraz, Merino, or Minteh - or even Watkins or Marmoush, for that matter (some chance of a return, but hardly among the favourites for haul-of-the-week!). The post-deadline injury revelation about high-owned Amad Diallo was a huge piece of misfortune. As was Gakpo's absence from either game of the double-fixture, after initially just being announced as a 'slight doubt' for the first one, after picking up a slight knock in the Merseyside derby last Thursday. And the dreaded 'Bonus Points System' was up to its tricks big time this week, with Salah, Watkins, Gabriel, Ouattara, and Kluivert (and probably a few others) unfathombably being robbed of extra points by its eccentric performance ratings. And good lord, we saw 2 assists from goalkeepers in the same week!! (I sense a disturbance in The Force....)

So, although the refereeing wasn't too disruptive for once, the wild swings of form, unexpected team and individual performances, and glitches within the fabric of the FPL game mechanics... get this gameweek up to at least a 7 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  That damned new 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now. I am taking the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season. If you don't feel like joining me in such an emphatic gesture, please at least think about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip - and criticise and complain about it online as much as possible.

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW25

Damn, it seems like ages since we last had any EPL football! In the last two weeks, the winter transfer window has finally closed (with the usual flurry of late business on the final day), the delayed Merseyside derby has been caught up, the finalists for the League Cup Final have been determined, the new play-off stage for the European competitions has got under way, .... and the 4th Round of the FA Cup has inevitably produced a few more injury worries for us to ponder. Oh, and the damned new 'Assistant Manager' chip has been available for the first time in this Gameweek just past (and a lot of people were using it already...).

The biggest news for FPL is that Liverpool prevailed on the FA to move their GW29 fixture against Villa (the weekend they'll play the League Cup Final against Newcastle) forward rather than backwards - 'anteponing' it! (I really can't ever recall that happening before!!), so it's now scheduled for Wednesday 19th February..... making this a Double Gameweek for Liverpool and Villa (and the Scousers' second in successive weeks).

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 25?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Gabriel Martinelli came off in the FA Cup defeat to Newcastle last week with a hamstring problem; 'not too serious', but likely to keep him out for 3 or 4 weeks. Meanwhile, Kai Havertz has apparently picked up a similar - but reportedly much more severe - problem while Arsenal were taking a break for some warm-weather training.... which looks as though it could keep him out for most of the rest of the season. (Grim news for Arsenal, coming hot on the heels of their embarrassing failure to land any new players in the transfer window. At least this presumably means that Ethan Nwaneri and Leandro Trossard will be getting reliable minutes for a while; that could be interesting for FPL.)

Ezri Konsa also hobbled off with a leg muscle problem in the Cup win over Spurs; again, Emery thinks 'not too serious', but he is a major doubt for the current gameweek. (This presumably means that new loan signing Axel Disasi might come straight in, as Pau Torres is expected to be out for a few more weeks, and Tyrone Mings has only just resumed training after suffering a jarred knee a couple of weeks ago.) Ollie Watkins, withdrawn at half-time against Wolves with a groin muscle problem two weeks ago, has apparently resumed light training in the last couple of days, but is looking doubtful to be fully involved in the next two matches.

Lewis Dunk had to come off in the surprise Cup win against Chelsea last week with 'sore ribs', and seems unlikely to be available for Brighton this weekend.

Brentford keeper Mark Flekken missed the League game against Spurs two weeks ago because of strained side muscles, and continues to be a doubt this week, with his deputy Hakon Valdimarsson looking likely to step in again.

Both Nico Jackson and his understudy Marc Guiu picked up hamstring problems in the game against West Ham two weeks ago; Jackson is now thought likely to be out until the end of March, Guiu possibly even longer. (Could perhaps be an opportunity for 'forgotten man' Christopher Nkunku to become a surprise late-season FPL asset...?)

Ismaila Sarr missed Palace's Cup game on Monday night with an illness, Eddie Nketiah with a twisted ankle, and Eberechi Eze was simply treated to a precautionary rest (as his long-standing foot injury is still bothering him) - but Glasner thinks all three should be OK for the visit of Everton.

Everton's star man recently, Illiman Ndiaye, went off in Wednesday's rambunctious Merseyside derby after 20-odd minutes, having suffered a knock to his knee; no word yet on how serious it might be. Full-back Nathan Patterson is also missing again, with a hamstring problem picked up in training before last week's FA Cup games.

Reiss Nelson was apparently on the verge of being eligible for a comeback for Fulham, but has just injured his other hamstring in training and is now expected to be unavailable for more several weeks.

Ipswich's Sammie Szmodics, only just back from an ankle injury, had to come off in their FA Cup tie with a similar problem - possibly a recurrence of the same thing - and is now likely to be out again for some weeks.

Jamie Vardy and Jannik Vestergaard both missed Leicester's Cup game against Manchester United with training-ground knocks, but are expected to be available again this week.

Joe Gomez went off with a hamstring problem in Liverpool's shock Cup defeat to Plymouth Argyle: not 'that serious', but likely to make him a doubt for a few weeks at least (though you wouldn't expect him to be making any starts in the League while Konate and Van Dijk are fit). Cody Gakpo might also be a doubt, complaining of a knock when he came off against Everton.

Jack Grealish and Manuel Akanji both had to come off in the Champions League defeat to Real Madrid with a muscle injuries - yet more woe for Pep!

There seems to have been no official announcement yet on the knee injury suffered by Lisandro Martinez in the defeat against Palace two weeks ago, but it looked very much like an ACL tear - which would obviously keep him out until next season. (With Luke Shaw having apparently picked up yet another muscle injury in training, this at least surely means that Mazraoui will now be assured of a regular start on the left side of the back three - his best position - with Maguire and De Ligt as his preferred partners. A bit of stablility and continuity in the defence selections can only be a good thing for United.)

