How to use the Assistant Manager chip

 

Setting aside my profound antipathy towards this silly new gimmick chip for a moment... I thought I'd put together a few key thoughts on what you need to consider if you are going to use this chip.

1)  Since the adoption of an 'assistant manager' involves paying a transfer fee, you may have to use one or two transfers to juggle your squad to free up the money (it's not very much money; but it has the potential to be a bothersome inconvenience). Because an 'assistant manager' is treated as part of your per-club player quota, you may also need to make transfers to get rid of a third player from a club that you want the manager from. And you will almost certainly need to give yourself the flexibility of changing your manager during each week that the chip is active, potentially costing you 2 more transfers. Thus, you really ought to try to get as many Free Transfers as possible saved up (under a new rule this season, you can now bank up to 5 FTs at one time) to help you deal with these issues when you decide you want to use the chip. It is also probably worth trying to avoid using the 'Assistant Manager' chip in the run-up to one of the season's two expected 'blank' Gameweeks (GW29 and GW34, when a number of League fixtures will be cancelled because of Cup ties on the same weekend), since you might also need a lot of saved Free Transfers to negotiate those. Similarly, for a major 'turn' in fixtures, when the difficulty of the upcoming fixture sequence shifts drastically for a number of teams at around the same time, you may want to have as many Free Transfers in hand as possible to be able to make multiple squad changes in a short space of time.

2)  The so-called 'table bonus' (for obtaining a result against a side ranked 5 or more places above you in the League at the start of the Gameweek) is HUGE: it is the most important aspect of the 'Assistant Manager' rules, and has to be the main focus of strategy for this chip. (It's worth 10 extra points for a win, 5 extra points for a draw. Absent that bonus, you only get 10 points for a 2-0 or 4-1 win. Even a 0-0 or 1-1 draw with a 'table bonus' can be worth as much as a win without one. So, one successful use of the chip to obtain this bonus is likely to be worth as much as or slightly more than backing a top manager for two wins in a double gameweek. If you can pull off the 'table bonus' twice in a double gameweek, that can be some very big points.)

3)  Unfortunately, it's impossible to know exactly which teams are going to be 5 or more places above your target 'Assistant Manager' team until the end of the preceding gameweek; particularly so this season, when the majority of the table is so tightly packed together that it is very possible for most teams to rise or fall several places in only one or two weeks. With the 'Assistant Manager' being in play for three weeks, you can't expect to know which teams/managers will be most likely to produce good returns in its 2nd and 3rd weeks when you first activate it (and, of course, there may be changes in form or injury troubles affecting the picture too). Also, it's rather easier for players to maintain consistent form over an extended period, and sometimes to do well even when their team isn't. Team form, by contrast, can lurch very suddenly from one extreme to the other, sometimes even from week to week (ahem, Newcastle). But even more importantly for this chip, team form is much more fixture-dependent; a good, in-form attacking player can score goals against almost anyone, but teams mostly settle at a level - where they're likely to beat certain teams and likely to lose to others. Moreover, the fixtures rarely or never line up obligingly - so that you have a run of three fixtures that all look like likely wins (and include a double gameweek, and a few likely opportunities to earn a 'table bonus') for the same club. Unlike our best players (most of the time!), the same manager can't be expected to have anything like the best chance of the best return in successive gameweeks. This is the reason why it is almost certainly going to be essential to change your 'assistant manager' every week in order to derive maximum value from the chip - or at least to be able to keep open your option to do so.

4)  There is also an 'opportunity cost' involved in choosing a manager from a top club. You might well be trebled up on players from that club. And whenever you choose to take three players from the same club (something better avoided, if possible, because it does expose you to a risk of very heavy impacts from occasional bad results or an unexpected postponement), it's because you regard all three of them as extremely valuable. If you're picking a manager who cannot earn a 'table bonus' in that gameweek, the most he can earn for you with this chip is 10-12 points (and, of course, it can be much less); that is likely to be not much better - and potentially rather worse - than you might hope to get from any of his players. At the very best, his advantage over one of those players is likely to be uncertain and only fairly marginal. Plus, of course, there's the possible inconvenience of having to sell a player from that club to make room for your manager, and/or the disadvantage of losing the opportunity to bring in a third player from that club while you have that manager; and the fact that this can cost you additional transfers (you'll probably want to get that third player straight back in when you finish using this manager....). By contrast, choosing a manager from a club from whom you'd never want more than 1 or 2 players - if any - represents a 'pure profit' on the use of this chip; there are no concerns about needing to use up extra transfers to make room, or worries about a player you've been forced to drop or go without potentially out-performing your manager. (Of course, you won't have lost all of the dropped player's points, because you will have brought someone in to replace him, who might have done very nearly as well; but having to drop a key squad player to accommodate your manager pick does undercut the manager's value to some extent - particularly in a double gameweek [when these players may be part only a small number having the advantage of playing twice, and are thus likely to outscore almost everyone else]. To correctly identify the true value of the 'Assistant Manager' chip's return, you should calculate if there's a surplus of points earned by the third player from the manager's club who you might have chosen over the points you got from the player you have instead of him.... and deduct that points difference from the AM score for the gameweek.)  For these reasons, managers from top clubs do not represent 'good value' for this chip.

5)  Because, like the other bonus chips - Triple Captain and Bench Boost - the 'Assistant Manager' chip can potentially gain a big points-lift from being played in a Double Gameweek, there is a further 'opportunity cost' to be evaluated when you decide on a DGW chip use. In the upcoming DGW24, for instance, many people are currently favouring playing their Triple Captain on Mo Salah; if this works out, it could well be worth 20-30 extra points for the gameweek. However, setting up a bench with doubling Everton players and playing Bench Boost could potentially bring you 30 or 40 extra points, or even more. It is very unlikely that either of this week's double-fixture managers, Arne Slot or David Moyes, can reach 20 points (though Moyes at least has the theoretical chance to pick up a 'table bonus' against Liverpool, which would boost his return substantially; and he may have the better prospect of a comfortable win against Leicester).

6)  Because the 'Assistant Manager' chip has an extended activation period of three gameweeks, rather than just the usual one gameweek, you need to be very wary of playing it at any period when you might potentially want to call on one of your other chips. This would certainly include any likely blank and double gameweeks (until you've finalised a desired 'chip strategy' for making the best use of all your bonus chips, in the light of the likely Double Gameweek opportunities), when you might need Free Hit or Wildcard in order to put out a full eleven for a week with a lot of postponements, or want to use the Triple Captain or Bench Boost to take advantage of extra fixtures in a gameweek. Arguably, you might also want to steer clear of using it in February, while there is still an elevated risk of sudden postponements due to bad weather.

In summary:

Focus on the possibility of extra points for the 'table bonus', not just secure wins; look for managers/teams and fixture runs that look like they could offer good opportunities to win some of these bonuses.

Consider fixture runs for multiple clubs, not just one, within the period of possible chip activation - and be prepared to change your manager selection every week, if necessary.

Be ready to take risks. You're going to have to bet on low-ranking clubs, clubs who've performed poorly and/or inconsistently for much of the season, to have the chance of getting these 'table bonuses'. There's a very good chance they'll often let you down. But if they don't, it will be worth it!

Beware the managers from the top teams. It might be easier to predict their results, but missing out on the 'table bonuses' is a massive disadvantage. And there are further risks involved in having to go without one of their players - who has the potential to score more points than the manager (and very probably will at least slightly outscore another player you have instead of them, especially in a Double Gameweek - which will detract from your 'Assistant Manager's contribution).

Carefully weigh up the merits of the Double Gameweek opportunities for each of your bonus chips: Triple Captain or Bench Boost will be better options for some of them.

Try to stock up as many Free Transfers as you can, to make activating and using the 'Assistant Manager' chip as painless as possible. (And try to avoid using the chip when you need to save up Free Transfers for other reasons, such as a big 'turn' in fixture difficulties for several teams, or a looming Blank Gameweek.)

Be careful about using the 'Assistant Manager' chip in a period when you might want to use one of the other chips instead - particularly around the Blank and Double Gameweeks. (You might have chosen to use it to take advantage of a Double Gameweek; but if you've played the chip a week or two ahead, you can't change your mind if circumstances relating to the attractiveness of that Double Gameweek change. And remember that using the chip may create an extra drain on your stock of saved transfers - something you'd like to avoid in the last few gameweeks before a Blank or a Double.)

This damned new chip is, of course, in play now. But, rather than playing it,.... I urge you all to quit the game in protest as soon as possible; or at least commit to refusing to use the chip. And please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible.

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A little bit of Zen (27)

 

"Success is not final, failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts."

Winston Churchill

Picks of the Week - for Double Gameweek 24

 

Now that the postponed Merseyside derby has been rearranged for the evening of Wednesday 12th February, and - bizarrely! - that's been attached to Gameweek 24, even though it occurs 10 days after all the other fixtures, instead of Gameweek 25 which it is immediately adjacent to....  it is looking tempting to load up on additional Liverpool/Everton players to take advantage of the fact they'll have two chances to claim points in the same gameweek. Who are the most tempting picks?

Well, obviously everyone has Mo Salah, anyway. Other Liverpool attacking assets are not looking so tempting for this one, as both games are away from home, and against two teams who are usually very strong defensively (Bournemouth have the best home form in the league, and have been starting to look devastating in attack as well in the last few games; and 'upsets' are always on the cards in a derby game). Moreover, there's perpetual doubt about who the favoured starters might be. That has been allayed recently, with Gakpo hitting good goalscoring form, Jota being sidelined with injury again, Chiesa not yet having been fully integrated into the squad and seemingly almost always carrying some sort of injury, and Slot admitting that it's difficult to make effective use of Darwin Nunez when Liverpool find themselves up against a 'low block' most of the time; the preferred trident is, for now, fairly obviously Gakpo-Diaz-Salah. However, this is a bit rough on Luis Diaz, who is much more at home on the left flank than working in the middle, and doesn't often look that much of a goal threat when played as the No. 9. Moreover, both he and Gakpo are very likely to have to share minutes with Nunez and Chiesa, and can expect to be subbed off quite early, even if they start both games. 

Because of his fine recent form (5 goals and 4 assists in the last 7 games), I would consider Cody Gakpo as an additional attacking asset for the double. But you have to consider that Chris Wood, Alexander Isak, and Yoane Wissa also have very promising fixtures this week - so, even with two opportunities to score, Gakpo might not in fact do as well as any of these, and using transfers to replace one of them with Gakpo would be a bit extravagant, if you only fancy him as a short-term hold. (It was announced the next day that, if they reach the Final of the League Cup, Liverpool's GW29 fixture against Villa would be moved forward rather than backward, to Wednesday 19th February. Of course, they have to get past Spurs in the second leg of the semi-final first. And it is uncertain whether the League would attach that midweek make-up fixture to GW25 or GW26. But there is a very good chance that Liverpool will now be doubling in successive weeks, or at least twice very close together, so that will probably tip the balance in favour of bringing in a player like Gakpo.)  

The other Liverpool option I'd consider - a bit more left-field, a bit more 'differential' - is attacking midfielder Dominik Szoboszlai, who has been looking in great form recently; and who, with Curtis Jones currently carrying an injury, is probably a little bit less of a minutes-risk than Gakpo or Diaz. (As above, I probaby wouldn't have fancied him just for these two fairly unpromising GW24 fixtures; but the possibility that he might get a double in GW25 or GW26 makes him a much more attractive punt.)

However, I think that, in what should be quite tight, cagey games, Liverpool defensive assets are to be preferred. Trent Alexander-Arnold has been looking more threatening in attacking situations recently, and obviously has an edge as a prospect for additional contributions. However, he hasn't been delivering these nearly as frequently or consistently this year, and I really don't think he earns his extra transfer cost. I prefer Ibrahima Konate over either Virgil Van Dijk or Alexander-Arnold, because he'll probably return the same points for considerably less money; although there is a slight worry that he is reportedly still suffering occasionally with a long-standing problem in one of his knees, and may sometimes need a rest when the fixtures stack up close together. I think I'd be willing to take the chance on him here, though, as the weekend game preceding the second fixture is only an FA Cup tie against Plymouth, for which many regular first-teamers can probably be safely omitted.  Robertson and Tsimikas have been sharing minutes a bit recently, so both are a risky choice for the double; however, they - or perhaps even Trent's understudy, Conor Bradley - might be worth a punt if you're chasing that elusive 'differential' advantage.

The top pick for me, though, would be goalkeeper Alisson - who has a pretty good chance of two clean sheets... or at least of making lots of saves, if these opponents do prove more dangerous than Liverpool fans hope/expect.... which will give him an edge over the defenders. Moreover, if you can afford a premium keeper, I'd say Alisson is the best choice for the rest of the season. Liverpool's defensive record has been outstanding; and he's very likely to have at least two more double gameweeks, by way of reaching the League Cup Final and the FA Semi-Final.

Similarly with Everton, they have had a mostly very solid defence this season, but have struggled badly for goals themselves, so I would favour defensive assets. Vitalii Mykolenko would be the preferred option from the back-four, I think, because of his potential to offer an occasional attacking contribution as well; though the central pair, perhaps especially young Jarrad Branthwaite, would also be strong possibilities. Ashley Young had been having an outstanding season, but is, alas, too old to be really reliable, and appears to have lost the start now; and the selection at right-back is probably too uncertain to punt on - I'd stick with Mykolenko.

As with Alisson, Jordan Pickford is probably the most inviting pick from the whole team - because he'll almost certainly pick up a lot of 'saves' points if they do get a bit battered in one or both games, but surely also has a good chance of at least one clean sheet. And with Everton starting to show signs of improvement under David Moyes, he's probably a decent keeper pick for the rest of the season. [There's a lot to be said, actually, for getting both Alisson and Pickford - if you have the transfers to spare - and stacking your bench with Everton players for a Bench Boost this week.]

Some people were getting excited about Dominic Calvert-Lewin as an attacking prospect; but his goalscoring form has always been too erratic to be persuade me of his worth. And anyway, it looks as though he's now going to be out for several weeks with a hamstring injury. I much prefer Iliman Ndiaye or Beto as forward options for that club anyway, and they'll have more responsibility for goals placed on them in Calvert-Lewin's absence. Ndiaye has been consistently impressive this season - very pacey, very skillful, a cool finisher - but has usually been played out wide, and a bit too deep to have much impact around the box. I am hopeful that he might be deployed further forward now; I think, in fact, he could probably fulfil the No. 9 role - although Beto will probably be preferred for that. However, it does look as if he's taking over from Calvert-Lewin on penalties - so, that's a major point in his favour.

I could have been excited about the possibilities of Dwight McNeil, if he'd been able to play in these two fixtures; but with him needing surgery on his troublesome knee, he's now likely to remain out for quite some time. The only other midfield option who might be worth a thought is Abdelaye Doucoure, who's a very dependable central midfielder - and someone who does come up with the occasional goal. And against currently dismal Leicester, he might get an opportunity to do that.

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  That damned new 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now. So, I urge you all to quit the game in protest as soon as possible, ideally during the coming week; or at least commit to refusing to use the chip, and criticise and complain about it online as much as possible.

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

The final countdown.....

I had been about to try to fake up some excitement about this year's mid-season transfer window by observing that we now have less than 72 hours before it closes...

But, what do you know?  I'd been expecting it to close at midnight on Friday, because.... you know, tradition. And the calendar.

But I've just discovered that this year the deadline is not at midnight on the 31st, but at 11pm (UK time) on Monday, 3rd February.

So, we have a whole 5 more days..... of waiting for nothing to happen. Oh, joy!

So far, the moves of Kinsky to Spurs, Malen to Villa, Marmoush to City, and Philogene and Enciso to Ipswich have been the only events of even mild interest to unfold. Well, apart from the amusing spectacle of Arsenal repeatedly leaking details of forwards they've supposedly made lavish bids for, only to discover that no-one wants to go and play for them....

But Arsenal and Manchester United and Manchester City and Newcastle and Villa and Spurs and a few others are really quite desperate to bolster their squad depth, if not to acquire one or two major new assets in key areas, so things might yet get a bit more interesting.

And everyone seems to thrive on the insane brinksmanship of trying to tie up the details of a deal in the last hours and minutes before the window closes. So, there's quite likely to be a late flurry of activity next Monday evening.

To keep up with developments (if any should ever occur...), I've mainly been looking to the very simple transfer updates page being maintained by the Fantasy Football Scout website... although this is a very similar resource, with slightly more commentary, on Football Transfers, if you crave an alternative (or just want some additional confirmation, to soothe your cynicism; I usually do).

A Commitment (and a Confession)

As I've been promising - and advocating for others to do too - for several weeks now, I have renounced the game of Fantasy Premier League for the rest of this season, in protest at the introduction of the new 'Assistant Manager' bonus chip, which I see as a stupid, pointless, and game-ruining gimmick.

And, as I shared on here a couple of days ago, since FPL refuses to let me delete my squad or remove it from competition without also relinquishing my entire account - with its competition history, and the mini-leagues I administer - into oblivion too, I find myself obliged to let my team go on without me... a 'zombie' team, shambling on inexorably toward the end of season without any intelligent direction.

And so I find myself with a slightly abashed confession to make: I did 'cheat' on the terms of my original resolve to quit the game as soon as the Assistant Manager chip went live.... just a little bit.

I was resigned to having my squad slowly eroded by injuries (or transfers!) or shifts in form over the remainder of the season, and probably being mightily shafted by my inabiliity to use my remaining 'rebuild' chips, or to adapt with transfers to the major speedbumps of the blank and double gameweeks we encounter later in the year, or to ever rotate my captaincy around fluctuating form and fixtures. But I did decide to hastily use up my two bonus chips, the Triple Captain and Bench Boost (earlier than I would have liked, possibly far from ideal deployments). And I also set up as well as I could for the upcoming Double Gameweek - and, hopefully, for the rest of the season - with some final transfers.... in what was technically Gameweek 24. (And, as you can see in the memorial screenshot at the top of this post, I've got my Bench Boost in play this week - on an Everton-stacked bench.)

All I can say in my defence is that I did this in a mad, guilty rush, immediately after the last Gameweek deadline closed (so, before any of the GW23 games had been played, and thus with no knowledge of what new shifts in form we might see, or what injuries and suspensions might emerge over the weekend),..... and I did feel bad about even that slight departure from my high-minded intentions.

I hope any regular readers (it looks like I do have a few already?) can forgive me this small lapse. I hope I can forgive myself.

I do sincerely believe that this new Assistant Manager chip is worth fighting against - as consistently and emphatically as we are able. Please join me in this righteous crusade!

Join The Boycott:

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

So long, farewell.....

 

I'm DONE for this season.

I have thrown in the towel - in protest at the introduction of the ridiculous, unnecessary, game-distorting 'Assistant Manager' chip.

However, since one of the many infuriating deficiencies of the FPL user-interface is that it does not allow you to delete a team without deleting your entire account, I am obliged to leave my team going as a dormant - or 'zombie' - competitor. 

[I'm not so concerned about losing my prior game history, as I've lost my account twice before for various reasons, so only have one or two previous seasons recorded under this one. I prefer to keep my own records of progress anyway. And I'm not keen on having a publicly available record published on the Internet - I value my privacy too much!

However,.... it seems I would also delete a couple of mini-leagues I administer, and I don't want to do that to the other participants. So, I'm stuck with having to remain nominally involved in a game I'd rather walk away from completely.  Sigh.]

Nonetheless, I am ever on the lookout for a new 'challenge', a new focus for my boundless curiosity.... So, I am finding myself quite intrigued to see what will happen to an unchanged team over the remainder of the season.

Last year, a competitor in my local mini-league had an outrageously lucky start to the season and was 200 points or so ahead of the field by Christmas. But sometime around January or February, he somehow got himself locked out of his account (although his 'form' had already started to crumble a bit while he was still active). I think it was only in the penultimate week of the season that I and another competitor finally managed to overhaul him.

I'm top in that league again at the moment, but without a very substantial cushion; so, I imagine it will not take my local rivals very long to outpace me. But it will be interesting to see.

I've set up what I hope will be a strong squad for the remainder of the season, and it should continue to produce pretty well - unless I get hit with a lot of injuries. But of course, I will get slammed by the blank and double gameweeks that I can't adapt to. And I won't be playing that 'Assistant Manager' chip, which is potentially worth a huge number of points....

So, farewell then, my friends.....

But, as Arnie would say..... "I'LL BE BACK!"

A-glitching we will go!

 

The new 'Assistant Manager' chip (AssMan to its friends - though I don't think it has many of those...) has been available since the close of the Gameweek 23 deadline last Saturday.

Many FPL managers are rushing to use it straight away - partly because the Double Gameweek for Liverpool and Everton next week offers an opportunity to extract more points from it (though also from the other two bonus chips, so it might be a slightly tough call as to which is the best to go for),.... but also because - as I gather from all the grumping on the forums - a lot of them regard the damn thing as so insanely over-complicated, and so problematic to fit in alongside plans for your other chips, it's better to use it at once..... simply TO GET IT OUT OF THE WAY.

And a lot of these early adopters have been discovering that IT DOESN'T WORK!  Well, it seems that on the mobile app version of the game, activating the new chip seems to freeze up the rest of the game... making it impossible for you to carry out any other needful tweaks to your team, such as making transfers or substitutions or swapping your captaincy around. Awkward.

It seems there's probably a software update you have to install to get the game working properly again on your phone.  And the web-based version of the game does not seem to have had these problems, so if you can log into your accounnt through a browser, you should be fine. 

But BE WARNED: it would be unfortunate if you left it until just before the Gameweek deadline to make your weekly team tweaks,.... and suddenly found that you couldn't do anything.

It is really not unexpected that the introduction of this new chip might cause a major snafu. It is a very complex addition to the game - lasting longer than any previous chip, introducing a completely new set of points rules, and introducing the major new element of 'managers' (who nevertheless still operate in some ways like - and interact with the game interface for - players: they cost a transfer fee, changes of manager use up a transfer, and they count as one of your quota of three 'players' from any one club). That is an awful lot of new stuff to assimilate into the game.

The FPL Gnomes really should have done some beta-testing on the idea first, but..... Ooops.  Oh, no: they were in such a headlong rush to get this damned thing out, they probably didn't even do any alpha-testing....!

They ought to have done some public consultation on such a major and disruptive change to the game format too. (If they had done, I think they would have got very substantial negative feedback on the idea; not from the majority, probably; but a significant amount from the more intelligent and committed players - enough, hopefully, to make them realise that this idea should have remained part of the dumb-but-innocuous 'Fantasy Challenge' side-game series, and not been incorporated into the main game.)

I absolutely bloody HATE this stupid new chip - and I am urging everyone to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use the damn thing. 

And if you can't bring yourself to do either of those things, please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Luck-o-Meter (23)

 

Darn - this is looking like it could be another weekend where the match outcomes and performances provide most of the surprises, rather than dodgy refereeing. That can't be a bad thing. But it doesn't mean there's no luck at play in unexpectedly skewing the FPL points returns - it's just a different kind of 'luck'!

We've seen Bournemouth on a strongly improving trend for some time now, and after their commanding victory over Newcastle last week, we'd expect their confidence to have been sky-high for this home fixture against high-flying Nottingham Forest. But the comprehensiveness of their eventual win must surely count as the weekend's biggest surprise (among many!). Forest have rarely given up a chance to anyone over the last few months, but they were somehow lacking their usual spark here - and Chris Wood, in particular, was strangely anonymous. Yet they still weren't terrible: the match was very evenly balanced for a long time, with only Justin Kluivert's early screamer separating the two sides for nearly an hour. But once Dango Ouattara headed home the second, the visitors started to fall apart, and Bournemouth appeared to be able to score at will, might have been able to rack up even more of a landslide win. Ouattara was unfortunate to miss out on being the first player this season to notch 4 goals in a game, when his finish to the game's slickest team move was ruled out - correctly - for a narrow offside. [I am somewhat embarrassed by the sudden extravagant 'success' of my prediction a couple of weeks back that Ouattara was 'one to watch', as he seemed likely to inherit the No. 9 mantle at the club.]

Brighton's rather tepid performance might not have deserved a win against Everton's stubborn defence, but they were extremely unfortunate to lose this one, the visitors really not producing a decent effort on goal, apart from the weird - and very soft - penalty. On replays, Joel Veltman did appear to deliberately bat the ball away with his hand; but that would have been a very bizarre thing to do, and it is also possible that the touch was just accidental, as he was falling forwards out of control and trying to twist his body to land on his side rather than his front. Given how extremely reluctant VAR has usually been this season to intervene on violent fouls, it is especially difficult to see how this incident meets the threshold criterion of being a 'clear and obvious error' by the referee initially. There may also be an issue of whether Veltman himself had been fouled by Beto, who did appear to have run across him, from slightly behind, causing him to lose balance and pitch forward when he had been an easy favourite to claim the ball; this aspect of the situation does not seem to have been addressed at all (either by the match officials or TV pundits!). It was a very solid display by Everton, especially as the loss of Mangala with a knee injury with some 15 minutes still to be played brought them down to 10 men. However, Everton fans who claim they knew "they were always going to win this one" are being delusional: this was one of the luckiest wins of the season, and competely against the form book.

Liverpool got a predictably comfortable win over Ipswich at Anfield, without ever really needing to get out of second gear. FPL managers who gambled their Triple Captain chip on Mo Salah this week will be disappointed that he contributed just the one goal (and was perhaps rather lucky to receive 1 bonus point in addition); and those who own Trent Alexander-Arnold will be miffed that Liverpool gave up a late consolation goal from a corner, and that a thunderous drive of his own late in the game smashed harmlessly against the woodwork - he very nearly got a massive score this week, but it was not to be. MeKenna's men at least showed a lot more pluck and cohesion than they did last week in capitulating to City; they hung in quite impressively during the second half, and might feel a bit unfortunate to have ended up shipping 4 goals. However, Julio Enciso's being spared a sending-off for his horrific challenge on Endo must be the worst decision of the week - and perhaps the worst red card decision of the entire season. (I mention below Lewis-Skelly's incorrect sending-off against Wolves as one of the worst decisions of the season. But I usually write these summaries in the order the games are shown on BBC's 'Match of the Day'. This was far, far worse.)  You cannot safely challenge for a ball that is bouncing high, only inches in front of an opponent's chest. And he had no chance of getting his raised foot on the ball anyway; he was just running and jumping into his opponent with his leg coming up miles off the floor - and unsurprisingly ended up whacking the guy in the side of the face with his knee. It was the kind of foul that could easily have caused a very serious injury, even a fatality (I am frankly surprised and appalled that the injured player was not withdrawn under 'concussion protocols'; he cannot not have been concussed to some extent by an impact like that.)  And since there was no conceivable footballing justification for charging into his opponent like that, it did look very much like an act of deliberate thuggery, a wilful attempt to hurt an opponent. I hope the FA can look at this again, and impose a retrospective ban. I like Enciso's skills as a player, but he deserves to be out of the game for a long time for a challenge like that. And yet again, you have to ask what on earth VAR was doing; if the referee somehow missed how dangerous the collision was, he should have been sent to the pitchside monitor.

Newcastle still aren't looking quite at their best, but were massively improved over last week's listless performance against Bournemouth. Despite giving up an early lead to Jan Bednarek's header by forgetting to defend a corner properly, they ultimately came through about as comfortably as you'd expect against 'already relegated' Southampton; although they did have another scare when Matheus Fernandes's late breakaway goal was just offside. And Isak owners will no doubt be aggrieved that he didn't quite manage a hattrick; he had chances to add a third. At least VAR was doing its job this time, directing the referee to take another look when he somehow missed Aribo stamping on Isak's foot for the equalising penalty.

I have in the past been rather critical about Arteta's frequent whingeing about decisions, but dear, oh dear, he's really got a case this season: how many more ridiculously unjust red cards can Arsenal suffer in one year? While I don't like cynical fouls like Lewis-Skelly's, it was clearly a trip rather than a kick; he may have scraped his studs down the side of his victim's leg a bit, but it wasn't that high and there was no force behind it; and of course, deep in the opposition half, with two of his defensive colleagues well ahead of the ball, there was absolutely no question of it yet being "a clear goalscoring opportunity". It is baffling how such an experienced referee as Michael Oliver could make such a stupid, obviously wrong decision, and how the VAR officials continue to lack the balls to ever point that their onfield colleague has been sillly, even when the error is quite gross and unmistakable. That was one of the very worst decisions we've seen this season - and there have been some very, very bad ones. Hopefully, the FA will see sense, and immediately overturn it.

One might question some of Arteta's selection decisions for this one. Obviously, the late withdrawal of Martin Odegaard with an illness was a major disruption to the gameplan - but why would you replace him with the teenager Nwaneri, inexperienced, only just making his way back from an injury, and not a central midfielder.... when options like Merino or Jorginho are available?? Why rush Lewis-Skelly and Saliba straight back into the lineup after injury worries... when Kiwior and Calafiori appear to be fit to play?? (This looks again like the stifling over-reliance on favourite players that I criticised a few weeks back. primarily in reference to Pep, but noted as also sadly applicable to Mikel.)  Even before the ridiculous sending-off, Arsenal had looked miles off it, and Wolves had had the better of most of the early exchanges. Curiously, they lost momentum after the break, when Arsenal reorganised with 10 men. Nevertheless, Arsenal were quite lucky to suvive a couple of scares, when Cunha's one decent effort of the match was fingertipped away by Raya (and he then couldn't get a follow-up attempt from the subsequent corner on target...), and then Ait-Nouri's late solo breakaway brought another good save from the Arsenal keeper. Joao Gomes's rash foul to earn a second yellow card gifted Arsenal a way back into the game late on. Really, despite the injustice of their own red card, they should have been grateful to limp away from this messy match with a draw.

City and their fans will no doubt get a big lift in confidence from an ultimately comfortable win against one of their leading rivals; but to me this result really looked to be more down to Chelsea being rather poor than City being particularly good. The visitors dominated in the first 15-20 minutes, and as Maresca said afterwards, if they'd managed to get a second goal in that period (they had some good chances, particularly when Palmer and Jackson broke clear in behind, but Palmer - most uncharacteristically - very slightly overplayed the final square ball to put Jackson in on an open goal, allowing keeper and defender a chance to recover), the match would probably have turned out very differently. They really should have been able to exploit the debutant nerves of the young Uzbek defender Khusanov, who looked absolutely shell-shocked for a while after his horrible error gifted Chelsea a 10th-minute lead, and who seemed likely to make a mistake every time he got on the ball for some while afterwards. It was perhaps a sign of desperation from Pep that he threw his two new signings straight into the fray, despite having had very little time to work with them in training (and Pep having apparently acknowledged that Khusanov's inability to understand much English is a serious obstacle to onboarding him); the flakey Uzbek got pulled before the hour, and the pacey Egyptian forward Marmoush kept wasting good attacking opportunities by getting caught offside (and not by small amounts either: it's very rare in the modern game to see players regularly being off by half-a-yard or a yard - but he was). It was rather ominous, I felt, that Pep himself still did not seem to think this team or this performance were very good, sombrely noting in his post-match interview, "Without the ball.... we are one of the worst teams. We need the ball to survive."  Moreover, I felt City's goals were all somewhat lucky: to me, Nunes looked slightly offside when he broke away to create the equaliser just before half-time; and Foden might have been - very, very narrowly - for the late third; but neither of these moves appeared to get a VAR check (WTF???). And the crucial second goal would not have happened if Maresca were not persisting with the hapless Robert Sanchez in goal: his appalling error of judgement (actually, two or three errors in quick succession) gifted City the decisive momentum in the match. I would also question the selection of Reece James: presumably he is favoured for his attacking abilities, but his inclusion seems to unbalance what had been looking a nicely settled side, and defensively he looked very poor yesterday (probably still not yet fully match-fit?).

The Palace v Brentford game looked as if the players were inhibited by the miserable conditions, relentless freezing rain taking the edge off their usual energy and inventiveness. Brentford got a bit lucky with the penalty that finally put them ahead - Lacroix's initial 'foul' being highly dubious (it was silly to raise his foot that high, but the contact on the attacker's shin was so slight as to be almost non-existent; in a physical game, not every leg-on-leg contact should be seen as an offence), and then with Mbeumo being given a second crack at the kick after Guehi had foolishly encroached into the penalty area as he lashed his first effort against the foot of the left post - and then didn't respond to the rebound, allowing a Palace defender (Richards, was it?) to nip ahead of him and clear the ball. (There was an additional penalty appeal for handball against Will Hughes, which was rendered moot because the penalty 'foul' occurred only a few moments later - though, strictly speaking, both incidents should have been considered, and it should have been made clear which one the penalty was being awarded for. I feel a decision against Hughes would have been even harsher; he was instinctively raising his hands to protect his face when his own player - Guehi - lashed the ball at him from less than 2 yards away: a perfectly 'natural position' in those circumstances, and absolutely nothing he could do about it.)  Recently 'hot' Mateta didn't have much impact on the game - just one good early shot, well parried away by Flekken; Eze, similarly, didn't manage to impose himself much, and his only notable contribution was wasting two free-kicks in very promising positions (although one of them at least glanced off the outside of the far post after taking a big deflection off the wall). A good Palace move producing a late goal for substitute Esse made the closing minutes a bit tense for the visiting team, but there had never really been much doubt that Brentford deserved to win the game - and they very nearly grabbed a third at the death when Wissa's header across the box towards an inrushing Mbeumo was clumsily deflected against the post by a Palace defender and somehow slithered away to safety rather than rebounding into Mbeumo's path.

West Ham are another bottom-end club who look as if they might be recovering some cohesion and confidence under a new manager. Although Villa started brightly, with Ramsey giving them the early lead from a fine team move, and Watkins putting a header just wide a little later, a post-Champions League drop in stamina again seemed to be an issue for them, and they let the visiting team gain all the momentum in the second half. The much-fancied Morgan Rogers was particularly anonymous in this one; it was possible to be unaware that he was even on the pitch for long periods (he had a BPS score of ZERO!). West Ham were ultimately well worth their draw, unfortunate, in fact, not to have claimed the win: Paqueta lashed a good chance wide early in the second half, Carlos Soler had an effort from an acute angle (after a cross had been uncharacterstically spilled by Emi Martinez) brilliantly cleared off the line by Konsa, substitute Danny Ings was only a whisker wide with a strong drive from outside the box late in the game, and an apparent late winner (after yet another error by Martinez!) was invalidated by Soucek being offside when be pounced on the loose ball spilled by the keeper. Villa, however, can feel rightly aggrieved that Alvarez was allowed to stay on the pitch after be blatantly body-checked Kamara: there is no way that can not be a yellow card offence - and it would have been his second of the game. This is yet another instance where we see the folly of not allowing VAR interventions on second-yellow incidents. (And he should have had another mandatory yellow in the first half for kicking the ball away after the referee wrongly penalised a tackle of his - he was really riding his luck in this game!)  However, Lucas Digne was also lucky not to be expelled for jabbing his elbow in an opponent's chest while jostling for position in a line defending a free-kick; there wasn't much force in it, but there was clearly aggressive intent; it was a wanton act of petulance - deserving of a red. VAR had a long hard look at it, but then - surprise, surprise! - did nothing.

Leicester also appear to be finally finding some defensive solidity - but it was only against Spurs. And they needed their back-up goalkeeper Jakub Stolarczyk to be at his sharpest during the home side's occasional bright spells. Not much of controversy - or interest - though in this scrappy bottom-of-the-table clash; the onlly 'luck' involved being Ange Postecoglou's still hanging on to his job (presumably only because at least he's still in two cup competitions... and they might find it difficult to find a decent replacement before the end of the season; there are apparently some rumours now that Erik ten Hag might be under consideration - but Spurs fans surely wouldn't stomach the humiliation of taking on a Manchester United reject... again).

With Fulham and United both mired in a midseason slump, it was fairly inevitable that their game at The Cottage would be a lifeless borefest - the last game on 'Match of the Day' that only diehard fans of the two clubs will bother to stay up for. Lisandro Martinez's decider needed the help of a huge deflection off a defender on the edge of the box... and even so, Leno probably should have been able to tip it over. Fernandes a little later reminded everyone about the value of the 'draft-excluder' by fizzing a free-kick under the wall and into the near side-netting. United, alas, were so shakey in all areas of the pitch, they let Fulham progressively back into the game, and had to endure an uncomfortable period of sustained pressure from the home side at the end; substitute Tom Collyer had to make a brilliant headed clearance off his goalline to preserve the frail lead. But then, deep in added-on time, United appeared to have got a second goal they didn't really deserve, with another brilliant solo effort from Amad Diallo - which was ruled out by one of those offside calls so close that even when they show you the supposed 'decisive' still-frame - with the 'lines' drawn in - it still doesn't look offiside! Extremely galling for the 23.5% of FPL managers that now own him!! Ruben Amorim, meanwhile, cemented his place in the disfavour of FPL fans for yanking Rasmus Hojlund off in the 58th minute. Almost no-one owns Hojlund (just over 1.% - which I find surprisingly many!), but it's the readiness to use substitutions short of the crucial hour-mark which alarms us.

Only 2 mildly contentious (probably correct, but certainly very arguable) penalty decisions this week, but 3 absolutely awful red card decisions, and another highly questionable one, with Lewis-Skelly wrongly sent off for a trivial foul, but Enciso given only a wrist-slap for a horrific foul on Wataru Endo that should have seen him banned for a long time, while West Ham's Alvarez somehow received only one yellow card for three inescapably bookable offences.... and Digne was very fortunate to be let off for irritably jabbing his elbow into an opponent's ribcage. There were also a few goals denied by very tight offside calls (I still can't see how Diallo was judged to be offside)... and a few more (two in the City game; go figure!) allowed without any apparent VAR check of a possible offside. There has been a slight trend towards better refereeing overall in the last month or so, but this weekend felt like a bit of a step backwards again.

And then, oh my god, the results: Liverpool, Newcastle, Villa and Brighton somehow fail to keep clean sheets against bottom-of-the-table clubs - Brighton actually lose, and Villa very nearly do! City beat Chelsea surprisingly easily, without actually playing well. And Forest, lately the best defence in the league, suddenly forgot how to defend and suffered an absolute spanking??  Only Manchester United and Brentford managed to bring home the expected result of a drab, narrow win - everything else this week was a bit of a freak-show. In GW23's 'Team of the Week', there are 5 or 6 players that just about nobody owns; while major favourites like Salah, Palmer, Mbeumo and Gordon all missed out. 

On balance, I think that makes this week about an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'. There weren't that many outstnding moments of skill or bizarre incidents during the play (apart from a bunch of goals from defenders again!), but many of the results were a little - or a lot - of a surprise, and there was yet again some really dire work by referees and VAR officials.

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  That damned new chip is in play now. So, I urge you all to quit the game in protest as soon as possible, ideally during the coming week; or at least commit to refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip, and criticise and complain about it online as much as possible.

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW23

 

Well, at least we don't seem to have many - well, not that many - new injuries from the penultimate round of Champions League and Europa League games this week. 

Of course, injury news often breaks late, on Friday afternoon or even Saturday morning. So, I'll endeavour to update if anything else important emerges.

Still not much action in the transfer window, although Egyptian forward Omar Marmoush's move from Eintracht Frankfurt to Manchester City has been confirmed, and he is priced in FPL at 7.0 million.  (Villa's Donyell Malen, strangedly unnpriced last week, has now been entered in the FPL rolls at 5.5 million. I'm rather more excited about his possibilities in the game.)  And it looks as though Ipswich are committing to making a serious fight of it in the second half of their season, having brought in Ben Godfrey, Jaden Philogene, and Julio Enciso on loan.

Nevertheless, there's still a week of the window left, and most of the action - if there's going to be some - typically happens very late in the day. Thus, I will still continue to warn - Cassandra-like - that this month (and probably next month too,) is a very bad time to play the 2nd Wildcard. - even though the looming Double Gameweek (for Everton and Liverpool) next week is tempting a lot of people to do so. (It's going to be so much more valuable to drop it before the fairly big DGW at the end of season, if you can hang on to it that long.)

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 23?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Arsenal's young full-back Myles Lewis-Skelly missed their game against Zagreb the other night after complaining of some muscle tightness in training. Zinchenko is therefore likely to start at left-back. (Ben White might be available again soon, but not quite yet.)  William Saliba, whose possible absence last week was a very late-breaking 'rumour' on Saturday morning but did indeed miss out, apparently felt a hamstring strain in training; Arteta thinks 'not serious', but he's going to be missing at least this week, and possibly next. (Since the experiment of playing Partey at right-back and Timber in the centre didn't work out at all well last week, I'd expect Timber to stay on the right this time and Kiwior to come in for Saliba.)

Amadou Onana had to come off in the match against Arsenal last week with what looks as though it could be quite a serious hamstring injury.

Brighton's Matt O'Riley missed the last game against Manchester United because of a painful knock on the knee suffered in training, but could be available again now.

Enzo Fernandez and Romeo Lavia likewise missed last week because of last-minute training knocks, but Maresca thinks they should both be OK this week.

Diogo Jota  suffered yet another muscle injury just before the Brentford game, and has now been ruled out for 'weeks'. And Curtis Jones is another who was troubled by 'muscle tightness' and dropped out at half-time in the midweek game against Lille, now seems unlikely to be able to play this weekend.

Ruben Dias and Jeremy Doku also both picked up muscle problems in the midweek defeat to PSG (Dias being withdrawn at half-time; perhaps having been rushed back into first-team starts from his last injury a little too quickly?).

United's Matthijs de Ligt is yet another who had to come off in a European game last night with 'muscle tightness'; might shake it off, but will Amorim want to take the chance - if he's got anyone else fit to play? Noussair Mazraoui was missing from the squad for that one because of a training ground knock (meaning that Dalot had to be switched back to the left flank, and Diallo was withdrawn into the right wing-back role; not ideal for his FPL points prospects); but that was described as only a precautionary rest, so he should be involved again this weekend.

Aaron Ramsdale is struggling with some kind of 'torso injury' (bruised ribs from last weekend's game?), and Juric describes him as a 'doubt'.

Yves Bissouma and Brennan Johnson were ruled out last week, by a training ground knock and a very sore calf respectively, and were missing again against Hoffenheim this week; Bissouma is still a doubt for this weekend, and Johnson now seems likely to miss at least a few weeks. Pape Sarr also missed the midweek game, after suffering a knock in Sunday's game against Everton, and young full-back Djed Spence was complaining of being sore after that game, but both should be OK again now. In better news for Spurs, nothing has been found seriously amiss with Rodrigo Betancur after his mysterious on-pitch collapse in the League Cup game against Liverpool a fortnight ago; he was able to play the full game against Hoffenheim, and is expected to start against Leicester too.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

What do you know: NO suspensions or loan-agreement exclusions this week - that's a first! Oh, no, wait: too good to be true.... I'd forgotten about West Ham defender Konstantinos Mavropanos picking up two yellow cards against Palace; he'll be serving a one-match ban. With Todibo still struggling with a knock picked up in the City game three weeks ago and Zouma loaned out to the Saudi league, West Ham could be dangerously short of defenders this week, probably having to play Wann-Bissaka at centre-back, and maybe another of their back-up full-backs too, if they stick with a back-three.

Promising teenage fullback Julio Soler, only just signed to Bournemouth from Argentine club Lanus, will be unavailable until some time next month as he's currently representing Argentina iin the South American Under-20 Championship in Brazil. Not likely to be a starter for them any time soon anyway, though, I'd imagine.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Alejandro Garnacho has been involved in a lot of transfer speculation this week, so that might be a reason for him to be dropped from the starting lineup against Fulham on Sunday. (He played the full game against Rangers on Thursday night, so might need a little bit of a rest anyway.)

You can usually forgive a goalkeeper one bad game, but André Onana and Lukasz Fabianski had real stinkers last weekend; and they've had a number of flakey moments over the past few games. And since Fabianski doesn't have any obvious edge over Alphonse Areola anyway, I think there's a strong chance the young French keeper might now be getting his start back.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Justin Kluivert, obviously! Yet, superb though that display of finishing against Newcastle was, I feel Antoine Semenyo had an arguably equally excellent game. And I already said last week that I had a hunch Dango Ouattara might soon emerge as Bournemouth's most consistent goal prospect, if he continues to start at No. 9; while Dean Huijsen and Illia Zabarnyi in central defence were perhaps even better still. However, since they have Forest and then Liverpool up next (and their bench, at present, entirely filled with reserve and youth team players, so many injuries do they have), I wouldn't be in a great rush to sign any of their players.

Quite a few people also seem to have got very excited about Dominic Calvert-Lewin's brilliant solo goal (though mostly Everton fans, I would imagine; or 'followers of fashion', maybe...). Great though that goal was, given that he's been so woefully inconsistent throughout his career, and particularly in the last couple of seasons or so, it does seem likely that it was just a flash-in-the-pan. It would shake things up quite interestingly in FPL if we were about to see a Moyes revival at Everton. But, apart from their Double Gameweek next week, beginning with a promising home fixture against woeful Leicester, their opponents are pretty tough from now until March.

Phil Foden also had an eye-catching game (though keeper Christian Walton really should have been able to hold the second of his brace), and it's good to see him playing with a broad grin on his face again. However, City still really don't look greatly improved all-around, and are now entering one of the toughest fixture-runs faced by any club in the second half of the season, a sequence of six or seven games where they might really struggle for points. So, I'm going to resist that temptation as well - for now; I may come to regret that.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott; the dratted new 'Assistant Manager' chip should become available shortly after tomorrow's deadline - so, I do urge everyone to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use this silly chip. 

And if you can't bring yourself to do either of those things, sorry competition addicts that you are (I know, it's hard...), please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A little bit of Zen (26)

 

"Fear is the mind-killer."

Frank Herbert  -  'Dune'

A corner turned?

Manchester City fans - and FPL managers who own any of their players - seem to be taking much encouragement from their emphatic 6-0 win this weekend.

But is this one success really a sign that their troubles are over? Are they really that much better?

Well, here are some of the potential positives:

Kyle Walker's gone now; that can only be a good thing. His pace and stamina have looked to be waning rapidly of late, and he's really begun to look as if he's past it at Premier League level. His last few performances, certainly, have been quite dreadful (perhaps he's also been distracted by his turbulent private life, or greedy thoughts of getting ready to take the Saudi money in the twilight of his career?), and he had become a liability to the team.

But Ruben Dias is back - that's HUGE, immediately makes them look so much more solid and well-organised and confident in defence.

Ederson's back too. Though Ortega is a a more than competent replacement (probably, in fact, as good as Ederson in most aspects of the goalkeeping craft; an excellent shot-stopper), Ederson is the man the rest of the team have been used to playing with most of the time, so his return to the side will also probably inject some comfortable - and confidence-building - familiarity to the rear of the lineup, a feeling which has been lacking of late. And his stellar distribution adds another dimension to City's game - allowing them the ready option to abandon the slow build-up from the back occasionally and try more direct medium-length or even long balls up the park... with sufficient accuracy to produce a high chance that they will reach, and be retained by a City player. (It does make you wonder why he was out of the side for so long in the first place, though. There may have been some small injury issues behind some of it, but it did look also as if Pep had some kind of a 'problem' with him for a while - a matter of not liking his 'attitude' about something, perhaps?)

Matheus Nunes is still struggling to adapt to the full-back role, but he's an intelligent and versatile player who should be able to master it eventually. And anything is an improvement on Walker....

Dropping Rico Lewis is also probably going to make the team stronger. I am a big fan - as Pep evidently is - of his enthusiasm and workrate, his game intelligence, the incisive contribution he can make in advanced midfield areas. But he's still very young and inexperienced, and he just doesn't have the physicality to be able to dominate in individual duels; playing him as a makeshift full-back, particularly when out-of-touch Walker was on the other flank, or alongside on the right of the defence, was asking for trouble. He had, unfortunately, become - yet another - obvious defensive weakness that opponents can ruthlessly target.

Gundogan and Kovacic playing together as a double-pivot, and trying to sit a little deeper, does appear to provide the potential for a little more solidity in central midfield.

Kevin DeBruyne is starting to look something like his best again now. It has taken a while for him to get his 'match-fitness' back, and his contributions in his first few games back from injury had been rather intermittent. But in this one, he was a constant threat and supplied three assists.

And damn, yes, Erling Haaland is looking as though he has definitively rediscovered his scoring touch. (Although I've always tended to think that there was never much wrong with his form or confidence. He'd just been starved of service while the rest of the team was floundering so badly over the previous couple of months.)

And perhaps best of all, Phil Foden has not just got his scoring boots back, but seems to have rekindled his joie de vivre as well. This is the first time in a long while we've seen him looking so happy and confident, showing such exuberant joy on the pitch.

And a lot of people are also saying that the arrival of the pacey Egyptian forward Omar Marmoush could have a transformative effect for City in the near future. Adam Monk of FourFourTwo rates his prospects with the club very highly. He does appear to have a skills profile and versatility somewhat similar to the departed Julian Alvarez - perhaps enabling him to sometimes play alongside Haaland as a strike partner, as well as to fulfill a number of different attacking midfield roles through the middle or on either flank (rather than being merely an emergency replacement for Haaland).

Yes, there's a lot to take comfort from there. But I believe there are many, rather stronger counter-points:

Well, that victory was only against Ipswich; and Ipswich were really, really poor in that game - just gave up the ghost after the first couple of goals. Proving that you're not one of the four worst teams in the League isn't really evidence of any seismic shift in performance.

Dias still doesn't look quite 100% - and you worry if Pep might be rushing him back into the fray just a little bit, perhaps putting him at risk of a recurrence of his injury. (So, indeed, it would appear! The poor bloke broke down during the PSG game just a few days later, and had to be withdrawn at half-time. Ooops!)  Also, excellent though he is, he can't hold things together at the back entirely on his own; he needs Stones and Ake to be back in action too.

Matheus Nunes is not a natural full-back, and is struggling to adapt to the position at the moment (it's probably not helping when Pep switches him from one side to the other), and he has been making a lot of mistakes thus far. Also, it just seems to be a bit of a waste of his talents; it is quite baffling that Pep doesn't seem to fancy playing him in his best position in central midfield - especially since that is the area of the pitch where his worst problems are manifesting themselves. [JJ Bull of The Athletic recently suggested that he'd do better to reunite with Ruben Amorim at Manchester United and play in a double-pivot with Manuel Ugarte there.]

While Rico Lewis has occasionally looked a bit of a liability defensively, he's nevertheless been one of City's best players this season, and it is therefore, I think, unfortunate to abandon him completely. There ought to be a way to make use of him in a more advanced role.

Gundogan, unfortunately, now looks hopelessly out-of-his-depth at the top level, just does not have any legs any more. Pep seems to be guilty of a misplaced loyalty here, or an exaggerated gratitude for his past contributions, or is perhaps overrating the value of experience. Playing Gundogan as a defensive midfielder now has much the same effect as Casemiro has whenever Amorim is forced to field him at United: it's just an open invitation to the opponents to come marauding through the central areas at will.

And Mateo Kovacic, bless him, is a fantastic progressive No. 6, great passer of the ball, dangerous when pushing forward himself - but doesn't have a defensive bone in his body; he completely lacks the all-around awareness, the instinct to spot danger that is required for a stopper role. Persisting with him as a Rodri replacement is the main root of City's current problems. And those problems are NOT going to go away unless they can acquire a top-class defensive midfielder in this transfer window. (And I think they might have to settle for a loan deal on that - because who's going to transfer into a club to be a perpetual understudy to someone like Rodri for the next five years?)

DeBruyne still doesn't look 100% fit (not sure if this is so, but I read somewhere that he might have a small hernia - much like the problem that so impeded Son Heung-min last season; not a major disability, but a constant, niggling inhibitor of performance). And he's starting to show his age. It is probably not reasonable to expect him to ever quite regain the pinnacle of performance he was demonstrating a few years ago.

Haaland, of course, could still deliver some big goalscoring returns. But he's not the kind of player who - like Salah or Palmer or Mbeumo.... - creates chances for himself out of nothing; he needs good regular service. And I fear he's still likely to be often lacking that from this City side. Moreover, game states can have a big impact on patterns of play and on a striker's mentality: there's a lot of extra pressure on the main goalscorer when you're chasing the game - and City look like they might still quite often be chasing games.

I am a huge fan of Phil Foden, and I - more than anyone! - really hope that he has turned a corner this season, that he has ironed something out in his relationship with Pep that has restored his confidence, and that he is going to continue now to play with the effervescence he showed last Sunday. But that hope is still fragile. Phil thrived on the security of being an almost invariable starter for most of last season, in DeBruyne's absence, and on being given the responsibility of being the club's primary playmaker. And he thrives on being able to play in central areas as a highly mobile No. 10. If Pep is going to constantly swap his starting position around, and mostly ask him to play out wide on one of the flanks, I fear this new flowering of goalscoring form may soon wither again.

And I think it may be unreasonable to expect Omar Marmoush to be The Messiah to redeem City. He has not been an especially prolific scorer (apart from one very hot streak for Frankfurt earlier this season); in fact, until he moved to Frankfurt just under 18 months ago, he was almost entirely unacquainted with the goal. And, you know, the Bundesliga isn't exactly the same level of competition as the Premier League: even its top clubs would probably struggle against most of our leading teams; the majority of teams in that league would struggle in the Championship.

And, ahem, City now have one of the toughest runs of fixtures coming up that any side - certainly any top side - has to face in the second half of the season (along with two crunch games to try to avoid the ignominy of Champions League elimination at the group stage... and the dear old FA Cup). They might have a real struggle for points from now until some time in March: Chelsea, Arsenal, Newcastle, Liverpool, Spurs (terrible at the moment; but a bogey team for City in recent years), and Nottingham Forest is an horrendous sequencc. Brighton, Manchester United and Crystal Palace - and a fighting-for-their-lives Leicester - might not be a pushover after that either. The way City were playing up until a few weeks ago, it would not have been outrageous to suggest they might lose all of them. And I'm afraid I still think it's very likely they'll lose at least half of them.

So - NO, sorry; I am not at all convinced we've yet seen any clear sign of a City renaissance.

[And sure enough, the very next night they got absolutely torn apart by Paris St Germain. Despite rather fortuitously opening up a two-goal lead in the first half, they were outplayed for almost the whole game and ended up getting spanked 4-2.... and it might have been much worse.  City's problems are deep-seated and persistent. They might be capable of significant improvement.... but they're not about to get GOOD again any time soon.]

A week further on, they have scraped through into the knockout stage of the Champions League - but only by the skin of their teeth! Again, City can't take much comfort from a fairly dismal performance against Club Brugge: they were regularly cut open by the Belgian side on the counter-attack, conceded the first goal... and very nearly went behind again when Greek forward Christos Tzolis cracked a low 20-yard shot inches wide of the post - with Ederson rooted to the spot. If that one had gone in, I doubt if City could have found a way back into the game. 

And their ultimately fairly comfortable win over Chelsea at the weekend was a bit of a head-scratcher - really more down to Chelsea being surprisingly lacklustre rather than City being at all brilliant. They are still looking... well, not just a pale shadow of the team that dominated every competition in the the last few years, but a completely different team; a much, much worse team, a really rather shambolic team, who look like they could not just get beaten but properly spanked by just about any half-decent side. In his post-match interview on Sunday, Pep was again extremely downbeat; positively careworn and depressed-looking. And he came out with one of the most self-damning remarks I think I've ever heard from a Premier League manager, when he said, "Without the ball, we are one of the worst teams. We need the ball to survive."  No, even Pep doesn't think City are any good again yet. They're hanging on by their fingernails, only occasionally giving themselves a chance in games by trying even harder than usual never to give the ball away. But no team manages never to give the ball away; and, at the moment, every time City give the ball away, they look like they might concede a goal.