Luck-o-Meter (34)

The rate of injuries has slowed in recent weeks (everyone's injured already??), but a greater incidence of fatigue, nerves, perhaps occasional complacency or dipping in motivation, and the mounting distraction of other competitions (the FA Cup and EUROPE!!), mean that already over the past few gameweeks we've seen more and more bizarre swings in form and unexpected results. The tail-end of the season becomes even more of a lottery than usual. Eccentric coaching decisions and incompetent refereeing may add even more to these uncertainties.... Will they this week? Let's see.

Nico Jackson broke his long goal drought with an absolute cracker from just outside the box - which, hopefully, should boost his confidence, and help him to improve over the remaining games. Alas, his anticipation, timing, positional play - which had been so vastly improved in the early part of this season - seem to have reverted to the cluelessness which brought so much derision on him last year. There were a few collisions and bits of wrestling in the box here which looked as if they should have merited a bit more attention than VAR apparently gave them - especially Caicedo's clattering into the back of Beto. But otherwise, there was fairly litttle of note in this game, either in the football or the officiating - apart from a couple of outstanding saves each from Sanchez and Pickford. (Two further observations, though.... First, there was an awful lot of 'faking injuries' etc. to waste time by Chelsea in this game. Yes, everyone does that these days. But Chelsea were really doing it conspicuously more than most here - to the point where you have to wonder if it is actually an official club policy, a tactic sanctioned by the manager. I do hope not. Second, Maresca served his touchline ban directly behind the dugout - where he obviously could have some 'emotional contact' with his players and staff, could easily overhear most of what they were saying, and could have spoken directly to them himself [though, admittedly, the cameras didn't catch him doing so] through the metal railing separating them. The terms of the ban may only state that he's not allowed in the dugout [or the changing-room, or on pitch during warm-ups]; but clearly the intent is that there should be a substantial physical separation between him and the dugout - and here, there wasn't! I hope he got permission from the League to watch the game from that position - in which case, it's their fault; they should have said NO. But if he didn't, he was plainly violating the spirit of his ban, and he ought to be made to serve the original ban again - as well as a substantial additional one.)

Brighton and West Ham are two strangers to consistency: they both have significant attacking threat, but most of the time can't defend to save their lives. Brighton have a much stronger overall squad and a better manager, which is why they're still in the hunt for a European place while West Ham are only spared the threat of relegation by the three promoted sides all being so exceptionally poor this season. The home side were much the better team in the first half, but failed to make it count; West Ham produced more danger after they brought on Fullkrug as a target-man for the second-half, but they likewise failed to produce many big chances... Brighton needed a couple of pingers from outside the box to clinch the result in a dull game.

Newcastle still aren't quite firing at their best - although Trippier is starting to show signs of his old greatness again at last. Here the Geordies were dominating possession and creating huge numbers of openings - but the quality of their crossing mostly wasn't too good, and their finishing was poor. Ipswich were playing with a lot of guts and resilience (Woolfenden's headed clearance over the bar, from his own goal-line, was little short of miraculous), and one suspects that - but for the contentious sending off of Ben Johnson in the first half - they might have been able to hang on for an unexpected goalless draw here. For me, although Johnson was stupid to hold back Isak when already on a yellow, that first card should not have been given; it wasn't absolutely clear - from any of the camera angles shown on TV - that Burn hadn't made some contact with his knee or shin; and even if he hadn't, Johnson's going down wasn't 'simulation', but a legitimate attempt to evade what looked like it was going to be a crunching trip. (And, by rights, Bruno Guimaraes should also have been booked for flourishing an imaginary card at the unfortunate Johnson behind the ref's back.)  The penalty was also a worrying piece of VAR intervention for me; there have been so many far more obvious fouls in the box this season that apparently did not meet the 'clear and obvious error' threshold required for VAR to whisper in the referee's ear about a possible mistake; but once that whispering begins, the referee obviously feels bound to reverse his original decision, regardless of what he sees on the TV monitor. And the problem here, even more than with the Dan Burn 'trip' on Johnson on the edge of the area, was that the TV pictures just weren't good enough to enable a definitive view to be reached: rather bizarrely, the VAR playbacks of Enciso's apparent arm-tug on Murphy only showed two angles - both from extreme distance, and both from the 'wrong side', with the attacking player's body obscuring the supposed point of contact (the defender's hand on the inside of the attacker's elbow); even more bizarrely, there was a third - much better angle - shown later on TV, much closer, and from the right-hand touchline where you had a clear line of sight to Enciso's hand reaching for the arm.... but even on that, the resolution wasn't anywhere near good enough to show if there had in fact been contact, or if it had been any more than fleeting and unsubstantial. (I'm not saying it wasn't a foul; just that the TV pictures weren't good enough to allow a definitive decision on the incident - and therefore VAR should not have been getting involved.)

As for the disallowed Newcastle goal, I think that was a fair call - although it was disappointing to see Ipswich keeper Alex Palmer going down like a bowling-pin. Yes, Guimaraes backed into him, and that's not allowed - but the contact was pretty light; he should have stayed on his feet and done his job of collecting the ball, rather than toppling backwards and looking for the foul to be given (he was taking a completely unnecessary - small, but non-zero - chance that the referee wouldn't find in his favour!). Goalkeepers should be made of granite: if an attacking player backs into you, they should be the ones hitting the ground - with bruises and regrets. As soon as an opposing team gets wind of the possibility your keeper may be physically and/or mentally intimidatable, they will target him for crowding and blocking at set-pieces (looking at you, Vicario...) - and you don't want to be inviting that kind of attention, Mr Palmer; it won't be to your or your team's advantage. Moreover, everyone surely now feels that goalkeepers are ridiculously over-protected by current refereeing practices; and having keepers 'play the system' like this, appealing for fouls to be given in their favour for the slightest contact, is only going to increase that general dissatisfaction. And maybe that will eventually lead to another tweak in the rules, or their 'interpretation guidelines' - wouldn't be a bad thing. So, I'd suggest Alex Palmer probably hasn't done his fellow goalkeepers any favours with this display of chronic lightweight-ism and play-acting; next season, we might perhaps see attacking sides starting to get away with a lot more in terms of crowding and jostling the keeper in the six-yard box - as a reaction to his piece of silliness here.

Southampton actually looked much the better side against a lacklustre Fulham in the first half, with only a couple of smart efforts from Willian (a curler drifting inches side, and a firm drive smacking against a post), getting a rare start, causing any excitement for the travelling fans. But Marco Silva made multiple tweaks at half-time, and the visitors immediately started to get on top, though they didn't finally apply any sustained pressure in front of goal until the last ten minutes or so. The Cottagers still look, for me, much the weakest of the six or seven teams chasing the other European places this year - though they have been punching a bit above their weight even to be in the middle of the pack, and their rivals all have their own flaws.

Wolves produced a predictably straightfoward demolition of Leicester - the only relegation team not to have produced even a glimmer of improvement so far in their fight to salvage some pride from a dismal season. Cunha/Strand Larsen/Ait-Nouri was a points-for-everyone FPL selection this week! Jamie Vardy's penalty probably shouldn't have been awarded in the first place (it was more a case of him running into Sa than Sa 'bringing him down'); and justice was done when he telegraphed which side he was going to put his spot-kick, didn't hit it that hard... and Sa gratefully saved it. But those were probably the two largest slices of FPL 'luck' in Saturday's games.

A fairly dull game at Bournemouth was salvaged for United by a late goal, deep in injury time. We'd seen a great early goal from Semenyo (his second in three games; or his second in eleven, if you're more of the 'glass half-empty' mindset!), and Ouattara curling a free-kick against an upright (Zabarnyi then putting a follow-up effort only just wide), and late in the game Bruno Fernandes put a 25-yard screamer just inches wide; but apart from these isolated moments of excitement, only the ever-lively Garnacho looked likely to create any danger, and he didn't do so very often. The game would probably have limped on to a 1-0 win for the home side, but for Evanilson's sending-off with 20-odd minutes left. That was fair enough, a good use of VAR to direct the referee to take a second look. The Brazilian was perhaps slightly unlucky: he took a wild high swish at the ball, reckless, but not deliberately targetting his opponent; but he lost his footing, and what had been his standing foot crunched into Mazraoui's leg just above the ankle; I'd say there was no intent there, but the impact was serious, and thus the sending-off could perhaps be justified; although it would be harsh to characterise such an obviously accidental collision as 'violent conduct'. It probably didn't help Evanilson's case that Tyler Adams had got away with a similar rash challenge early in the game on Garnacho, also reviewed by VAR but apparently deemed to be only 'borderline' for a red card; that one again was accidental, Adams losing his footing on the slippery surface as he flew into a full-blooded tackle - but his second foot never got anywhere near the United player, and although the tackling foot caught Garnacho hard, he had got a touch on the ball first, and looked to be trying to pull out slightly, keeping his foot low and turning it sideways so that the impact was with the inside of the instep more than the studs. The referee and VAR getting two tough calls right in the same game?? Maybe things are slowly improving with our officiating! The BPS, alas, is still a complete shambles: Hojlund, thanks to claiming the 'decisive' goal in an uneventful game, gets the maximum bonus, despite doing absolutely bugger-all in the game - even the goal was a somewhat fortuitous touch on Ugarte's already goal-bound effort. (I really don't see why it's any more 'decisive' than Semenyo's.... which was also a much better goal. But he only got 1 extra point! BPS is broken.)