Sven Botman is again a doubt, after complaining of pain in his knee after the League Cup semi-final win over Arsenal. With Dan Burn picking up a muscle problem in the FA Cup tie against Brimingham, Newcastle are possibly looking spread thin at the back again. Joelinton will also be missing for a few weeks, after having to come off with a knee problem in the League game against Fulham at the start of the momth. At least Anthony Gordon has been spotted back in training this week, after missing the Birmingham game with a 'knock'.

Southampton defender Taylor Harwood-Bellis missed the FA Cup game after coming off at half-time in the League win at Ipswich two weeks ago with an ankle injury - should be in contention again this week, though.

The Spurs injury list gets even longer, with defender Radu Dragusin now out for the season after suffering an ACL injury in their Europa League game against Elfsborg; while Richarlison seems to have picked up a significant calf-muscle injury in the League Cup defeat to Liverpool.

Lucas Paqueta missed the Chelsea game two weeks ago with a groin problem, and is still a doubt.

Hwang Hee-Chan had to go off with a hamstring problem in Wolves's FA Cup win over Blackburn, but Pereira didn't think it was too serious.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Abdoulaye Doucoure and Curtis Jones are banned for this weekend after the little post-game fracas at Goodison Park on Wednesday, for which they both picked up second yellow cards after the final whistle.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

It looks rather as if the occasionally calamitous Robert Sanchez has finally lost his place in the Chelsea goal to Filip Jorgensen - although Maresca has been making noises about the Spaniard being 'given a rest' rather than dropped.... so, maybe he'll yet make a comeback. With Chelsea's recent form, not a very attractive pick anyway!

The recently even more disastrous Ari Muric at Ipswich will surely immediately lose his place beween the sticks to promising new signing Alex Palmer.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

The uncannily rejuvenated Everton stole all the attention this past gameweek, with a convincing win over Leicester and a fighting draw against Liverpool on Wednesday night. While James Tarkowski hogged the headlines with his improbable last-gasp equaliser in the derby, I thought his young partner Jarrad Branthwaite produced the better all-round defensive performance in that game; but the real standout was centre-forward Beto, who really seems to have found the 'magic boots' and is now playing with a swaggering confidence. Given that Everton now have a run of pretty soft fixtures until they have to face Liverpool again at the beginning of April, and that he only costs 4.9 million at the moment, I think he's definitely worth considering for a cheap third-seat filler.

I'm also intrigued to see if Ipswich can rouse themselves to fight off the threat of relegation. For me, they are the only club that has done really good transfer business in the window - bringing in three players, creative midfielder Julio Enciso, nippy winger Jaden Philogene, and an excellent goalie in Alex Palmer: players who might - almost certainlly will - start immediately, and perhaps have an immediate impact. The only other new transfer who excites my hopeful curiosity is Brighton's outstanding young forward Evan Ferguson - loaned to West Ham, where he really ought to have an excellent chance of regular starts.

The Sheep are all dumbly bleating about what a great prospect Unai Emery is for the Assistant Manager Chip this week - just because Villa have two games. It's nonsense, of course. Even at home, and with a full-strength squad, you wouldn't fancy Villa to have much of a chance against Liverpool; but particularly not when they might be missing their star striker, and four of their preferred defenders. This is in effect only a 'single gameweek' for them! (And honestly, I fancy Ipswich to have a better chance of getting an upset result against them, than they do against Liverpool.)

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott; the dratted new 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now - and I am urging everyone to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use this silly chip. 

And if you can't bring yourself to do either of those things, please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A little bit of Zen (29)

 

"All 'love' is a form of delusion. But it's a good delusion to have."

GW

We do LOVE our FPL don't we? Even though she treats us meanly most of the time....

Return of THE CULT??

 

Early in the season, I bemoaned how the FPL 'Sheep' had been ridiculously over-enthusiastic about Aston Villa and their players, with picks like Konsa, Martinez, and Duran, in particular, being owned in numbers that were completely counter-rational. (Morgan Rogers you could at least make some sort of case for; but - strong admirer though I am of his talent - I've always felt that his attacking contributions in the Premier League have been too intermittent to justify his FPL selection...)  I described this phenomenon humorously as a 'Cult'!! 

And sure enough, Villa this season have been a pale shadow of the over-performers we marvelled at last year. 

Well, they weren't able to bring in any new talent over the summer, to strengthen their squad depth ahead of their first Champions League campaign (it didn't even exist the last time they qualifed for the senior Eutopean competition in their early '80s glory days; it was still the European Cup) - apart from Ian Maatsen (who's barely earned a game for them) and Rogers (who can't really carry the side on his own, although he tries); while they lost one of their most influential players, midfield stalwart and penalty-taker Douglas Luiz, to Juventus. And in this latest window, they've let go two of their most talented players, Emi Buendia (who'd barely been given a start since returning from a long injury) and Jhon Duran. Also, almost all of their defenders seem to be perpetually injured. And even World Cup-winning goalkeeper Emi Martinez has recently started occasionally looking a bit wonky....  

Teams almost invariably flounder a bit with their first season in European commpetition, failing to adapt to the disruption of usual preparation routines caused by regular midweek football, and lacking the squad depth to rotate enough to cope with the additional toll of injuries and fatigue. That phenomenon has hit particularly hard with Villa this year. They appear to have been saving their best efforts for their Champions League games; but their form in the League has been very up-and-down - and, over the past couple of months, just downright poor.... and recently getting worse. The only reason they're still in the top half of the table, just, is that so many teams who should by rights be above them - Brighton, Brentford, Spurs, Manchester United: perhaps even Everton and Wolves - have also been having a dreadful time for much of the season.

And now - they're without almost all of their preferred starters in defence (Konsa, Pau Torres, Mings, Cash) going into Gameweek 25. And their star striker Ollie Watkins has only just tentatively re-entered training after nearly two weeks out with a worrying hamstring strain.

So,.... no-one with any sense would touch any Aston Villa 'asset' with a bargepole at the moment....

And yet....  Villa players have been some of the most transferred-in over the past two weeks, and their coach Unai Emery is perhaps the leading pick to bet the 'Assistant Manager' chip on this week!

It's purely the mystical allure of the Double Gameweek, of course. The naive assume that having two games must automatically ensure a higher points return. But it does nothing of the kind; the returns are fixture-dependent - and if the fixtures in a double aren't good, plenty of Single Gameweek alternatives will out-perform the doublers.

Villa's GW25 is effectively a 'Single Gameweek', because you can't realistically expect them to get anything against Liverpool - even playing at home, even against a very sub-par Liverpool (and there's no reason to suppose there's anything too wrong with Liverpool's form, just because they unluckily dropped points to a freak late goal in an even more-emtionally-charged-than-usual Merseyside derby last night). And Ipswich - greatly strengthened in the transfer window, and fighting for their Premier League survival - probably won't be a pushover either... not for a team struggling as badly as Villa have been lately.

I think Emery is unlikely to reach 10 points for the 'Assistant Manager' chip this week; and might not reach 5!

Meanwhile, Marco Silva, Vitor Pereira, and - yes - Ipswich's Kieran McKenna have an opportunity to earn the hugely lucrative table-bonus for getting something out of a game against a higher-ranked opponent. The most promising option on that front, though, must surely be Brighton's Fabian Hurzeler - who hosts a recently very flakey-looking Chelsea (who've just lost their star centre-forward to a hamstring injury) on Friday evening: he actually looks to have decent prospects of a table-bonus win, rather than just a very hopeful and speculative chance of a draw....

I don't even want to play this damned new chip, though; I think it ruins the game. I am taking the high road on this by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season. Please consider joining my Boycott.  Or, if exiting the game altogether is too much for you, at least think about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip - and criticise and complain about it online as much as possible.

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Know what you're talking about when you talk of 'risk'

 

"Fortune favours the brave, sometimes; but the foolish, almost never."

GW

It is good to sometimes embrace risk in playing FPL. 

Unforuntately, very few people have any idea how to assess risk. Among the FPL hordes online, I can regularly distinguish two kinds of 'risk': the calculated risk, and the uncalculated risk.

I like to characterise these different types of risk-taking as 'wise gambling'...... and 'foot-shooting'.

Please don't fall victim to the latter!

The OTHER football...

 

I confess to a lifelong weakness for the US interpretation of 'football'. It lacks the artistic grace of the true game, but there is a certain brutal logic to its gameplay which I do find quite compelling. (And it is undeniably tailor-made for watching at home on TV, with its short, intensive bursts of action regularly punctuated by long breaks to allow you to visit the fridge... or the toilet... and even to put together a snack from time to time...)

I became hooked as a youngster back in the late '70s and early '80s; and it soon became an annual ritual of mine to stay up until the wee small hours of Monday morning enjoying the season's climax in the Super Bowl (ah, those were the days when I could still function, sort of, on only 3 or 4 hours' sleep!). Since I moved out to East Asia nearly a quarter of a century ago, I have found the timezone much more congenial for watching the season finale (though finding television coverage, often much more of a challenge!), and my ritual has evolved into embracing the pretext for a once-a-year-indulgence in getting drunk at breakfast time. (I have been mostly a freelancer, so can set my own working schedule. And even in those infrequent spells when I have had some kind of straight job, the Bowl usually conveniently coincides with the Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations - so I've had days off anyway. Oh joy!)

Young Patrick Mahomes has already established himself alongside some of the historic greats like Joe Montana and Peyton Manning, and looks like he might one day start putting the ridiculous records of Tom Brady under pressure. Seeing if he can record another win is worth getting up at 6 in the morning for!!  And my fridge is well-stocked with beer...

A little bit of Zen (28)

 

"Experience is worth nothing if you don't learn the right lessons from it. One moment of insight can be more valuable than a lifetime's experience."

GW

'Picks of the Week' - the new transfers

This is not one of my usual 'Picks of the Week' posts (since I wouldn't necessarily recommend getting any of these players in for FPL - certainly not before we've seen them play for their new teams.... and possibly not ever), but just a few quick observations on what strike me as the most potentially interesting new acquisitions during the just-closed January transfer window.

I already mentioned a couple of weeks back that I thought the pacey Dutch winger Donyell Malen could be a promising addition for Aston Villa, but... his goalscoring seems to have gone off the boil rather with Dortmund this season (not that he's ever been that prolific). And with Jacob Ramsey, Leon Bailey, and Morgan Rogers having been in such good form so far this season, it's difficult to see how he'll find a regular starting place there.

Egyptian forward Omar Marmoush quickly won a lot of attention among the ranks of FPL managers (with his ownership well over 300k already - which seems likely to soon drive his price up a notch, from its not-very-generous opening point of 7.0). Yes, he's very quick, very versatile, has a lot of skills; it looks like his dead-ball delivery could be a handy asset for City. But he's not been a particularly prolific scorer in his career so far (he had quite a good season with Frankfurt last year, and a very good start to this one - but in his younger years, he'd scarcely found the net at all). And I am somewhat surprised that Pep has introduced him to the starting line-up immediately (a 'sign of desperation', some might say...). But City are really still not looking very good. And since Pep will usually only be using 2 players - at most 3 - from Foden, Savinho, Grealish, Doku, Silva, and Bobb (and perhaps Jason McAtee, and maybe even Rico Lewis too), it's very difficult see him being all that high up the list of priorities once everyone's fit again; and even if he is, he's bound to be at least an occasional victim of the notorious 'Pep Roulette'.

Ben Chilwell is a player I've always liked - both in the real world, and as a Fantasy pick - so I'm glad to see him finally escape from Chelsea, to hopefully get a chance to shine again with Palace. But of course, injuries have been a big problem for him in recent years, and he hasn't really played an extended spell of first-team football in four years or more now - so, it might be a bit doubtful if he'll immediately become a starter. And with Tyrick Mitchell already being a very capable left-back for them, and part of a nicely settled back-five, I fear he might just have been acquired as emergency back-up, destined to rarely get a full run-out there. But maybe, just maybe there is a chance that Oliver Glasner envisages making use of him as an outright winger - or perhaps even a creative central midfielder; in which case, he might get in the starting team quite regularly, and might then just possibly enjoy the opportunity to start returning significant FPL points.

Probably the most impressive - and potentially transformative - eve-of-deadline capture was United's sealing of the deal to bring the powerful Danish attacking left-back Patrick Dorgu in from Lecce. They probably needed a new striker and a new central midfielder even more, but they'll have to make the best of what they could get. And Dorgu is, I think, very likely to quickly become a regular starter in the wingback role, probably on his preferred left side. This should give United much more incisive attacking options down that flank; and it would have the additional benefits of allowing Dalot to be swapped over to the right (where, I think, he looks much more comfortable), and Mazraoui to be permanently moved into the back-three (a switch that is all the more needful now that Lisandro Martinez looks to have torn his ACL).

City fans will be hoping that Nico Gonzalez might catalyse an even bigger shake-up for them. At Porto, he has, I believe, mostly been a more progressive sort of midfielder, more of a box-to-box player; but he has a formidable engine and covers the ground very well - so, there is some reason to hope that he can plug some of that huge defensive hole in the middle of the park that Rodri's absence has created for them. He can't be any worse than Kovacic and Gundogan and Silva in that role, anyway....  But I'm doubtful about how far he can fix City's problems on his own.

I suppose I have to mention Marcus Rashford, as this seems to be the move fans have been getting most excited about online. However, as with Malen, I don't really see how he'll fit into the Villa set-up. He's at his best coming in off the left wing to join in attacks; but they already have Rogers and Ramsey (and potentially Malen too) who can do that for them. So, it's more likely he's just going to be used as occasional relief for Ollie Watkins, now that Jhon Duran has taken the Saudi money. And, given that he's hardly played any football this season (and hasn't played well in a season-and-a-half....), I fear it could take him quite a while to get back to full match-sharpness - which would mean that he might be of limited use in deputising for Watkins immediately, if the apparent hamstring strain he suffered at the weekend is likely to keep him out for a few weeks. Indeed, I suspect that if Watkins is unavailable now, Emery might prefer to go with Rogers as a kind of 'false 9' rather than taking a risk on the notoriously flakey and inconsistent Rashford.

A more intriguing prospect, I think, is goalkeeper Alex Palmer, who's just been lured away from West Bromwich Albion by Ipswich. He's looked the best goalkeeper in the Championship for the past couple of seasons. And given what a liability Ari Muric has become this season, and that alternate Christian Walton looks set to be out for a while with a serious muscle injury, Kieran McKenna must surely be intending to make him the default No. 1 straight away. He hasn't been priced in FPL yet, but if he comes in at 4.0, he'd be a very tempting back-up pick. Even at the more likely 4.5, he might possibly get into the conversation. And I have a suspicion that he could prove to be the difference-maker that helps Ipswich stay up. (Although I think the acquisitions of Enciso, Philogene, and Godfrey could have a positive impact too - and these are certainly an encouraging 'statement of intent' from the Ipswich owners that they're determined to make a good fight of it. I don't get that feeling with Southampton or Leicester. And I'm still a bit undecided about Wolves...)

I feel a definite frisson of excitement about Evan Ferguson's loan move to West Ham as well. His development has been derailed by a string of injuries over the past couple of seasons, but he is one of the best young strikers I've seen emerge in the English game for many, many years: big, strong, quite quick, excellent touch, calm under pressure, full range of finishing - pretty much a complete forward. He's worked under Graham Potter before at Brighton; so, hopefully there's a good personal relationship there that could help him to rebuild confidence (if he's lost any; he hasn't struck me as the type of guy to be much troubled by mental demons). And with Fullkrug perpetually injured and Antonio out for the season, there does seem to be a good chance that he might become a regular starter as the No. 9. However, Potter, as we know, is a compulsive tinkerer, and he has been tempted to try out Mohammed Kudus and Lucas Paqueta as 'false 9s' in the absence of any recognised striker being available for him recently. And Jarrod Bowen can play as a central striker too; though he's much better coming in off the wing. Priced at only 5.5 million, I think there's a fair chance that Ferguson might become the top budget forward pick in the latter part of the season, if he starts regularly and can stay fit.

But the big news of this window for me is Tottenham's loan signing of the 19-year-old French forward Mathys Tel. Yes, he's very young, very inexperienced, and hasn't yet established a prolific scoring record... hasn't found the net at all yet this season; however, given that almost all of his appearances for Bayern have been off the bench, his 16 goals over the previous two seasons have come from a fairly small number of minutes - and some of them have been quite breathtaking. The kid is a sensational talent. He can play off the wing or through the middle, so there are a number of ways he could get into the side. However, even with Solanke ruled out for another month or so, Spurs do have quite an abundance of attacking talent at their disposal: Son, Johnson, Richarlison, Kulusevski, Maddison, and young Mikey Moore. So, I fear he might get limited minutes, be used - initially at least - mainly as an impact sub. But I think it's very possible that he might have enough of an impact to graduate before long to a regular start.  [I'm glad to see my mate Adam Clery over at FourFourTwo agrees with me about this lad's prospects.]

So.... not the busiest transfer window, by a long way; but it did - belatedly - throw up some intriguing new FPL possibilities.

The biggest news, though, is surely Arsenal - being 'linked' with some big names, like Zubimendi and Gyokeres (again), and Osimhen and Sesko,..... and just about every decent forward in the Premier League.... and failing to land anyone. Oh dear.

Luck-o-Meter (24)

 

Dear, oh dear - it's obviously going to be Liverpool's title this year, isn't it? I like Slot's side; but it does annoy me when I see them getting results from games which they really don't deserve, when they have to rely on everything breaking against the opponents and the referee making every single call in their favour. This gives me an uncomfortable presntiment that this is going to be a particularly atrocious week for the quality of officiating.

Nottingham Forest bounced back in style from last week's surprise defeat at Bournemouth, handing out a drubbing themselves to a lacklustre Brighton. They might easily have had a lot more than their final tally of 7, with Wood in particular missing some excellent chances early on, appearing to shy away from rather than stretch towards a fizzed ball across the goalmouth from Elanga after a quarter of an hour, and having the ball nicked off his toe by a great recovery tackle from Minteh moments later, when the goal had seemed about to be at his mercy. There were a number of other near-misses too, with Neco Williams especially unlucky to see his fierce low shot from distance scud off the outside of the post. Wood's hattrick is a hard blow to all of those who sacrificed him in FPL this week to bring in Gakpo - or Ndiaye - for the Double Gameweek. It added insult to injury for Hurzeler and his team that goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen somehow passed the ball straight to Forest substitute Jota Silva, gifting him a seventh goal at the start of added-on time.

It's hard to divine just why Brighton are so bad at the moment, but.... they're heading towards the bottom end of the table fast. To be fair, though, Brighton did have a number of good chances themselves in the first half, and perhaps the game might have developed differently if one or two of those had worked out; Welbeck was very unlucky that his 'Geoff Hurst goal' crashed off the underside of the bar and bounced back into play having only crossed 80% or 90% of the goal-line - though Sels's very slight fingertip touch on the effort was probably just enough to divert it on to the crossbar rather than going straight in (presumably one of the 6 saves he was credited with in the game). The only bothersome piece of officiating in this one was the inordinate amount of time it took to adjudicate a 'possible offside' on Wood's first goal - though he was actually well on, by nearly half a yard, which was fairly evident to the naked eye... but VAR has to go through its whole rigmarole for every decision, and it seems there was some kind of technical hold-up with 'drawing the lines' in this instance?? Oh dear. Well, Hurzeler seemed to think Brighton deserved a penalty when the back of Welbeck's head clashed with Milenkovic's face inside the box during the later part of the first-half, but he was the only person in the ground to believe that (well, apart from Sky's commentator??); it was quite obviously an accidental collision - if anything, the contact was initiated by Welbeck himself, backing into the defender. Brighton had much more of a case to object to Forest's sixth goal, when Neco Williams lashed the loose ball home from 8 yards out, after it had briefly touched both of Sangare's arms as he'd fallen on top of it. This is what I would call a 'victory for common sense', as the Forest player was clearly trying to pull his arms out of the way of the ball, and the contacts were very light and fleeting and had absolutely no material impact at all; the 'handball' was not deliberate and had no effect on the play. However, under the current rules, it plainly was a 'handball' - in the lead-up to a goal, no leeway is supposed to be allowed to such factors; so, Brighton can feel a bit aggrieved about that one. (They're probably a bit miffed about the penalty decision against Lamptey too - but you really can't wrap both of your arms around a player to try to restrict his movement prior to a corner.)  The Brighton manager got himself booked for his excessive protestations about the Welbeck clash of heads, but at least he was decent enough not to whinge about any of these incidents in his press interviews afterwards.

Bournemouth were desperately unlucky not to get at least a draw out of their home clash against League leaders Liverpool: they were much the better side for most of the match. Alisson had to make a number of sharp saves in the game, including a superb reaction stop to keep out a near-post deflection off one of his own defenders in the dying minutes. Antoine Semenyo smashed a ferocious early effort against the crossbar. Then David Brooks's superb half-volley finish that would have equalised before half-time was - after another interminable VAR delay - ruled out for Kerkez having apparently been 'offside' by about half a boot when he broke down the flank to supply the cutback (a very harsh call: one of those that is too close to adjudicate with the naked eye, and which, when done with video playback, depends inordinately on exactly which freeze-frame you choose to look at.... and how much motion-blur there is on it; I've said many times before that offside decisions should not be made on such tight margins - it's completely unrealistic to expect that they can be accurate and authoritiative, with the current state of technology available). Alexander-Arnold - who once again had a bit of a dog of a game - was very lucky to get away with stretching out his arm in an apparent attempt to control Ouattara's overhit cross midway through the second-half; but the ref and VAR apparently thought it was impossible to tell if he had played the ball off his chest or the inside of his upper arm and declined to award a penalty. Shortly afterwards, substitute Marcus Tavernier unleashed a savage curling shot against the upright.... and the recently immaculate Justin Kluivert somehow contrived to blaze wide of an open goal as he pounced on the rebound. Really, I can't readily recall a game in which so many things went against the home side, where the final result appeared so unjust.

Moreover, Liverpool should really have had two players sent off: Macallister for a wild whiff at a high ball which ended up just kicking Brooks high on the inner thigh (no, there wasn't ultimately much contact; but it was a reckless challenge, which might have endangered the oppponent, and he got nowhere near the ball; there was so little reason for the attempt that it really looked as if it might just have been a deliberate, petulant assault, and therefore well worthy of a straight red card - let alone the second yellow it should inevitably have been), and shortly afterwards the great Virgil Van Dijk, betraying how rattled he was getting by the home side's relentless attacks, committed a most uncharacteristic piece of thuggery in shoulder-charging Ouattara in the back of the head; again, for any other player that would have been an obvious straight red card, but Virgil has become so revered in our game that he gets cut a lot of slack on incidents like this (it really is impossible to see how that wasn't at least a yellow card). Liverpool's penalty for the opening goal was extremely soft too: I've looked at all the replays dozens of times, and I still can't see any clear contact by Lewis Cook on Gakpo's heels as he runs across behind him; you can, however, clearly see that Gakpo's feet tapped each other, causing him to lose balance. Now, there might have been some contact by Cook, but it must have been very, very slight, and it was not clearly visible (the only thing that makes me suspect some culpability on the Bournemouth defender's part is his lack of protest about the decision; but VAR and the referee are not supposed to take such secondary indicators into consideration); and, especially when the attacking player has clearly tripped himself up, we more often see penalty shouts of this type not given. I do not see how this reached the threshold of being a 'clear and obvious error' by the referee that VAR could feel justified in overruling; and I don't know why VAR was able to just make this decision itself, rather than referring it back to the referee for a second look - the protocols on how these decisions get made are still very unclear, seemingly inconsistent. Yes, Salah's second was a wondergoal, but.... Liverpool really didn't play well enough to deserve anything out of this game - and they needed all the decisions to go in their favour.  [An awful lot of FPL managers punted their Triple Captain chip on the Egyptian King this week. It didn't look a very sensible choice, given how tough both of Liverpool's fixtures looked; and they really didn't deserve to get this fortunate with their gamble, Super-Mo notching a massive 16-point haul in the first of his two games. However, the alternate strategy of playing Bench Boost on a bunch of Everton substitutes - my own preference this week - looks set to return far more points. And Salah, I think, is still likely to return even bigger points at least a few more times this season - possibly even in the next Gameweek, if that also turns out to be a double.]

You might have thought that Leicester's confidence might be buoyed by their win over Spurs last week; and by the return of their first-choice keeper Hermansen; and Vardy can always be dangerous, given half a chance. While Everton have shown absolutely zero awareness of the whereabouts of the opposition goal for most of this season. So, this was a game that you felt might well have gone either way, but was most likely to end in a sterile low-scoring or goalless draw. But the visitors at Goodison fell apart immediately - demoralised by Pickford's long ball over the top putting Doucoure clean in on goal after barely 10 seconds (the fourth quickest goal in Premier League history, apparently!). From then on, the home side appeared to be able to score almost at will. In fact, they might well have had even more; should, in fact, have had a penalty when another piece of dubious refereeing - and the usual cowardly refusal to intervene by VAR - denied them the decision when Westergaard clumsily clattered into Beto and sent him sprawling. [Pickford and Doucoure were two of the players I recently tipped as possiby worth acquiring for this double gameweek. Oh, and Ndiaye too! It's not often my recommendations are so swiftly and so spectacularly vindicated!]

Kieran McKenna really has the restoration of Ari Muric in goal to blame for Ipswich letting more vital points slip away from them at Portman Road, to bottom-of-the-table Southampton. This change was apparently forced by Christian Walton breaking down with a groin injury this week; but the Kosovan keeper had looked so shakey when he was starting earlier in the season that there surely must have been a strong case for giving a chance to the No. 3, Cieran Slicker. Joe Aribo's early opener, though a well-struck volley, went straight through the hapless Muric. Ipswich settled themselves well after this unwelcome setback, and it was pretty much one-way traffic towards the Southampton end thereafter - although the hosts couldn't create many clearcut chances, and were only able to convert one of those they did. Then in the closing minutes, Southampton managed to mount another attack, and Sugawara's firm shot from the edge of the area was tamely parried by Muric straight into the path of the lurking centre-forward Onuacho to hand the visitors the game.

Fulham did well to weather the early storm at Newcastle; the game could easily have been out of their reach after 20 miutes or so. But they reorganised and re-energised themselves at the break, and the home side became strangely sloppy and open in the second half, inviting the visitors to hope for redemption. If Tonali's screamer of a 30-yard half-volley had gone into the corner rather than crashing against the angle of post and bar, or if Livramento's good cross-shot hadn't been kept out by Leno making a superb save with his oustretched foot, there surely would have been no way back for Fulham. And Newcastle should really have taken the lead a second time even in that weaker second half when Willock somehow missed a sitter, taking a fresh-air shot at Isak's perfect square ball in to the near-post. They had a further chance a few minutes later, when Isak seemed to be allowed all day to size up a curling effort of his own - but then smacked it against exactly the same corner of the woodwork as Tonali had done. At least the refereeing seemed sound in this one; the sole major injustice of the game being Anthony Gordon's somehow not being credited with his assist for the first goal (yes, it deflected off a defender, but not substantially - it still made it to a teammate much as intended; we've generally seen such deflections ignored under a more generous approach to awarding 'assists' this year). Jacob Murphy might also be considered a little lucky not to have an own-goal registered against him; it wasn't clear that Raul's original shot for the equaliser had been on target until it cannoned off Murphy's legs.

It has become depressingly predictable that Villa are going to look a yard-and-a-half off-the-pace every time they have to play in the League following a midweek European game. A much improved Wolves were stoked by Bellegarde's superb early breakthrough, and after that, looked like their swift counter-attacks could cut through the visitors at will. Villa made four changes at half-time, which enabled them to assert themselves much more, but Wolves also proved able to defend staunchly. It was not until added-on time that Cunha managed to put the result beyond doubt with a swaggering culmination to his solo breakaway. However, Villa may be rightly unhappy that half-time substitute Donyell Malen's apparent equaliser was ruled out for an 'offside'  by a player who was not in any way 'interfering with play' - and it's not clear if VAR intervened to confirm that decision, or simply sat on its hands and played dumb. (Just a few minutes later, Malen had a fierce shot well parried by Sa, but the play was again stopped by the linesman's flag - again for a very narrow offside against a player who was not remotely involved in the play. What gives??)

Spurs took a valuable step forward in performance level, at long last: they still didn't look very creative or dangerous moving forwards, but played with much more energy and determination, and more cohesion at the back. Nevertheless, to say that the result flattered them would be a huge understatement: Brentford were much the better side overall, and completely dominated the second-half, but somehow just couldn't quite find a goal: Kinsky made a sharp save from Norgaard's crisp volley, the recently impeccable Wissa somehow flicked a header off the top of the bar when he had the whole goal at his mercy, and substitute Carvalho's ambitious overhead effort was scrambled to safety out of the goalmouth by Spence in the last few minutes. Roerslev's sudden departure for the Bundesliga further weakens an already very thinly-stretched defensive roster at Brentford; and having to put in second-choice keeper Valdimarsson probably further unsettled things at the back. Spurs' early breakthrough was a bizarre mix-up, with the Icelandic goalie - perhaps dazzled by the low sun - somehow blocked from getting to a fairly innocuous near-post corner by his own players, and seeing the ball deflect into the net off Janelt's back. And the clincher - a late breakaway finished off by Pape Sarr, of all people - didn't come until deep into added-on time. However, on the other side of the equation, Spurs really should have had a penalty for Collins's cheeky little shove in the back of Mikey Moore - an incident which VAR appeared to give no proper consideration to.

I worry that Amorim's constant experimentation at United is just becoming tiresome and self-harming. For this one, he was again giving Yoro a run-out in the back-three (who's still looking really a bit out of his depth at this level, and surely can't be preferred to De Ligt, unless there's some fitness issue with him we don't know about), playing Mazraoui at wing-back instead of in the back-three (where he really looks better) and putting him on the right and Dalot on the left (when, to me, they look better the other way around), dropping Fernandes back into deep midfield (obviously not his best position), and - most bizarrely - spurning both Zirkzee and Hojlund up front in favour of trying out Kobbie Mainoo as a 'false 9' (that really didn't work at all). One or two of those changes might have been worth a try while keeping the overall structure and selection as intact as possible; but introducing mutliple - non-ideal! - changes at one time was asking for trouble. If he carries on like this, I think the 'dead pool' betting on whether Amorim can survive the season will be hotting up. To be fair, this attacking set-up did have its moments: Diallo (invariably their best player these days) setting up Mainoo to drive a shot against the post early on, and efforts from Fernandes and Ugarte drawing good saves from Henderson. But United regularly looked wide open through the middle, and suffered more and more from Palace's quick attacks as the game went on; Mateta enjoyed several chances through the game, and it was no big surprise when he eventually managed to convert a couple. And Harry Maguire was perhaps just a little lucky to escape being given two yellow cards for committing two silly fouls on Mateta within a few seconds of each other - and then complaining so vociferously about being given one!

City's complete collapse in the second half at The Emirates was hardly a big surprise; I wrote a couple of weeks ago that any talk of a Pep Renaissance was premature, misguided. There were additional problems here to add to their woes: Dias missing again, Ortega having to come in for Ederson (supposedly a minor training-ground injury problem - but one naturally suspects that in fact he's the subject of transfer discussions, or has perhaps just had some kind of falling-out with Pep) probably disrupts the communication and cohesion among the back players, Stones is being rushed back into action before being fully match-sharp again... and De Bruyne was apparently only fit enough to provide a token cameo at the end, when it was too late to save the game. City had their moments: Raya had to make a couple of very sharp reaction saves in the first half from a Gvardiol header and a Savinho shot deflected between a defender's legs; Marmoush was providing some excellent service from corners (but Arsenal are rarely vulnerable from corners...); and they put together a very slick move to grab an equaliser barely 10 minutes into the second half, when Savinho found himself some space in the box, and chipped a high cross towards the far post, where Haaland had, for once, gone up against Saliba rather than Gabriel (who pretty much kept him in his pocket the whole game), and the Frenchman had - most uncharacteristically - taken a nap and allowed the big Norwegian to step in front of him, and thus be allowed a free header. Moreover, Havertz blazing wide of an open goal when he had the chance to put the Gunners two up early in the game had looked as if it might be a confidence-sapping turning point for the home side (curiously, Pep looked even more dismayed by Havertz'z blunder than Mikel!). But City's sniff of a chance to get something from the game evaporated immediately when Partey's deflected drive from outside the box took the lead back in under a minute after the Haaland goal... and then just 5 minutes later an excellent shot from teenage full-back Lewis-Skelly put the match pretty much out of reach. After that, City fell apart, and looked as if they might concede on every counter-attack - which has become a familiar story over the last three months or more. An enjoyable game (if you're not a City fan, at least); and - for once - no contentious refereeing decisions!

On Monday night, Chelsea managed to muscle their way back into 4th place in the League with an expected win over West Ham, but they made heavy weather of it, and there wasn't really a lot to take encouragement from in their performance. The victory might have been, should have been a lot more comfortable - if Madueke hadn't put his shot just beyond the far post when played in behind by Jackson early in the game, or if Areola hadn't been able to fly across his goal to fingertip Palmer's perfect curling free-kick away to safety.... or if Levi Colwill had not gifted West Ham a first-half lead by playing a square pass across the back directly into the path of a grateful Jarrod Bowen. Owners of Robert Sanchez will no doubt be gutted that Maresca has finally seen fit to drop him in favour of Filip Jorgensen (but that's been on the cards for a while, shouldn't be any big surprise; I've been predicting this change, lobbying for it, for two or three months, at least); and anyone who still owns Nicolas Jackson (I have to plead guilty on that...) might be alarmed that he was withdrawn in favour of Marc Guiu short of the hour. There was yet another VAR controversy here, when they took a huge amount of time to check the first Chelsea goal from Neto - but apparently only bothered to rule out a possible interference by the offside Guiu, and overlooked the fact that Colwill had clearly barged Bowen to the ground earlier in the build-up. And I really don't see how Palmer's winner is deemed an own-goal; the touch off Wan-Bissaka's shin as he attempted to block was almost immediate - so, it really is impossible to judge accurately what the path of the ball might otherwise have been; but damn, Palmer was surely shooting for the far post, and Palmer doesn't often miss - it is very, very harsh to deny an attacking player a goal in circumstances like this (and I hope the FA might yet revisit the decision).

'Form' is a funny thing: at the start of the season, Spurs beating Brentford wouldn't have been at all surprising, but now it very much is; while United and City getting beaten is, sadly, not at all unexpected any more. Liverpool's win over Bournemouth was undeserved. And the victories by Southampton, Wolves, and - especially - Fulham were extremely unexpected. And while wins for Forest and Everton against inferior opposition might have been predicted, the massive margins of victory clearly couldn't have been. So, this gameweek's results have really caused a lot of mayhem for FPL managers. Although by the end of the gameweek (in 10 days' time!) the 'Team of the Week' will presumably be heavily populated with Liverpool and Everton players after they've played twice (and anyone who may have a huge performance in the Chelsea v West Ham game tonight!), at the moment only Pickford, Salah, and Wood would have been among the predicted highest returners: names like Munoz, Richards, and Neco Williams, Wolves's Bellegarde, even Palace's Mateta (in what should have been a much tougher game for them) could not really have been expected to feature.

There has been an abundance of dubious refereeing this week, with other games throwing up wrongly allowed or disallowed goals, missed red cards, and at least two penalties that obviously should have been given. But, honestly, there were so many bad decisions - and instances of general 'outrageous fortune' for the home side! - in the Bournemouth game alone that I think this week merits at least a  9 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'. 

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  That damned new chip is in play now. So, I urge you all to quit the game in protest as soon as possible; or at least commit to refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip, and criticise and complain about it online as much as possible.

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW24

It looks as though we've again picked up a few new injury doubts from final round of midweek games in the group phase of this year's European competitions.

The torpid transfer market is finally 'hotting up' ever so slightly, but so far the news is still more about likely leavers than big new arrivals; and most of it is only at the level of gossip and speculation so far.

The main excitement of the week, of course, is the Double Gameweek for Everton and Liverpool (rescheduled from early December when the original fixture date was crashed by Storm Darragh). Alas, the League's unfathomable decision to count this rearranged game as part of Gameweek 24 (although it is 10 days and two different Cup competition rounds after it!!) instead of Gameweek 25 (which it is immediately adjacent to) means that Liverpool are facing Bournemouth along with Everton in the same gameweek, rather than the much more enticing prospect of Wolves and Everton that we'd all been eagerly expecting, and so it's really not a very exciting double gameweek. Nevertheless, huge numbers of managers are punting one of their three bonus chips on this week. Here are my thoughts on the options there.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 24?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

David Raya missed the midweek game against Girona with an unspecified problem, and might be a doubt again this weekend. (Neto will presumably deputise for him in the Arsenal goal again.)

Tyrone Mings limped off with another knee problem last week, but it's being said it's nothing too serious and should only keep him out for a few weeks. And Matty Cash came off with a muscle problem in the midweek game against Celtic, and is likely now to miss a few weeks.

Pervis Estupinan and Solly March dropped out last weekend with muscle problems, and continue to be  doubts.

Eberechi Eze has picked up a foot injury and will now be out for a while.

Ipswich midifelder Wes Burns and Everton midfielder Orel Mangala will both be out for the season after suffering serious knee injuries last weekend.

Harry Wilson suffered a stress fracture in his foot against Forest last week and will probably be missing until April.

Darwin Nunez missed the midweek game against Feyenoord because of illness, and might not be fit enough to be involved this weekend.

James Maddison missed last week's game against Leicester because of a calf problem, which seems likely to keep him sidelined for a least a couple more weeks. And Radu Dragusin picked up a knee problem in Thursday's win over Elfsborg which will keep him out this week at least. (Micky van de Ven was able to play in that one, but Postecoglou doesn't fancy his chances of being able to last a whole match just yet - so, Spurs could be serious short of first-team defenders for the next game.)

Calvert-Lewin and Strand Larsen are both likely to miss a few weeks at least with hamstring strains.

And Lucas Paqueta has been reported to be struggling this week with a groin strain.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Wolves's Joao Gomes is serving a one-match ban after receiving two yellow cards in the game against Arsenal last week. Arsenal's Myles Lewis-Skelly, however, has had his red card in that game overturned on appeal by his club, and will be able to play this week.

Emi Buendia and Jhon Duran look to be set to leave Aston Villa, so will probably not be involved for them again (though they've not been involved that much anyway...)

As I'd anticipated for a little while, Lukasz Fabianski appears to have lost the West Ham goalkeeper's jersey to Alphonse Areola again (that might be rather concerning for the nearly 17% of managers who owned the Pole as a cheap back-up keeper who was actually starting).

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Well, injury-ravaged Spurs are still looking very much like a team to AVOID! They couldn't even beat Leicester last week, for heaven's sake!

And despite a surprisingly comfortable win against somewhat-in-the-doldrums Chelsea, City are still looking deeply unimpressive to me. Foden, Haaland, and Gvardiol look to be in good form, but the team as a whole is a bit of a shambles. As Pep himself dolefully put it in a post-match interview, "Without the ball, we are one of the worst teams."

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, Josko Gvardiol is starting to look like he might score in almost every game. I was very sceptical whether he could possibly be that productive at the start of the season, but he has intermittently given hints that perhaps he could; and lately, those hints have been becoming stronger (just a pity that he - and City - still aren't really that good at any of the defensive stuff!). He is the only City player I'd currently even consider touching with my bargepole.

And the entire Bournemouth team, of course - especially Dango Ouattara, who just might prove to be one of the best-value goalscorers for the remainder of the season.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott; the dratted new 'Assistant Manager' chip has gone live this week - and I am urging everyone to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use this silly chip. 

And if you can't bring yourself to do either of those things, please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip