Sunday, November 10, 2024

GW11 - What did we learn?

A photograph of Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola in the dugout - in despairing mood, eyes closed, hands on the side of his head

Schadenfreude abounds as Pep slumps to a first-time-ever fourth successive defeat... (Though note, it's only his second straight loss in the EPL, and City are still sitting comfortably second in the table.... but allowing Liverpool to pull out a bit of a lead on them.)  Injuries, of course, are a large part of the problem - especially with the absence of a triad of absolutely key players, Rodri, DeBruyne, and Dias. But a lot of the rest of the team look strangely flat at the moment. Still, the result might have gone very differently if things had broken more kindly for them; they absolutely dominated the first half, registering an xG of nearly 2 in the opening 45 minutes (and still managed a couple of very good chances, but again unconverted, in the second half); if they'd managed to put 1 or 2 more goals on the board, there probably would have been no way back for Brighton. But this was the proverbial 'game of two halves', and Fabian Hurzeler deserves huge credit for the way he reorganized and revitalized his team during the half-time break: the introduction of the more combative and proactive Baleba at the break was the catalyst for a complete turnaround in the game. And Joao Pedro's return from a long injury absence for the last 25 minutes was also sensational. Although, really, just about every Brighton player was absolutely outstanding in this game, and if they can continue in this kind of form, they'll be worthy of a finish in the top six... maybe even the top four.

Bournemouth, as I'd feared, couldn't maintain the energy levels they'd shown against City last week; and there may be an argument that the chemistry of the team was unnecessarily disturbed by reverting to Kepa in goal, rather than staying with Travers, who has been in inspirational form in the last two games. Although I wouldn't necessarily hold Kepa to blame for the defeat - not for the goals, anyway (he did flap at aerial balls rather alarmingly two or three times...). I haven't seen Brentford's xG, but I imagine it might well have been less than 1.0; they just somehow came up 3 absolutely perfect finishes out of nothing. The result felt unjust for Bournemouth, who absolutely dominated the first half, and could have put the game to bed if they'd just been a bit more incisive in the final third. Brentford came into it more strongly after the break, and the game devolved into a ding-dong end-to-end affair; but still Bournemouth mostly felt like the more likely to score. But again - just astonishing finishing from Brentford! I had been sceptical about Wissa's value when he returned from injury, but his form in these last few games has been excellent. Damsgaard, after long injury woes, is emerging as a key playmaker for Brentford too. They are looking like they could challenge for the fringes of the top third - if only they could stop leaking goals so profusely! (Although, with this woefully flakey defence, and an extremely tough run of fixtures in December, they could very well be down in the bottom three at the start of the New Year.)

Crystal Palace, predictably, lacked much incisiveness going forward, in the continued absence of Eze (and Wharton, and Nketiah...); but they seemed to lack energy and organization everywhere on the pitch, and were played through far too easily. Fulham are a thrilling counter-attacking side, and were unlucky to have had two further goals dubiously chalked off; but they do look to be also lacking that little bit of a cutting-edge in the final third (Raul's hot streak appears to have run its course?). They can't rely on Smith Rowe and Wilson for all their goals; they need to start seeing more from Iwobi, Nelson, Traore, etc.,... and maybe Muniz again.

The Liverpool juggernaut rumbles on relentlessly. Emery whinges about a couple of possible penalties rather peremptorily denied to his side - but they were both 50/50 calls, and he would have been incredibly fortunate to win them both. And winning one probably wouldn't have made much difference, since Villa scarcely created a decent chance all game. But for Darwin Nunez's wayward finishing, Liverpool could have won this by 3 or 4 goals. (And I, for one, was glad to see Luis Diaz restored to his rightful starting place on the left flank, ahead of Cody Gakpo.)

West Ham started brightly, but quickly faded into mediocrity - playing an ubelievable number of sloppy balls. They still looked to have done just enough to deserve the win, though, with Pickford needing to pull off a few outstanding saves, and Summerville hitting the foot of the post late on. It wasn't surprising that Everton, without their creative lynchpin, McNeil, were a bit lifeless. And the reintroduced Branthwaite still looks half-a-yard off full match fitness. But really, both of these sides desperately need a forward. It is rather baffling that Lopategui doesn't make more use of Ings, rather than not-a-centre-forward Antonio, and that Dyche continues to prefer the woefully lacking-in-confidence Calvert-Lewin rather than moving the much sharper-looking Ndiaye or Beto up front.

I'm happy for Wolves to have finally broken their winless run. But they really failed to capitalise on their early breakthough from Sarabia, and the result ultimately felt unfair to Southampton (who are much better defensively than most people realise, at least in possession, but have a real problem scoring goals of their own). The disallowing of Manning's goal was a little harsh (although you can at least see why the decision was reached).  Cunha's goal - brilliant though it was - clearly should have been disallowed for two egregious fouls on Southampton players in the middle of the pitch preceding it. Although Cunha's in electrifying form, neither of these teams are currently looking good enough to cause that much trouble to any decent side, and both must still be relegation favourites.


Arguably another coaching masterclass from Eddie Howe here, though a more low-key one than the number he did on Arsenal last week. Newcastle for a while have struggled with poor away form; while Forest's City Ground has acquired one of the most daunting reputations in the League for the lift its team gets from its fanatical home support. And Newcastle started the game a bit flat, conceded the first goal; this is a match that could very easily have got away from them. But they were so much better in the second half, and really began to dominate, to look more like the home side. They found ways to disrupt Forest's usual development down the flanks, leaving Chris Wood - for just about the first time this season - completely starved of service. Even so, it was a bit puzzling that Nuno decided to take off his two most dangerous creative players, Gibbs-White and Hudson-Odoi, shy of the hour; if those changes had made Forest stronger defensively, you could see their value; but they conceded the two decisive goals after this. I've had a feeling for a while that Forest's impressive run may be about to run out of steam - particularly with the tougher run of fixtures they face from now till Christmas. Newcastle, on the other hand, are definitely getting back into their groove again.

I couldn't really see much of how the Manchester United v Leicester game went down in the BBC's very brief highlights. It looks like van Nistelrooy has got United playing in a much more cohesive and confident way than they usually did under Ten Hag; and new signing Ugarte is bedding in well, adding some needed steel to their midfield. The second goal looked to me like it hit Bruno's hand; if it did, then it should be no-goal; if it didn't, then it should be his goal, not an own-goal; the FA's decisions on these things can be quite baffling. Leicester were again thoroughly non-descript; I haven't seen anything about them to impress me this season (although, admittedly, I don't think I've yet watched a full game featiuring them). And, for me, they look like the weakest of the six sides in the relegation battle, not the best, as the current standings mystifyingly suggest.

I am feeling ever-so-slightly smug about having widely predicted on FPL forums this weekend that... Spurs were not showing the kind of form to be able to win any game easily; Solanke and Son were therefore not promising picks for the captaincy this week; and Ipswich are much better than most people think, and might even have a chance of winning this match. But damn, even I was surprised by how well the East Anglian team played here; their disicipline, focus, and intensity were all exemplary - keeping their shape superbly at all times, breaking very quickly on the counter, smothering Spurs with the eagerness of their pressing. And I lost count of the number of headed clearances they made from their own box; O'Shea and Tuanzebe, in particular, were absolutely magnificent. And you could see that every player had a head-on-a-swivel, constantly looking all around for danger, continously communicating with nearby teammates to assign marking responsibilities - it was like a perfect defensive 'How to...' coaching video (except for the moment when they fell asleep on the neat Spurs corner routine that allowed Betancur a free header to pull a goal back). Muric, who has worried me with his erratic play in recent weeks, was looking much better here; although he still had a few wobbly moments when playing the ball out of his feet, he looked confident and dependable whenever called upon to make a stop; and what especially impressed me was his claiming of high balls; again and again he'd pluck one effortlessly out of the air as if he had super-glue on his gloves. (Robert Sanchez should be made to watch videos of these catches for a couple of hours a day....)

The match had a Cup-tie intensity, with a lot of very physical - though also mostly just about fair, and certainly not dirty - challenges flying in. But Ipswich had a massive edge over Spurs in the amount of energy and aggression and desire they were showing. I suppose the match might have turned out very differently if Brennan Johnson hadn't spurned that early chance to toe-poke home a chance at the far post; but Ipswich really looked very well-deserved winners here. And Spurs have all sorts of problems. I've said a few times before in this series that, even when they're playing well, they look to me nothing more than an upper mid-table side who are slightly over-performing; when, as here, they play poorly, they look like a lower mid-table side. Something is not right with them this year; and I'm not sure that Ange knows how to fix it - not with the players that he's currently got.

It was hardly surprising that Chelsea and Arsenal largely cancelled each other out; but, for a game of few chances and goals, it was very entertaining. I was slightly surprised to see that Chelsea recorded the better xG for the game; I suppose Madueke and Gusto squandering perfect crosses from Neto early on was responsible for that; 'better' chances, though not quite so many of them. Both teams, actually, were a bit careless in the final third, with players repeatedly failing to find the right finish for a good chance. Arsenal, able to field their 'best eleven' for the first time since early in the season, will be very dangerous again now; the returning Martin Odegaard looked fit and sharp, immediately back to his terrifying best. 

Palmer too, had an excellent game - at least, when he could get on the ball, though that wasn't nearly as much as we'd like, especially in the first half (Partey did a pretty good job of closing him down). The decision to deploy him mainly on the left side was curious, quirky (presumably the thinking was that he'd find more space behind Odegaard... but that didn't really work out; and he's obviously more comfortable playing off the right) - and probably limited his impact somewhat. But the FPL Sheep will no doubt be griping that he didn't return any Fantasy points here; they never seem to learn that you can play well without producing for FPL (and you can sometimes get good Fantasy points without playing well!), And yes, although he otherwise had quite a good game, Sanchez definitely left far too much of a gap at his near post, giving Martinelli an irresistible invitation to lash in the opening goal on that side. I continue to think that Sanchez is a bit of a liability (he's not good at claiming balls in the air, either; and he's absolutely terrible with the ball at his feet), and needs to be replaced as soon as possible if Chelsea are to successfully press home their drive for a top four finish. Marc Cucurella had an absolute monster of a game, deservedly winning the 'Man of the Match' trophy. It is sadly indicative of the enormous shortcomings of FPL's bonus allocations that the BPS ranked him only eighth!


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