Liverpool, as expected, cruised to the title, as Spurs just couldn't live with them. FPL managers who'd pinned their hopes on huge points from Salah and other Liverpool players will no doubt feel frustrated that the clean-sheet slipped away from them so easily, and that the final scoreline wasn't even greater.... and that Mo didn't get a hattrick (he somehow just failed to get on the end of Gakpo's hugely unselfish layoff to him, and then had Udogie take a second off him - putting the ball into his own net). The only minor refereeing controversy concerned Konate's heavy challenge on Tel in the box - but it was fairly clear that he'd played the ball cleanly and only clattered the Tottenham man with his follow-through, so that was never going to be a penalty.

Forest are faltering slightly on the run-in. They appeared to dominate possession - which is not usually how they like to play! - in the Thursday night game at the City Ground, but were unable to create many decent chances from it. Chris Wood, so often deadly this season, had only one effort on goal, and headed it extravagantly wide. And then two uncharacteristic defensive errors, from Aina and Milenkovic (and arguably Sels, too, who in both cases could have come out more quickly to mop up the danger created by his defenders allowing an attacker to get goal-side of them), gifted the visitors a pair of goals either side of half-time. Referee Darren England was a bit card-happy, booking a total of 8 players, and manager Nuno Espirito Santo; yet Keane Lewis-Potter and Christian Nørgaard were both extremely lucky to escape sendings-off for particularly blatant second yellow offences. And Brentford keeper Mark Flekken somehow claimed maximum bonus points under the bizarre BPS ratings, despite making only ONE - not particularly demanding - save on the highlights I saw.

There continue to be doubts about the application of VAR, but there weren't too many controversial moments in the weekend's games, and only Ben Johnson's first yellow card (leading to a later sending-off) seemed obviously unjust; although Evanilson's might have been slightly harsh too. And the refereeing in the Thursday night game was probably the worst of the entire week. The only big surprise with the 'Team of the Week' is that there are so many defenders - and so few strikers! - in it; well, and that Sa was the top keeper thanks to a penalty save, though later replaced by Flekken, who was even less worthy of dominating the bonus points in his game; while Brighton's Baleba and Ayari (and the not entirely unexpected, but still not super high-owned Macallister and Semenyo) were edging out the likes of Salah and Diaz and Barnes and Murphy and Bowen and Mitoma and Iwobi in midfield; but most of the 'big names' came up with something - unlike in many recent weeks! The big points-spread this week - unlike in the last two weeks, where it was down to a lot of randomness in the returns! - can mainly be attributed to a lot of people having left themselves without either the Free Hit or Wildcard chips to get around the problem of the Blank Gameweek and thus putting out very short teams; most decent players, using a chip wisely to optimise for the week, seemed to be scoring in the 70s and 80s (with the Forest v Brentford game still to play), while the global average was a paltry 38 points (on Monday; it did somehow rise to 47 by the end of the week - again, WTF???)!

This has been one of the least unpredictable gameweeks of the season so far; and also one of the best for the standard of the refereeing (compromised a bit by the Thursday game). Hence, it's barely looking a 3 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'. If only this weren't such a rarity!!!

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  Most people will have played the dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip by now; but if you haven't.... it's not too late to refuse to do so! I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season when it was introduced in GW23. [I worry that, if people don't protest vociferously about it, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you didn't feel able to join me in such an emphatic gesture, I hope you at least thought about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip (and still might refuse, if you've kept it till the last few gameweeks of the season).

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW34

 

There again don't seem to have been that many new injuries this week. 

But of course, this is a Blank Gameweek, with the four teams who had double-fixtures last week - City, Palace, Villa, and Arsenal - missing a game this week, because of the FA Cup Semi-Finals. (Nottingham Forest, also playing in the Cup this weekend, don't play their League game against Brentford until Thursday; but the League has decided that that's still part of Gameweek 34, rather than the more adjacent Gameweek 35, so..... no double for you!) Those who invested particularly heavily in doubling players last week are probably obliged to play their Free Hit (or Wildcard) this week to fill all the gaps those players will leave in their squad; and, if they haven't still got a rebuild chip to use for that.... a world of pain, taking multiple hits and/or putting out a short team.

In addition to those teams missing because of the FA Cup round, Chelsea, Manchester United, and Spurs might be decimated by precautionary rotations ahead of their massive European semi-finals this coming week.

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups, aiming to confine myself to just the injuries to players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL. [I currently find the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information - go check that out for more comprehensive coverage.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 34?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Mikel Merino and Ben White missed Arsenal's midweek game against Palace with renewed injury concerns - but at least Arsenal don't have a league game this weekend.

Bournemouth's Lewis Cook has been struggling with tendinitis in an ankle, and seems likely to miss this week.

Brighton's Jan-Paul van Hecke will be out for at least a week under 'concussion protocols', after suffering a severe blow to the head in the final moments of last week's game against Brentford.

Malo Gusto had to come off against Fulham last week with a leg muscle problem; apparently not too serious, but is out of contention for the Everton game.

James Tarkowski looks set to miss the remainder of the season after straining a hamstring in last weekend's game against City. This is bad news for Everton, for whom he really has been a lynchpin for several seasons now. Michael Keane is a decent enough defender, but I don't think he comes anywhere near Tarkowski's levels in providing constant organisation and inspiration; and when he came on to replace him last week, the side immediately started looking much more vulnerable at the back.

Rodrigo Muniz missed last week's game with a training injury, and could be out for a little while. (Good news for fans of Raul, who may fancy Fulham's prospects against Southampton this weekend, but were wary of unpredictable rotations between the two strikers....)

Stephy Mavididi - Leicester's only dangerous player these days - had to come off last week with a muscle strain, and could miss the rest of the season.

Diogo Dalot has joined Manchester United's long injury list this week - with a calf strain that might sideline him for a few weeks.

And Fabian Schar was withdrawn against Villa last week, feeling hamstring tightness - so is a minor doubt for this week.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Joao Pedro, of course, is starting a three-match 'violent conduct' ban for his silly bit of argy-bargy with Nathan Collins last weekend. But at least there were no new totting-up bans last week. Likewise Ipswich's Leif Davis, suspended for three games for his horrific challenge on Bukayo Saka. (And Chris Richards - unable to get his absurdly unjust double-yellow dismissal last Saturday reviewed - has already served his one-match ban in the midweek game at Arsenal; but he isn't  in action in the League this weekend, anyway.)

Armando Broja - recently (and unfathomably) favoured to start over Beto for Everton - is a Chelsea loanee, and hence ineligable to play this week.

Evan Ferguson, who hasn't yet been getting much of a look-in at West Ham anyway, is similarly unable to to appear against Brighton.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

The entire Spurs team.... just stumbling from bad to worse, utterly shambolic in the last couple of outings. (And now probably saving themselves for Bodo/Glimt....)

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Omar Marmoush and Nico O'Reilly (and Matheus Nunes) continue to look outstanding for City. But unfortunately, no-one else at the club does, which rather limits their appeal too - especially with a blank this week, and only one straightforward fixture in their last four....

Matheus Cunha and Jorgen Strand Larsen continue to look very promising forward picks with massively improved Wolves; and this week, you might even go for both of them!

Ollie Watkins and Marcus Rashford were both outstanding in one half of last week's double-header - but unfortunately, there's now a likelihood of inscrutable rotation between the two of them. And they too are blanking this weekend, because of the Cup.

So, acquisitions for this weekend are mainly focused on players from teams facing the bottom-end clubs, Leicester, Ipswich, and Southampton.... and West Ham and Spurs.

ADDENDUM: I omitted to say this originally, but I would be very tempted to have a punt on Trent Alexander-Arnold this week, after the rousing moment of his crucial late goal against Leicester. I remain not fully convinced about Trent's overall usefulness - how fully he fits a specific role for any given team, beyond his undoubted ability to occasionally swing a game with a moment of brilliance... which, marvellous though it is to have, is, unfortunately, not enough - and he's probably not yet 100% fit again, and I probably wouldn't be starting him any more, if he really is bound for Madrid in a couple of months, but... his spirits are obviously sky-high at the moment, and with the emotion surrounding the prospect of Liverpool clinching the title at Anfield (with four weeks left!!), I would be very surprised if Slot didn't start him against Spurs... and if he doesn't have a big game. And, since most people are surely playing a Free Hit or a Wildcard this week, it's a reshuffle, a gamble that's easy to take. Go on - you know you want to.

Most people have probably used the 'Assistant Manager' chip by now - wanting to keep the tail-end of the season free to play other chips, like Bench Boost, Free Hit, and Wildcard. If it is still in play, Vitor Pereira and Wolves look like the best bet for posting a big goal-tally against woeful Leicester. If you're chasing the siren table-bonus opportunity, David Moyes and Everton - as usual! - look the strongest prospect for that, against floundering Chelsea (although I wonder how much momentum Everton will lose with the absence of Tarkowski to hold them together). However, there are plenty of other possibilities, and Southampton caretaker manager Simon Rusk (who only costs 0.5 million!) against flakey Fulham, or (no, don't laugh!) United's Ruben Amorim against faltering Bournemouth could be tempting left-field options.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

AND PLEASE DON'T FORGET The Boycott; I loathe the pointless innovation of the 'Assistant Manager' chip - and I have been urging everyone to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use the chip, in protest. 

But if you couldn't bring yourself to do either of those things, please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip 

A little bit of Zen (39)

"I want to taste and glory in each day, and never be afraid to experience pain."

Sylvia Plath

It's almost as if she wanted to play FPL....!

It HAD to be said....

Football Meta's amiable and insightful Cormac has become one of my favourite Youtube tactical analysts over the past year or so. And I was particularly glad to see him just drop this video, detailing the shortcomings of the dread 'building out from the back' philosophy. (For me, he doesn't really go far enough in his critque...)

I find this tiresome dogma, which has become almost universal in the Premier League during the past decade, is stifling the life out of the game - it is the new anti-football.

It is painfully dull to watch.

It imposes far too much pressure on keepers and defenders - which, I think, wears them down mentally, undermines their confidence, and utlimately tends to make them more error-prone not just in build-up, but in all aspects of their play. (Because mistakes by a keeper or his defenders often tend to be castastrophic, yielding a goal and perhaps costing the game, their errors are placed under far closer scrutiny than those of attacking players, and tend to be given more weight than their successful defensive actions. And when they are on the ball so much, in dangerous situations, and committing costly errors - or at least coming close to doing so - so often, in almost every game, these poor buggers are often now getting pilloried by the fans.... when it's really not their fault; it's down to their manager's style of play.)

And it is founded on what I believe is a fundamental misconception: the fearful, over-conservative conviction that restricting the opponent's chances is more important to ensuring victory than creating your own. (The problem here is that you cannot play football purely as a matter of statistics, because the element of chance can never be eliminated. Even if you can prevent your opponent from getting any clearcut chances [which is just about impossible], while you manage, say, 10 chances,.... your finishing might not be good enough to convert any of the 10 chances, while your frustrated opponent might yet produce a worldie of a goal out of nothing, or perhaps pick up a soft penalty. This approach does not guarantee wins; in fact, it makes them painfully hard to achieve. If you're content to accept a more free-flowing, 'chaotic' sort of game, in which both sides might enjoy something like 20 chances, you should be able to win - and win more easily, and by bigger margins - so long as you can defend the chances made against you better than the other side defends against yours.)

Even if the core philosophy behind it weren't so misguided, it is still wrong-headed in practical terms. Its supposed justification is encapsulated in the tiresome mantra: "The quicker it goes up, the quicker it comes back." Build-up from the back started because managers like Pep became afraid that long balls out from the goalkeeper were too often resulting in an immediate loss of possession, and the more patient approach was seen as being a way to hold on to the ball more effectively,.... and eat minutes off the clock.

However, that's a very questionable proposition. If your goalkeeper can kick accurately, and if you have some well-drilled routines to create different medium- and long-range passing options for him, and if you have very quick players who can run into space behind the opposing back line to chase down a long ball over the top, or big strong players who can win most of their aerial duels and hold the ball up until other teammates can link up with them,.... there's really not that much of a problem in retaining possession from a keeper's kick. Well, yes, it is always going to be a little risky; and you might end up losing possession perhaps as much of half of the time (at worst...). But so what? Losing possession in the opposition defensive third of the pitch shouldn't be a big deal. You ought to be set up for a quick counter-press to win the ball back again, or at least hamper the speed and ease with which the other side can start to move the ball back up the pitch. And even if they do start quickly on the counter, you should have good defensive midfielders who can snuff out most such moves in the middle of the park.

A loss of possession deep in the opponent's half isn't often going to result in a goalscoring chance against you. A loss of possession in your own final third, however, almost always does.

And we are seeing such turnovers during failed build-up play more and more often in recent years.

Perhaps when building-out-from-the-back first started to appear, there was some clearer benefit to it. It had the advantage of novelty in its favour; and most sides weren't equipped to counter it very well.

Teams were still often only playing with one outright forward, or at most two; and 'high pressing' wasn't yet much of a thing. So, a back-four, or even a back-three, usually had a comfortable numerical advantage in the first line, even without having the keeper step up into the back-line to create an additional passer - and sides playing out from the back could thus usually bypass initial pressure quite easily.

But now,.... many more teams are playing with a front-three,... and are regularly pushing one or more of their midfielders or advanced full-backs up on to the opposing back-line as well; sometimes, the numerical advantage is with the attacking team. And even though it mostly still isn't, pressing has become much more sophisticated and well-drilled: teams will choose their moments to press most vigorously, saving their energy for when it can be most effective, most devastating; and they'll target particular players or areas of the pitch, so that, even though they are outnumbered across the whole back-line, they can quickly achieve a crucial overload in the area around the ball.

The slow build-up idea might have 'worked' up to a point, when it was a surprising innovation. But things have moved on, the game has caught up with it - and overtaken it. 

Any tactical idea becomes limiting, self-damaging if it is too obvious, too predictable. And we now see so many managers who are so insistent on the slow build-up that they almost never stray from it, never allow their players to vary the way they play out. And that makes them very easy to 'read', easy to press,... easy to nick the ball off in dangerous positions.

I'm not sure that building-out-from-the-back ever really worked all that well. But it has now clearly become an absolute liability for many teams.

And did I mention, it's SO FUCKING BORING to watch? Aesthetics matter; this is 'the beautiful game', after all. Most fans, I'm sure, would far rather see their team come out on the losing end of a 4-3 humdinger of a game occasionally than watch them grinding out arid 1-0 and 2-0 wins most weeks. I know I would, anyway.

I think, I hope we are now seeing the last days of ponderous slow build-up from the back, in favour of more diverse, dynamic approaches to moving the ball forward from your own penalty area. It's been a long time coming. Too, too long....

Not such a BAD Double Gameweek....

A lot of folks online are griping and whingeing about what a rotten Double Gameweek it turned out to be...

I say they need to try to cultivate a more balanced perspective.

Gameweek 33 was a bit of a mixed bag: not great, but far from terrible either.

It was in fact much better for FPL managers who'd gone big on the doubling teams than I had anticipated (perhaps straying too far towards the pessimistic pole on this one....). Manchester City and Crystal Palace, somewhat improbably, hung on to clean sheets in their Saturday games; and City managed two wins, in games they might have been expected to struggle in, while Palace picked up two plucky draws in games they were generally expected to lose. And Villa pulled off quite the surprise with their emphatic win over Newcastle. Few of the main doubling players missed out through injury or rotation, so most ended up with decent points. Meanwhile, those FPL managers who'd opted not to pick up too many extra doubling players were hard hit by low or blank returns from the majority of the most fancied Single Gameweek players: Salah and Diaz and Jota, Isak and Murphy and Barnes, Elanga and Gibbs-White, Palmer and Jackson, Doucoure and Beto, Cunha and Strand Larsen. Hence, only 3 single-game players - Sessegnon, Mbeumo, and Wissa - wound up in the 'Team of the Week',.... where I'd expected there might be at least 4 or 5, maybe even 6 or 7 or 8.

However, only Trossard, among the doublers, came in with a really big haul. And many of the best returns of the week came from less expected (lower-owned!) doubling players like Henderson, Zinchenko, Kiwior, and Matheus Nunes.

Single-game Bryan Mbeumo produced the second biggest total of the week. And alhough only a few of them made it into the 'Team of the Week', several of the best single-game players were close to the best performances of the week,.... and somewhat better than the majority of the doublers.

This Double Gameweek 33 didn't look all that promising; and it had the potential to be a bit of a disaster for people who'd bet big on the doubling teams. In fact it worked out pretty well for them - rather better than could have been reasonably expected! - and most of them probably did slightly better for the week than the majority of those who had moderated their selections of doubling players. The advantage was perhaps only very slight; but it could easily have been zero.... or less-than-zero!  You folks dodged a bullet; and you should be bloody grateful!

Luck-o-Meter (33)

 

Astonishingly, there were few new injuries emerging over the preceding week. But there was still huge uncertainty around the toll the midweek Eurepean games might have taken - emotionally as well as physically - on the teams involved, and how much player rotation we might expect as a result of that,... especially with four teams now going on to face two-leg semi-final ties which will define their season.

Brentford and Brighton produced an entertaining game, though the south-coast side still aren't firing on all cylinders, and look particularly wonky in defence. Oddly, they had their best spell of pressure after Joao Pedro got sent off early in the second half (his frequent petulance really is a bit of a problem); but they were no match for Mbeumo at his best. Welbeck had a penalty claim, but there wasn't much in it: he was clearly jumping over/through Flekken's outstretched arm rather than actually being brought down by it.

Crystal Palace, rather to my surprise, bounced back fairly strongly from their abject display against Newcastle a few days ago - but were still strangely toothless. The big talking point here was Chris Richards's unjust dismissal on the stroke of half-time: his first yellow card had been extremely harsh, and the second one wasn't a foul at all (very, very minimal contact, if any). It was all the more galling for Palace that Bournemouth midfielder Alex Scott had been let off for a second bookable offence only shortly earlier (though that, too, would have been a very harsh sending-off, I feel). Luckily, it didn't really affect the subsequent course of the game (although it will have been annoying for the more than 14% of Fantasy managers who own Eze, seeing the defender's dismissal lead to Eze's tactical withdrawal at the interval): Palace dug in resolutely, and held on for a goalless draw, in what was ultimately a rather lifeless game, with both sides miles below their best.

Everton, strangely, seemed to set out to contain City and play for the clean sheet. On recent form, you would have fancied their chances of getting a win against their misfiring visitors if they'd gone after them (and the decision to start Broja rather than the recently excellent Beto up front was particularly mystifying). Everton did, in fact, have most of the better chances, with Tarkowski looping an early header against a post, and Ortega having to make excellent saves from Branthwaite and Doucoure. DeBruyne started, and played most of the 90, but had fairly little impact; and you suspect that he'll be rested in the midweek game against Villa. Everton probably would have held on to their hard-won point, if defensive lynchpin Tarkowski hadn't pinged a hamstring 5 minutes into the second half; they immediately started looking much more vulnerable at the back when Michael Keane replaced him, and eventually gave up 2 goals in the closing minutes - producing an unexpected, and somewhat undeserved win for Pep's men.

Ugochukwu's injury-time winner at West Ham felt well-earned: Southampton had been much the better team, for most of a rather drab game, with 4 or 5 good chances before that clincher. Jarrod Bowen's reliable finish from a quick breakaway was the only high spot for the home side. (Fullkrug's 'goal' was rightly ruled out for barging/holding the keeper.) I'm not sure Graham Potter will still be there next season.

The big surprise at Villa Park was that - for the first time this season - rather than looking deflated and weary after a big European game, Villa actually recovered strongly and produced one of their best League performances of the season. While Newcastle were short of energy, wearied by their big win over Palace in midweek.... and star man Isak barely got on the ball. The final scoreline, though, was a little flattering: Villa needed a big slice of luck to get under way, with a huge deflection on Watkins's opening effort; and further out-of-the-blue moments with Dan Burn's unfortunate own goal, and then Onana getting a pinger from the edge of the box near the end!! Villa fans, however, may feel that their luck was deserved, and perhaps even that on balance, things didn't particularly go in their favour: Watkins thundered efforts against the woodwork twice, and Ramsey once; Watkins also had a penalty shout ignored (fair enough, I think; Schar stuck out his foot unwisely as the forward passed him, but there was very minimal contact, and Watkins was clearly 'looking for it' - might have been booked for 'diving'); and Newcastle's goal started with a free-kick in the middle of the pitch that should have gone against Livramento rather than for him. An early upset in this extended gameweek for managers who fancied Newcastle to repeat their recent big wins (Isak, Murphy, Schar and Livramento are all high-owned at the moment), and those who - like me, I confess! - were sceptical about how Villa would bounce back from their disappointment against PSG.

Damn, Sunday's games were a bit of a yawn. I'd planned my travels to be able to spend two successive weekends in the best sports bar I know in Asia (it's not a high bar, unfortunately...), but I'd run out of enthusiasm by half-time, and toddled back to my hotel at 9pm... Even Arsenal's demolition of Ipswich was dully efficient, rather than a thrill-ride. And the scoreline was perhaps a little flattering: although they had lots of good chances, with Palmer making a few fine saves, and Odegaard hitting the foot of the post, Nwaneri's late fourth clattered off two defenders to wrong-foot keeper Palmer, and both of Trossard's goals were slightly scuffed efforts that squeaked through a defender's legs. Again, there's not much argument about the sending-off of Leif Davis, for his dreadful lunge through the back of Saka's right heel - a challenge that could well have torn ligaments or the Achilles tendon. There must be some surprise, though, that Arteta had chosen to start Saka in such an unimportant, unchallenging game; and then that, after taking a crunching hit like that, he wasn't immediately subbed off for assessment  He had to be withdrawn 10 minutes into the second half, and the injured foot was immediately strapped up and plastered in ice-packs. Arteta said afterwards that this was just 'precautionary' and he didn't think it was anything too bad - but I'm not so sure. And I don't know why he'd be taking such unnecessary chances with a player so valuable. (Further misery for Saka owners in that Odgaard's slight, non-decisive touch on his cutback to Trossard denied him the 'assist' for the first goal.)

Chelsea dominated possession without achieving much penetration at Fulham, but did well to fight back after going behind to Iwobi's goal-out-of-nothing (which surely should have been disallowed for Sessegnon fouling Reece James to gain possession at the start of the move). Chelsea finally achieved a first away win in four-and-a-half months - but they left it very late, with Neto producing the 'Goal of the Month' deep into injury time.

Manchester United v Wolves was a woefully uneventful game - until Sarabia's sublime free-kick goal in the closing minutes. United dominated possession but couldn't generate many decent chances from it, an squandered all the ones they did (all coming from Garnacho, who must be feeling particularly frustrated that all his good work counted for nothing): Mason Mount and Bruno Fernandes - of all people! - were guilty of particularly glaring misses. The major surprise element in this eminently forgettable match was Wolves keeper Jose Sa feeling a muscle injury in the warm-up and having to be replaced at the last moment by understudy Dan Bentley - a bitter blow for the 3.2% of FPL managers who rely on Sa; and a sharp reminder to everyone that you really can't afford to be without a decent back-up keeper.

Were Liverpool getting just a little bit nervous, or was it just poor luck - that they could have so many chances and not score.... until Trent's cracking volley, when he came on for a 20-minute cameo at the end? Salah being played in behind by a lovely slick passing move after just a couple of minutes, but seeing his shot ricochet off the inside of both posts was a portent of how the whole game would go for them. Salah didn't play badly, and his 'blanks' this season have been very rare: it was a huge surprise that he didn't manage to get on the scoresheet against such a flakey defence. On the other hand, Liverpool were somewhat fortunate not to go behind when a scrambled Leiecester goal was ruled out for Daka's very slight nudge on Alisson as he'd tried to recover the ball on the byline. And indeed, the referee might well have stopped play - probably should have - for a possible serious head injury to Luke Thomas (who'd been laid out by a knee in the back of his head from his keeper) before Trent's goal. Leicester v Liverpool nearly being a goalless draw... nearly being a 1-0 home win?? Nobody was betting on outcomes like that! Funny old game, indeed.

Spurs looked very flat and uninspiring at home on Monday night, and might easily have conceded more than 2 in the first half against a very fluent Forest. Chris Wood's early goal being disallowed as offside was close-ish, but looked about right. The home side increasingly came back into it through the second half, requiring a few really fine saves from Matz Sels and an acrobatic clearance off the line by Harry Toffolo; and they eventually got a late consolation goal from Richarlison. But overall, another performance that the Spurs fans cannot have been at all happy with. It's beginning to look as if everyone is just concentrating on the Europa League as their 'Get Out Of Jail' card this season.

It looks as if City once again laboured to a win they scarcely deserved at home against Villa on Tuesday night. Rasfhord had managed to break in behind straight from the kick-off and slammed a fierce cross-shot past Ortega - but it was one of those that cannoned off the base of the post and rebounded straight into the hands of the surprised and grateful keeper. Later, they were let down (again) by Emi Martinez, going through a slightly flakey phase, who let Bernardo Silva's shot (firm, but not that challenging) somehow go straight through him. And it was rough on Marmoush fans that his cutback to create this goal was not credited as an assist because it took a slight deflection off a Villa defender's heel on its way through to Silva. The only bit of dubious refereeing evident in the highlights was that Craig Pawson apparently didn't see Ruben Dias's very obvious collision with Jacob Ramsey in the box in real-time, and needed a helpful whisper in the ear from his VAR colleague to prompt him to correct his oversight. (And WHY is Marcus Rashford on penalties?? He managed to put this one away, but he doesn't look at all convincing about it.) It looks like it was a fairly even game, but Villa were perhaps feeling the effect of having played three games in a week a bit more towards the end; City kept pushing to the last, and were eventually rewarded with an excellent Matheus Nunes goal deep into injury-time.

Arsenal twice took the lead, but twice lost it again - to a Palace who were better than in their awful midweek game last week, but still didn't defend at all well. Saka, apparently miraculously recovered from the crunching blow he took to the back of his ankle barely 100 hours previously, was chanced for 30 minutes off the bench, but had little impact. (I find that staggering: a week ahead of the PSG game, I would not even have put him on the bench here - Terminator-like though his physical indestructibility may appear to be!)  The one potential controversy here was a second 'goal' for Arsenal when Martinelli headed over the line from inches out after Timber had heroically hooked the ball back from the byline. The linesman appeared at first to have rather mystifyingly adjudged that someone had been offside; VAR hastily overruled that, without explanation, but then took a while to decide that Timber had failed to keep the ball in play - although it was very, very tight, and the supposedly 'decisive' picture shared with the fans was not clear enough to justify the verdict. Bitter gall for Timber or Marttinelli owners: such is FPL! At the end, it was was Saliba, of all people, who gave away the win, playing the ball straight to Mateta 25 yards out to claim an equaliser at the death; a lot of pundits were eulogising the quality of his finish, but - with Raya having come forward to the edge of his box to assist in build-up - the goal was completely unguarded.... and I think I can usually hit an empty net from 25 yards! (Saliba has looked a little bit error-prone of late. I suspect the stress of being - now - the only invariable starter in the Arsenal defence is starting to wear him down mentally, and he would probably benefit from being given a game's rest here and there. But Arteta's greatest weakness, for me, is that his terror of defeat is such that he seems to feel unable to ever risk dropping his best players: Saka, Saliba, Rice.... will play almost every minute of every game, so long as they can walk. This could backfire on him big time in the Champions League semi-final, I fear.)

It wasn't quite such a terrible Double Gameweek as I'd feared, with Palace and City surprisingly claiming clean sheets at the weekend, and City in fact managing 2 wins (though not terribly convincing ones...), while Palace picked up two draws in games they were generally expected to lose, and Villa somehow pulled off a drubbing against up-and-down Newcastle!! Only 3 single gameweek players  - Mbeumo, Wissa, and Sessengnon - ultimately made the 'Team of the Week' (barely half as many as might have been expected, with some big names like Salah surprisingly coming up blank), although there were a fair few more knocking on the door, and of the doublers, only Leandro Trossard racked up a really big haul; not too many others got into double figures, and the best of them were unexpected heroes, players that almost no-one would have owned - Matheus Nunes, Nico O'Reilly, Oleks Zinchenko, Yakub Kiwior. The failure of many of the most popular doubling picks - Saliba, Rice, Merino, Rogers, Rashford, Munoz, Eze, Mateta, Gvardiol, DeBruyne, Marmoush - to come up with very much.... will have been a huge disappointment to most FPL managers who bet big on the double. But it might have been very much worse; many of the biggest single gameweek threats - Salah, Isak, Strand Larsen - came up with nothing, so they probably ended up doing better than most players who opted not to go for so many doublers.

However, it was a very strange week, with an absolutely enormous points spread: the week's top performer got a colossal 158 points, more than 100 above the global average! However a great many players, possibly the majority, only got something very close to, or even well below the global average; and it appears from my country league that most 'good scores' for the week were only somewhere in the 60s. Funny old game, indeed.

This is only looking a 4 out of 10 kind of week on the 'Luck-o-Meter': a few contentious refereeing decisions (and there are still a lot of problems with how VAR decisions are being reached, and communicated), but only the Chris Richards sending-off and the Newcastle and Fulham goals were clearly wrong; and, astonishingly, there seem to have been no ridiculously tight offside calls this week.  However, there have been a number of surprises in selections, performances and results - which almost bumps it up to a 5 or 6....

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  Most people will have played the dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip by now; but if you haven't.... it's not too late to refuse to do so! I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season when it was introduced in GW23. [I worry that, if people don't protest vociferously about it, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you didn't feel able to join me in such an emphatic gesture, I hope you at least thought about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip (and still might refuse, if you've kept it till the last few gameweeks of the season).

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW33

Amazingly, there don't seem to have been many major new injuries this week. But once again, the main uncertainties will arise from how physically and emotionally strung out - and hence, below par in performance - Arsenal and Villa and Spurs and Manchester United and Chelsea may be after their big European games in midweek. And with all of those but Villa now facing semi-finals in those competitions shortly, precautionary 'rest rotations' are a huge hazard for FPL managers (this is why you really need a good bench at this time of year!).

Of course, it's a Double Gameweek; but it's a very bad one - curb your enthusiasm.

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups, aiming to confine myself to just the injuries to players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL. [I currently find the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information - go check that out for more comprehensive coverage.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 33?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Jorginho suffered bruised ribs against Brentford last weekend, and looks like being unavailable this week.

Ipswich's Liam Delap is also suffering with bruised ribs, and only got short minutes against Chelsea last week.

Ederson strained a groin muscle against Palace last week, and his recovery timeline is uncertain - so, Stefan Ortega will be deputising for him again.

At Manchester United, Joshua Zirkzee pulled a hamstring in last week's game and has been ruled out for the rest of the season, while promising young defender Ayden Heaven missed out against Lyon in midweek with a training-ground knock. But at least Luke Shaw is back in contention again now, after managing an extended appearance in the European game.

Southampton striker Paul Onuachu had to go off against Villa last Saturday with an ankle problem, and remains a doubt.

Postecoglou was trying to be upbeat about the condition of James Maddison after he was laid out by a heavy collision with the Frankfurt keeper on Thursday night, but 'concussion protocols' must surely keep him out this weekend.... and possibly next as well? Son Heung-min had to drop out of last week's game at Wolves with a foot injury, and was unable to be involved against Frankfurt either.

At West Ham, Aaron Wan-Bissaka is a slight doubt with a bruised toe.

Wolves's Matt Doherty and Jean-Ricner Bellegarde were both withdrawn in the Spurs game 'as a precaution', but remain slight doubts for this weekend. Having an excuse to rest Bellegarde might be convenient for Vitor Pereira, since it allows an easy path to reintroducing Matheus Cunha - who will surely get in a sulk if he's left on the bench much longer.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Remarkably - we have no new suspensions this week.

But all the teams that just played in Europe - Arsenal, Villa, Manchester United, Spurs, Chelsea - are likely to be seriously fatigued and below their best.... and (except for poor Villa) may be resting key players ahead of the semi-finals. That is particularly a concern in regard to Bukayo Saka, who I would expect to get very short minutes in the League until the PSG games are out of the way.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

It would be tempting to omit Asensio, Eze, and Saka for crimes against penalty-taking in this past week!

But on a more serious note, there must now be grave doubts about retaining any Palace players: they don't have the easiest run-in, and their confidence must be dented by suffering two such heavy defeats inside a few days. While they were just a bit unlucky in the close-fought game with City at the weekend, against Newcastle in midweek they were absolutely abysmal.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Kevin DeBruyne, Omar Marmoush, and Nico O'Reilly were outstanding in the comeback win against Palace last Saturday. However, the rest of the City team were still pretty poor.... Moreover, O'Reilly is a surprisingly expensive 4.9 million, and is - unfortunately - classified in the game as a midfielder, which greatly lessens his appeal. Marmoush, though in impressive form, is still probably not quite a top three forward pick (outside of the current double gameweek, anyway). And KDB.... well, he's made a bit of a habit of rousing himself to a superb 'comeback' performance soon after returning from a long absence, but he's rarely managed to hit quite the same heights subsequently. He's nearly 34 now, and has struggled with a string of persistent injuries over the last few seasons: it's very difficult to imagine him playing a full 90 minutes very often, and certainly not twice within four days.

Most people have probably done with the dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip now - wanting to keep the last few weeks of the season (and the Double Gameweek resulting from the FA Cup Semi-Finals) open for playing their Bench Boost (and/or, perhaps, their Triple Captain chip), while keeping their Free Hit and/or 2nd Wildcard available till now to help deal with these tricky blanks and doubles at the end of the season. If anyone does still have AssMan in play, Arsenal and Mikel Arteta are surely the favourites for this week: they're the only one of the doubling teams that look likely to register 2 wins (and probably at least 1, maybe 2 clean sheets as well); none of the others looks to have a great chance of managing even 1 win. Some might fancy Ange and his Spurs to pull off a table-bonus upset against Forest, but in the midst of their battle for European consolation, and possibly - probably - without Son and Maddison this week, that looks extremely unlikely to me. David Moyes's Everton, however, could well nick something off still rickety Manchester City....

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

AND PLEASE DON'T FORGET The Boycott; I loathe the pointless innovation of the 'Assistant Manager' chip - and I have been urging everyone to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use the chip, in protest. 

And if you couldn't bring yourself to do either of those things, please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip 

A little bit of Zen (38)

"How much time he gains who does not look to see what his neighbour says or does or thinks, but only at what he does himself..."

Marcus Aurelius

Picks of the Week - DGW33

Which players should we covet specifically for this week's Double Gameweek??

Well, this should even quicker than last week's review of the options....

NONE.

Or at least, none that you don't have already.

If there are a lot of doubling teams to choose from, you can make sure you only get the best players from the best teams, with the best fixtures. And you can try to minimise the number of players you have who are pitched against each other in the same match.

With a smaller Double Gameweek like this, you can't do that. You only have 4 teams to choose from - and, inevitably, they're all playing each other. And the other team they're playing is a daunting opponent, for three of the four. Only Arsenal actually have a decent double-fixture. The others are best avoided, at least for defensive assets, as it's difficult to have much confidence that they'll win either game; certainly, clean sheets don't look very likely for anyone.

Moreover, apart from Arsenal, the doubling teams aren't all that good - only mid-table sides this year: good mid-table sides, yes, but they've been so inconsistent, and have such glaring defensive frailties, that they're left scrapping with the likes of Fulham and Brighton for the chance of a place in the lesser European competitions next year, rather than challenging hard for Champions League qualification: Palace, Villa, and City are just not teams to be all that enthused about at the moment.

Loading up on doubling players should be dismissed as undesirable/impossible if you haven't kept your Free Hit or Wildcard to get yourself out of trouble in the following week when those players will all miss a fixture. And if you use the Free Hit to get around the Blank Gameweek, you're then left with all those players for the rest of the season. Do you really want 10 or 12 players from those teams, with their remaining runs of fixtures?? Do you even want 7 or 8?? I would suggest NOT. So, you won't just be burning transfers to bring players in for this week, you'll probably be burning more to get rid of most of them again as soon as possible. It is very, very unlikely that any doubling player will give you enough of a points lift to justify using two transfers on them in a short space of time.

I would rather be considering moving out some players from the doubling teams, as I really don't see much value from Palace or Villa players with their fixtures.

Arsenal have a good chance of picking up one clean sheet, possibly two - so it could be tempting to load up on their defence and/or get Raya in goal. But as I just noted above, you might not want to be overstocked with Arsenal defensive assets beyond this week, as their next three opponents - Bournemouth, Liverpool, and Newcastle - are quite challenging (and they'll probably be somewhat distracted by the forthcoming Champions League showdown with PSG). Most people have William Saliba already, since there was never that much to choose between him and Gabriel as the most reliable defensive pick for FPL this year, and for those who hadn't picked him already, he was the natural replacement for Gabriel when he tore his hamstring at the start of this month. There's a bit too much uncertainty about rotation in the rest of the Arsenal defence, though Jurrien Timber or perhaps Ben White could be worth gambling on. David Raya, though, I would be wary of, because of the following fixtures. As for attacking assets - well, they don't have a striker, none of their attacking midfielders have established regular goalscoring form, and there's too much likelihood of rotation in those positions. Some people are getting over-optimisitic about Bukayo Saka's prospects now that he's back from injury - but I think he's likely to be wrapped in cotton wool and saved for the PSG games. The in-form (and rarely rested) Declan Rice would be my pick, if you are going for another Arsenal man. Trossard, Merino, or Martinelli could always come up with something; but it's so difficult to guess if they'll start in both games.

Most people already have Omar Marmoush (well, over 31% own him), who's been in excellent form lately - although arguably not a top three striker pick, without the benefit of an additional fixture. Many have Josko Gvardiol as well (and indeed, have held on to him all season): his goalscoring is phenomenal, but his opportunities to register attacking contributions are severely limited when he plays in central defence; and City still look like they're going to be leaking a lot of goals. All the attacking midfield options are far too at risk of unpredictable rotations. Kevin DeBruyne is the only one who'd tempt me, after his sensational performance against Palace last week; but he is turning 34 in a couple of months, and definitely starting to show his age - I fear it's very doubtful that he'll play a full 90 minutes twice within a few days.

Many people have Morgan Rogers (or Asensio or Rashford) already. Fine to keep them, and keep your fingers crossed, for this week; but it's difficult to imagine them getting much against Newcastle or City. And Villa, alas, have usually been dreadful immediately after one of their big European games; that's likely to be even worse this time, with them being emotionally depleted as well by the narrow loss to PSG. I certainly wouldn't touch any Villa defensive assets with a bargepole for these two games. And Ollie Watkins isn't worth getting in just for this week.

Palace, I fear, may be badly demoralised by the two heavy spankings they've just suffered; these defeats might signal a collapse in form. Part of the problem might be that they just don't have a deep enough squad at the moment to cope with playing twice in a week - and they're now looking at having had to play four times wihin 10 or 11 days. Mateta looks to be out of form, perhaps inhibited by his painful ear injury. Sarr has been predictably disappointing (just not a reliable goalscorer, only a once-in-a-blue-moon kind of guy); and I wouldn't want to take a chance on having Munoz or Henderson for a pair of games they're very likely to lose. (Indeed, I can see them not winning another game this season.)  Only Eberechi Eze might be worth having from the Eagles.

I think we might well see a particularly emphatic exposé of the Double Gameweek Delusion this week. Double-fixtures are not automatically better than single-fixtures; they are usually only worth pursuing if at least one of them is a good fixture. (And in this DGW, NONE of them are - except for Arsenal's.)  Even then, you have to bear in mind other factors as well, like the transferred-in players' prospects in the following weeks.

Some people are going crazy for the DGW, using a chip or spending 'hits' to bring in the maximum 12 doublers - even dropping the best of their current squad to do so,... some even dropping Mo Salah! That is INSANITY. Mo Salah, with a game against awful Leicester, is very likely to be the week's highest-scoring player (yes, even without a second game!). And if he isn't, it will probably be Luis Diaz or Diogo Jota; or maybe Mbeumo against Brighton, or Iwobi against Chelsea, or Bowen against Southampton, or Elanga against Spurs, or Evanilson against Palace, or Cunha or Strand Larsen against Manchester United. The doubles this week are nothing to get excited about, and I don't see doubling players dominating the 'Team of the Week' (they're bound to get some representation; but maybe only 4 or 5 spots, not all 11!). You ignore the most promising single-gameweek players at your peril.

The great CHIP Dilemma

This conundrum presents itself every year - In what order should we play our Free Hit and 2nd Wildcard chips?

In general, the Free Hit would seem better suited to helping you dance around the problem of a big Blank Gameweek - when many top teams, and hence many of your best players, may be missing from the action for one week only.

And the Wildcard is traditionally preserved for use just ahead of the big Double Gameweek, which usually follows close after it,... but this year, oddly, is going to precede it. (You might, of course, use your Wildcard in the Double Gameweek; but a big Double is usually a good opportunity to get the most out of the Bench Boost chip - and, since you can only use one chip per gameweek, people tend to use their Wildcard to 'set up' their squad to optimise all 15 players with the best fixtures the week before the Double so that they can use Bench Boost the following week.)

However, there's no hard-and-fast rule: you always need to stay flexible in your approach to chip play.

The optimum use of the chips in any given year will depend on how the fixtures break on those crucial weekends (do the blanks/doubles involve a lot of your players, or not?), and on the subsequent run of fixtures (do you actually want to keep most of your doublers for more than that one gameweek?).

For Gameweeks 33/34 this year, with only a small number of teams involved, and mostly not the most popular ones in FPL at the moment - it was really looking as though, for most FPL managers, you'd probably only want additional players from the doubling teams in GW33, but not thereafter (indeed, you might even want to reduce or eliminate your exposure to those teams by removing some of your long-term holds from them, because their form was stuttering or ther run-ins looked a little shakey). In contrast, many of the players you were loading up on in the subsequent Blank Gameweek 34 were not just one-week makeweights, but players coming into form and/or facing a promising final month of fixtures, players you would want to keep for the remainder of the season.

And thus.... playing the Free Hit for the double in GW33 and the Wildcard for the blank in GW34 was probably the more sensible option this time around.

It can work out either way. But it's usually very much better one way than the other - and that can be a tricky choice to make.... And the answer could be different in each year. [At least, that's how it is now - since we no longer have any truly big Blank/Double Gameweeks to worry about, as the FA Cup Quarter-Final weekend has been removed from the League programme from this year. In the past, with a really huge Blank and Double resulting from up to 8 rearranged fixtures, the case for using Free Hit to survive the BIG Blank was pretty overwhelming...]

Luck-o-Meter (32)

Well, amazingly, no major new injuries appear to have resulted from this week's batch of BIG European games. But we still had quite a few problems hanging over our heads from last week... And with HUGE European second-legs loomng for five teams, the risk of rest rotations is a big hazard for this week.

This week also sees the long overdue introduction of the Semi-Automated Offside Technology, replacing the laborious, inaccurate, unconvincing manual placing of thick coloured lines on the freezeframe view with detailed computer graphic renderings of the players' relative positions. It's not going to be infallible (though the main problem with 'fairness' lies in  the framing of the Law itself; we shouldn't be seeking to make offside determinations to a fraction of an inch - if part of the torso is 'level', overlapping with a defender's, the position of an attacker's toe or a nose shouldn't matter), and it's going to take some time to convince us that it's even moderately accurate and reliable, but.... it's got to be an improvement, surely. [ESPN has quite a good overview of how the new system is supposed to work and why it's been introduced.]

Well, what an absurd bish-bosh of a game we had to start the weekend off - one of the best games of the entire season: not perhaps the greatest football, but the most entertaining end-to-end contest. There were so many potential 'turning points' one might argue the significance of in this (the xG numbers were ridiculous!): Henderson making a great early save from Marmoush, DeBruyne crashing a shot against the post shortly afterwards, KDB then squeezing a free-kick in off the inside of the post to launch the improbable comeback, McAtee spurning three excellent chances before finally converting one,... and, of course, the amphetamines with which Pep obviously spiked the half-time lemon juice. For me, the slightly harsh early booking of Kamada could have been a more subtly decisive moment, subsequently robbing Palace of some of their bite in midfield. (And the withdrawal of Mateta for Hughes by Glasner at half-time was a bit of a head-scratcher - was it 'tactical'? What was the idea??) But really the game swung on the new offside decision-making system: Eze's apparent second - which would have put Palace 3-0 up, and even a superlative DeBruyne and Marmoush would have struggled to inspire a comeback from that - looked onside, but he was adjudged to have been offside by the length of his boot (possibly the 'correct' decision, but it will be hard to earn fans' confidence in calls like this; and it obviously doesn't feel fair to chalk off a good goal for such a trivial infraction), whereas young Nico O'Reilly looked well offside in providing the pre-assist for the crucial third City goal early in the second half, but was apparently 'on'.... by the width of a ruckle on the shoulder of a defender's shirt - WTF? And although the decisions themselves are being produced fairly quickly, there may still be issues about the speed with which the justifying images can be rendered - or shared with the public: the graphic of the Eze offside didn't show up on TV until nearly a quarter of an hour later!  Sharing the images promptly is going to be a key part of winning public confidence in this new system.

S9, a wonderful spectacle at The Etihad, and a fine swansong performance by one of the all-time Premier League greats, but.... boy, oh boy, City dodged a bullet in this one; in at least half of the possible universes, they must have gone down to Palace's blistering start. (A uniquely FPL concern in this match was Eze taking a painful whack to the leg early in the second half, and looking like he might have to be pulled just shy of the hour. He was visibly slowed down by the challenge, and was withdrawn less than 20 minutes later - so, I worry he might now be a doubt for the Wednesday game against Newcastle.)

Leicester managed to score a goal for the first time in three months! Then they did it again. And they nearly nicked a win in the dying minutes when El-Khannouss cracked one against the far post. The visitors might also feel aggrieved that they didn't get a  first-half penalty when McAteer was barged to the ground by Estupinan in the corner of the box: one of those incidents that might be arguable, but at least deserved a good long ponder from VAR - and didn't seem to get it. There wasn't any doubt about either of the Brighton penalties at least; the mystery there was why VAR needed to intervene when they were both so obvious they really should have been spotted by the on-pitch referee straight away. But damn, Ruud van Nistelrooy very nearly pulled off a table-bonus win - which would have brought much joy to the 427 FPL managers brave or foolish enough to have chosen him for their 'Assistant Manager' this week.

Doucoure's late, late winner for Everton at Forest was just about deserved, in what had been an entertaining stalemate. With a few of their best players absent or compromised - Aina still in the treatment room, Elanga unable to start, Wood only just back from the troublesome hip injury, looking rather ponderous - Forest were inevitably a bit flat, but looked much more dangerous in the second half. I'm pleased I predicted the likelihood of an 'upset' here - Moyes keeps pulling off these results! Both Wood and Beto got tumbled to the ground inside the box; both might have been fairly light or 'accidental' collisions, but they were both the sort of penalty appeals that are often given - and they seemed substantial enough to merit far more than the apparently very cursory VAR attention they were given. And Jarrad Branthwaite was very, very lucky to escape a red card (actually, any card at all??) for blatantly shoulder-charging Jota Silva in the side of the head. It was an obviously deliberate piece of thuggery, and the kind of challenge which could cause a very serious injury (probably did cause a concussion - which is another issue; why wasn't Silva taken off the field for checks?). What was VAR doing here?

Villa were pretty lacklustre against Southampton, as they invariably have been after their big European games this year - only really starting to look much of a threat in the final half hour or so. Even then, they needed a bit of luck - with Watkins's smart volleyed chip for the breakthrough only just scudding in off the underside of the bar, and two very soft penalty awards breaking the home side's morale, even if they weren't converted (both incidents were blocks rather than challenges, where the Villa player clearly initiated contact with a defender's outstretched leg [actually, for the second one, Stephens played the ball!]: I wouldn't have given either of them; and what on earth was going on with Asensio taking the second, and hitting it in exactly the same place as the first, allowing Ramsdale to make exactly the same save??); and Emi Martinez had to make two very sharp saves, one early from Archer, one late from Fernandes, to spare Villa some potential embarrassment. FPL managers who rushed to bring in more Villa players ahead of their upcoming double gameweek are probably mostly a bit disappointed with their returns here... and they might be even more disappionted after next week.

Arsenal dropped points again against Brentford (again, not exactly unexpected). What was unexpected, in a fairly dour encounter, was that Rice would combine with Partey for a high-speed breakaway goal (far more of a Mbeumo-and-Wissa thing)! Or that Saka, on for the last 25 minutes, would fail to convert when presented with the ball on the edge of the box by one of the worst goalkeeping errors of the season (Flekken decides to step out of his box to deal with a long clearance from Raya which is obviously going to come all the way through to him to gather safetly in his hands... and then elects to try to control the ball rather than hoof it to safety - WTF???). The BBC pundits were outraged that Norgaard got away with a rash scissor-tackle on Martinelli - but he trapped the Arsenal man's legs between his own rather than making any heavy contact with them: only a yellow card, for me.

The most bizarre thing about the Chelsea game (well, apart from the hosts being carved open on the counter-attack by Ipswich twice in the first twenty-odd minutes!!) was the linesman flagging an offside against Ipswich's second goal, when no-one had been anywhere near offside (presumably he'd been looking at the wrong Chelsea defender, failing to notice that the one on the far side had been a yard or so deeper?); and then, even more bizarrely, it took VAR an agonisingly long time - 2 or 3 minutes - to correct this very obvious error. It would seem there are still some teething problems with the new SAO system, or with how it's being used. So, that was an assist and a goal for right-back Ben Johnson - how many people own him??  (1.7%!! I'm surprised it's that many.)  Chelsea were oddly toothless, apart from a lively start (the momentum was with them for 15 or 20 minutes, after Jackson smashed a shot against the near-post in the opening minute) and a spell of pressure chasing the win at the end (when Cole Palmer had his obligatory near-miss - fingertipped to safety by Alex Palmer - and Enzo Fernandes saw a fierce drive clawed away one-handed by the excellent Ipswich keeper in the closing minutes); it took two goals-out-of-nothing - a fast break down the wing from Madueke to set up Cucurella in the opening seconds after the restart (which somehow got credited as an own-goal??), and a brilliant solo effort from Sancho - to salvage a draw (and George Hirst had come within inches of putting the visitors 3-1 ahead). There is something still very not right about Chelsea.

West Ham produced a much better performance than they have for weeks, and provided Liverpool with quite a stern test - but the champions-elect still ultimately breezed through fairly comfortably. If things had just broken a bit more kindly for them, they could easily have won by a landslide: Luis Diaz might have had a hattrick, Macallister might have had 4 or 5, and Salah curled an early effort inches wide - which would probably won 'Goal of the Season' had it gone in. And VAR somehow decided to let James Ward-Prowse off for a particularly blatant handball in the penalty area (yes, the ball was coming to him very fast, but his arm was fully extended... and moving towards the ball, with apparent intent...).  As it was, they needed several outstanding saves from Alisson to protect a slender lead, and a late header from Van Dijk to clinch it (to atone for his dreadful own-goal a little earlier; a major piece of 'luck' in itself - he doesn't score very many goals, but here he managed to get one for both sides within the space of 3 minutes??!!). And even then, Fullkrug still gave the home fans palpitations when he looped a header against the crossbar in the dying seconds.

Oh dear, oh dear - Ange Postecoglou has been using his long injury-list as his excuse all season; but a lot of his key men are back now,.... and Spurs are playing worse than ever. Nicking consolatory goals through Tels and Richarlison - to almost get back in the game - really flattered them excessively; in truth, they were absolutely bulldozered at Molyneux, and provided one of the most shambolic defensive performances we've seen from any team all season. Things might have been even worse if the in-form Strand Larsen hadn't contrived to screw an effort a quarter-of-an-inch wide of an open goal.... but we can let him off for that one, as he was lying on his back at the time! If Spurs can't pull off a win against Frankfurt on Thursday to progress to the Europa League semi-finals, I imagine Ange will be leaving the club next weekend. Losing so comprehensively, to a club below you in the table, who were until recently deep in the relegation mire - that, I think, is a humiliation too far for the long-suffering Spurs fans. [Interestingly, I can't seem to find any current odds on Ange getting the sack - which may suggest that it's become such an overwhelmingly popular punt that the bookies aren't accepting the bet any more?! The Sun was apparently quoting him as being only 15/8 a week ago; strange, since he's been odds-on for three or four months now! If I could find odds like that anywhere, I'd definitely risk a fair wedge of money on it! The only thing that's saved Ange this long is the Spurs' fanbase's passionate dislike of their Chairman, Daniel Levy, who most of them want to blame for the team's dismal performances - rather than the flailing manager.]

Was Ruben Amorim being brutal or compassionate in dropping Andre Onana this week? The United keeper had been coming in for a fair bit of stick in recent weeks already, but might well be having a bit of an emotional implosion after the flak he received for his two costly fumbles in the Europa League game this week, His sudden omission is a blow to the nearly 5.5% of FPL managers that still own him (and he's actually not a terrible choice: he's still the 5th highest-returning keeper for the season; joint 4th for clean sheets, joint 7th for number of 'saves' points - and he picked up a massive 11 FPL points in last week's derby game!!). His deputy Altay Bayindir looked pretty sharp in protecting the goal, but often got rattled by Newcastle's relentless high pressing - and ended up giving the ball away to gift Guimaraes a fourth goal; that leaves quite the selection conundrum for next week! Manchester had started quite brightly, though, with Zirkzee contriving an early chance from a delightful quick interchange on the edge of the box with Bruno Fernandes that would have been a 'Goal of the Season' contender - but for a superb save from Nick Pope. Anthony Gordon was well enough to come on for the last 12 minutes; so the 8% who own him will be desperately hoping he can now start against Palace on Wednesday.

There don't seem to have been any wildly dubious refereeing calls in the Monday night game at Bournemouth, although there was some argument about whether Senesi should have received a straight red card for a high challenge on Andersen. The home side appeared completely dominant, despite only winning by Semenyo's solitary  goal in the opening minute (which must have come as a mighty relief to the 7.5% of managers who still - unfathomably - own him, despite his having only produced 2 assists and ZERO goals in the last 10 matches); Evanilson crashed a close-range shot against the underside of the crossbar, and Leno had to make two very sharp saves. Curiously, Kepa at the other end was credited with 7 saves, which - in a relatively 'uneventful' game - was enough to secure him maximum bonus points as well (he's only owned by 2..9%; surprisingly low, given his excellent recent form and fairly easy closing run of fixtures; but I'd bet almost all of his owners left him on the bench this week - ouch!); however, only ONE of those saves made it into the club's highlights reel for the game - and that was a relatively rroutine stop, from a long-range curler from Iwobi. Meanwhile, the outstanding Alex Scott got no love from the BPS at all...

Palace completely forgot to turn up for their second fixture of the week at Newcastle, surely their worst performance of the season. The scoreline wasn't at all flattering to Newcastle, as it was really one-way traffic, and they might have scored twice as many - although Isak kept failing to convert chances, Henderson pull off one superb one-handed save early on, and the home side needed a fair slice of luck to get things rolling: Murphy's opener was clearly a mishit cross rather than a shot, and Barnes's second needed a huge deflection off the unfortunate Guehi to slip past the keeper. The only moment of mild controversy came from the penalty decision - which was a tough call to make since VAR appeared to have only one view of the incident.... in which the contact with Richards was obscured by another Newcastle defender in front of him jumping for the ball. Given that the Palace man was laid out by the impact, I think the penalty award was probably fair enough - although we usually see keepers able to get away with clattering people in order to get to the ball... even if they don't actually get to the ball; and here, Pope did. So, a bit of an odd one: if it wasn't deliberate, it shouldn't have been a penalty; but if it was, he surely should have been sent off for it. As it turned out, the penalty award didn't matter, since Eze claimed the prize for The Worst Penalty Kick of the Season; really, one questions if Pope should even be credited with a 'save' for this, since Eze essentually just passed the ball to him. A cruel blow for Eze's FPL owners; and a huge piece of unearned good fortune for Pope's!!

A particularly topsy-turvy week then: a week of some great individual performances.... and some really poor team ones! A LOT of goals (41!), but most of them from fairly unexpected sources... After the weekend games, the 'Team of the Week' was one of the most eccentric collections we've seen all season, containing no-one that anyone would own - apart from Van Dijk and Air-Nouri, and maybe Joao Pedro; that didn't change much with the final two games,... except that suddenly 5 Newcastle players muscled their way into the lineup! 3 'penalty saves' is a very rare eventuality as well (though really all of them were down to utterly appalling spot-kicks rather than any great heroics from the keepers). VAR missed 3 fairly obvious penalties, yet 2 were awarded wrongly to Villa; while Senesi, Norgaard, and perhaps Pope were lucky to escape sendings-off, and Branthwaite definitely should have been dismissed; and a few unreasonably tight offside calls again...

This one's a 7 out of 10 kind of week on the 'Luck-o-Meter', with a few key decisions that were certainly highly questionable, if not wrong, and some ding-dong games, unexpected results. Not the worst refereeing week we've seen; but very far from the best, either.

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  Most people will have played the dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip by now; but if you haven't.... it's not too late to refuse to do so! I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season when it was introduced in GW23. [I worry that, if people don't protest vociferously about it, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you didn't feel able to join me in such an emphatic gesture, I hope you at least thought about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip (and still might refuse, if you've kept it till the last few gameweeks of the season).

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip